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PT Tri Mandiri Selaras is a showroom company of Daihatsu cars equipped with authorized workshops for routine checks and maintenance as well as vehicle engine repair customers who are located on Aji Lake RT.05 Malay Village Kutai Kartanegara Regency. The number of employees working on PT Tri Mandiri Selaras are 26 people divided into 7 people mechanics, 6 administrators, 4 sales people, 2 office boys, 2 cashiers, 1 person, 1 head marketing and 3 human resouch developmen. The study was conducted in April 2018, the population data available in April 2018 was 25 people and the number of samples used in this study were 25 people. The analysis tools used are multiple regression analysis and hypothesis testing using F test and t test with the help of SPSS For Window 20.0. The results of F test calculations (simultaneous correlation / joint), variable punisment (X1) and reward (X2) simultaneously affect employee work discipline. Then the independent variables have a significant relationship or employee discipline variables influenced by the variable punisment (X1) and reward (X2). From both result of partial correlation test above seen the biggest punisment variable value compared to reward variable, so the punisment variable is the most dominant variable affecting employee work discipline. Keywords: Punishment, Reward, Work Discipline

Objectives To examine the short-term effects of admission requirements for upper secondary vocational education and training (VET) on enrollment and criminal offending among academically low-achieving boys. Methods We apply multi-group difference-in-differences models to full population data and analyze an educational policy reform in Denmark (N = 60,759). Results The reform caused a 16 percentage points lower enrollment in VET among academically low-achieving boys, and their risk of being charged with a crime increased by up to two percentage points 9 months after the end of compulsory school. However, after 12 months, the effect on criminal charges disappeared. Conclusion In the education-crime nexus, educational enrollment in upper secondary education is an understudied margin, which has important implications for both scholars and policy-makers. Limitations include the short follow-up period and that the analyses examine effects for boys only.

Based on Remote Sensing image processing and Geographic Information Systems analysis, population-dependent urban structures can be accurately monitored, analysed, and potential spatial or environmental problems restrained by professional land use management. In this study, the city of Nizip, located within the province of Gaziantep, was evaluated in this perspective and its development in the last thirty years was determined. The satellite images of 1990 and 2019 were evaluated within the framework of CORINE land classification system. The controlled classification method was implemented in the analysis and the city's growth rate and direction were determined while land cover changes were investigated both statistically and spatially. According to the analysis, residential areas in the study area, which were 555 ha in 1990, exceeded 1000 ha in 2019, due to industrialization and population growth. Urban sprawl was observed in NE and E directions. In addition, the bare lands of the city have been converted to dry agricultural lands in the last three decades which is supposedly due to long term climate effects. Along with the increasing industrialization movement in this period, the population increased by 30% on average in the central neighbourhoods. Migration from evacuated villages to the city centre following dam construction and water impoundment phases has increased the population. Rapid urbanization is also observed alongside newly built highways and motorways. Regarding increasing population movements in recent years, it is predicted that there could be spatial and environmental problems due to rapid and unplanned urbanization in Nizip city. It is stated that the elimination of these problems can be carried out through accurate and planned land use decision support systems., Uzaktan Algılama (UA) görüntü işleme ve Coğrafi Bilgi Sistemleri (CBS) analiz yöntemleri ile nüfusa bağlı değişen şehir yapılanmaları doğru bir şekilde izlenebilmekte, analiz edilebilmekte ve olası mekânsal veya çevresel sorunlar profesyonel arazi kullanımı yönetimi ile kontrol altında tutulabilmektedir. Bu çalışmada Gaziantep il sınırı içerisinde yer alan Nizip şehri, bu perspektifte değerlendirilerek, son otuz yıl içerisindeki gelişimi Uzaktan Algılama yöntemi ile belirlenmiştir. 1990 ve 2019 yıllarına ait uydu görüntüleri CORINE arazi sınıflandırma çerçevesinde değerlendirilerek, kontrollü sınıflandırma yöntemi uygulanarak, şehrin büyüme oranı ve yönü belirlenmiş, arazi örtüsü değişimleri istatistiksel ve mekânsal olarak değerlendirilmiştir. Buna göre endüstrileşme ve nüfus artışına bağlı olarak 1990 yılında 555 ha olan yerleşim alanları 2019 yılına gelindiğinde 1000 ha alanı geçmiştir. Şehirleşme KD ve D yönünde gerçeklemiştir. Ayrıca çalışma alanında var olan çıplak alanların uzun süreli iklimsel etkilerle kuru tarım arazilerine dönüştürüldüğü düşünülmektedir. Bu dönemde artan endüstrileşme hamleleri ile birlikte, nüfus merkez mahallelerde ortalama %30 oranında yükselmiştir. Şehrin doğusunda yer alan baraj inşaatı ile birlikte, kamusallaştırılan ve boşaltılan köylerden şehir merkezine doğru göç artmıştır. Şehirleşme ayrıca yeni açılan otoyol ve duble yollar çevresinde de hızla arttığı görülmektedir. Son yıllarda artan bu nüfus hareketlerine bağlı olarak Nizip şehrinde, hızlı ve plansız şehirleşme kaynaklı mekânsal ve çevresel sorunlar oluşabileceği öngörülmektedir. Bu sorunların kaldırılması doğru ve planlı arazi kullanım karar destek sistemleri ile olabileceği ifade edilmektedir.

