Search

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: We examined the impact of hyperglycemia on ischemic and hemorrhagic stroke incidence comparing criteria based on fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-hour plasma glucose (2-hour PG). METHODS: Data from 9 European cohorts comprising 18 360 individuals between 25 to 90 years of age were collaboratively analyzed. The maximum length of follow-up varied between 4.9 to 36.8 years. Hazards ratios (95% confidence intervals) for stroke incidence were estimated using Cox-proportional hazards model adjusting for known risk factors. RESULTS: In individuals without a prior history of diabetes, the multivariate-adjusted hazards ratio for ischemic stroke corresponding to 1 SD increase in FPG was 1.12 (1.02 to 1.22) and in 2-hour PG 1.14 (1.05 to 1.24). Adding 2-hour PG to the model with FPG significantly improved the prediction of the model for the incidence of ischemic stroke (chi(2)=4.72, P=0.03), whereas FPG did not improve the 2-hour PG model prediction (chi(2)=0.25, P=0.62). A significantly increased hazard ratio was also observed for previously diagnosed diabetes (2.26 [1.51 to 3.38]) and for screen-detected diabetes defined by FPG (1.48 [1.08 to 2.02]) and 2-hour PG (1.60 [1.18 to 2.16]). None of the criteria predicted hemorrhagic stroke. CONCLUSIONS: Diabetes defined by either of the criteria predicted the future risk of ischemic stroke but not the hemorrhagic stroke. The prediction is stronger for elevated 2-hour PG than for FPG levels., Group Author(s): DECODE Study Group

BACKGROUND: Hypersensitive cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assays detect even minor elevations of cTnI. Previous findings identifying a group of seemingly healthy elderly men with very minor elevations of cTnI have shown that these men were at risk of premature cardiovascular death. OBJECTIVES: To study the association between cTnI concentrations and cardiovascular risk factors and subclinical cardiac and renal target organ damage in a community-based sample of elderly men. METHODS: Biomarkers reflecting glucose and lipid metabolism, renal function, cardiac function and inflammation were measured in the ULSAM study (n = 1205, mean age 71 years). The participants were placed in three subgroups based on the cTnI concentrations: a low group with cTnI <0.02 microg/L, an intermediate group with cTnI between 0.02 and 0.039 microg/L and a high group with cTnI >0.039 microg/L. RESULTS: In the entire cohort of 71-year-old men, most markers of glucose and lipid metabolism, renal function, inflammation and NT-proBNP were significantly related to the concentrations of cTnI, and most obviously in the high-cTnI group. In subjects with no signs of CVD (cardiovascular disease), only levels of NT-proBNP related to cTnI, and with the highest NT-proBNP levels in the high-cTnI group (p<0.01). A multiple regression analysis showed that NT-proBNP was independently related to cTnI (p<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Measurement of cardiac troponins with highly sensitive assays identifies those at risk of premature CVD death who have hitherto remained unrecognized. The associated elevations of NT-proBNP in these participants support the fact that these elevations reflect ongoing pathological processes in the myocardium.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The aim of this study of type 2 diabetic patients in the Swedish National Diabetes Register was to study the associations of BMI, overweight (BMI 25-29.9 kg/m(2)) and obesity (BMI >or= 30 kg/m(2)) with cardiovascular disease in type 2 diabetes, as these associations have not previously been clarified. METHODS: Patients aged 30-74 years with no previous CHD or stroke (N = 13,087) were followed for a mean of 5.6 years until 2003 for fatal or non-fatal CHD, stroke, cardiovascular disease (CHD or stroke) and total mortality. In total, 1,922 cardiovascular-disease events occurred, based on 64,864 person-years. RESULTS: The relative risks of CHD, stroke, cardiovascular disease and total mortality for a 5 unit increase in BMI at baseline were 15%, 11%, 13% and 27%, respectively, using Cox regression analysis, after adjusting for age, sex, diabetes duration, hypoglycaemic treatment and smoking (model 1), and were 9%, 4% (not significant), 7% and 20%, respectively, when adjusting also for HbA(1c), blood pressure, antihypertensive drugs, lipid-reducing drugs and microalbuminuria (model 2). Adjusted hazard ratios (model 1) for CHD, cardiovascular disease and total mortality with overweight were 1.27 (95% CI 1.09-1.48), 1.24 (1.09-1.41) and 1.16 (0.94-1.45), respectively, and 1.49 (1.27-1.76), 1.44 (1.26-1.64) and 1.71 (1.36-2.14) with obesity, as compared with normal weight. Significant hazard ratios were attenuated when adjusted according to model 2. For a 1 unit increase in BMI during follow-up, the relative risk of CHD (model 2) was 1.13 (1.04-1.23; p = 0.005). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Both overweight and obesity independently increased the risk of CHD and cardiovascular disease in patients with type 2 diabetes. The CHD risk was higher with increasing BMI than with stable or decreasing BMI during the study.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Our aim was to investigate the predictive power of a panel of variables in glucose and insulin metabolism for the incidence of stroke or transient ischaemic attacks (TIA). We hypothesised that proinsulin and insulin resistance contributes to an increase of risk for fatal and non-fatal stroke/TIA, independently of diabetes and established risk factors. METHODS: The study is based on the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men cohort. The examinations were performed at age 70 years. RESULTS: In 1,151 men free from stroke at baseline, 150 developed stroke or TIA during a median follow-up of 8.8 years. In unadjusted Cox proportional hazards analyses, a 1 SD increase of a predictor variable was associated with an increased risk for stroke/TIA, e.g. plasma insulin (HR 1.19, 95% CI 1.01-1.40), fasting intact proinsulin (HR 1.28, 95% CI 1.09-1.49); whereas a 1 SD increase in insulin sensitivity measured by the euglycaemic insulin clamp method decreased the risk for stroke/TIA (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68-0.96). The predictive values of fasting intact proinsulin and insulin sensitivity endured but not that of plasma insulin when adjusting for diabetes. In models adjusting for diabetes, hypertension, atrial fibrillation, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, serum cholesterol and smoking, proinsulin remained as a significant predictor of later stroke/TIA (HR 1.22, 95% CI 1.00-1.48) whereas clamp insulin sensitivity did not (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.71-1.07). CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Fasting intact proinsulin level and insulin sensitivity at clamp predicted subsequent fatal and non-fatal stroke/TIA, independently of diabetes in elderly men whereas fasting insulin did not.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: To investigate the association of serum concentrations and dietary intake of beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol with type 2 diabetes incidence. METHODS: Serum beta-carotene, alpha-tocopherol, lifestyle factors (BMI, physical activity and smoking) and metabolic factors (insulin sensitivity [homeostasis model assessment], acute insulin response and impaired fasting glucose) were analysed in 846 50-year-old non-diabetic Swedish men (participants in the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men). Diabetes was identified in 245 participants at reinvestigations after 10, 20 and 27 years. At the 20 year reinvestigation, dietary intake of beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol, insulin sensitivity (euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp) and insulin secretion (early insulin response in OGTT) were determined. RESULTS: The highest tertile of serum beta-carotene at age 50 (>0.335 mumol/l) was associated with 59% lower risk of diabetes during follow-up compared with the lowest tertile (<0.210 mumol/l) after adjustment for lifestyle and metabolic factors (p < 0.01). The highest tertile of lipid-corrected serum alpha-tocopherol at age 50 (>3.67 mumol/mmol) was associated with 46% lower risk of diabetes compared with the lowest tertile (<3.25 mumol/mmol) independently of metabolic factors (p < 0.05). Moreover, lower serum beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol concentrations were independently associated with impaired insulin sensitivity (p < 0.001), but not with early insulin response, in a subsample of non-diabetic individuals 20 years later. Dietary intake of beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol independently predicted type 2 diabetes during 7 years of follow-up. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Serum concentrations and dietary intakes of beta-carotene and alpha-tocopherol independently predicted insulin resistance and type 2 diabetes incidence during 27 years of follow-up in a community-based study of men. This result supports the importance of impaired antio

