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Background: Despite emerging evidence of a delay of migration to older ages, few studies have considered its impact on overall migration levels. Objective: This paper argues that there are two possible implications of delayed migration on overall migration levels: (1) a tempo effect leading to a temporary underestimation of the level of migration in the observed period data and (2) a migration ageing effect leading to a reduction of higher-order moves because the exposure to migration is shifted to older ages when the probability of moving is lower. Methods: Combining hypothetical scenarios with empirical evidence from a range of countries in Europe, North America, Australia, and China, the paper demonstrates the relevance of tempo and ageing effects to migration analysis and proposes a framework for conceptualising these processes. Results: Our analysis suggests that both tempo and ageing effects are likely to occur if the general trend is towards later ages at migration. We show, however, that all-move data such as those collected in censuses is not suitable to analyse tempo effects because changes in migration behaviour are order specific. Drawing on retrospective survey data, we show that in 25 of 26 European countries considered in this paper, individuals who are late in leaving the parental home are less likely to progress to the second move and, as a result, report a lower number of migrations in adulthood than early movers. Contribution: The results underline the need to collect and analyse migration data by move order to understand migration trends while highlighting the paucity of such data.

Background: When analysing effects of maternal age on child outcomes, many researchers estimate sibling models to control for unobserved factors shared between siblings. Some have included birth year in these models, as it is linked to maternal age and may also have independent effects. However, this creates a linear-dependence problem. Objective: One aim is to illustrate how misleading the results may actually be when attempts are made to separate effects of maternal age and birth year in a sibling analysis. Another goal is to present and discuss the multilevel-multiprocess model as an alternative. Methods: Infant mortality was chosen as the outcome. Births and infant deaths were simulated from a multilevel-multiprocess model that included two equations for fertility, with a joint random effect, and one equation for infant mortality, with another random effect. The two random effects were set to be correlated. The effects of the independent variables were taken from simpler models estimated from register data. Various sibling models and multilevel-multiprocess models were estimated from these simulated births and deaths. In some simulations, two standard assumptions about the random effects were intentionally violated. Contribution: The paper illustrates how problematic it is to include both maternal age and birth year in a sibling model. Also, if only maternal age is included, but along with other reproductive variables, small categories should be used. It is argued that a multilevel-multiprocess model may be used instead to separate effects of maternal age and birth year, but this approach also has limitations, which are discussed.

Background: The county-to-county migration data of the Internal Revenue Service's (IRS) is an incredible resource for understanding migration in the United States. Produced annually since 1990 in conjunction with the US Census Bureau, the IRS migration data represents 95Š to 98Š of the tax-filing universe and their dependents, making the IRS migration data one of the largest sources of migration data. However, any analysis using the IRS migration data must process at least seven legacy formats of this public data across more than 2000 data files - a serious burden for migration scholars. Objective: To produce a single, flat data file containing complete county-to-county IRS migration flow data and to make the computer code to process the migration data freely available. Methods: This paper uses R to process more than 2,000 IRS migration files into a single, flat data file for use in migration research. Contribution: To encourage and facilitate the use of this data, we provide a single, standardized, flat data file containing county-to-county one-year migration flows for the period 1990-2010 (containing 163,883 dyadic county pairs resulting in 3.2 million county-year observations totaling over 343 million migrants) and provide the full R script to download, process, and flatten the IRS migration data.

There are few studies on the processes involved in landslides in the soils of the Colombian coffee region in relation to the soil water content. In order to contribute to this knowledge, several experiments over a terrain model under simulated rainfall were conducted. Seven experiments on laboratory slope models, 1.8 m2 base, 1.0 m height, and 32° slope, with soil bulk density and soil horizons arrangement similar to in situ conditions, were built. Samples of altered residual soil derived from granitic rocks were collected in the municipality of Ibagué – Colombia from the surface down to 1.6 m depth. In each laboratory model, eight suction tensiometers (0 to −85 kPa) were located, and measurement under simulated rainfall was done. The results indicated a relationship of mass movements with hydrological processes occurring in the slope, related to soil permeability, rainfall intensity and duration, and water table changes. The major portion of soil slope instability cases was related to a saturated condition of the slope toe.

Many asylum seekers crossed European borders in an irregular manner during the last 2 years and completed their asylum procedure with a negative decision. Based on the limited number of effective orders to leave, it may be argued that a majority of rejected asylum seekers are de-facto staying in the European Union. This paper aims to investigate the nexus between irregular migration and asylum. The analysis focuses on the case of Italy adopting a residual method. The amount of asylum seekers, who have the right of residence in Italy, is subtracted from the number of immigrants who entered Italian borders in an irregular manner from 2015 to 2017: the remainder amount provides an estimation of irregular immigrants generated by the failure of asylum procedure. A short-term migration scenario is settled for 2018 giving empirical-based insights to quantify irregular migrants who are likely to stay in Italy at the beginning of 2019.

Altres ajuts: German Research Foundation-DFG (Grant number: VI711/1-1) BACKGROUND Residential relocations of couple households are associated with increases in objective gender inequality within families in paid and unpaid work. Little is known about how couples' relocations affect subjective outcomes such as attitudes. OBJECTIVE We examine whether gender role attitudes change when families move residentially in Britain, empirically addressing potential explanations. We also assess heterogeneity in outcomes by relocation distance and relocation motive. METHOD We use linear fixed-effects regression on a representative sample of 6,415 partnered women and 6,220 partnered men from the British Household Panel Survey (1991- 2007). RESULTS Our results show that, on average, an individual's gender role attitudes were not significantly altered following a couple's relocation. As an exception, we find that when couples exclusively relocated for the female partner's job, men's gender role attitudes became more egalitarian post-relocation. Preliminary evidence also suggests that women'sgender role attitudes are potentially affected by their exposure to residential contexts. CONTRIBUTION Despite widespread evidence regarding increases in objective gender inequality following couple relocations in Britain, our findings suggest that this does not permeate into subjective outcomes such as attitudes. Beyond expanding the knowledge on subjective sources of gender inequality that follow couples' relocations, our results also contribute to a better understanding of the dynamics of change in gender role attitudes over the life course.

BACKGROUNDIt is often assumed that long-distance migration is dominated by employment or educationally led motives and that local-scale mobility is linked to family and housing adjustments. Unfortunately, few empirical studies examining the relationship between motives and distance exist.OBJECTIVERecognising that the relationships between migration motives and distances are likely to be context-specific, we explore and compare the relationship in three advanced economies: the United Kingdom, Australia, and Sweden.METHODSWe use three sources of nationally representative microdata: the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS) (2009-2018); the Australian Household, Income and Labour Dynamics (HILDA) survey (2001-2016); and a Swedish survey of motives undertaken in spring 2007. LOESS smooth curves are presented for each of six distance-motive trends (Area, Education, Employment, Family, Housing, and Other) in the three countries.RESULTSThe patterns offer some support to the common assumptions. In all three countries, housing is the most commonly cited motive to move locally. Employment is an important motive for longer-distance migration. Yet, interestingly, and consistent across the three national contexts, family-related considerations are shown to be key in motivating both shorter-and longer-distance moves.CONTRIBUTIONOur analysis demonstrates how people move for different reasons, across different distances, in different national contexts. While typically associated with local-scale relocations, family-related motives are rarely mentioned in literature focused on longer-distance migration. The role of family in long-distance migration would thus appear to warrant far more attention than it currently receives.

