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BACKGROUND: The fifth Millennium Development Goal (MDG 5) established the goal of a 75% reduction in the maternal mortality ratio (MMR; number of maternal deaths per 100,000 livebirths) between 1990 and 2015. We aimed to measure levels and track trends in maternal mortality, the key causes contributing to maternal death, and timing of maternal death with respect to delivery.METHODS: We used robust statistical methods including the Cause of Death Ensemble model (CODEm) to analyse a database of data for 7065 site-years and estimate the number of maternal deaths from all causes in 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. We estimated the number of pregnancy-related deaths caused by HIV on the basis of a systematic review of the relative risk of dying during pregnancy for HIV-positive women compared with HIV-negative women. We also estimated the fraction of these deaths aggravated by pregnancy on the basis of a systematic review. To estimate the numbers of maternal deaths due to nine different causes, we identified 61 sources from a systematic review and 943 site-years of vital registration data. We also did a systematic review of reports about the timing of maternal death, identifying 142 sources to use in our analysis. We developed estimates for each country for 1990-2013 using Bayesian meta-regression. We estimated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all values.FINDINGS: 292,982 (95% UI 261,017-327,792) maternal deaths occurred in 2013, compared with 376,034 (343,483-407,574) in 1990. The global annual rate of change in the MMR was -0·3% (-1·1 to 0·6) from 1990 to 2003, and -2·7% (-3·9 to -1·5) from 2003 to 2013, with evidence of continued acceleration. MMRs reduced consistently in south, east, and southeast Asia between 1990 and 2013, but maternal deaths increased in much of sub-Saharan Africa during the 1990s. 2070 (1290-2866) maternal deaths were related to HIV in 2013, 0·4% (0·2-0·6) of the global total. MMR was highest in the oldest age groups in both 1990 and 2013. In 2013, most deaths occurred intrapartum or postpartum. Causes varied by region and between 1990 and 2013. We recorded substantial variation in the MMR by country in 2013, from 956·8 (685·1-1262·8) in South Sudan to 2·4 (1·6-3·6) in Iceland.INTERPRETATION: Global rates of change suggest that only 16 countries will achieve the MDG 5 target by 2015. Accelerated reductions since the Millennium Declaration in 2000 coincide with increased development assistance for maternal, newborn, and child health. Setting of targets and associated interventions for after 2015 will need careful consideration of regions that are making slow progress, such as west and central Africa.FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

BACKGROUND: The primary biomarkers used to define CKD are serum creatinine and albuminuria. These biomarkers have directed focus on the filtration and barrier functions of the kidney glomerulus even though albuminuria results from tubule dysfunction as well. Given that proximal tubules make up ∼90% of kidney cortical mass, we evaluated whether a sensitive and specific marker of proximal tubule injury, urinary kidney injury molecule-1 (KIM-1), is elevated in individuals with CKD or with risk factors for CKD. METHODS: We measured urinary KIM-1 in participants of five cohort studies from the USA and Sweden. Participants had a wide range of kidney function and were racially and ethnically diverse. Multivariable linear regression models were used to test the association of urinary KIM-1 with demographic, clinical and laboratory values. RESULTS: In pooled, multivariable-adjusted analyses, log-transformed, creatinine-normalized urinary KIM-1 levels were higher in those with lower eGFR {β = -0.03 per 10 mL/min/1.73 m(2) [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.05 to -0.02]} and greater albuminuria [β = 0.16 per unit of log albumin:creatinine ratio (95% CI 0.15-0.17)]. Urinary KIM-1 levels were higher in current smokers, lower in blacks than nonblacks and lower in users versus nonusers of angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors and angiotensin receptor blockers. CONCLUSION: Proximal tubule injury appears to be an integral and measurable element of multiple stages of CKD.

Background and aims Both high and low fasting glucose has been associated with an increased mortality among individuals without diabetes. This J-shaped association has also been shown for HbA1c in relation to all-cause mortality. High fructosamine is associated with increased mortality. In this study we aim to evaluate if low fructosamine is also associated with increased mortality in non-diabetic subjects. Methods and results We included 215,011 subjects from the AMORIS cohort undergoing occupational health screening or primary care in Stockholm, Sweden. Cause specific mortality was obtained from the Swedish Cause-of-Death Register by record linkage. Hazard ratios for the lowest decile of fructosamine were estimated by Cox regression for all-cause (n = 41,388 deaths) and cause-specific mortality during 25 years of follow-up. We observed gradually increased mortality with lower fructosamine in a large segment of the population. In the lowest decile of fructosamine the sex, age, social class and calendar adjusted hazard ratio was 1.20 (95% CI; 1.18–1.27) compared to deciles 2–9. This increased mortality was attenuated after adjustment for six other biomarkers (HR = 1.11 (95% CI; 1.07–1.15)). Haptoglobin, an indicator of chronic inflammation, made the greatest difference in the point estimate. In sensitivity analyses we found an association between low fructosamine and smoking and adjustment for smoking further attenuated the association between low fructosamine and mortality. Conclusion Low levels of fructosamine in individuals without diabetes were found to be associated with increased mortality. Smoking and chronic inflammation seem to at least partially explain this association but an independent contribution by low fructosamine cannot be excluded.

Objective To study the risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated in primary health care with warfarin or acetylsalicylic acid (ASA, aspirin). Methods The study population included subjects (n=12,283) 45years or older diagnosed with AF who were treated in 75 primary care centres in Sweden between 2001 and 2007. MI was defined as a hospital stay for MI during 2001 through 2010 registered in the Swedish Patient Register. Associations between warfarin or ASA treatment and incident MI were explored using Cox regression analysis, by estimating hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Adjustment was made for age, socio-economic factors and cardio-vascular co-morbidity. Results Persistent treatment ("per protocol" treatment) with warfarin alone was present among 32.4% of women and 37.4% of men, and with ASA alone among 30.0% of women and 28.1% of men. The fully adjusted HRs for MI, compared to those with no antithrombotic treatment, with warfarin treatment for women were 0.26 (95% CI 0.16–0.41) and for men 0.28 (95% CI 0.20–0.39); and the corresponding HRs for those treated with ASA were for women 0.57 (95% CI 0.37–0.87), and for men 0.44 95% CI (0.31–0.63). The fully adjusted HR for MI when comparing patients with warfarin treatment to those with ASA treatment was for women 0.46 (95% CI 0.27–0.80), and for men 0.58 (95% CI 0.38–0.89). Conclusions Warfarin seems to prevent MI among AF patients in a primary healthcare setting, which emphasizes the importance of persistent anticoagulant treatment in those patients.

Unhealthy dietary fats are associated with faster kidney function decline. The cell membrane composition of phospholipid fatty acids (FAs) is a determinant of membrane fluidity and rheological properties. These properties, which have been linked to kidney damage, are thought to be reflected by the lipophilic index (LI). We prospectively investigated the associations of LI with kidney function and its decline.Observational study from the Prospective Investigation of Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors including 975 men and women with plasma phospholipid FAs composition and cystatin-C estimate glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Of these, 780 attended re-examination after 5 years, and eGFR changes were assessed. Participants with a 5-year eGFR reduction ≥30% were considered chronic kidney disease (CKD) progressors (n = 198). LI was calculated as the sum of the products of the FA proportions with the respective FAs melting points. Blood rheology/viscosity measurements were performed in a random subsample of 559 subjects at baseline. Increased LI showed a statistically significant but overall weak association with blood, plasma viscosity (both Spearman rho = 0.16, p 0.01), and erythrocyte deformability (rho = -0.09, p 0.05). In cross-sectional analyses, LI associated with lower eGFR (regression coefficient 3.00 ml/min/1.73 mA high LI was associated with lower kidney function, kidney function decline, and CKD progression.