AIMS: Patients with Type 2 diabetes and coronary heart disease (CHD) are infrequently treated to risk factor targets in current guidelines. We aimed to examine risk factor management and control levels in a large sample of patients with Type 2 diabetes with CHD. METHODS: This was an observational study of 1612 patients with first incidence of CHD before 2002, and of 4570 patients with first incidence of CHD before 2005, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR). RESULTS: In patients with CHD 1-2 years before follow-up, the achievement of cardiovascular risk factor targets (follow-up 2002/follow-up 2005) was: HbA(1c) < 7%, 47%/54% (P < 0.01); blood pressure < or = 130/80 mmHg, 31%/40% (P < 0.001); total cholesterol < 4.5 mmol/l, 47%/60% (P < 0.001); and low-density lipoprotein-cholesterol < 2.5 mmol/l, 49%/65% (P < 0.001). Use of medication: antihypertensives, 90%/94% (P < 0.01); lipid-lowering drugs, 75%/86% (P < 0.001); and aspirin, 85%/89% (P < 0.05). A high prevalence of adverse lifestyle characteristics prevailed (2002/2005): overweight [body mass index (BMI) > or = 25 kg/m(2)], 86%/85%; obesity (BMI > or = 30 kg/m(2)), 41%/42%; smokers in age group < 65 years, 16-23%/18-19%; as well as waist circumference > or = 102 cm (men) or > or = 88 cm (women), 68% in 2005. CONCLUSIONS: Patients with a combination of Type 2 diabetes and CHD showed an increased use of lipid-lowering drugs over time, corresponding to improving blood lipid levels. A discrepancy existed between the prevalent use of antihypertensive drugs and the low proportion reaching blood pressure targets. Regretfully, a high prevalence of adverse lifestyle characteristics prevailed. Evidence-based therapy with professional lifestyle intervention and drugs seems urgent for improved quality of secondary prevention in these patients.

