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The paper introduces for the most frequently used three-dimensional fixed effects panel data models the appropriate Within estimators. It analyzes the behaviour of these estimators in the case of no-self-flow data, unbalanced data and dynamic autoregressive models.

Bangladesh has entered into several regional FTA agreements and is in the process of signing bilateral FTA agreements with a number of countries. The study uses several models such as WITS/SMART global partial equilibrium model, SAM multiplier model, CGE model and an employment satellite matrix to explore the employment effects in Bangladesh out of three different FTA scenarios. In the WITS/SMART model, three FTA scenarios are run which assume full elimination of bilateral tariff between Bangladesh and India (under Bangladesh-India bilateral FTA), full elimination of bilateral tariff between Bangladesh and Malaysia (under Bangladesh-Malaysia bilateral FTA) and full elimination of tariff on trade among the BIMSTEC member countries (under BIMSTEC). The analysis of the macro impacts of the FTA scenarios suggest that such bilateral and regional FTAs would be beneficial for Bangladesh in terms of impact on consumer prices, exports, real wages and employment. At the sectoral level, a number of export oriented sectors would gain from such FTAs. However, the sectoral level impacts also suggest that a large number of sectors would experience fall in production because of large inflow of imports, which will result in loss in employment in these sectors. Therefore, these FTAs have important sectoral implications in terms of production, exports, import and employment. It however appears that at the aggregate level employment would rise which would mean that the loss in employment in some sectors will be more than compensated by rise in employment in other sectors. Therefore, the net effect on employment is likely to be positive.

Ricardian trade theory was based on the cost of labor at a time when grain and other consumer goods accounted for most subsistence spending. But today's budgets are dominated by payments to the finance, insurance, and real estate (FIRE) sector and to newly privatized monopolies. This has made FIRE the determining factor in trade competitiveness. The major elements in US family budgets are housing (with prices bid up on credit), debt service, and health insurance-and wage withholding for financializing Social Security and Medicare. Industrial firms also have been financialized, using debt leverage to increase their return on equity. The effect is for interest to increase as a proportion of cash flow (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization, or EBITDA). Corporate raiders pay their high-interest bondholders, while financial managers also are using EBITDA for stock buybacks to increase share prices (and hence the value of their stock options). Shifting taxes off property and onto employment and retail sales spurs the financialization of family and business budgets as tax cuts on property are capitalized into higher bank loans. Payments to government agencies for taxes and presaving for Social Security and Medicare absorb another 30 percent of family budgets. These transfer payments to the FIRE sector and government agencies have transformed international cost structures, absorbing roughly 75 percent of US family budgets. This helps explain the deteriorating US industrial trade balance as the economy has become financialized.

Agriculture is a major economic activity in Bangladesh. It currently employs around 50 percent of country’s labor force and contributes around 20 percent of country’s GDP. Growth in agricultural sector has important linkages with the overall economy through various channels. It is important to note that, at the WTO, Bangladesh, as an LDC, is not bound to undertake any liberalisation in its domestic agricultural sector in terms of tariff cut or subsidy withdrawal. However, there are concerns that actions taken by the developed and developing countries in terms of reduction in agricultural domestic support measures might have important negative implications for the net food importing countries like Bangladesh. It is also important to note that under bilateral trading arrangements, such as India-Bangladesh bilateral FTA, there are scopes for increased trade in agricultural products between Bangladesh and India. Bangladesh’s market access for its agricultural exports in India is likely to increase whereas there will be increased imports of agricultural products from India. Therefore, liberalisation in the trade in agriculture has important implications for the agricultural commodities which are either exported or imported. Increased market access of agricultural exports from Bangladesh under such trade agreement will lead to rise in production and employment in those export-oriented sectors; whereas, domestic liberalisation in the agricultural sectors may dampen output and employment in the import-competing agricultural sectors. It thus appears that the growth in the domestic agricultural sector doesn’t only rely on the domestic policies and programs, rather global and regional trade policies have important implications for this sector. Moreover, the various economic policies and programs, such as domestic fiscal policies, import policies and programs for growth in agricultural productivity also affect the development of the agricultural sector in an economy. This study explores the links between major economic policy reforms and growth the agricultural sector in Bangladesh. This study examines how economic policy reforms affect the agricultural sector in Bangladesh in terms of output, import, export and employment. Under a general equilibrium framework, this study explores three trade liberalization scenarios (a global agricultural trade liberalization scenario under WTO-Doha agreement, Bangladesh – India bilateral FTA, and domestic agricultural trade liberalization), one fiscal policy scenario (rise in agricultural subsidy) and one technological change scenario (rise in agricultural productivity).

This paper introduces a new methodology for the estimation of demand trade elasticities based on an import intensity-adjusted measure of aggregate demand, with the foundation of a stylized theoretical model. We compute the import intensity of demand components by using the OECD Input-Output tables. We argue that the composition of demand plays a key role in trade dynamics because of the large movements in the most import-intensive categories of expenditure (especially investment, but also exports). We provide evidence in favor of these mechanisms for a panel of 18 OECD countries, paying particular attention to the 2008-09 Great Trade Collapse.