Background We have recently shown that being physically active (PA) counteracts, but not eliminates the increased risk of future cardiovascular disease in over-weight and obese subjects. To investigate this further, we studied the impact of being normal weight, overweight and obese on multiple markers of subclinical cardiovascular disease in relation to physical activity. Materials and Methods At age 70, 1016 subjects were investigated in the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) study. Being PA was defined as performing regular heavy exercise (self-reported). According to body mass index (BMI)/PA-groups, the participants were categorized as PA/normal weight (BMI

Background Apart from several established clinical risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF), a number of biomarkers have also been identified as potential risk factors for AF. None of these have so far been adopted in clinical practice. Objective To use a novel custom-made proteomics chip to discover new prognostic biomarkers for AF risk. Methods In two independent community-based cohorts (Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) study (978 participants without AF, mean age 70.1 years, 50% women, median follow-up 10.0 years) and Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) (n=725, mean age 77.5 years, median follow-up 7.9 years)), ninety-two plasma proteins were assessed at baseline by a proximity extension assay (PEA) chip. Of those, 85 proteins showed a call rate >70% in both cohorts. Results Thirteen proteins were related to incident AF in PIVUS (148 events) using a false discovery rate of 5%. Of those, five were replicated in ULSAM at nominal multivariable p value (123 events, N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP), fibroblast growth factor 23 (FGF-23), fatty acid-binding protein 4 (FABP4), growth differentiation factor 15 (GDF-15) and interleukin-6 (IL-6)). Of those, NT-pro-BNP and FGF-23 were also associated with AF after adjusting for established AF risk factors. In a prespecified secondary analysis pooling the two data sets, T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain 1 (TIM-1) and adrenomedullin (AM) were also significantly related to incident AF in addition to the aforementioned five proteins (Bonferroni-adjustment). The addition of NT-pro-BNP to a model with established risk factors increased the C-statistic from 0.605 to 0.676 (p Conclusions Using a novel proteomics approach, we confirmed the previously reported association between NT-pro-BNP, FGF-23, GDF-15 and incident AF, and also discovered four proteins (FABP4, IL-6, TIM-1 and AM) that could be of importance in the development of AF.

Background and aims Research suggests that the protease cathepsin L is causally involved in atherosclerosis. However, data on cathepsin L as a risk marker are lacking. Therefore, we investigated associations between circulating cathepsin L and cardiovascular mortality. Methods Two independent community-based cohorts were used: Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM); n = 776; mean age 77 years; baseline 1997–2001; 185 cardiovascular deaths during 9.7 years follow-up, and Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS); n = 993; 50% women; mean age 70 years; baseline 2001–2004; 42 cardiovascular deaths during 10.0 years follow-up. Results Higher serum cathepsin L was associated with an increased risk for cardiovascular mortality in age- and sex-adjusted models in both cohorts (ULSAM: hazard ratio (HR) for 1-standard deviation (SD) increase, 1.17 [95% CI, 1.01–1.34], p = 0.032 PIVUS: HR 1.35 [95% CI, 1.07–1.72], p = 0.013). When merging the cohorts, these associations were independent of inflammatory markers and cardiovascular risk factors, but non-significant adjusting for kidney function. Individuals with a combination of elevated cathepsin L and increased inflammation, kidney dysfunction, or prevalent cardiovascular disease had a markedly increased risk, while no increased risk was associated with elevated cathepsin L, in the absence of these disease states. Conclusions An association between higher serum cathepsin L and increased risk of cardiovascular mortality was found in two independent cohorts. Impaired kidney function appears to be an important moderator or mediator of these associations. Further studies are needed to delineate the underlying mechanisms and to evaluate whether the measurement of cathepsin L might have clinical utility.

Insulin resistance (IR) and impaired insulin secretion contribute to type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease. Both are associated with changes in the circulating metabolome, but causal directions have been difficult to disentangle. We combined untargeted plasma metabolomics by liquid chromatography/mass spectrometry in three non-diabetic cohorts with Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis to obtain new insights into early metabolic alterations in IR and impaired insulin secretion. In up to 910 elderly men we found associations of 52 metabolites with hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic clamp-measured IR and/or β-cell responsiveness (disposition index) during an oral glucose tolerance test. These implicated bile acid, glycerophospholipid and caffeine metabolism for IR and fatty acid biosynthesis for impaired insulin secretion. In MR analysis in two separate cohorts (n = 2,613) followed by replication in three independent studies profiled on different metabolomics platforms (n = 7,824 / 8,961 / 8,330), we discovered and replicated causal effects of IR on lower levels of palmitoleic acid and oleic acid. A trend for a causal effect of IR on higher levels of tyrosine reached significance only in meta-analysis. In one of the largest studies combining “gold standard” measures for insulin responsiveness with non-targeted metabolomics, we found distinct metabolic profiles related to IR or impaired insulin secretion. We speculate that the causal effects on monounsaturated fatty acid levels could explain parts of the raised cardiovascular disease risk in IR that is independent of diabetes development., Author Summary Impaired glucose homeostasis leads to diabetes and cardiovascular disease and has two main components: failure to secrete enough insulin from pancreatic β-cells and reduced insulin-stimulated cellular uptake of glucose and other nutrients in target tissues (insulin resistance, IR). We used metabolomics analysis in non-diabetic persons to measure a non-selective range of small molecules including amino acids, lipids, and sugars. Pathway analysis highlighted distinct metabolic pathways linked to IR (e.g. bile acid production) and impaired insulin secretion (fatty acid biosynthesis), but causal directions remained unclear. Mendelian Randomization (MR) analysis can test for causal effects in observational studies in the absence of randomized controlled trials. Using MR analysis in up to four large independent studies, we found evidence that IR causes a decrease in levels of the main endogenous monounsaturated fatty acids palmitoleic acid and oleic acid, as well as suggestive evidence for higher levels of the amino acid tyrosine. We provide a possible explanation for parts of the diabetes-independent risk of cardiovascular disease in persons with IR.

Objective. Our aim was to study the risk of a first ischaemic stroke (IS) in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) treated in primary healthcare. Design. The study population included all adults (n = 11,517), 45 years and older diagnosed with AF, from 75 primary care centres in Sweden between 2001 and 2007. IS was defined as a hospital care event of stroke between 2001 and 2010. Association between incident stroke and warfarin treatment was explored using Cox regression analysis, with hazard ratios (HRs), and 95% confidence intervals (95%CIs). Adjustment was made for age, socioeconomic factors and co-morbidity. Results. Persistent treatment with warfarin was present among 33.7% of women and 40.0% among men. Persistent warfarin treatment, compared to no persistent treatment, was associated with a stroke preventing effect with fully adjusted HRs of 0.25 (95%CI 0.18–0.36) in women, and 0.25 (95%CI 0.19–0.32) in men. A CHA2DS2-VASc score of at least two among women, and three among men, was associated with a stroke risk exceeding 18% during a mean follow-up of 5.4 years. Risk of haemorrhagic stroke was not increased. Conclusions. Warfarin is effective in preventing stroke in AF patients in primary healthcare.

OBJECTIVE: Higher levels of the novel inflammatory marker pentraxin 3 (PTX3) predict cardiovascular mortality in patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Yet, whether PTX3 predicts worsening of kidney function has been less well studied. We therefore investigated the associations between PTX3 levels, kidney disease measures and CKD incidence. METHODS: Cross-sectional associations between serum PTX3 levels, urinary albumin/creatinine ratio (ACR) and cystatin C-estimated glomerular filtration rate (GFR) were assessed in two independent community-based cohorts of elderly subjects: the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS, n = 768, 51% women, mean age 75 years) and the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM, n = 651, mean age 77 years). The longitudinal association between PTX3 level at baseline and incident CKD (GFR