BACKGROUND: Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) powerfully reduces type 2 diabetes (T2DM) incidence. Proinsulin predicts development of T2DM. Adjustable gastric banding is associated with lowered proinsulin but after RYGBP information is scant. METHODS: Twenty-one non-diabetic morbidly obese patients who underwent RYGBP surgery were evaluated before (baseline), at 12 months (first follow-up), and at 42 months, range 36-50 (second follow-up), after surgery and compared to a control group, matched at baseline regarding fasting glucose, insulin, proinsulin, alanine aminotransferase (ALT), high-density lipoprotein (HDL) cholesterol, and body mass index (BMI). RESULTS: In the RYGBP group, fasting serum proinsulin concentrations were markedly lowered from 13.5 to 3.5 pmol/l at first follow-up and to 4.9 pmol/l at second follow-up (p < 0.001, respectively). Fasting insulin concentrations were reduced from 83.4 to 24.6 pmol/l at first follow-up (p < 0.001) and to 36.4 pmol/l at second follow-up (p < 0.01). ALT was lowered from 0.62 to 0.34 mukatal/l at first follow-up and continued to lower to 0.24 mukatal/l at second follow-up (p < 0.001, respectively). The further decrease between first and second follow-up was also significant (p = 0.002). HDL cholesterol increased from 1.16 to 1.45 mmol/l at the first follow-up and continued to increase at second follow-up to 1.58 mmol/l (p < 0.001, respectively). The further increase between first and second follow-up was also significant (p = 0.006). The differences between groups at first follow-up were significant for BMI, proinsulin, insulin, ALT, and HDL cholesterol (p = 0.04-0.001). CONCLUSION: RYGBP surgery in morbidly obese patients is not only characterized by markedly and sustained lowered BMI but also lowered concentrations of proinsulin, insulin, and ALT and increased HDL cholesterol.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with increased risk of cardiovascular disease. We investigated vasoreactivity in conduit and resistance arteries in morbidly obese subjects, and the effect of weight loss after gastric bypass surgery. METHODS: A total of 19 obese subjects (body mass index (BMI): 43.8+/-3.1 kg m(-2), 75% female, mean age 41 years) were investigated before surgery and after 1 and 12 months of surgery. Nineteen non-obese controls matched for age and gender were examined. Vasoreactivity was evaluated by ultrasound to measure flow-mediated dilation (FMD, evaluating a conduit vessel) and pulse-wave analysis with terbutaline provocation (change in reflectance index (RI), evaluating resistance vessels). RESULTS: Before surgery, the obese showed a low change in RI (18+/-12 vs 37+/-15% in controls, P=0.0001), but not significantly regarding FMD (7.9+/-6.4 vs 8.9+/-5.4% in controls). Surgery resulted in a weight loss of 9% at 1 month and 30% at 1 year. Change in RI markedly improved to 36+/-12% at 1 month (P=0.0001 vs baseline) and further to 44+/-11% at 1 year (P=0.014 vs 1 month). FMD did not change significantly. Heart rate and brachial artery diameter were reduced, with no significant change in blood pressure. The improvement in resistance vessel vasodilation, estimated as change in RI, was not correlated to changes in weight or measures of glucose and lipid metabolism. CONCLUSIONS: Obese patients showed impaired vasoreactivity in resistance arteries that was normalized already 1 month after gastric bypass surgery. The basis for this remarkable outcome, not significantly related to changes in body weight and metabolic variables, remains to be clarified.

OBJECTIVES: To analyze pulse pressure (PP) as a risk predictor for coronary heart disease (CHD), stroke and cardiovascular disease (CVD; CHD and/or stroke) in type 2 diabetic patients. METHODS: A total of 11,128 female and male type 2 diabetic patients with known baseline PP values and no CVD, aged 50-74 years, were followed for a mean duration of 5.6 years (1998-2003). A subgroup of 5521 patients with known mean PP values (mean values at baseline and at the end of the study) was also included. RESULTS: Hazard ratios (HRs) with 95% CI for fatal/nonfatal CHD with baseline or mean PP>or=75mmHg, compared to <75mmHg, were 1.23 (1.07-1.40; P=0.003) and 1.32 (1.07-1.62; P=0.009), respectively, after adjusting for mean blood pressure (MBP), age, gender, diabetes duration, HbA(1c), body mass index (BMI), lipid-reducing drugs, microalbuminuria > 20microg/min, antihypertensive drugs and hypoglycaemic treatment, using Cox regression analyses. Fully-adjusted respective HRs for stroke were 1.17 (0.98-1.39) and 1.21 (0.90-1.61) and, for CVD, 1.23 (1.10-1.37; P<0.001) and 1.28 (1.07-1.52; P=0.007). Fully-adjusted HRs for baseline PP increased per quartile and, CHD, stroke or CVD, were 1.09 (1.03-1.16; P=0.004), 1.14 (1.05-1.23; P=0.002) and 1.11 (1.05-1.17; P<0.001), respectively. The data suggest that, if a mean PP>or=75mmHg were to be avoided, then 15% and 17% of CHD and or CVD, cases, respectively, in such a cohort might be prevented after multivariable adjustments, with a further 10% of cases avoided if also adjusted for MBP and age. Increasing baseline MBP, age and microalbuminuria were independently and significantly associated (P<0.001) with increasing baseline or mean PP. CONCLUSION: Increased PP is a powerful independent risk predictor of CVD in type 2 diabetic patients, and lowering PP can lead to a marked reduction in risk., for the Swedish National Diabetes Register (NDR)