Unfavorable geopolitical situation and small scale of economy, trade balance deficit and raw-materials export enforce Armenia to look for new geographical and product perspectives in its foreign trade. Our paper aims to estimate trade potential for Armenia by product groups in regional and international directions using gravity approach. Applied gravity model estimates trade flows, which are disaggregated into 7 groups according to BEC’s 1-digit classification, between 139 countries during 2003-2007. Our key findings imply that trade relations of Armenia with most of main trade partners have no potential to develop. Armenia has exceeded its export potential almost with all the CIS countries. Trade relations with the EU countries should be re-considered on both product and geographical directions. Re-opening of Armenian-Turkish border could provide significant economic benefit for Armenian exporters. The most perspective product groups of Armenian export seem to be “Industrial supplies”, “Food and beverages”, and “Consumer goods”.

Quantitative results from a large class of structural gravity models of international trade depend critically on the elasticity of trade with respect to trade frictions. We develop a new simulated method of moments estimator to estimate this elasticity from disaggregate price and trade-flow data and we use it within Eaton and Kortum's (2002) Ricardian model. We apply our estimator to disaggregate price and trade-flow data for 123 countries in the year 2004. Our method yields a trade elasticity of roughly four, nearly fifty percent lower than Eaton and Kortum's (2002) approach. This difference doubles the welfare gains from international trade.

Using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model of the world economy (MIRAGE), we simulate the impacts of the most recent drafts circulated in the multilateral trade negotiations arena, augmented by a modest outcome of the negotiation in services. The liberalisation of tariffs is implemented at the product level in order to take into account exceptions, flexibilities as well as the non-linear design of the formulas. A reduction in domestic support and the phasing out of export subsidies are taken into account. We integrate dynamic gains up to 2025. We observe a $US70bn world Gross Domestic Product (GDP) long run gain when agriculture and industry are liberalised, a $US85bn gain when a 3% reduction in protection for services is added to certain services sectors. Calculation of the gains associated with trade facilitation suggests roughly a doubling of the expected gains ($US152bn); port efficiency adds another $US35bn. In total, the $US187bn gains identified here in the scenario combining liberalisation in trade in goods and services with trade facilitation and port efficiency, would accumulate to world GDP every year in the medium term, compared to the situation without agreement. Recent proposals for sectoral initiatives would add a further $US15bn on top of these gains.

This paper introduces a new way of investigating linear and nonlinear Granger causality between exports, imports and economic growth in France over the period 1961-2006 with using geostatistical models (kiriging and inverse distance weighting). Geostatistical methods are the ordinary methods for forecasting the locations and making map in water engineerig, environment, environmental pollution, mining, ecology, geology and geography. Although, this is the first time which geostatistics knowledge is used for economic analyzes. In classical econometrics there do not exist any estimator which have the capability to find the best functional form in the estimation. Geostatistical models investigate simultaneous linear and various nonlinear types of causality test, which cause to decrease the effects of choosing functional form in autoregressive model. This approach imitates the Granger definition and structure but improve it to have better ability to investigate nonlinear causality. Results of both VEC and Improved-VEC (with geostatistical methods) are similar and show existance of long run unidirectional causality from exports and imports to economic growth. However the F-statistic of improved-VEC is larger than VEC indicating that there are some exponential and spherical functions in the VEC structure instead of the linear form.

This paper develops a structural empirical general equilibrium model of aggregate bilateral trade with path dependence of country-pair level exporter status. Such path dependence is motivated through informational costs about serving a foreign market for first-time entry of (firms in) an export market versus continued export services to that market. We embed the theoretical model into a structural dynamic stochastic econometric model of bilateral selection into export markets and apply it to a data-set of aggregate bilateral exports among 120 countries over the period 1995-2004. In particular, we disentangle the role of changes in trade costs, in labor endowments, and in total factor productivity for trade, bilateral market entry, numbers of firms active, and welfare. Dynamic gains from trade differ significantly from static ones, and path-dependence in market entry cushions effects of impulses in fundamental variables that are detrimental to bilateral trade.

The present paper studies the modelling of inter-regional trade flows in the newly developed general equilibrium model of European Commission, Rhomolo. In contrast to international trade, usually, trade of goods and services between regions is not recorded statistically. As a result, no statistical data exists for inter-regional trade, which could be readily used for modelling purposes. We propose an augmented entropy approach, which combines the Transtools model’s inter-regional trade and inter-regional transport cost data with data from regional and national statistics to obtain a full set of balanced bilateral trade data for all inter-regional transactions.

This paper shows that there are significant prospects of rise in intra-regional trade among the four Eastern South Asian countries. The partial equilibrium modelling exercise helps identify the products with high export potentiality. Simulation exercise based on a global general equilibrium model suggests that though there are prospects of welfare gains for India, Pakistan and Sri Lanka, there are risks of welfare loss for Bangladesh and other LDCs in South Asia out of FTA in goods under the SAFTA agreement because of the fact that the trade diversion effects could be larger than trade creation effects for these countries. However, such welfare loss could be well compensated by the rise in welfare due to improvement in trade facilitation among the South Asian countries. It also appears that the gains from trade facilitation are much bigger than the gains from trade liberalisation. Interactions with the stakeholders in Bangladesh helped identify a number of factors which are constraining trade in Eastern South Asia sub-region. These include inadequate facilities at the land and sea ports, weak physical infrastructure, inefficient bureaucracy, corruption and several forms of NTBs. Removal of such trade barriers though improvement in trade facilitation measures will generate significant rise in trade among these countries.

This paper analyzes the impact of firm networks on Japan 's national border effect. We estimate gravity equations using data on Japan s international and interregional trade in four machinery industries (electrical, general, precision and transportation machinery). The machinery sector is the most important manufacturing sector for exports and outward foreign direct investment (FDI) in Japan. By taking into account international as well as interregional firm networks, we find that ownership relations usually enhance exports from parent firms to establishment. Consequently we can explain 15% (7%, 1% and 0.5%) of the decline in Japan 's border effect from 1980 to 1995 in precision (transportation, general electrical) machinery sector by the increase of international networks.

