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251. Mapping the climate change challenge

Author

Hallegatte, S., Rogelj, J., Allen, M., Clarke, L., Edenhofer, O., Field, C.B., Friedlingstein, P., van Kesteren, L., Knutti, Reto, Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M., Michel, A., Minx, J., Oppenheimer, M., Plattner, G.-K., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, M., Stocker, T.F., van Vuuren, D.P., Hallegatte, S., Rogelj, J., Allen, M., Clarke, L., Edenhofer, O., Field, C.B., Friedlingstein, P., van Kesteren, L., Knutti, Reto, Mach, K.J., Mastrandrea, M., Michel, A., Minx, J., Oppenheimer, M., Plattner, G.-K., Riahi, K., Schaeffer, M., Stocker, T.F., and van Vuuren, D.P.

Abstract

Discussions on a long-term global goal to limit climate change, in the form of an upper limit to warming, were only partially resolved at the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change negotiations in Paris, 2015. Such a political agreement must be informed by scientific knowledge. One way to communicate the costs and benefits of policies is through a mapping that systematically explores the consequences of different choices. Such a multi-disciplinary effort based on the analysis of a set of scenarios helped structure the IPCC AR5 Synthesis Report. This Perspective summarizes this approach, reviews its strengths and limitations, and discusses how decision-makers can use its results in practice. It also identifies research needs that can facilitate integrated analysis of climate change and help better inform policy-makers and the public.

Published
2016

252. The cumulative carbon budget and its implications

Author

Millar, R., Allen, M., Rogelj, J., Friedlingstein, P., Millar, R., Allen, M., Rogelj, J., and Friedlingstein, P.

Abstract

The cumulative impact of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions on climate has potentially profound economic and policy implications. It implies that the long-term climate change mitigation challenge should be reframed as a stock problem, while the overwhelming majority of climate policies continue to focus on the flow of CO2 into the atmosphere in 2030 or 2050. An obstacle, however, to the use of a cumulative carbon budget in policy is uncertainty in the size of this budget consistent with any specific temperature-based goal such as limiting warming to 2°C. This arises from uncertainty in the climate response to CO2 emissions, which is relatively tractable, and uncertainty in future warming due to non-CO2 drivers, which is less so. We argue these uncertainties are best addressed through policies that recognize the need to reduce net global CO2 emissions to zero to stabilize global temperatures but adapt automatically to evolving climate change. Adaptive policies would fit well within the Paris Agreement under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Published
2016

253. Differences between carbon budget estimates unravelled

Author

Rogelj, J., Schaefer, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Allen, M., Knutti, R., Rogelj, J., Schaefer, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gillett, N., van Vuuren, D., Riahi, K., Allen, M., and Knutti, R.

Abstract

Several methods exist to estimate the cumulative carbon emissions that would keep global warming to below a given temperature limit. Here we review estimates reported by the IPCC and the recent literature, and discuss the reasons underlying their differences. The most scientifically robust number — the carbon budget for CO2-induced warming only — is also the least relevant for real-world policy. Including all greenhouse gases and using methods based on scenarios that avoid instead of exceed a given temperature limit results in lower carbon budgets. For a >66% chance of limiting warming below the internationally agreed temperature limit of 2 °C relative to pre-industrial levels, the most appropriate carbon budget estimate is 590–1,240 GtCO2 from 2015 onwards. Variations within this range depend on the probability of staying below 2 °C and on end-of-century non-CO2 warming. Current CO2 emissions are about 40 GtCO2 yr−1, and global CO2 emissions thus have to be reduced urgently to keep within a 2 °C-compatible budget.

Published
2016

254. Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

Author

Jones, C.D., Ciais, P., Davis, S.J., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Peters, G.P., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D.P., Canadell, J.G., Cowie, A., Jackson, R.B., Jonas, M., Kriegler, E., Littleton, E., Lowe, J.A., Milne, J., Shrestha, G., Smith, P., Torvanger, A., Wiltshire, A., Jones, C.D., Ciais, P., Davis, S.J., Friedlingstein, P., Gasser, T., Peters, G.P., Rogelj, J., van Vuuren, D.P., Canadell, J.G., Cowie, A., Jackson, R.B., Jonas, M., Kriegler, E., Littleton, E., Lowe, J.A., Milne, J., Shrestha, G., Smith, P., Torvanger, A., and Wiltshire, A.

Abstract

Natural carbon sinks currently absorb approximately half of the anthropogenic CO2 emitted by fossil fuel burning, cement production and land-use change. However, this airborne fraction may change in the future depending on the emissions scenario. An important issue in developing carbon budgets to achieve climate stabilisation targets is the behaviour of natural carbon sinks, particularly under low emissions mitigation scenarios as required to meet the goals of the Paris Agreement. A key requirement for low carbon pathways is to quantify the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies which will be strongly affected by carbon cycle feedbacks. Here we find that Earth system models suggest significant weakening, even potential reversal, of the ocean and land sinks under future low emission scenarios. For the RCP2.6 concentration pathway, models project land and ocean sinks to weaken to 0.8 ± 0.9 and 1.1 ± 0.3 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 21st century and to −0.4 ± 0.4 and 0.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1 respectively for the second half of the 23rd century. Weakening of natural carbon sinks will hinder the effectiveness of negative emissions technologies and therefore increase their required deployment to achieve a given climate stabilisation target. We introduce a new metric, the perturbation airborne fraction, to measure and assess the effectiveness of negative emissions.

Published
2016

255. Global carbon budget 2013

Author

Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T. A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Houghton, R. A., Marland, G., Moriarty, R., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Arvanitis, A., Bakker, D. C E, Bopp, L., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Doney, S. C., Harper, A., Harris, I., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Jones, S. D., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Körtzinger, A., Koven, C., Lefèvre, N., Maignan, F., Omar, A., Ono, T., Park, G. H., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schwinger, J., Segschneider, J., Stocker, B. D., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., Van Heuven, S., Viovy, N., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., and Environmental Sciences

Subjects
Earth and Planetary Sciences(all)
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (G ATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ , reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6±0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3±0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.5±0.5 GtC yr -1, and SLAND 2.8±0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7±0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, G ATM was 5.1±0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9±0.5 GtC yr-1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0±0.5 GtC yr-1 (based on the 2001-2010 average), S LAND was 2.7±0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52±0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1- 3.1 %) to 9.9±0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy.With this projection, cumulative emissions ofCO2 will reach about 535±55 GtC for 1870-2013, about 70% from EFF (390±20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145±50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP-2013-V2.3).

Published
2014

256. Global carbon budget 2013

Author

Omar, A., Tans, P., Kato, E., Tilbrook, B., Jones, S. D., House, J. I., Boden, T. A., Peters, G. P., Pfeil, B., Stocker, B. D., Harris, I., Wiltshire, A., Raupach, M. R., Canadell, J. G., Schwinger, J., Arneth, A., Poulter, B., Ono, T., Lefèvre, N., Körtzinger, A., Park, G.-H., Saito, S., Le Quéré, C., Maignan, F., Keeling, R. F., Harper, A., Andrew, R. M., Wanninkhof, R., Bakker, D. C. E., Regnier, P., Doney, S. C., Ciais, P., Houghton, R. A., Van Heuven, S., Bopp, L., Zaehle, S., Viovy, N., Arvanitis, A., Jain, A. K., Marland, G., Chini, L. P., Sitch, S., Moriarty, R., Friedlingstein, P., Andres, R. J., Klein Goldewijk, K., Rödenbeck, C., Koven, C., Takahashi, T., and Segschneider, J.