Aims/hypothesis: Soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) contribute to experimental diabetic kidney disease, a condition with substantially increased cardiovascular risk when present in patients. Therefore, we aimed to explore the levels of sTNFRs, and their association with prevalent kidney disease, incident cardiovascular disease, and risk of mortality independently of baseline kidney function and microalbuminuria in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes. In pre-defined secondary analyses we also investigated whether the sTNFRs predict adverse outcome in the absence of diabetic kidney disease. Methods: The CARDIPP study, a cohort study of 607 diabetes patients [mean age 61 years, 44 % women, 45 cardiovascular events (fatal/non-fatal myocardial infarction or stroke) and 44 deaths during follow-up (mean 7.6 years)] was used. Results: Higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 were associated with higher odds of prevalent kidney disease [odd ratio (OR) per standard deviation (SD) increase 1.60, 95 % confidence interval (CI) 1.32-1.93, p < 0.001 and OR 1.54, 95 % CI 1.21-1.97, p = 0.001, respectively]. In Cox regression models adjusting for age, sex, glomerular filtration rate and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, higher sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 predicted incident cardiovascular events [hazard ratio (HR) per SD increase, 1.66, 95 % CI 1.29-2.174, p < 0.001 and HR 1.47, 95 % CI 1.13-1.91, p = 0.004, respectively]. Results were similar in separate models with adjustments for inflammatory markers, HbA1c, or established cardiovascular risk factors, or when participants with diabetic kidney disease at baseline were excluded (p < 0.01 for all). Both sTNFRs were associated with mortality. Conclusions/Interpretations: Higher circulating sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 are associated with diabetic kidney disease, and predicts incident cardiovascular disease and mortality independently of microalbuminuria and kidney function, even in those without kidney disease. Our findings support the clinical utility of sTNFRs as prognostic markers in type 2 diabetes. Funding Agencies|Swedish Research Council; Swedish Heart-Lung foundation; Thureus foundation; Marianne and Marcus Wallenberg Foundation; Dalarna University; Uppsala University

BACKGROUND: Established in 2000, Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG4) catalysed extraordinary political, financial, and social commitments to reduce under-5 mortality by two-thirds between 1990 and 2015. At the country level, the pace of progress in improving child survival has varied markedly, highlighting a crucial need to further examine potential drivers of accelerated or slowed decreases in child mortality. The Global Burden of Disease 2015 Study (GBD 2015) provides an analytical framework to comprehensively assess these trends for under-5 mortality, age-specific and cause-specific mortality among children under 5 years, and stillbirths by geography over time. METHODS: Drawing from analytical approaches developed and refined in previous iterations of the GBD study, we generated updated estimates of child mortality by age group (neonatal, post-neonatal, ages 1-4 years, and under 5) for 195 countries and territories and selected subnational geographies, from 1980-2015. We also estimated numbers and rates of stillbirths for these geographies and years. Gaussian process regression with data source adjustments for sampling and non-sampling bias was applied to synthesise input data for under-5 mortality for each geography. Age-specific mortality estimates were generated through a two-stage age-sex splitting process, and stillbirth estimates were produced with a mixed-effects model, which accounted for variable stillbirth definitions and data source-specific biases. For GBD 2015, we did a series of novel analyses to systematically quantify the drivers of trends in child mortality across geographies. First, we assessed observed and expected levels and annualised rates of decrease for under-5 mortality and stillbirths as they related to the Soci-demographic Index (SDI). Second, we examined the ratio of recorded and expected levels of child mortality, on the basis of SDI, across geographies, as well as differences in recorded and expected annualised rates of change for under-5 mortality. Third, we analysed levels and cause compositions of under-5 mortality, across time and geographies, as they related to rising SDI. Finally, we decomposed the changes in under-5 mortality to changes in SDI at the global level, as well as changes in leading causes of under-5 deaths for countries and territories. We documented each step of the GBD 2015 child mortality estimation process, as well as data sources, in accordance with the Guidelines for Accurate and Transparent Health Estimates Reporting (GATHER). FINDINGS: Globally, 5·8 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 5·7-6·0) children younger than 5 years died in 2015, representing a 52·0% (95% UI 50·7-53·3) decrease in the number of under-5 deaths since 1990. Neonatal deaths and stillbirths fell at a slower pace since 1990, decreasing by 42·4% (41·3-43·6) to 2·6 million (2·6-2·7) neonatal deaths and 47·0% (35·1-57·0) to 2·1 million (1·8-2·5) stillbirths in 2015. Between 1990 and 2015, global under-5 mortality decreased at an annualised rate of decrease of 3·0% (2·6-3·3), falling short of the 4·4% annualised rate of decrease required to achieve MDG4. During this time, 58 countries met or exceeded the pace of progress required to meet MDG4. Between 2000, the year MDG4 was formally enacted, and 2015, 28 additional countries that did not achieve the 4·4% rate of decrease from 1990 met the MDG4 pace of decrease. However, absolute levels of under-5 mortality remained high in many countries, with 11 countries still recording rates exceeding 100 per 1000 livebirths in 2015. Marked decreases in under-5 deaths due to a number of communicable diseases, including lower respiratory infections, diarrhoeal diseases, measles, and malaria, accounted for much of the progress in lowering overall under-5 mortality in low-income countries. Compared with gains achieved for infectious diseases and nutritional deficiencies, the persisting toll of neonatal conditions and congenital anomalies on child survival became evident, especially in low-income and low-middle-income countries. We found sizeable heterogeneities in comparing observed and expected rates of under-5 mortality, as well as differences in observed and expected rates of change for under-5 mortality. At the global level, we recorded a divergence in observed and expected levels of under-5 mortality starting in 2000, with the observed trend falling much faster than what was expected based on SDI through 2015. Between 2000 and 2015, the world recorded 10·3 million fewer under-5 deaths than expected on the basis of improving SDI alone. INTERPRETATION: Gains in child survival have been large, widespread, and in many places in the world, faster than what was anticipated based on improving levels of development. Yet some countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, still had high rates of under-5 mortality in 2015. Unless these countries are able to accelerate reductions in child deaths at an extraordinary pace, their achievement of proposed SDG targets is unlikely. Improving the evidence base on drivers that might hasten the pace of progress for child survival, ranging from cost-effective intervention packages to innovative financing mechanisms, is vital to charting the pathways for ultimately ending preventable child deaths by 2030. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation. Erratum: Department of Error, The Lancet,Volume 389, Issue 10064, 2017, Page e1. DOI: 10.1016/S0140-6736(16)32608-3

Background The underlying mechanisms for the development of albuminuria and the increased cardiovascular risk in patients with elevated albuminuria levels are incompletely understood. We therefore investigated the associations between 80 cardiovascular proteins and the urinary albumin to creatinine ratio (ACR). Methods We used a discovery/replication approach in two independent community-based cohorts of elderly patients: the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men ( n = 662; mean age 78 years) and the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors ( n = 757; mean age 75 years; 51% women). A proteomic chip with a panel of 80 plasma proteins associated with different aspects of cardiovascular disease was analysed. In the discovery cohort, we used a false discovery rate of 5% to take into account the multiple statistical testing. Nominal p values were used in the replication. Results Higher levels of T-cell immunoglobulin mucin-1, placenta growth factor, growth/differentiation factor-15, urokinase plasminogen activator surface receptor and kallikrein-11 were robustly associated with a higher ACR in both cohorts in multivariable linear regression models adjusted for sex, established cardiovascular risk factors, antihypertensive treatment, prevalent cardiovascular disease and glomerular filtration rate ( p 0.02 for all). All associations were also significant in separate analyses of patients without diabetes. Conclusions We discovered and replicated associations between ACR and five cardiovascular proteins involved in tubular injury, atherosclerosis, endothelial function, heart failure, inflammation, glomerulosclerosis and podocyte injury. Our findings put forward multiplex proteomics as a promising approach to explore novel aspects of the complex detrimental interplay between kidney function and the cardiovascular system.

Aim Circulating endostatin, a biologically active derivate of collagen XVIII, is considered to be a marker of kidney disease and a risk factor for its related mortality. However, less is known of the role of endostatin in diabetes and the development of diabetic nephropathy. For this reason, our study investigated the associations between circulating endostatin and the prevalence and progression of kidney disease, and its mortality risk in patients with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods This was a cohort study of 607 patients with T2D (mean age: 61 years, 44% women). Estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), calculated using the Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration (CKD-EPI) creatinine equation, was used to assess the patients' kidney function decline and mortality. Results Of the total study cohort, 20 patients declined by ≥20% in eGFR over 4 years, and 44 died during the follow-up (mean duration: 6.7 years). At baseline, participants with diabetic nephropathy (defined as eGFR 2 ) and/or microalbuminuria [defined as a urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio (ACR)>3g/mol] had higher median levels of endostatin than those without nephropathy (62.7μg/L vs 57.4μg/L, respectively; P =0.031). In longitudinal analyses adjusted for age, gender, baseline eGFR and ACR, higher endostatin levels were associated with a higher risk of decline (≥20% in eGFR, OR per 1 SD increase: 1.73, 95% CI: 1.13–2.65) and a higher risk of mortality (HR per 1 SD increase: 1.57, 95% CI: 1.19–2.07). Conclusion In patients with T2D, circulating endostatin levels can predict the progression of kidney disease and mortality independently of established kidney disease markers. The clinical usefulness of endostatin as a risk marker in such patients merits further studies.