Background: Southern Europe experienced large-scale migration in the recent decades. Compared to regions with a longer migration history, the assimilation and socialization processes of family formation and age of childbearing for young adults of migrant background is underexplored. Spain, in particular, is now home to a burgeoning second generation of which little is known. Objective: This study explores the family living arrangements of Moroccans in Spain by migrant generation and time, using census microdata from the Integrated Public-Use Microdata Series International (IPUMS-i) and the Spanish Statistical Office (INE). We examine the living arrangements as an estimate for family processes for young adults of Moroccan origin between ages 20 to 34 separately by sex. Methods: Taking a cross-national perspective, we examine the level of coresidence with parent(s), spouse, and child(ren) for young adults aged 20 to 34 in three groups - Moroccans in Spain, nonmigrants in Morocco, and nonmigrants in Spain - using binomial logistic regression. Results: Results show that 1.5 and second generation Moroccan women transition into adulthood at younger ages than their Spanish counterparts, except for the ones who are highly educated. The differences in living arrangements between Moroccans in Spain and the nonmigrant Spanish population widened between 2001 to 2011, possibly due to the fact that coresidence with kin is subject to the influence of migrant stock flow. Contribution: We incorporated a region-of-origin approach in combination with classical assimilation and socialization theories to study migrant family processes in Spain by using living arrangement as a proxy.

Background: This contribution analyzes gender-specific effects of long-distance commuting and residential relocation on the social integration of couples. Research on geographical mobility in the partnership context focused very much on gender differences of regional mobility with respect to labor market outcomes and economic success. The effects of regional mobility and their possibly gendered impact on social networks and the social integration of households have been understudied. However, one would expect that regional mobility imposes severe temporal and geographical restrictions on the formation and upholding of social relationships. Moreover, these restrictions can be assumed to differ by gender due to differential involvement of women and men in market and domestic care work, which also present different opportunities and constraints for maintaining and forming social contacts. Objective: Against this background we analyze the effects of internal migration and job-related commuting on couples' social relationships. Methods: The analysis is based on the British Household Panel Study (BHPS) waves 1997-2008. We first give extensive descriptive overview on the social structure of mobile couples and the amount and perceived quality of social contacts men and women maintain. Second the effects on quality (i.e., the satisfaction with one's social life) are analyzed within a panel fixed-effects framework. Results: Results indicate that regional mobility affects women more than men. In particular women who move for her partner's job prospects suffer losses in perceived quality of social life. Female commuters are dissatisfied if they have low qualification and are only weakly integrated in the labor market. Among male commuters time restrictions due to high workload are detrimental to their social life. Contribution: This contribution gives new insights on gender-specific dynamics of commuting and relocation and their gendered impact on social integration.

Background: This paper studies whether new family patterns fostered inequality of educational opportunities in upper-secondary education in Italy. Objective: To analyse the association between children's educational outcomes and a wide range of family arrangements, including the time of exposure to marriage (never married, married before or after the birth). Empirical analyses also consider whether these demographic characteristics of the origin family more strongly affect children from more or less well-off families, and whether these effects change when different educational outcomes are considered. Methods: Analyses are based on the Italian Labour Force Survey (2005-2014) and apply Linear Probability Models on a sample of 123,045 children aged 15 and 16. Results: Children living in single-parent households or with two cohabiting biological parents have worse educational outcomes compared to children of two married biological parents. Children of highly educated parents are more penalized if access to the most prestigious academic track is considered, whereas the penalty is stronger among children of low-educated parents if the risk of not being enrolled in upper-secondary schools that give access to university is analysed. Finally, the analysis of the exposure to marriage suggests that social selectivity may drive the negative effects of cohabitation. Contribution: Results provide limited support to the argument that new family patterns increase social inequalities. Living in 'nonstandard' family arrangements does worsen children's educational outcomes, but substantial heterogeneity in their effects has been found, depending on the combination between social background and the educational outcome considered.

Background: Many studies of Western societies have documented an increasing involvement of fathers with their children since the 1970s. The trend reflects changes in the meaning of fatherhood and contributes to child well-being and gender equality. New policies in the United Kingdom might have further encouraged father involvement in the new millennium. Differences in father involvement between socioeconomic groups have caused concern since they contribute to inequality in resources available to children. Objective: This paper examines the recent trends and social differences in father involvement with children in the United Kingdom. Methods: Data from the UK Time Use Surveys 2000-2001 and 2014-2015 are analysed using regression models. Results: Fathers' overall involvement in childcare in the new millennium has been stable but differences emerge when looking at specific childcare activities, in particular on weekend days. In 2014 fathers were less likely to provide interactive care and active fathers provided on average fewer minutes of physical care than in 2000. Fathers from higher SES groups offset some of these trends by increased participation rates in physical care in 2014 compared to 2000. Conclusions: The stability of fathers' involvement signifies a stalling of the transformation of the father role and progress towards gender equality in the home in large parts of the population. Father involvement on weekend days continues to diverge between high and low status groups. Contribution: This is the first comprehensive analysis of trends in father involvement in the new millennium using time-use data. It is the first analysis that finds no further increase of father involvement in the United Kingdom.

Tiene dos archivos adicionales disponibles en sitio de la revista Background: Mortality estimates from various sources suggest that Costa Ricans experience record-high life expectancy at birth in Latin America and higher longevity than the populations of many high-income countries, although there is some uncertainty as to the reliability of those estimates. Objective: We construct a life table series for Costa Rica to assess the quality of national demographic statistics for the period 1950–2013 and to determine whether reliable mortality estimates can be directly calculated from this data. Methods: We apply the methods from the Human Mortality Database (HMD) to national statistics to construct the Costa Rica life table series without adjusting for data quality. We also validate our results through internal consistency by evaluating the plausibility of the mortality patterns and its change over time and through external consistency by comparing our results with those from other sources. Results: Our mortality estimates for Costa Rica tend to be lower than others, especially for the period before 1970. They also produce a suspicious age pattern of mortality, with low adult and old-age mortality relative to the infant and child mortality, casting doubt on the quality of national demographic data. Conclusions: Other organizations have produced mortality estimates for Costa Rica that are higher than our unadjusted estimates, but it is difficult to evaluate the accuracy of the available estimates. Contribution: This analysis provides a more thorough evaluation of data quality issues regarding Costa Rica mortality than previously available. Unadjusted life tables by sex for 1950–2013 are included as supplemental material, together with the raw data upon which those life tables are based and with links to the detailed methods protocol implemented. National Institute on Aging/[R01-AG011552]//Estados Unidos National Institute on Aging/[R01-AG040245]//Estados Unidos National Institute on Aging/[P30-AG012839]//Estados Unidos UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Ciencias de la Salud::Instituto de Investigaciones en Salud (INISA)

Background: Research connecting partnership dissolution to housing dynamics usually concentrates on the adverse and gendered effects of separation on housing careers. Much less is known about whether housing circumstances are also influential antecedents of separation. Objective: This paper examines how three dimensions of housing circumstances are associated with separation: (1) legal arrangements of housing tenure and gendered housing contracts; (2) the lived environment (space) within dwellings; and (3) couples' ability to meet housing payments. Methods: This theoretical framework is tested using event history probit models of separation among a large sample of couples drawn from the United Kingdom Household Longitudinal Study (UKHLS). Results: The results show that all three dimensions of housing circumstances are associated with separation. Crucially, mortgage or rent arrears strongly increase the risk of partnership dissolution, especially among married couples who otherwise typically have a low propensity to separate. The risk of partnership dissolution is greater for renters than homeowners and greater female control over housing predicts separation, with partnership dissolution more likely when only the woman is written into the dwelling contract as compared to when both partners or only the man hold contractual rights. Contribution: These results suggest that growing difficulties obtaining secure and affordable housing could have negative consequences for partnership stability. We therefore call for researchers to engage more thoroughly with housing as a potential driver of demographic change.