Subjects
530 Physics
Abstract

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ± 1 σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr − 1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr − 1, S OCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, and S LAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr − 1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1, 2.2 % above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr − 1, SOCEANwas 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr −1, and assuming an ELU Cof 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr − 1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr − 1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 con- centration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1–3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61 % above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70 % from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC). This paper also documents any changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget from previous budgets (Le Quéré et al., 2013). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center.

Published
2014
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257. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Author

Pachauri, R. K., Allen, M. R., Barros, V. R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., Church, J. A., Clarke, L., Dahe, Q., Dasgupta, P., Dubash, N. K., Edenhofer, O., Elgizouli, I., Field, C. B., Forster, P., Friedlingstein, P., Fuglestvedt, J., Gomez-Echeverri, L., Hallegatte, S., Hegerl, G., Howden, M., Jiang, K., Jimenez Cisneroz, B., Kattsov, V., Lee, H., Mach, K. J., Marotzke, J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Meyer, L., Minx, J., Mulugetta, Y., O'Brien, K., Oppenheimer, M., Pereira, J. J., Pichs-Madruga, R., Plattner, G.-K., Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Power, S. B., Preston, B., Ravindranath, N. H., Reisinger, A., Riahi, K., Rusticucci, M., Scholes, R., Seyboth, K., Sokona, Y., Stavins, R., Stocker, T. F., Tschakert, P., van Vuuren, D., van Ypserle, J.-P., Pachauri, R.K., and Meyer, L.

Published
2014

258. Simulating the Earth system response to negative emissions

Author

Jones, C D, primary, Ciais, P, additional, Davis, S J, additional, Friedlingstein, P, additional, Gasser, T, additional, Peters, G P, additional, Rogelj, J, additional, van Vuuren, D P, additional, Canadell, J G, additional, Cowie, A, additional, Jackson, R B, additional, Jonas, M, additional, Kriegler, E, additional, Littleton, E, additional, Lowe, J A, additional, Milne, J, additional, Shrestha, G, additional, Smith, P, additional, Torvanger, A, additional, and Wiltshire, A, additional

Published
2016
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259. The status and challenge of global fire modelling

Author

Hantson, S., primary, Arneth, A., additional, Harrison, S. P., additional, Kelley, D. I., additional, Prentice, I. C., additional, Rabin, S. S., additional, Archibald, S., additional, Mouillot, F., additional, Arnold, S. R., additional, Artaxo, P., additional, Bachelet, D., additional, Ciais, P., additional, Forrest, M., additional, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Hickler, T., additional, Kaplan, J. O., additional, Kloster, S., additional, Knorr, W., additional, Lasslop, G., additional, Li, F., additional, Mangeon, S., additional, Melton, J. R., additional, Meyn, A., additional, Sitch, S., additional, Spessa, A., additional, van der Werf, G. R., additional, Voulgarakis, A., additional, and Yue, C., additional

Published
2016
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260. The carbon cycle in Mexico: past, present and future of C stocks and fluxes

Author

Murray-Tortarolo, G., primary, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Sitch, S., additional, Jaramillo, V. J., additional, Murguía-Flores, F., additional, Anav, A., additional, Liu, Y., additional, Arneth, A., additional, Arvanitis, A., additional, Harper, A., additional, Jain, A., additional, Kato, E., additional, Koven, C., additional, Poulter, B., additional, Stocker, B. D., additional, Wiltshire, A., additional, Zaehle, S., additional, and Zeng, N., additional

Published
2016
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261. Controls on terrestrial carbon feedbacks by productivity versus turnover in the CMIP5 Earth System Models

Author

Koven, CD, Koven, CD, Chambers, JQ, Georgiou, K, Knox, R, Negron-Juarez, R, Riley, WJ, Arora, VK, Brovkin, V, Friedlingstein, P, Jones, CD, Koven, CD, Koven, CD, Chambers, JQ, Georgiou, K, Knox, R, Negron-Juarez, R, Riley, WJ, Arora, VK, Brovkin, V, Friedlingstein, P, and Jones, CD

Abstract

To better understand sources of uncertainty in projections of terrestrial carbon cycle feedbacks, we present an approach to separate the controls on modeled carbon changes. We separate carbon changes into four categories using a linearized, equilibrium approach: those arising from changed inputs (productivity-driven changes), and outputs (turnover-driven changes), of both the live and dead carbon pools. Using Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) simulations for five models, we find that changes to the live pools are primarily explained by productivity-driven changes, with only one model showing large compensating changes to live carbon turnover times. For dead carbon pools, the situation is more complex as all models predict a large reduction in turnover times in response to increases in productivity. This response arises from the common representation of a broad spectrum of decomposition turnover times via a multi-pool approach, in which flux-weighted turnover times are faster than mass-weighted turnover times. This leads to a shift in the distribution of carbon among dead pools in response to changes in inputs, and therefore a transient but long-lived reduction in turnover times. Since this behavior, a reduction in inferred turnover times resulting from an increase in inputs, is superficially similar to priming processes, but occurring without the mechanisms responsible for priming, we call the phenomenon "false priming", and show that it masks much of the intrinsic changes to dead carbon turnover times as a result of changing climate. These patterns hold across the fully coupled, biogeochemically coupled, and radiatively coupled 1 % yr-1 increasing CO2 experiments. We disaggregate inter-model uncertainty in the globally integrated equilibrium carbon responses to initial turnover times, initial productivity, fractional changes in turnover, and fractional changes in productivity. For both the live and dead carbon pools, inter-model spread in carbon

Published
2015

262. Global Carbon Budget 2015

Author

Leerstoel Ridder, Environmental Sciences, Sub Algemeen Math. Inst, Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Korsbakken, J. I., Friedlingstein, P., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Keeling, R. F., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Bakker, D. C. E., Barbero, L., Bopp, L., Chang, J., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Fader, M., Feely, R. A., Gkritzalis, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Munro, D. R., Murata, A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S., Nojiri, Y., O'Brien, K., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Pérez, F. F., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., van Heuven, S., Vandemark, D., Viovy, N., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Leerstoel Ridder, Environmental Sciences, Sub Algemeen Math. Inst, Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Canadell, J. G., Sitch, S., Korsbakken, J. I., Friedlingstein, P., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Boden, T. A., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Keeling, R. F., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Bakker, D. C. E., Barbero, L., Bopp, L., Chang, J., Chevallier, F., Chini, L. P., Ciais, P., Fader, M., Feely, R. A., Gkritzalis, T., Harris, I., Hauck, J., Ilyina, T., Jain, A. K., Kato, E., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landschützer, P., Lauvset, S. K., Lefèvre, N., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Metzl, N., Millero, F., Munro, D. R., Murata, A., Nabel, J. E. M. S., Nakaoka, S., Nojiri, Y., O'Brien, K., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Pérez, F. F., Pfeil, B., Pierrot, D., Poulter, B., Rehder, G., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., van der Werf, G. R., van Heuven, S., Vandemark, D., Viovy, N., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.