Aims. Despite rapid advancements and many new diabetes susceptibility loci found in the past few years, few genetic variants associated with insulin sensitivity have been described, potentially att ...

BACKGROUND: Decreased glomerular filtration rate (GFR) is an important cardiovascular risk factor, but estimated GFR (eGFR) may differ depending on whether it is based on creatinine or cystatin C. A combined creatinine/cystatin C equation has recently been shown to best estimate GFR; however, the benefits of using the combined equation for risk prediction in routine clinical care have been less studied. This study compares mortality risk prediction by eGFR using the combined creatinine/cystatin C equation (CKD-EPI), a sole creatinine equation (CKD-EPI) and a sole cystatin C equation (CAPA), respectively, using assays that are traceable to international calibrators.METHODS AND RESULTS: All patients analysed for both creatinine and cystatin C from the same blood sample tube (n = 13,054) during 2005-2007 in Uppsala University Hospital Laboratory were divided into eGFR risk categories>60, 30-60 and

Background: Diabetes mellitus and hypertension are risk factors for acute kidney injury (AKI). Whether estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urine albumin-creatinine ratio (ACR) remain risk factors for AKI in the presence and absence of these conditions is uncertain.Study Design: Meta-analysis of cohort studies.Setting & Population: 8 general-population (1,285,045 participants) and 5 chronic kidney disease (CKD; 79,519 participants) cohorts.Selection Criteria for Studies: Cohorts participating in the CKD Prognosis Consortium.Predictors: Diabetes and hypertension status, eGFR by the 2009 CKD Epidemiology Collaboration creatinine equation, urine ACR, and interactions.Outcome: Hospitalization with AKI, using Cox proportional hazards models to estimate HRs of AKI and random-effects meta-analysis to pool results.Results: During a mean follow-up of 4 years, there were 16,480 episodes of AKI in the general-population and 2,087 episodes in the CKD cohorts. Low eGFRs and high ACRs were associated with higher risks of AKI in individuals with or without diabetes and with or without hypertension. When compared to a common reference of eGFR of 80 mL/min/1.73 m(2) in nondiabetic patients, HRs for AKI were generally higher in diabetic patients at any level of eGFR. The same was true for diabetic patients at all levels of ACR compared with nondiabetic patients. The risk gradient for AKI with lower eGFRs was greater in those without diabetes than with diabetes, but similar with higher ACRs in those without versus with diabetes. Those with hypertension had a higher risk of AKI at eGFRs. 60 mL/min/1.73 m(2) than those without hypertension. However, risk gradients for AKI with both lower eGFRs and higher ACRs were greater for those without than with hypertension.Limitations: AKI identified by diagnostic code.Conclusions: Lower eGFRs and higher ACRs are associated with higher risks of AKI among individuals with or without either diabetes or hypertension. (C) 2015 by the National Kidney Foundation, Inc.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is characterized by chronic synovitis and articular cartilage destruction. Increased activities of cathepsin S and cathepsin L, two potent cysteine proteases, are thought to play a role in the pathogenesis of the irreversible articular cartilage destruction. Nevertheless, data regarding the potential importance of the cathepsins as circulating biomarkers in RA patients are limited.Subjects enrolled in this study are part of a larger study where patients from the three northern counties of Sweden diagnosed with early RA are followed in an ongoing prospective study. In total, 71 patients were included, along with 44 age- and sex-matched control subjects. Plasma levels of cathepsin S and L were analysed. Disease severity was assessed using the 28-joint count Disease Activity Score (DAS28).Plasma levels of cathepsin S and L were significantly increased in patients with RA compared to healthy controls (p0.05 for both). However, in the patients with RA, no association between the cathepsins and the severity of the disease, as characterized by DAS28, was observed (p0.51).Although circulating levels of cathepsin S and L were significantly increased in patients with recently diagnosed RA, our data do not support the notion that circulating levels of cathepsins are relevant biomarkers for disease severity.

Objectives. The results of experimental studies suggest that vitamin D deficiency activates the renin-angiotensin system and predisposes to hypertension. Results of previous epidemiological studies ...

Vitamin D status is known to be important for bone health but may also affect the development of several chronic diseases, including cancer and cardiovascular diseases, which are 2 major causes of death.We aimed to examine how vitamin D status relates to overall and cause-specific mortality.The Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, a community-based cohort of elderly men (mean age at baseline: 71 y; n = 1194), was used to investigate the association between plasma 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] and mortality. Total plasma 25(OH)D was determined with HPLC atmospheric pressure chemical ionization mass spectrometry. Proportional hazards regression was used to compute hazard ratios (HRs).During follow-up (median: 12.7 y), 584 (49%) participants died. There was a U-shaped association between vitamin D concentrations and total mortality. An approximately 50% higher total mortality rate was observed among men in the lowest 10% (46 nmol/L) and the highest 5% (98 nmol/L) of plasma 25(OH)D concentrations compared with intermediate concentrations. Cancer mortality was also higher at low plasma concentrations (multivariable-adjusted HR: 2.20; 95% CI: 1.44, 3.38) and at high concentrations (HR: 2.64; 95% CI: 1.46, 4.78). For cardiovascular death, only low (HR: 1.89; 95% CI: 1.21, 2.96) but not high (HR: 1.33; 95% CI: 0.69, 2.54) concentrations indicated higher risk.Both high and low concentrations of plasma 25(OH)D are associated with elevated risks of overall and cancer mortality. Low concentrations are associated with cardiovascular mortality.

OBJECTIVE The existence of an obese subgroup with a healthy metabolic profile and low diabetes risk has been proposed; yet long-term data are lacking. We aimed to investigate associations between combinations of BMI categories and metabolic syndrome and risk of type 2 diabetes in middle-aged men. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS At age 50, cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in 1,675 participants without diabetes in the community-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) study. According to BMI/metabolic syndrome status, they were categorized as normal weight (BMI 30 kg/m2) without metabolic syndrome (n = 28), and obese with metabolic syndrome (n = 60). We investigated the associations between BMI/metabolic syndrome categories at baseline and diabetes incidence. RESULTS After 20 years, 160 participants had developed diabetes. In logistic regression models adjusting for age, smoking, and physical activity, increased risks for diabetes were observed in the normal weight with metabolic syndrome (odds ratio 3.28 [95% CI] 1.38–7.81; P = 0.007), overweight without metabolic syndrome (3.49 [2.26–5.42]; P < 0.001), overweight with metabolic syndrome (7.77 [4.44–13.62]; P < 0.001), obese without metabolic syndrome (11.72 [4.88–28.16]; P < 0.001), and obese with metabolic syndrome (10.06 [5.19–19.51]; P < 0.001) categories compared with the normal weight without metabolic syndrome category. CONCLUSIONS Overweight or obese men without metabolic syndrome were at increased risk for diabetes. Our data provide further evidence that overweight and obesity in the absence of the metabolic syndrome should not be considered a harmless condition.

Elevated pregnancy-associated plasma protein A (PAPP-A) levels are associated with increased risk of death in ischaemic heart disease as well as in haemodialysis patients. Previous research indicates that the prognostic value of PAPP-A may be stronger in patients with concomitant diabetes mellitus or signs of inflammation. We studied the association between PAPP-A and outcomes in prevalent haemodialysis patients and hypothesized that diabetes mellitus and inflammation status act as effect modifiers.Circulating PAPP-A levels were quantified using ELISA. Cox proportional hazards and quantile regression models were used for associations between PAPP-A and mortality. PAPP-A levels were log-transformed for Normality.During 60-month follow-up, 37 (40%) of the 92 participants died. Higher PAPP-A was associated with increased risk of mortality in unadjusted analysis (HR per SD = 1.4, 95% CI = 1-1.9, P = .03) and when adjusted for confounders and cardiovascular risk factors (HR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.18-2.73, P = .006). An interaction between PAPP-A levels and diabetes mellitus on mortality was found (HR for the multiplicative interaction term = 2.74 95% CI = 1.02-7.37, P = .05). In a quantile regression adjusted for age and sex, one SD increase in PAPP-A was associated with 22 months shorter estimated time until 25% of the patients died (95% CI -35 to -9.1 months).Increased PAPP-A levels are associated with higher all-cause mortality in prevalent haemodialysis patients with concomitant diabetes mellitus.

