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Background: Existing guidelines on screening children less than 5 years of age for developmental delay vary. In this systematic review, we synthesized the literature on the effectiveness and harms of screening for developmental delay in asymptomatic children aged 1-4 years. Methods: We searched MEDLINE, Embase and PsychINFO for relevant articles published to June 16, 2015. We identified studies that included children aged 1-4 years who were not at high risk of developmental delay, screened in a primary care setting. Randomized trials and controlled cohort studies were considered for benefits (cognitive, academic and functional outcomes); no restrictions on study design were imposed for the review of harms. Results: Two studies were included. One used the Ages and Stages Questionnaire II for screening and reported significantly more referrals to early intervention in the intervention groups than in the control group (relative risk [RR] 1.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.49-2.54, in the intervention group with office support and RR 1.71, 95% CI 1.30-2.25, in the intervention group without office support). The time to referral was 70% shorter in the intervention group with office support (rate ratio 0.30, 95% CI 0.19-0.48) and 64% shorter in the intervention group without office support (rate ratio 0.36, 95% CI 0.23-0.59), compared with the control group. The other study used the VroegTijdige Onderkenning Ontwikkelingsstoornissen Language Screening instrument to screen children aged 15 months at enrolment for language delay. It reported no differences between groups in academic performance outcomes at age 8 years. Interpretation: The evidence on screening for developmental delay in asymptomatic children aged 1-4 years is inconclusive. Further research with longer-term outcomes is needed to inform decisions about screening and screening intervals. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Over-exploitation and economic underperformance are widespread in the world's fisheries. Global climate change is further affecting the distribution of marine species, raising concern for the persistence of biodiversity and presenting additional challenges to fisheries management. However, few studies have attempted to extend bioclimatic projections to assess the socio-economic impacts of climate-induced range shifts. This study investigates the potential implications of changes in relative environmental suitability and fisheries catch potential on UK fisheries by linking species distribution modelling with cost-benefit analyses. We develop scenarios and apply a multimodel approach to explore the economic sensitivity of UK fisheries and key sources of uncertainty in the modelling procedure. We projected changes in maximum potential catch of key species and the resulting responses in terms of net present value ( NPV) over a 45-year period under scenarios of change in fuel price, discount rate and government subsidies. Results suggest that total maximum potential catch will decrease within the UK EEZ by 2050, resulting in a median decrease in NPV of 10%. This value decreases further when trends of fuel price change are extrapolated into the future, becoming negative when capacity-enhancing subsidies are removed. Despite the variation in predictions from alternative models and data input, the direction of change in NPV is robust. This study highlights key factors influencing future profitability of UK fisheries and the importance of enhancing adaptive capacity in UK fisheries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955-2003) and projected (2003-2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low-stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]