BACKGROUND: Few earlier studies have analysed smoking as a risk factor for myocardial infarction (MI) or stroke in type 2 diabetic patients. DESIGN AND METHODS: A longitudinal study involved 13 087 female and male patients with type 2 diabetes from the Swedish National Diabetes Register with no previous MI or stroke at baseline, aged 30-74 years, and with data available for all analysed variables, followed up for mean 5.7 years. RESULTS: Adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for smoking and first-incident fatal/nonfatal MI, stroke and total mortality were 1.7 [95% confidence interval (CI): 1.4-2.0; P<0.001], 1.3 (95% CI: 1.1-1.6; P = 0.006) and 1.8 (95% CI: 1.5-2.2; P<0.001), respectively, by Cox regression analysis, adjusted for age, sex, diabetes duration, hypoglycaemic treatment, haemoglobin A1c, blood pressure, body mass index, microalbuminuria, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs. Adjusted HR was higher for fatal MI, 2.1 (95% CI: 1.7-2.7; P<0.001), than for nonfatal MI, 1.4 (95% CI: 1.2-1.7; P<0.001). The highest HRs were observed in more frequently smoking (22%), middle-aged patients (age <60 years) for fatal/nonfatal MI, 2.3 (95% CI: 1.8-3.1; P<0.001) and for total mortality, 2.5 (95% CI: 1.6-3.8, P<0.001), whereas lower HRs were observed in older and less smoking patients. With predicted cessation of smoking in patients aged below 60 years, 24% (95% CI: 15-33%) of cases of fatal/nonfatal MI and 24% (11-37%) of cases of total mortality may have been prevented. CONCLUSION: The risk for MI and total mortality associated with smoking is high in type 2 diabetes, especially in more frequently smoking, middle-aged patients, and was higher for MI than for stroke, and also higher for fatal than for nonfatal events. Smoking cessation would strongly affect risk reduction.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Accumulating evidence suggests that diabetes increases the risk of dementia, but few studies have addressed possible mechanisms underlying this relationship. The aim of our study was to investigate the longitudinal association of glucose metabolism, insulin secretion and insulin action with the development of Alzheimer's disease and vascular dementia. METHODS: The Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men is an ongoing observational study in Sweden in which 1,125 men aged 71 years and free from dementia underwent an OGTT and a euglycaemic insulin clamp between 1990 and 1995. During a median follow-up of 12 years, 257 persons developed dementia or cognitive impairment, of whom 81 had Alzheimer's disease and 26 vascular dementia. Associations were analysed with the Cox proportional hazards method. RESULTS: Low early insulin response to oral glucose challenge, but not low insulin sensitivity, was associated with a higher risk of Alzheimer's disease (HR for 1 SD decrease 1.32; 95% CI 1.02, 1.69) after adjustment for diabetes, blood pressure, body mass index, cholesterol, smoking and educational level. Low insulin sensitivity was associated with a higher risk of vascular dementia (HR for 1 SD decrease 1.55; 95% CI 1.02, 2.35), but not after multiple adjustments. Diabetes increased the risk of any dementia and cognitive impairment by 63%. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: In this community-based study, low early insulin response was associated with increased risk of subsequent Alzheimer's disease, whereas low insulin sensitivity was not. Vascular dementia was not related to early insulin response. We suggest that glucometabolic disturbances are linked differentially to the pathogenesis of these two main dementia subtypes.

OBJECTIVE: Bimodality in the distribution of glucose has been used to define the cut point for the diagnosis of diabetes. Previous studies on bimodality have primarily been in populations with a high prevalence of type 2 diabetes, including one study in a white Caucasian population. All studies included participants with known diabetes. The aim of this study was to assess whether a bimodal structure is a general phenomenon in fasting plasma glucose (FPG) and 2-h plasma glucose that is useful for deriving a common cut point for diabetes in populations of different origin, both including and excluding known diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: The Evaluation of Screening and Early Detection Strategies for Type 2 Diabetes and Impaired Glucose Tolerance (DETECT-2) project is an international collaboration pooling surveys from all continents. These studies include surveys in which plasma glucose was measured during an oral glucose tolerance test; in total, 43 studies (135,383 participants) from 27 countries were included. A mixture of two normal distributions was fitted to plasma glucose levels, and a cut point for normal glycemia was estimated as their intersection. In populations with a biologically meaningful cut point, bimodality was tested for significance. RESULTS: Distributions of FPG and 2-h plasma glucose did not, in general, produce bimodal structures useful for deriving cut points for diabetes. When present, the cut points produced were inconsistent over geographical regions. CONCLUSIONS: Deriving cut points for normal glycemia from distributions of FPG and 2-h plasma glucose does not appear to be suitable for defining diagnostic cut points for diabetes., Totalt 51 medarbetare genom DETECT-2 Collaboration

AIM: To estimate hazard ratio (HR) of first incident fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular diseases (CVD) in female/male type 2 diabetic patients, with tight versus adverse control of HbA1c and blood pressure (BP) at baseline, age 30-70 years, no baseline CVD, followed for mean 5.7 years. METHODS: 2593 patients with tight control of HbA1c <7.5% and BP < or = 140/90 mmHg (median 6.5%/130/80 mmHg), and 2160 patients with adverse control 7.5-9.0%/141-190/91-110 mmHg (median 8.1%/155/85 mmHg). RESULTS: The hazard ratio (HR) for CVD with tight/adverse control was 0.67 (0.55-0.80; p<0.001), adjusting for age, sex, duration, hypoglycaemic treatment, smoking, BMI, lipid-lowering drugs, antihypertensive drugs, microalbuminuria. Adjusted HR for myocardial infarction, coronary heart disease, stroke and total mortality were 0.72 (0.56-0.92; p=0.01), 0.69 (0.55-0.86; p<0.001), 0.62 (0.45-0.84; p<0.001), 1.00 (0.72-1.39). The partial population-attributable risk percent for myocardial infarction, stroke and CVD was 23%, 33%, 29% if adverse HbA1c/BP control could be avoided, while 43%, 38%, 39% with overweight and smoking also avoided. Baseline lower BMI and absence of microalbuminuria were associated with tight control. CONCLUSION: Median difference of HbA1c/BP 1.6%/25/5 mmHg between tight and adverse control considerably reduced the risk of cardiovascular diseases. The findings call for a multi-factorial approach to improve HbA1c, BP, obesity, smoking, and microalbuminuria.

