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The World Bank Group (WBG) Country Partnership Framework (CPF) for Egypt forFY15-19 has been prepared at an important juncture in Egypt’s history to support transformational changes to the economic and social space. It builds on the Government of Egypt’s (GOE) medium-term strategy and national priorities for economic development, responds to client demands, and is informed by consultations with a broad array of stakeholders in Egypt. At the same time, the CPF proposes selective interventions in line with the development priorities of the Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Egypt, and draws on the WBG’s comparative advantage. This program will also seek to implement the new MENA Regional strategy, especially the pillars on renewing the social contract, supporting economic recovery, and promoting regional cooperation. The CPF supports a transformative program to renew the social contract to support private sector job creation, social inclusion, and enhanced governance. The WBG is moving towards more than doubling its lending program compared to the recent past, to a total of about $8 billion over FY15-19, of which an indicative amount of about $6 billion is requested by the authorities to come from IBRD and about $2 billion from IFC. The actual volume and pace of IBRD lending will dependon the implementation of the program, including the ability to address macroeconomic risks, choice of instruments and economic performance in the course of the CPF period, continued Government interest in IBRD financing, and on IBRD’s lending capacity and demands from other borrowers. Similarly, the actual investments by IFC and guarantees by MIGA during the CPF period will depend on improvements in macroeconomic stability and progress in investmentclimate reforms that would boost investor confidence and facilitate greater private sector participation.

Twenty years after the end of the war, Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH) has yet to achieve shared prosperity for its citizens and approach European living standards. The country has been at peace since the end of 1995, but its development model needs adjustment if it is to join the ranks of prosperous European economies. BiH has a disproportionately large public sector that dates back to Yugoslav times and has only been partly reformed since, and the constitutional arrangements under the Dayton and Washington Agreements had as their aim the cessation of war rather than the explicit goal of building a viable and efficient state. Financial inflows, particularly aid and remittances, have been fueling consumption-based economic growth. These inflows were important in post-war recovery, and propelled the country back to middle-income status. However, reaching high levels of income, creating prosperity and eliminating poverty will only happen if BiH shifts toward an economic model that builds on international integration, especially with the EU, BiH’s most important trading partner and anchor of institutional reform. BiH needs to rebalance its development model in two fundamental ways in order to succeed. First, it needs to unleash the potential of the private sector while reducing the footprint of the very large public sector. Second, the economy needs to shift from an inward focus driven by local consumption and imports to the potential of international integration through investments and exports. To achieve this country needs more (and larger) companies, vibrant small and medium sized enterprises and a business environment that allows them to grow and expand output, employment, and exports.

This background paper describes five different tools that can be used for the assessment of tax incentives by governments in low income countries’ (LICs). The first tool (an application of cost-benefit analysis) provides an overarching framework for assessment. Evaluations of the various costs and benefits of tax incentives are vital for informed decision making, but are rarely undertaken, partly because it can be a difficult exercise that is demanding in terms of data needs. The next three tools (tax expenditure assessment, corporate micro simulation models, and effective tax rate models) can be used as part of a comprehensive cost-benefit analysis, to shed light on particular aspects. Effective tax rate models shed light on the implications of tax parameters - including targeted tax incentives - on investment returns and help understand the implications of reform for expected investment outcomes. The document presents two tools for assessing the transparency and governance of tax incentives in LICs. These discuss principles in transparency and governance of tax incentives, and allow for benchmarking existing LIC practices against better alternatives.

This economy profile for Doing Business 2016 presents the 11 Doing Business indicators for South Sudan. To allow for useful comparison, the profile also provides data for other selected economies (comparator economies) for each indicator. Doing Business 2016 is the 13th edition in a series of annual reports measuring the regulations that enhance business activity and those that constrain it. Economies are ranked on their ease of doing business; for 2015 South Sudan ranks 187. A high ease of doing business ranking means the regulatory environment is more conducive to the starting and operation of a local firm. Doing Business presents quantitative indicators on business regulations and the protection of property rights that can be compared across 189 economies from Afghanistan to Zimbabwe and over time. Doing Business sheds light on how easy or difficult it is for a local entrepreneur to open and run a small to medium-size business when complying with relevant regulations. It measures and tracks changes in regulations affecting 11 areas in the life cycle of a business: starting a business, dealing with construction permits, getting electricity, registering property, getting credit, protecting minority investors, paying taxes, trading across borders, enforcing contracts, resolving insolvency and labor market regulation. The data in this report are current as of June 1, 2015 (except for the paying taxes indicators, which cover the period from January to December 2014).

The paper analyzes the design of simplified small business tax regimes in Eastern Europe and Central Asia and the impact of such regimes on small business tax compliance. Although many approaches for tax simplification exist, a general trend in the region is to offer small businesses the option to be taxed based on their turnover instead of net income. The study finds that many of the regimes in place are overly simplistic and neither take into account fairness considerations nor do they facilitate business growth and migration into the standard tax regime. Although revenue generation is not a main objective of such regimes, low revenue performance and the risk of system abuse by larger businesses should be issues of concern. More attention should therefore be devoted to improving the design of simplified regimes and monitoring their application. This will require in particular a more profound analysis of the economic situation and the tax compliance challenges in the small business segment and increased efforts to improve the quality of bookkeeping.