This study investigates the impact of global crisis shocks on India’s trade and industry. We use both panel data modeling and vector autoregression techniques to understand the dynamic effects of global crisis shocks on Indian industry and trade. The estimated results of panel data models show that changes in trade composition are positively associated with changes in manufacturing composition in India, controlling for other variables. However, there is no strong indication that Indian industry has been severely harmed by the fall in demand in crisis-affected advanced economies such as the United States (US), the European Union (EU), and Japan, holding other things constant. Since there may be lags between changes in composition in export and industry, the study then explores the dynamic effects of global crisis shocks on Indian industry and trade with the help of vector autoregression techniques. The findings of the study indicate that the compositional change in industry has responded significantly to exports to the US, Japan, and the EU in the crisis period. Variance decomposition of compositional change in industry reveals that during the pre-crisis period, almost 100% of the variation in compositional change in industry depended on its own variation, while in the crisis period about 20% of the variation in compositional change in industry has depended on the exports to the EU, Japan, and the US. Therefore, the effect of global crisis shocks of India’s exports to advanced economies during the crisis period has been transmitted to Indian industry. However, Indian industry has not responded significantly to the shocks of imports from the advanced economies, while the response to its own shocks is significant during both pre- and postcrisis periods. The study also indicates that India’s trade openness has responded mildly to the shock of exports to the US. India’s trade with the US, coupled with US GDP, has significantly contributed to the variability of India’s trade openness in the crisis period, accounting for 40% of the variation of the trade-GDP ratio of India, whereas India’s trade with the EU and Japan has had either no effect or very insignificant effect on India’s trade openness. This study suggests that Indian industry has not been significantly harmed by the ongoing global crisis. Even though India continues to enjoy relatively large domestic demand, the compositional change (positive) in the manufacturing sector would decrease if the crisis continues, resulting in a slowdown in growth and a rise in stagnation.

We collect extensive data on worldwide trade by transportation mode and use this to provide detailed comparisons of the greenhouse gas emissions associated with output versus international transportation of traded goods. International transport is responsible for 33 percent of world-wide trade-related emissions, and over 75 percent of emissions for major manufacturing categories like machinery, electronics and transport equipment. US exports intensively make use of air cargo; as a result two-thirds of its export-related emissions are due to international transport, and US exports by themselves generate a third of transport emissions worldwide. Inclusion of transport dramatically changes the ranking of countries by emission intensity. US production emissions per dollar of exports are 16 percent below the world average, but once we include transport US emissions per dollar exported are 59 percent above the world average. We use our data to systematically investigate whether trade inclusive of transport can lower emissions. In one-quarter of cases, the difference in output emissions is more than enough to compensate for the emissions cost of transport. Finally, we examine how likely patterns of trade growth will affect modal use and emissions. Full liberalization of tariffs and GDP growth concentrated in China and India lead to transport emissions growing much faster than the value of trade, due to trade shifting toward distant trading partners. Emissions growth from growing GDP dwarfs any growth from tariff liberalization.

Commissioned by the European Commission, the Final Report for the EU-Canada Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA) on the EU-Canada Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) provides a comprehensive assessment of the potential impacts of trade liberalisation under CETA. The analysis assesses the economic, social and environmental impacts in Canada and the European Union in three main sectors, sixteen sub-sectors and across seven cross-cutting issues. It predicts a number of macro-economic and sector-specific impacts. The macro analysis suggests the EU may see increases in real GDP of 0.02-0.03% in the long-term from CETA, whereas Canada may see increases of 0.18-0.36%. The Investment section of the report suggests these numbers could be higher when factoring in investment increases. At the sectoral level, the study predicts the greatest gains in output and trade to be stimulated by services liberalisation and by the removal of tariffs applied on sensitive agricultural products. It also suggests CETA could have a positive social impact if it includes provisions on the ILO’s Core Labour Standards and Decent Work Agenda. The study also details a variety of impacts in various “cross-cutting” components of CETA. It finds CETA would stimulate investment in Canada, and to a lesser extent in the EU; and finds costs outweigh the benefits of including controversial NAFTA-style investor-state dispute settlement (ISDS) provisions in CETA. It predicts potentially imbalanced benefits from a government procurement (GP) chapter. The study assumes CETA will lead to an upward harmonisation in intellectual property rights (IPR) regulations, particularly in Canada, which will have a number of effects. It predicts some notable impacts in terms of competition policy, as well as trade facilitation, free circulation of goods and labour mobility.

In this paper, we examine a series of questions about bilateral trade flows in the light of a rich and up-to-date panel data set. The analyses performed reveal that (1) globalization process has been functioning in a number of ways, (2) functioning of economic regions display alternative results based on model specification, (3) distance is an important factor in the functioning of economic regions, (4) trade relationships do strengthen when countries move toward stronger degrees of their regimes, regardless of democratic or autocratic, (5) the same polity direction implies a higher degree of trade between countries, (6) given the joint regime strength (common direction of regimes) of trade partners, common direction of regimes (higher joint regime strength) implies lower trade, (7) partners belonging to the same religion trade less, (8) partners with the same language trade more among themselves, (9) given that partners are of the same religion (language), same language (religion) implies lower trade.

