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Academic researchers, government agencies, industry groups, and individuals have produced forecasts at an unprecedented scale during the COVID-19 pandemic. To leverage these forecasts, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) partnered with an academic research lab at the University of Massachusetts Amherst to create the US COVID-19 Forecast Hub. Launched in April 2020, the Forecast Hub is a dataset with point and probabilistic forecasts of incident cases, incident hospitalizations, incident deaths, and cumulative deaths due to COVID-19 at county, state, and national, levels in the United States. Included forecasts represent a variety of modeling approaches, data sources, and assumptions regarding the spread of COVID-19. The goal of this dataset is to establish a standardized and comparable set of short-term forecasts from modeling teams. These data can be used to develop ensemble models, communicate forecasts to the public, create visualizations, compare models, and inform policies regarding COVID-19 mitigation. These open-source data are available via download from GitHub, through an online API, and through R packages.

We consider how to privately share the personalized privacy losses incurred by objective perturbation, using per-instance differential privacy (pDP). Standard differential privacy (DP) gives us a worst-case bound that might be orders of magnitude larger than the privacy loss to a particular individual relative to a fixed dataset. The pDP framework provides a more fine-grained analysis of the privacy guarantee to a target individual, but the per-instance privacy loss itself might be a function of sensitive data. In this paper, we analyze the per-instance privacy loss of releasing a private empirical risk minimizer learned via objective perturbation, and propose a group of methods to privately and accurately publish the pDP losses at little to no additional privacy cost., To appear at NeurIPS 2021

We study the offline reinforcement learning (offline RL) problem, where the goal is to learn a reward-maximizing policy in an unknown Markov Decision Process (MDP) using the data coming from a policy $\mu$. In particular, we consider the sample complexity problems of offline RL for finite-horizon MDPs. Prior works study this problem based on different data-coverage assumptions, and their learning guarantees are expressed by the covering coefficients which lack the explicit characterization of system quantities. In this work, we analyze the Adaptive Pessimistic Value Iteration (APVI) algorithm and derive the suboptimality upper bound that nearly matches \[ O\left(\sum_{h=1}^H\sum_{s_h,a_h}d^{\pi^\star}_h(s_h,a_h)\sqrt{\frac{\mathrm{Var}_{P_{s_h,a_h}}{(V^\star_{h+1}+r_h)}}{d^\mu_h(s_h,a_h)}}\sqrt{\frac{1}{n}}\right). \] In complementary, we also prove a per-instance information-theoretical lower bound under the weak assumption that $d^\mu_h(s_h,a_h)>0$ if $d^{\pi^\star}_h(s_h,a_h)>0$. Different from the previous minimax lower bounds, the per-instance lower bound (via local minimaxity) is a much stronger criterion as it applies to individual instances separately. Here $\pi^\star$ is a optimal policy, $\mu$ is the behavior policy and $d_h^\mu$ is the marginal state-action probability. We call the above equation the intrinsic offline reinforcement learning bound since it directly implies all the existing optimal results: minimax rate under uniform data-coverage assumption, horizon-free setting, single policy concentrability, and the tight problem-dependent results. Later, we extend the result to the assumption-free regime (where we make no assumption on $ \mu$) and obtain the assumption-free intrinsic bound. Due to its generic form, we believe the intrinsic bound could help illuminate what makes a specific problem hard and reveal the fundamental challenges in offline RL., Comment: NeurIPS, 2021

We consider the problem of the Zinkevich (2003)-style dynamic regret minimization in online learning with exp-concave losses. We show that whenever improper learning is allowed, a Strongly Adaptive online learner achieves the dynamic regret of $\tilde O^*(n^{1/3}C_n^{2/3} \vee 1)$ where $C_n$ is the total variation (a.k.a. path length) of the an arbitrary sequence of comparators that may not be known to the learner ahead of time. Achieving this rate was highly nontrivial even for squared losses in 1D where the best known upper bound was $O(\sqrt{nC_n} \vee \log n)$ (Yuan and Lamperski, 2019). Our new proof techniques make elegant use of the intricate structures of the primal and dual variables imposed by the KKT conditions and could be of independent interest. Finally, we apply our results to the classical statistical problem of locally adaptive non-parametric regression (Mammen, 1991; Donoho and Johnstone, 1998) and obtain a stronger and more flexible algorithm that do not require any statistical assumptions or any hyperparameter tuning., Added a post processing step to Lemma 5; Added Remark 6

We consider the problem of offline reinforcement learning (RL) -- a well-motivated setting of RL that aims at policy optimization using only historical data. Despite its wide applicability, theoretical understandings of offline RL, such as its optimal sample complexity, remain largely open even in basic settings such as \emph{tabular} Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). In this paper, we propose Off-Policy Double Variance Reduction (OPDVR), a new variance reduction based algorithm for offline RL. Our main result shows that OPDVR provably identifies an $\epsilon$-optimal policy with $\widetilde{O}(H^2/d_m\epsilon^2)$ episodes of offline data in the finite-horizon stationary transition setting, where $H$ is the horizon length and $d_m$ is the minimal marginal state-action distribution induced by the behavior policy. This improves over the best known upper bound by a factor of $H$. Moreover, we establish an information-theoretic lower bound of $\Omega(H^2/d_m\epsilon^2)$ which certifies that OPDVR is optimal up to logarithmic factors. Lastly, we show that OPDVR also achieves rate-optimal sample complexity under alternative settings such as the finite-horizon MDPs with non-stationary transitions and the infinite horizon MDPs with discounted rewards.