Published
2015

263. Global carbon budget 2014

Author

Environmental Sciences, LS Economische Geschiedenis, Leerstoel Aarts, Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, S. D., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Boden, T. A., Bopp, L., Bozec, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chevallier, F., Cosca, C. E., Harris, I., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Jain, A., Johannessen, T., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landa, C. S., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Marland, G., Mathis, J. T., Metzl, N., Nojiri, Y., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Peters, W., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Salisbury, J. E., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Segschneider, J., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Wang, Y.-P., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., Zeng, N., Environmental Sciences, LS Economische Geschiedenis, Leerstoel Aarts, Le Quéré, C., Moriarty, R., Andrew, R. M., Peters, G. P., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Jones, S. D., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Boden, T. A., Bopp, L., Bozec, Y., Canadell, J. G., Chevallier, F., Cosca, C. E., Harris, I., Hoppema, M., Houghton, R. A., House, J. I., Jain, A., Johannessen, T., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Kitidis, V., Klein Goldewijk, K., Koven, C., Landa, C. S., Landschützer, P., Lenton, A., Lima, I. D., Marland, G., Mathis, J. T., Metzl, N., Nojiri, Y., Olsen, A., Ono, T., Peters, W., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Salisbury, J. E., Schuster, U., Schwinger, J., Séférian, R., Segschneider, J., Steinhoff, T., Stocker, B. D., Sutton, A. J., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., van der Werf, G. R., Viovy, N., Wang, Y.-P., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., and Zeng, N.

Published
2015

264. Future simulations of permafrost by the JULES land surface model

Author

Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Essery, R., Boike, Julia, Langer, Moritz, Cox, P., Friedlingstein, P., Chadburn, S., Burke, E., Essery, R., Boike, Julia, Langer, Moritz, Cox, P., and Friedlingstein, P.

Abstract

Permafrost covers approximately 25% of the exposed land surface and contains large quantities of stored organic carbon, which may be released to the atmosphere when permafrost thaws, amplifying the global warming effect. It is therefore important to assess the fate of permafrost under future climate warming using global models. Here we show the rate of permafrost degradation in JULES, which is the land surface model used in the Hadley Centre climate models, using future simulations under two different climate scenarios. The model shows both permafrost area loss and active layer deepening. We compare the standard version of JULES with an improved model version that includes important high- latitude processes. In particular, including the effects of mosses and organic soils reduces the rate of permafrost loss and active layer deepening. We show that simulating a deep soil column is important for determining the future permafrost dynamics, confirming previous work. We also show that the resolution of the soil column is very important for realistically simulating permafro

Published
2015

265. Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Author

Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Gruber, N., Jones, S.D., Murray-Tortarolo, G., Ahlström, A., Doney, S.C., Graven, H., Heinze, C., Huntingford, C., Levis, S., Levy, P.E., Lomas, M., Poulter, B., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Arneth, A., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Canadell, J.G., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Ellis, R., Gloor, M., Peylin, P., Piao, S.L., Le Quéré, C., Smith, B., Zhu, Z., Myneni, R., Sitch, S., Friedlingstein, P., Gruber, N., Jones, S.D., Murray-Tortarolo, G., Ahlström, A., Doney, S.C., Graven, H., Heinze, C., Huntingford, C., Levis, S., Levy, P.E., Lomas, M., Poulter, B., Viovy, N., Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Arneth, A., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Canadell, J.G., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Ellis, R., Gloor, M., Peylin, P., Piao, S.L., Le Quéré, C., Smith, B., Zhu, Z., and Myneni, R.

Abstract

The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990–2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990–2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of −2.4 ± 0.7 Pg C yr−1 with a small significant trend of −0.06 ± 0.03 Pg C yr−2 (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990–2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of −2.2 ± 0.2 Pg C yr−1 with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (−0.01 ± 0.02 Pg C yr−2). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of −0.02 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2. Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 ± 0.08 Pg C yr−2 exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−2 – primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (−0.04 ± 0.01 Pg C yr−2), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where rece

Published
2015

266. Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene

Author

Frank, D.C., Poulter, B., Saurer, M., Esper, J., Huntingford, C., Helle, G., Treydte, K., Zimmermann, N.E., Schleser, G.H., Ahlstrom, A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Levis, S., Lomas, M., Sitch, S., Viovy, N., Andreu-Hayles, L., Bednarz, Z., Berninger, F., Boettger, T., D'Alessandro, C.M., Daux, V., Filot, M., Grabner, M., Gutierrez, E., Haupt, M., Hilasvuori, E., Jungner, H., Kalela-Brundin, M., Krapiec, M., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N.J., Marah, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pazdur, A., Pawelczyk, S., Pierre, M., Planells, O., Pukiene, R., Reynolds-Henne, C.E., Rinne, K.T., Saracino, A., Sonninen, E., Stievenard, M., Switsur, V.R., Szczepanek, M., Szychowska-Krapiec, E., Todaro, L., Waterhouse, J.S., Weigl, M., Frank, D.C., Poulter, B., Saurer, M., Esper, J., Huntingford, C., Helle, G., Treydte, K., Zimmermann, N.E., Schleser, G.H., Ahlstrom, A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Levis, S., Lomas, M., Sitch, S., Viovy, N., Andreu-Hayles, L., Bednarz, Z., Berninger, F., Boettger, T., D'Alessandro, C.M., Daux, V., Filot, M., Grabner, M., Gutierrez, E., Haupt, M., Hilasvuori, E., Jungner, H., Kalela-Brundin, M., Krapiec, M., Leuenberger, M., Loader, N.J., Marah, H., Masson-Delmotte, V., Pazdur, A., Pawelczyk, S., Pierre, M., Planells, O., Pukiene, R., Reynolds-Henne, C.E., Rinne, K.T., Saracino, A., Sonninen, E., Stievenard, M., Switsur, V.R., Szczepanek, M., Szychowska-Krapiec, E., Todaro, L., Waterhouse, J.S., and Weigl, M.

Published
2015

267. Impact of model developments on present and future simulations of permafrost in a global land-surface model

Author

Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Essery, R. L. H., Boike, J., Langer, Moritz, Heikenfeld, M., Cox, P. M., Friedlingstein, P., Chadburn, S. E., Burke, E. J., Essery, R. L. H., Boike, J., Langer, Moritz, Heikenfeld, M., Cox, P. M., and Friedlingstein, P.