За прошедшее десятилетие в России существенно увеличилось число медицинских организаций, выполняющих высокотехнологичные малоинвазивные операции при остром коронарном синдроме – чрескожные коронарные вмешательства (ЧКВ). В данной работе мы оцениваем степень влияния географических барьеров на доступность населения к этому наиболее эффективному способу лечения острого коронарного синдрома, в том числе инфаркта миокарда. Нами была собрана информация о медицинских организациях, выполнявших ЧКВ в 2010 и 2015 гг., а также данные о численности населения муниципальных районов и городских округов в России. Методами сетевого анализа было оценено время транспортировки и расстояние от физического центра каждого муниципального района/городского округа до ближайшего ЧКВ- центра в России. Расчеты были выполнены с использованием графа улично-дорожной сети В период с 2010 по 2015 г. число ЧКВ-центров в России увеличилось со 144 до 260. Медианное время доезда до ближайшего ЧКВ-центра составило 48 минут в 2015 г. (в 2010 г. ‒ 73 минуты). Две трети городского населения в 2015 г. могли быть доставлены в ближайший ЧКВ-центр за 60 минут и быстрее, а среди сельского населения такую возможность имела только одна пятая часть потенциальных пациентов. Создание 67 новых ЧКВ-центров в тех городских округах, где в настоящий момент имеется их дефицит, увеличит долю населения, находящегося в 60-минутной зоне доезда до ЧКВ- центра, до 62%, что эквивалентно 5,7 млн человек, для которых на данный момент невозможен своевременный доступ к данному виду вмешательства. В период между 2010 и 2015 г. происходило значительное, но неравномерные сокращение времени доезда до ЧКВ-центров. Несмотря на позитивные тенденции, Россия еще не приблизилась к уровню доступа, наблюдающегося в сопоставимых странах с большой территорией и неравномерно размещенным населением, таких как Австралия и Канада. Открытие относительно небольшого числа новых ЧКВ-центров (отделений) могло бы существенно улучшить доступ к медицинской помощи, тем самым сократив имеющееся неравенство.

Moscow is the region with the highest life expectancy in Russia. The country’s largest city, it has high incomes, a special population structure and a high concentration of all resources, including in the healthcare sector, which is given special attention by the city authorities. In some periods, the changes in life expectancy in Moscow have been unique compared to most other regions of Russia. The difference in life expectancy between Moscow and Russia in the period from the mid-1990s to the mid-2000s was mainly due to lower mortality in middle age. Since the mid-2000s, the main contribution to the difference in life expectancy has been shifting to old age mortality. Given the overall rapid decline of mortality in Moscow since then, changes in the mortality rates and life expectancy of certain age groups seem implausible. The quality of population and mortality data has a significant impact on the accuracy of estimates of mortality indicators and requires special attention in the case of Moscow. In particular, the number of people at advanced ages in Moscow is likely to be overestimated, which affects mortality rates in this age group. Peculiarities of mortality by causes of death in Moscow generally correspond to the average Russian trends; however, in Moscow a more rapid decrease in mortality from neoplasms is observed, as well as more realistic age-specific death rates in older age groups.

В 2016 г. в Москве, по данным полиции, в дорожно-транспортных происшествиях (далее ДТП) погиб 561 человек, тогда как согласно данным органов статистики (если опираться на подход Всемирной организации здравоохранения (далее ВОЗ) к агрегации кодов МКБ-10 для определения числа умерших в ДТП, используемый в базе данных «Здоровье для всех») – 790 человек. Для понимания тенденций дорожно-транспортной смертности и для разработки обоснованных и эффективных мер по ее предотвращению необходимы надежные данные, поэтому важно понять причины расхождения чисел погибших в ДТП в Москве по разным официальным источникам информации. Цель исследования – выявить причины, обусловливающие несовпадение чисел погибших по данным полиции и государственной статистики смертности, с помощью связывания записей о погибших в ДТП в Москве в 2016 г. на индивидуальном уровне. В исследовании использованы данные органов статистики о 1 891 016 умерших от всех причин смерти и данные полиции о 20 302 погибших в ДТП в России в 2016 г. Оба массива информации представляли собой индивидуальные неперсонифицированные записи о погибших. В результате их сопоставления было получено 944 записи с упоминанием Москвы хотя бы в одном из двух источников данных, из которых 699 записей можно рассматривать как связанные, 245 как несвязанные. В 6% связанных записей код причины смерти, не относится к той группе кодов, которые ВОЗ использует для определения числа умерших в ДТП в базе данных «Здоровье для всех», а в 35% связанных записей регион регистрации ДТП отличался от региона регистрации смерти. Из 561 записи полиции о погибших 84% было связано с данными государственной статистики смертности, а из 790 умерших по данным органов статистики 80% записей связано с данными полиции.

The acquisition of citizenship status in the new country of residence may depend on (1) the individual immigrant’s characteristics, (2) the structural characteristics of both the origin and the destination countries and (3) institutional factors in the destination country including policy factors, specifically the national citizenship policies. Although almost all European countries have shifted from a ‘nationalist’ to a more ‘multiculturalist’ citizenship policy, thus formally liberalising the access to citizenship rights, in Europe the opportunities for obtaining citizenship status in the new country of residence are still quite limited for many immigrants and their descendants. In addition, the conditions under which immigrants become naturalised citizens vary widely between countries. Indeed, there are many differences in policies on the right to citizenship in terms of the residence requirements for naturalisation, citizenship by birth, acceptance of dual citizenship and language requirements. The aim of this paper is to examine, through a logistic regression model with cluster-robust standard errors, the effect of both individual-level characteristics and measures of national citizenship policies on the likelihood of citizenship status amongst young and adult immigrants living in six European countries, i.e. Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Portugal and Spain, using data from the Immigrant Citizens Survey (ICS). The results show a considerable effect of individual characteristics on citizenship status. However, the effect of policy factors is also important. In particular, a lower residence requirement for naturalisation and a more inclusive environment favour immigrants becoming citizens of the new country of residence.

Считается, что центральная идея современной теории демографического перехода как перехода от равновесия высоких к равновесию низких смертности и рождаемости была сформирована и стала общепризнанной в середине ХХ века. В статье показано, что эта идея была высказана и развита Гербертом Спенсером на сто лет раньше, хотя современные теоретики демографического перехода никогда не ссылаются на него как на своего предшественника. Восстановление подлинной родословной теории демографического перехода – важная, но не единственная цель статьи. Ее главная задача привлечь аргументацию Спенсера к современным дебатам о настоящем и будущем низкой рождаемости, исходя из предпосылки, что эта аргументация не только не стала историческим раритетом, но и сегодня во многом опережает время. Главное внимание уделено различиям в понимании фундаментальных причин снижения рождаемости. В статье не отрицаются заблуждения Спенсера в понимании механизма снижения рождаемости в человеческом обществе, но что касается причин этого снижения, то, по мнению автора статьи, более высокий уровень обобщения, свойственный научному мировоззрению Спенсера, предопределил понимание этих причин, более глубокое, чем то, которое развивается современными демографами-теоретиками.

The article is a study of one of the most important problems of the demography and history of Russia in the 20th century. The author set himself the task of shedding light on the phenomenon, insufficiently studied in the demographic history of Russia, of the development of gender disbalance in the country's rural population during 1939-1945. The article emphasizes that, while our country entered World War II already with a disbalanced sex ratio, after 1941 gender asymmetry worsened to the extreme. The article also takes into account that the age components of the demographic catastrophe of the war period are closely correlated with changes in the gender structure of the population. All conclusions made in the article are based on a wide range of sources, some of which are introduced into scientific circulation for the first time, including data from the household records of sel’sovets for 1943 and 1945 and voter lists compiled for the elections of deputies to the Supreme Soviet of the USSR on February 10, 1946. The materials of the 1939 All-Union Population Census were also used as an important source of information. The article determines the ratio of gender-age groups in the rural population of the rear areas of Russia at the beginning (1939), middle (1943) and end (1945) of World War II. On this basis, the dynamics of changes in the gender and age structure of the rural population of Russia are revealed. As shown in the article, the main reason for the exacerbation of gender disbalance lies in the military mobilization of the male part of the population in the army and the death of men during the fighting.