OBJECTIVE To analyse mortality rate trends in Spain for oral cavity and oropharyngeal cancer (OCOPC) from 1979 to 2018, evaluating differences between oral cavity cancer (OCC) and oropharyngeal cancer (OPC). MATERIALS AND METHODS Death certificates and mid-year population data were collected from the Spanish National Statistics Institute. Age-standardized mortality rates were calculated using the direct method. Joinpoint regressions were used to identify significant changes in mortality trends. Independent effects of age, period and cohort (APC) were estimated. RESULTS A total of 52,057 deaths were registered from OCOPC, 38,988 from OCC and 13,069 from OPC between 1979 and 2018. While OCC mortality rates declined, OCOPC rates increased slightly and OPC significantly. OCC and OPC mortality reached their highest values between 1979 and 1992, when OCC rates began to decrease in males and OPC levelled off until 2018. Lip cancer suffered the highest drop. APC models showed a mortality increase in males and females from 40 to 45 and 50 to 55 years of age, respectively. CONCLUSIONS Favourable OCC mortality trends was plausibly influenced by decreased tobacco/alcohol consumption, while OPC rise was probably associated with increased human papillomavirus infection. The importance of closely monitoring these cancers by age group, sex and location, and continuing with preventive measures against known risk factors, is highlighted.

Background Sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) accounts for a large percentage of deaths in children with epilepsy. Contributing factors to paediatric SUDEP are incompletely understood. Aims of study The Epilepsy Deaths Register (EDR) is an anonymized register that compiles information on deaths related to epilepsy, across all ages and epilepsy classifications. Using the EDR, we sought to identify key risk factors for SUDEP in children to assist the development of preventive measures. Methods All registrations between the ages of 1 and 16 years were reviewed to identify definite or probable SUDEP. These cases were analysed to identify common demographics, comorbidities, monitoring, treatments and circumstances near to the deaths. Results We identified forty-six cases (27 males) of definite or probable SUDEP. Paediatric SUDEP is more common in a 12- to 16-year age group and in those with neuro-disability. Most paediatric SUDEP occurs during apparent sleep. There were four cases with a vagus nerve stimulator. SUDEP can occur early after the onset of seizures. Conclusions This is the largest single cohort of SUDEP reported in children. Reports from caregivers can augment population data. Surveillance in sleep is a priority area of development.

Fine-grained inner-annual population data are instrumental in climate change response, resource allocation, and epidemic control. However, such data are currently scarce due to the lack of human-re...

Maraknya pemberitaan media sosial berjudul “75 Tahun Merdeka Tapi Katong Belum Merdeka” ditampilkan kegiatan warga pedalaman Buru Selatan sebagai pengguna sarana perlintasan menyeberangi sungai Nalbessy. Keselamatan Pengguna sarana dipertaruhkan karena beresiko putus, dan dapat berakibat fatal bila hanyut terbawa derasnya arus sungai. Maraknya pemberitaan media kemudian penulis mengkaji kebutuhan sarana perlintasan bagi warga pedalaman Buru Selatan untuk melintasi sungai Nalbessy. Kajian bertujuan: Menelusuri lokasi dimana kegiatan warga melintasi Sungai Nalbessy, dan mengalisis potensi pengguna sarana perlintasan berdasarkan data kependudukan. Menyajikan history jalan dan jembatan di sekitar Desa Liang dan Neath dalam bentuk stripmap penanganan ruas Namrole – Leksula. Metode penelusuran menggunakan aplikasi Google Earth, tahapan kajian terstruktur dan sistematis sesuai kaidah ilmiah bersumber dari data sekunder. Hasil kajian disimpulkan: Lokasi perlintasan Sungai Nalbessy terletak -3,7628º LS dan 126,5444º BT di Kec. Leksula, Kab. Buru Selatan Provinsi Maluku. Lokasi dimana oleh Dinas PUPR Provinsi Maluku telah direncanakan pembangunan jembatan Wai Nalbessy III. Ruas Namrole–Leksula melintasi 2 desa permukiman warga pedalaman Buru Selatan (Liang dan Neath). Penanganan jalan hingga tahun 2019, kondisi perkerasan masih belum seragam terdiri atas 3 jenis perkerasan: Hotmix 7.0 Km, Timbunan Pilihan 4.0 Km, dan Jalan Tanah 42.0 Km. Penanganan ruas jalan provinsi telah dibangun 3 jembatan dari rencana 33 jembatan. Perkiraan biaya pembangunan, waktu pelaksanaan jembatan bentang 50 meter Wai Nalbessy III, menurut jenis konstruksi, masing-masing: Rp. 4 M, 4 bulan untuk Jembatan gantung pejalan kaki simetris, Rp. 15 M, 10 bulan untuk Rangka Baja, dan Rp. 20 M, 1 Tahun untuk Jembatan beton/GTI.