Abstract

There is a large amount of organic carbon stored in permafrost in the northern high latitudes, which may become vulnerable to microbial decomposition under future climate warming. In order to estimate this potential carbon–climate feedback it is necessary to correctly simulate the physical dynamics of permafrost within global Earth system models (ESMs) and to determine the rate at which it will thaw. Additional new processes within JULES, the land-surface scheme of the UK ESM (UKESM), include a representation of organic soils, moss and bedrock and a modification to the snow scheme; the sensitivity of permafrost to these new developments is investigated in this study. The impact of a higher vertical soil resolution and deeper soil column is also considered. Evaluation against a large group of sites shows the annual cycle of soil temperatures is approximately 25 % too large in the standard JULES version, but this error is corrected by the model improvements, in particular by deeper soil, organic soils, moss and the modified snow scheme. A comparison with active layer monitoring sites shows that the active layer is on average just over 1 m too deep in the standard model version, and this bias is reduced by 70 cm in the improved version. Increasing the soil vertical resolution allows the full range of active layer depths to be simulated; by contrast, with a poorly resolved soil at least 50 % of the permafrost area has a maximum thaw depth at the centre of the bottom soil layer. Thus all the model modifications are seen to improve the permafrost simulations. Historical permafrost area corresponds fairly well to observations in all simulations, covering an area between 14 and 19 million km2. Simulations under two future climate scenarios show a reduced sensitivity of permafrost degradation to temperature, with the near-surface permafrost loss per degree of warming reduced from 1.5 million km2 °C−1 in the standard version of JULES to between 1.1 and 1.2 million km2 °C−1 in

Published
2015

268. The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO 2 sink

Author

Ahlstrom, A., Raupach, Michael, Schurgers, Guy, Smith, Benjamin, Arneth, Almut, Jung, Martin, Reichstein, M, Canadell, Josep G., Friedlingstein , P., Jain, A.K., Kato, Etsushi, Poulter, B., Sitch, Stephen, Stocker, B.D., Viovy, N., Wang, Ying Ping, Wiltshire, Andy, Zaehle, S., Zeng, N., Ahlstrom, A., Raupach, Michael, Schurgers, Guy, Smith, Benjamin, Arneth, Almut, Jung, Martin, Reichstein, M, Canadell, Josep G., Friedlingstein , P., Jain, A.K., Kato, Etsushi, Poulter, B., Sitch, Stephen, Stocker, B.D., Viovy, N., Wang, Ying Ping, Wiltshire, Andy, Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.

Abstract

The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and landsurface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature.

Published
2015

269. Global Carbon Budget 2015

Author

Le Quéré, C., primary, Moriarty, R., additional, Andrew, R. M., additional, Canadell, J. G., additional, Sitch, S., additional, Korsbakken, J. I., additional, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Peters, G. P., additional, Andres, R. J., additional, Boden, T. A., additional, Houghton, R. A., additional, House, J. I., additional, Keeling, R. F., additional, Tans, P., additional, Arneth, A., additional, Bakker, D. C. E., additional, Barbero, L., additional, Bopp, L., additional, Chang, J., additional, Chevallier, F., additional, Chini, L. P., additional, Ciais, P., additional, Fader, M., additional, Feely, R. A., additional, Gkritzalis, T., additional, Harris, I., additional, Hauck, J., additional, Ilyina, T., additional, Jain, A. K., additional, Kato, E., additional, Kitidis, V., additional, Klein Goldewijk, K., additional, Koven, C., additional, Landschützer, P., additional, Lauvset, S. K., additional, Lefèvre, N., additional, Lenton, A., additional, Lima, I. D., additional, Metzl, N., additional, Millero, F., additional, Munro, D. R., additional, Murata, A., additional, Nabel, J. E. M. S., additional, Nakaoka, S., additional, Nojiri, Y., additional, O'Brien, K., additional, Olsen, A., additional, Ono, T., additional, Pérez, F. F., additional, Pfeil, B., additional, Pierrot, D., additional, Poulter, B., additional, Rehder, G., additional, Rödenbeck, C., additional, Saito, S., additional, Schuster, U., additional, Schwinger, J., additional, Séférian, R., additional, Steinhoff, T., additional, Stocker, B. D., additional, Sutton, A. J., additional, Takahashi, T., additional, Tilbrook, B., additional, van der Laan-Luijkx, I. T., additional, van der Werf, G. R., additional, van Heuven, S., additional, Vandemark, D., additional, Viovy, N., additional, Wiltshire, A., additional, Zaehle, S., additional, and Zeng, N., additional

Published
2015
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270. Effect of anthropogenic land-use and land cover changes on climate and land carbon storage in CMIP5 projections for the 21st century

Author

Brovkin, V., https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6420-3198, Boysen, L., Arora, V., Boisier, J., Cadule, P., Chini, L., Claussen, M., https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6225-5488, Friedlingstein, P., Gayler, V., https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4069-5444, van den Hurk, B., Hurtt, G., Jones, C., Kato, E., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Pacifico, F., Pongratz, J., https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0372-3960, and Weiss, M.

Abstract

The effects of land-use changes on climate are assessed using specified-concentration simulations complementary to the representative concentration pathway 2.6 (RCP2.6) and RCP8.5 scenarios performed for phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). This analysis focuses on differences in climate and land-atmosphere fluxes between the ensemble averages of simulations with and without land-use changes by the end of the twenty-first century. Even though common land-use scenarios are used, the areas of crops and pastures are specific for each Earth system model (ESM). This is due to different interpretations of land-use classes. The analysis reveals that fossil fuel forcing dominates land-use forcing. In addition, the effects of land-use changes are globally not significant, whereas they are significant for regions with land-use changes exceeding 10%. For these regions, three out of six participating models-the Second Generation Canadian Earth System Model (CanESM2); Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model, version 2 (Earth System) (HadGEM2-ES); and Model for Interdisciplinary Research on Climate, Earth System Model (MIROC-ESM)-reveal statistically significant changes in mean annual surface air temperature. In addition, changes in land surface albedo, available energy, and latent heat fluxes are small but significant for most ESMs in regions affected by land-use changes. These climatic effects are relatively small, as land-use changes in the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios are small in magnitude and mainly limited to tropical and subtropical regions. The relative importance of the climatic effects of land-use changes is higher for the RCP2.6 scenario, which considers an expansion of biofuel croplands as a climate mitigation option. The underlying similarity among all models is the loss in global land carbon storage due to land-use changes. © 2013 American Meteorological Society.

Published
2013

271. Carbon-concentration and carbon-1 climate feedbacks in CMIP5 earth system models

Author

Arora, V., Boer, G., Friedlingstein, P., Eby, M., Jones, C., Christian, J., Bonan, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6420-3198, Cadule, P., Hajima, T., Ilyina, T., https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3475-4842, Lindsay, K., Tjiputra, J., and Wu, T.

Subjects
Physics::Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics
Abstract

The magnitude and evolution of parameters that characterize feedbacks in the coupled carbon–climate system are compared across nine Earth system models (ESMs). The analysis is based on results from biogeochemically, radiatively, and fully coupled simulations in which CO2 increases at a rate of 1% yr−1. These simulations are part of phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5). The CO2 fluxes between the atmosphere and underlying land and ocean respond to changes in atmospheric CO2 concentration and to changes in temperature and other climate variables. The carbon–concentration and carbon–climate feedback parameters characterize the response of the CO2 flux between the atmosphere and the underlying surface to these changes. Feedback parameters are calculated using two different approaches. The two approaches are equivalent and either may be used to calculate the contribution of the feedback terms to diagnosed cumulative emissions. The contribution of carbon–concentration feedback to diagnosed cumulative emissions that are consistent with the 1% increasing CO2 concentration scenario is about 4.5 times larger than the carbon–climate feedback. Differences in the modeled responses of the carbon budget to changes in CO2 and temperature are seen to be 3–4 times larger for the land components compared to the ocean components of participating models. The feedback parameters depend on the state of the system as well the forcing scenario but nevertheless provide insight into the behavior of the coupled carbon–climate system and a useful common framework for comparing models.