Context: Blood levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] is the generally accepted indicator of vitamin D status, but no universal reference level has been reached. Objective: The objective of the study was to determine the threshold at which low plasma 25(OH)D levels are associated with fractures in elderly men and clarify the importance of low levels on total fracture burden. Design and Participants: In the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, a population-based cohort (mean age, 71 yr, n = 1194), we examined the relationship between 25(OH)D and risk for fracture. Plasma 25(OH)D levels were measured with high-pressure liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry. Setting: The study was conducted in the municipality of Uppsala in Sweden, a country with a high fracture incidence. Main Outcome Measure: Time to fracture was measured. Results: During follow-up (median 11 yr), 309 of the participants (26%) sustained a fracture. 25(OH)D levels below 40 nmol/liter, which corresponded to the fifth percentile of 25(OH)D, were associated with a modestly increased risk for fracture, multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio 1.65 (95% confidence interval 1.09–2.49). No risk difference was detected above this level. Approximately 3% of the fractures were attributable to low 25(OH)D levels in this population. Conclusions: Vitamin D insufficiency is not a major cause of fractures in community-dwelling elderly men in Sweden. Despite the fact that cutaneous synthesis of previtamin D during the winter season is undetectable at this northern latitude of 60°, only one in 20 had 25(OH)D levels below 40 nmol/liter, the threshold at which the risk for fracture started to increase. Genetic adaptations to limited UV light may be an explanation for our findings.

To investigate the relationships of serum fatty acid (FA) composition and estimated desaturase activities with the liver fat marker alanine aminotransferase (ALT).546 Swedish elderly men of a population-based cohort participated in this cross-sectional study. FA composition was assessed in serum cholesterol esters to determine dietary fat quality (e.g. linoleic) and desaturation products (e.g. dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid). Desaturase indices, including stearoyl coenzymeA desaturase-1 (SCD-1), were calculated by FA product-to-precursor ratios.In linear regression analyses adjusting for lifestyle, abdominal obesity and insulin sensitivity, the dietary biomarker linoleic acid (n-6), but not n-3 FAs, was inversely related to ALT. Desaturation products including palmitoleic, oleic, gamma-linolenic and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acids, and Delta6-desaturase and SCD-1 indices were directly related to ALT (all p0.05). After further adjustment for factors previously linked to fatty liver (i.e. serum lipids, adiponectin concentrations), SCD-1 index (p=0.004) and insulin resistance (p0.0001) were independent determinants of ALT activity, whereas waist circumference, triglycerides, non-esterified FA and adiponectin were not.A low dietary intake of linoleic acid and elevated SCD-1 index may contribute to higher ALT activity in elderly men, even independently of obesity and insulin resistance.

Background— The purpose of this study was to investigate associations between combinations of body mass index (BMI) categories and metabolic syndrome (MetS) and the risk of cardiovascular disease and death in middle-aged men. Methods and Results— At age 50 years, cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in 1758 participants without diabetes in the community-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM). According to BMI-MetS status, they were categorized as normal weight (BMI 2 ) without MetS (National Cholesterol Education Program criteria; n=891), normal weight with MetS (n=64), overweight (BMI 25 to 30 kg/m 2 ) without MetS (n=582), overweight with MetS (n=125), obese (BMI >30 kg/m 2 ) without MetS (n=30), or obese with MetS (n=66). During follow-up (median 30 years), 788 participants died, and 681 developed cardiovascular disease (composite of cardiovascular death or hospitalization for myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure). In Cox proportional-hazards models that adjusted for age, smoking, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, an increased risk for cardiovascular disease was observed in normal-weight participants with MetS (hazard ratio 1.63, 95% confidence interval 1.11 to 2.37), overweight participants without MetS (hazard ratio 1.52, 95% confidence interval 1.28 to 1.80), overweight participants with MetS (hazard ratio 1.74, 95% confidence interval 1.32 to 2.30), obese participants without MetS (hazard ratio 1.95, 95% confidence interval 1.14 to 3.34), and obese participants with MetS (hazard ratio 2.55, 95% confidence interval 1.81 to 3.58) compared with normal-weight individuals without MetS. These BMI-MetS categories significantly predicted total mortality rate in a similar pattern. Conclusions— Middle-aged men with MetS had increased risk for cardiovascular events and total death regardless of BMI status during more than 30 years of follow-up. In contrast to previous reports, overweight and obese individuals without MetS also had an increased risk. The present data refute the notion that overweight and obesity without MetS are benign conditions.

To define the optimal glomerular filtration rate (GFR) cut off for discriminating the risk of myocardial infarction or cardiovascular death.Prospective longitudinal observational study.A community-based cohort.A total of 2176 nondiabetic 50-year-old men without cardiovascular disease.The men were followed until age 70. GFR was estimated at baseline using the Cockcroft-Gault formula. The optimal GFR cut-off points for discriminating risk of a fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction and cardiovascular death were defined as the GFR levels maximizing integrated discrimination improvement (IDI).Fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, cardiovascular death.During follow-up, 264 men experienced a fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, and 218 died of cardiovascular disease. The IDI-defined optimal GFR cut offs in this study were 98 mL min(-1) for discriminating myocardial infarction risk and 92 mL min(-1) for discriminating risk of cardiovascular death. In Cox proportional hazard models adjusting for established risk factors, the myocardial infarction risk was substantially higher in men with GFR below versus above 98 mL min(-1) [hazard ratio (HR) 1.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-2.3, P0.001], and the risk of cardiovascular death was doubled in men with GFR below versus above 92 mL min(-1) (HR 2.1, 95% CI 1.5-3.0, P0.001).The GFR cut-off point for optimal discrimination of cardiovascular risk in the general population may be higher than previously suggested.

Our aim was to examine relations of serum retinol-binding protein 4 (RBP4) to cardiovascular risk factors, and prevalent metabolic syndrome (MetS) and cardiovascular disease (CVD) in a large community-based sample of elderly.We evaluated cross-sectional relations of serum RBP4 to cardiovascular risk factors including anthropometrical measures, blood pressure, lipid measures, fasting glucose and insulin, body fat distribution including truncal fat by dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA), homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) and prevalent MetS in one thousand eight 70-year old participants (50% women) of the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS), and in five hundred seven 82-year old men from Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM). In ULSAM, we also examined associations with prevalent CVD.RBP4 concentrations were positively correlated with serum triglycerides (r=0.30; P0.0001 in both samples), whereas correlations with body mass index (BMI), waist circumference, sagittal abdominal diameter, total and truncal fat mass, total cholesterol, fasting glucose and HOMA-IR were weak. In multivariable-adjusted models, RBP-4 was associated with MetS (odds ratio (OR), 1.16 and 1.33; 95% confidence interval (CI), 0.99-1.37 and 1.05-1.67 per 1-standard deviation (SD) increase in PIVUS and ULSAM, respectively), and prior cerebrovascular disease (OR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.00-1.88 per 1-SD increase in ULSAM), but not with prior myocardial infarction.In elderly, RBP4 concentrations were associated with MetS and its components in both sexes, and prior cerebrovascular disease in men. These findings are consistent with the hypothesis that circulating RBP4 could be a marker of metabolic complications and possibly also atherosclerosis and overt CVD.

Heart failure is one of the most common, costly, disabling and deadly diseases. During the last decade, several different indices reflecting renal function such as creatinine-based glomerular filtration rate, circulating levels of cystatin C and low-grade albuminuria have been demonstrated to be independent risk factors for heart failure. This review summarizes our current knowledge of the relationship between diminished renal function and the incidence of heart failure in the community, and also in individuals with increased risk of heart failure such as patients with overt cardiovascular disease, hypertension or diabetes. This review will also put forward important areas of future research in this field.