Between 2002 and 2012-13, most of the reduction in poverty was due to increased earnings, as opposed to higher employment or higher transfers. Although it is hard to be certain, increases in earnings are associated with: (i) a slow structural transformation away from agriculture and into industry and services that led to productivity increases; (ii) agglomeration around key urban areas that supported this structural transformation; (iii) domestic-driven growth, including public-sector investment that led to increases in labor demand, particularly in industry and services; and (iv) a commodity boom that led to higher labor earnings for agricultural workers in the context of lower agricultural employment. Sri Lanka’s has had impressive development gains but there are strong indications that drivers of past progress are not sustainable. Solid economic growth, strong poverty reduction, overcoming internal conflict, effecting a remarkable democratic transition in recent months, and overall strong human development outcomes are a track record that would make any country proud. However, the country’s inward looking growth model based on non-tradable sectors and domestic demand amplified by public investment cannot be expected to lead to sustained inclusive growth going forward. A systematic diagnostic points to fiscal, competitiveness, and inclusion challenges as well as cross-cutting governance and sustainability challenges as priority areas of focus for sustaining progress in ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity.

Fairness – and what governments can do about it – is at the forefront of economic and social debate all over the world. In MENA, this has been at the core of recent political transitions but has not been adequately addressed. This SDN explores how tax systems – a critical interface between the state and citizens – can play a role in meeting demands for greater economic fairness in MENA countries. The SDN finds that for countries with well-established non-hydrocarbon tax systems (mostly oil importers) reforms should focus on simplifying tax structures and introducing more progressivity of personal income taxes, broadening tax bases, and better designing and enforcing property taxes. Tax administration should be more efficient and user-friendly while simplifying tax regimes will reduce the scope for arbitrary implementation. MENA countries with less established non-hydrocarbon revenue systems can begin with a “starter pack” that includes introduction of low-rate value-added and corporate income taxes, excises, and property taxes while building up administrative capacity and taxation expertise together with plans for introducing a personal income tax. Across the region, effective communication, transparency, and constructive dialogue between the State and citizens are critical to the success of reforms.

Effective environmental and social risk management in development policy financing (DPF) is central to achieving the World Bank’s goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. If the World Bank is supporting far-reaching member country reforms that are intended to contribute to the twin goals, then it should seek to understand the impact of those reforms on the poor. It should also ensure that the country’s natural capital and long-term growth prospects will not be undermined. The objective of this learning product is therefore to assess the application of the elements of the World Bank operational policy (OP 8.60) governing DPF related to the implementation of the environmental and social risk management requirements of the policy, and identify lessons learned and good practices. The focus of the study is on Bank actions, policies, procedures, and guidance for environmental and social risk management, based largely on a desk-based portfolio review of a large, random sample of development policy operations (DPOs), complemented by assessment of other relevant documents, and interviews with key stakeholders. This approach requires the Bank to determine whether specific policies supported by a DPO are likely to have significant poverty and social or environmental effects. The Bank emphasized the potential of OP 8.60 to promote positive environmental and social development from the time the policy was approved in 2004.

Colombia has made impressive strides in reducing poverty and promoting shared prosperity during the last decade. Extreme poverty fell from 17.7 percent in 2002 to 8.1 percent in 2014, while total poverty (including moderate poverty) fell from 49.7 percent in 2002 to 29.5 percent in 2014. The decline implies that 6.2 million people left poverty in the period. The multidimensional poverty rate, which takes into account education, health, labor, childcare, and housing, has also experienced a remarkable decline from 49 percent in 2003 to 21.9 percent in 2014. The number of multidimensional poor declined by 9.8 million. Shared prosperity indicators followed a similar trend, especially after the second half of the decade. Between 2008 and 2013, the income per capita of the bottom 40 percent of Colombians grew at an average rate of 6.6 percent, significantly higher than the national average rate of 4.1 percent for the same period. Economic growth that led to job creation has been the main driver of poverty reduction and shared prosperity gains. The economy sustained an average GDP growth of 4.4 percent during the 2000s, almost 2 percentage points higher than the previous decade. For the period 2002-2013, economic growth explains 73 percent of the reduction in extreme poverty and 84 percent of the reduction in total poverty. Moreover, price stability, and in particular stable food prices contribute to poverty outcomes. As in the case of poverty reduction, labor income growth is the main determinant of shared prosperity in recent years in Colombia. Labor income represents at least fifty percent of income growth for the poorest 10 percent of the population, and up to 70 percent for those in the fourth decile, in the period 2008-2013. This evidence highlights the importance of high growth and low inflation for achieving the World Bank’s twin goals in Colombia.

The Country Policy and Institutional Assessment (CPIA) Africa report describes the progress African countries are making on strengthening the quality of their policies and institutions. Some of the results from this report include: The overall quality of policies and institutions in countries in Sub-Saharan Africa was unchanged in 2014, but there was much variation in performance across countries. More than half the countries in the region saw a change in their policy environment: 10 countries experienced an improvement in their overall CPIA score, and an equal number saw a deterioration. There were divergent trends across policy clusters. Economic management weekend on the back of continuing fiscal policy slippage, as the sharp drop in commodity prices underscored weaknesses in the fiscal framework of several of the regions countries. By contrast, there was some strengthening in the governance cluster, with nine countries showing improvements in scores, more than twice the number of countries with declines. The greatest progress in this cluster was in the quality of budgetary and financial management.