Published
2013

272. 21st century compatible CO2 emissions and airborne fraction simulated by CMIP5 earth system models under 4 representative concentration pathways

Author

Jones, C., Robertson, E., Arora, V., Friedlingstein, P., Shevliakova, E., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6420-3198, Hajima, T., Kato, E., Kawamiya, M., Liddicoat, S., Lindsay, K., Reick, C., Roelandt, C., Segschneider, J., and Tjiputra, J.

Abstract

The carbon cycle is a crucial earth system component affecting climate and atmospheric composition. The response of natural carbon uptake to CO2 and climate change will determine anthropogenic emissions compatible with a target CO2 pathway. For CMIP5 4 future Representative Concentration Pathways have been generated by Integrated Assessment Models and used as scenarios by state-of-the-art climate models, enabling quantification of compatible carbon emissions for the 4 scenarios by complex, process-based models. Here we present results from 15 such Earth System GCMs for future changes in land and ocean carbon storage and the implications for anthropogenic emissions. The results are consistent with the underlying scenarios, but show substantial model spread. Uncertainty in land carbon uptake due to differences among models is comparable with the spread across scenarios. Model estimates of historical fossil fuel emissions agree well with reconstructions and future projections for RCP2.6 and RCP4.5 are consistent with the IAMs. For high-end scenarios (6.0 and 8.5) GCMs simulate smaller compatible emissions than the IAMs, indicating a larger climate-carbon cycle feedback in the GCMs in these scenarios. For the RCP2.6 mitigation scenario an average reduction of 50% in emissions by 2050 from 1990 levels is required but with very large model spread (14-96%). The models also disagree on both the requirement for sustained negative emissions to achieve the RCP2.6 CO2 concentration and the success of this scenario to restrict global warming below 2°C. All models agree that the future airborne-fraction depends strongly on the emissions profile with higher airborne-fraction for higher emissions scenarios.

Published
2013

273. Carbon and other biogeochemical cycles

Author

Ciais, P., Sabine, C., Bala, G., Bopp, L., Brovkin, V., Canadell, J., Chhabra, A., DeFries, R., Galloway, J., Heimann, M., Jones, C., Le Quéré, C., Mynen, R., Piao, S., Thornton, P., Ahlström, A., Anav, A., Andrews, O., Archer, D., Arora, V., Bonan, G., Borges, A., Bousquet, P., Bouwman, L., Bruhwiler, L., Caldeira, K., Cao, L., Chappellaz, J., Chevallier, F., Cleveland, C., Cox, P., Dentener, F., Doney, S., Erisman, J., Euskirchen, E., Friedlingstein, P., Gruber, N., Gurney, K., Holland, E., Hopwood, B., Houghton, R., House, J., Houweling, S., Hunter, S., Hurtt, G., Jacobson, A., Jain, A., Joos, F., Jungclaus, J., Kaplan, J., Kato, E., Keeling, R., Khatiwala, S., Kirschke, S., Goldewijk, K., Kloster, S., Koven, C., Kroeze, C., Lamarque, J., Lassey, K., Law, R., Lenton, A., Lomas, M., Luo, Y., Maki, T., Marland, G., Matthews, H., Mayorga, E., Melton, J., Metzl, N., Munhoven, G., Niwa), Y., Norby, R., O’Connor, F., Orr, J., Park, G., Patra, P., Peregon, A., Peters, W., Peylin, P., Piper, S., Pongratz, J., Poulter, B., Raymond, P., Rayner, P., Ridgwell, A., Ringeval, B., Rödenbeck, C., Saunois, M., Schmittner, A., Schuur, E., Sitch, S., Spahni, R., Stocker, B., Takahashi, T., Thompson, R., Tjiputra, J., van der Werf, G., van Vuuren, D., Voulgarakis, A., Wania, R., Zaehle, S., and Zeng, N.

Published
2013

274. Global trends in carbon sinks and their relationships with CO2and temperature

Author

Fernández-Martínez, M., Sardans, J., Chevallier, F., Ciais, P., Obersteiner, M., Vicca, S., Canadell, J. G., Bastos, A., Friedlingstein, P., Sitch, S., Piao, S. L., Janssens, I. A., and Peñuelas, J.

Abstract

Elevated CO2concentrations increase photosynthesis and, potentially, net ecosystem production (NEP), meaning a greater CO2uptake. Climate, nutrients and ecosystem structure, however, influence the effect of increasing CO2. Here we analysed global NEP from MACC-II and Jena CarboScope atmospheric inversions and ten dynamic global vegetation models (TRENDY), using statistical models to attribute the trends in NEP to its potential drivers: CO2, climatic variables and land-use change. We found that an increased CO2was consistently associated with an increased NEP (1995–2014). Conversely, increased temperatures were negatively associated with NEP. Using the two atmospheric inversions and TRENDY, the estimated global sensitivities for CO2were 6.0 ± 0.1, 8.1 ± 0.3 and 3.1 ± 0.1 PgC per 100 ppm (~1 °C increase), and −0.5 ± 0.2, −0.9 ± 0.4 and −1.1 ± 0.1 PgC °C−1for temperature. These results indicate a positive CO2effect on terrestrial C sinks that is constrained by climate warming.

Published
2019
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275. Fossil CO2emissions in the post-COVID-19 era

Author

Le Quéré, Corinne, Peters, Glen P., Friedlingstein, Pierre, Andrew, Robbie M., Canadell, Josep G., Davis, Steven J., Jackson, Robert B., and Jones, Matthew W.

Abstract

Five years after the adoption of the Paris Climate Agreement, growth in global CO2emissions has begun to falter. The pervasive disruptions from the COVID-19 pandemic have radically altered the trajectory of global CO2emissions. Contradictory effects of the post-COVID-19 investments in fossil fuel-based infrastructure and the recent strengthening of climate targets must be addressed with new policy choices to sustain a decline in global emissions in the post-COVID-19 era.

Published
2021
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276. Modeling fire and the terrestrial carbon balance

Author

Prentice, IC, Kelley, DI, Foster, PN, Friedlingstein, P, Harrison, SP, Bartlein, PJ, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract

International audience

Published
2011

277. The HadGEM2-ES implementation of CMIP5 centennial simulations

Author

Jones, C. D., Hughes, J. K., Bellouin, N., Hardimann, S. C., Jones, G. S., Knight, J., Liddicoat, S., O'Connor, F. M., Andres, R. J., Bell, C., Boo, K.-O., Bozzo, A., Butchart, N., Cadule, P., Corbin, K. D., Doutriaux-Boucher, M., Friedlingstein, P., Gornall, J., Gray, L., Halloran, P. R., Hurtt, G., Ingram, W. J., Lamarque, J.-F., Law, R. M., Meinshausen, M., Osprey, S., Palin, E. J., Parsons Chini, L., Raddatz, T., Sanderson, M. G., Sellar, A. A., Schurer, A., Valdes, P., Wood, N., Woodward, S., Yoshioka, M., and Zerroukat, M.

