251. Potential sources of bias in the use of Escherichia coli to measure waterborne diarrhoea risk in low-income settings.
- Author
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Ercumen, Ayse, Arnold, Benjamin F., Naser, Abu Mohd., Unicomb, Leanne, Colford, John M., Luby, Stephen P., and Colford, John M Jr
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WATERBORNE infection , *WATER quality monitoring , *ESCHERICHIA coli , *DIARRHEA , *DISEASE prevalence , *PREVENTION , *LONGITUDINAL method , *PUBLIC health surveillance , *TIME , *WATER supply , *CROSS-sectional method ,DEVELOPING countries ,RESEARCH evaluation - Abstract
Objectives: Escherichia coli is the standard water quality indicator for diarrhoea risk. Yet, the association between E. coli and diarrhoea is inconsistent across studies without a systematic assessment of methodological differences behind this variation. Most studies measure water quality cross-sectionally with diarrhoea, risking exposure misclassification and reverse causation. Studies use different recall windows for self-reported diarrhoea; longer periods increase potential outcome misclassification through misrecall. Control of confounding is inconsistent across studies. Additionally, diarrhoea measured in unblinded intervention trials can present courtesy bias. We utilised measurements from a randomised trial of water interventions in Bangladesh to assess how these factors affect the E. coli-diarrhoea association.Methods: We compared cross-sectional versus prospective measurements of water quality and diarrhoea, 2-versus 7-day symptom recall periods, estimates with and without controlling for confounding and using measurements from control versus intervention arms of the trial.Results: In the control arm, 2-day diarrhoea prevalence, measured prospectively 1 month after water quality, significantly increased with log10 E. coli (PR = 1.50, 1.02-2.20). This association weakened when we used 7-day recall (PR = 1.18, 0.88-1.57), cross-sectional measurements of E. coli and diarrhoea (PR = 1.11, 0.79-1.56) or did not control for confounding (PR = 1.20, 0.88-1.62). Including data from intervention arms led to less interpretable associations, potentially due to courtesy bias, effect modification and/or reverse causation.Conclusions: By systematically addressing potential sources of bias, our analysis demonstrates a clear relationship between E. coli in drinking water and diarrhoea, suggesting that the continued use of E. coli as an indicator of waterborne diarrhoea risk is justified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]- Published
- 2017
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