Integration of knowledge with lending is an enduring theme in World Bank strategies at the corporate and country levels. It rests on the widely shared proposition that Bank lending instruments could be more relevant and produce better results if they incorporate key analytical, country level knowledge. To be successful, development interventions must be informed by evidence, and evidence comes from knowledge. This is the idea behind Bank as a ‘solutions bank,’ integrating financial instruments and knowledge products into ‘development solutions’ that deliver results. A recent Independent Evaluation Group (IEG) evaluation suggests that the Bank’s broad economic and sector work and technical assistance strongly inform Bank lending strategies (IEG 2008). PERs, for the purpose of this learning product, are identified as Bank knowledge products with a specific reference in their titles as Public Expenditure Review, whether they are multi-sector or single sector public expenditure reviews. They also include other analytical documents which deal with public expenditure issues, be they public finance reviews, studies of specific expenditure and debt issues, and even Country Economic Memoranda (CEMs) with a special focus on public expenditures. This broad definition should capture much (though not all) of the public expenditure-related analytical work at the Bank. Arguably, efficiency and allocation issues important in the design of DPOs and the reforms they support can only be addressed by such integrative, not partial or silo-type knowledge of specific subsector expenditures (e.g., tertiary education expenditure review).

This article provides a description and analysis of the impact of tax reforms enacted in Colombia is presented from 1990-2012 in the behavior of fiscal deficits, illustrating the effects on total collection and its relation to inequality and informality. The work is theoretical type - reflective and was based on a documentary and descriptive research, supported both specialized and text reports and official figures. The results indicate that tax reforms are incidental to the problems of government funding negatively influencing inequality and informality alternatives. En este artículo se presenta una descripción y análisis de la incidencia de las reformas tributarias promulgadas en Colombia desde 1990 hasta 2012 en el comportamiento del déficit fiscal, ilustrando los efectos en el recaudo total y su relación con la desigualdad e informalidad laboral. El trabajo es de tipo teórico – reflexivo y se fundamentó en una investigación documental y descriptiva, apoyada tanto en textos especializados como informes y cifras oficiales. Los resultados obtenidos señalan que las reformas tributarias son alternativas circunstanciales a los problemas de financiamiento del gobierno influyendo de forma negativa en la desigualdad e informalidad.

This paper studies optimal dynamic tax policy under the threat of political reform. A policy will be reformed ex post if a large enough political coalition supports reform; thus, credible policies are those that will continue to attract enough political support in the future. If the only credible reform threat is to fully equalize consumption, we find that optimal marginal capital taxes are U-shaped, so that savings are subsidized for the middle class but are taxed for the poor and rich. If ex post the government may strategically propose a reform other than full equalization in order to secure additional political support, then optimal capital taxes are instead progressive throughout the income distribution.

This report examines the experiences of four European countries that have had large house-price declines in recent years. In particular, it examines the experiences of Denmark, Ireland, the Netherlands, and Spain—four countries in which the house-price cycle has been especially large and that share a similar institutional environment (a common monetary policy and the EU’s institutional framework)—with a view to exploring how policies can best support economic recovery in the wake of a house-price bust. The paper draws on and synthesizes related Selected Issues papers that are being or have been drafted as part of the 2014 Article IV consultations with these countries. These countries’ experiences share similarities, but also important differences. Shocks to house prices, unemployment, and bank balance sheets were most severe in Ireland and Spain, reflecting in part a higher amplitude of residential construction. However, the boom- bust cycle has, together with other shocks, left all four countries facing significant output gaps, as well as elevated levels of private-sector debt that pose headwinds for growth. Promoting recovery following a house-price bust requires a multi-pronged strategy. Large house-price busts can leave countries facing wide output gaps, a highly indebted private sector, and weaker bank balance sheets. Addressing these problems simultaneously can be challenging, as efforts often involve trade-offs (e.g., faster deleveraging can widen output gaps). A careful and multi-pronged strategy is thus required to minimize trade-offs and accelerate sustainable recovery. Important progress has been made in this regard in all four countries.

This paper examines the development of taxation in Sweden from 1862 to 2013. The examination covers six key aspects of the Swedish tax system: the taxation of labor income, capital income, consumption, inheritance and gift, wealth and real estate. The importance of these taxes varied greatly over time and Sweden increasingly relied on broad-based taxes (such as income taxes and general consumption taxes) and taxes that were less visible to the public (such as payroll taxes and social security contributions). The tax-to-GDP ratio was initially low and relatively stable, but from the 1930s, the ratio increased sharply for 50 years. Towards the end of the period, the tax-to-GDP ratio declined significantly. The analysis is based on a project conducted at the Research Institute of Industrial Economics (IFN) and provides both a unique length and breadth of the development of a national tax system.