Subjects
ddc:550
Published
2011

278. Climate-CH4 feedback from wetlands and its interaction with the climate-CO2 feedback

Author

Ringeval, Bruno, Friedlingstein, P., Koven, C., Ciais, P., de Noblet-Ducoudré, N., Decharme, B., Cadule, P., Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [Berkeley] (LBNL), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Météo France-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (ISPA), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Météo France-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
lcsh:Geology, lcsh:QH501-531, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, lcsh:QH540-549.5, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, lcsh:QE1-996.5, lcsh:Life, inversion atmosphérique, zone humide, écosystème naturel, variabilité climatique, méthane, lcsh:Ecology
Abstract

The existence of a feedback between climate and methane (CH4) emissions from wetlands has previously been hypothesized, but both its sign and amplitude remain unknown. Moreover, this feedback could interact with the climate-CO2 cycle feedback, which has not yet been accounted for at the global scale. These interactions relate to (i) the effect of atmospheric CO2 on methanogenic substrates by virtue of its fertilizing effect on plant productivity and (ii) the fact that a climate perturbation due to CO2 (respectively CH4) radiative forcing has an effect on wetland CH4 emissions (respectively CO2 fluxes at the surface/atmosphere interface). We present a theoretical analysis of these interactions, which makes it possible to express the magnitude of the feedback for CO2 and CH4 alone, the additional gain due to interactions between these two feedbacks and the effects of these feedbacks on the difference in atmospheric CH4 and CO2 between 2100 and pre-industrial time (respectively ΔCH4 and ΔCO2). These gains are expressed as functions of different sensitivity terms, which we estimate based on prior studies and from experiments performed with the global terrestrial vegetation model ORCHIDEE. Despite high uncertainties on the sensitivity of wetland CH4 emissions to climate, we found that the absolute value of the gain of the climate-CH4 feedback from wetlands is relatively low (2 feedback gain), with either negative or positive sign within the range of estimates. Whereas the interactions between the two feedbacks have low influence on ΔCO2, the ΔCH4 could increase by 475 to 1400 ppb based on the sign of the C-CH4 feedback gain. Our study suggests that it is necessary to better constrain the evolution of wetland area under future climate change as well as the local coupling through methanogenesis substrate of the carbon and CH4 cycles – in particular the magnitude of the CO2 fertilization effect on the wetland CH4 emissions – as these are the dominant sources of uncertainty in our model.

Published
2011

280. Supplementary material to "ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth System Models in CMIP"

Author

Eyring, V., primary, Righi, M., additional, Evaldsson, M., additional, Lauer, A., additional, Wenzel, S., additional, Jones, C., additional, Anav, A., additional, Andrews, O., additional, Cionni, I., additional, Davin, E. L., additional, Deser, C., additional, Ehbrecht, C., additional, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Gleckler, P., additional, Gottschaldt, K.-D., additional, Hagemann, S., additional, Juckes, M., additional, Kindermann, S., additional, Krasting, J., additional, Kunert, D., additional, Levine, R., additional, Loew, A., additional, Mäkelä, J., additional, Martin, G., additional, Mason, E., additional, Phillips, A., additional, Read, S., additional, Rio, C., additional, Roehrig, R., additional, Senftleben, D., additional, Sterl, A., additional, van Ulft, L. H., additional, Walton, J., additional, Wang, S., additional, and Williams, K. D., additional

Published
2015
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281. ESMValTool (v1.0) – a community diagnostic and performance metrics tool for routine evaluation of Earth System Models in CMIP

Author

Eyring, V., primary, Righi, M., additional, Evaldsson, M., additional, Lauer, A., additional, Wenzel, S., additional, Jones, C., additional, Anav, A., additional, Andrews, O., additional, Cionni, I., additional, Davin, E. L., additional, Deser, C., additional, Ehbrecht, C., additional, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Gleckler, P., additional, Gottschaldt, K.-D., additional, Hagemann, S., additional, Juckes, M., additional, Kindermann, S., additional, Krasting, J., additional, Kunert, D., additional, Levine, R., additional, Loew, A., additional, Mäkelä, J., additional, Martin, G., additional, Mason, E., additional, Phillips, A., additional, Read, S., additional, Rio, C., additional, Roehrig, R., additional, Senftleben, D., additional, Sterl, A., additional, van Ulft, L. H., additional, Walton, J., additional, Wang, S., additional, and Williams, K. D., additional

Published
2015
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282. The carbon cycle in Mexico: past, present and future of C stocks and fluxes

Author

Murray-Tortarolo, G., primary, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Sitch, S., additional, Jaramillo, V. J., additional, Murguía-Flores, F., additional, Anav, A., additional, Liu, Y., additional, Arneth, A., additional, Arvanitis, A., additional, Harper, A., additional, Jain, A., additional, Kato, E., additional, Koven, C., additional, Poulter, B., additional, Stocker, B. D., additional, Wiltshire, A., additional, Zaehle, S., additional, and Zeng, N., additional

Published
2015
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283. Supplementary material to "The carbon cycle in Mexico: past, present and future of C stocks and fluxes"

Author

Murray-Tortarolo, G., primary, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Sitch, S., additional, Jaramillo, V. J., additional, Murguía-Flores, F., additional, Anav, A., additional, Liu, Y., additional, Arneth, A., additional, Arvanitis, A., additional, Harper, A., additional, Jain, A., additional, Kato, E., additional, Koven, C., additional, Poulter, B., additional, Stocker, B. D., additional, Wiltshire, A., additional, Zaehle, S., additional, and Zeng, N., additional

Published
2015
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285. Benchmarking coupled climate-carbon models against long-term atmospheric CO 2 measurements

Author

Cadule, P., Friedlingstein, P., Bopp, L., Sitch, S., Jones, C., Ciais, P., Piao, S., Peylin, P., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), University of Exeter, School of Geography [Leeds], University of Leeds, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), College of Urban and Environmental Sciences [Beijing], Peking University [Beijing], Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract

International audience; [1] We evaluated three global models of the coupled carbon-climate system against atmospheric CO 2 concentration measured at a network of stations. These three models, HadCM3LC, IPSL-CM2-C, and IPSL-CM4-LOOP, participated in the C 4 MIP experiment and in various other simulations of the future climate impacts on the land and ocean carbon cycle. A new set of performance metrics is defined and applied to quantify each model's ability to reproduce the global growth rate, the seasonal cycle, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-forced interannual variability of atmospheric CO 2 , and the sensitivity to climatic variations. Knowing that the uncertainty on the amplitude, in 2100, of the climate-carbon feedback is mainly due to the uncertainty of the response of the terrestrial biosphere to the climate change, our new metrics primarily target the evaluation of the land parameterization of the carbon cycle. The modeled fluxes are prescribed to the same global atmospheric transport model LMDZ4, and the simulated concentrations are compared to available observations. We found that the IPSL-CM4-LOOP model is best able to reproduce the phase and amplitude of the atmospheric CO 2 seasonal cycle in the Northern Hemisphere, while the other two models generally underestimate the seasonal amplitude. This points to some shortcomings in describing the vegetation phenology and heterotropic respiration response to climate. We also found that IPSL-CM2-C produces a climate-driven abnormal source of CO 2 to the atmosphere in response to El Niño anomalies. Here a good model performance rests upon a realistic simulation of ENSO-type climate variability and the subsequent tropical carbon cycle response. The three climate models underestimate the sea surface temperature warm anomaly during an El Niño, but HadCM3LC does best in reproducing the interannual CO 2 variability. More efforts are needed to further develop metrics for assessing the sensitivity of the carbon cycle to climate change, and this work should now be extended to assess ocean carbon models against observations.