We study the potential consequences of a hypothetical trade boycott against Catalan products organized by some sectors of the Spanish society mainly for political reasons. A symmetric trade boycott would have two effects: a reduction of Catalan exports to Spain and a partial process of import substitution in Catalonia. In order to quantify the economic impact of the boycott, we compare the "actual" Catalan economy, as described in the input-output table for 2005, with a "simulated" Catalan economy that takes into account the effects of a boycott on the trade exchanges between Catalonia and Spain.

This paper investigates the optimal dynamic paths of trade protection imposed on infant industries during the process of joining a free trade agreement. The framework is based on the dynamic learning-by-doing model developed in Melitz (2005), where industries are experiencing dynamic externalities. In this framework, restricted-time protection is introduced as a realistic approach to correspond to the conditions of actual agreements. According to the computational analysis, in some feasible cases of optimal tariff paths may not follow a downward trend, as conventional wisdom would suggest. The results of the numerical simulation applied to the Vietnamese motorcycle industry support these findings.

In this paper, we examine possible medium-term changes in EU trade policy, including the negotiation and implementation of Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with regional entities like ASEAN and the NAFTA countries. We also examine the possible conclusion of the Doha Round of multilateral trade negotiations. Such changes in policy at the regional and global level imply changes in trade policy and industrial structure that affect Austria as part of the network of European industry. To accomplish this, we work with a computable general equilibrium model (CGE) of the Austrian economy and its major global trading partners. This model is benchmarked to 2020 macroeconomic projections. The modeling scenarios are based on a mix of tariff reductions for goods and non-tariff barriers (NTB) reductions for services. The services liberalization scenario is based on protection with an “actionability” assumption. The results include estimated changes in GDP, welfare, as well as in the value added contained in Austrian exports. The focus on value added provides important insight to the overall impact on the Austrian economy. In all policy cases examined, the striking messages is the importance of high technology services (ICT and other business services) to the total growth in Austrian exports, on a value added basis. This reflects both the high value added content of trade in this sector, and the apparent comparative advantage of Austria in this sector in the 2020 baseline.

In this note we quantify how much the of the increase in the volume of international trade that took place since 1945 is due to the reclassification of within-country trade to international trade due to changes in national boundaries. We do so by imposing the territorial delimitations corresponding to 1946 to the current trade flow data, thus quantifying the volume of international trade that would not have been labeled international given national boundaries right after the end of World War II. Our results show that the effect of “boundary redrawing” corresponds roughly to 1% of the total volume of international trade. If colonial trade had been statistically considered to be within-country (within-empire) trade instead of international trade the independence of colonies would have raised this effect to approximately 3% of total trade.

This article draws a picture of the current status of the liberalization process in the Euro-Mediterranean region, and reviews existing studies of this process. Economic integration among the South-Med countries (SMCs) has started in the middle 1990s through intra-regional agreements (GAFTA, Agadir Agreement) and bilateral agreements with the EU. Econometric studies using gravity models generally found important trade creation effects for intra-regional trade, but smaller and asymmetric effects from EU-Med agreements, with an increase of export flows from the EU but no increase of flows in the other direction. Simulations with CGE models shows the main sources of gains (trade creation) and of losses (trade diversion, terms of trade) for SMCs. Studies also suggest that a dismantling of non-tariff barriers and of barriers in services trade could yield substantial gains for SMCs. A table with existing agreements and a picture of economic flows in the region can be found in the annex.

Recent analyses of the possible adverse effects of climate change and policy responses on agriculture and mining have raised food and energy security concerns in both rich and poorer countries. Analysing possible effects of ways of dealing with those concerns requires first projecting the world economy forward to 2050 and beyond. This paper provides as background a set of projections to 2050, drawing on the global economy-wide model known as GTAP. The projection is calibrated to ensure the real prices of primary products remain broadly unchanged from their levels in the model's base year of 2004. Alternative scenarios could have been calibrated to show (a) rising real prices for both food and energy raw materials (consistent with forecasts of several international agencies), by assuming some slowdown in productivity growth in primary sectors, or (b) declining real prices for agricultural and mining products (consistent with the experience of most of the 20th century), by assuming somewhat faster productivity growth in primary sectors. The set of projections shown for 2030 and 2050 is thus an intermediate set. The key impacts on international prices, agricultural self-sufficiency, sectoral shares of national economies and national shares of the global economy are highlighted. The paper concludes with implications for R&D spending and research policy.

While several culprits have been proposed to explain the current trade collapse (e.g. the credit crunch, global production chains, generalised loss of confidence), the great synchronisation underlying the collapse suggests that it is very probably their interaction, rather than each individual effect, that might best explain why international trade has taken such an epic hit in this global crisis. The high-frequency pattern of trade flows also reveals systemic propagation effects during the crisis that would be interesting to analyze further, as well as new patterns in the structure of trade flows. All these issues open interesting research questions for international trade economists.

Consequences of the ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) are investigated using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Quantitative assessments of the effects on economic welfare, trade flows and sectoral output are offered. When the removal of trade barriers are combined with reductions in administrative and technical barriers and lowering the trade and transport margins under the assumption of endogenously determined productivity, the estimated welfare gains for the year 2015 range from 1.1% in Indonesia to 9.4% in Thailand. The results suggest that streamlining customs procedures and other reductions in administrative and technical barriers, as well as increased competition and improvements in infrastructure, are significant in enlarging the benefits of the AEC.