We consider the problem of estimating a function from $n$ noisy samples whose discrete Total Variation (TV) is bounded by $C_n$. We reveal a deep connection to the seemingly disparate problem of Strongly Adaptive online learning (Daniely et al, 2015) and provide an $O(n \log n)$ time algorithm that attains the near minimax optimal rate of $\tilde O (n^{1/3}C_n^{2/3})$ under squared error loss. The resulting algorithm runs online and optimally adapts to the unknown smoothness parameter $C_n$. This leads to a new and more versatile alternative to wavelets-based methods for (1) adaptively estimating TV bounded functions; (2) online forecasting of TV bounded trends in time series., To appear at AISTATS 2021

Differential privacy (DP) is a widely-accepted and widely-applied notion of privacy based on worst-case analysis. Often, DP classifies most mechanisms without external noise as non-private [Dwork et al., 2014], and external noises, such as Gaussian noise or Laplacian noise [Dwork et al., 2006], are introduced to improve privacy. In many real-world applications, however, adding external noise is undesirable and sometimes prohibited. For example, presidential elections often require a deterministic rule to be used [Liu et al., 2020], and small noises can lead to dramatic decreases in the prediction accuracy of deep neural networks, especially the underrepresented classes [Bagdasaryan et al., 2019]. In this paper, we propose a natural extension and relaxation of DP following the worst average-case idea behind the celebrated smoothed analysis [Spielman and Teng, 2004]. Our notion, the smoothed DP, can effectively measure the privacy leakage of mechanisms without external noises under realistic settings. We prove several strong properties of the smoothed DP, including composability, robustness to post-processing and etc. We proved that any discrete mechanism with sampling procedures is more private than what DP predicts. In comparison, many continuous mechanisms with sampling procedures are still non-private under smoothed DP. Experimentally, we first verified that the discrete sampling mechanisms are private in real-world elections. Then, we apply the smoothed DP notion on quantized gradient descent, which indicates some neural networks can be private without adding any extra noises. We believe that these results contribute to the theoretical foundation of realistic privacy measures beyond worst-case analysis., Comment: 10 Page main text + Appendix

This work studies the statistical limits of uniform convergence for offline policy evaluation (OPE) problems with model-based methods (for episodic MDP) and provides a unified framework towards optimal learning for several well-motivated offline tasks. Uniform OPE $\sup_\Pi|Q^\pi-\hat{Q}^\pi

Feature-based dynamic pricing is an increasingly popular model of setting prices for highly differentiated products with applications in digital marketing, online sales, real estate and so on. The problem was formally studied as an online learning problem [Javanmard & Nazerzadeh, 2019] where a seller needs to propose prices on the fly for a sequence of $T$ products based on their features $x$ while having a small regret relative to the best -- "omniscient" -- pricing strategy she could have come up with in hindsight. We revisit this problem and provide two algorithms (EMLP and ONSP) for stochastic and adversarial feature settings, respectively, and prove the optimal $O(d\log{T})$ regret bounds for both. In comparison, the best existing results are $O\left(\min\left\{\frac{1}{\lambda_{\min}^2}\log{T}, \sqrt{T}\right\}\right)$ and $O(T^{2/3})$ respectively, with $\lambda_{\min}$ being the smallest eigenvalue of $\mathbb{E}[xx^T]$ that could be arbitrarily close to $0$. We also prove an $\Omega(\sqrt{T})$ information-theoretic lower bound for a slightly more general setting, which demonstrates that "knowing-the-demand-curve" leads to an exponential improvement in feature-based dynamic pricing., Comment: 30 pages, 1 figures (with 2 sub-figures)

We study the problem of Online Convex Optimization (OCO) with memory, which allows loss functions to depend on past decisions and thus captures temporal effects of learning problems. In this paper, we introduce dynamic policy regret as the performance measure to design algorithms robust to non-stationary environments, which competes algorithms' decisions with a sequence of changing comparators. We propose a novel algorithm for OCO with memory that provably enjoys an optimal dynamic policy regret. The key technical challenge is how to control the switching cost, the cumulative movements of player's decisions, which is neatly addressed by a novel decomposition of dynamic policy regret and a careful design of meta-learner and base-learner that explicitly regularizes the switching cost. The results are further applied to tackle non-stationarity in online non-stochastic control (Agarwal et al., 2019), i.e., controlling a linear dynamical system with adversarial disturbance and convex cost functions. We derive a novel gradient-based controller with dynamic policy regret guarantees, which is the first controller provably competitive to a sequence of changing policies for online non-stochastic control.