Published
2010

287. Water-use efficiency and transpiration across European forests during the Anthropocene

Author

Frank, D. C., primary, Poulter, B., additional, Saurer, M., additional, Esper, J., additional, Huntingford, C., additional, Helle, G., additional, Treydte, K., additional, Zimmermann, N. E., additional, Schleser, G. H., additional, Ahlström, A., additional, Ciais, P., additional, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Levis, S., additional, Lomas, M., additional, Sitch, S., additional, Viovy, N., additional, Andreu-Hayles, L., additional, Bednarz, Z., additional, Berninger, F., additional, Boettger, T., additional, D‘Alessandro, C. M., additional, Daux, V., additional, Filot, M., additional, Grabner, M., additional, Gutierrez, E., additional, Haupt, M., additional, Hilasvuori, E., additional, Jungner, H., additional, Kalela-Brundin, M., additional, Krapiec, M., additional, Leuenberger, M., additional, Loader, N. J., additional, Marah, H., additional, Masson-Delmotte, V., additional, Pazdur, A., additional, Pawelczyk, S., additional, Pierre, M., additional, Planells, O., additional, Pukiene, R., additional, Reynolds-Henne, C. E., additional, Rinne, K. T., additional, Saracino, A., additional, Sonninen, E., additional, Stievenard, M., additional, Switsur, V. R., additional, Szczepanek, M., additional, Szychowska-Krapiec, E., additional, Todaro, L., additional, Waterhouse, J. S., additional, and Weigl, M., additional

Published
2015
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288. Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model: 2. Role of the nitrogen cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance

Author

Zaehle, S., Friend, A., Friedlingstein, P., Dentener, F., Peylin, P., Schulz, M., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Biogéochimie et écologie des milieux continentaux (Bioemco), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-AgroParisTech-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract

International audience; Global-scale results of the new O-CN terrestrial biosphere model coupling the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles show that the model produces realistic estimates of presentday C and N stocks and fluxes, despite some regional biases. N availability strongly affects high-latitude foliage area and foliage N, limiting vegetation productivity and present-day high-latitude net C uptake. Anthropogenic N deposition is predicted to have increased net primary productivity due to increases in foliage area and foliage N, contributing 0.2-0.5 Pg C yr À1 to the 1990s global net C uptake. While O-CN's modeled global 1990s terrestrial net C uptake (2.4 Pg C yr À1) is similar to the estimate not accounting for anthropogenic N inputs and N dynamics (2.6 Pg C yr À1), its latitudinal distribution and the sensitivity of the terrestrial C balance to its driving factors are substantially altered by N dynamics, with important implications for future trajectories of the global carbon cycle.

Published
2010

289. Recent trends and drivers of regional sources and sinks of carbon dioxide

Author

Sitch, S., primary, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Gruber, N., additional, Jones, S. D., additional, Murray-Tortarolo, G., additional, Ahlström, A., additional, Doney, S. C., additional, Graven, H., additional, Heinze, C., additional, Huntingford, C., additional, Levis, S., additional, Levy, P. E., additional, Lomas, M., additional, Poulter, B., additional, Viovy, N., additional, Zaehle, S., additional, Zeng, N., additional, Arneth, A., additional, Bonan, G., additional, Bopp, L., additional, Canadell, J. G., additional, Chevallier, F., additional, Ciais, P., additional, Ellis, R., additional, Gloor, M., additional, Peylin, P., additional, Piao, S. L., additional, Le Quéré, C., additional, Smith, B., additional, Zhu, Z., additional, and Myneni, R., additional

Published
2015
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290. Carbon and nitrogen cycle dynamics in the O-CN land surface model, II: The role of the nitrogen cycle in the historical terrestrial carbon balance

Author

Zaehle, S., Friend, A., Dentener, F., Friedlingstein, P., Peylin, P., and Schulz, M.

Abstract

Global-scale results of the new O-CN terrestrial biosphere model coupling the carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) cycles show that the model produces realistic estimates of present-day C and N stocks and fluxes, despite some regional biases. N availability strongly affects high-latitude foliage area and foliage N, limiting vegetation productivity and present-day high-latitude net C uptake. Anthropogenic N deposition is predicted to have increased net primary productivity due to increases in foliage area and foliage N, contributing 0.2–0.5 Pg C yr−1 to the 1990s global net C uptake. While O‐CN's modeled global 1990s terrestrial net C uptake (2.4 Pg C yr−1) is similar to the estimate not accounting for anthropogenic N inputs and N dynamics (2.6 Pg C yr−1), its latitudinal distribution and the sensitivity of the terrestrial C balance to its driving factors are substantially altered by N dynamics, with important implications for future trajectories of the global carbon cycle.

Published
2010

292. Chapitre 3 : Comment reconstituer l'évolution des différentes composantes du système climatique. La biochimie du système climatique au cours du dernier million d'années

Author

Bopp, L., Chappellaz, Jérôme, Delmas, Robert, Friedlingstein, P., Legrand, Michel, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CLIPS, Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de l'Atmosphère et des Cyclones (LACy), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France, CHANG (CHANG), Laboratoire d'étude des transferts en hydrologie et environnement (LTHE), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), J.C. Duplessy and G. Ramstein, Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Météo France-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CHANG, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Météo France-Université de La Réunion (UR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut National Polytechnique de Grenoble (INPG)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), and Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB [Université de Savoie] [Université de Chambéry])-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)

Subjects
[SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology
Published
2010

293. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

Author

Raupach, MR, Raupach, MR, Davis, SJ, Peters, GP, Andrew, RM, Canadell, JG, Ciais, P, Friedlingstein, P, Jotzo, F, Van Vuuren, DP, Le Quéré, C, Raupach, MR, Raupach, MR, Davis, SJ, Peters, GP, Andrew, RM, Canadell, JG, Ciais, P, Friedlingstein, P, Jotzo, F, Van Vuuren, DP, and Le Quéré, C

Abstract

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2°C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.

Published
2014

294. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

Author

Environmental Sciences, Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R. M., Rogelj, J., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, M. R., Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, Detlef, Le Quéré, C., Environmental Sciences, Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R. M., Rogelj, J., Peters, G. P., Canadell, J. G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, M. R., Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, Detlef, and Le Quéré, C.