Since firm heterogeneity has been introduced into international trade models, the importance of firm entry and exit (the extensive margin) has been highlighted. In fact, Chaney (2008) illustrates how accounting for this extensive margin and heterogenous firms alters the standard gravity equation; thereby reversing the previously predicted effect the elasticity of substitution has on the elasticity of trade flows. Furthermore, Cole (forthcoming) points out that ad valorem tariffs affect the extensive margin quite differently than the commonly used iceberg transport cost. In this paper, I show that the elasticity of trade flows with respect to tariffs is more elastic than that of iceberg transport costs. Thus, elasticity estimates derived from variables such as distance may underestimate the effect caused by a change in tariffs.

Quantitative results from a large class of international trade models depend critically on the elasticity of trade with respect to trade frictions. We develop a simulated method of moments estimator to estimate this elasticity from disaggregate price and trade-flow data using the Ricardian model. We motivate our estimator by proving that the estimator developed in Eaton and Kortum (2002) is biased in any finite sample. We quantitatively show that the bias is severe and that the data requirements necessary to eliminate it in practice are extreme. Applying our estimator to new disaggregate price and trade-flow data for 123 countries in the year 2004 yields a trade elasticity of roughly four, nearly fifty percent lower than Eaton and Kortum’s (2002) approach. This difference doubles the welfare gains from international trade.

This paper provides trade flow projections for major Asian developing economies (ADEs) for the next two decades against the backdrop of an in-depth analysis of policy shifts and trade patterns over the past 4 decades. Merchandise trade of ADEs has grown at a much faster rate in the global context, with a distinct intraregional bias. Global production sharing has become a unique feature of the economic landscape of the region, with the People’s Republic of China playing a pivotal complementary role as the premier assembly center within the regional production networks. According to the projections made within the standard gravity modeling framework, total real nonoil trade of ADEs would increase at an average annual rate of 8.2 during the next two decades, with a notable convergence of individual countries’ rates to the regional average. The share of intraregional trade in total nonoil trade would increase steadily from 53% in 2010 to 58% in 2030. The trade-to-GDP ratio would increase from 39.4% and 74.4% between these 2 years. These predictions need to be treated with caution as they are based on the assumption that the trade structure pertaining to the estimation period will remain unchanged in the next 2 decades.

The paper aims at assessing the specific impact of shallow versus deep integration between Mediterranean (MED) countries1 and their partners in the European Union (EU) as well as between the MED countries themselves. It relies on dataset developed for this project concerning tariffs (as a proxy for shallow integration) and Non Tariff Measures (NTMs)2 (as a proxy for deep integration). Additional data are also included in order to take into account other trade costs, especially transport costs and logistics costs. In this regard, an original dataset of maritime freight cost (Maersk, 2007) is introduced as well as the trade logistics performance (TLP) index produced by the World Bank. Such datasets are useful for providing additional insight into deep integration. The paper starts by calculating the magnitude of NTMs in terms of ad valorem tariff equivalent (AVEs). The estimation of NTMs through ad valorem equivalents (AVEs) shows that Algeria and Jordan have the highest value of AVEs, whereas Tunisia, Morocco, and Egypt have the lowest value. A gravity model is then estimated with special emphasis on trade costs which are the crucial point in our research study. Given the limitation of data on NTMs, the gravity model is estimated for only one year (2001), and for each MED country. Trade costs are represented by tariffs, AVEs of NTMs, and transport and logistics costs. The idea is to test which of the three elements of trade costs are the most impeding to bilateral trade between MED countries and EU countries as well as amongst MED countries. The model shows that tariffs, NTMs, and trade and logistics costs have a significant impact on trade, but is highly vivid in countries suffering from high tariff rates, prevalence of NTMs, and trade costs. A number of simulations are carried out trying to differentiate between the impact of partial liberalization and full liberalization on trade creation. The results obtained show that full liberalization has a significant effect whether it is only related to shallow integration (tariff removal) or deep integration (NTMs and trade and logistics). The effect is higher if trade costs and logistics are improved. The results are far less if only partial liberalization takes place and in several countries is insignificant implying that marginal reductions in NTMs or tariffs cannot always help to create trade. Finally the study shows that there is a huge potential for enhancing trade amongst MED countries if trade costs are lowered, logistics is improved, and NTMs are abolished.

Joining the European Union big opportunities in the international markets have opened for Latvia. Paper purpose is to investigate influence of international integration processes on development of economy of Latvia. Latvia's incoming in EU increased the amount of received means from structural and cohesion funds, removed the trading barriers, increases foreign investments, reduced unemployment and increased labor migration. In the paper the system dynamics model, which describes integration of the Latvian economy into EU, is developed. In the model international financial flows connected with Latvia and EU; import, its relation to internal producing; and migration processes are considered. Model functioning is measured considering various scenarios of situation development. The developed model can be used not only in the analysis of Latvia’s economic integration in the EU, but on its basis it is possible to create models of regional cohesion in Europe.

In this paper the authors develop an innovative 21 sector computable general equilibrium model of Armenia to assess the impact on Armenia of a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA) with the EU, as well as further regional or multilateral trade policy commitments. They find that a DCFTA with the EU will likely result in substantial gains to Armenia, but they show that the gains derive from the deep aspects of the agreement. In order of importance, the sources of the gains are: (i) trade facilitation and reduction in border costs; (ii) services liberalization; and (iii) standards harmonization. A shallow agreement with the EU that focuses only on preferential tariff liberalization in goods will likely lead to small losses to Armenia primarily due to a loss of productivity from lost varieties of technologies from the Rest of the World region in manufactured products. Additional gains can be expected in the long run from an improvement in the investment climate. The authors estimate only small gains from a services agreement with the CIS countries, but significant gains from expanding services liberalization multilaterally.