The development of technology in modern times today encourages every aspect of work to be done through the computerization, with the aim to facilitate the processing of data. In addition, by the application of technology, the time and place for data storage will be more efficient, resulting in accurate and accurate residents’ data, and can be conveyed properly to those in need. Manual data processing is considered less effective in processing and calculating the large data, and this can result in the data loss. These undesirable mistakes will be very detrimental to the development of residents’ data contained in RT 04, Kalisuren. By the presence of the data collection application for the residents in RT 04, Kalisuren, the data collection process for both births and deaths that occurred in RT 04 Kalisuren can be carried out properly. Abstrak Teknologi yang semakin berkembang mendorong setiap aspek untuk merubah pekerjaan yang tadinya dikerjakan secara manual menjadi komputerisasi. Dengan tujuan mepermudah dalam proses pengelohan data. Selain itu dengan adanya aplikasi dapat mengefisienkan waktu dan tempat penyimpanan data. Oleh karena itu untuk menghasilkan data warga yang tepat dan akurat, agar dapat disampaikan dengan baik kepada yang membutuhkan. Pengolahan data secara manual bukanlah suatu hal yang salah, namun cara tersebut kurang efektif untuk melakukan pengolahan dan perhitungan data yang besar, dan hal ini dapat mengakibatkan terjadinya kehilangan data. Kesalahan-kesalahan yang tidak diinginkan itu akan sangat merugikan untuk perkembangan pedataan warga yang terdapat pada RT 04 Kalisuren. Dengan adanya aplikasi pendataan warga RT 04 kalisuren dapat membantu RT dalam proses pendataan baik kelahiran ataupun kematian yng terjadi di RT 04 Kalisuren.

Background Temporal trends in colectomy rate for ulcerative colitis (UC) are particularly relevant in the current era of published IBD standards and changing approach to salvage of acute severe disease. Aims To investigate temporal trends in colectomy for UC using English population data. Methods The Hospital Episode Statistics (HES) were interrogated between 2003-2016 with two patient groups investigated independently. An 'emergency' cohort: emergency UC admission ≥ three days, age ≥18 and a 'total population' cohort: all English patients undergoing colectomy for UC. Mixed methods analyses were utilised. Results Emergency cohort: 37 981 patients, 49% female, median age 46. The one- and three-year incidence of colectomy after acute admission was 0.17 and 0.21. Interrupted time series (ITS) analysis suggested reductions in colectomy rate of 4% per year after 2008 at 30 and 90 days following emergency admission, with no significant reduction ≥1 year. Mortality and laparoscopy rates improved when avoiding colectomy at index and emergency admissions; however, the proportion of emergency colectomies after salvage at index admission significantly increased during the study period. Total population cohort: 17 580 patients underwent colectomy for UC between 2003 and 2016, demonstrating a 3.1% annual reduction in total and elective colectomies after 2008, but no reduction in emergency colectomies. Conclusion Reductions in short-term colectomy rates after emergency admission for UC do not persist beyond one year. Emergency colectomy rates remain unchanged. Reduced rates are probably due to multi-modal improvements in IBD care. A lack of data regarding disease severity precludes further interpretation of appropriate medical salvage and timely surgery.

Population data management is a very important thing in a government agency. Information about the village is important to provide information to the community. This research was conducted in Tulang Bawang State village of Bunga Mayang district of North Lampung. Currently, the management of population data is still done by conventional, by storing data in the form of documents recorded. To facilitate the management of such data, it is necessary to make the village information system fast and accurate. This system uses waterfall development method. Analysis, design, recording, testing, and maintenance. The result of the evaluation of the village information system of Tulang Bawang State, the assessment for satisfaction is at an average of 78.38% aspect of the display or in category good. The test results showed that the functions in the village information system of Tulang Bawang state have been able to run well according to what was given. So it can be concluded that the system is working well to help the village staff work in the management of population data and make logging more accurate.

Background Recent studies suggest that cutaneous melanoma mortality rates in Spain are stabilizing and even decreasing in younger cohorts. Objectives To analyse mortality rates of melanoma from the last 40 years, focusing on changes related with the development of new therapeutic approaches. Methods Death records and mid‐year population data were collected from the National Statistics Institute. By using the direct method, age‐standardized mortality rates were calculated for overall population and for each sex and age group. Significant changes in mortality trends were identified by Joinpoint regressions. The independent effects of age, period and cohort (APC) and potential years of life lost (PYLL) due to melanoma were also analysed. Results Age‐standardized melanoma mortality rates rose in Spain from 0.78 to 2.13 deaths per 100 000 from the first to the last quinquennium of the study (1979–1983 to 2014–2018) for the overall population. After a marked increase until 1995, mortality rates levelled off. Following this stabilization, from 2015 to 2018 there was a decrease in mortality rates for the overall population (average annual per cent change (AAPC): −4.3, not significant), more accused in males over 64 years old (yo). A period effect was observed from the beginning of 21st century, with mortality rates dropping to date. Conclusions There is a decrease in melanoma mortality rates from 2015 in all age groups that confirms previous trends in mortality in younger cohorts. Improvement in diagnosis and development of new therapies for advanced melanoma may have a crucial role in this event. Close monitoring of melanoma mortality rates is necessary to confirm these trends.

