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The first partial derivatives of λ with respect to demographic parameters quantify linear responses of population growth to vital rate perturbations, but sensitivity itself is situational and can show non-linear responses. We use the second derivative of λ with respect to the demographic parameters to explore this type of responses in a population of a root hemiparasite (Castilleja tenuiflora). For plants growing with and without hosts, population transition matrices were built for the 2016–2018 period, and sensitivities and elasticities together with pure derivatives of the Hessian matrix were calculated, together with the second derivatives to survival and fecundity. We transformed the Hessian matrix to a logarithmic scale to avoid values with no biological meaning. Germination showed high sensitivity values, while permanence of individuals with dry aerial tissue that re-sprout had the highest elasticity. Negative values on the second derivative and on the logarithmic representation were obtained for germination with and without hosts in both years. Survival and fecundity have a similar behaviour in both conditions and periods, with negative values for survival for the first category and no negative values for fecundity. High negative values of the second derivative of the transition from seed to seedling indicate an evolutionary stable strategy and imply seeds are important to the permanence of C. tenuiflora population. A stochastic analysis of the second derivative of the transition from seed to seedling was performed with a Gamma distribution analysis, and showed negative values in all cases, corroborating this result. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Passive integrated transponder (PIT) tags are used widely to track the dispersal and model survival rates of animals. However, few studies have used this technology on small-bodied stream fishes. We collected baseline data on the apparent survival and detection probability of PIT-tagged stream fishes in the Great Plains and the arid southwestern United States over a 9-week or 16-week period. Cormack-Jolly-Seber open mark-recapture models were used to obtain parameter estimates for six minnows and one darter. Individuals were implanted with 8-mm PIT tags and recaptures were based on multi-pass wand antenna surveys. Overall, species had similarly high apparent survival ranging from 77 to 93% though the probability of detection differed among species. This was likely due to our ability to detect species with differing associations with pool or riffle habitats. Our estimates of survival and detection probabilities derived from multi-pass wand antenna surveys can serve as a baseline for researchers wanting to quantify population vital rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Climate warming directly influences the developmental and feeding rates of organisms. Changes in these rates are likely to have consequences for species interactions, particularly for organisms affected by stage- or size-dependent predation. However, because of differences in species-specific responses to warming, predicting the impact of warming on predator and prey densities can be difficult. We present a general model of stage-dependent predation with temperature-dependent vital rates to explore the effects of warming when predator and prey have different thermal optima. We found that warming generally favored the interactor with the higher thermal optimum. Part of this effect occurred due to the stage-dependent nature of the interaction and part due to thermal asymmetries. Interestingly, below the predator and prey thermal optima, warming caused prey densities to decline, even as increasing temperature improved prey performance. We also parameterize our model using values from a well-studied system, Arctia virginalis and Formica lasioides, in which the predator has a warmer optimum. Overall, our results provide a general framework for understanding stage- and temperature-dependent predator–prey interactions and illustrate that the thermal niche of both predator and prey is important to consider when predicting the effects of climate warming. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aimed to determine whether higher intakes of Na, added sugars and saturated fat are prospectively associated with all-cause mortality and CVD incidence and mortality in a diverse population. The nationally representative Canadian Community Health Survey-Nutrition 2004 was linked with the Canadian Vital Statistics – Death Database and the Discharge Abstract Database (2004–2011). Outcomes were all-cause mortality and CVD incidence and mortality. There were 1722 mortality cases within 115 566 person-years of follow-up (median (interquartile range) of 7·48 (7·22–7·70) years). There was no statistically significant association between Na density or energy from saturated fat and all-cause mortality or CVD events for all models investigated. The association of usual percentage of energy from added sugars and all-cause mortality was significant in the base model with participants consuming 11·47 % of energy from added sugars having 1·34 (95 % CI 1·01, 1·77) times higher risk of all-cause mortality compared with those consuming 4·17 % of energy from added sugars. Overall, our results did not find statistically significant associations between the three nutrients and risk of all-cause mortality or CVD events at the population level in Canada. Large-scale linked national nutrition datasets may not have the discrimination to identify prospective impacts of nutrients on health measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key Points: Question: How much is the economic burden of health inequities for disadvantaged racial and ethnic and education populations? Findings: In 2018, the economic burden of health inequities for racial and ethnic minority populations (American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Black, Latino, and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander populations) was $421 billion or $451 billion and the economic burden of health inequities for adults without a 4-year college degree was $940 billion or $978 billion, according to 2 data sources, respectively. Meaning: The economic burden of health inequities is unacceptably high and warrants investments in policies and interventions to promote health equity for racial and ethnic minorities and adults with less than a 4-year college degree. Importance: Health inequities exist for racial and ethnic minorities and persons with lower educational attainment due to differential exposure to economic, social, structural, and environmental health risks and limited access to health care. Objective: To estimate the economic burden of health inequities for racial and ethnic minority populations (American Indian and Alaska Native, Asian, Black, Latino, and Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander) and adults 25 years and older with less than a 4-year college degree in the US. Outcomes include the sum of excess medical care expenditures, lost labor market productivity, and the value of excess premature death (younger than 78 years) by race and ethnicity and the highest level of educational attainment compared with health equity goals. Evidence Review: Analysis of 2016-2019 data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) and state-level Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) and 2016-2018 mortality data from the National Vital Statistics System and 2018 IPUMS American Community Survey. There were 87 855 survey respondents to MEPS, 1 792 023 survey respondents to the BRFSS, and 8 416 203 death records from the National Vital Statistics System. Findings: In 2018, the estimated economic burden of racial and ethnic health inequities was $421 billion (using MEPS) or $451 billion (using BRFSS data) and the estimated burden of education-related health inequities was $940 billion (using MEPS) or $978 billion (using BRFSS). Most of the economic burden was attributable to the poor health of the Black population; however, the burden attributable to American Indian or Alaska Native and Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific Islander populations was disproportionately greater than their share of the population. Most of the education-related economic burden was incurred by adults with a high school diploma or General Educational Development equivalency credential. However, adults with less than a high school diploma accounted for a disproportionate share of the burden. Although they make up only 9% of the population, they bore 26% of the costs. Conclusions and Relevance: The economic burden of racial and ethnic and educational health inequities is unacceptably high. Federal, state, and local policy makers should continue to invest resources to develop research, policies, and practices to eliminate health inequities in the US. This study estimates the economic burden of health inequities for racial and ethnic minority populations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We present a retrospective analysis of Czech anti-covid governmental measures' effectiveness for an unusually long three years of observation. Numerous Czech government restrictive measures illustrate this analysis applied to three years of COVID-19 data from the first three COVID-19 cases detected on 1st March 2020 till March 2023. It illustrates the course from the dramatic combat of unknown illness to resignation to country-wide measures and placing COVID-19 into a category of common nuisances. Our analysis uses the derived adaptive recursive Bayesian stochastic multidimensional Covid model-based prediction of nine essential publicly available COVID-19 data series. The COVID-19 model enables us to differentiate between effective measures and solely nuisance or antagonistic provisions and their correct or wrong timing. Our COVID model allows us to predict vital covid statistics such as the number of hospitalized, deaths, or symptomatic individuals, which can serve for daily control of anti-covid measures and the necessary precautions and formulate recommendations to control future pandemics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Birth outcomes could have been affected by the COVID-19 pandemic through changes in access to prenatal services and other pathways. The aim of this study was to examine the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on fetal death, birth weight, gestational age, number of prenatal visits, and caesarean delivery in 2020 in Colombia. Methods: We conducted a secondary analysis of data on 3,140,010 pregnancies and 2,993,534 live births from population-based birth certificate and fetal death certificate records in Colombia between 2016 and 2020. Outcomes were compared separately for each month during 2020 with the same month in 2019 and pre-pandemic trends were examined in regression models controlling for maternal age, educational level, marital status, type of health insurance, place of residence (urban/rural), municipality of birth, and the number of pregnancies the mother has had before last pregnancy. Results: We found some evidence for a decline in miscarriage risk in some months after the pandemic start, while there was an apparent lagging increase in stillbirth risk, although not statistically significant after correction for multiple comparisons. Birth weight increased during the onset of the pandemic, a change that does not appear to be driven by pre-pandemic trends. Specifically, mean