[EN] The effects of climate change on agriculture raise major food security concerns. We use a global economy-wide model to assess the effects on farm product prices of expected yield changes. Also modelled is an expected adverse effect of higher temperatures and humidity in the tropics on the productivity of unskilled workers in developing countries. Given the degrees of uncertainty about plausible effects of climate change, our modelling accounts for a range of yield productivity and labor shocks. The results entail consequences for international agricultural prices, national food consumption, self sufficiency, net farm income and economic welfare., [ES] Los efectos de variaciones climáticas sobre las actividades agrícolas han provocado preocupación acerca de los impactos en la seguridad alimentaria. Este estudio usa un modelo global de economía-general para evaluar los efectos de variaciones en la productividad de las cosechas, y una disminución de la productividad laboral en los trópicos debido a incrementos en la temperatura y humedad en países menos desarrollados. Considerando el grado de incertidumbre acerca de los posibles efectos de las variaciones climáticas, nuestro estudio toma en cuenta rangos de efectos sobre la productividad agrícola y laboral. Los resultados muestran consecuencias sobre los precios agrícolas mundiales, consumo nacional, auto-suficiencia, ingreso neto agrícola y bienestar económico.

This study explores trends and perspectives of Lithuania's trade in agricultural and food products with the BRIC countries. Agriculture is one of the priority sectors of Lithuania's economy and plays an important economic and social role. The share of agricultural and food products within the overall foreign trade of Lithuania is significant, and exports to the BRIC countries account for nearly one third of the Lithuanian agricultural and food products exports. BRICs economic development and growing population leads to the increasing food consumption. The potential of these markets is attractive for Lithuania's foreign trade. Therefore, consideration of trade flow in food and agricultural products between Lithuania and the BRIC countries is currently very topical. The econometric forecasting model of Lithuania's Export and Import flows, created by the authors, was applied to predict trade with the BRIC countries in the medium-term period. The authors analyzed the structure of Lithuania's trade in agricultural and food products with the specific BRIC countries, estimated influence of external and internal factors changes.

We analyze the medium- and long-run effects of international integration of capital markets on specialization patterns of countries. For that purpose, we incorporate induced technical change into a Heckscher-Ohlin model with a continuum of final goods. This provides a comprehensive theory that explains the dynamics of comparative advantages based on differences in effective factor endowments. Our model constitutes an appropriate framework for understanding the changes in industrial structure of foreign trade observed, e.g., in the CEE countries over the last two decades. In addition, our approach provides a theoretical foundation for the empirical prospective comparative advantage index (Savin and Winker 2009) with new insights into the future dynamics of comparative advantages. Eventually, the model may serve as a basis to set development priorities in countries being in the period of transition.

A new “Ministerial” of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) will be held in Geneva 15-17 December 2011. Usually, such meeting of member countries at the ministerial level is supposed to unlock the ultimate details before a deal is concluded. The achievement of this ministerial will be more modest. The current Round of multilateral trade negotiations that was launched in Doha on 14th November 2001 has reached a critical point and the question now is how to salvage a decade of infructuous negotiations. Even an interim agreement dedicated to poor countries and trade facilitation is out of reach.

This study investigates the impact of global crisis shocks on South Asia’s trade and industry. We use both panel data modeling (PDM) and Vector Autoregression (VAR) techniques to understand the dynamic effects of global crisis shocks on Indian industry and trade. The estimated results of panel data models show that changes in trade composition are positively associated with changes in manufacturing composition in India, controlling for other variables. However, there is no strong indication to conclude that Indian industry has been severely affected by the fall in demand in crisis-affected advanced economies such as US, EU and Japan, holding other things constant. Since there may be lag(s) between changes in composition in export and industry, the study then explores the dynamic effects of global crisis shocks on Indian industry and trade with the help of Vector Autoregression (VAR) techniques. The findings of the study indicate that the compositional change in industry has responded significantly to the export to USA, Japan and EU in the crisis period. Variance decomposition of compositional change in industry reveals that during the pre-crisis period almost 100 percent of the variation in compositional change in industry depended on its own variation, while in the crisis period about 20 percent of the variation in compositional change in industry has depended on the exports to EU, Japan and US. Therefore, the effect of shocks of India’s exports to advanced economies during the crisis period has been transmitted to Indian industrial sector. However, Indian industry has not responded significantly to the shocks of imports from the advanced economies, while the response to its own shocks is significant during both pre- and post- crisis periods.

European integration is endangered by rising fears of sovereign default. Against this background, assessing the economic impacts attached to the Single Market is crucial to measuring the overall benefits provided by the European Union to its citizens. Over the last thirty years, substantial progress has been achieved to better integrate the markets of the member states. New evidence on barriers to trade in services and on non-tariffs obstacle to trade in goods confirms however that this process is far from being complete. Our economic simulation using the MIRAGE model concludes that the elimination of all remaining obstacles to trade would benefit the European Union by an order of magnitude two to three times larger than those already reaped so far. The complete elimination of obstacles to trade across the Single Market is indeed a stylised and unrealistic assumption. However, the magnitude of the potential gains is such that the study confirms undoubtedly the potential of the Single Market as one avenue to boost EU growth in the years to come and to escape from a vicious circle of recession.