The total social benefits of college education exceed the private benefits because the government receives a share of the monetary returns in the form of income taxes. We study the policy implications of this fiscal externality in an optimal dynamic tax framework. Using a variational approach we derive a formula for the revenue effect of an increase in college education subsidies and for the excess burden of income taxation caused by the college margin. We also show how the optimal nonlinear income tax problem is altered by the college margin. Our modeling assumptions are strongly guided by the recent structural labor literature on college education. The model incorporates multidimensional heterogeneity, idiosyncratic risk and borrowing constraints. The model matches key empirical results on college enrollment patterns, returns to education and enrollment elasticities. Quantitatively, we find that a marginal increase in college subsidies in the US is at least 70 percent self-financing through the net-present value increase in future tax revenue. When targeting this increase to children in the lowest parental income tercile, it is even up to 165 percent self-financing. The excess burden of income taxation is only slightly altered by the college margin and therefore the optimal Mirrleesian income tax schedule is barely affected as well, in particular if subsidies are set at their optimal level.

Considerando que transformações no sistema tributário indicam processos de construção do Estado, o presente trabalho dirige-se aos seguintes problemas: quais os determinantes sociais e políticos do sistema tributário paraguaio desde a transição democrática, 1989? Qual a influência dos principais setores econômicos? Por que tem sido particularmente difícil extrair impostos das elites privadas no país? De forma a responder tais questões, o trabalho está organizado da seguinte maneira. Primeiro, traz uma periodização da construção do Estado no Paraguai a fim de contextualizar o processo em andamento. Segundo, apresenta indicadores para ilustrar a conjuntura socioeconômica, institucional e fiscal do país. E terceiro, analisa a trajetória das reformas tributárias implementadas no Paraguai desde 1989 a partir de categorias da literatura de sociologia fiscal. O estudo sugere a existência de estruturas de dependência de trajetória no sistema tributário paraguaio, conformadas pela ação política de elites agrárias com alto grau de coesão e dominância. Essas elites têm conseguido bloquear reformas que possibilitariam transformações em termos de capacidade e progressividade do sistema tributário, além de perfurar sua universalidade. Assuming that changes in the tax system indicate state-building processes, this paper addresses the following questions: what are the social and political determinants of the Paraguayan tax system since the beginning of the democratic transition in 1989? What is the influence of the country’s main economic sectors? Why have state authorities in Paraguay been so unsuccessful to impose taxes on its private elites? To best answer these questions, the study is organized as follows. First, it provides a periodization of state-building in Paraguay so as to contextualize the ongoing process. Second, it illustrates the country’s socioeconomic, institutional and fiscal situation through the display of indicators. Third, it draws upon scholarship on fiscal sociology to provide analysis of the trajectory of tax reforms implemented in Paraguay since 1989. The study suggests the existence of a path dependent tax structure that was shaped by political action of highly cohesive and dominant agrarian elites. These elites have been able to veto reforms that would allow changes in levels of tax capacity and tax progressivity, besides having perforated tax universality.

This is the tenth year that the paying taxes indicator has been part of the World Bank Doing Business project. The journey over the period of the study has been an eventful and interesting one and the economic backdrop continues to present a challenging environment for governments as they consider their future fiscal policies. Globalization, the march of technological change, changing demographic patterns and the persistent challenges that continue around climate change and the environment all come together to generate a turbulent mix of issues which have a significant impact on fiscal policy and the associated tax systems. Against this backdrop, this year the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) has put forward proposals for changing the international tax rules to modernize them for today s globalized business and to address concerns over base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS). It is apparent that these proposals are already changing the way some tax authorities apply existing rules, leading to new and increased uncertainty for business, at least in the short term. Alongside all of this however there are two simple, mutually supportive objectives for governments; to ensure that there are sufficient public revenues for the future, to lay a foundation for sustained improvements in productivity, while at the same time incentivising investment and economic growth. This year the authors have also focused more on the compliance aspects of the information that authors collect through the study. Stable tax systems and strong tax administrations are important for businesses, helping them to operate in an environment where the tax treatment of transactions is predictable, and where governments operate transparently. The paying taxes study provides an unrivalled global database which supports an ongoing research program.

This paper discusses Jordan’s Fifth Review Under the Stand-by Arrangement, Request for Waivers of Nonobservance of Performance Criterion (PC) and Applicability of PC, Modification of PC, and Rephasing of Access. Program performance in 2014 is broadly on track. The end-September PC on the central government primary deficit is estimated to have been met, but the PC on the combined public sector deficit is likely to have been missed owing to a shortfall in gas flows from Egypt. International reserves continued to over-perform through September. The IMF staff supports the completion of the fifth review and the related purchase.

This is the eleventh edition of the Kenya Economic Update. The special focus of this update examines the structural factors underpinning the poor performance of the manufacturing sector. Drawing on recent firm-level data from the 2010 Industrial Census and the 2013 Enterprise Survey. It investigates the extent to which the sector's lack of dynamism reflects problems in Kenya's business environment, which compares poorly to regional neighbors' on several manufacturing-relevant dimensions. The report has four main messages: First, Kenya begins 2015 in a sound economic position. After growing an estimated 5.4 percent in 2014, its economy is poised to be among the fastest growing in the region, with growth projected at 6.0 percent in 2015, 6.6 percent in 2016, and 7.0 percent in 2017. Second, the external sector remains weak and vulnerable, as import growth continue to outpace export growth and short-term flows finance the current account deficit. The large deficit points to underlying structural weaknesses in Kenya's economy, which need to be addressed. Third, Kenya needs to increase the competitiveness of the manufacturing sector so that it can grow, export, and create much-needed jobs. As a share of GDP, Kenya's manufacturing sector has been stagnant in recent years, and it has lost international market share; lastly, the weak business environmentis a key constraint for the manufacturing sector. Obstacles to doing business affect this sector more than many others because manufacturing needs access to capital for investments, infrastructure to import inputs and export and distribute finished products, affordable and reliable electricity to produce, labor to man operations, and fair and streamlined regulations and trade policies that allow firms to compete.