birth weight was higher in 2020 than 2019 for births in April through December by about 12 to 21 g (p < 0.01). There was also a lower risk of gestational age at/below 37 weeks in 2020 for two months following the pandemic (April, June), but a higher risk in October. Finally, there was a decline in prenatal visits in 2020 especially in June-October, but no evidence of a change in C-section delivery. Conclusions: The study findings suggest mixed early effects of the pandemic on perinatal outcomes and prenatal care utilization in Colombia. While there was a significant decline in prenatal visits, other factors may have had counter effects on perinatal health including an increase in birth weight on average. What is known: Perinatal outcomes could be affected by the COVID-19 pandemic through changes in access to prenatal services and other pathways. Evidence to date on this issue paints a mixed picture, with some studies reporting worse outcomes while others finding no changes or better outcomes. Little is known about the pandemic effects on perinatal outcomes in South American populations. What is new: Our study suggests an increase in mean birth weight and decline in miscarriage risk but also fewer prenatal visits in 2020 following the pandemic start in Colombia. There was a lower risk of gestational age at/below 37 weeks for two months in 2020 but overall little evidence for an effect on C-sections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Local vaccine safety data was evaluated through linkage of existing data sources. • No additional mortality risk was identified among recipients of COVID-19 vaccines. • This novel methodology could be readily used by other sub-national health agencies. In order to evaluate trends in death after COVID-19 vaccination we analyzed the timing of death relative to vaccination date and the causes of death in vaccinated Utahns in 2021. We matched people in the Utah immunization registry with documented COVID-19 vaccinations between December 18, 2020 and December 31, 2021 to Utah's 2021 vital statistics death records. Vaccinated people were categorized as having one, two, or ≥ three COVID-19 vaccine doses in a time-updated metric. We examined crude mortality rates by dosing groups in two-week intervals for all deaths, and by COVID-19 versus non-COVID-19 causes, within the 44 weeks following receipt of the most recent vaccine. We identified 2,072,908 individuals who received at least one dose of COVID-19 vaccine of whom 10,997 died in 2021. Only 17.5 % of the total vaccinated population was age 65+, while 80.9 % of those who died were over 65. In the four weeks following the first or second vaccination, all-cause mortality was low and then stabilized for the remainder of the evaluation period at a bi-weekly average of 33.0 and 39.0 deaths/100,000 people for one and two doses, respectively. Typical seasonal variation in death was observed among those with two doses. Small sample size precluded analysis of those with ≥ three doses, but trends were similar. Mortality rates in the 44 weeks following the COVID-19 vaccination did not show trends suggesting an increase in mortality related to COVID-19 vaccination, reinforcing the safety of COVID-19 vaccines. This represents an accessible approach for local evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantifying the cumulative effects of stressors on individuals and populations can inform the development of effective management and conservation strategies. We developed a Bayesian state–space model to assess the effects of multiple stressors on individual survival and reproduction. In the model, stressor effects on vital rates are mediated by changes in underlying health, allowing for the comparison of effect sizes while accounting for intrinsic factors that might affect an individual's vulnerability and resilience. We applied the model to a 50‐year dataset of sightings, calving events and stressor exposure of critically endangered North Atlantic right whales Eubalaena glacialis. The viability of this population is threatened by a complex set of stressors, including vessel strikes, entanglement in fishing gear and fluctuating prey availability. We estimated that blunt and deep vessel strike injuries and severe entanglement injuries had the largest effect on the health of exposed individuals, reinforcing the urgent need for mitigation measures. Prey abundance had a smaller but protracted effect on health across individuals, and estimated long‐term trends in survival and reproduction followed the trend of the prey index, highlighting that long‐term ecosystem‐based management strategies are also required. Our approach can be applied to quantify the effects of multiple stressors on any long‐lived species where suitable indicators of health and long‐term monitoring data are available. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Forensic fractographic features of bone reliably establish crack propagation in perimortem injuries. We investigated if similar fracture surface features characterize postmortem fractures. Experimentally induced peri‐ and postmortem fractures were used to assess if fractographic features vary as bone elasticity decreases during the postmortem interval (PMI). Thirty‐seven unembalmed, defleshed human femoral shafts from males and females aged 33–81 years were fractured at varying PMIs with a drop test frame using a three‐point bending setup and recorded with a high‐speed camera. Vital statistics, cause of death, PMI length, temperature, humidity, collagen percentage, water loss, fracture energy, and fractography scores were recorded for each sample. Results showed that fractographic features associated with perimortem fractures were expressed in PMIs up to 40,600 accumulated degree hours (ADH), or 60 warm weather days. Hackle was the most consistently expressed feature, occurring in all fractures regardless of ADH. The most variable characteristics were wake features (78.4%) and arrest ridges (70.3%). Collagen percentage did not correlate strongly with ADH (r = −0.04, p = 0.81); however, there was a strong significant correlation between ADH and water loss (r = 0.74, p < 0.001). Multinomial logistic regression showed no association between fractographic feature expression and ADH or collagen percentage. In conclusion, forensic fractographic features reliably determine initiation and directionality of crack propagation in experimentally induced PMIs up to 40,600 ADH, demonstrating the utility of this method into the recent postmortem interval. This expression of reliable fractographic features throughout the early PMI intimates these characteristics may not be useful standalone features for discerning peri‐ versus postmortem fractures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article describes a model for reaching underserved and vulnerable populations during public health emergencies such as COVID-19. Topics covered include the positive relations that were established through outreach by volunteers and through collaboration between community organizations described by the model and how the model has helped in fostering compliance with public health recommendations to improve health and well-being.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) uses a single Standard Occupational Classification (SOC) code (29-1051) that reflects a traditional definition of pharmacist job functions. Pharmacists working in nontraditional roles would be categorized under other SOC codes and not included in the BLS pharmacist count. Knowing the magnitude of how many working pharmacists may not be included in the BLS pharmacist count would help determine whether the gap is a minor margin of error or a significant problem affecting pharmacist workforce projections. The primary objective of this paper was to estimate the gap between the number of possibly working pharmacists and the BLS pharmacist count in 2019. A secondary objective was to examine BLS pharmacist counts in nontraditional roles and compare with published industry data. The annual number of individuals receiving their first professional pharmacy degree from 1965 to 2019 (55 graduation cohorts) was adjusted using the expected survival rate to 2019 by age and gender and workforce participation rate in 2019 for pharmacists for each cohort and then summed across cohorts. Data sources included Accreditation Council for Pharmacy Education, U.S. Vital Statistics reports, and American Consumer Survey. One-way and scenario-based sensitivity analyses were conducted to vary professional occupation mortality advantage and pharmacist workforce participation rate assumptions. Based on the number of individuals receiving their first professional pharmacy degree between 1965 and 2019 (442,409), there were 356,998 possibly working pharmacists in 2019. This value indicates 45,798 more pharmacists (15%) may have been working in 2019 than the 311,200 employee pharmacists reported by BLS for 2019. A gap of 8000 to 46,000 more working pharmacists (3%-15%) versus BLS persisted after sensitivity analyses. The magnitude of possibly working pharmacists not included in BLS counts warrants further consideration of current pharmacist job projections, methods, and metrics to improve future projections and monitoring of the pharmacist labor force. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract Background Despite the civil registration and vital statistics (CRVS) system in Nepal operating for several decades, it has not been used to produce routine mortality statistics. Instead, mortality statistics rely on irregular surveys and censuses that primarily focus on child mortality. To fill this knowledge gap, this study estimates levels and subnational differentials in mortality across all ages in Nepal, primarily using CRVS data adjusted for incompleteness. Methods We analyzed death registration data (offline or paper-based) and CRVS survey reported death data, estimating the true crude death rate (CDR) and number of deaths by sex and year for each province and ecological belt. The estimated true number of deaths for 2017 was used with an extension of the empirical completeness method to estimate the adult mortality (45q15) and life expectancy at birth by sex and subnational level. Plausibility of subnational mortality estimates was assessed against poverty head count rates. Results Adult mortality in Nepal for 2017 is estimated to be 159 per 1000 for males and 116 for females, while life expectancy was estimated as 69.7 years for males and 73.9 years for females. Subnationally, male adult mortality ranges from 129 per 1000 in Madhesh to 224 in Karnali and female adult mortality from 89 per 1000 in Province 1 to 159 in Sudurpashchim. Similarly, male life expectancy is between 64.9 years in Karnali and 71.8 years in Madhesh and female male life expectancy between 69.6 years in Sudurpashchim and 77.0 years in Province 1. Mountain ecological belt and Sudurpashchim and Karnali provinces have high mortality and high poverty levels, whereas Terai and Hill ecological belts and Province 1, Madhesh, and Bagmati and Gandaki provinces have low mortality and poverty levels. Conclusions This is the first use of CRVS system data in Nepal to estimate national and subnational mortality levels and differentials. The national results are plausible when compared with Global Burden of Disease and United Nations World Population Prospects estimates. Understanding of the reasons for inequalities in mortality in Nepal should focus on improving cause of death data and further strengthening CRVS data.