When Vietnam entered WTO in 2007 it was granted an accession period up to 2014. During this period tariffs would have to fall according to the accession agreement. This paper evaluates this 2007-2014 trade liberalization by building an applied general equilibrium model and calibrating it to the Vietnamese data. The model pays careful attention to the fact that Vietnam has many state-owned enterprises that do not behave in a profit maximizing way. The model simulations show that the WTO imposed tariff reforms will reduce the overall welfare level of the Vietnamese households. Moreover, the biggest loss of income will take place among the poor rural households in Vietnam. We propose other tariff reforms that both raise overall welfare and reduce income inequality.

This paper presents numerical simulation results that suggest that China can both reduce its trade imbalance and receive welfare benefits by switching the value added tax (VAT) regime from the current destination principle to an origin principle. With the tax on exports exceeding that no longer collected on imports, revenues rise and exports fall. VAT regime switching is thus a possibility for China to receive a double benefit, rebalancing trade with a welfare gain. This has implications for present G20 discussions on finding ways to adjust global trade imbalances. Under a destination principle, imports are taxed but input taxes are rebated on exports (as currently). Under an origin basis imports are not taxed, but no export rebates are given. Previous VAT literature stresses the neutrality of tax basis switches, which simply reflect moving between consumption and production taxes, but neutrality only holds when trade is balanced. In the unbalanced trade case for countries with a trade surplus, such as China, an origin basis offers a lower tax rate on an equal yield basis and reduced exports. We use a two country endogenous trade imbalance general equilibrium global trade model with endogenous factor supply, a fixed exchange rate and a non-accommodative monetary policy structure which supports the Chinese trade imbalance. We calibrate model parameters to 2008 data and simulate counterfactual equilibria for VAT tax basis switches in which the trade imbalance changes. Our results suggest that given China's trade surplus VAT regime switching to an origin can decrease China's trade surplus by over 50%, and additionally increase Chinese and world welfare. The rest of the world's production and welfare improves simultaneously.

The paper provides an overview of the potential social, economic and environmental impacts of an EU-Libya FTA as gauged by the EU-Libya Sustainability Impact Assessment (SIA). The main potential benefits to both the EU and Libya from the proposed trade agreement come from closer cooperation in the energy sector rather than from the economy-wide effects of reducing trade barriers. The agreement may also have significant adverse effects that need to be taken into account.

This paper explores the impacts of reduced inflow of remittances and export earnings in the face of global financial crisis on the economy of Bangladesh. There is no denying the fact that remittances have emerged as a key driver of macroeconomic stability, economic growth and poverty reduction in Bangladesh. Also, Bangladesh experienced robust growth in export earnings, especially through the remarkable growth in readymade garments, over the last two decades. The study suggests that remittance plays a very important role in with regard to household well being measured by consumption level and their poverty incidence. The results from a CGE model suggest that a negative growth in remittance would result in fall in real GDP. The poorer households would appear to be the major victim of such a negative shock. Also a negative shock on the exports of readymade garments would decline real GDP and would lead to reduction in real return to labor. This would also lead to raise incidence of poverty. There is a growing apprehension in the country that due to global financial crisis, flow of international remittance to Bangladesh may likely to slowdown adversely affecting the economy and the household level welfare. Also, the export sectors might be at risk of facing the reduced world demand. Considering the important role of remittances and exports, appropriate policies by the government is very important to tackle the possible adverse situation.

This research provided the study of importance of factors affecting the decision making of out-sourcing & supplier performance in Textiles domain. The textile market of USA is the scope of this research. The basis of this study allowed comprehending the importance / weight of factors of out-sourcing (including Delivery, Flexibility, Cost, Quality & Reliability) varied according to the buyers needs. Buyer’s needs some factors were high weight / importance for one buyer and at the same time the same factors were low weight / for another buyer. It delineated the root to supply chain managers and experts for textiles industry for taking the right strategic decision for out-sourcing in today’s competitive market.

This paper analyzes the impact that terms of trade (TOT) are likely to have on the growth of the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC) neighboring countries. Two scenarios employing a dynamic computable general equilibrium framework are considered: (i) a convergence scenario, where historical trends are projected; and (ii) a baseline scenario, where technological progress in the PRC is placed in line with that of the United States (US). The results show that the PRC’s technological convergence leads to increased world prices for mining products, and lower world prices for manufactures, especially those exported extensively by the PRC. On the whole, however, the effects on the growth and TOT of the PRC’s neighboring countries are relatively small. The modelling framework used in this study explicitly captures the various offsetting effects that dampen the impact on TOT and contribute to the small impact on growth. In addition, the additional capital required to finance the PRC’s growth comes predominantly from domestic savings, placing little pressure on the global supply of capital. Thus, an awakening PRC is unlikely to make a dramatic entrance despite the country’s overall positive impact on the region – although there is nothing to fear, there is also only little to gain.

This paper assesses the pre and post Free Trade Agreement (FTA) pattern in bilateral trade between Pakistan and Sri Lanka. Besides the usual direction of trade analysis we also use general and partial equilibrium approaches in order to evaluate the true potential of this FTA. Our results reveal an increase in welfare and efficiency for both countries. However export basket has not changed much since pre-FTA period. This calls for creating awareness about the FTA and putting in place a consultative mechanism with trade community that can identify the manner in which both countries can accrue maximum benefit from the free movement of tradable goods. Similar suggestions follow in our perception survey carried out for this study.