OBJECTIVE: The marked weight loss induced by Roux-en-Y gastric bypass (RYGBP) for morbid obesity is still incompletely understood. It has been suggested that, besides the restriction imposed by the surgical procedure, alterations in gut regulatory peptides signaling the brain might contribute. The aim of this study was to measure the putative satiety peptides peptide YY (PYY), glucagon-like peptide-1 (GLP-1), pancreatic polypeptide (PP) and pro-neurotensin (pro-NT) in response to fasting and feeding. DESIGN: The study is a cross-sectional study. After a prolonged overnight 14 h fast, a standardized mixed meal (574 kcal) was provided. Blood samples for peptide measurements were obtained before and after the meal. SUBJECTS: Forty subjects (20 males and females) were included; 10 morbidly obese; (mean age 41+/-7 years; mean BMI 44+/-3 kg/m(2)), 10 operated with RYGBP (age 45+/-5 years; BMI 35+/-6 kg/m(2)), 10 aged-matched lean (age 44+/-5 years; BMI 24+/-3 kg/m(2)) and 10 young lean subjects (age 26+/-2 years; BMI 23+/-2 kg/m(2)). MEASUREMENTS: Plasma concentrations of PYY, GLP-1, PP and pro-NT were obtained. RESULTS: PYY levels increased more in the RYGBP group than in the other groups after the test meal. GLP-1 levels rose in the RYGBP patients, with a small increase seen in the age-matched lean group. PP concentrations increased similarly in all groups postprandially. Pro-NT levels were highest in surgical patients, with no meal effect. CONCLUSION: RYGBP subjects displayed exaggerated PYY and GLP-1 responses to a standardized meal and demonstrated higher pro-NT levels both pre- and postprandially. The findings indicate that possibly the alterations in gut peptide secretion may promote weight loss after gastric bypass surgery.

Circulating proteins contribute to the pathogenesis of T2DM (Type 2 diabetes mellitus) in various ways. The aim of the present study was to investigate variations in plasma protein levels in subjects with T2DM and differences in beta-cell function, characterized by the EIR (early insulin response), and to compare these protein levels with those observed in individuals with NGT (normal glucose tolerance). Ten subjects with NGT+high EIR, ten with T2DM+high EIR, and ten with T2DM+low EIR were selected from the community-based ULSAM (Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men) cohort. Plasma protein profiling was performed using SELDI-TOF (surface-enhanced laser-desorption ionization-time-of-flight) MS. In total, nine plasma proteins differed between the three study groups (P<0.05, as determined by ANOVA). The levels of two forms of transthyretin, haemoglobin alpha-chain and haemoglobin beta-chain were decreased in plasma from subjects with T2DM compared with subjects with NGT, irrespective of the EIR of the subjects. Apolipoprotein H was decreased in plasma from individuals with T2DM+high EIR compared with subjects with NGT. Four additional unidentified plasma proteins also varied in different ways between the experimental groups. In conclusion, the proteins detected in the present study may be related to the development of beta-cell dysfunction.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: Genetic variants of upstream transcription factor 1 (USF1) have previously been associated with dyslipidaemias in family studies. Our aim was to further address the role of USF1 in metabolic syndrome and cardiovascular traits at the population level in a large Swedish male cohort (n=2,322) with multiple measurements for risk factors during 32 years of follow-up. METHODS: Participants, born in 1920-1924, were examined at 50, 60, 70 and 77 years of age. The follow-up period for cardiovascular events was 1970-2002. We genotyped three haplotype tagging polymorphisms capturing the major allelic variants of USF1. RESULTS: SNP rs2774279 was associated with the metabolic syndrome. The minor allele of rs2774279 was less common among individuals with metabolic syndrome than among healthy controls [p=0.0029 when metabolic syndrome was defined according to the National Cholesterol Education Program Adult Treatment Panel III; p=0.0073 when defined according to the International Diabetes Federation (IDF)]. The minor allele of rs2774279 was also associated with lower BMI, lower fasting glucose values and higher HDL-cholesterol concentrations in longitudinal analyses. With SNP rs2073658, a borderline association with metabolic syndrome was observed (p=0.036, IDF), the minor allele being the risk-increasing allele. The minor allele of rs2073658 also associated with higher total and LDL-cholesterol, apolipoprotein B-100 and lipoprotein(a) concentrations in longitudinal analyses. Importantly, these trends with respect to the allelic variants prevailed throughout the follow-up time of three decades. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that USF1 variants associate with the metabolic syndrome at population level and influence the cardiovascular risk factors throughout adulthood in a consistent, longitudinal manner.

BACKGROUND: Impaired acute insulin response (AIR) and insulin resistance (IR) are characteristics of Type 2 diabetes (T2DM). The aim was to develop risk models for T2DM and impaired fasting glucose (IFG), reflecting estimates both of AIR and IR, and of their interaction, as predictors over 20 years of follow-up. METHODS: We developed predictive models using hierarchic multiple regression analyses in a population-based cohort of 1227 men with normal fasting blood glucose at baseline (1970-73) and were reinvestigated after 10 and after 20 years. Using IVGTT-variables correlated either to AIR or to IR, separate models were developed. Combined models were also estimated from which prediction scores, representing individual risk, were calculated. RESULTS: In combined models, interaction between prediction scores reflecting AIR and IR predicted T2DM and IFG. Lowest tertile of AIR and the highest tertile of IR showed a relative risk (RR) of 15.3 (95%-CI=5.58-41.84) for T2DM compared to the contrast group (high AIR and low IR). Corresponding RR for IFG was 13.23 (95%-CI=6.53-26.78). C-statistic increased from 0.76 to 0.79 (p=0.018) for T2DM and from 0.77 to 0.80 for IFG (p=0.062) taking interaction into account. Main effects of lowest tertile of AIR and highest tertile of IR versus best were: RR for T2DM, 8.80 (95%-CI=4.25-18.21) and 6.31 (95%-CI=3.26-12.21); for IFG, 9.07, (95%-CI=5.38-15.29) and 4.49 (95%-CI=2.98-6-76). CONCLUSION: The interaction between low AIR and high IR revealed a high relative risk for T2DM or IFG reflecting the interplay between these factors over long time on worsening glucose tolerance and development of manifest disease.

