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Background: Limited by data availability, most disease maps in the literature are for relatively large and subjectively-defined areal units, which are subject to problems associated with polygon maps. High resolution maps based on objective spatial units are needed to more precisely detect associations between disease and environmental factors. Method: We propose to use a Restricted and Controlled Monte Carlo (RCMC) process to disaggregate polygon-level location data to achieve mapping aggregate data at an approximated individual level. RCMC assigns a random point location to a polygon-level location, in which the randomization is restricted by the polygon and controlled by the background (e.g., population at risk). RCMC allows analytical processes designed for individual data to be applied, and generates high-resolution raster maps. Results: We applied RCMC to the town-level birth defect data for New Hampshire and generated raster maps at the resolution of 100 m. Besides the map of significance of birth defect risk represented by p-value, the output also includes a map of spatial uncertainty and a map of hot spots. Conclusions: RCMC is an effective method to disaggregate aggregate data. An RCMC-based disease mapping maximizes the use of available spatial information, and explicitly estimates the spatial uncertainty resulting from aggregation.

Objective To study epidemiological trends related to cutaneous leishmaniasis (CL) in Al Hassa, an endemic area in Saudi Arabia. Methods This retrospective study included the spatial/temporal analysis of the reported cases of CL using the available surveillance database for the disease at the regional Vector Control Unit, from 2000 to 2010. Results The incidence of CL was declining at a stable rate especially during the last 3 years of the study (2008-2010). An interesting finding was the percentage of expatriates affected was increasing over the last 10 years compared to that of the Saudis. Conclusions A definite declining trend in the incidence of CL was observed in Al Hassa. Further studies are warranted to assess whether special public health measures are needed for better control of CL in expatriate populations in Saudi Arabia.

Background/PurposeEnvironmental factors, different ages, and detection methods might affect the profiles of allergy sensitization and confound the diagnosis of allergic diseases. The purpose of this study was to investigate the different profiles of allergen sensitization in different ages, geographic areas, and detection methods.MethodsWe analyzed the patients who received allergen sensitization tests by the automated microfluidic-based immunoassay system (BioIC) method at Show Chwan Memorial Hospital in Changhua City and at Chang Bing Show Chwan Hospital in Lu-gang from January 2011 to December 2011. Results were compared in different ages (3–6, 7–18, and ≥19), different geographic areas, and different detection methods and analyzed by Chi-square or Fisher exact test depending on sample size.ResultsA total of 1145 patients were analyzed. The younger the age, the higher the food allergy sensitization rate is found (26.6% vs. 14.7% vs.11.1% p

OBJECTIVE: To investigate temporal, seasonal, and geographic variations in the incidence of necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC) and its relation to early infant survival in the Swedish population and in subgroups based on gestational age, birth weight, and gender. METHODS: In the Swedish birth cohort of 1987 through 2009 all children with a diagnosis of NEC were identified in the National Patient Register, the Swedish Medical Birth Register, and the National Cause of Death Register. NEC incidence, early mortality, and seasonality were analyzed with descriptive statistics, Poisson regression, and auto regression. RESULTS: The overall incidence of NEC was 3.4 in 10 000 live births, higher in boys than in girls (incidence rate ratio 1.22, 95% confidence interval 1.06–1.40, P = .005), with a peak in November and a trough in May, and increased with an average of ∼5% a year during the study period. In most subgroups, except the most immature, an initial decrease was followed by a steady increase. Seven-day mortality decreased strongly in all subgroups over the entire study period (annual incidence rate ratio 0.96, 95% confidence interval 0.95–0.96, P < .001). This was especially marked in the most premature and low birth weight infants. CONCLUSIONS: After an initial decrease, the incidence of NEC has increased in Sweden during the last decades. An association with the concurrent dramatically improved early survival seems likely.

Aedes albopictus is a vector of dengue and chikungunya viruses in the field, along with around 24 additional arboviruses under laboratory conditions. As an invasive mosquito species, Ae. albopictus has been expanding in geographical range over the past 20 years, although the poleward extent of mosquito populations is limited by winter temperatures. Nonetheless, population densities depend on environmental conditions and since global climate change projections indicate increasing temperatures and altered patterns of rainfall, geographic distributions of previously tropical mosquito species may change. Although mathematical models can provide explanatory insight into observed patterns of disease prevalence in terms of epidemiological and entomological processes, understanding how environmental variables affect transmission is possible only with reliable model parameterisation, which, in turn, is obtained only through a thorough understanding of the relationship between mosquito biology and environmental variables. Thus, in order to assess the impact of climate change on mosquito population distribution and regions threatened by vector-borne disease, a detailed understanding (through a synthesis of current knowledge) of the relationship between climate, mosquito biology, and disease transmission is required, but this process has not yet been undertaken for Ae. albopictus. In this review, the impact of temperature, rainfall, and relative humidity on Ae. albopictus development and survival are considered. Existing Ae. albopictus populations across Europe are mapped with current climatic conditions, considering whether estimates of climatic cutoffs for Ae. albopictus are accurate, and suggesting that environmental thresholds must be calibrated according to the scale and resolution of climate model outputs and mosquito presence data.

Dogs infected with Angiostrongylus vasorum, a potentially lethal parasite living in the heart and pulmonary arteries, may present severe respiratory and neurological sings and coagulopathies. Its occurrence is increasingly reported from various European countries, but little is known about its presence in Poland. In this first large-scale survey, 3,345 sera from polish dogs attending veterinary clinics in different parts of Poland for various reasons were collected and tested by an ELISA for the detection of circulating antigen of A. vasorum and by a separate ELISA detecting specific antibodies. A total of 0.51 % (n = 17, 95% Confidence Intervals, CI: 0.30–0.81 %) of the animals were positive in both ELISAs, while 0.78 % (n = 26, CI: 0.51–1.14 %) of the tested dogs were antigen-positive only and 1.29 % (n = 43, CI: 0.93–1.73 %) were positive for specific antibodies only. Regions with antigen- and antibody-positive animals were overlapping and distributed over the whole area of the country, with approximately one third of positives close to the Baltic Sea, and a limited number of cases close to the German border. These results confirm the occurrence of A. vasorum in dogs originating from different parts of Poland. A. vasorum serology presents significant advantages (diagnosis before patency, single serum sample instead of repeated faecal samples, rapidity and affordability particularly in case of large number of samples), and it can be considered a valid alternative for diagnosis in individuals and in epidemiological studies.

Background. Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has rapidly spread among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China in recent years; the magnitude of the epidemic is unclear. We sought to test 3 hypotheses: (1) The prevalence of both HIV and syphilis among MSM in China is high, (2) the 2 epidemics each have unique geographical distributions, and (3) demographic and sexual behavior characteristics are different among segments of the MSM population in China. Methods. A total of 47 231 MSM from 61 cities in China participated in a cross-sectional survey conducted from February 2008 to September 2009. Demographic and behavioral data were collected and analyzed and blood samples tested for HIV and syphilis. Three subgroups among the broader MSM sample were described. Main outcome measures were HIV and syphilis prevalence. Results. An overall prevalence of 4.9% (2314/47 231; 95% confidence interval [CI], 4.7%–5.1%) for HIV and 11.8% (5552/47 231; 95% CI, 11.5%–12.0%) for syphilis was found. Syphilis-positive MSM had the highest HIV prevalence, 12.5% (693/5552; 95% CI, 11.6%–13.4%). However, correlations between HIV and syphilis prevalence were found in only 3 of 6 geographical regions (Northwest: r = 0.82, P = .0253; East: r = 0.78, P = .0004; and South-central: r = 0.63, P = .0276). Three subgroups—nonlocal MSM, Internet-using MSM, and female-partnering MSM—were found to have different profiles of characteristics and behaviors. Conclusions. HIV and syphilis prevalences among MSM in China are high and the 2 epidemics are largely separate geographically. Three segments of the Chinese MSM population each have different demographic and sexual risk “profiles” that suggest high potential for bridging infection across geographies, generations, and sexes.