This paper addresses the problem of the normative evaluation of income tax systems and income tax reforms. While most of the existing criteria, framed in the utilitarian tradition, are uniquely based on information about individual incomes, this paper, building upon the opportunity egalitarian theory, proposes new equity criteria which take into account also the socio-economic characteristics of individuals. Suitable dominance conditions that can be used to rank alternative tax systems are derived by means of an axiomatic approach. Moreover, the theoretical results are used to assess the redistributive effects of an hypothetical tax reform in Romania through a microsimulation analysis.

This impact evaluation reviews the investment climate (IC) reform programs implemented by the World Bank Group (WBG) in Burkina Faso, Liberia, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, and South Sudan. It follows a study carried out in 2011 across the same countries. The purpose of the evaluation is to update, expand, and deepen the initial analysis within the framework of the earlier study, in order to gain a better understanding of the impact and sustainability of the IC reform activities implemented by the WBG. The evaluation covers a total of 25 IC-related projects implemented by the WBG in the five countries since the mid-2000s. The evaluation consists of three main elements, namely: a review of the outcomes achieved by the IC programs; an analysis of how IC reforms translate into impacts that is into tangible benefits for private firms and for the economy as a whole; and an assessment of the sustainability of IC reforms. The result is a significant improvement in the overall quality of the business environment in the five countries. This report is structured as follows: section one gives introduction. Section two provides an overview of the context in which the WBG programs were implemented, with a short presentation of the salient features of the five countries; section three briefly reviews the activities undertaken by each WBG program; section four analyzes the outcomes of the IC reform programs, with a review of the reforms supported, of the influence of these reforms on the business environment, and of the private sectors perceptions of IC reforms; section five reviews in detail the impact of IC reform programs, providing estimates of both direct impacts (cost savings) and indirect impacts (changes in enterprise formation and formalization, investment, and employment); section six analyzes the sustainability of IC reforms, with respect to both current and prospective sustainability and with an analysis of the main factors influencing sustainability; and finally, section seven summarizes the key findings of the evaluation.

This paper is published as Chapter 7 of Handbook of Microsimulation Modelling edited by Cathal O’Donoghue, and issued in the series Contributions to Economic Analysis by Emerald Publishing Group. The purpose of the paper is to provide a detailed discussion in relation to the development of the field of labour supply focused microsimulation models and methodological choices. The paper identifies three methodologies for modelling labour supply • The Reduced Form Approach • The Structural “Marginalist” Approach • The Random Utility Maximisation Approach The paper considers issues associated with the reliability of structural models relative to (ex-post) experimental or quasi-experimental analysis. Recognising however the need to undertake ex-ante analysis, it questions, whether there are alternatives to structural models and how can we evaluate structural models and how they are compared with other approaches. The paper then describes approaches to utilising these models for policy simulation in terms of producing and interpreting simulation outcomes, outlining an extensive literature of policy analyses utilising the approach. Also labour supply is not only central to modelling behavioural response but also modelling optimal tax-benefit systems, with a focus on a computational approach, given some of the challenges of the theoretical approach. Combining labour supply results with welfare functions enables the social evaluation of policy simulations. Combining welfare functions and labour supply functions, the chapter then identifies how to model socially optimal income taxation.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Iceland’s government, elected in 2013, is conducting a general review of its tax policy with a view toward making it more efficient and less distortionary.1 To this end, it has targeted VAT reform as a priority to become more reliant on consumption rather than income taxation. The narrow base and wide gap between the very high 25.5 percent main VAT rate and lower rate of 7 percent distort economic behavior and encourage tax arbitrage, evasion and lobbying. The efficiency of the Icelandic VAT is thus currently well below the European and OECD averages. To address this situation, the government plans in the near term to broaden the base by eliminating exemptions, raising the lower rate, and reducing the top rate. In the medium term, the government targets a single-rate system. To offset the potentially inflationary effects of VAT reform and reduce price distortions, the government is considering repealing the commodity tax and reviewing the trade regime for agriculture. It may also seek to increase social benefits for low-income households most affected by the VAT increases. These measures are all in accord with recommendations made by two previous IMF missions in 2010 and 2011. This mission reiterates its previous recommendations that Iceland should in the near term: (1) eliminate exemptions at least for tourism, transport, sports and culture; (2) limit VAT refunds to local government to services that could be outsourced; (3) double the lower rate to 14 percent; (4) reduce the top rate as revenue permits, depending on base broadening; and (5) in the longer term, move to a single VAT rate of about 21 percent. In addition, this report makes the following major recommendations: • Consider at least doubling the VAT threshold to ISK 2,000,000 (about USD 17,850 or EUR 12,900). A higher threshold will ease administration, allowing limited RSK resources to be focused on the large taxpayers who generate most VAT revenue. • Fully tax all sales and leasing of commercial buildings, as well as first sales of new residential buildings. While materials and construction activities are subject to VAT, sale of buildings has been exempt. This has created pressure for special refund schemes for builders to recoup their input VAT. Taxing commercial buildings and rent will remove this necessity and prevent cascading, while taxing first residential sales will broaden the VAT base to include housing consumption. • Eliminate special VAT refund schemes for buses, and domestic boats and aircraft, as well as CO2 tax refunds for rental car imports. These schemes have been encouraged by the exemption of passenger transport, and by the anomalous taxation of car rental services at the top rate. Taxing transportation will remove the need for these accommodations and level the playing field for car rental companies. • Repeal the commodity tax on building products, appliances and electronics. This will help offset the one-off inflationary effects of VAT reform and remove price distortions on these goods, which having neither inelastic demand nor negative externalities do not meet the criteria for special excise taxation. • If the sugar tax portion of the commodity tax is retained, conduct a study to ensure that the price increase it imposes on sweetened products is sufficient to discourage their consumption. Alternatively, repeal the sugar tax and move sweetened products to the top VAT rate.