Group Author(s): DECODE Study Group [Björn Zethelius participates in the collaborative study with The Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM)]

The least-squares estimator of the slope in a simple linear regression model is biased towards zero when the predictor is measured with random error. A corrected slope may be estimated by adding data from a reliability study, which comprises a subset of subjects from the main study. The precision of this corrected slope depends on the design of the reliability study and estimator choice.Previous work has assumed that the reliability study constitutes a random sample from the main study. A more efficient design is to use subjects with extreme values on their first measurement. Previously, we published a variance formula for the corrected slope, when the correction factor is the slope in the regression of the second measurement on the first. In this paper we show that both designs improve by maximum likelihood estimation (MLE). The precision gain is explained by the inclusion of data from all subjects for estimation of the predictor's variance and by the use of the second measurement for estimation of the covariance between response and predictor. The gain of MLE enhances with stronger true relationship between response and predictor and with lower precision in the predictor measurements. We present a real data example on the relationship between fasting insulin, a surrogate market, and true insulin sensitivity measured by a gold-standard euglycaemic insulin clamp, and simulations, where the behavior of profile-likelihood-based confidence intervals is examined. MLE was shown to be a robust estimator for non-normal distributions and efficient for small sample situations.

OBJECTIVE - Risk prediction models obtained in samples from the general population do mot perform well in type 2 diabetic patients. Recently, 5-year risk estimates were proposed as being more accurate than 10-year risk estimates. This study presents a diabetes-specific equation for estimation of the absolute 5-year risk of first incident fatal/nonfatal cardiovascular disease (CVD) in type 2 diabetic patients with the use of A1C and clinical characteristics.RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS - The study was based on 11,646 female and male patients, aged 18-70 years, from the Swedish National Diabetes Register with 1,482 first incident CVD events based on 58,342 person-years with mean follow-up) of 5.64 years.RESULTS - This risk equation incorporates A1C, as in the UK Prospective Diabetes Study risk engine, and several clinical characteristics: onset age of diabetes, diabetes duration, sex, BMI, smoking, systolic blood pressure, and antihypertensive and lipid-reducing drugs. All predictors included were associated with the Outcome (P < 0.0001, except for BMI P = 0.0016) with Cox regression analysis. Calibration was excellent when assessed by comparing observed and predicted risk. Discrimination was sufficient, with a receiver operator curve statistic of 0.70. Mean 5-year risk of CVD in all patients was 12.0 +/- 7.5%, whereas 54% of the patients had a 5-year risk >= 10%.CONCLUSIONS - This more simplified risk equation enables 5-year risk prediction of CVD based on easily available nonlaboratory predictors in clinical practice and A1C and was elaborated in a large observational study obtained from the normal patient population aged up to 70 years.

BACKGROUND: In recent randomised prospective studies, lifestyle intervention induced a weight loss of approximately 5%. OBJECTIVE: To describe and evaluate a 2-year on-going group intervention program in clinical practice in terms of weight loss and changes in metabolic risk factors, i.e. sagital abdominal diameter (SAD), triglycerides, fasting blood glucose and blood pressure. DESIGN: The aim of the intervention program was to motivate lifestyle changes concerning food intake and physical activity. The emphasis was on lifestyle modification, followed up at regular visits during 2 years. Subjects evaluated were 100 women with mean BMI 37.6 kg/m(2) and 26 men with mean BMI 36.5 kg/m(2). RESULTS: One hundred of 151 enrolled women and 26 of 36 men completed the program. Mean weight decreased by 3.8 kg in women (from 103.5 to 99.7, p<0.001) and 4.4 kg in men (from 116.5 to 112.1, p<0.05), respectively. SAD decreased by 5% (p=0.001 in women, p=0.01 in men), and triglycerides by 16% in women (p=0.01) and 24% in men (p=0.001), however systolic and diastolic blood pressure increased slightly but significantly. CONCLUSION: It is possible to perform a clinical lifestyle intervention program for outpatients on an ongoing basis with weight loss, lowered SAD and triglycerides, and a similar or lower dropout rate compared to clinical trials.

BACKGROUND: Multiple lines of research suggest that increased cystatin C activity in the brain protects against the development of Alzheimer disease (AD). METHODS: Serum cystatin C levels were analyzed at two examinations of the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men, a longitudinal, community-based study of elderly men (age 70 years, n = 1,153 and age 77 years, n = 761, a subset of the age 70 examination). Cox regressions were used to examine associations between serum cystatin C and incident AD. AD cases were identified by cognitive screening and comprehensive medical chart review in all subjects. RESULTS: On follow-up (median 11.3 years), 82 subjects developed AD. At age 70 years, lower cystatin C was associated with higher risk of AD independently of age, APOE4 genotype, glomerular filtration rate, diabetes, hypertension, stroke, cholesterol, body mass index, smoking, education level, and plasma amyloid-beta protein 40 and 42 levels (hazard ratio [HR] for lowest [<1.12 micromol/L] vs highest [>1.30 micromol/L] tertile = 2.67, 95% CI 1.22-5.83, p < 0.02). The results were similar at age 77 years (43 participants developed AD during follow-up). Furthermore, a 0.1-mumol/L decrease of cystatin C between ages 70 and 77 years was associated with a 29% higher risk of incident AD (HR 1.29, 95% CI 1.03-1.63, p < 0.03). CONCLUSIONS: Low levels of serum cystatin C precede clinically manifest Alzheimer disease (AD) in elderly men free of dementia at baseline and may be a marker of future risk of AD. These findings strengthen the evidence for a role for cystatin C in the development of clinical AD.