SUMMARY Mycobacterium tuberculosis variant Beijing B0/W148 is regarded as a successful clone of M. tuberculosis that is widespread in the former Soviet Union and respective immigrant communities. Understanding the pathobiology and phylogeography of this notorious strain may help to clarify its origin and evolutionary history and the driving forces behind its emergence and current dissemination. I present the first review and analysis of all available data on the subject. In spite of the common perception of the omnipresence of B0/W148 across post-Soviet countries, its geographic distribution shows a peculiar clinal gradient. Its frequency peaks in Siberian Russia and, to a lesser extent, in the European part of the former Soviet Union. In contrast, the frequency of B0/W148 is sharply decreased in the Asian part of the former Soviet Union, and it is absent in autochthonous populations elsewhere in the world. Placing the molecular, clinical, and epidemiological features in a broad historical, demographic, and ecological context, I put forward two interdependent hypotheses. First, B0/W148 likely originated in Siberia, and its primary dispersal was driven by a massive population outflow from Siberia to European Russia in the 1960s to 1980s. Second, a historically recent, phylogenetically demonstrated successful dissemination of the Beijing B0/W148 strain was triggered by the advent and wide use of modern antituberculosis (anti-TB) drugs and was due to the remarkable capacity of this strain to acquire drug resistance. In contrast, there is some indication, but not yet systematic proof, of an enhanced virulence of this strain.

Background: Increased methamphetamine use occurred during the last decade and little is known about factors associated with death. This study assesses trends in psychostimulant deaths in the United States. Methods: Using the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Wonder Database, the authors searched deaths among 15- to 64-year-olds from 1999 to 2009 for decedents who died with “psychostimulants with abuse potential, excluding cocaine.” The International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code T43.6 was used to identify methamphetamine-related deaths. Trends in death rates and the most common underlying causes of death were determined. For recent trends, age-adjusted death rates/100,000 person-years (p-y) and (95% confidence intervals [CIs]) among those who died with psychostimulants were calculated. Results: The rate of psychostimulant-related deaths increased 3-fold from 1999 (0.37/100,000 p-y; 95% CI: 0.354–0.39) to 2005 (1.05/100,000 p-y; 95% CI: 1.01–1.10). Deaths steadily declined from 2006 to 2008, but rose again in 2009 to 0.97/100,000 p-y (95% CI: 0.92–1.01). Across all age groups, men had a 2 to 3 times higher rate of death than women. American Indians/Alaska Natives were twice as likely to die a psychostimulant-related death as compared with non-Hispanic whites. The northwestern/western region of the US had the highest rates of psychostimulant-related deaths, whereas the northeastern region had the lowest death rates. “Accidental poisonings” (ICD-10: X40–49) was the most frequently listed cause of death among those who died with psychostimulants. Conclusions: Psychostimulant-related deaths increased from 1999 to 2006, declined from 2006 to 2008, but rebounded in 2009. Interventions targeting those at highest risk of death must be implemented and studied to prevent increasing deaths.

New cases of leprosy are still being detected in Colombia after the country declared achievement of the WHO defined 'elimination' status. To study the ecology of leprosy in endemic regions, a combination of geographic and molecular tools were applied for a group of 201 multibacillary patients including six multi-case families from eleven departments. The location (latitude and longitude) of patient residences were mapped. Slit skin smears and/or skin biopsies were collected and DNA was extracted. Standard agarose gel electrophoresis following a multiplex PCR-was developed for rapid and inexpensive strain typing of Mycobacterium leprae based on copy numbers of two VNTR minisatellite loci 27-5 and 12-5. A SNP (C/T) in gyrA (SNP7614) was mapped by introducing a novel PCR-RFLP into an ongoing drug resistance surveillance effort. Multiple genotypes were detected combining the three molecular markers. The two frequent genotypes in Colombia were SNP7614(C)/27-5(5)/12-5(4) [C54] predominantly distributed in the Atlantic departments and SNP7614 (T)/27-5(4)/12-5(5) [T45] associated with the Andean departments. A novel genotype SNP7614 (C)/27-5(6)/12-5(4) [C64] was detected in cities along the Magdalena river which separates the Andean from Atlantic departments; a subset was further characterized showing association with a rare allele of minisatellite 23-3 and the SNP type 1 of M. leprae. The genotypes within intra-family cases were conserved. Overall, this is the first large scale study that utilized simple and rapid assay formats for identification of major strain types and their distribution in Colombia. It provides the framework for further strain type discrimination and geographic information systems as tools for tracing transmission of leprosy.

Hepatitis A virus (HAV) remains a public health concern worldwide contributing to significant morbidity in developed and developing countries. This cross-sectional database study estimated the overall HAV seroprevalence and the seroprevalence by gender, age, region and socioeconomic status in Mexico. Between January and October 2010, serum samples collected during the National Health and Nutrition survey (ENSANUT 2006) were obtained from subjects aged 1–95 y. Subjects’ gender, age, geographical region and socioeconomic status were extracted from the survey and compiled into a subset database by the Mexican National Institute of Public Health. Anti-HAV antibodies were measured using a chemiluminescent immunoassay. A total of 3658 subjects were included in the according-to-protocol cohort. Overall, the HAV seroprevalence was 84.2%. The HAV seroprevalence rates were similar between females (86.1%) and males (82.2%). The percentage of subjects seropositive for anti-HAV antibodies was highest in adults aged ≥ 20 y (96.9%), followed by adolescents aged 10–19 y (80.1%) and lowest in children aged 1–9 y (45.0%) (p < 0.0001). Regionally, the highest HAV seroprevalence rate was observed in the South (88.8%) followed by Central and Northern Mexico and Mexico City (p = 0.02). The HAV seroprevalence was similar between subjects of high socioeconomic (90.1%) status and of low socioeconomic status (86.6%). This study confirms the intermediate HAV endemicity in Mexico. Cost-effectiveness studies are necessary to evaluate the inclusion of an effective hepatitis A vaccine from a population-based perspective in addition to continuous efforts to improve hygiene and sanitation that have a substantial impact on the disease burden.

This article traces the spread and route of the H1N1 pandemic in 2009 from its possible origin in La Gloria to Mexico City. A lack of health control measures or nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) in La Gloria accounts for the unprecedented high basic reproductive number (R0) in that town and a higher incidence of H1N1 flu in Mexico City.We analyzed data collected from Mexican news articles, the Healthmaps dataset, the Google search engine, and telephone interviews with Mexican community physicians and residents. Our article uses a simple Susceptible Infected and Recovered model based on the data collected, to show the relationship between the disease curve and the implementation of NPI use. As a result of this study, we conclude that, with strict government measures to control the disease over an extended period of time, it is possible that many hundreds or even thousands of lives might be saved in the future.

OBJECTIVES: Obesity is a growing problem in Canada and worldwide. While obesity maps that convey changing rates over time and geography provide a useful way to convey such information, regional obesity surveillance maps for Canada have not been published since 1998. This research provides a summary of changing Canadian obesity rates since that time. METHODS: We computed estimated obesity rates for provinces and territories across Canada from 2000 to 2011. Data were based on Canadian Community Health Survey and corrected for self-report bias. Data reporting the estimated percent of the adult population who are obese were mapped over time overall and by sex according to Canadian province and territory. RESULTS: The data indicate that the estimated prevalence of obesity across Canada has continued to increase over the past 11 years. Current rates exceed 30% in the Maritime provinces (Newfoundland, New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Prince Edward Island) and in two territories (Northwest Territory, Nunavut). Data for men and women are generally consistent. The major increase in obesity appears to have occurred in the first part of this period, with relatively stable rates found from 2008 to 2011. However, obesity rates are still climbing, warranting continued surveillance efforts. CONCLUSION: Maps showing changing regional obesity rates provide a compelling pan-Canadian portrait that can lead to an impetus for action for the public, health care providers, and decision makers. Such colour-coded maps offer an efficient way to convey complex data that transcends language differences and personalizes the data for the viewer.