KEY ISSUES Context. Guatemala’s economy has performed solidly since the 2008–09 crisis. Output has converged to potential, inflation is under control, and macroeconomic policies remain prudent. However, risks to the outlook are tilted downwards, while buffers are modest and space for counter-cyclical policies is thin. Long-term inclusive growth is constrained by low investment in physical and human capital, institutional weaknesses, and lack of security. Near-term policies are broadly appropriate. With the output gap closed, the broadly neutral fiscal stance is adequate. The monetary stance is slightly expansionary, but inflation is at the bottom of the target range. The authorities should stand ready to tighten monetary policy if inflationary pressures re-emerge. Fiscal sustainability should be enhanced over the medium term. Though the debt-to- GDP ratio remains moderate, the ability to implement counter-cyclical fiscal policies is limited, not least by Guatemala’s high government debt-to-revenue ratio. Debt stabilization requires moderate tightening of the budgetary stance over the medium term. The emphasis should be on revenue mobilization, given the overall low level of spending. Consolidating gains from the 2012 tax reform, which has so far proved disappointing, will be critical. Efforts to upgrade the monetary and exchange policy framework should continue. Anchoring low and stable inflation will require measures to bolster monetary policy transmission, including by expanding exchange rate flexibility. This should provide an additional shock absorber and reduce incentives for dollarization. It would also establish the inflation target as the undisputed primary objective of the central bank. Further strengthening of the financial system is necessary. The 2014 FSAP update found that Guatemala has made significant progress in financial regulation and that the banking system appears to be generally sound. However, efforts are still needed to improve consolidated supervision and the regulation of off-shore banks. The time is also ripe for a phased move to Basel III standards. Structural reforms are vital to achieving long-term inclusive growth. Paving the way towards high, inclusive growth will depend upon raising the low tax-to-GDP ratio to support priority public spending, thereby addressing critical social and developmental needs.

This paper explores how corporate income tax reform can help Japan increase investment and boost potential growth. Using international and Japan-specific empirical estimates of corporate tax elasticities, investment is predicted to expand by around 0.4 percent for each point of rate reduction. International consensus estimates suggest further that between 10 and 30 percent of the static revenue loss could be recovered in the long run through dynamic scoring, although Japan’s offset may be closer to the lower bound. Compensating fiscal measures are necessary in light of Japan’s tight fiscal constraints. The scope for base broadening in the corporate income tax is found to be limited and some forms of base broadening will undo positive investment effects of a rate cut. Alternative revenue sources include higher consumption and property taxes. A gradual approach toward lowering tax rates mitigates windfall gains and reduces short-run revenue costs. An incremental allowance-for-corporate-equity system could boost investment with limited fiscal costs in the short run.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation highlights that economic growth in Spain has resumed, and unemployment is falling. Exporters are gaining market share, and the current account is in surplus for the first time in decades. Financial conditions have improved sharply, with sovereign yields at record lows. Business investment is rebounding strongly and private consumption has also started to recover owing to improved employment prospects and rising confidence. Executive Directors have welcomed the improving Spanish economy. They have stressed that labor market reform should be accompanied by product and service market liberalization to maximize the gains to growth and jobs.

This Selected Issues paper describes the current tax system in Bhutan and suggests options for tax policy reform. Though significant hydropower revenues are expected in the medium term as major projects come on-stream, reforms to the existing tax system in the interim will generate fiscal room and prevent recourse to domestic debt to finance development needs. Key reforms include reducing tax exemptions in the near term and introduction of value-added tax in the medium term. The paper also analyzes the adequacy of international reserves in Bhutan using a customized risk-weighted metric. The results indicate that Bhutan’s reserve levels are ample.

Recent financial crises in Europe as well as the periodic battles in the U.S. over the debt ceiling point to the importance of fiscal discipline among developed countries. This paper develops an open economy model, calibrated to the U.S. and a subset of the EMU, to evaluate the impact of various permanent tax changes. The first set of experiments considers a targeted one percentage point reduction in the government deficit-to-GDP ratio through raising one of : the consumption tax, the labor income tax, or the capital income tax. In terms of welfare, the consumption tax is found to be the least costly of the tax increases. A second set of experiments looks at deficit-neutral tax changes : partially replacing the capital income tax with either a higher labor income tax or higher consumption tax ; and partially replacing the labor income tax with an increased consumption tax. Reducing reliance on capital income taxation is welfare-enhancing, although it leads to short term losses. Reducing labor income taxation improves international competitiveness and is welfare-improving.