As cidades de Araguaína/TO, Imperatriz/MA e Marabá/PA fazem parte da chamada Amazônia Legal, caracterizam-se como cidades médias e são classificadas como capitais regionais C pelo IBGE. Cada uma delas é referência em suas respectivas regiões geográficas intermediárias e limítrofes entre si. O objetivo do trabalho é demonstrar que as três localidades, apesar de apresentarem crescimento econômico e demográfico forte, padecem de problemas sociais e estruturais que diminuem a qualidade de vida de sua população. Para tanto, utilizou-se de dados secundários das fontes IBGE – Cidades, Atlas do Desenvolvimento Humano, Instituto Trata Brasil, IPEADATA e Comex Stat referentes a crescimento demográfico, exportações, IDH, PIB, homicídios, Cadastro Único, Programa Bolsa Família, acesso à água, à coleta e ao tratamento de esgoto. Como resultado percebemos que há crescimento demográfico, econômico e de exportações, bem como renda per capita acima da média nacional, qualificando as cidades médias estudadas como efeitos promissores das políticas de desenvolvimento para a Amazônia; contudo os dados de saneamento básico, homicídios e população no cadastro único demonstram que os aspectos econômicos não se reverteram em bem-estar-social. Concluiu-se que os dados induzem à compreensão de que mesmo com todo crescimento econômico, as liberdades instrumentais e substantivas ainda permanecem relegadas e que uma das possibilidades de superação está num olhar mais integrado das três cidades em termos geográficos e administrativos.

The aim of the study was to analyze the results of screening for chromosomal aberrations in a population with a high rate of first-trimester screening and low rate of cell-free DNA testing.The data were obtained from the National Registry of Congenital Anomalies of the Czech Republic. We calculated and compared the proportion of autosomal trisomies (Down, Edwards, and Patau syndrome) and of other chromosomal aberrations identified during prenatal diagnostics.We identified 3009 prenatally diagnosed cases of chromosomal aberrations in the 2012-2016 period. The number of major autosomal trisomies has increased from 329 cases (30.86 per 10,000 live births) in 2012 to 423 cases (37.41) in 2016 (Our population-based study confirmed a decrease in prenatal detection of nonmajor chromosomal aberrations wherein a decrease of invasive testing occurred. With the introduction of cell-free DNA testing, further decrease of invasive procedures and detection of nonmajor aberrations may be expected.

Selenium (Se) presents a dual role to human body, harmful or beneficial, depending on its concentration. The exposure to this element has been associated to coal mining. Health risk assessment allows estimating and evaluating the risks that environmental hazards pose to vulnerable groups of populations. The present study aimed to analyze the risk of exposure to Se through multiple exposure pathways in children living in Candiota city, where the largest coal reserve of Brazil is located. Data from previous environmental (air, soil, drinking water, and food) and population parameters (age, weight, and food intake) were used to assess the health risk, which was calculated with real values (extracted from the population) and fixed reference values, based on the USEPA recommendation. Most of the children had low health risk (HQ < 1); however, in the most conservative scenarios (higher Se values in the different matrices), there was a high health risk in both scenarios, using population data or the USEPA parameters. The mean HQ using reference values was twice higher than using real values. Se content in air, soil, and drinking water did not represent important average daily dose in both scenarios. While, food intake was a main source of Se exposure, contributing with 96.9% of total Se intake. The findings of this study reinforce the importance of food intake for exposure to Se and the difference between HQs using population measures and fixed parameters of the USEPA highlights the need for adaptations to local scenarios for a better dimensioning of toxicological risk management actions.

This paper investigates a high-dimensional vector-autoregressive (VAR) model in mortality modeling and forecasting. We propose an extension of the sparse VAR (SVAR) model fitted on the log-mortality improvements, which we name “spatially penalized smoothed VAR” (SSVAR). By adaptively penalizing the coefficients based on the distances between ages, SSVAR not only allows a flexible data-driven sparsity structure of the coefficient matrix but simultaneously ensures interpretable coefficients including cohort effects. Moreover, by incorporating the smoothness penalties, divergence in forecast mortality rates of neighboring ages is largely reduced, compared with the existing SVAR model. A novel estimation approach that uses the accelerated proximal gradient algorithm is proposed to solve SSVAR efficiently. Similarly, we propose estimating the precision matrix of the residuals using a spatially penalized graphical Lasso to further study the dependency structure of the residuals. Using the UK and France population data, we demonstrate that the SSVAR model consistently outperforms the famous Lee–Carter, Hyndman–Ullah, and two VAR-type models in forecasting accuracy. Finally, we discuss the extension of the SSVAR model to multi-population mortality forecasting with an illustrative example that demonstrates its superiority in forecasting over existing approaches.

Young people (ages 12-25) experience the highest risk of developing mental disorders; however, their uptake of and engagement with treatment is low. The study explored sociodemographic predictors of attendance and discontinuation of mental health services in a large, population-based sample.Data were from the minimum data set collected from young people (ages 12-25) who attended headspace, Australia's National Youth Mental Health Foundation, from 2013 to 2017 (N=80,502). Data on key demographic and clinical variables and practitioner ratings of need for ongoing care were analyzed. Cox regression was used to examine the association between sociodemographic factors and rates of discontinuation based on practitioner-rated need for ongoing treatment.The mean±SD number of sessions attended during the first episode of care was 4.6±4.4 sessions (median=3). Session-by-session discontinuation rates ranged from 14% to 19% across 10 sessions. The proportion discontinuing treatment before session 11 was 71.2%. Analysis of a subgroup (N=40,039) showed that 24% of those who discontinued treatment later returned to the same headspace center for a second episode of care. Those who were most at risk of discontinuation were older (ages 18-25), male, heterosexual, Aboriginal or Torres Strait Islander, and living in a rural location.Sociodemographic factors were found to be associated with treatment discontinuation, and some young people followed a pathway in and out of mental health treatment. Further exploration is needed to determine the appropriate length and type of care for specific sociodemographic groups and how best to tailor treatment accordingly.