Повышение ожидаемой продолжительности жизни до 80 лет к 2030 г. – одна из провозглашенных национальных целей развития страны. Для ее достижения важно понимать, какие факторы влияют на ожидаемую продолжительность жизни и могут быть, в свою очередь, объектами управляющего воздействия государства. В работе ставится цель выявить основные детерминанты продолжительности жизни населения в группах стран, различающихся уровнем продолжительности жизни, и показать место России в этом ряду. Для этого используются данные Всемирной организации здравоохранения и Всемирного банка по 82 странам мира, проводится дескриптивный, кластерный и корреляционный анализ. Проведенный анализ демонстрирует, что продолжительность жизни в России намного ниже, чем в странах с сопоставимым уровнем экономического развития и расходов на здравоохранение. Показано, что в зависимости от принадлежности стран к разным кластерам по уровню продолжительности жизни на здоровье населения влияют различные факторы и в неодинаковой мере: развитие экономики, в том числе здравоохранения, урбанизация, питание, нездоровый образ жизни. В заключение приводятся рекомендации для государственной политики.

Книга большого коллектива авторов под редакцией Б.А. Ревича и О.В. Кузнецовой позволяет по-новому посмотреть на крупнейшие города мира и России, рассмотрев их в едином контексте современных проблем. Авторы аргументируют необходимость выделения «признаков мегаполисности» и применение их к российским городам-миллионникам, которые в условиях сложившейся системы городского расселения имеют явное превосходство над другими городами своего региона по численности населения, многофункциональности и многопрофильности деятельности, играют особую роль в культурном и образовательном пространстве. В книге рассмотрен широкий спектр проблем: демографические проблемы, трансформация рынков труда, отраслевой и территориальной структуры, проблем расселения мигрантов и стратегий их адаптации, качества жизни населения, изменения здоровья населения и формирования микроклиматических особенностей урбанизированных территорий. Исследование полимасштабно, в крупном масштабе рассмотрены крупнейшие мировые города, особое место в исследовании уделено Москве.

Place remains a critical concept within globalization processes, often communicated via packaging, design, and branding. This article uses grounded theory methodology to develop a theory of Place-Based Discourses (PBDs) based on a dataset of beer labels collected, coded, memoed and analyzed between 2011–2019. I argue that the beer label incorporates all three elements and presents a primary site for studying value addition, providing a ready space for producers to introduce national motifs, such as flags and tartans in the case of Scotch Ales, or depictions of local working landscapes to connote ecological, social, and economic connections to place. Drawing on extant literature on conceptualizations of place within the Global Production Networks perspective (GPNs), this paper contributes to debates about food and drink branding and globalization by generating new ways of examining the sites and processes of representation of place within cultural-material hybrids (such as beer labels) imbricated through globalization mechanisms. I interpret three constituent themes which emerged during the theorization of PBDs – historical imagination and local identity, thin place and thick networks, and performative globalizations – and I argue that this approach provides an important contribution to the geographies of globalization, linking cultural analysis of branding and place to the GPN tradition. Future studies can apply this knowledge to move towards an understanding of other place-based sites and processes within GPNs, with specific research attention directed towards how PBDs can “reveal and rebalance” power structures vis-à-vis the place dimensions of globalization.

The book introduces readers to the contemporary Western approaches, themes and language of family studies. The material of the book is organized on the principle of an encyclopedia. The book discusses a number of the most relevant concepts for understanding family issues: grandmothers/grandfathers, power, childhood, home, domestic violence, caregiving, individualization, motherhood, fatherhood, affection, public/private, rationality, parenthood, transnational families, etc. The initial theoretical premises of the book are the theories of individualization and reflexivity, intersectionality and interdisciplinarity. Sharing these theoretical positions, the authors of the book problematize the very concept of family. They point out the diversity of various forms of family life, moving away from the normative view of the family and showing the variability of this phenomenon in different historical, cultural, class, ethnic and racial contexts, as well as at different stages of the life cycle of a person or family.

Теория эпидемиологического перехода основана на систематическом применении эпидемиологического подхода к анализу изменений во времени и пространстве состояния здоровья, уровня смертности, дожития и рождаемости в их связи с социально-экономическими и экологическими факторами, образом жизни, демографическими, медицинскими и технологическими детерминантами и/или коррелятами при различных социальных условиях. Нет сомнения, что на протяжении нескольких последних столетий в мире происходили глубокие эпидемиологические изменения, хотя у разных групп населения они начинаются в разное время и идут с неодинаковой скоростью. Цель этого очерка – по-новому взглянуть на первоначальное представление теории эпидемиологического перехода 1971 г. и перейти от трехстадийного / трехмодельного описания перехода к пятистадийному / пятимодельному. В частности, в Положении 1 рассматривается относительный вклад смертности и рождаемости в динамику перехода, а в Положении 2 описываются этапы эпидемиологического перехода. Кроме того, в процессе перехода обнаруживаются разные виды неравенства, на которые указывается в Положении 3. Модели перехода, характерные для динамики, сроков перехода и последующих изменений в разных странах обсуждаются в Положении 4. В заключительной части статьи рассматриваются возможные сценарии изменения здоровья на пятой стадии перехода и за ее пределами.

Background: Demographers are increasingly interested in connecting demographic behaviour and trends with 'soft' measures, i.e., complementary information on attitudes, values, feelings, and intentions. Objective: The aim of this paper is to demonstrate how computational linguistic techniques can be used to explore opinions and semantic orientations related to parenthood. Methods: In this article we scrutinize about three million filtered Italian tweets from 2014. First, we implement a methodological framework relying on Natural Language Processing techniques for text analysis, which is used to extract sentiments. We then run a supervised machine-learning experiment on the overall dataset, based on the annotated set of tweets from the previous stage. Consequently, we infer to what extent social media users report negative or positive affect on topics relevant to the fertility domain. Results: Parents express a generally positive attitude towards being and becoming parents, but they are also fearful, surprised, and sad. They also have quite negative sentiments about their children's future, politics, fertility, and parental behaviour. By exploiting geographical information from tweets we find a significant correlation between the prevalence of positive sentiments about parenthood and macro-regional indicators of both life satisfaction and fertility level. Contribution: We show how tweets can be used to represent soft measures such as attitudes, values, and feelings, and we establish how they relate to demographic features. Linguistic analysis of social media data provides a middle ground between qualitative studies and more standard quantitative approaches.

Background: Conducting demographic research on armed conflicts is challenging because conflicts can affect the quality of primary data collection or halt the production of evidence altogether. Most of the existing methods for collecting time-variant demographic data cannot be used with war-affected populations Objective: This paper introduces the Extended Genealogy Method (EGM), a toolkit for collecting high-quality data for demographic analysis using cross-checked extended genealogies. The paper assesses the quality of the data produced by the EGM by focusing on an empirical application of the method. Methods: The EGM uses chain-referral sampling to create extended kinship networks that include all members of a local population. The multiple reporting that results from the sampling strategy is used to reduce the error associated with retrospective reporting. Results: Data on 3,566 unique individuals and 1,986 marriages were collected from 100 EGM interviews. The paper shows how the EGM-generated data was used to reconstruct the excess mortality from the 1982 Río Negro Massacres in Guatemala, a wartime event that produced very high excess mortality in the population. Conclusions: The EGM produced reliable and complete demographic data. The sampling and data processing strategies addressed retrospective and selection bias and helped evaluate data completion. The EGM can be used to reconstruct the demographic history of other local populations. Contribution: The method can be applied to reconstruct demographic dynamics in contexts of data scarcity, such as during and after armed conflicts. The EGM produces time-variant social network data useful to study, for example, intergenerational support or the transmission of demographic traits and behaviours over time.