This 2014 Article IV Consultation on the Republic of San Marino highlights global crisis and tense relations with Italy, which triggered a 30 percent GDP contraction since 2008 and a sea change in San Marino’s off-shore banking model. High liquidity in the system allowed banks to withstand the shock to deposits. Cassa di Risparmio della Repubblica di San Marino, the largest bank, has required 13 percent of GDP in public support. The deep recession and bank recapitalization costs are weighing heavily on public finances.

This paper examines the development and role of the real estate taxation in Sweden during the period between 1862 and 2010. Real estate has historically been taxed at both the local and state levels. The importance of real estate taxation in Sweden is nevertheless difficult to assess directly because of the limited availability of data and the specific construction of the local tax system after 1920. The real estate tax initially aimed to provide municipalities with a stable tax base; however, its importance in this respect has diminished over time. After the tax reform of 1990–1991 in Sweden, real estate was taxed exclusively at the national level, generating tax revenue of approximately one percent of GDP. Further, in 2008, part of the tax was transformed to a “local fee”.

This paper describes the evolution of capital income taxation in Sweden between 1862 and 2013, including the taxation of corporate profits, dividends, capital gains, interest income, and wealth taxation. To illustrate this evolution, we present annual time-series data regarding the marginal effective tax rates on capital income (METR) for a marginal investment financed with new share issues, retained earnings or debt. The METR is low and stable and does not exceed five percent until World War I, when it begins to drift somewhat upward and vary depending on the source of finance. The outbreak of World War II begins a period during which the magnitude and variation of the METR sharply increase. The METR peaks during the 1970s and 1980s and often exceeds 100 percent. The 1990–1991 tax reform and lower rates of inflation reduce the magnitude and variation of the METR, which varies between 15 and 35 percent at the end of the period examined.

Using a Mortensen-Pissarides search-and-matching framework, this paper investigates the importance of search frictions in determining the welfare and distributional effects of tax reforms that re-allocate the tax burden from capital to labour income. Calibrating the model to the UK economy, we find that the tax reforms are Pareto improving but increase inequality in the long run, despite welfare losses for at least one segment of the population in the short run. The results are robust to the variations in the relative bargaining power of workers and different specifications of unemployment benefit. But the welfare gains are higher for all agents if the relative bargaining power of workers is reduced or we assume that unemployment benefit depends on past wages.

This paper addresses the problem of the normative evaluation of income tax systems and income tax reforms. While most of the existing criteria, framed in the utilitarian tradition, are uniquely based on information about individual incomes, this paper, building upon the opportunity egalitarian theory, proposes new equity criteria which take into account also the socio-economic characteristics of individuals. Suitable dominance conditions that can be used to rank alternative tax systems are derived by means of an axiomatic approach. Moreover, the theoretical results are used to assess the redistributive effects of an hypothetical tax reform in Romania through a microsimulation analysis.

The rates of value added tax (VAT) have recently changed in the Czech Republic, and I simulate the impact of these reforms. They are an example of changes in indirect taxes that change the prices of goods and services, to which households can respond by adjusting their expenditures. I first estimate the behavioural response of consumers to price changes in the Czech Republic by applying a consumer demand model of the quadratic almost ideal system (QUAIDS) on the basis of the Czech Statistical Office household expenditure and price data for the period from 2001 to 2011. I derive estimates of own- and cross-price and income elasticities for individual households. I then use these elasticities to estimate the impact of the changes in VAT rates that were proposed or implemented between 2011 and 2013, on households' quantity demanded and government revenues. One of the main findings is that the estimated increases in government revenues that take the consumer responses into account are more than a quarter lower than the estimates that use the static simulation.

This paper describes the evolution of capital income taxation, including corporate, dividend, interest, capital gains and wealth taxation, in Sweden between 1862 and 2010. To illustrate the evolution, we present annual time-series data on the marginal effective tax rates on capital income (METR) for a marginal investment financed with new share issues, retained earnings or debt. Tax tables covering the period are presented. These data are unique in their consistency, thoroughness and time span covered. The METR is low, is stable and does not exceed five percent until World War I, when it starts to drift somewhat upward and vary depending on the source of finance. The outbreak of World War II starts a period when the magnitude and variation of the METR sharply increases. The METR peaks during the 1970s and 1980s and often exceeds 100 percent. The 1990–1991 tax reform and lower inflation reduce the magnitude and variation of the METR. The METR varies between 15 and 40 percent at the end of the examined period.

This report’s starting point is thus to acknowledge that despite Sweden’s many virtues, there are areas in which it can do better, and the task has been to identify those areas, focusing particularly on the quality of the investment climate and competitiveness. This has been done in two main ways. First, by looking at areas of the business environment captured by databases compiled in the World Bank Group’s Global Indicators Group—Doing Business, Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) Regulations, and Women, Business and the Law. And second, by examining other critical areas where there is a large body of data, knowledge and insight that casts relevant light on several key policy challenges facing the country in coming years. In the paragraphs that follow we present a summary of the report’s main conclusions.