Tuberculosis is an important public health problem in Mexico. However, limited information about the genetic diversity of Mycobacterium tuberculosis strains circulating in the country is available. In this work, 109 multidrug-resistant (MDR) M. tuberculosis isolates collected in 23 different states of Mexico in 2003 were retrospectively characterized by spoligotyping and MIRU-VNTRs. All isolates, except for a single cluster containing two strains (subcluster E1), were split when information from the 12-loci MIRUs and spoligo-pattern was simultaneously analyzed. The discriminative power of 12-loci MIRU-VNTR and spoligotyping, by the Hunter-Gaston index, were 0.9998 and 0.9011, respectively. These findings suggest that almost all cases were epidemiologically unrelated. Instead, the genetic variations observed among these strains are suggestive of emergence of acquired drug-resistance during the course of treatment. The results suggest a high degree of genetic variability and a high frequency of SIT53 (T1 family) spoligotype among the MDR M. tuberculosis isolates included in the study.

Dengue fever (DF) is often asymptomatic in endemic areas. Asymptomatic infection during a DF outbreak in China, where DF is not endemic, has not been reported until now. In this study a total of 365 subjects from 6 villages were recruited from October 4–7, 2009. Overall, 102 subjects (27.95%) were positive for dengue virus (DENV) IgM, and 14 subjects (3.84%) were positive for DENV IgG and IgM. In different age groups, seropositive rates varied from 12.50% to 50.00% for DENV IgM, and from 0% to 11.76% for DENV IgG. Seroprevalence of DENV IgM was significantly higher than that of DENV IgG. Seroprevalence rates of DENV IgM differed among different villages. However, the seroprevalence of DENV IgM was not statistically significantly different among gender and age groups. Asymptomatic DF infection is prevalent in non-endemic areas.

SUMMARYThe importance of pork in the transmission of Salmonella spp. to humans has led to the development of control programmes worldwide. For this, knowledge on the epidemiology of the infection in the production system is fundamental to the efficacy of the regulations. Our objective was to determine the prevalence and spatial distribution of Salmonella-infected farms in the central region of Argentina, and to identify the predominant serotypes and epidemiological factors associated with an increased risk of infection. Salmonella was isolated from 22 of 52 sampled farms, for a farm prevalence of 42·3% (95% confidence interval 28·4–56·1). The most frequent serotypes isolated were S. Typhimurium and S. Derby, which have often been considered of public health concern in the region. Limited evidences of global and local clustering in the region under study were found, and the type of feed and presence of diarrhoeic pigs were significantly associated with having Salmonella shedders in the farm. This highlights the need to evaluate microbiological controls at the farm level, and demonstrates the usefulness of the spatial tools to identify areas of greatest risk when processing pork at slaughterhouse, which could contribute to increasing the food safety of pork products.

OBJECTIVES: Malaria risk maps have re-emerged as an important tool for appropriately targeting the limited resources available for malaria control. In Sub-Saharan Africa empirically derived maps using standardized criteria are few and this paper considers the development of a model of malaria risk for East Africa. METHODS: Statistical techniques were applied to high spatial resolution remotely sensed, human settlement and land-use data to predict the intensity of malaria transmission as defined according to the childhood parasite ratio (PR) in East Africa. Discriminant analysis was used to train environmental and human settlement predictor variables to distinguish between four classes of PR risk shown to relate to disease outcomes in the region. RESULTS: Independent empirical estimates of the PR were identified from Kenya, Tanzania and Uganda (n = 330). Surrogate markers of climate recorded on-board earth orbiting satellites, population settlement, elevation and water bodies all contributed significantly to the predictive models of malaria transmission intensity in the sub-region. The accuracy of the model was increased by stratifying East Africa into two ecological zones. In addition, the inclusion of urbanization as a predictor of malaria prevalence, whilst reducing formal accuracy statistics, nevertheless improved the consistency of the predictive map with expert opinion malaria maps. The overall accuracy achieved with ecological zone and urban stratification was 62% with surrogates of precipitation and temperature being among the most discriminating predictors of the PR. CONCLUSIONS: It is possible to achieve a high degree of predictive accuracy for Plasmodium falciparum parasite prevalence in East Africa using high-spatial resolution environmental data. However, discrepancies were evident from mapped outputs from the models which were largely due to poor coverage of malaria training data and the comparable spatial resolution of predictor data. These deficiencies will only be addressed by more random, intensive small areas studies of empirical estimates of PR.

Background Some areas of Africa are witnessing a malaria transition, in part due to escalated international donor support and intervention coverage. Areas where declining malaria rates have been observed are largely characterized by relatively low baseline transmission intensity and rapid scaling of interventions. Less well described are changing patterns of malaria burden in areas of high parasite transmission and slower increases in control and treatment access. Methods Uganda is a country predominantly characterized by intense, perennial malaria transmission. Monthly pediatric admission data from five Ugandan hospitals and their catchments have been assembled retrospectively across 11 years from January 1999 to December 2009. Malaria admission rates adjusted for changes in population density within defined catchment areas were computed across three time periods that correspond to periods where intervention coverage data exist and different treatment and prevention policies were operational. Time series models were developed adjusting for variations in rainfall and hospital use to examine changes in malaria hospitalization over 132 months. The temporal changes in factors that might explain changes in disease incidence were qualitatively examined sequentially for each hospital setting and compared between hospital settings Results In four out of five sites there was a significant increase in malaria admission rates. Results from time series models indicate a significant month-to-month increase in the mean malaria admission rates at four hospitals (trend P < 0.001). At all hospitals malaria admissions had increased from 1999 by 47% to 350%. Observed changes in intervention coverage within the catchments of each hospital showed a change in insecticide-treated net coverage from Conclusions The declining malaria disease burden in some parts of Africa is not a universal phenomena across the continent. Despite moderate increases in the coverage of measures to reduce infection and disease without significant coincidental increasing access to effective medicines to treat disease may not lead to severe disease burden reductions in high transmission areas of Africa. More data is needed from a wider range of malaria settings to provide an honest tracking progress of the impact of scaled intervention coverage in Africa.

Background Burkholderia pseudomallei, a Tier 1 Select Agent and the cause of melioidosis, is a Gram-negative bacillus present in the environment in many tropical countries. Defining the global pattern of B. pseudomallei distribution underpins efforts to prevent infection, and is dependent upon robust environmental sampling methodology. Our objective was to review the literature on the detection of environmental B. pseudomallei, update the risk map for melioidosis, and propose international consensus guidelines for soil sampling. Methods/Principal Findings An international working party (Detection of Environmental Burkholderia pseudomallei Working Party (DEBWorP)) was formed during the VIth World Melioidosis Congress in 2010. PubMed (January 1912 to December 2011) was searched using the following MeSH terms: pseudomallei or melioidosis. Bibliographies were hand-searched for secondary references. The reported geographical distribution of B. pseudomallei in the environment was mapped and categorized as definite, probable, or possible. The methodology used for detecting environmental B. pseudomallei was extracted and collated. We found that global coverage was patchy, with a lack of studies in many areas where melioidosis is suspected to occur. The sampling strategies and bacterial identification methods used were highly variable, and not all were robust. We developed consensus guidelines with the goals of reducing the probability of false-negative results, and the provision of affordable and ‘low-tech’ methodology that is applicable in both developed and developing countries. Conclusions/Significance The proposed consensus guidelines provide the basis for the development of an accurate and comprehensive global map of environmental B. pseudomallei., Author Summary Melioidosis is a serious infectious disease caused by the Tier 1 selected agent and Gram-negative environmental saprophyte, Burkholderia pseudomallei. The organism is commonly found in soil and water in melioidosis endemic areas. Infection in humans occurs following bacterial inoculation, inhalation or ingestion. There is a striking lack of accurate information on the global risk of melioidosis, something that could be determined from the global distribution of environmental B. pseudomallei. Soil sampling to detect the presence of B. pseudomallei has been ad hoc, poorly standardized, and the available information poorly collated. Negative studies are almost never reported, and there is no published review on this topic. We responded to this problem during the VIth World Melioidosis Congress held in Townsville, Australia in December 2010 by forming the ‘Detection of Environmental Burkholderia pseudomallei Working Party (DEBWorP)’. We have since worked together to undertake a systematic review, map the available information, and reach a consensus on low cost methods for the detection of environmental B. pseudomallei. Our goal is to promote the use of these consensus methods and encourage people worldwide to participate in an effort to produce a comprehensive global map of environmental B. pseudomallei.