Abstract Background Several international studies have indicated an association between socioeconomic deprivation levels and adverse birth outcomes. In contrast, those investigating an association between socioeconomic status and low birth weight using nationwide data are limited in Japan. In this study, we investigated an association between municipal socioeconomic deprivation level and low birth weight by an ecological study. Methods Nationwide municipal-specific Vital Statistics data from 2013 to 2017 were used. We calculated the low birth weight rate and standardized incidence ratio (SIR) for low birth weight for each municipality and plotted them on a Japanese map. Furthermore, the correlation coefficient between them and the deprivation level were calculated. In addition, a spatial regression model including other municipal characteristics was used to investigate an association between low birth weight and the deprivation level. Results Municipalities with relatively high SIR for low birth weight were dispersed across all of Japan. The correlation coefficient between the socioeconomic deprivation level and low birth weight rate was 0.196 (p-value

Analysis of long‐term trends in abundance of animal populations provides insights into population dynamics. Population growth rates are the emergent interplay of inter alia fertility, survival, and dispersal. However, the density feedbacks operating on some vital rates ("component feedback") can be decoupled from density feedbacks on population growth rates estimated using abundance time series ("ensemble feedback"). Many of the mechanisms responsible for this decoupling are poorly understood, thereby questioning the validity of using logistic‐growth models versus vital rates to infer long‐term population trends. To examine which conditions lead to decoupling, we simulated age‐structured populations of long‐lived vertebrates experiencing component density feedbacks on survival. We then quantified how imposed stochasticity in survival rates, density‐independent mortality (catastrophes, harvest‐like removal of individuals) and variation in carrying capacity modified the ensemble feedback in abundance time series simulated from age‐structured populations. The statistical detection of ensemble density feedback from census data was largely unaffected by density‐independent processes. Long‐term population decline caused from density‐independent mortality was the main mechanism decoupling the strength of component versus ensemble density feedbacks. Our study supports the use of simple logistic‐growth models to capture long‐term population trends, mediated by changes in population abundance, when survival rates are stochastic, carrying capacity fluctuates, and populations experience moderate catastrophic mortality over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A method for analyzing long-term demographic data on density-dependent stage-structured populations in a stochastic environment is derived to facilitate comparison of populations and species with different life histories. We assume that a weighted sum of stage abundances, N , exerts density dependence on stage-specific vital rates of survival and reproduction and that N has a small or moderate coefficient of variation. The dynamics of N are approximated as a univariate stochastic process governed by three key parameters: the density-independent growth rate, the net density dependence, and environmental variance in the life history. We show how to estimate the relative weighs of stages in N and the key parameters. Life history evolution represents a stochastic maximization of a simple function of the key parameters. The long-term selection gradient on the life history can be expressed as a vector of sensitivities of this function with respect to density-independent, density-dependent, and stochastic components of the vital rates. To illustrate the method, we analyze 38 years of demographic data on a great tit population, estimating the key parameters, which accurately predict the observed mean, coefficient of variation, and fluctuation rate of N ; we also evaluate the long-term selection gradient on the life history. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many exogenous factors may influence demographic rates (i.e., births, deaths, immigration, emigration), particularly for migratory birds that must cope with variable weather and habitat throughout their range and annual cycle. In midcontinental grasslands, disturbance (e.g., fire and grazing) and precipitation influence variation in grassland structure and function, but we know little about when and why precipitation is associated with grassland species' vital rates. We related estimates of detection, survival, and emigration to a priori sets of precipitation metrics to test the putative alternative factors influencing movement and mortality in grasshopper sparrows (Ammodramus savannarum). This species is a migratory songbird that exhibits exceptionally high rates of within‐season and between‐season dispersal. Between 2013 and 2020, we captured and resighted grasshopper sparrows in northeastern Kansas, USA, compiling capture histories for 1,332 adult males. We tested predictions of climatic hypotheses explaining variation in survival and emigration throughout a grasshopper sparrow's annual cycle; both survival and emigration were associated with the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation precipitation index (ESPI). Survival was positively related with ESPI during winter, and temporary emigration was curvilinearly related to breeding season ESPI lagged 2 years, with the highest site fidelity associated with intermediate rainfall values. The relationship between rainfall and temporary emigration likely reflects the influence of weather over multiple years on vegetation structure with consequent effects on local demography. This study provides compelling support for the idea that grassland species respond to high interannual variability by adopting dispersal strategies unlike those of many well‐studied migrant birds. Furthermore, the results imply that the consequences of increasing climatic extremes may not be immediately apparent, with demographic consequences lasting for at least a few years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: The Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) plays a role in the causation of Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and multiple sclerosis (MS). A previous study showed that the time trends of mortality from Crohn's disease (CD) and MS shared striking similarities. It was hypothesized that such similarities would also involve the time trends of ulcerative colitis and HL. Aims: To compare the time trends of CD and UC with those of HL and MS in 6 different countries. Methods: Using the vital statistics of England, Canada, Netherlands, Scotland, Switzerland, and United States from 1951 to 2020, the time trends of mortality from these 4 diseases were compared. The time-dependent changes of death rates were subjected to a birth-cohort analysis. Results: Similar trends were observed in all 6 countries. UC mortality rose among generations born during the nineteenth century and decreased among all generations born subsequently during the twentieth century. CD mortality was similarly characterized by a birth-cohort pattern with a rise and fall that were shifted by 20–30 years towards more recent generations when compared to UC. The birth-cohort pattern of UC was matched by a similar pattern of HL, whereas the birth-cohort pattern of CD was matched by a similar pattern of MS. Conclusions: The similarities in the ubiquitous birth-cohort patterns of UC, CD, HL, and MS suggest that these 4 diseases share a common environmental risk factor. Such risk factor may be linked to EBV or its acquisition during an early period of a patient's lifetime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Source–sink patch dynamics occur when movement from sources stabilizes sinks by compensating for low local vital rates. The mechanisms underlying source–sink dynamics may be complicated in species that undergo transitions between discrete life stages, particularly when stages have overlapping habitat requirements and similar movement abilities. In these species, for example, the demographic effects of movement by one stage may augment or offset the effects of movement by another stage. We used a stream salamander system to investigate patch dynamics within this form of complex life history. Specifically, we tested the hypothesis that the salamander Gyrinophilus porphyriticus experiences source–sink dynamics in riffles and pools, the dominant geomorphic patch types in headwater streams. We estimated stage‐specific survival probabilities in riffles and pools and stage‐specific movement probabilities between the two patch types using 8 years of capture–recapture data on 4491 individuals, including premetamorphic larvae and postmetamorphic adults. We then incorporated survival and movement probabilities into a stage‐structured, two‐patch model to determine the demographic interactions between riffles and pools. Monthly survival probabilities of both stages were higher in pools than in riffles. Larvae were more likely to move from riffles to pools, but adults were more likely to move from pools to riffles, despite experiencing much lower survival in riffles. In simulations, eliminating interpatch movements by both stages indicated that riffles are sinks that rely on immigration from pools for stability. Allowing only larvae to move stabilized both patch types, but allowing only adults to move destabilized pools due to the demographic cost of adult emigration. These results indicated that larval movement not only stabilizes riffles, but also offsets the destabilizing effects of maladaptive adult movement. Similar patch dynamics may emerge in any structured population in which movement and local vital rates