We study a multivariate version of trend filtering, called Kronecker trend filtering or KTF, for the case in which the design points form a lattice in $d$ dimensions. KTF is a natural extension of univariate trend filtering (Steidl et al., 2006; Kim et al., 2009; Tibshirani, 2014), and is defined by minimizing a penalized least squares problem whose penalty term sums the absolute (higher-order) differences of the parameter to be estimated along each of the coordinate directions. The corresponding penalty operator can be written in terms of Kronecker products of univariate trend filtering penalty operators, hence the name Kronecker trend filtering. Equivalently, one can view KTF in terms of an $\ell_1$-penalized basis regression problem where the basis functions are tensor products of falling factorial functions, a piecewise polynomial (discrete spline) basis that underlies univariate trend filtering. This paper is a unification and extension of the results in Sadhanala et al. (2016, 2017). We develop a complete set of theoretical results that describe the behavior of $k^{\mathrm{th}}$ order Kronecker trend filtering in $d$ dimensions, for every $k \geq 0$ and $d \geq 1$. This reveals a number of interesting phenomena, including the dominance of KTF over linear smoothers in estimating heterogeneously smooth functions, and a phase transition at $d=2(k+1)$, a boundary past which (on the high dimension-to-smoothness side) linear smoothers fail to be consistent entirely. We also leverage recent results on discrete splines from Tibshirani (2020), in particular, discrete spline interpolation results that enable us to extend the KTF estimate to any off-lattice location in constant-time (independent of the size of the lattice $n$).

Characterizing the privacy degradation over compositions, i.e., privacy accounting, is a fundamental topic in differential privacy (DP) with many applications to differentially private machine learning and federated learning. We propose a unification of recent advances (Renyi DP, privacy profiles, $f$-DP and the PLD formalism) via the \emph{characteristic function} ($\phi$-function) of a certain \emph{dominating} privacy loss random variable. We show that our approach allows \emph{natural} adaptive composition like Renyi DP, provides \emph{exactly tight} privacy accounting like PLD, and can be (often \emph{losslessly}) converted to privacy profile and $f$-DP, thus providing $(\epsilon,\delta)$-DP guarantees and interpretable tradeoff functions. Algorithmically, we propose an \emph{analytical Fourier accountant} that represents the \emph{complex} logarithm of $\phi$-functions symbolically and uses Gaussian quadrature for numerical computation. On several popular DP mechanisms and their subsampled counterparts, we demonstrate the flexibility and tightness of our approach in theory and experiments.

Differentially Private Federated Learning (DPFL) is an emerging field with many applications. Gradient averaging based DPFL methods require costly communication rounds and hardly work with large-capacity models, due to the explicit dimension dependence in its added noise. In this work, inspired by knowledge transfer non-federated privacy learning from Papernot et al.(2017; 2018), we design two new DPFL schemes, by voting among the data labels returned from each local model, instead of averaging the gradients, which avoids the dimension dependence and significantly reduces the communication cost. Theoretically, by applying secure multi-party computation, we could exponentially amplify the (data-dependent) privacy guarantees when the margin of the voting scores are large. Extensive experiments show that our approaches significantly improve the privacy-utility trade-off over the state-of-the-arts in DPFL.

We consider the framework of non-stationary stochastic optimization [Besbes et al, 2015] with squared error losses and noisy gradient feedback where the dynamic regret of an online learner against a time varying comparator sequence is studied. Motivated from the theory of non-parametric regression, we introduce a new variational constraint that enforces the comparator sequence to belong to a discrete $k^{th}$ order Total Variation ball of radius $C_n$. This variational constraint models comparators that have piece-wise polynomial structure which has many relevant practical applications [Tibshirani, 2014]. By establishing connections to the theory of wavelet based non-parametric regression, we design a polynomial time algorithm that achieves the nearly optimal dynamic regret of $\tilde{O}(n^{\frac{1}{2k+3}}C_n^{\frac{2}{2k+3}})$. The proposed policy is adaptive to the unknown radius $C_n$. Further, we show that the same policy is minimax optimal for several other non-parametric families of interest.

The Private Aggregation of Teacher Ensembles (PATE) framework is one of the most promising recent approaches in differentially private learning. Existing theoretical analysis shows that PATE consistently learns any VC-classes in the realizable setting, but falls short in explaining its success in more general cases where the error rate of the optimal classifier is bounded away from zero. We fill in this gap by introducing the Tsybakov Noise Condition (TNC) and establish stronger and more interpretable learning bounds. These bounds provide new insights into when PATE works and improve over existing results even in the narrower realizable setting. We also investigate the compelling idea of using active learning for saving privacy budget, and empirical studies show the effectiveness of this new idea. The novel components in the proofs include a more refined analysis of the majority voting classifier - which could be of independent interest - and an observation that the synthetic "student" learning problem is nearly realizable by construction under the Tsybakov noise condition.