Background Leptospirosis is a water-borne and widespread spirochetal zoonosis caused by pathogenic bacteria called leptospires. Human leptospirosis is an important zoonotic infectious disease with frequent outbreaks in recent years in China. Leptospirosis’s emergence has been linked to many environmental and ecological drivers of disease transmission. In this paper, we identified the environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with leptospirosis in China, and predict potential risk area of leptospirosis using predictive models. Methods Leptospirosis incidence data were derived from the database of China’s web-based infectious disease reporting system, a national surveillance network maintained by Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention. We built statistical relationship between occurrence of leptospirosis and nine environmental and socioeconomic risk factors using logistic regression model and Maxent model. Results Both logistic regression model and Maxent model have high performance in predicting the occurrence of leptospirosis, with AUC value of 0.95 and 0.96, respectively. Annual mean temperature (Bio1) and annual total precipitation (Bio12) are two most important variables governing the geographic distribution of leptospirosis in China. The geographic distributions of areas at risk of leptospirosis predicted from both models show high agreement. The risk areas are located mainly in seven provinces of China: Sichuan Province, Chongqing Municipality, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Guangdong Province, Guangxi Province, and Hainan Province, where surveillance and control programs are urgently needed. Logistic regression model and Maxent model predicted that 403 and 464 counties are at very high risk of leptospirosis, respectively. Conclusions Our results highlight the importance of socioeconomic and environmental variables and predictive models in identifying risk areas for leptospirosis in China. The values of Geographic Information System and predictive models were demonstrated for investigating the geographic distribution, estimating socioeconomic and environmental risk factors, and enhancing our understanding of leptospirosis in China.

Background Determining the spatial patterns of infection among young children living in a malaria-endemic area may provide a means of locating high-risk populations who could benefit from additional resources for treatment and improved access to healthcare. The objective of this secondary analysis of baseline data from a cluster-randomized trial among 1943 young Ghanaian children (6–35 months of age) was to determine the geo-spatial factors associated with malaria and non-malaria infection status. Methods Spatial analyses were conducted using a generalized linear geostatistical model with a Matern spatial correlation function and four definitions of infection status using different combinations of inflammation (C-reactive protein, CRP > 5 mg/L) and malaria parasitaemia (with or without fever). Potentially informative variables were included in a final model through a series of modelling steps, including: individual-level variables (Model 1); household-level variables (Model 2); and, satellite-derived spatial variables (Model 3). A final (Model 4) and maximal model (Model 5) included a set of selected covariates from Models 1 to 3. Results The final models indicated that children with inflammation (CRP > 5 mg/L) and/or any evidence of malaria parasitaemia at baseline were more likely to be under 2 years of age, stunted, wasted, live further from a health facility, live at a lower elevation, have less educated mothers, and higher ferritin concentrations (corrected for inflammation) compared to children without inflammation or parasitaemia. Similar results were found when infection was defined as clinical malaria or parasitaemia with/without fever (definitions 3 and 4). Conversely, when infection was defined using CRP only, all covariates were non-significant with the exception of baseline ferritin concentration. In Model 5, all infection definitions that included parasitaemia demonstrated a significant interaction between normalized difference vegetation index and land cover type. Maps of the predicted infection probabilities and spatial random effect showed defined high- and low-risk areas that tended to coincide with elevation and cluster around villages. Conclusions The risk of infection among young children in a malaria-endemic area may have a predictable spatial pattern which is associated with geographical characteristics, such as elevation and distance to a health facility. Original trial registration clinicaltrials.gov (NCT01001871) Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1388-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Variable incidence rates of rotavirus gastroenteritis hospitalizations have been reported in Japan. However, it is not known whether the observed regional differences were due to the real difference in the occurrence of severe disease or other causes. This study aimed to determine the incidence rates of rotavirus hospitalization among children aged

Background Malaria is one of the most severe parasitic diseases in the world. Spatial distribution estimation of malaria and its future scenarios are important issues for malaria control and elimination. Furthermore, sophisticated nonlinear relationships for prediction between malaria incidence and potential variables have not been well constructed in previous research. This study aims to estimate these nonlinear relationships and predict future malaria scenarios in northern China. Methods Nonlinear relationships between malaria incidence and predictor variables were constructed using a genetic programming (GP) method, to predict the spatial distributions of malaria under climate change scenarios. For this, the examples of monthly average malaria incidence were used in each county of northern China from 2004 to 2010. Among the five variables at county level, precipitation rate and temperature are used for projections, while elevation, water density index, and gross domestic product are held at their present-day values. Results Average malaria incidence was 0.107 ‰ per annum in northern China, with incidence characteristics in significant spatial clustering. A GP-based model fit the relationships with average relative error (ARE) = 8.127 % for training data (R2 = 0.825) and 17.102 % for test data (R2 = 0.532). The fitness of GP results are significantly improved compared with those by generalized additive models (GAM) and linear regressions. With the future precipitation rate and temperature conditions in Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) family B1, A1B and A2 scenarios, spatial distributions and changes in malaria incidences in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 were predicted and mapped. Conclusions The GP method increases the precision of predicting the spatial distribution of malaria incidence. With the assumption of varied precipitation rate and temperature, and other variables controlled, the relationships between incidence and the varied variables appear sophisticated nonlinearity and spatially differentiation. Using the future fluctuated precipitation and the increased temperature, median malaria incidence in 2020, 2030, 2040 and 2050 would significantly increase that it might increase 19 to 29 % in 2020, but currently China is in the malaria elimination phase, indicating that the effective strategies and actions had been taken. While the mean incidences will not increase even reduce due to the incidence reduction in high-risk regions but the simultaneous expansion of the high-risk areas.

The host immune response to foreign materials is a major hurdle for implanted medical devices. To control this response, modulation of macrophage behavior has emerged as a promising strategy, given their prominent role in inflammation and wound healing. Towards this goal, we explore the effect of biomimetic multi-scale wrinkles on macrophage adhesion and expression of phenotype markers. We find that macrophages elongate along the direction of the uniaxial wrinkles made from shape memory polymers, and express more arginase-1 and IL-10, and less TNF-α, suggesting polarization towards an alternatively activated, anti-inflammatory phenotype. Materials were further implanted in the subcutaneous space of mice and tissue surrounding the material evaluated by histology and immunohistochemistry. We found that material surface topography altered the distribution of collagen deposition in the adjacent tissue, with denser collagen tissue observed near flat materials when compared to wrinkled materials. Furthermore, cells surrounding wrinkled materials exhibited higher arginase-1 expression. Together these data suggest that wrinkled material surfaces promote macrophage alternative activation, and may influence the foreign body response to implants.

Previous analyses of neighbourhood variations of non-affective psychotic disorders (NAPD) have focused mainly on incidence. However, prevalence studies provide important insights on factors associated with disease evolution as well as for healthcare resource allocation. This study aimed to investigate the distribution of prevalent NAPD cases in an urban area in France. The number of cases in each neighbourhood was modelled as a function of potential confounders and ecological variables, namely: migrant density, economic deprivation and social fragmentation. This was modelled using statistical models of increasing complexity: frequentist models (using Poisson and negative binomial regressions), and several Bayesian models. For each model, assumptions validity were checked and compared as to how this fitted to the data, in order to test for possible spatial variation in prevalence. Data showed significant overdispersion (invalidating the Poisson regression model) and residual autocorrelation (suggesting the need to use Bayesian models). The best Bayesian model was Leroux’s model (i.e. a model with both strong correlation between neighbouring areas and weaker correlation between areas further apart), with economic deprivation as an explanatory variable (OR = 1.13, 95% CI [1.02–1.25]). In comparison with frequentist methods, the Bayesian model showed a better fit. The number of cases showed non-random spatial distribution and was linked to economic deprivation.