Significance Estimating a broader set of measures of local eye care provider availability than used in prior research offers information that is useful for policy decisions related to access to eye care. Purpose The purpose of this study was to examine whether policy-relevant information was gained when measures of local eye care provider availability in addition to the estimated travel time (ETT) to the closest provider were estimated for the population 65 years or older in Kentucky, New Mexico, and Oklahoma. These states have expanded surgical scope of practice for optometrists. Methods This study used block group-level population data from the 2010 U.S. Decennial Census and eye care provider office address information from the 2016 Medicare Provider Utilization and Payment Data. Geographic information system analysis was used to calculate ETTs between individuals and eye care providers. Expanded measures of availability included the difference in ETT to an individual's second closest and closest ophthalmologist, the difference in ETT to an individual's closest ophthalmologist and closest optometrist, and whether only one ophthalmologist at the closest office accepted Medicare. Descriptive statistics were calculated for each state and by urbanicity. Results Of the population 65 years or older in each state, between 10.8 (Kentucky) and 16.6% (Oklahoma) had a one-way ETT to the second closest ophthalmologist >15 minutes longer than to the closest ophthalmologist, between 21.1 (Kentucky) and 27.6% (Oklahoma) had a one-way ETT to the closest ophthalmologist >15 minutes longer than to the closest optometrist, and between 56.4 (Kentucky) and 70.0% (Oklahoma) had only one ophthalmologist at the closest office who accepted Medicare. Findings differed substantially by urbanicity. Conclusions Using a portfolio of travel time-based measures enhances the understanding of local eye care provider availability.

Aim A review published in 2015 showed that 331 Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) osteitis cases were globally reported in 1976-2012. The 222 Finnish cases from 1960 to 1988 formed two-thirds of all cases. The present narrative review summarises epidemiological, clinical and immunological findings obtained from this Finnish cohort in relation to data from other countries. Methods Six reports including 93 BCG osteitis cases, which were not included in the 2015 review, were identified from PubMed. Results In all, 424 BCG osteitis cases have been published. Population-based data were available only from Finland and Taiwan. The BCG osteitis incidence in Finnish infants was 6.4/100 000/year in 1960-1988 compared to 3.4/100 000/year in Taiwanese infants in 1998-2012. The incidence in Finland increased to 36.9/100 000 in 1971-1977, and the vaccinations were temporarily discontinued. Over half of lesions were in lower limbs and nearly all were solitary in both cohorts. The outcomes after surgery and chemotherapy were good. Immunology of BCG osteitis was studied only in the Finnish cohort. There were deviations from population data in polymorphisms of genes regulating Toll-like receptors 1, 2 and 6, mannose-binding lectin and interleukin-17A. Conclusion BCG osteitis after vaccination is rare. Preliminary findings in innate immunity raise a question of genetic background.

This paper extends the Arellano-Bond dynamic panel regression model’s covariance estimator to one robust to spatial autocovariance and heteroskedasticity. We apply Kelejian and Prucha’s semi-parametric procedure for estimating covariance matrices that accommodate spatial heteroskedastic autocovariance processes to augment the usual Arellano-Bond covariance estimator. The empirical application examines the jobs-to-people/people-to-jobs conundrum with Carlino and Mill’s regional adjustment model using employment and population data from 2001 to 2018 for Oklahoma’s 77 counties.

Migraine is three times more common in women than in men and is the 4th leading cause of disability in women. Onset of migraine increases at menarche, with peaks in prevalence in the late 30s, and a rapid decline after menopause. While the prevalence is highest among women of childbearing age the frequency of headache and burden of migraine frequently worsens during midlife. Abundant population data suggest that hormonal factors may trigger headache attacks and influence onset and remission. The midlife worsening of migraine is attributed to hormonal fluctuations characteristic of the menopausal transition. Drops in estrogen presumably lead to increased migraine attacks at the time of menses as well as during the menopausal transition. During the menopausal transition, recommended approaches include both acute and preventive non-hormonal and hormonal options as well as behavioral approaches. Herein, is a brief review on the presentation of migraine in women across the lifespan, with special emphasis on midlife and the menopausal transition and implications for treatment.

The number of patients sustaining hip fractures in the Republic of Ireland was expected to increase by 100% from 2004 to 2026. This has not been seen either in local or international literature. Our aim is to assess the age- and sex-specific incidence of hip fractures in patients over the age of 65 years and to determine whether the projected increase in incidence is mirrored in the reality of the Irish experience.This is a retrospective observational cohort study including all patients with a hip fracture from a tertiary referral centre from 2005 to 2015. Population data was obtained from the Central Statistics Office of Ireland.3818 hip fractures in the over 65 age group were recorded. The highest incidence of hip fractures occurred in the 85-90 year old age group. For all ages over 65, the incidence of hip fractures in females over the 10 year period is significantly reducing (p 0.01). There were 955 hip fractures per 100,000 in females in 2010 and 410 per 100,000 in males. In 2014, this had reduced to 668 in females and 332 in males respectively.The annual hip fracture incidence has decreased across both sexes in this study period. This may be associated with preventative measures and introduction of fracture liaison services. This study highlights the importance of investment in preventative strategies for a continued reduction in hip fracture incidence and will help to plan future services.