differ by age, size, or stage. Addressing these forms of internal demographic structure in patch dynamics analyses will help to refine and advance general understanding of spatial ecology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The center‐periphery hypothesis predicts a decline in population performance toward the periphery of a species' range, reflecting an alteration of environmental conditions at range periphery. However, the rare demographic tests of this hypothesis failed to disentangle the role of geography from that of ecological niche and are biased toward temperate regions. We hypothesized that, because species are expected to experience optimal abiotic conditions at their climatic niche center, (1) central populations will have better demographic growth, survival, and fertility than peripheral populations. As a result, (2) central populations are expected to have higher growth rates than peripheral populations. Peripheral populations are expected to decline, thus limiting species range expansion beyond these boundaries. Because peripheral populations are expected to be in harsh environmental conditions, (3) population growth rate will be more sensitive to perturbation of survival‐growth rather than fertility in peripheral populations. Finally, we hypothesized that (4) soils properties will drive the variations in population growth rates for narrowly distributed species for which small scale ecological factors could outweigh landscape level drivers. To test these hypotheses, we studied the demography of Thunbergia atacorensis (Acanthaceae), a range‐limited herb in West Africa. We collected three years of demographic data to parameterize an integral projection model (IPM) and estimated population level demographic statistics. Demographic vital rates and population growth rates did not change significantly with distance from geographic or climatic center, contrary to predictions. However, populations at the center of the geographic range were demographically more resilient to perturbation than those at the periphery. Soil nitrogen was the main driver of population growth rate variation. The relative influence of survival‐growth on population growth rates exceeded that of fertility at the geographic range center while we observed the opposite pattern for climatic niche. Our study highlights the importance of local scale processes in shaping the dynamics and distribution of range‐limited species. Our findings also suggest that the distinction between geographic distribution and climatic niche is important for a robust demographic test of the center‐periphery hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents preliminary findings from the Rhode Island Harm Reduction Surveillance System from January 2021 to December 2022, which can be used to inform prevention and outreach activities to address overdose epidemic. Results indicate the demographic characteristics of respondents, non-prescribed drug use and overdose experience among respondents, and harm reduction behaviors. It emphasis the need for education on risks related to polysubstance use and benefits of harm reduction.

Objectives: To assess changes in mental health and social risk factors in pregnant women in counties affected by Hurricane Michael (October 2018). Methods: Data from the Universal Perinatal Risk Screen (UPRS) and vital statistics for the state of Florida were obtained. Prenatal risk factors (unplanned pregnancy, mental health services, high stress, use of tobacco or alcohol, young children at home or with special needs, trouble paying bills) were compared in the year before and year after Hurricane Michael in affected counties (n = 18,887). Log-Poisson regression with robust variance was used for binary outcomes, adjusting for maternal age, race, BMI, and education. Results: A smaller proportion of pregnant women were screened in the months after the hurricane. No changes were seen in overall scores. The proportion referred was lower in the 1 month after Michael compared to that in 1 month before Michael (RR 0.78, 95% CI = 0.71, 0.86), but greater in the year after (RR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.04, 1.10). Most individual risk factors on the screener did not change significantly, except having an illness that required ongoing medical care was less common in the short term (3 months after vs. 3 months before: aRR = 0.76, 95% CI: 0.66, 0.87), and more common in the longer term (1 year after vs. 1 year before, aRR = 1.09, 95% CI: 1.02, 1.18). Birth certificate data suggested smoking during pregnancy was higher among women who experienced Michael during their pregnancies (aRR = 1.15, 95% CI: 1.01, 1.32). Discussion: Perinatal screening and referral declined in the short-term aftermath of Hurricane Michael. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adult mortality is often the most sensitive vital rate affecting at‐risk wildlife populations. Therefore, road ecology studies often focus on adult mortality despite the possibility for roads to be hazardous to juvenile individuals during natal dispersal. Failure to quantify concurrent variation in mortality risk and population sensitivity across demographic states can mislead the efforts to understand and mitigate the effects of population threats. To compare relative population impacts from road mortality among demographic classes, we weighted mortality observations by applying reproductive value analysis to quantify expected stage‐specific contributions to population growth. We demonstrate this approach for snapping turtles (Chelydra serpentina) observed on roads at two focal sites in Ontario, Canada, where we collected data for both live and dead individuals observed on roads. We estimated reproductive values using stage‐classified matrix models to compare relative population‐level impacts of adult and juvenile mortality. Reproductive value analysis is a tractable approach to assessing demographically variable effects for applications covering large spatial scales, nondiscrete populations, or where abundance data are lacking. For one site with long‐term life‐history data, we compared demographic frequency on roads to expected general population frequencies predicted by the matrix model. Our application of reproductive value is sex specific but, as juvenile snapping turtles lack external secondary sex characters, we estimated the sex ratio of road‐crossing juveniles after dissecting and sexing carcasses collected on roads at five sites across central Ontario, Canada. Juveniles were more abundant on roads than expected, suggesting a substantial dispersal contribution, and the road‐killed juvenile sex ratio approached 1:1. A higher proportion of juveniles were also found dead compared with adults, and cumulative juvenile mortality had similar population‐level importance as adult mortality. This suggests that the impact of roads needs to be considered across all life stages, even in wildlife species with slow life histories, such as snapping turtles, that are particularly sensitive to adult mortality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To estimate abundance, surveys of marine mammals often rely on samples of satellite‐tagged individuals to correct counts for the proportion of animals that are unavailable to be detected. However, naïve application of this correction relies on the key assumption that availability of the tagged sample resembles that of the population. Here, we show how matrix population models can be used to estimate stable age‐ and stage‐proportions, and how these can be used to adjust aerial survey correction factors so that they represent population‐level availability. We illustrate this procedure using data from ice‐associated seals in the Bering, Chukchi, and Beaufort Seas. After compiling life history data for bearded (Erignathus barbatus), ribbon (Histriophoca fasciata), ringed (Pusa hispida), and spotted seals (Phoca largha), we find that correction factors ignoring age‐sex composition can positively bias spotted seal abundance by an average of 13% and negatively bias ribbon seal abundance by an average of 5%. Note that we did not examine potential bias for bearded or ringed seals due to low sample sizes; as such, we urge caution in interpretation of abundance estimates for these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction Penile prosthesis implantation (PPI) is a treatment option recommended in clinical guidelines for erectile dysfunction (ED). However, a limited number of urologists perform PPI procedures in the United States. Aim To quantify the number of insured men with ED in the United States and project the number of potential candidates for PPI in 2022. Methods An Excel-based disease impact model was constructed using a top-down estimation approach. The starting US male population consisted of adult men from 2022 US Census data after exclusion of age-specific mortality rates from the National Vital Statistics Reports. Men with health insurance were included in the model based on insurance status data from the US Census database. ED prevalence and ED treatment rates were obtained from administrative claims data analyses—the Merative MarketScan Commercial Database (18-64 years) and the 5% Medicare Standard Analytical Files (≥65 years)—and literature-based estimates of patient-reported ED prevalence. Outcomes The number of men with ED in the United States and the number of potential candidates for PPI were estimated. Results By utilizing ED prevalence based on administrative claims, an estimated 8.3% of insured men (10,302,540 estimated men [8,882,548 aged 18-64 years and 1,419,992 aged ≥65 years]) had a diagnosis of ED and sought ED care, out of 124,318,519 eligible US men aged ≥18 years in 2022. An estimated 17.1% of men with an ED diagnosis claim could benefit from PPI in 2022 (1,759,248 men aged ≥18 years). Patient self-reported ED prevalence across all ages ranged from 5.1% to 70.2%. Scenario analyses applying the patient self-reported ED prevalence range revealed the number of men in the United States who could benefit from PPI could have been higher than 1.7 million if their ED symptoms were diagnosed by health care providers. Clinical Implications Most men with ED in the United States are undertreated, and many could benefit from PPI. Strengths and Limitations This analysis is a US population–level estimation. However, given this study utilized a variety of assumptions, the results may vary if different model assumptions are applied. Conclusions This disease impact model estimated that approximately 10.3 million men were diagnosed with ED by their health care providers and sought ED care in the United States in 2022. Of those, 1.7 million men could be PPI candidates and benefit from the treatment option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: To evaluate the association between gestational weight gain (GWG) and preterm birth and post-term birth. Methods: This longitudinal-based research studied singleton pregnant women from the National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (2019). Total GWG (kg) was converted to gestational age-standardized z scores. The z-scores of GWG were divided into four categories according to the quartile of GWG, and the quantile 2 interval was used as the reference for the analysis. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to investigate the association between GWG and preterm birth, post-term birth, and total adverse outcome (preterm birth + post-term birth). Subgroup analysis stratified by pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) was used to estimate associations between z-scores and outcomes. Results: Of the 3,100,122 women, preterm birth occurred in 9.45% (292,857) population, with post-term birth accounting for 4.54% (140,851). The results demonstrated that low GWG z-score [odds ratio (OR): 1.04, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.03 to 1.05, P < 0.001], and higher GWG z-scores (quantile 3: OR: 1.42, 95% CI: 1.41 to 1.44, P < 0.001; quantile 4: OR: 2.79, 95% CI: 2.76 to 2.82, P < 0.001) were positively associated with preterm birth. Low GWG z-score (OR: 1.18, 95% CI: 1.16 to 1.19, P < 0.001) was positively associated with an increased risk of post-term birth. However, higher GWG z-scores (quantile 3: OR: 0.84, 95% CI: 0.83 to 0.85, P < 0.001; quantile 4: 0.59, 95% CI: 0.58 to 0.60, P < 0.001) was associated with a decreased risk of post-term birth. In addition, low GWG z-score and higher GWG z-scores were related to total adverse outcome. A subgroup analysis demonstrated that pre-pregnancy BMI, low GWG z-score was associated with a decreased risk of preterm birth among BMI-obesity women (OR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.94 to 0.98, P < 0.001). Conclusion: Our result suggests that the management of GWG may be an important strategy to reduce the number of preterm birth and post-term birth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Survival information for Japanese patients with cancer is based only on survival status and the cause of death among these patients remains unclear. In this study, Osaka Cancer Registry data (1985–2014) and vital statistics data (1985–2016) were linked to create a database, permitting the extraction of data on the causes of death. In total, 522,566 subjects diagnosed with cancer between 1995 and 2011 were analyzed. Follow-up for vital status was conducted 5 and 10 years after cancer diagnosis. To evaluate the three causes of death (index cancer, non-index cancer, and non-cancer death), cause-specific hazard and cumulative incidence functions were estimated using a life table and Gray's methods. The number of deaths owing to any of the causes in the observation period (median: 3.51 years, mean: 4.90 years) was 394,146. The 5- and 10-year cancer-specific survival rate was 48.56% and 39.92%, respectively. Immediately after cancer onset, the hazard of index cancer death was high. The proportion of non-index cancer deaths was high in patients with mouth and pharynx cancers. The hazard of index cancer death remained constant for breast and liver cancers. In prostate, breast, and laryngeal cancers with good prognosis, the hazard of non-index cancer and non-cancer death constantly increased. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Individual plants can modify the microenvironment within their spatial neighborhood. However, the consequences of microenvironment modification for demography and species interactions remain unclear at the community scale. In a study of co‐occurring alpine plants, we 1) determined the extent of species‐specific microclimate modification by comparing temperature and soil moisture between vegetated and non‐vegetated microsites for several focal species. We 2) determined how vital rates (survival, growth, fecundity) of all species varied in response to aboveground and belowground vegetative overlap with inter‐ and intraspecific neighbors as proxies for microenvironment modification. For 1), surface temperatures were buffered (lower maximums and higher minimums) and soil moisture was higher below the canopies of most species compared to non‐vegetated areas. For 2), vegetative overlap predicted most vital rates, although the effect varied depending on whether aboveground or belowground overlap was considered. Vital rate response to microenvironment‐modification proxies (vegetative overlap) was also frequently context dependent with respect to plant size and macroclimate. Microenvironment modification and spatial overlapping of individuals are key drivers of demography and species interactions in this alpine community. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Animals experience seasonally changing conditions in temperate regions, thus population vital rates change seasonally. However, knowledge is lacking on patterns of seasonal correlation between growth and survival in sympatric ectotherms, and this knowledge gap limits our understanding of environmental change impacts on animal populations and communities. Here, we investigated sub‐seasonal (two‐month intervals) correlation between growth and survival in three stream fishes (bluehead chub Nocomis leptocephalus, creek chub Semotilus atromaculatus and mottled sculpin Cottus bairdii) in South Carolina, USA, via a mark–recapture survey over 28 months. We found that patterns of temporal correlation between the population vital rates differed among the sympatric species. Growth increased and survival decreased with water temperature in two eurythermal species, resulting in negative correlation between growth and survival. Growth peaked in sub‐seasons with an intermediate water temperature range in a third stenothermal species, while survival decreased with water temperature for this species too. Consequently, there was not significant negative or positive correlation between sub‐seasonal growth and survival in the stenothermal species. Body condition (weight at given length) decreased from May through November in all three species, providing a potential physiological explanation for why survival rates were lower during this period. Negative correlation among population vital rates stabilizes population size over time and buffers animal populations from environmental change because the vital rates are not affected simultaneously in the same direction, indicating some degree of resiliency in the face of climate changes in the two eurythermal species. However, such a demographic mechanism of resiliency could be maintained so long as climate warming does not exceed optimal growth temperature, above which negative correlation between growth and survival may no longer be maintained. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The North American beaver (Castor canadensis) has been an invasive species in the Tierra del Fuego archipelago since its intentional introduction in 1946. Its activities have led to such severe impacts on various environments that eradication has been tested as a management strategy. We assessed how vital rates (i.e., survivorship and reproduction) of the beavers were affected by time since invasion and population management history (such as lethal control). We constructed vertical life tables and compared survivorship, age‐specific survivorship, generation time, and life expectancy for different landscapes and management histories. As part of an eradication pilot program conducted between 2016–2018, 922 beavers were removed in seven pilot areas of the Isla Grande de Tierra del Fuego, Argentina. Areas in which beavers have resided longest since invasion, areas without hunting pressure, and areas previously cleared of beavers had higher survivorship and longer generation time and life expectancy. Areas where beaver management was historical (trapping performed by the provincial government) or focused (trapping by landowners) had shorter life expectancy and generation time and advanced age at first reproduction. Beavers showed demographic plasticity in relation to time since invasion (increasing survivorship, generation time, life expectancy, and cohort life expectancy consistent with populations close to carrying capacity in areas with low or null management). They also exhibited plasticity in response to management histories (advanced breeding onset, reduced survivorship, and life expectancy in managed areas—similar to managed populations in their native range). We present management implications from demographic perspective for a future eradication or control program of beavers. We also highlight the importance of landowners in shaping beaver demography for the future management of the species. Beaver demography reacts dynamically and rapidly to local removal, creating challenges for management based on the removal of beavers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: This study aimed to investigate the relationship between the distance and travel time from