Objective: The aim of this paper is to study the selection effects of mortality among soldiers in WWI. Methods: Individual-level data of more than 62,000 soldiers born between 1874 and 1899 in north-eastern Italy was used. Almost 10Š of these soldiers died in the war. A data set was constructed by linking two different sources, the call-up registers and the Roll of Honour of the fallen Italian soldiers of WWI. Results: The risk of death of soldiers in war depended partly on the soldier's assignment to corps and partly on personal behaviour and individual characteristics. A relatively small number of soldiers of large body size fell in battle. The most universal cause of death was illness. Literate soldiers were less likely to die in captivity. Contribution: The concept of mortality differential has rarely been applied to soldiers engaged in conflict. This is because they were supposed to experience similar perils and run similar risks during the war. However, our study found evidence of strong mortality differentials among soldiers, which were strictly associated with the striking differences in terms of literacy, education, and socio-economic status that permeated the Italian society of that time and that the universal enrolment allowed to highlight.

OBJECTIVEThis study focuses on couples in Italy who experienced union dissolution between 2005 and 2014 and investigates the existence of gendered routes out of the family home upon separation.METHODSThe empirical analyses rely on microdata from the EU Statistics on Income and Living Conditions. Using logistic regression, I estimate whether the likelihood that women move out of the family home upon separation is associated with contextual characteristics, the gender balance within couples, and the presence of children.RESULTSWomen are more likely than men to stay in the family home following separation. They are, however, more likely than men to leave the family home if the male partner owns or rents the accommodation, if he is older than them, and if the couple had no common children. Contextual influences also seem to shape the routes out of the family home, as women separating after 2010 and living in less densely populated areas are more likely than other women to leave the family home. Interestingly, some of these influenceshave different intensity and significance depending on the presence of children.CONTRIBUTIONThis is the first study of residential mobility following separation in Italy. Theconsequences of separation are often gendered; knowing whether gender also defines the housing consequences of separation, and which other dimensions of inequality are associated with moving out of the family home, is crucial to inform policies aimed at mitigating the housing disadvantages experienced by individuals who undergo aseparation.

Background: The current demographic changes with a shift toward older ages contribute to more cancer cases in the next decades in Western countries. Thus, forecasting the demand for expected healthcare services and expenditures is relevant for planning purposes and resource allocation. Objective: In this study, we provide a new method to estimate future numbers of cancer cases (newly diagnosed cancers and cancer deaths) using Austrian data. Methods: We used 1983-2009 data to estimate cancer burden trends using quasi-Poisson regression models, which we then applied to official population projections up to 2030. Specific regression models were estimated for cancer incidence and mortality, disaggregated by sex and 16 tumor sites. Results: The absolute number of cancer cases increased continuously during the last decades in Austria. The trend will also continue in the near future, as the number of newly diagnosed cancers and cancer deaths will increase by +14Š and +16Š between 2009 and 2030. Age-standardized individual risk of being newly diagnosed with or die from cancer will be substantially lower in 2030 compared to 2009 (-14Š and -16Š, respectively). Contribution: Our novel method combining population projections with quasi-likelihood models found a falling individual risk for cancer burden in the Austrian population. However, the absolute number of new cancer cases and deaths will increase due to the aging of the population. These estimates should be considered when planning future healthcare demands.

Background: Over 28Š of the Australian population is born overseas. Understanding where immigrants have settled, and the relative attractiveness of these places in relation to others, is important for understanding the contributions of immigration to society and subnational population growth. However, subsequent demographic analyses of immigration to Australia is complicated because (1) the population is highly urbanised with over 80Š living along the coast on an area roughly 3Š of the country's land mass and (2) the diversity of immigration streams results in many immigrant populations with small population numbers. Objective: The objective of this research is to develop methods for overcoming irregularities in sparse data on age-specific mortality and internal migration to estimate small area multiregional life tables. These life tables are useful for studying the duration of time spent, expressed in years lived, by populations living in specific geographic areas. Methods: Multiregional life tables are calculated for different immigrant groups from 1981 to 2011 in Australia. To overcome sparse data, indirect estimation techniques are used to smooth, impose and infer age-specific probabilities of mortality and internal migration. Results: We find that the country or region of birthplace is an important factor in determining both settlement and subsequent internal migration. Conclusions: Overcoming sparse data on mortality and internal migration allow for the study of the relative attractiveness of places over time for different immigrant populations in Australia. This information provides useful evidence for assessing the effectiveness of policies designed to encourage regional and rural settlement. Contribution: This information provides useful evidence for assessing the effectiveness of policies designed to encourage regional and rural settlement.

Background: The lands of the Recovered Territories were acquired by Poland in 1945 and populated by almost 5 million Polish settlers mostly from central provinces in the country and from ex-Polish territories in the east. Transgenerational persistence of informal institutions provides a context for the study. Objective: Persistence of the spatial variation of age-adjusted lung cancer mortality and their causes were evaluated. The high smoking prevalence in the Recovered Territories was hypothesised to be related to the age of the local communities and persistence of informal institutions. Methods: A spatial scan statistic was used to detect clusters of elevated lung cancer mortality. A two stages least squares regression model with heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation consistent standard errors was fitted to identify determinants of a spatial clustering of lung cancer mortality. Results: A strong west-to-east trend of lung cancer mortality is consistent with spatial patterns of tobacco use in interwar, post-war, and current Poland. Age-adjusted lung cancer mortality was contrastingly high in 1980-1984 in Masuria, West Pomerania, and Silesia. Tobacco prevalence and unbalanced dietary patterns were found to be associated with a spatial clustering of lung cancer mortality in the country. Conclusions: Migrant communities of the Recovered Territories were more likely to take up and continue smoking. This effect was enhanced by the young age of communities and population, as well as by high urbanisation and availability of employment outside agriculture in the Recovered Territories. The identified spatial pattern is consistent with elevated frequency of other socially condemned behaviours in the Recovered Territories, including crime, nonmarital births, and divorce. Contribution: Phantom borders reflecting different historical legacies can structure health-related behaviours. Spatial distribution of lung cancer mortality is persistent over time, particularly in women.

Background: Sierra Leone in sub-Saharan Africa had one of the highest under-five mortality rates in the world in 2016: 114 deaths per 1000 live births. Previous studies have mainly focused on examining individual risk factors of child mortality in the country, without examining micro and macro levels of risk factors simultaneously. Objective: This study examines the effect of household and community context on the risk of dying for children under five in Sierra Leone. Methods: We use data from the 2013 Sierra Leone Demographic and Health Survey (SL DHS) to estimate the probability of dying, and examine mortality determinants using discrete-time event history analysis in a multilevel framework. Results: We find that individual child characteristics and mother- and community-level factors simultaneously affect the risk of child mortality. The substantial clustering of communities with high risk of mortality identified in the Eastern region indicates that children residing in the region have a higher risk of mortality than those in other regions. Further, the results suggest the need for targeted area interventions. Conclusions: We provide evidence suggesting that policymakers should focus on assisting mothers through family planning programmes to promote longer birth intervals, increased coverage of health services for mothers and children, and targeted interventions to reduce child mortality in the most affected regions of Sierra Leone. Contribution: We contribute recent evidence of determinants of child mortality in Sierra Leone from SL DHS 2013, including mother and community factors in a multilevel framework.

Background: Comparative literature investigating race/ethnic patterning of children's health has found racial/ethnic minority status to be linked to health disadvantages. Less is known about differences during early adolescence, a period during which health outcomes are linked to later life health. Objective: Using the UK Millennium Cohort Study (n = 10,188) and the US Early Childhood Longitudinal Survey-Kindergarten Cohort (n ~ 6,950), we examine differences in socioemotional and cognitive development among 11-year-old adolescents and the contribution of family resources in explaining any observed differences, including socioeconomic, cultural traditions, and psychosocial resources. Results: Adverse socioemotional health and cognitive development were associated with race/ethnic minority status in both countries. In the United States, we found that cultural resources and family socioeconomic capital played a large role in attenuating differences in problem behaviors between Asian American, Black, and Latino adolescents and their White peers. In the United Kingdom, the explanatory factors explaining differences in problem behaviors varied by racial/ethnic group. In both contexts, family resources cannot explain the sizable cross-country differences in verbal skills. In the United Kingdom, Indian adolescents had nearly one-third of a standard deviation increase in their verbal scores whereas in the United States, Black and Latino adolescents had scores nearly two-fifths and one-fifth of a standard deviation below the mean, respectively. Contribution: We use a detailed race/ethnic classification in the investigation of racial/ethnic inequalities across the United States and United Kingdom. There are strong family resource effects, suggesting that relative family advantages and disadvantages do have meaningful associations with adolescent socioemotional and cognitive development. Although levels of resources do explain some cross-national differences, there appears to be a broader range of family background variables in the United Kingdom that influence adolescent development. Our findings point to the critical role of both the extent and nature of family social capital in affecting adolescent development.