BackgroundPlasmodium knowlesi and Plasmodium cynomolgi are two malaria parasites naturally transmissible between humans and wild macaque through mosquito vectors, while Plasmodium inui can be experimentally transmitted from macaques to humans. One of their major natural hosts, the long-tailed macaque (Macaca fascicularis), is host to two other species of Plasmodium (Plasmodium fieldi and Plasmodium coatneyi) and is widely distributed in Southeast Asia. This study aims to determine the distribution of wild macaques infected with malarial parasites by examining samples derived from seven populations in five countries across Southeast Asia.MethodsPlasmodium knowlesi, P. cynomolgi, P. coatneyi, P. inui and P. fieldi, were detected using nested PCR assays in DNA samples from 276 wild-caught long-tailed macaques. These samples had been derived from macaques captured at seven locations, two each in the Philippines (n=68) and Indonesia (n=70), and one each in Cambodia (n=54), Singapore (n=40) and Laos (n=44). The results were compared with previous studies of malaria parasites in long-tailed macaques from other locations in Southeast Asia. Fisher exact test and Chi square test were used to examine the geographic bias of the distribution of Plasmodium species in the macaque populations.ResultsOut of 276 samples tested, 177 were Plasmodium-positive, with P. cynomolgi being the most common and widely distributed among all long-tailed macaque populations (53.3%) and occurring in all populations examined, followed by P. coatneyi (20.4%), P. inui (12.3%), P. fieldi (3.4%) and P. knowlesi (0.4%). One P. knowlesi infection was detected in a macaque from Laos, representing the first documented case of P. knowlesi in wildlife in Laos. Chi square test showed three of the five parasites (P. knowlesi, P. coatneyi, P. cynomolgi) with significant bias in prevalence towards macaques from Malaysian Borneo, Cambodia, and Southern Sumatra, respectively.ConclusionsThe prevalence of malaria parasites, including those that are transmissible to humans, varied among all sampled regional populations of long-tailed macaques in Southeast Asia. The new discovery of P. knowlesi infection in Laos, and the high prevalence of P. cynomolgi infections in wild macaques in general, indicate the strong need of public advocacy in related countries.

The epidemic of lung cancer in Xuanwei City, China, remains serious despite the reduction of the risk of indoor air pollution through citywide stove improvement. The main objective of this study was to characterize the influences of topography on the spatiotemporal variations of lung cancer mortality in Xuanwei during 1990–2013. Using the spatially empirical Bayes method, the smoothed mortality rate of lung cancer was obtained according to the mortality data and population data collected from the retrospective survey (1990–2005) and online registration data (2011–2013). Spatial variations of the village-level mortality rate and topographic factors, including the relief degree of land surface (RDLS) and dwelling conditions (VDC), were characterized through spatial autocorrelation and hotspot analysis. The relationship between topographic factors and the epidemic of lung cancer was explored using correlation analysis and geographically weighted regression (GWR). There is a pocket-like area (PLA) in Xuanwei, covering the clustered villages with lower RDLS and higher VDC. Although the villages with higher mortality rate (>80 per 105) geographically expanded from the center to the northeast of Xuanwei during 1990–2013, the village-level mortality rate was spatially clustered, which yielded a persistent hotspot area in the upward part of the PLA. In particular, the epidemic of lung cancer was closely correlated with both RDLS and VDC at the village scale, and its spatial heterogeneity could be greatly explained by the village-level VDC in the GWR model. Spatiotemporally featured lung cancer mortality in Xuanwei was potentially influenced by topographic conditions at the village scale.

To compare the pattern of cause of death of infant mortality rates by urban/rural areas as well as to generate knowledge for potential strategies to decrease this mortality, we carried out a study by analyzing the infant mortality data from the Shenyang Women and Children Health Care Centre. From 1997 to 2014, 970,583 live births and 6510 infant deaths were registered. Infant mortality rates, percent change, and annual percent change (APC) were calculated. The infant mortality significantly decreased by 5.92%, 7.41%, and 3.92% per year in overall, urban, and rural areas, respectively. Among the categories of causes of infant death, congenital anomalies (APC = −7.87%), asphyxia-related conditions (APC = −9.43), immaturity-related conditions (APC = −3.44%), diseases of the nervous system and sense organs (APC = −6.01%), and diseases of the respiratory system (APC = −6.29%) decreased significantly in the observational periods. Additionally, among selective causes of infant death, pneumonia, congenital heart disease, neural tube defects, preterm birth and low birth weight, birth asphyxia, and intracranial hemorrhage of the newborn significantly decreased by 5.45%, 5.45%, 16.47%, 2.18%, 10.95%, and 10.33% per year, respectively. In conclusion, infant mortality has been continuously decreased in Shenyang from 1997 to 2014, although further efforts are still needed to decrease the infant mortality in rural areas.

Developmental topographical disorientation (DTD) refers to the lifelong inability to orient in extremely familiar surroundings despite the absence of any acquired brain damage or neurological disorder. Here, we describe the findings of this newly discovered condition, and highlight how this phenomenon provides novel insights into the mechanisms underlying human spatial navigation.

Background Glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD) deficiency, the most common genetic enzymopathy worldwide, is associated with an acute haemolytic anaemia in individuals exposed to primaquine. The present study aimed to determine G6PD deficiency among Yemeni children in malaria-endemic areas as well as to assess the performance of the CareStart™ G6PD rapid diagnostic test (RDT) for its detection. Methods A cross-sectional study recruiting 400 children from two rural districts in Hodeidah governorate was conducted. Socio-demographic data and blood samples were collected and G6PD deficiency was qualitatively detected in fresh blood in the field using the CareStart™ G6PD RDT, while the enzymatic assay was used to quantitatively measure enzyme activity. Performance of the CareStart™ G6PD RDT was assessed by calculating its sensitivity, specificity, negative predictive value (NPV), and positive predictive value (PPV) against the reference enzymatic assay. Results The ranges of enzyme activity were 0.14–18.45 and 0.21–15.94 units/g haemoglobin (U/gHb) for males and females, respectively. However, adjusted male median G6PD activity was 5.0 U/gHb. Considering the adjusted male median as representing 100 % normal enzyme activity, the prevalence rates of G6PD deficiency were 12.0 and 2.3 % at the cut-off activities of ≤60 and ≤10 %, respectively. Multivariable analysis showed that gender, district of residence and consanguinity between parents were independent risk factors for G6PD deficiency at the cut-off activity of ≤30 % of normal. The CareStart™ G6PD RDT showed 100 % sensitivity and NPV for detecting G6PD deficiency at the cut-off activities of ≤10 and ≤20 % of normal activity compared to the reference enzymatic method. However, it showed specificity levels of 90.0 and 95.4 % as well as positive/deficient predictive values (PPVs) of 18.0 and 66.0 % at the cut-off activities of ≤10 and ≤20 %, respectively, compared to the reference method. Conclusions G6PD deficiency with enzyme activity of ≤60 % of normal is prevalent among 12.0 % of children residing in malaria-endemic areas of Hodeidah governorate, with 2.3 % having severe G6PD deficiency. Gender, district of residence and consanguinity between parents are significant independent predictors of G6PD deficiency at the cut-off activity of ≤30 % of normal among children in malaria-endemic areas of Hodeidah. The CareStart™ G6PD RDT proved reliable as a point-of-care test to screen for severely G6PD-deficient patients, with 100 % sensitivity and NPV, and it can be used for making clinical decisions prior to the administration of primaquine in malaria elimination strategies.