each municipality to the nearest delivery facilities in the other municipalities and the frequency of out‐of‐facility deliveries in Hokkaido. Methods: Vital statistics from 2016 to 2020 were used. For municipalities without delivery facilities, the distance and travel time from the town office of each municipality to the nearest delivery facility was measured using Google maps. Negative binomial regression with an offset term was used to calculate the relative risks (RRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) of out‐of‐facility delivery for distance (<30, 30–59, ≥60 km), and travel time by car (<30, 30–59, and ≥60 min) from the town office to the nearest delivery facility compared with the presence of delivery facilities. Results: The overall rate of out‐of‐facility deliveries in Hokkaido was 2.1‰; in municipalities with delivery facilities, 1.8‰, and in municipalities without delivery facilities, 3.1‰. The adjusted RRs (95% CIs) for out‐of‐facility deliveries were significantly higher in municipalities with less than 30 km and travel time of less than 30 min to delivery facilities, 2.63 (1.34–5.17) and 2.76 (1.36–5.58), respectively, compared to municipalities with delivery facilities. However, the adjusted RR of out‐of‐facility delivery for municipalities ≥30 km was higher, although the difference was not significant. Conclusions: Even in municipalities with a distance to delivery facilities of less than 30 km or travel time of less than 30 min, we should keep in mind the occurrence of out‐of‐facility deliveries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim: The 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake (GEJE) was a disaster leading to radiation exposure and psychological distress, particularly among pregnant women. However, it is not known how this affected the seasonal changes of pregnancy and childbirth. Therefore, this study investigated the impact of the GEJE in the Fukushima Prefecture on spontaneous and induced abortions with regard to seasonal variability. Methods: We used the data of vital statistics of live birth and stillbirth registry and the census survey of the Fukushima Maternity Care Facility. We calculated the spontaneous and induced abortion rate for 2011–2016 using two different methods (cross‐sectional and longitudinal). We calculated the quartiles and outliers to determine the impact and duration of the GEJE. Periodicity was investigated using spectral density analysis. The data were analyzed for the entire Fukushima Prefecture and by region. Results: The spontaneous abortion rate did not show specific changes after the GEJE. Contrarily, the monthly analysis in the cross‐sectional method, revealed specific increases in induced abortion rate during the year after the GEJE; in the longitudinal method, induced abortions increased among women who became pregnant within 1 year after the GEJE. Spontaneous abortion showed no specific periodicity, while induced abortion showed cycles of 6 and 12 months, with a particular increase in May each year. Conclusions: The spontaneous abortion rate was not affected by the GEJE. The changes in the induced abortion rate after the disaster may have overlapped with the timing of the increased periodicity, and cannot be attributed solely to the GEJE. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The deadly pandemic spread due to infections with the Coronavirus (COVID-19). It has a disproportionately large effect on healthcare workers and presents unique challenges for this vital sector of society. As a result, the pandemic has heightened public awareness of the dangers that nurses face around the world. This study aimed at exploring the lived experiences of five purposively selected nurses in a public hospital in the southern Philippines. The phenomenological inquiry brought out themes encompassing (1) putting up with occupational stress, (2) reconfiguring personal and social time, and (3) coping with the situation's gravity. These themes have been fleshed out to capture deeper meanings in the experiences of nurses during the health crisis in which they are deemed to be crucial front liners. The study concludes that while the nurses' quality of life has been impacted due to the unprecedented situation, they remain committed to their profession. The studythen implies that the government should be more responsive to the needs of the nurses and that support and assistance in their practice of the nursing profession amid the pandemic be provided substantially. Implications for hospital administrators and future researchers are also offered. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The novel fungal pathogen Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (chytrid) is one of the greatest threats to amphibians worldwide. Small increases in water salinity (up to ca. 4 ppt) have been shown to limit chytrid transmission between frogs, potentially providing a way to create environmental refugia to reduce its impact at a landscape scale. However, the effect of increasing water salinity on tadpoles, a life stage confined to water, is highly variable. Increased water salinity can lead to reduced size and altered growth patterns in some species, with flow-on effects to vital rates such as survival and reproduction. It is thus important to assess potential trade-offs caused by increasing salinity as a tool to mitigate chytrid in susceptible frogs. We conducted laboratory experiments to examine the effects of salinity on the survival and development of tadpoles of a threatened frog (Litoria aurea), previously demonstrated as a suitable candidate for trialling landscape manipulations to mitigate chytrid. We exposed tadpoles to salinity ranging from 1 to 6 ppt and measured survival, time to metamorphosis, body mass and locomotor performance of post-metamorphic frogs as a measure of fitness. Survival and time to metamorphosis did not differ between salinity treatments or controls reared in rainwater. Body mass was positively associated with increasing salinity in the first 14 days. Juvenile frogs from three salinity treatments also showed the same or better locomotor performance compared to rainwater controls, confirming that environmental salinity may influence life history traits in the larval stage, potentially as a hormetic response. Our research suggests that salt concentrations in the range previously shown to improve survival of frogs in the presence of chytrid are unlikely to impact larval development of our candidate threatened species. Our study lends support to the idea of manipulating salinity to create environmental refugia from chytrid for at least some salt-tolerant species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We used data from a five-year study at two focal breeding wetlands of a single Crawfish Frog (Rana areolata) population to demonstrate the relative importance and potential of tadpole survival as a target for population management. We concurrently estimated 11 vital rates in the field and used a females-only matrix projection model to estimate elasticities of demographic rates. We then simulated stochastic population dynamics at each wetland with and without immigration to estimate the intrinsic capacity for each focal breeding wetland to sustain a Crawfish Frog breeding population and the likelihood of breeding population persistence at each wetland. Elasticity of tadpole survival was second only to juvenile survival elasticity and 1.34-2.04 times greater than adult survival elasticity. Projections indicated that the Crawfish Frog population was not at risk of extinction but only one breeding site was capable of self-sustaining a breeding population. Because of low tadpole survival, the other breeding site was completely dependent on immigration to persist and was functioning as a population sink. Despite higher variability compared to terrestrial vital rates, larval survival did have a strong effect on population growth. Tadpole survival at the more productive breeding site was density dependent and likely related to wetland vegetation and predator and competitor abundance. Two additional findings were that annual survival of frogs following their first known breeding event was 48% lower compared to survival of frogs that had bred in two or more prior years, and adult temporary emigration from the breeding population was moderately high. Our study demonstrates the benefits of using population models that integrate density-dependent processes, temporary emigration from the breeding population, and state-specific adult survival, to identify larval habitats that function as population sinks and limit current population size and persistence probability. We contend that tadpole survival is an important and feasible habitat management target within broader conservation strategies for Crawfish Frogs and other amphibian species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the pandemic, telemedicine and telehealth interventions have been leading in maintaining the continuity of care independently of patients' physical location. However, the evidence available about the effectiveness of the telehealth approach for advanced cancer patients with chronic disease is limited. This interventional randomized pilot study aims to evaluate the acceptability of a daily telemonitoring of five vital parameters (heart rate, respiratory rate, blood oxygenation, blood pressure, and body temperature) using a medical device in advanced cancer patients with relevant cardiovascular and respiratory comorbidities assisted at home. The purpose of the current paper is to describe the design of the telemonitoring intervention in a home palliative and supportive care setting with the objective of optimizing the management of patients, improving both their quality of life and psychological status and the caregiver's perceived care burden. This study may improve scientific knowledge regarding the impact of telemonitoring. Moreover, this intervention could foster continuous healthcare delivery and closer communication among the physician, patient and family, enabling the physician to have an updated overview of the clinical trajectory of the disease. Finally, the study may help family caregivers to maintain their habits and professional position and to limit financial consequences. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Competition is among the most important factors regulating plant population and community dynamics, but we know little about how different vital rates respond to competition and jointly determine population growth and species coexistence. We conducted a field experiment and parameterised integral projection models to model the population growth of 14 herbaceous plant species in the absence and presence of neighbours across an elevation gradient (284 interspecific pairs). We found that suppressed individual growth and seedling establishment contributed the most to competition‐induced declines in population growth, although vital rate contributions varied greatly between species and with elevation. In contrast, size‐specific survival and flowering probability and seed production were frequently enhanced under competition. These compensatory vital rate responses were nearly ubiquitous (occurred in 92% of species pairs) and significantly reduced niche overlap and stabilised coexistence. Our study highlights the importance of demographic processes for regulating population and community dynamics, which has often been neglected by classic coexistence theories. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The fate of natural populations is mediated by complex interactions among vital rates, which can vary within and among years. Although the effects of random, among‐year variation in vital rates have been studied extensively, relatively little is known about how periodic, nonrandom variation in vital rates affects populations. This knowledge gap is potentially alarming as global environmental change is projected to alter common periodic variations, such as seasonality. We investigated the effects of changes in vital‐rate periodicity on populations of three species representing different forms of adaptation to periodic environments: the yellow‐bellied marmot (Marmota flaviventer), adapted to strong seasonality in snowfall; the meerkat (Suricata suricatta), adapted to inter‐annual stochasticity as well as seasonal patterns in rainfall; and the dewy pine (Drosophyllum lusitanicum), adapted to fire regimes and periodic post‐fire habitat succession. To assess how changes in periodicity affect population growth, we parameterized periodic matrix population models and projected population dynamics under different scenarios of perturbations in the strength of vital‐rate periodicity. We assessed the effects of such perturbations on various metrics describing population dynamics, including the stochastic growth rate, log λS. Overall, perturbing the strength of periodicity had strong effects on population dynamics in all three study species. For the marmots, log λS decreased with increased seasonal differences in adult survival. For the meerkats, density dependence buffered the effects of perturbations of periodicity on log λS. Finally, dewy pines were negatively affected by changes in natural post‐fire succession under stochastic or periodic fire regimes with fires occurring every 30 years, but were buffered by density dependence from such changes under presumed more frequent fires or large‐scale disturbances. We show that changes in the strength of vital‐rate periodicity can have diverse but strong effects on population dynamics across different life histories. Populations buffered from inter‐annual vital‐rate variation can be affected substantially by changes in environmentally driven vital‐rate periodic patterns; however, the effects of such changes can be masked in analyses focusing on inter‐annual variation. As most ecosystems are affected by periodic variations in the environment such as seasonality, assessing their contributions to population viability for future global‐change research is crucial. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: In this study, we present a compartmental population model for Cx. pipiens/restuans, incorporating mosquito life cycle parameters, as well as temperature, precipitation, and geographic latitude. The model was validated against mosquito count data from Cook County (IL, USA). The model fitted the observation data and was able to reproduce between-year differences in the abundance of the Cx. pipiens/restuans mosquitoes, as well as the different seasonal trends. Mosquitoes of the genus Culex are important vectors of a variety of arthropod-borne viral infections. In most of the northern parts of the USA, Cx. pipiens/restuans is the predominant representative of this genus. As vectors, they play a key role in the spreading of arboviruses and thus, knowledge of the population dynamic of mosquitoes is important to understand the disease ecology of these viruses. As poikilotherm animals, the vital rates of mosquitoes are highly dependent on ambient temperature, and also on precipitation. We present a compartmental model for the population dynamics of Cx. pipiens/restuans. The model is driven by temperature, precipitation, and daytime length (which can be calculated from the geographic latitude). For model evaluation, we used long-term mosquito capture data, which were averaged from multiple sites in Cook County, Illinois. The model fitted the observation data and was able to reproduce between-year differences in the abundance of the Cx. pipiens/restuans mosquitoes, as well as the different seasonal trends. Using this model, we evaluated the effectiveness of targeting different vital rates for mosquito control strategies. The final model is able to reproduce the weekly mean Cx. pipiens/restuans abundance for Cook County with a high accuracy, and over a long time period of 20 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating demographic changes in a population requires the measurement of some minimal combination of several vital rates, including the flux of individuals into a population, the population growth rate, individual growth rates and mortality rates. For larval fishes, the ratio of instantaneous mortality to growth (i.e., their 'recruitment potential') has been used to make inferences of cohort trajectory where measures of population growth rates are not attainable. Attaining estimates of mortality and growth is an arduous task, and use of the recruitment potential metric has been limited. Here, we relate size spectra of the broader plankton community to the recruitment potential of simultaneously sampled larval Pacific sardines (Sardinops sagax), from three voyages off eastern Australia. As the size structure of a population is determined by the ratio of mortality to growth, and there is remarkable consistency in size spectra across ecosystems, we test the hypothesis that the recruitment potential of larval fish is reflected in community‐level measures of plankton size spectra. Contrary to expectations, results from this study demonstrate a negative relationship between the slope of the plankton size spectra and the recruitment potential of larval Pacific sardine. However, we also demonstrate several other stronger relationships between recruitment potential and physical oceanographic parameters. Together, results suggest plankton size spectra are unlikely to reflect recruitment potential directly. Incorporating some size‐based aspects of the plankton community into a broader modelling framework with a range of oceanographic parameters could further our ability to determine how larval success varies across a seascape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Actuarial senescence, the decline of survival with age, is well documented in the wild. Rates of senescence vary widely between taxa, to some extent also between sexes, with the fastest life histories showing the highest rates of senescence. Few studies have investigated differences in senescence among populations of the same species, although such variation is expected from population‐level differences in environmental conditions, leading to differences in vital rates and thus life histories.We predict that, within species, populations differing in productivity (suggesting different paces of life) should experience different rates of senescence, but with little or no sexual difference in senescence within populations of monogamous, monomorphic species where the sexes share breeding duties.We compared rates of actuarial senescence among three contrasting populations of the Atlantic puffin Fratercula arctica. The dataset comprised 31 years (1990–2020) of parallel capture–mark–recapture data from three breeding colonies, Isle of May (North Sea), Røst (Norwegian Sea) and Hornøya (Barents Sea), showing contrasting productivities (i.e. annual breeding success) and population trends. We used time elapsed since first capture as a proxy for bird age, and productivity and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index (wNAO) as proxies for the environmental conditions experienced by the populations within and outside the breeding season, respectively.In accordance with our predictions, we found that senescence rates differed among the study populations, with no evidence for sexual differences. There was no evidence for an effect of wNAO, but the population with the lowest productivity, Røst, showed the lowest rate of senescence. As a consequence, the negative effect of senescence on the population growth rate (λ) was up to 3–5 times smaller on Røst (Δλ = −0.009) than on the two other colonies.Our findings suggest that environmentally induced differences in senescence rates among populations of a species should be accounted for when predicting effects of climate variation and change on species persistence. There is thus a need