Background: A number of recent theories in demography suggest a U-shaped relationship between gender equality and fertility. Fertility is theorized to be high in societies with low levels of gender equality, as well as in societies with high gender equality, with lower fertility in a transition phase. Objective: This study estimates the relationship between gender equality (as operationalized through female political empowerment) and fertility within societies over time, using yearly information on gender equality and fertility for 35 countries. Results: When examining societies across time there is no evidence of a U-shaped relationship between gender equality and fertility. In cross-sectional analyses across countries for recent periods, such a U-shaped relationship can be observed. For within-society analyses a negative relationship is clear at lower levels of gender equality, while no pattern can be observed in societies with high gender equality. Contribution: Theories that fertility would increase following increasing gender equality are not supported for changes over time within countries. Implications and robustness of the findings are discussed.

The problem of excess mortality in Russia has not lost its relevance. The situation is complicated by the high level of spatial inequality in health, which is usually measured at the regional level in our country. This work is one of the first attempts to look at the dynamics and extent of spatial inequality in health in Russia at the sub-regional level, by contrasting the "center/core" (in our case, represented by the largest Russian cities) with the "periphery" (the rest of the country). Cities with a population of over a million people were chosen based on the spatial hierarchy that exists in Russia, according to which the highest level of social and economic development is concentrated in the largest cities. As a rule, a higher level of development of human capital corresponds to lower mortality. Using data provided by Rosstat we calculated life expectancy at birth for Russian cities with a population of over a million people in 1989-2016. The results fully coincided with our expectations: the polarization in the health level between the largest Russian cities and the rest of the country has significantly increased in the last twenty-five years, which is a reflection of those centripetal processes that have been taking place in our country during this period. Russian cities with a population of over a million people are attractive destinations for both internal and external migrants, and thus acquire among other things a much more educated population. Since people with higher education take better care of their health, having a more educated population is undoubtedly an essential advantage of bigger cities over the periphery when it comes to the overall health level. Without solving the structural problems that restrain social and economic development outside the largest agglomerations, convergence in mortality rates between cities with a population of over a million people and the surrounding territories is hardly possible.

The beginning of the 21st century in the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina (henceforth referred to as ?the Federation?) has been characterised by a decrease in the primary-school-age population. As such, the main objective of this work is to define and explain the factors that have influenced the decrease in the primary-school-age population in this part of Bosnia and Herzegovina. The research methodology applied in this work is oriented towards defining the degree of influence of demographic factors on the development of the primary-school-age population in the Federation. By using statistical methods and GIS analysis of statistical data, negative demographic trends were confirmed in the Federation at the end of the 20th and the beginning of the 21st century. These trends included intensive migration, a decrease in the total number of inhabitants, a decrease in the birth rate, an increased mortality rate, a decreased rate of natural population change, and the ageing of the population. Due to adverse economic, social, political, and other circumstances after 1995, population emigration has been intensified, most noticeably within the population aged between 20 and 40. The most important result of the research is the fact that the decrease in the natural population dynamics and intensive emigration are the most significant factors influencing the decrease in the primary-school-age population in the Federation. Such negative demographic trends influence the primary education system adversely. In the future, it will be necessary to plan and implement a population-revitalisation process as part of the federation?s overall population policy.

This study analyses paternal involvement in the daily basic childcare of Italian cohabiting and married fathers with children aged 0–3. The aims are (a) to verify whether cohabiting fathers are more or less involved in childcare than married ones are and (b) to examine the mechanisms behind the possible differences. The focus is on both the daily basic childcare as a whole and on the specific activities of daily basic care (such as putting the child to sleep, dressing the child and changing its nappies). In addition, also potential differences among married fathers are examined, distinguishing between those who marry directly and those with pre-marital cohabitation. Results show that a higher involvement in the daily basic childcare of cohabiting fathers and of married fathers with pre-marital cohabitation may be completely explained by the fact that these typologies of couples are selected by structural differences which are positively associated with the higher fathers’ basic childcare.

The aim of the article is to assess the challenges facing Western Balkan welfare states and the available strategic options for enhancing social protection and human development in the region. The analyses of challenges encompassed the relevant EU and national statistics. For each challenge, channels were analysed, through which the impact on the welfare state was reflected. Both challenges and options were assessed against the experience of more advanced societies, especially EU countries. The analysis has shown that most of the challenges identified in advanced societies are also present in Western Balkan countries. These challenges are intensified by these countries’ relatively low gross domestic product, unfavourable social situations, inadequate education, and poor health outcomes, including a number of microefficiency issues in the context of low investment in the social sector. High emigration, long-term unemployment, and the widespread grey economy are identified as particularly important challenges. Among the strategic options, the small welfare state, universal social investment, and preventive welfare state were analysed. The conclusions emphasise the importance of efficiency as a complementary strategic option, as well as the need to prioritise and focus given the weak and limited administrative, institutional, and expert capacities in the region.

In stark contrast to certain EU member countries, Serbia faces a high youth unemployment rate of over 30% (34.9% in 2016, 32.8% in 2017 and 31% in 2018). This paper provides a logistic regression analysis of what characteristics among youth (15-30 years of age) contribute to the likelihood of their employment in Serbia. While youth is internationally defined as being between the ages of 15-24, this paper broadens it to 15-30, as it is defined in Serbia (RS) for the purposes of youth employment/unemployment and for the country’s “National Youth Strategy from 2015 to 2025.” The study was conducted using micro data from the Labour Force Survey provided on request from the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia. The indicators that affect whether a young person will be employed or not are: the financial background of the participant’s household, earnings, age, gender, and total years of work experience. Theoretically, although it may be anticipated that unemployed individuals who have greater work experience find it easier to find a job, employment does seem to automatically generate longer working hours. The results of the research are both practical and scientific, as they may not only assist policy-makers in the process of writing strategies on youth employment, but also bear groundwork for further study. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 179001, Grant no. 179081, Grant no. 47009, and Grant no. 79015]

The ageing of the population is a contemporary phenomenon, but its foundations were laid decades ago. Changing age structures and the consequent demographic ageing has only recently become the subject of theoretical (re)consideration, since the theory of demographic transition only values fertility and mortality trajectories. The emergence of “new” demography takes into account the momentum created by the previous trends in population dynamics and explains the future rejuvenation or ageing of the population. The importance of inherited age structure can be illustrated using an approach that represents distorted cohort flows, showing that baby booms and baby busts can play a crucial role in the future ageing of the population. While in the past it was fertility that predominantly affected age structure, recent research has revealed that changes in life expectancy are becoming a more prominent factor in shaping expected population ageing trends. The general theory of population ageing would have to consider the possible compression of morbidity, dynamic equilibrium, or the expansion of morbidity, since the future course of (healthy) life expectancy is determining the scope of the old and fragile population. The status of theory in demography has long been problematic, since the “grandiose” theory of demographic transition had to be reevaluated. Modern approaches apply more flexible theoretical frameworks to explain contemporary demographic changes and provide a conceptual background. As such, the important paradigm for the demography of ageing should be the prospective paradigm, which uses information about the longevity of the population and transposes it to population ageing research. The theory of population metabolism seems to adequately define why population ageing is important for cohorts and generation change, especially in cases where distorted cohort flows create prominent cohort oscillation. The need to create adequate policies for changing age composition morphology is highlighted in the domain of institutional adaptation, where the concept of population balance can provide the appropriate framework. Also, as life events tend to take place more often at certain points in the life cycle - for example during adulthood and entering old age - the idea of population densities should be further explored. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. 47007: Geografija Srbije]