Background Typhoid is an important public health challenge for India, especially with the spread of antimicrobial resistance. The decision about whether to introduce a public vaccination programme needs to be based on an understanding of disease burden and the age-groups and geographic areas at risk. Methods We searched Medline and Web of Science databases for studies reporting the incidence or prevalence of typhoid and paratyphoid fever confirmed by culture and/or serology, conducted in India and published between 1950 and 2015. We used binomial and Poisson mixed-effects meta-regression models to estimate prevalence and incidence from hospital and community studies, and to identify risk-factors. Results We identified 791 titles and abstracts, and included 37 studies of typhoid and 18 studies of paratyphoid in the systematic review and meta-analysis. The estimated prevalence of laboratory-confirmed typhoid and paratyphoid among individuals with fever across all hospital studies was 9.7% (95% CI: 5.7–16.0%) and 0.9% (0.5–1.7%) respectively. There was significant heterogeneity among studies (p-values, Author Summary Typhoid fever is an important cause of avoidable mortality in regions without adequate access to safe water and sanitation. Highly immunogenic typhoid conjugate vaccines are now licensed and under consideration as a public health intervention in India. The decision about whether and how to introduce a public vaccination programme needs to be based on an understanding of disease burden, and the age-groups and geographic areas at risk. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis of published studies reporting typhoid and paratyphoid incidence and prevalence in India between 1950 and 2015. The estimated prevalence of laboratory-confirmed typhoid and paratyphoid among individuals with fever across all hospital studies was 9.7% (95% CI: 5.7–16.0%) and 0.9% (0.5–1.7%) respectively, with a significant decline in prevalence of the former over time. We found only three population-based studies that reported incidence. Pooled estimates were 377 (178–801) and 105 (74–148) per 100,000 person years for typhoid and paratyphoid respectively, with incidence being highest in in children between 2 and 4 years. Despite an apparent decline in prevalence, typhoid remains a significant burden in India, particularly among young children. Studies are required to evaluate the effectiveness of infant immunisation with conjugate typhoid vaccines.

Background A proper identification of malaria vectors is essential for any attempt to control this disease. Between 40 and 47 Anopheles species have been recorded in Colombia, and eight species complexes have been identified in the last decade. An update of Anopheles species distribution and its relationship with malaria is required, particularly for newly identified members of species complexes. Methods A cross-sectional entomological study was conducted at 70 localities in the highest malaria transmission areas in Colombia. In each locality, immature and adult mosquitoes were collected. All specimens were determined using morphological characters and confirmed used restriction profiles of Internal Transcribed Spacer 2 (PCR–RFLP-ITS2), and Cytochrome c Oxidase I (COI) sequence gene. To detect natural Plasmodium infections, enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and nested PCR analysis were used. Distribution of Anopheles species was spatially associated with malaria incidence. Results A total of 1736 larvae and 12,052 adult mosquitoes were determined in the 70 localities. Thirteen Anopheles species were identified. COI sequence analysis suggested 4 new lineages for Colombia: for Anopheles albimanus (An. albimanus B), Anopheles pseudopunctipennis s.l., Anopheles neivai (An. neivai nr. neivai 4), and Anopheles apicimacula. Two members of species complexes were identified, as: Anopheles nuneztovari C, and Anopheles albitarsis I. Another seven species were confirmed. Four mosquitoes were infected with Plasmodium species, An. albimanus B and An. nuneztovari C. In Northwest of Colombia, An. nuneztovari C, An. albimanus, and Anopheles darlingi were present in the municipalities with highest annual parasitic index (API) (>35 cases/1000 inhabitants). In the north of South Pacific coast, with a similar API, An. nuneztovari C were widely distributed inland, and the main species in coastal regions were An. albimanus B and An. neivai s.l. In the South Pacific coast bordering with Ecuador, 3 Anopheles species were found in municipalities with high API (15–88 cases/1000 inhabitants): An. albimanus B, Anopheles calderoni and An. neivai s.l. Conclusions In the highest malaria areas of Colombia, 13 Anopheles species and four new lineages were found, which highlights the need for updating the species distribution. A DNA barcode analysis allowed the taxonomic identification to be refined, particularly for species complexes, and to improve the further understanding of their relation with malaria transmission. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1421-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Dengue is now established as one of the most important arboviral infections. As the epidemic continues unabated globally, this Aedes mosquito-transmitted pathogen is considered a major re-emerging tropical disease and significant public health concern. Four well-established distinct serotypes of dengue virus, with a fifth one recently proposed, are responsible for causing a spectrum of clinical symptoms in humans ranging from mild fever to severe haemorrhagic manifestations. Indigenous cases of dengue were first recognised in Nepal, a Himalayan country bordered by India and China, just a decade ago in a cluster of tropical and subtropical areas. Subsequently, the range of infection has extended all over the country and now comprises not only low lying regions, but also hilly locations including the capital city Kathmandu. The two major epidemics to date, in 2010 and 2013, have demonstrated the capacity of infection outbreaks to be explosive and challenging to currently available disease control measures. There is a pressing need to undertake effective vector surveillance studies supported by provision of well-equipped diagnostic virology laboratories. However, sincere efforts are being made to map the nationwide prevalence and understand the epidemiology of dengue infection. Yet, the precise burden of dengue in Nepal remains unknown, since most reports are confined to economically affluent areas and do not account for regions of relative social deprivation in which disease is more likely to occur. This review presents a current overview of dengue in Nepal and discusses future prospects for control of this debilitating disease in the country.

Urinary tract infection (UTI) is one of the most common infections in humans. It is primarily caused by uropathogenic Escherichia coli (UPEC), which has a high multidrug resistance (MDR). In consideration of the prevalence of MDR-UPEC strains, the aims of the present study were to systematically review the published data about the prevalence rate of MDR-UPEC from different parts of Iran and to establish the overall relative frequency (RF) of these strains in Iran. We searched several databases including PubMed, ISI Web of Science, Scopus, Google Scholar, IranMedex, and Iranian Scientific Information Database by using the following keywords: "Escherichia coli", "multidrug resistant", "MDR", "urinary tract infections", "UTI", "uropathogenic". and "Iran". Articles or abstracts that reported the prevalence of MDR-UPEC were included in this review. We found 15 articles suitable for inclusion in this study. A pooled estimation of 10,247 UPEC strains showed that 49.4% (95% confidence interval = 48.0-50.7%) of the stranis were MDR positive. The RF of MDR-UPEC in different studies varied from 10.5% to 79.2% in the Kashan and Hamedan provinces, respectively. According to the results of the present study, the RF of MDR-UPEC in Iran is high. Thus, measures should be taken to keep the emergence and transmission of these strains to a minimum.

Objectives To characterize blaIMP-4-carrying plasmids originating from inpatients in Hong Kong. Methods Sixteen blaIMP-4-carrying plasmids identified among Enterobacteriaceae (nine Escherichia coli, four Klebsiella pneumoniae, two Citrobacter freundii and one Enterobacter cloacae) recovered from 15 patients were characterized. The isolates, collected during January 2010 to December 2013, were retrospectively investigated by plasmid sequencing, molecular and fitness studies. Results The blaIMP-4-carrying plasmids belonged to the IncN ST7 lineage (∼50 kb). Twelve of the 16 plasmids were epidemiologically linked to seven different regions in China. Alignment of the complete plasmid sequences showed identical plasmid backbones and two highly similar resistance regions, each carrying one of two resistance genes (blaIMP-4 and qnrS1). The blaIMP-4 was detected in a class 1 integron (containing blaIMP-4 and intron Kl.pn.13) that is part of an IS6100-IS26 transposon-like structure. The nine E. coli carrying the epidemic plasmid belonged to multiple multilocus STs (six ST542, one ST131, one ST657 and one ST3177). Fitness assays performed on E. coli J53 recipients showed that the presence of the epidemic plasmid did not have a significant biological cost. Conclusions This study identified a blaIMP-4-carrying IncN ST7 plasmid disseminated among multiple enterobacterial species originating from patients with epidemiological links to different regions in China.

