201. Agent-based evolving network modeling: a new simulation method for modeling low prevalence infectious diseases
- Author
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Matthew Eden, Buyannemekh Munkhbat, Chaitra Gopalappa, Rebecca Castonguay, and Hari Balasubramanian
- Subjects
Computer science ,Distributed computing ,Population ,Medicine (miscellaneous) ,Network modeling ,Communicable Diseases ,Article ,Sexual partnership ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,Prevalence ,Humans ,Computer Simulation ,030212 general & internal medicine ,education ,030304 developmental biology ,Network model ,Structure (mathematical logic) ,Needle sharing ,Agent-based simulation ,0303 health sciences ,education.field_of_study ,Scale-free network ,Network generation ,Graph theory ,Health Services ,Disease modeling ,Scale-free networks ,General Health Professions ,Algorithms - Abstract
Agent-based network modeling (ABNM) simulates each person at the individual-level as agents of the simulation, and uses network generation algorithms to generate the network of contacts between individuals. ABNM are suitable for simulating individual-level dynamics of infectious diseases, especially for diseases such as HIV that spread through close contacts within intricate contact networks. However, as ABNM simulates a scaled-version of the full population, consisting of all infected and susceptible persons, they are computationally infeasible for studying certain questions in low prevalence diseases such as HIV. We present a new simulation technique, agent-based evolving network modeling (ABENM), which includes a new network generation algorithm, Evolving Contact Network Algorithm (ECNA), for generating scale-free networks. ABENM simulates only infected persons and their immediate contacts at the individual-level as agents of the simulation, and uses the ECNA for generating the contact structures between these individuals. All other susceptible persons are modeled using a compartmental modeling structure. Thus, ABENM has a hybrid agent-based and compartmental modeling structure. The ECNA uses concepts from graph theory for generating scale-free networks. Multiple social networks, including sexual partnership networks and needle sharing networks among injecting drug-users, are known to follow a scale-free network structure. Numerical results comparing ABENM with ABNM estimations for disease trajectories of hypothetical diseases transmitted on scale-free contact networks are promising for application to low prevalence diseases.
- Published
- 2021
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