Population data from the Department of Population and Civil Registration can be used by other agencies according to the needs of that agency. The Department of Population and Civil Registration uses SIAK (Sistem Informasi Administrasi Kependudukan /Population Administration Information System) for its service processes, the SIAK application is an application made by the Director General of Department of Population and Civil Registration of the Ministry of Home Affairs. The SIAK application still has limited features for operators in the District, for this reason the SIDAK application was created for the utilization of population data in Musi Banyuasin Regency. In this SIDAK application, there is no feature available for visualizing graphical data so that the desired data can be easily analyzed in aggregate data. For the data visualization, the authors took the data from the SIAK database conversion to the SIDAK application. The data taken is the aggregate data on the number of populations, mandatory ID card, birth, death, move, arrival, occupation, religion, education, blood group, marital status, persons with disabilities, age groups. Therefore, we need a tool that capable of visualizing population data using a website in the form of a dashboard system at the Department of Population and Civil Registration. This population data visualization system development uses the Extreme Programming method

Opportunity youth, 16- to 24-year-olds who are neither in school nor working, are a population that is difficult to engage and retain in services. Population-level data and local data from coalitio...

AIMS To estimate racial differences in rates of opioid-involved overdose deaths (OOD) between whites and African Americans in the United States from 1999 to 2018 to (1) identify racial variation in the temporal trends of OOD during the 20-year period and (2) compare trends in OOD rates between whites and African Americans using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's (CDC) three defined OOD epidemic periods. METHODS Data were obtained from the CDC wide-ranging on-line data for epidemiological research, which combines OOD data from the National Vital Statistics System, and population data from the US Census Bureau. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate age-adjusted annual percentage change (APC) in OOD by race from 1999 to 2018. RESULTS The temporal trends of OOD varied by race. African Americans had a persistently low rate of OOD and statistically non-significant rate of change in OOD from 1999 to 2012 (APC = 0.47; P > 0.05), with a statistically significant and rapid acceleration in OOD rates in 2012 that persisted to 2018 (APC = 26.16; P

Australia’s population at the highest ages is growing rapidly, driving increasing demand for a whole range of services often required at advanced ages. Unfortunately, official population statistics tend to become less accurate as age increases, especially in the centenarian ages. The aims of the paper are to (i) describe the growth of Australia’s population at the highest ages using methods which that provide greater accuracy and more detail than is available from official statistical sources; (ii) understand the demographic drivers of population growth at these ages; and (iii) urge caution with the use of official population data at the highest ages, and warn of some of the implications of doing so. State-of-the-art extinct generation and survivor ratio methods were employed to prepare robust estimates of Australia’s population by sex and single years of age for each year of the period 1971 to 2018. Results show that Australia’s population at the highest ages is growing very quickly. Over the 20 years to 2018 nonagenarians (those aged 90–99) grew in number from 63,000 to 181,000 (an increase of 185%), but centenarians (aged 100+) increased at an even faster rate, growing by 215% (from about 1300 to 4200). Official population estimates can be relied upon up to about age 85, but at higher ages the quality of single year of age population numbers may be poor. We encourage the ABS to adopt the methods described in this paper to produce official population estimates at the highest ages.

To determine the relationship between CT-derived muscle metrics and standardized metrics of sarcopenia in patients undergoing routine CT imaging. Data collected in 443 consecutive patients included body CT, grip strength, usual gait speed, and responses to SARC-F and FRAIL scale questionnaires. Functional and clinical metrics of sarcopenia were acquired at the time of CT. Metrics were analyzed using the diagnostic framework of the European Working Group on Sarcopenia in Older People (EWGSOP2). The skeletal muscle index (SMI) and skeletal muscle density (SMD) were measured at the T12 and L3 levels. Statistical methods include linear prediction models and ROC analysis. T12-SMD and L3-SMD in women and T12-SMD and L3-SMI in men show weak but significant (p

BACKGROUND Moose (Alces alces L.) populations and moose damage in forests are debated in Nordic countries with dense moose populations. Moose populations and food resources vary greatly, both spatially and temporally, and reliable data covering both variables simultaneously at the same scale have seldom been available. We modelled the effect of moose population density and forest resources on the area of moose damage at regional scale, referring to moose management areas (MMA). Forest data and moose damage data originated from the Finnish National Forest Inventory, and the moose population data came from a Bayesian moose model. For modelling, average values of moose population, damage and forest variables were calculated for the periods 2004–2008 and 2009–2013 for each MMA. The MMAs were further classified into one of four larger geographical zones. The area of moose damage was used as a dependent variable, and the proportions of different types of forests and moose population densities per land area or area of seedling stands as explanatory variables. The relationships were modelled with a linear mixed‐effects model with an exponential spatial correlation structure. RESULTS The area of moose damage was best explained by total forest area, proportions of plantations and mature forests, and moose population density per land area or the proportion of plantations. There were differences among the biogeographical zones in how different variables explained the amount of damage. CONCLUSION The results provide tools for analyzing the regional effects of moose population density and the amount of food resources on the amount of moose damage. This information can be used in reconciling sustainable moose population levels and the amount of damage., We modelled the amount of moose damage with linear mixed effects models by using regional forest structure parameters. The model can be used as a tool in moose management. © 2020 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.