Background Clonorchiasis, one of the most important food-borne trematodiases, affects more than 12 million people in the People’s Republic of China (P.R. China). Spatially explicit risk estimates of Clonorchis sinensis infection are needed in order to target control interventions. Methodology Georeferenced survey data pertaining to infection prevalence of C. sinensis in P.R. China from 2000 onwards were obtained via a systematic review in PubMed, ISI Web of Science, Chinese National Knowledge Internet, and Wanfang Data from January 1, 2000 until January 10, 2016, with no restriction of language or study design. Additional disease data were provided by the National Institute of Parasitic Diseases, Chinese Center for Diseases Control and Prevention in Shanghai. Environmental and socioeconomic proxies were extracted from remote-sensing and other data sources. Bayesian variable selection was carried out to identify the most important predictors of C. sinensis risk. Geostatistical models were applied to quantify the association between infection risk and the predictors of the disease, and to predict the risk of infection across P.R. China at high spatial resolution (over a grid with grid cell size of 5×5 km). Principal findings We obtained clonorchiasis survey data at 633 unique locations in P.R. China. We observed that the risk of C. sinensis infection increased over time, particularly from 2005 onwards. We estimate that around 14.8 million (95% Bayesian credible interval 13.8–15.8 million) people in P.R. China were infected with C. sinensis in 2010. Highly endemic areas (≥ 20%) were concentrated in southern and northeastern parts of the country. The provinces with the highest risk of infection and the largest number of infected people were Guangdong, Guangxi, and Heilongjiang. Conclusions/Significance Our results provide spatially relevant information for guiding clonorchiasis control interventions in P.R. China. The trend toward higher risk of C. sinensis infection in the recent past urges the Chinese government to pay more attention to the public health importance of clonorchiasis and to target interventions to high-risk areas., Author summary Clonorchiasis is an important food-borne trematodiases and it has been estimated that more than 12 million people in China are affected. Precise information on where the disease occurs can help to identify priority areas for where control interventions should be implemented. We collected data from recent surveys on clonorchiasis and applied Bayesian geostatistical models to produce model-based, high-resolution risk maps for clonorchiasis in China. We found an increasing trend of infection risk from 2005 onwards. We estimated that approximately 14.8 million people in China were infected with Clonorchis sinensis in 2010. Areas where the high prevalence of C. sinensis was predicted were concentrated in the provinces of Guangdong, Guangxi, and Heilongjiang. Our results suggest that the Chinese government should pay more attention on the public health importance of clonorchiasis and that specific control efforts should be implemented in high-risk areas.

Avian influenza A, a highly pathogenic avian influenza, is a lethal infection in certain species of wild birds, including some endangered species. Raptors are susceptible to avian influenza, and spatial risk assessment of such species may be valuable for conservation planning. We used the maximum entropy approach to generate potential distribution models of three raptor species from presence-only data for the mountain hawk-eagle Nisaetus nipalensis, northern goshawk Accipiter gentilis and peregrine falcon Falco peregrinus, surveyed during the winter from 1996 to 2001. These potential distribution maps for raptors were superimposed on avian influenza A risk maps of Japan, created from data on incidence of the virus in wild birds throughout Japan from October 2010 to March 2011. The avian influenza A risk map for the mountain hawk-eagle showed that most regions of Japan had a low risk for avian influenza A. In contrast, the maps for the northern goshawk and peregrine falcon showed that their high-risk areas were distributed on the plains along the Sea of Japan and Pacific coast. We recommend enhanced surveillance for each raptor species in high-risk areas and immediate establishment of inspection systems. At the same time, ecological risk assessments that determine factors, such as the composition of prey species, and differential sensitivity of avian influenza A virus between bird species should provide multifaceted insights into the total risk assessment of endangered species.

Background Dogs in the United States are hosts to a diverse range of ticks and tick-borne pathogens, including A. phagocytophilum, an important emerging canine and human pathogen. Previously, a Companion Animal Parasite Council (CAPC)-sponsored workshop proposed factors purported to be associated with the infection risk for tick-transmitted pathogens in dogs in the United States, including climate conditions, socioeconomic characteristics, local topography, and vector distribution. Methods Approximately four million test results from routine veterinary diagnostic tests from 2011–2013, which were collected on a county level across the contiguous United States, are statistically analyzed with the proposed factors via logistic regression and generalized estimating equations. Spatial prevalence maps of baseline Anaplasma spp. prevalence are constructed from Kriging and head-banging smoothing methods. Results All of the examined factors, with the exception of surface water coverage, were significantly associated with Anaplasma spp. prevalence. Overall, Anaplasma spp. prevalence increases with increasing precipitation and forestation coverage and decreases with increasing temperature, population density, relative humidity, and elevation. Interestingly, socioeconomic status and deer/vehicle collisions were positively and negatively correlated with canine Anaplasma seroprevalence, respectively. A spatial map of the canine Anaplasma hazard is an auxiliary product of the analysis. Anaplasma spp. prevalence is highest in New England and the Upper Midwest. Conclusions The results from the two posited statistical models (one that contains an endemic areas assumption and one that does not) are in general agreement, with the major difference being that the endemic areas model estimates a larger prevalence in Western Texas, New Mexico, and Colorado. As A. phagocytophilum is zoonotic, the results of this analysis could also help predict areas of high risk for human exposure to this pathogen. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1431-7) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Leptospirosis is an important but neglected bacterial zoonosis that has been largely overlooked in Africa. In this systematic review, we aimed to summarise and compare current knowledge of: (1) the geographic distribution, prevalence, incidence and diversity of acute human leptospirosis in Africa; and (2) the geographic distribution, host range, prevalence and diversity of Leptospira spp. infection in animal hosts in Africa.Following Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-analyses (PRISMA) guidelines, we searched for studies that described (1) acute human leptospirosis and (2) pathogenic Leptospira spp. infection in animals. We performed a literature search using eight international and regional databases for English and non-English articles published between January 1930 to October 2014 that met out pre-defined inclusion criteria and strict case definitions.We identified 97 studies that described acute human leptospirosis (n = 46) or animal Leptospira infection (n = 51) in 26 African countries. The prevalence of acute human leptospirosis ranged from 2 3% to 19 8% (n = 11) in hospital patients with febrile illness. Incidence estimates were largely restricted to the Indian Ocean islands (3 to 101 cases per 100,000 per year (n = 6)). Data from Tanzania indicate that human disease incidence is also high in mainland Africa (75 to 102 cases per 100,000 per year). Three major species (Leptospira borgpetersenii, L. interrogans and L. kirschneri) are predominant in reports from Africa and isolates from a diverse range of serogroups have been reported in human and animal infections. Cattle appear to be important hosts of a large number of Leptospira serogroups in Africa, but few data are available to allow comparison of Leptospira infection in linked human and animal populations. We advocate a 'One Health' approach to promote multidisciplinary research efforts to improve understanding of the animal to human transmission of leptospirosis on the African continent.

Objective: There is evidence of substantial subnational variation in the HIV epidemic. However, robust spatial HIV data are often only available at high levels of geographic aggregation and not at the finer resolution needed for decision making. Therefore, spatial analysis methods that leverage available data to provide local estimates of HIV prevalence may be useful. Such methods exist but have not been formally compared when applied to HIV. Design/methods: Six candidate methods – including those used by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS to generate maps and a Bayesian geostatistical approach applied to other diseases – were used to generate maps and subnational estimates of HIV prevalence across three countries using cluster level data from household surveys. Two approaches were used to assess the accuracy of predictions: internal validation, whereby a proportion of input data is held back (test dataset) to challenge predictions; and comparison with location-specific data from household surveys in earlier years. Results: Each of the methods can generate usefully accurate predictions of prevalence at unsampled locations, with the magnitude of the error in predictions similar across approaches. However, the Bayesian geostatistical approach consistently gave marginally the strongest statistical performance across countries and validation procedures. Conclusions: Available methods may be able to furnish estimates of HIV prevalence at finer spatial scales than the data currently allow. The subnational variation revealed can be integrated into planning to ensure responsiveness to the spatial features of the epidemic. The Bayesian geostatistical approach is a promising strategy for integrating HIV data to generate robust local estimates.