Obesity and physical inactivity are related to the development of insulin resistance, but their relative importance and conjoint effects are unclear.We related body mass index (BMI) and self-reported leisure-time physical activity (PA) at the age of 50 years to insulin sensitivity measured with euglycemic insulin clamp technique and the presence of metabolic syndrome (MetS) at a subsequent examination, 20 years later, in 862 men free from diabetes and MetS at baseline.In a multivariable model including BMI, PA, homeostasis model assessment insulin resistance index, erythrocyte sedimentation rate, and all components of MetS at baseline, both BMI (beta, -0.19 mg/kg bodyweight/min per 1 kg/m; P0.0001) and PA (adjusted least square means, 5.1, 5.2, 5.4, and 6.2 mg/kg bodyweight/min in individuals with sedentary, moderate, regular, and athletic PA, respectively; P=0.0035) were significant predictors of insulin sensitivity at age 70. When categorizing individuals into four groups by BMI and PA at baseline, insulin sensitivity at the age of 70 years decreased significantly over the following categories: multivariable-adjusted least square means, 5.8 (low BMI/high PA); 5.6 (low BMI/low PA); 5.1 (high BMI/high PA); and 4.6 (high BMI/low PA) mg/kg bodyweight/min, respectively; P value of less than 0.0001.In our community-based sample of middle-aged men, BMI and PA were independent predictors of insulin resistance after 20 years of follow-up. Our results imply that obesity and physical inactivity may increase insulin resistance and metabolic risk by partly independent pathways, and emphasize the importance of strategies that address both obesity and physical inactivity to achieve increased public health.

Hypersensitive cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assays detect even minor elevations of cTnI. Previous findings identifying a group of seemingly healthy elderly men with very minor elevations of cTnI have shown that these men were at risk of premature cardiovascular death.To study the association between cTnI concentrations and cardiovascular risk factors and subclinical cardiac and renal target organ damage in a community-based sample of elderly men.Biomarkers reflecting glucose and lipid metabolism, renal function, cardiac function and inflammation were measured in the ULSAM study (n = 1205, mean age 71 years). The participants were placed in three subgroups based on the cTnI concentrations: a low group with cTnI0.02 microg/L, an intermediate group with cTnI between 0.02 and 0.039 microg/L and a high group with cTnI0.039 microg/L.In the entire cohort of 71-year-old men, most markers of glucose and lipid metabolism, renal function, inflammation and NT-proBNP were significantly related to the concentrations of cTnI, and most obviously in the high-cTnI group. In subjects with no signs of CVD (cardiovascular disease), only levels of NT-proBNP related to cTnI, and with the highest NT-proBNP levels in the high-cTnI group (p0.01). A multiple regression analysis showed that NT-proBNP was independently related to cTnI (p0.001).Measurement of cardiac troponins with highly sensitive assays identifies those at risk of premature CVD death who have hitherto remained unrecognized. The associated elevations of NT-proBNP in these participants support the fact that these elevations reflect ongoing pathological processes in the myocardium.

This study investigates the impact of genetic variation in the cyclooxygenase-1 (COX-1) gene on formation of the vasoconstrictive, pro-inflammatory prostaglandin F(2)(alpha) (PGF(2)(alpha)) and development of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We determined COX-1 genotypes, PGF(2)(alpha) formation and CVD prevalence in a Swedish cohort of 809 men at age 77 years. Of these, 237 had a history of CVD according to the registry data. Four of nine COX-1 single nucleotide polymorphisms were associated with altered formation of PGF(2)(alpha) (P

Fruit and vegetable consumption has been associated with a reduced risk of several diseases including CVD. A part of these effects seen could be linked to anti-inflammatory and antioxidative effects, although this has not been thoroughly investigated. The present study was designed to investigate the effects of the dietary intake of β-carotene, α-tocopherol and ascorbic acid on in vivo biomarkers of inflammation (PGF2α, high-sensitive C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and IL-6 formation) and oxidative stress (F2-isoprostane formation), the two important factors associated with accelerated atherosclerosis. The dietary intake of 704 participants in the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) at age 70 years was registered and inflammatory and oxidative stress biomarkers were quantified 7 years later. The registered dietary intakes of ascorbic acid and α-tocopherol were negatively associated linearly and in quartiles with both PGF2α, hsCRP, IL-6 and F2-isoprostanes, where ascorbic acid intake generally was more strongly associated. Dietary intake of β-carotene was only significantly negatively associated with F2-isoprostanes. In conclusion, the present study is the first to suggest that the intake of food rich in antioxidants is associated with reduced cyclo-oxygenase- and cytokine-mediated inflammation and oxidative stress at 7 years of follow-up. These associations could be linked to the beneficial effects of fruit and vegetables observed on CVD.

To investigate the association of serum concentrations and dietary intake of beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol with type 2 diabetes incidence.Serum beta-carotene, alpha-tocopherol, lifestyle factors (BMI, physical activity and smoking) and metabolic factors (insulin sensitivity [homeostasis model assessment], acute insulin response and impaired fasting glucose) were analysed in 846 50-year-old non-diabetic Swedish men (participants in the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men). Diabetes was identified in 245 participants at reinvestigations after 10, 20 and 27 years. At the 20 year reinvestigation, dietary intake of beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol, insulin sensitivity (euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp) and insulin secretion (early insulin response in OGTT) were determined.The highest tertile of serum beta-carotene at age 50 (0.335 mumol/l) was associated with 59% lower risk of diabetes during follow-up compared with the lowest tertile (0.210 mumol/l) after adjustment for lifestyle and metabolic factors (p0.01). The highest tertile of lipid-corrected serum alpha-tocopherol at age 50 (3.67 mumol/mmol) was associated with 46% lower risk of diabetes compared with the lowest tertile (3.25 mumol/mmol) independently of metabolic factors (p0.05). Moreover, lower serum beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol concentrations were independently associated with impaired insulin sensitivity (p0.001), but not with early insulin response, in a subsample of non-diabetic individuals 20 years later. Dietary intake of beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol independently predicted type 2 diabetes during 7 years of follow-up.Serum concentrations and dietary intakes of beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol independently predicted insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes incidence during 27 years of follow-up in a community-based study of men. This result supports the importance of impaired antioxidant status for the development of insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes.

Insulin resistance independently predicts heart failure and coronary disease, and has been related to thick left ventricular walls, mainly in studies of hypertensive samples not fully accounting for the influence of blood pressure. This study investigated whether the metabolic syndrome and insulin resistance are related to left ventricular geometry independently of blood pressure.Cross-sectional study.A community-based sample of 820 70-year-old men and women (the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors, PIVUS) free from valvular disease, heart failure and myocardial infarction.Relations of the National Cholesterol Education Program-defined metabolic syndrome and homeostasis model assessment of insulin resistance (HOMA-IR) to echocardiographic left ventricular geometry. Models were adjusted for sex, height, intra-arterial systolic and diastolic blood pressures, and antihypertensive medication.Left ventricular mass index was increased in persons with the metabolic syndrome in the total sample (49.7 (SD 13.1) vs 39.7 (SD 11.5) g/m(2.7), p0.001) and in subgroups of normotensive and hypertensive persons, mainly accounted for by an increased relative wall thickness. HOMA-IR was related to left ventricular mass index in the total sample (r = 0.31; p0.001) and in hypertensive persons, but with borderline significance in normotensive persons. HOMA-IR was related to relative wall thickness in the total sample (r = 0.27; p0.001), in normotensive and hypertensive persons.Left ventricular mass and relative wall thickness were increased in persons with the metabolic syndrome and were related to HOMA-IR in a large population-based sample of men and women of the same age, accounting for covariates including intra-arterial blood pressure levels.