Aims/hypothesis: In a population-based cohort of elderly men with well-defined phenotypes and biochemical markers related to type 2 diabetes mellitus, we analysed two single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), rs7903146 and rs12255372, in the transcription factor 7-like 2 gene (TCF7L2), which are associated with an increased risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus. Materials and methods: The 1,142 subjects were from the population-based Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men cohort study (see http://www.pubcare.uu.se/ULSAM/ , last accessed in May 2007). Insulin sensitivity was assessed using a euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp; fasting intact and 32-33 split proinsulin, immunoreactive insulin and specific insulin were measured in plasma samples. The SNPs rs7903146 and rs12255372 were genotyped using a fluorescent homogeneous single base extension assay. The SNP genotypes were analysed against diabetes prevalence at age 70 using logistic regression and against quantitative biochemical measures using linear regression analysis. Results: We replicated the association with type 2 diabetes mellitus for both SNPs in this cohort of elderly males. The highest significant odds ratio (2.15, 95% CI 1.20-3.85) was found for SNP rs7903146. The odds ratio for SNP rs12255372 was 1.69 (95% CI 1.20-2.39). Both TCF7L2 SNPs were found to be significantly associated with plasma proinsulin when adjusting for insulin sensitivity, both in the whole cohort and when the diabetic subjects were excluded. Analysis for fasting plasma insulin or insulin sensitivity did not give significant results. Conclusions/interpretation: The association between the risk alleles of the two SNPs studied and levels of proinsulin in plasma, identified when adjusting for insulin sensitivity using euglycaemic-hyperinsulinaemic clamp measurements in this study, is an important novel finding.

Aims Hyperproinsulinaemia is associated with obesity and is a risk factor for Type 2 diabetes. We explored the dynamics of proinsulin and insulin and postprandial effects on glucose and lipids in subjects who had undergone gastric bypass (GBP) surgery compared with morbidly obese (MO) subjects and normal weight control subjects (NW). Methods Subjects free from diabetes were recruited: 10 previously MO subjects [body mass index (BMI) ± SD, 34.8 ± 6.2 kg/m2] who had undergone GBP surgery, 10 MO subjects (BMI 44 ± 3.1 kg/m2) and 12 NW control subjects (BMI 23.2 ± 2.4 kg/m2). After an overnight fast, a standard meal (2400 kJ) was ingested and glucose, proinsulin, insulin free fatty acids and triglycerides were determined up to 180 min. Results Fasting proinsulin was similar in the GBP group and NW control subjects, but threefold increased in MO subjects (P < 0.05). Postprandial AUC for glucose was similar in the three groups and AUC for proinsulin was high in MO, intermediate in the GBP group and lowest in NW control subjects (P for trend = 0.020). Postprandial proinsulin at 60 min was similar in the GBP group and MO subjects and twofold higher than in NW control subjects. Postprandial proinsulin at 180 min was normal in the GBP group, but fivefold increased in MO subjects (P = 0.008). Insulin increased rapidly at 30 min in the GBP group and was normal at 90 min, whereas insulin was still increased at 90-180 min in the MO subjects (P < 0.001). Conclusions MO subjects, free from diabetes, have elevated proinsulin concentrations in the fasting as well as the postprandial phase. After GBP surgery markedly lower fasting and postprandial proinsulin concentrations were observed, although BMI was higher compared with NW control subjects.

The least squares estimator of the slope in a simple linear regression model will be biased towards zero when the predictor is measured with random error, i.e. intra-individual variation or technical measurement error. A correction factor can be estimated from a reliability study where one replicate is available on a subset of subjects from the main study. Previous work in this field has assumed that the reliability study constitutes a random subsample from the main study.We propose that a more efficient design is to collect replicates for subjects with extreme values on their first measurement. A variance formula for this estimator of the correction factor is presented. The variance for the corrected estimated regression coefficient for the extreme selection technique is also derived and compared with random subsampling. Results show that variances for corrected regression coefficients can be markedly reduced with extreme selection. The variance gain can be estimated from the main study data. The results are illustrated using Monte Carlo simulations and an application on the relation between insulin sensitivity and fasting insulin using data from the population-based ULSAM study.In conclusion, an investigator faced with the planning of a reliability study may wish to consider an extreme selection design in order to improve precision at a given number of subjects or alternatively decrease the number of subjects at a given precision.

OBJECTIVES: To explore whether the predictive power of mid-life ECG abnormalities and conventional cardiovascular risk factors for future stroke change over a 30-year follow-up period, and whether a repeated examination improves their predictive power. DESIGN AND SETTING: Longitudinal population-based study. PARTICIPANTS: 2,322 men aged 50 years, with a follow-up period of 30 years. 1,221 subjects were re-examined at age 70 years MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: Risk for fatal and non-fatal stroke during three decades of follow-up. Investigations included resting ECG and traditional cardiovascular risk factors. RESULTS: When measured at age 50 years, ST segment depression and T wave abnormalities, together with ECG-left ventricular hypertrophy, were of importance only during the first 20 years, but regained importance when re-measured at age 70 years. Blood pressure was a significant predictor for stroke over all three decades of follow-up. In elderly people only, there is evidence that apolipoprotein A1 may protect from future stroke. CONCLUSION: Mid-life values for blood pressure and ECG abnormalities retain their predictive value over long follow-up periods even though they improved in predictive power when re-measured in elderly people. Despite lower prevalence, ECG abnormalities had greater impact at age 50 years than at age 70 years. By contrast, apolipoprotein A1 was protective for future stroke only at age 70 years.