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk meningkatkan peserta KB aktif untuk mencapai target Renstra BKKBN 2015-2019 di Kabupaten Musi Rawas, Provinsi Sumatera Selatan. Penelitian ini menggunakan metode mixed methods . Temuan penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa penyebab rendahnya peserta KB aktif adalah pemahaman bahwa banyak anak banyak rezeki, kekhawatiran merasa kesepian jika memiliki sedikit anak, masih berkeinginan mendapatkan anak dengan jenis kelamin yang berbeda, status pekerjaan suami, tidak memahami pentingnya KB, tidak ada alat/cara KB yang sesuai dengan keinginan , dan tidak ada kegiatan/program KB. Upaya peningkatan jumlah peserta KB aktif dapat dilakukan dengan cara memberikan bantuan dana, pelatihan, manajemen sosialisasi , dan pelatihan alat KB pada PUS, kerja sama dengan pemangku kepentingan, pendekatan tokoh masyarakat, bantuan alat dan pemasangan kontrasepsi secara gratis, pemberian apreasiasi kepada pengguna KB, melakukan monitoring dan evaluasi serta umpan balik, tinjauan kembali dari hasil monitoring dan evaluasi agar dapat diperbaiki pada program KB berikutnya demi tercapainya target Renstra BKKBN 2015-2019.

In this paper, we present a longitudinal research study examining ethnic distance in Montenegro. The research is based on measuring ethnic distance at two points in time: in 2013 and 2018. This research was carried out using the nine-level Bogardus social distance scale. There are some important notions considering the significance of measuring ethnic distance in Montenegro. First, this is a multi-ethnic country where Montenegrins, as the main ethnic group, have a relatively small majority. Second, this was the last country to leave former Yugoslavia, gaining independence in 2006. Third, the main political and social cleavage in this society is based on ethnicity. Fourth, there has been no change in the ruling elite of Montenegro since the beginning of the transition from socialism to liberal democracy. The main hypothetical argument regarding the expected changes in inter-ethnic distancing is, therefore, political. During the process of gaining independence, there was an informal alliance among Montenegrins and non-Serbian minorities, since Serbs as an ethnic group wanted Montenegro to remain in a com-mon state with Serbia. This caused clear and pronounced political division in Montenegrin society. Of course, this kind of social cleavage has historical precedents in the Balkans. Prior to the independence issue, which was raised in the late 1990s, Montenegrins and Serbs, as the combined ethnic majority, were in favour of Serbia and Montenegro remaining united. However, after gaining independence, Serbs, who had been a majority in their own country, suddenly become a minority in Montenegro. Since almost any politics in the Balkans is ethno-politics, we examined inter-ethnic distance across two reference periods in order to identify the trends in inter-ethnic distancing. The results showed that the overall inter-ethnic distance in Montenegro increased during that five-year period. We argue that the temporary alliance between Montenegrins and non-Serbian minorities resulted in good inter-ethnic relations among these groups, while they were striving to achieve a common political goal. However, after independence was achieved, it was to be expected that inter-ethnic relations would deteriorate. We provide evidence to support this thesis. The results of our research show that overall inter-ethnic distance increased in the five-year period surveyed. In particular, we saw a dramatic increase in the ethnic distancing of Albanians away from all other groups. In addition, ethnic Bosnians are distancing themselves from Montenegrins and Serbs more so than they were in 2013. On the other hand, we found that there was no change in ethnic distancing be-tween Montenegrins and Serbs. Additionally, item analysis showed that the distance between Montenegrins and Serbs is very small, and is not in fact an issue of ethnicity, but rather one of politics. This was evidenced by the fact that the only sensitive issue between Serbs and Montenegrins was for a member of the other ethnicity “to have a leadership position in my country”. In all other regards, we measured a low inter-ethnic distance be-tween Serbs and Montenegrins. We conclude that increase in ethnic distance is caused by political variables and overall regional context. As Montenegro is a multi-ethnic country, the deterioration of ethnic relations could seriously jeopardize the country’s overall political stability.

Настоящий обзор посвящен использованию Базы данных ООН о политике в области населения для исследований политики, касающейся внутренних миграций. Такие миграции более масштабны и, возможно, даже более значимы для экономического, политического, социального и культурного развития общества, чем внешние. Несмотря на то, что многие государства в той или иной степени реализуют (или реализовали в прошлом) меры политики, относящейся к внутренним миграциям, она не всегда выделяется в качестве самостоятельной, а является составной частью других видов политики. В целях обобщения опыта разных стран, проведения международных сопоставлений, определения региональных и глобальных тенденций в реализации политики в сфере внутренней миграции можно использовать Базу данных о политике в области населения. База данных содержит регулярно актуализируемую информацию о ситуации и тенденциях реализации политики в области населения для всех государств-членов ООН и некоторых других территорий. Основным источником информации служат официальные ответы правительств стран и территорий на регулярно рассылаемые опросники Отдела народонаселения ООН. База данных предоставляет доступ к информации о политике в области народонаселения, отдельным демографическим и социально-экономическим индикаторам с 1976 по 2015 г. Веб-интерфейс позволяет составлять картосхемы и графики, скачивать массивы данных о проводимой политике в табличном формате, а также содержит разделы с последними публикациями, в которых используется база данных и полезные ссылки (включая ссылки на другие базы данных по народонаселению). Вместе с тем следует отметить недостаточное раскрытие потенциала базы данных по политике в области населения в отечественных исследованиях внутренней миграции.

This article identifies links between the active aging process and the “silver economy” at the European Union level. It also defines economic and societal prerequisites for “silver entrepreneurship”, which Serbia, as a small, transition, factor-driven economy can exploit. Previous research has shown there are two ways in which older people can be involved in the silver economy: as producers (“silver entrepreneurs”), or as consumers. Demand for data about silver entrepreneurship has been driven by macroeconomists, notably those devoted to issues around fiscal instability, rather than by the urgent need to consider this phenomenon as one driven by growth and competitiveness. Existing research has identified two forms of silver entrepreneurship: opportunity-based and necessity-based. Opportunity-based silver entrepreneurship is inherent in economies with high GDP per capita. Across the EU-28 nations, the average GDP per capita in purchasing power standard (PPS) in 2017 was recorded as 29,299 EUR. This figure was used as a proxy measurement of living standards. However, in the smaller transition economies of Southeast Europe, this figure is a lot lower. In 2017, the average GDP per capita in PPS in Serbia was 4,800 EUR. In order to identify the economic factors necessary for silver entrepreneurship at both the company and individual levels in Serbia, we derived data from a range of sources. These included the Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia, the Labour Force Survey 2017, the Pension and Disability Insurance Fund, and the Minis-try of Trade, Tourism and Telecommunications. Data relating to the Uncertainty Avoidance Index for Serbia (UAI) were derived from research organized by the Regional Cooperation Council and GfK. The author then calculated the UAI for Serbia. The collected data showed how the UAI for Serbia has changed over time, declining from a value of 92 in 1993 to 60 in 2016. Statistics about pensions in Serbia show that only military retirees, who have an average monthly pension of 46,494 RSD, can cover the minimum consumer basket costs of 36,090 RSD.