Background The incremental usefulness of adding multiple biomarkers from different disease pathways for predicting the risk of death from cardiovascular causes has not, to our knowledge, been evaluated among the elderly. Methods We used data from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM), a community-based cohort of elderly men, to investigate whether a combination of biomarkers that reflect myocardial cell damage, left ventricular dysfunction, renal failure, and inflammation (troponin I, N-terminal pro–brain natriuretic peptide, cystatin C, and C-reactive protein, respectively) improved the risk stratification of a person beyond an assessment that was based on the established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (age, systolic blood pressure, use or nonuse of antihypertensive treatment, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, use or nonuse of lipid-lowering treatment, presence or absence of diabetes, smoking status, and body-mass index). Results During follow-up (median, 10.0 years), 315 of the 1135 participants in our study (mean age, 71 years at baseline) died; 136 deaths were the result of cardiovascular disease. In Cox proportional-hazards models adjusted for established risk factors, all of the biomarkers significantly predicted the risk of death from cardiovascular causes. The C statistic increased significantly when the four biomarkers were incorporated into a model with established risk factors, both in the whole cohort (C statistic with biomarkers vs. without biomarkers, 0.766 vs. 0.664; P

OBJECTIVE—Predictors of insulin resistance have hitherto only been examined in cross-sectional studies without information on lifestyle factors. Few researchers have measured insulin sensitivity directly and compared different metabolic and lifestyle predictors in a large population. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS—Our aim was to investigate independent long-term predictors of insulin sensitivity in a large population-based sample (the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men cohort) of 50-year-old men who underwent a euglycemic clamp 20 years later (n = 770). Subjects with diabetes and treatment of cardiovascular disease at baseline were excluded. In linear regression models, metabolic (BMI, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol, glucose, and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (physical activity, smoking, saturated fat biomarkers, and socioeconomic status) were independent variables at baseline (age 50 years) and insulin sensitivity–dependent variables at follow-up (age 70 years). A subsample of only normal-weight men from the initial population was also examined (n = 440). RESULTS—BMI was the strongest predictor of insulin sensitivity even after addition of metabolic factors. One SD (±2.8) increase in BMI corresponded to a mean 19% decrease in insulin sensitivity. After addition of lifestyle factors, all factors except triglycerides and smoking were significant predictors. BMI remained the strongest predictor (β = −0.67 [95% CI −0.83 to −0.51], P < 0.0001) followed by physical activity, HDL cholesterol, saturated fat, and socioeconomic status (all P < 0.05). BMI remained the strongest predictor in normal-weight subjects also (P < 0.001). In addition, after adjustment for baseline insulin concentrations, BMI remained the strongest predictor (P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS—Multiple factors, including novel factors such as saturated fat and socioeconomic status, independently predict insulin sensitivity after 20 years. BMI is, however, the single strongest predictor, even in normal-weight subjects.

To investigate associations of urinary albumin excretion rate (UAER) and heart failure (HF) incidence in a community-based sample.In a prospective study of 70-year-old men free from HF at baseline (n = 1106), UAER (from timed overnight samples) was analysed with established risk factors for HF [acute MI before baseline, acute MI during follow-up (modelled as a time-dependent covariate), hypertension, diabetes, left ventricular hypertrophy, smoking, body mass index, and glomerular filtration rate] and more recently described risk factors [high-sensitive C-reactive protein and insulin sensitivity (clamp glucose disposal rate)] as predictors of HF incidence. Ninety-eight participants developed HF during a median follow-up of 9.0 years. In Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established and novel risk factors for HF, a 1 SD increase in log UAER increased the risk of HF in individuals without anti-hypertensive treatment (hazard ratio 1.49; 95% CI 1.13-1.98; P = 0.005). Furthermore, UAER remained an independent predictor of HF, also in participants without diabetes at baseline or myocardial infarction at baseline or during follow-up. There were no significant associations between UAER and HF incidence in individuals with anti-hypertensive treatment.Our observations support the notion that low-grade albuminuria is a marker for subclinical cardiovascular damage that predisposes to future HF in the community.

Background Sleep disturbances are associated with manifest heart failure (HF). However, the relationship between sleep disturbances and incident HF has been less studied. Aims To investigate self-reported sleep disturbances as predictors of HF in a longitudinal, community-based cohort of 2314 middle-aged men. Methods and results Data on self-reported sleep disturbances, as well as established risk factors for HF were collected and analyzed using Cox proportional hazards analyses. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established risk factors for HF, the presence at baseline of sleep disturbances (hazard ratio [HR], 1.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.16–1.99; p=0.002) was an independent risk factor for HF. There was evidence of effect modification between BMI and sleep disturbances. In multivariable-adjusted models, sleep disturbance (HR, 1.58; 95% CI, 1.13–2.21; p=0.008) was an independent risk factor for HF in overweight participants (BMI>25), but not in normal-weight participants (BMI≤25). All results remained similar in a sub-sample excluding all participants suffering from a myocardial infarction during follow-up. Conclusions Self-reported sleep disturbances imply an increased risk of subsequent HF in overweight middle-aged men, via mechanisms largely independent of established risk factors for HF, including an interim myocardial infarction.

Objective Insulin resistance is common in individuals with chronic kidney disease (CKD) and may be partly explained by modifiable risk factors. In the general population, vitamin E supplementation has been suggested to improve both insulin sensitivity and secretion. We here explore the potential role of vitamin E as a modifiable risk factor for insulin resistance among individuals with CKD. Design Observational study. Setting A total of 273 nondiabetic men aged 70 to 71 years with CKD defined as either cystatin C estimated glomerular filtration rate 2 or urinary albumin excretion rate ≥ 20 mg/minute from the third examination cycle of Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men. Subjects A total of 273 nondiabetic men aged 70 to 71 years with CKD defined as either cystatin C estimated glomerular filtration rate 2 or urinary albumin excretion rate ≥ 20 μg/minute. Methods Serum α-, β-, and γ-tocopherol concentrations were measured by high-performance liquid chromatography and expressed as μmol/total serum cholesterol and triglycerides (in mmol). Dietary vitamin E intake was estimated from 7-day food records. Main Outcome Measure Insulin sensitivity index (M/I ratio) was measured by hyperinsulinemic-euglycemic glucose clamps. Univariate and multivariate regression models were fitted to assess the association between M/I and circulating concentrations of tocopherols. Results The mean serum concentration of α-, β-, and γ- was 37.4 ± 6.58, 0.89 ± 0.23, and 4.32 ± 1.69 μmol/mmol, respectively. Median dietary vitamin E intake was 6.14 (interquartile range, 5.48-6.82) mg/day. In crude and fully-adjusted multivariate regression analyses, serum α-tocopherol levels were directly and strongly associated with M/I (standard β = 0.17, P = .003). No such association was observed for dietary vitamin E, serum β-, and γ-tocopherol concentrations. Conclusions Serum α-tocopherol concentration associates with insulin sensitivity in nondiabetic older men with CKD.

Aim. To study the association between anthropometric measures: body mass index (BMI), percent body fat, waist circumference (WC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), waist-to-hip-to-height ratio (WHHR), and A Body Shape Index (ABSI); to see if individuals in the lowest 5 percentiles for these measures have an increased risk of mortality. Methods. A population-based prospective cohort study ( 10,304 men and 16,549 women), the Malmo Diet and Cancer study (MDC), aged 45-73 years. Results. During a mean follow-up of 14 +/- 3 years, 2,224 men and 1,983 women died. There was a significant increased mortality risk after adjustments for potential confounders in the group with the 5% lowest BMI ( referent 25%-75%); hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals were 1.33 (1.10-1.61) for women and 1.27 (1.07-1.52) for men. A similar significant increased mortality risk was seen with the 5% lowest percent body fat, HR 1.31 (1.07-1.60) for women and 1.25 (1.04-1.50) for men. Women with an ABSI in the lowest 5 percentiles had a lower mortality risk HR 0.64 (0.48-0.85). Conclusion. These results imply that BMI or percent body fat could be used to identify lean individuals at increased mortality risk.

Background: We used a proteomics array to simultaneously measure 92 proteins that have been suggested to be associated with atherosclerosis and related them to plaque prevalence and echogenicity in carotid arteries in a human population-based study. Methods: In the Prospective Study of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS; n=931, 50% women, all aged 70 years), the number of carotid arteries with plaques was recorded by ultrasound and plaque echogenicity was determined. Levels of 92 proteins were assessed in plasma by a proximity extension assay (Proseek Multiplex CVD, Olink Bioscience, Uppsala, Sweden) and related to carotid measures in a regression framework. Results: Following adjustment for multiple testing, six of the proteins were significantly related to the number of carotid arteries affected by plaques in sex-adjusted models (osteoprotegrin, T-cell immunoglobulin and mucin domain-1, renin, growth hormone, matrix metalloprotease-12 and lecitin-like oxidized LDL receptor 1). When these six proteins were included jointly in a model adjusting for traditional cardiovascular risk factors, renin (odds ratio [OR], 1.30; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.13-1.50 per standard deviation increase) and growth hormone (OR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.10-1.45) were related to plaque prevalence independently of each other and known risk factors for atherosclerosis. Thirty-one proteins were related to plaque echogenicity after adjustment for known risk factors. Of these, interleukin-27 subunit alpha (beta, 5.20; P=0.00032), vascular endothelial growth factor-delta (beta, 4.73; P=0.0013) and matrix metalloprotease-1 (beta, 3.93; P=0.0034) were associated with plaque echogenicity independently of each other. Conclusion: A novel targeted proteomics approach using the proximity extension technique discovered several new associations of candidate proteins with plaque prevalence and echogenicity in the carotid arteries in a large human sample.