Burkholderia pseudomallei, a highly pathogenic bacterium that causes melioidosis, is commonly found in soil in Southeast Asia and Northern Australia(1,2). Melioidosis can be difficult to diagnose due to its diverse clinical manifestations and the inadequacy of conventional bacterial identification methods(3). The bacterium is intrinsically resistant to a wide range of antimicrobials, and treatment with ineffective antimicrobials may result in case fatality rates (CFRs) exceeding 70%(4,5). The importation of infected animals has, in the past, spread melioidosis to non-endemic areas(6,7). The global distribution of B. pseudomallei and the burden of melioidosis, however, remain poorly understood. Here, we map documented human and animal cases and the presence of environmental B. pseudomallei and combine this in a formal modelling framework(8-10) to estimate the global burden of melioidosis. We estimate there to be 165,000 (95% credible interval 68,000-412,000) human melioidosis cases per year worldwide, from which 89,000 (36,000-227,000) people die. Our estimates suggest that melioidosis is severely underreported in the 45 countries in which it is known to be endemic and that melioidosis is probably endemic in a further 34 countries that have never reported the disease. The large numbers of estimated cases and fatalities emphasize that the disease warrants renewed attention from public health officials and policy makers.

The management of small- to medium-sized vestibular schwannoma (VS) remains controversial. Despite a lack of compelling evidence supporting one treatment modality over others, many providers and institutions remain highly biased toward one particular therapy—microsurgery, radiation, or primary observation. The objective of the current study was to estimate the impact of geography on disease presentation and initial treatment of VS in the United States. An analysis of the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database identified 9761 patients with VS that were managed across the 16 SEER geographic registry areas. Univariate analyses demonstrated strong associations between geographic location and tumor size at diagnosis (P

SUMMARYThis study aimed to compare the virology and epidemiology of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis (EKC), pharyngoconjunctival fever (PCF) and acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis (AHC) outbreaks worldwide caused by the human adenovirus (HAdV) from 1953 to 2013. Eighty-three hexon sequences from 76 conjunctivitis outbreaks were analysed and subtyped using Mega 5.05, Clustal X and SimPlot software. Epidemiology was performed for the area, age and seasonal distribution. A phylogenetic analysis indicated that all the isolates could be divided into three subgenetic lineages, without a common ancestor. The major causes of the outbreaks were Ad8, Ad7 and Ad2 co-infection with enterovirus 70 (EV70) in EKC, PCF and AHC, respectively. The epidemiological findings suggested that EKC and AHC were circulating predominantly in Asia during the early winter and spring, whereas PCF was circulating mainly in China, Australia and the United States during the summer. This study suggests that EKC, AHC and PCF outbreaks have different circulating patterns throughout the world and are caused by different adenovirus serotypes. A global surveillance system should be established to monitor conjunctivitis outbreaks in the future.

Fusarium is a rapidly emerging, multidrug-resistant genus of fungal opportunists that was first identified in 1958 and is presently recognized in numerous cases of fusariosis each year. The authors examined trends in global Fusarium distribution, clinical presentation and prevalence since 1958 with the assumption that their distributions in each region had remained unaltered. The phylogeny and epidemiology of 127 geographically diverse isolates, representing 26 Fusarium species, were evaluated using partial sequences of the RPB2 and TEF1 genes, and compared with AFLP fingerprinting data. The molecular data of the Fusarium species were compared with archived data, which enabled the interpretation of hundreds of cases published in the literature. Our findings indicate that fusariosis is globally distributed with a focus in (sub)tropical areas. Considerable species diversity has been observed; genotypic features did not reveal any clustering with either the clinical data or environmental origins. This study suggests that infections with Fusarium species might be truly opportunistic. The three most common species are F. falciforme and F. keratoplasticum (members of F. solani species complex), followed by F. oxysporum (F. oxysporum species complex).

Background Malaria transmission is highly heterogeneous, especially in low endemic countries, such as Cambodia. This results in geographical clusters of residual transmission in the dry, low transmission season, which can fuel the transmission to wider areas or populations during the wet season. A better understanding of spatial clustering of malaria can lead to a more efficient, targeted strategy to reduce malaria transmission. This study aims to evaluate the potential of the use of serological markers to define spatial patterns in malaria exposure. Methods Blood samples collected in a community-based randomized trial performed in 98 high endemic communities in Ratanakiri province, north-eastern Cambodia, were screened with a multiplex serological assay for five serological markers (three Plasmodium falciparum and two Plasmodium vivax). The antibody half-lives range from approximately six months until more than two years. Geographical heterogeneity in malaria transmission was examined using a spatial scan statistic on serology, PCR prevalence and malaria incidence rate data. Furthermore, to identify behavioural patterns or intrinsic factors associated with malaria exposure (antibody levels), risk factor analyses were performed by using multivariable random effect logistic regression models. The serological outcomes were then compared to PCR prevalence and malaria incidence data. Results A total of 6502 samples from two surveys were screened in an area where the average parasite prevalence estimated by PCR among the selected villages is 3.4 %. High-risk malaria pockets were observed adjacent to the ‘Tonle San River’ and neighbouring Vietnam for all three sets of data (serology, PCR prevalence and malaria incidence rates). The main risk factors for all P. falciparum antigens and P. vivax MSP1.19 are age, ethnicity and staying overnight at the plot hut. Conclusion It is possible to identify similar malaria pockets of higher malaria transmission together with the potential risk factors by using serology instead of PCR prevalence or malaria incidence data. In north-eastern Cambodia, the serological markers show that malaria transmission occurs mainly in adults staying overnight in plot huts in the field. Pf.GLURP.R2 showed a shrinking pocket of malaria transmission over time, and Pf.MSP1.19, CSP, PvAMA1 were also informative for current infection to a lesser extent. Therefore, serology could contribute in future research. However, further in-depth research in selecting the best combination of antigens is required. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12936-016-1558-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Background Soil-transmitted helminthiasis affects more than a billion people in the world and accounts for a global burden of 5.1 million disability-adjusted life years. The objectives of this study were (i) to map and predict the risk of soil-transmitted helminth infections among school-aged children in Côte d’Ivoire; (ii) to estimate school-aged children population-adjusted risk; and (iii) to estimate annual needs for preventive chemotherapy. Methods In late 2011/early 2012, a cross-sectional survey was carried out among school-aged children in 92 localities of Côte d’Ivoire. Children provided a single stool sample that was subjected to duplicate Kato-Katz thick smears for the diagnosis of soil-transmitted helminths. A Bayesian geostatistical variable selection approach was employed to identify environmental and socioeconomic risk factors for soil-transmitted helminth infections. Bayesian kriging was used to predict soil-transmitted helminth infections on a grid of 1 × 1 km spatial resolution. The number of school-aged children infected with soil-transmitted helminths and the amount of doses needed for preventive chemotherapy according to World Health Organization guidelines were estimated. Results Parasitological data were available from 5246 children aged 5–16 years. Helminth infections with hookworm were predominant (17.2 %). Ascaris lumbricoides and Trichuris trichiura were rarely found; overall prevalences were 1.9 % and 1.2 %, respectively. Bayesian geostatistical variable selection identified rural setting for hookworm, soil acidity and soil moisture for A. lumbricoides, and rainfall coefficient of variation for T. trichiura as main predictors of infection. The estimated school-aged children population-adjusted risk of soil-transmitted helminth infection in Côte d’Ivoire is 15.5 % (95 % confidence interval: 14.2–17.0 %). We estimate that approximately 1.3 million doses of albendazole or mebendazole are required for school-based preventive chemotherapy, and we provide school-aged children-adjusted risk aggregated at health district level. Conclusion We provide the first soil-transmitted helminthiasis risk profile for entire Côte d’Ivoire, based on a robust Bayesian geostatistical framework. Our model-based estimates of treatment needs and risk maps on health district level may guide the national control program in spatial targeting of annual interventions. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s13071-016-1446-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Scientific Reports, 6, ISSN:2045-2322