Background The aim of this study was to compare the impact of different flight path models on the calculated population coverage of aeromedical retrieval systems, using the state of Alabama as a case study. Methods Geospatial analysis of U.S. Census Bureau population data using helicopter bases and trauma centers as foci of either circular or elliptical coverage areas. Results Circular isochrone models around helicopter bases or trauma centers suggest that the entire population of Alabama could reach a level I or II trauma center within 60 min. Elliptical isochrones, incorporating outbound and inbound flights, suggest that only 78.8% of the population have ready access to level I or II trauma centers. Conclusion While all three flight path models described have some validity and utility, simplistic circular flight time isochrones around trauma centers and helicopter bases provide overly optimistic estimates of population coverage. The elliptical model provides a more realistic evaluation.

Population projections serve various actors at subnational, national, and international levels as a quantitative basis for political and economic decision-making. Usually, the users are no experts in statistics or forecasting and therefore lack the methodological and demographic background to completely understand methods and limitations behind the projections they use to inform further analysis. Our contribution primarily targets that readership. Therefore, we give a brief overview of different approaches to population projection and discuss their respective advantages and disadvantages, alongside practical problems in population data and forecasting. Fundamental differences between deterministic and stochastic approaches are discussed, with special emphasis on the advantages of stochastic approaches. Next to selected projection data available to the public, we show central areas of application of population projections, with an emphasis on Germany.

Background Shoulder arthroplasty is an increasingly popular treatment option for various shoulder pathologies. The purpose of this study is to evaluate changes in the national demand for shoulder arthroplasty, both anatomic (aTSA) and reverse (rTSA), in the United States and to predict future trends in utilization. Methods National Inpatient Sample (NIS) data was queried through the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project for ICD-9-CM and ICD-10-PCS codes for aTSA and rTSA between 1997 and 2016. The total number of inpatient stays for each year was broken down by gender, age group and the type of prosthesis (aTSA or rTSA). Population data from the United States Census Bureau, stratified by age and gender, were used to generate future population estimates. A linear regression model was created to project future demand for shoulder arthroplasty based on predicted changes in both population and historic trends in utilization. Cost data was used to estimate the total cost of TSAs in the United States. Results The number of combined aTSA and rTSA cases reported in the NIS data has increased from 6,653 in 1997 to 97,995 in 2016, demonstrating a 1,373% increase. Our model predicts that overall shoulder arthroplasty utilization will increase 122% by 2040, while aTSA and rTSA will increase 49% and 122%, respectively by 2025. Utilization of rTSA is projected to be higher than aTSA across all age groups. In ages greater than 84, aTSA utilization is projected to decrease by 20% while rTSA is projected to increase by 120%. Similar growth rates are expected for males and females. The cost analysis estimated that the total cost of TSAs will reach $4 billion by 2030. Conclusion This study demonstrates a projected sustained increase in the demand for shoulder arthroplasty over the next 20 years, with a 122% increase by 2040 due mainly to increased utilization of rTSA. The demand for rTSA is growing at a faster rate and annual utilization has surpassed aTSA. The anticipated increase represents a potentially significant financial burden on the US healthcare system. Level of Evidence IV

Objective Antimicrobial consumption surveillance is a useful tool for planning antimicrobial resistance control strategies and risk analysis. The present study was carried out to evaluate the consumption trends of antimicrobials for veterinary use in food-producing animals in Cameroon from 2014 to 2019. Methods Data on quantities of classes of active substances were collected from the records of the technical authorization to import veterinary drugs of suppliers’ invoices at the Ministry of Livestock (MINEPIA); animal population data were collected from the FAO-Stat database. Results The study revealed that 217.67 tonnes of antimicrobials (by weight of active substance) were imported during the 6-year period, with an average of 36.28 ± 10.11 tonnes per year. Tetracyclines (31.71%), sulfonamides (23.84%), quinolones (11.11%) and β-lactams (10.17%) were the most commonly imported classes of antimicrobials. With regard to the importance of veterinary antimicrobials to human medicine, critically important antimicrobial (34.3%), reserve (4.6%) and watch (25.5%) groups as classified by the WHO AWaRe categorization were recorded. Overall, a mean of 5.24 ± 1.40 mg/PCU (population correction unit) was used in all food-producing animals during the 6-year period. However, the mean quantity of antimicrobials adjusted by animal biomass was highest in poultry (213.32 ± 50.26 mg/kg), followed by pigs (63.04 ± 18.87 mg/kg), cattle (4.11 ± 2.20 mg/kg), sheep (0.83 ± 0.43 mg/kg) and goats (0.47 ± 0.24 mg/kg). Conclusion Strict surveillance systems of antimicrobial consumption in the country are vital to optimize control strategies. Monitoring importation data of veterinary antimicrobial products could be useful for sub-Saharan African countries to quantify consumption and estimate trends for antimicrobial usage effectively.

The increasing demand for rapid methods to identify both inorganic and organic gunshot residues (IGSR and OGSR) makes electrochemical methods, an attractive screening tool to modernize current practice. Our research group has previously demonstrated that electrochemical screening of GSR samples delivers a simple, inexpensive, and sensitive analytical solution that is capable of detecting IGSR and OGSR in less than 10 min per sample. In this study, we expand our previous work by increasing the number of GSR markers and applying machine learning classifiers to the interpretation of a larger population data set. Utilizing bare screen-printed carbon electrodes, the detection and resolution of seven markers (IGSR; lead, antimony, and copper, and OGSR; nitroglycerin, 2,4-dinitrotoluene, diphenylamine, and ethyl centralite) was achieved with limits of detection (LODs) below 1 µg/mL. A large population data set was obtained from 395 authentic shooter samples and 350 background samples. Various statistical methods and machine learning algorithms, including critical thresholds (CT), naïve Bayes (NB), logistic regression (LR), and neural networks (NN), were utilized to calculate the performance and error rates. Neural networks proved to be the best predictor when assessing the dichotomous question of detection of GSR on the hands of shooter versus nonshooter groups. Accuracies for the studied population were 81.8 % (CT), 88.1% (NB), 94.7% (LR), and 95.4% (NN), respectively. The ability to detect both IGSR and OGSR simultaneously provides a selective testing platform for gunshot residues that can provide a powerful field-testing technique and assist with decisions in case management.