Educated and talented people drive progress in every country. That’s why no country can neglect these people; that would mean losing one’s own potential. This paper emphasises the importance of educating scholarship students abroad as a means of developing and accumulating human resources and a key determinant of sustainable development in the modern world. Investing in the education of the best students (scholarship holders) is an investment in the future, which brings multiple benefits on a social, economic, and political level. Migration is an important phenomenon that attracts public attention, especially when it comes to highly educated experts leaving their home country in search of better education. Highly educated experts have been leaving Serbia for several decades, which poses an obvious problem for local society. The topic of permanent migration is dominant both in foreign and domestic literature, but studies on the temporary migration of highly educated students (scholarship holders) is almost nonexistent. The aim of this paper is to point out the value of returnee scholarship holders and the importance of creating the appropriate conditions for them to stay in the country. A survey conducted on a group of 96 returnee scholarship holders identified factors that affect their satisfaction with living in Serbia. The survey involved experts from Serbia who were educated abroad as scholarship holders, where they acquired academic titles and are now employed: as faculty teachers (32); as researchers at scientific institutes (24); in the private sector (21); at universities (12); in state administrative departments (5); and in medical institutions (2). The criterion for selecting this group of respondents was that they had stayed abroad as scholarship holders, whether they used scholarships from domestic (24) or foreign (72) funds. Scholarship students go abroad mostly because of their personal aspirations for training, gaining new experiences, and because of the inability to study the desired discipline in their country, as was the case for 74 respondents. The main reasons for deciding to return are family (25) and the belief that they have a good chance to work in Serbia (18), while 16 respondents could not stay abroad. In this paper, we used the factor analysis method. The main factors that create satisfaction with life in Serbia are isolated. These factors are: satisfaction with work and a set of factors that strongly correlate with it (the ability to make decisions, the implementation of acquired knowledge, peer acceptance), as well as the recognition of their diploma in Serbia without any difficulties. By improving these factors, there might be a significant increase in the chance that returnee scholarship holders remain in Serbia for a long time. Based on this, it would be wise to build a strategy on how to encourage returnee scholarship holders to stay in the country. The results obtained in this study represent a contribution to a search for a strategy that will attract, involve, and retain educated people in the country. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. TR 35030]

During the 17th century, the Slovak population began migrating from its motherland to the south and to the southeast of the Pannonian Plain. They settled in Vojvodina, and the settlements in which the Slovaks are still the most numerous are Kovačica and Bački Petrovac. The share of the Slovak ethnic group in Vojvodina grew until the mid-20th century, after which a noticeable decline was observed, especially in the last two censuses. The low fertility and migration of the young population reflected the change in the age structure, which in the long run is a key challenge for the sustainability of this ethnic group in Vojvodina, on which fact the goal and task of this paper are based. The focus of the paper is the ageing of the Slovak population, analyzed on the basis of age-sex structure, average age, ageing index, age ratio, age dependency ratio and age structure typology. The comparative analysis covered the period since the census in 1971 and it was established that the population of Bački Petrovac and Kovačica was shifting from the stage of the threshold of demographic ageing towards deep and deepest demographic ageing. These two settlements represent the anchors of the Slovaks in Vojvodina and the settlements of their largest concentration, so it is expected that the trends in other settlements, with a smaller share of the Slovak population, will only be even more unfavorable. The results are complemented by the demographic projections of this ethnic group at the level of Vojvodina, obtained in the DemProj Spectrum v5.47 software. According to the current trends and projections, the Slovak ethnic group has some of the most unfavorable age indicators, which could lead to a decline in the total number of this population by more than 30% by the middle of the 21st century, thus endangering its sustainability in this region.

The aim of the article is to present the professional and spatial craftsmanship structure within the Poznań Department, based on the results of a census conducted during the period of the Duchy of Warsaw. The analyses presented, which include quantitative ones using statistical methods, are therefore related to the pre-enfranchisement period, following which the Poznań Department definitively embarked on a “Prussian path of capitalistic development”. Therefore, the results may serve as a starting point for evaluating the economic changes that took place in the research area in the 19th century. Having used multidimensional methods, I shall be proposing regionalization of the Poznań Department, due to the structure of crafts in the early years of the 19th century. Census data also allow for the identification of key crafts in the Poznań Department at the threshold of industrialization, as well as groups of interrelated branches. The research will also, indirectly, indicate the importance of historical awareness in the selection of grouping methods at subsequent stages of research that is based on historical quantitative data.

Растущий во всем мире избыточный вес населения - одна из важнейших угроз общественному здоровью. В последние десятилетия этот феномен активно исследуется представителями разных наук. В России социально-экономические факторы и последствия избыточного веса пока мало изучены. В статье представлен обзор литературы, посвященной причинам избыточного веса и издержкам, которые несут отдельные индивиды, работодатели, государство. На базе микроданных Российского мониторинга экономического положения и здоровья населения за 2012-2016 гг. проводится эмпирический анализ динамики распространения ожирения и предожирения в стране, изучается связь избыточного веса с демографическими и социально-экономическими факторами, с положением работника на рынке труда, расходами на лечение. Результаты анализа подтверждают связь склонности к избыточному весу с возрастом и гендерной принадлежностью человека, с факторами здорового образа жизни. Высшее и среднее специальное образование коррелирует с низким весом только среди женщин. Для мужчин, напротив, более высокий уровень образования ассоциируется с высокими показателями предожирения и ожирения. Связи избыточного веса и субъективного благосостояния не выявлено. Оценки связи избыточного веса и положения работников на рынке труда, проведенные регрессионными методами, показали, что индекс массы тела (ИМТ) значимо коррелирует как с вероятностью занятости, так и с заработной платой (для мужчин). Однако в обоих случаях эта связь оказывается положительной для низких и средних значений ИМТ, и лишь в случаях тяжелого ожирения наблюдается отрицательная зависимость. Увеличение веса ассоциируется с ростом числа хронических заболеваний, ухудшением самооценки здоровья, растущей вероятностью инвалидности. Полные люди в среднем чаще попадают в больницу, покупают лекарства и тратят на них больше денег по сравнению с людьми с нормальным весом. Однако эконометрический анализ подтвердил положительную связь веса и медицинских расходов только для женщин и для людей, страдающих предожирением, при прочих равных условиях.

Our understanding of whether, to what extent, and under which conditions religions nowadays influence birth levels depends on research. It is important to seek answers to two fundamental questions. The first question is about the role of religiosity and religious affiliation in the deterministic cause of low fertility and family planning in recent times. The second question deals with the influence of religious institutions on birth levels and the exercise of reproductive rights at the global level and within certain population groups over recent decades. To that end, the paper provides an overview of theoretical examinations of the connection between religions and fertility, empirical studies addressing low completed fertility, birth control, or sexual behaviour in relation to religiosity or religious affiliation of individuals, as well as the influence of religious institutions on fertility transition and the respect of human rights in this field. A review of the recent studies of various populations characterised by low birth levels shows that religiosity, especially practising religion, encourages people to uphold traditional values, attitudes, and behaviours that are directly or indirectly related to the concepts of marriage and childbearing. Moreover, it sheds light on some examples of religious institutions’ concrete opposition to progress in this area, while also highlighting contradictory cases of religions supporting pro-found contemporary changes in reproductive behaviour. [Project of the Serbian Ministry of Education, Science and Technological Development, Grant no. III 47006]

The main source for this article is a population census carried out in Przemyśl in 1918, previously unused in any scientific research. Using a survey method, it encompassed single households; only some of the material exists to this day, a larger part stored in the Sanok Archive, and a smaller in the National Archive in Przemyśl. The census combined the elements of the earlier “State of Souls” (status animarum) in relation to households and the more modern type of Austrian survey to which new categories were added; its original form enables new methods for analyzing the local population of that area. The circumstances in which the census was carried out are unknown; we can assume that it was conducted by the local magistrate, due to food shortages and mass migration of the population (including the military) to the city. The surviving 1,163 cards enable us to pinpoint personal data from the respondents, such as sex, age, religion and nationality, place of birth and address, and in some cases social status and profession.