Improvement of risk prediction for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) is needed. Both ambulatory blood pressure (ABP) and biomarkers amino-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP), high-sensitivity C-reactive protein and cystatin C improve risk prediction but they have not been evaluated in relation to each other. We analyzed whether NT-proBNP, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, or cystatin C improved risk prediction beyond traditional ASCVD risk factors combined with 24-hour systolic BP (SBP). Secondary aim was to evaluate whether ABP improved risk prediction when compared with models with the biomarkers. We followed up 907 70-year-old men, free of baseline disease, for incident ASCVD defined as fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction or fatal or nonfatal stroke for a median of 10 years. Cox regression was used to estimate the association between variables in the models and incident ASCVD. Biomarkers were added to a model containing both traditional risk factors and ABP and the models were compared on C-statistics and net reclassification improvement. Twenty-four hour SBP improved discrimination for incident ASCVD when compared with office SBP in a traditional risk factor model (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, +2.4%). NT-proBNP further improved reclassification (+18.7%–19.9%; P

Objective: Circulating soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2) are associated with chronic kidney disease (CKD) progression in patients with CKD or diabetes, and with higher mortality. However, data in patients with end-stage renal disease are scarce. Therefore, we analyzed serum levels of sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 and investigated their association with inflammatory markers and mortality in dialysis patients. Research Design and Methods: This was a longitudinal cohort study of 207 prevalent patients (median age 66 years, 56% men) undergoing hemodialysis in Stockholm, Sweden. Demographics, clinical characteristics, including comorbidities and laboratory data, were obtained at baseline, together with prospective follow-up for mortality. Results: The median sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 levels were 17,680 ng/l [95% confidence interval (CI) 17,023-18,337] and 24,450 ng/l (95% CI 23,721-25,179), respectively. During a follow-up of 31 months (interquartile range, 21-38), 77 patients died. There was no association between the levels of sTNFRs and mortality in Cox regression models, and no consistent trend towards higher or lower mortality was seen in Laplace regression models. sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 levels were highly associated with other inflammatory markers including interleukin-6, pentraxin 3 and TNF-α. Conclusions: Prevalent hemodialysis patients have several-fold higher levels of sTNFRs compared to previous studies in CKD stage 4 patients. As no consistent association between TNFR and mortality was observed, clinical implications of measuring these receptors to predict outcome end-stage renal disease patients provide limited results.

Background/Aims: Although both endostatin and cathepsins S have been associated with higher mortality, data in patients with end-stage renal disease (ESRD) are scarce. Methods: A longitudinal cohort study of 207 prevalent patients undergoing hemodialysis. Results: Cathepsins S and L were associated with soluble receptors for tumor necrosis factor (sTNFR1 and sTNFR2, rho between 0.28 and 0.43, p < 0.001 for all). Weaker or absent associations between endostatin, cathepsins S and L were seen with other inflammatory biomarkers, that is, CRP, interleukin 6, pentraxin 3, and TNF. In Cox and Laplace regression models adjusted for age, sex, dialysis vintage, and diabetes: standard deviation increments of endostatin was associated with a lower mortality (hazard ratio 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.57-0.98), and with 6.8 months longer median survival. Conclusions: The high levels of endostatin, cathepsins S and L, and their associations with sTNFR1 and sTNFR2 warrant further studies exploring mortality, and the angiogenic and inflammatory pathways in ESRD.

Background Studies of socioeconomic factors as predictors of heart failure (HF) are few and have given opposing results. Further, it is unknown if these factors predict incident HF independently of myocardial infarction and other established risk factors for HF. Methods and Results In a community-based cohort of 2314 middle-age men free from HF, valvular disease, and previous myocardial infarction at baseline, socioeconomic factors were examined as predictors for HF using Cox proportional hazards analyses. In multivariable Cox proportional hazards models adjusted for established risk factors for HF (hypertension, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, smoking, serum cholesterol, and interim myocardial infarction), low occupational classification (hazard ratio [HR] 1.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.03–2.35 for low vs. high occupational classification), low education level (HR 1.98, 95% CI 1.07–3.68 for elementary school vs. college exam) and being unmarried (HR 1.44, 95% CI 0.99–2.10 for being unmarried vs. being married) increased the risk of HF. Conclusion High occupational classification and high education level decreased, and being unmarried increased, the risk of subsequent HF in middle-age men, via mechanisms largely independent of established risk factors for HF, including an interim myocardial infarction. Further studies are needed to understand the mechanisms behind these associations.

Context: Kidney dysfunction induces insulin resistance, but it is unknown if β cell function is affected. Objective: To investigate insulin release (β cell function) and glucose tolerance following a standardized oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) across kidney function strata. Setting and Design: Community-based cohort study from the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM). Participants and Main Outcome Measure: Included were 1015 nondiabetic Swedish men aged 70–71 years. All participants underwent OGTT and euglycaemic hyperinsulinaemic clamp (HEGC) tests, allowing determination of insulin sensitivity, β cell function, and glucose tolerance. Kidney function was estimated by cystatin C-algorithms. Mixed models were used to identify determinants of insulin secretion after the hyperglycemic load. Results: As many as 466 (46%) of participants presented moderate-advanced kidney disease. Insulin sensitivity (by HEGC) decreased across decreasing kidney function quartiles. After the OGTT challenge, however, β cell function indices (area under the curve for insulin release, the estimated first phase insulin release, and the insulinogenic index) were incrementally higher. Neither the oral disposition index nor the 2-h postload glucose tolerance differed across the kidney function strata. Mixed models showed that dynamic insulin release during the OGTT was inversely associated with kidney function, despite the correction for each individual's insulin sensitivity or its risk factors. Conclusions: In older men, β cell function after a hyperglycemic load appropriately compensated the loss in insulin sensitivity that accompanies kidney dysfunction. As a result, the net balance between insulin sensitivity and β cell function was preserved.

We aimed to investigate associations between combinations of body mass index (BMI)-categories, levels of physical activity and long-term risk of cardiovascular disease.At age 50 years, cardiovascular risk factors were assessed in 2196 participating men of the ULSAM-study. This investigation was repeated at age 60, 70, 77 and 82 years. Being physically active (PA) was defined as three hours of recreational or hard physical training per week. The men were categorized according to BMI/PA-status, as PA/normal weight (n = 593 at baseline), non-PA/normal weight (BMI 25 kg/m(2), n = 580), PA/overweight (n = 418), non-PA/overweight (BMI 25-30 kg/m(2), n = 462), PA/obese (n = 62), non-PA/obese (BMI30 kg/m(2), n = 81). We used updated data on BMI and physical activity obtained at all examinations. During follow-up (median 30 years) 850 individuals suffered a cardiovascular disease (myocardial infarction, stroke or heart failure). Using updated data on BMI/PA categories, an increased risk for cardiovascular disease was seen with increasing BMI, but a high physical activity was associated with a lower risk of cardiovascular disease within each BMI category: non-PA/normal weight (hazard ratio (HR) 1.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04-1.66), PA/overweight (HR 1.52, 95% CI 1.20-1.94), non-PA/overweight (HR 1.65, 95% CI 1.31-2.07) PA/obese (HR 2.05, 95% CI 1.44-2.92) and non-PA/obese (HR 2.39, 95% CI 1.74-3.29), using PA/normal weight men as referent.Although physical activity was beneficial at all levels of BMI regarding the risk of future cardiovascular disease, there was still a substantial increased risk associated with being overweight or obese during 30 years of follow-up.