Coronavirus pandemic in Indonesia has not subsided yet. There are around 100,303 cases suspected to coronavirus during the five months outbreak. in order to deal with the epidemic, volunteers are needed to help media personnel to prevent the transmission of COVID-19 virus. it is done not only by distributing masks or spraying disinfectant but also by preventing the community from gathering at the public administration services. as a millennial volunteer who understands technology, we try to provide an understanding of the public regarding the administration of online documents. the purpose of this activity is to share knowledge to COVID-19 volunteers while taking care of population data such an e-KTP, birth certificates, and others because it can be done by accessing the DINDUKCAPIL Banyumas website. it is implemented by making presentations and exposure through video conferences via the Cisco Webex Meeting application. the result is the volunteers understand how to handle the population of the online document so that they can share it with their community.

Objective: The study documents the effects of hydrocarbon exploitation (without major oil spills) on soils of a rural community, 5 Km from an E P indicative of a more favorable environment. Chi-square test (chi-square critical value = 9.49 & p-value= 0.05) used to compare observed population data with the expected; showed changes were not random chance but due to E &P activities. The prevailing regulatory approach was incapable of capturing fundamental issues of contemporary continuous, routine release of contaminants. Need to understand the subtle and pernicious effect of E&P operations on neighboring communities. Environmental laws should be reexamined. Applications: Microbes can be used to monitor minute, chronic release of hydrocarbon, inexpensively. They are “markers” in environmental changes even before major pollution, contamination, spillage or devastation occurs. Keywords: Acute contaminants on soils; contamination in nearby communities; oil field’s contaminants; contamination by proximity; chronic pollutants

Data kependudukan memiliki peranan penting bagi keberhasilan pembangunan di suatu daerah, termasuk di Kabupaten Sidoarjo. Data kependudukan yang valid dan dapat dipertanggungjawabkan menjadi syarat mutlak agar kebijakan pembangunan tepat sasaran, mulai dari pemberian bantuan hingga penentuan sasaran dan program pembangunan. Menggunakan pendekatan deskriptif kualitatif, penelitian ini bertujuan mengevaluasi kondisi Rumah Data Kependudukan (Rumah Dataku) di Kabupaten Sidoarjo sekaligus mengidentifikasi tantangan pengembangannya, baik internal maupun eksternal. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa dari 353 Desa/Kelurahan yang ada di Kabupaten Sidoarjo, tercatat hanya 42 Desa/Kelurahan (11,90%) yang telah memiliki kampung KB. Dari jumlah tersebut tidak semuanya memiliki Rumah Dataku, tercatat hanya tiga Kampung KB (7%) yang telah memiliki Rumah Dataku. Dilihat dari aspek ketersediaan, penyajian dan keterbaharuan data yang ada Kampung KB dan Rumah Dataku di Kabupaten Sidoarjo belum menunjukkan kinerja yang menggembirakan. Tantangan internal dan eksternal yang dihadapi dalam pengembangan Rumah Dataku di Kabupaten Sidoarjo antara lain: keterbatasan anggaran, keterbatasan sumber daya (sumber daya manusia dan sarana prasarana pendukung), belum optimalnya koordinasi, serta kurangnya pemahaman dan partisipasi masyarakat. Beberapa upaya yang dapat ditempuh Pemerintah Kabupaten Sidoarjo untuk mengatasi tantangan tersebut antara lain mengadakan kompetisi Kampung KB, menyelenggarakan KKN Tematik, membuat aplikasi untuk Rumah Dataku, meningkatkan peran Pokja Kampung KB, hingga pelatihan untuk pengurus dan penyuluh KB. Kata kunci: Kampung KB, Pengembangan, Rumah Dataku

This research aims to predict the end of the COVID-19 pandemic in Indonesia based on parametric growth models. The models are chosen by considering their fitness with the data of Taiwan which is believed to have passed over the peak of the pandemic and have gone through all phases in the growth curves. The models are parameterized using the nonlinear least squares method. The deviation and confidence interval of each parameter is estimated using the k-fold cross-validation and the bootstrap techniques. Using the total cases per million population data from March 2 to June 18, 2020, it was found that two growth models fit the data, i.e. logistic and modified Gompertz, where the latter performs better. Using the information about the deviation of each model parameter, a simulation model is developed to predict the time at which the total cases curve starts to flatten, which is an indication of the end of the pandemic. It was found with 95% confidence level that based on the modified Gompertz model the pandemic will end somewhere between March 9 – September 7, 2021 with total cases per million of 206 - 555. Meanwhile, based on the logistic growth model, the end of the pandemic is between August 28 – September 23, 2020 with total cases per million of 180 - 375. This model can be extended by making comparative scenario with Taiwan based on measures that represent the quality of the pandemic mitigation such as test ratio and the intensity of social restriction.