The underlying model analyzes the first time foreign market entry decision of a representative investor who can choose between export and FDI. The model combines the proximity-concentration trade-off framework with the real option methodology and sheds light on the effects of productivity growth. On the basis of a Geometric Brownian motion, three different productivity scenarios are considered (no growth, deterministic growth, uncertain growth) and opposed to each other. The introduction of productivity growth increases the likeliness of first time market entry through FDI. If the firm is confronted with uncertain productivity growth, market entry through FDI increases even further. Uncertainty is identified as a compounding force for the derived growth effects. The findings contribute to the static general equilibrium models which neglect intertemporal selection effects.

We introduce endogenous investments for increasing conventional and non-conventional oil extraction capacity in the integrated assessment model WITCH. The international price of oil emerges as the Nash equilibrium of a non-cooperative game. When carbon emissions are not constrained, oil is used throughout the century, with unconventional oil taking over conventional oil from mid-century onward. When carbon emissions are constrained, oil consumption drops dramatically and the oil price is lower than in the BaU. Unconventional oil is not extracted. Regional imbalances in the distribution of stabilisation costs are magnified and the oil-exporting countries bear, on average, costs three times larger than in previous estimates.

Today, more than 50 years after the Rome Treaty, the EU has made great strides in its’ economic integration and liberalization of movement of goods and people. International trade theory predicts deepening economic integration inside the European Union will increase regional trade and have large effects on agglomeration of industry patterns. In particular, the Core Periphery theory predicts the core of Western Europe and center of economic prosperity will spread economic growth to the periphery through increased integration. Thus, it is hoped that the EU Core, who benefit from their central location and a long history of integration in Western Europe, will increase growth to the periphery through deepening integration and a relative drop in trade costs. Critics cite the Spring 2010 debt crisis in Greece and subsequent shock to Euro zone stability as an indication that EU integration has not been successful. Given increased skepticism of the Euro zone, measuring changes in trade costs between 2001 Euro adopters and the main trading partners provides one quantitative measure to better understand the depth of EU integration in the recent period from 1989‐2006. Using the Novy (2008) model, which measures bilateral trade costs directly from trade flows, the measure includes all trade costs incurred in getting a good to its’ final user, other than the production cost of the good itself. Results show the drop in trade costs over the more recent period 1995‐2006 to be largest for trade between countries who adopt the Euro in 2001 (‐53%). The second largest drop in bilateral trade costs is between 2001 Euro adopters and the Central Eastern European Countries who joined the EU in 2004 (‐49%). The third largest drop in bilateral trade costs is between the 2001 Euro adopters group and the large non‐continental Europe trading partners (‐45%). Large differences in trade costs appear between countries within the 2001 Euro adopters who are considered members of the Core versus those in the Periphery. Over the 1995‐ 2006 period trade costs drop by 24% more for trade within the Core versus Trade between the Core and the Periphery. While the Core‐Periphery theory is slow to be realized in our empirical results of trade costs over the 1995‐2006 period; trade costs among EU members and Euro adopters are relatively large‐ 33‐53%‐ when compared to trade costs measured for the non‐continental European trading partners‐5%. This 7‐11 times larger drop in trade costs for trade intra‐EU and Euro adopter members‐ both original and accession‐ is an empirical testament to the EU’s success at integrating diverse economies within the union.

Since firm heterogeneity has been introduced into international trade models, the importance of firm entry and exit (the extensive margin) has been highlighted. Thomas Chaney (2008) illustrates how accounting for heterogenous firms (and this extensive margin) alters the standard gravity equation. In particular, it reverses the previously predicted effect the elasticity of substitution has on the elasticity of trade flows. Further, Chaney shows that the elasticity of trade flows with respect to variable trade costs is a constant. As is common, iceberg transport costs are used as the variable trade barrier. However, in many empirical studies, ad valorem tariffs are also used as a form of trade barrier, which as Cole (2010) points out, is not isomorphic to iceberg transport cost in a monopolistically competitive setting. In this comment, I solve the Chaney (2008) model using ad valorem tariffs instead of iceberg transport costs and show the elasticity of trade flows with respect to tariffs is not constant, but depends on the elasticity of substitution.

The U.S. recession could hurt the South, particularly in oil and apparel exports, and Latin America and the Caribbean. But South-South trade is partly picking up the slack. Middle-income countries are driving export diversification of low-income countries. Developing countries may be moving toward a new version of export-led growth.

The objective of this research has been to examine the impact of Doha round negotiations on the economy of India. This research looked into the impact of agricultural trade liberalisation and the impact of NAMA negations under the Doha negotiations, the combined effects of agricultural and NAMA negotiations, and the impact of liberalisation of the domestic services sectors. With a view to addressing these important issues, this study has examined the effects of the Doha agreement for India in a sequential dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) framework. A Social Accounting Matrix for the year 2006 has been used as the database. The major findings of these exercises suggest that agricultural liberalization under the Doha round would have very little effect on Indian GDP. The welfare effects are positive and the effects are stronger in the long run. Poverty falls for all household categories both in the short and long run. In sum, the agricultural trade liberalization would generate positive outcomes for the Indian economy. The NAMA scenario would lead to a rise in real GDP despite the fact that a number of manufacturing sector would contract. This is because of the more than offsetting effect of the expansion of textiles as well as some services and agricultural sectors. Poverty indices would rise for all household categories and the households relying more on non-agricultural capital income as well as on unskilled labour income would experience higher incidence of poverty. In sum, the NAMA scenario would lead to some negative outcomes for the Indian economy. The full Doha scenario would lead to rise in real GDP in the short run and the effect is stronger in the long run. In the short run, the aggregate welfare declines. However, in the long run the negative effect on welfare appears to be very minimal. In sum, the Doha scenario would lead to a mixed results.