Published
2014

295. Global carbon budget 2013

Author

Environmental Sciences, Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T. A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Houghton, R. A., Marland, G., Moriarty, R., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Arvanitis, A., Bakker, D. C E, Bopp, L., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Doney, S. C., Harper, A., Harris, I., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Jones, S. D., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Körtzinger, A., Koven, C., Lefèvre, N., Maignan, F., Omar, A., Ono, T., Park, G. H., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schwinger, J., Segschneider, J., Stocker, B. D., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., Van Heuven, S., Viovy, N., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., Zaehle, S., Environmental Sciences, Le Quéré, C., Peters, G. P., Andres, R. J., Andrew, R. M., Boden, T. A., Ciais, P., Friedlingstein, P., Houghton, R. A., Marland, G., Moriarty, R., Sitch, S., Tans, P., Arneth, A., Arvanitis, A., Bakker, D. C E, Bopp, L., Canadell, J. G., Chini, L. P., Doney, S. C., Harper, A., Harris, I., House, J. I., Jain, A. K., Jones, S. D., Kato, E., Keeling, R. F., Klein Goldewijk, Kees, Körtzinger, A., Koven, C., Lefèvre, N., Maignan, F., Omar, A., Ono, T., Park, G. H., Pfeil, B., Poulter, B., Raupach, M. R., Regnier, P., Rödenbeck, C., Saito, S., Schwinger, J., Segschneider, J., Stocker, B. D., Takahashi, T., Tilbrook, B., Van Heuven, S., Viovy, N., Wanninkhof, R., Wiltshire, A., and Zaehle, S.

Published
2014

296. Climate Change 2014: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

Author

Pachauri, R.K., Meyer, L., Pachauri, R. K., Allen, M. R., Barros, V. R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., Church, J. A., Clarke, L., Dahe, Q., Dasgupta, P., Dubash, N. K., Edenhofer, O., Elgizouli, I., Field, C. B., Forster, P., Friedlingstein, P., Fuglestvedt, J., Gomez-Echeverri, L., Hallegatte, S., Hegerl, G., Howden, M., Jiang, K., Jimenez Cisneroz, B., Kattsov, V., Lee, H., Mach, K. J., Marotzke, J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Minx, J., Mulugetta, Y., O'Brien, K., Oppenheimer, M., Pereira, J. J., Pichs-Madruga, R., Plattner, G.-K., Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Power, S. B., Preston, B., Ravindranath, N. H., Reisinger, A., Riahi, K., Rusticucci, M., Scholes, R., Seyboth, K., Sokona, Y., Stavins, R., Stocker, T. F., Tschakert, P., van Vuuren, D., van Ypserle, J.-P., Pachauri, R.K., Meyer, L., Pachauri, R. K., Allen, M. R., Barros, V. R., Broome, J., Cramer, W., Christ, R., Church, J. A., Clarke, L., Dahe, Q., Dasgupta, P., Dubash, N. K., Edenhofer, O., Elgizouli, I., Field, C. B., Forster, P., Friedlingstein, P., Fuglestvedt, J., Gomez-Echeverri, L., Hallegatte, S., Hegerl, G., Howden, M., Jiang, K., Jimenez Cisneroz, B., Kattsov, V., Lee, H., Mach, K. J., Marotzke, J., Mastrandrea, M. D., Minx, J., Mulugetta, Y., O'Brien, K., Oppenheimer, M., Pereira, J. J., Pichs-Madruga, R., Plattner, G.-K., Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Power, S. B., Preston, B., Ravindranath, N. H., Reisinger, A., Riahi, K., Rusticucci, M., Scholes, R., Seyboth, K., Sokona, Y., Stavins, R., Stocker, T. F., Tschakert, P., van Vuuren, D., and van Ypserle, J.-P.

Published
2014

297. Sharing a quota on cumulative carbon emissions

Author

Raupach, Michael, Davis, Steven J., Peters, Glen P., Andrew, Robbie M, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Friedlingstein , P., Jotzo, Frank, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, Le Quere, C., Raupach, Michael, Davis, Steven J., Peters, Glen P., Andrew, Robbie M, Canadell, Josep G., Ciais, Philippe, Friedlingstein , P., Jotzo, Frank, Vuuren, Detlef P. van, and Le Quere, C.

Abstract

Any limit on future global warming is associated with a quota on cumulative global CO2 emissions. We translate this global carbon quota to regional and national scales, on a spectrum of sharing principles that extends from continuation of the present distribution of emissions to an equal per-capita distribution of cumulative emissions. A blend of these endpoints emerges as the most viable option. For a carbon quota consistent with a 2 °C warming limit (relative to pre-industrial levels), the necessary long-term mitigation rates are very challenging (typically over 5% per year), both because of strong limits on future emissions from the global carbon quota and also the likely short-term persistence in emissions growth in many regions.

Published
2014

298. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

Author

Friedlingstein , P., Andrew, Robbie M, Rogelj, J., Peters, G.P., Canadell, Josep G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, Michael, Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Le Quere, C., Friedlingstein , P., Andrew, Robbie M, Rogelj, J., Peters, G.P., Canadell, Josep G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, Michael, Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, D.P., and Le Quere, C.

Abstract

Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2°C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.

Published
2014

299. Persistent growth of CO2 emissions and implications for reaching climate targets

Author

Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R.M., Rogelj, J., Peters, G.P., Canadell, J.G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, M.R., Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, D.P., Le Quere, C., Friedlingstein, P., Andrew, R.M., Rogelj, J., Peters, G.P., Canadell, J.G., Knutti, R., Luderer, G., Raupach, M.R., Schaeffer, M., van Vuuren, D.P., and Le Quere, C.

Abstract

Efforts to limit climate change below a given temperature level require that global emissions of CO2 cumulated over time remain below a limited quota. This quota varies depending on the temperature level, the desired probability of staying below this level and the contributions of other gases. In spite of this restriction, global emissions of CO2 from fossil fuel combustion and cement production have continued to grow by 2.5% per year on average over the past decade. Two thirds of the CO2 emission quota consistent with a 2 degree C temperature limit has already been used, and the total quota will likely be exhausted in a further 30 years at the 2014 emissions rates. We show that CO2 emissions track the high end of the latest generation of emissions scenarios, due to lower than anticipated carbon intensity improvements of emerging economies and higher global gross domestic product growth. In the absence of more stringent mitigation, these trends are set to continue and further reduce the remaining quota until the onset of a potential new climate agreement in 2020. Breaking current emission trends in the short term is key to retaining credible climate targets within a rapidly diminishing emission quota.

Published
2014

300. Modelling the role of fires in the terrestrial carbon balance by incorporating SPITFIRE into the global vegetation model ORCHIDEE – Part 1: simulating historical global burned area and fire regimes

Author

Yue, C., primary, Ciais, P., additional, Cadule, P., additional, Thonicke, K., additional, Archibald, S., additional, Poulter, B., additional, Hao, W. M., additional, Hantson, S., additional, Mouillot, F., additional, Friedlingstein, P., additional, Maignan, F., additional, and Viovy, N., additional

Published
2014
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