OBJECTIVES: To find out if the presence of the metabolic syndrome increases the risk of subsequent total and cardiovascular mortality, taking into account established risk factors for cardiovascular disease. DESIGN: Prospective cohort study. SETTING: General population. PARTICIPANTS: A community based sample of 2322 men followed since 1970 for a maximum of 32.7 years, investigated at ages 50 and 70. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: The relations of the metabolic syndrome defined by the national cholesterol education programme (NCEP) of the US National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute or criteria of the World Health Organization (WHO) to subsequent total and cardiovascular mortality. RESULTS: When adding the metabolic syndrome to models with established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (smoking, diabetes, hypertension, and serum cholesterol) at age 50, presence of the metabolic syndrome as defined in the NCEP significantly predicted total and cardiovascular mortality (Cox proportional hazard ratios 1.36, 95% confidence interval 1.17 to 1.58; and 1.59, 1.29 to 1.95, respectively). The metabolic syndrome added prognostic information to that of the established risk factors for cardiovascular disease (likelihood ratio tests, P < 0.0001 for both outcomes). Similar results were obtained in a subsample without diabetes or manifest cardiovascular disease. CONCLUSIONS: In a large, community based sample of middle aged men, the presence of the metabolic syndrome according to the definition of the NCEP gave long term prognostic information regarding total and cardiovascular mortality if the status of established risk factors for cardiovascular disease was known. If confirmed this may indicate clinical value in diagnosing the metabolic syndrome.

BACKGROUND: Cardiac troponin I (cTnI), a standard for detection of myocardial damage, has recently been reported to predict acute myocardial infarction or death in patients with unstable coronary heart disease (CHD). Cardiac TnI concentrations increase with age in subjects free from clinical signs of CHD, suggesting silent myocardial damage. We investigated the association between cTnI and future CHD and mortality in a community-based cohort of men. METHODS AND RESULTS: A community-based study was conducted from August 1991 to May 1995 among 1203 men in Uppsala, Sweden, aged 70 years at baseline with a follow-up of up to 10.4 years with the use of registry data (National Board of Health and Welfare, Sweden). CHD was defined with the use of data taken from the Cause of Death Registry or from first-time hospitalization for CHD as recorded in the Hospital Discharge Registry. Cardiac TnI concentrations were measured blinded for outcome, in frozen baseline plasma samples, with the use of the AccuTnI from Beckman Coulter, Inc. Hazard ratios (HRs) from Cox proportional hazards are presented with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for a 1-SD increase. In men free from cardiovascular disease (CVD), cTnI predicted death (HR, 1.26; 95% CI, 1.08 to 1.46; P=0.003) or first CHD event (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.54; P=0.001) after adjustment for conventional risk factors: total and HDL cholesterol, plasma glucose, body mass index, smoking, and systolic blood pressure. CONCLUSIONS: In this first longitudinal report, cTnI was shown to predict death and first CHD event in men free from CVD at baseline, indicating the importance of silent cardiac damage in the development of CHD and mortality.

AIMS/HYPOTHESIS: The association between CHD and insulin sensitivity (Si) measured by the euglycaemic insulin clamp has not been examined previously. Earlier studies found a relationship between CHD and elevated plasma insulin, an analysis that may have been confounded by co-determination of proinsulin, which has evolved as a stronger predictor of CHD. The aim was to determine the longitudinal relationships between Si, intact proinsulin, 32-33 split proinsulin, specific insulin and subsequent CHD. METHODS: This was a population-based cohort study of 815 men in Uppsala, Sweden, aged 70 years at baseline with a follow-up of up to 10 years. Baseline insulin sensitivity was determined by euglycaemic insulin clamp. Fasting proinsulin, 32-33 split proinsulin and specific insulin concentrations were analysed using specific two-site immunometric assays. CHD was taken as diagnosed, if stated (in the event of death) on the Cause of Death Registry, or for subjects hospitalised for the first time with CHD, if CHD was recorded in the Hospital-Discharge Registry. The associations were analysed using Cox's proportional hazards, presented as hazard ratios (HRs) with their 95% CIs for a one-SD increase in the predictor. RESULTS: In multivariate analysis, Si (HR:0.80, CI:0.65-0.97) adjusted for serum cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, fasting plasma glucose, BMI and smoking predicted CHD. Intact proinsulin (HR:1.18, CI:1.01-1.38), adjusted as the model above, predicted CHD, whereas 32-33 split proinsulin (HR:1.13, CI:0.95-1.35) or specific insulin (HR:1.07, CI:0.89-1.30) did not. CONCLUSIONS/INTERPRETATION: Insulin resistance measured by the euglycaemic insulin clamp predicts subsequent CHD in elderly men. Proinsulin provides a better prediction of CHD than insulin.

OBJECTIVES: Our objectives were to explore novel metabolic risk factors for development of heart failure (HF). BACKGROUND: In the past decade, considerable knowledge has been gained from limited samples regarding novel risk factors for HF, but the importance of these in the general population is largely unexplored. METHODS: In a community-based prospective study of 2,321 middle-aged men free from HF and valvular disease at baseline, variables reflecting glucose and lipid metabolism and variables involved in oxidative processes were compared with established risk factors for HF (prior myocardial infarction, hypertension, diabetes, electrocardiographic left ventricular hypertrophy, smoking, obesity, and serum cholesterol) using Cox proportional hazards analyses. RESULTS: During a median follow-up time of 29 years, 259 subjects developed HF. In a multivariable Cox proportional hazards backward stepwise model, a 1-SD increase of fasting proinsulin (hazard ratio [HR] 1.38, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.15 to 1.66) and apolipoprotein B/A-I-ratio (HR 1.27, 95% CI 1.09 to 1.48) increased the risk, whereas a 1-SD increase in serum beta-carotene (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.94) decreased the risk of HF. These variables also remained significant when adjusting for acute myocardial infarction during follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: Novel variables reflecting insulin resistance and dyslipidemia, together with a low beta-carotene level, were found to predict HF independently of established risk factors. If confirmed, our observations could have large clinical implications, as they may offer new approaches in the prevention of HF.