for more detailed information on how both actuarial and reproductive senescence influence vital rates of populations of the same species, calling for large‐scale comparative studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variations in the reproductive and survival abilities of individuals within a population are ubiquitous in nature, key to individual fitness, and affect population dynamics, which leads to strong interest in understanding causes and consequences of vital‐rate variation. For long‐lived species, long‐term studies of large samples of known‐age individuals are ideal for evaluating vital‐rate variation.A population of Weddell seals in Erebus Bay, Antarctica, has been studied each Austral spring since the 1960s. Since 1982, all newborns have been tagged each year and multiple capture‐mark‐recapture (CMR) surveys have been conducted annually.Over the past 20 years, a series of analyses have built on results of earlier research by taking advantage of steady improvements in the project's long‐term CMR data and available analytical methods. Here, I summarize progress made on four major topics related to variation in age‐specific vital rates for females: early‐life survival and age at first reproduction, costs of reproduction, demographic buffering, and demographic senescence.Multistate modelling found that age at first reproduction varies widely (4–14 years of age) and identified contrasting influences of maternal age on survival and recruitment rates of offspring. Subsequent analyses of data for females after recruitment revealed costs of reproduction to both survival and future reproduction and provided strong evidence of demographic buffering. Recent results indicated that important levels of among‐individual variation exist in vital rates and revealed contrasting patterns for senescence in reproduction and survival.Sources of variation in vital rates include age, reproductive state, year, and individual. The combination of luck and individual quality results in strong variation in individual fitness outcomes: ~80% of females born in the population produce no offspring, and the remaining 20% vary strongly in lifetime reproductive output (range: 1–23 pups).Further research is needed to identify the specific environmental conditions that lead to annual variation in vital rates and to better understand the origins of individual heterogeneity. Work is also needed to better quantify the relative roles of luck, maternal effects, and environmental conditions on variation in vital rates and to learn the importance of such variation to demographic performance of offspring and on overall population dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I present a simulation model on vital statistics, absolute abundance (N, total number of individuals that ever lived) and preservation rate (p, minimum number of fossils known divided by N) of Tyrannosaurus rex. It is based on a published age‐structured population model that assumes a reptile or bird‐like reproduction for T. rex to estimate its age‐specific survival rates. My model applies input variables and equations from a recently published model on N and p. This model yielded 2.5 billion T. rex individuals (N) and one fossil per 80 million individuals (p). The average N values calculated by my model were at minimum 27.6% and p values at maximum 361.5% that of a previous model and uncertainties in all output variables were always larger in my model. The equation on output variable 'population density' introduced the largest uncertainty to N and p. The output variable 'generation time' differed the most between models, but for N and p, the huge size of the input area modelled and geological longevity minimized this difference. Unlike my model, the generation time as well as life expectancies, gross reproduction rates, and reproductive values of individuals calculated from the previous model all strongly contradicted our current understanding of the biology of T. rex and of other theropods. Their values also disagreed with those of large extant reptiles, birds and mammals. All of these shortcomings of the previous model favour the assessment of individual and population characteristics of T. rex and of other extinct species using my model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global change encompasses many co‐occurring anthropogenic drivers, which can act synergistically or antagonistically on ecological systems. Predicting how different global change drivers simultaneously contribute to observed biodiversity change is a key challenge for ecology and conservation. However, we lack the mechanistic understanding of how multiple global change drivers influence the vital rates of multiple interacting species. We propose that reaction norms, the relationships between a driver and vital rates like growth, mortality, and consumption, provide insights to the underlying mechanisms of community responses to multiple drivers. Understanding how multiple drivers interact to affect demographic rates using a reaction‐norm perspective can improve our ability to make predictions of interactions at higher levels of organization—that is, community and food web. Building on the framework of consumer–resource interactions and widely studied thermal performance curves, we illustrate how joint driver impacts can be scaled up from the population to the community level. A simple proof‐of‐concept model demonstrates how reaction norms of vital rates predict the prevalence of driver interactions at the community level. A literature search suggests that our proposed approach is not yet used in multiple driver research. We outline how realistic response surfaces (i.e., multidimensional reaction norms) can be inferred by parametric and nonparametric approaches. Response surfaces have the potential to strengthen our understanding of how multiple drivers affect communities as well as improve our ability to predict when interactive effects emerge, two of the major challenges of ecology today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Matrix population models are frequently built and used by ecologists to analyse demography and elucidate the processes driving population growth or decline. Life Table Response Experiments (LTREs) are comparative analyses that decompose the realized difference or variance in population growth rate (λ) into contributions from the differences or variances in the vital rates (i.e. the matrix elements). Since their introduction, LTREs have been based on approximations and have not included biologically relevant interaction terms.We used the functional analysis of variance framework to derive an exact LTRE method, which calculates the exact response of λ to the difference or variance in a given vital rate, for all interactions among vital rates—including higher‐order interactions neglected by the classical methods. We used the publicly available COMADRE and COMPADRE databases to perform a meta‐analysis comparing the results of exact and classical LTRE methods. We analysed 186 and 1487 LTREs for animal and plant matrix population models, respectively.We found that the classical methods often had small errors, but that very high errors were possible. Overall error was related to the difference or variance in the matrices being analysed, consistent with the Taylor series basis of the classical method. Neglected interaction terms accounted for most of the errors in fixed design LTRE, highlighting the importance of two‐way interaction terms. For random design LTRE, errors in the contribution terms present in both classical and exact methods were comparable to errors due to neglected interaction terms. In most examples we analysed, evaluating exact contributions up to three‐way interaction terms was sufficient for interpreting 90% or more of the difference or variance in λ.Relative error, previously used to evaluate the accuracy of classical LTREs, is not a reliable metric of how closely the classical and exact methods agree. Error compensation between estimated contribution terms and neglected contribution terms can lead to low relative error despite faulty biological interpretation. Trade‐offs or negative covariances among matrix elements can lead to high relative error despite accurate biological interpretation. Exact LTRE provides reliable and accurate biological interpretation, and the R package exactLTRE makes the exact method accessible to ecologists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

I combine personnel records with vital statistics for 1910 to 1925 to study how bureaucratic representation affected mortality in 1,271 Indian towns during the 1918 influenza pandemic. Exploiting the rotation of senior colonial officers across districts and a cross-border comparison, towns headed by Indian (as opposed to British) district officers experienced 15 percentage points lower deaths. The lower mortality effects extended beyond the urban areas and coincided with greater responsiveness in relief provision. Bureaucratic representation can thus be a powerful way to increase state responsiveness during times of crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This work examines a schooling expansion in Romania that increased educational attainment for successive cohorts born between 1945 and 1950. We use a difference-in-regression discontinuities (D-RD) design based on school entry cutoff dates to estimate impacts on mortality using 1994–2016 Vital Statistics data, self-reported health in the 2011 Romanian Census, and hospitalizations from 1997–2017 in-patient registers. We find that the schooling reform led to significant increases in years of schooling but did not affect mortality, hospitalizations, or self-reported health. These estimates provide new evidence for the causal effect of education on mortality and health outside of high-income countries and at lower margins of educational attainment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]