This thesis deals with the comparison of tax reforms during the financial and economic crisis in the old and new EU countries. My main objective is to compare the reforms implemented in individual states during the financial and economic crisis and its impact on the tax quota and tax mix. The first part deals with the causes and development of the financial and economic crisis. In the second chapter is a description of the optimal tax system and history of the tax reforms. The final chapter describes the various changes and reforms in EU countries, the development of their tax quota, tax mix, the government expenditure to GDP ratio, the government debt to GDP ratio and the impact of certain changes to the amount of taxation on labor.

Excise duties are an important source of government revenue and their rates change relatively often in the Czech Republic. Reforms of excise duties change the prices of goods, a change to which households respond by adjusting their expenditures. I use detailed Czech Statistical Office data and estimates of own- and cross-price and income elasticities for individual households to create a microeconomic simulation model that enables me to simulate the impact of changes in excise duties on households' demands. I show the distributional impact of current excise duties and then I simulate the impact of hypothetical increases of 10 per cent in each of them. I further simulate impact of certain approved or proposed changes in excise duties including the unsuccessful 2012 proposal to introduce an excise duty on wine.

Although Hungary and Iceland suffered a similar fall in GDP, their respective governments decided to follow different strategies of adjustment. Each country cut spending according to different priorities. Moreover, the Hungarian government implemented a flat tax reform, while the Icelandic government replaced the previous flat tax system with a progressive structure. As a result, Iceland met the objectives of the IMF program, while worsening economic conditions forced Hungary to ask for additional external help. In terms of income distribution, social transfers contributed to reducing inequality in Iceland but not in Hungary, while the different tax strategies operated in contrary ways.

This paper discusses important tax policy issues facing developing countries today. It views tax policy from both the mac- roeconomic perspective, which focuses on broad questions such as the level and composition of tax revenue, and the microeconomic perspective, which focuses on certain design aspects of selected major taxes, such as the personal income tax, the corporate income tax, the value-added tax, excises, and import tariffs. It provides a re- view of the role of tax incentives in these countries, and identifies some policy challenges posed by the globalization of the world economy.

Durante el periodo 2000 a 2013 en Colombia se han aprobado siete reformas tributarias, que tuvieron como objetivo el aumento de los ingresos tributarios para asegurar así el equilibrio de las finanzas públicas a corto y mediano plazo, si bien las diversas reformas tributarias han logrado incrementar los ingresos del gobierno, los efectos de cada una han sido transitorios, lo que ha obligado a realizar una nueva reforma. Dentro de este marco se desarrolla el presente trabajo, que tiene como objetivo, analizar los cambios al Impuesto de Renta y Complementarios introducidos por las reformas tributarias durante el periodo 2000 a 2013 en Colombia, para lo cual, se desarrolla en cuatro momentos: En el primero, se establecen las reformas tributarias implementadas en Colombia a partir del año 2000 a 2013. En el segundo, se identifican los cambios al Impuesto de Renta y Complementarios hechos en cada una de las reformas tributarias. En el tercero, se comparan los cambios que las reformas han hecho al Impuesto de Renta y Complementarios durante estos mismos años. Y en el cuarto, se valora el efecto producido por dichos cambios al Impuesto de Renta y Complementarios. During the period 2000-2013 in Colombia have been approved seven reforms tax , which aimed at the increase in tax revenue and ensure the balance of public finances in the short and medium term , although the various tax reforms have been able to increase revenues government , the effects of each have been transient , which has forced make a new reform. Within this framework, this paper develops , whose , to analyze the changes to Income Tax and Complementary introduced by the tax reforms during the period 2000-2013 in Colombia , for which it is developed in four stages : In the first, the tax reforms implemented are set Colombia from 2000 to 2013. Then, identify changes to income tax and Complementary events in each of the tax reforms. In the third, the changes that have made reforms compared to Complementary Income Tax and during these same years. And in the fourth , the effect of these changes is assessed to tax Income and Supplemental . Pregrado

This paper presents annual Swedish time-series data on the top marginal tax wedge and marginal tax wedges on labor income for a low-, average- and high-income earners for the period 1862 to 2013. The tax wedges were initially low and the tax system proportional. The tax wedges began to increase during World War I. The increase accelerated during World War II and through the post-war period. In the 1970s, the top marginal tax wedge was occasionally as high as 90 percent. The main explanations for this development were temporary crises that led to permanent tax increases, the expansion of the public sector and distributional ambitions, bracket creep and the introduction of employer-paid social security contributions. The 1990–1991 tax reform represents the beginning of a new and continuing period of decreasing marginal tax wedges.

The external preconditions and internal factors that determine the need to review approaches to tax policy of Ukraine are investigated. The recommendations for reformation of the tax system and single social contribution in Ukraine are suggested., Исследованы внешние предпосылки и внутренние факторы, обусловливающие необходимость пересмотра подходов к налоговой политики в Украине. Разработаны рекомендации по реформированию налоговой системы и единого социального взноса в Украине.

The paper discusses the economic developments and policies in Sri Lanka in recent years. Substantial adjustments in energy prices and operational and financial reforms have helped to improve the performance of state owned enterprises (SOEs) and have reduced the burden on the budget and the banking system. Despite challenging global and domestic market conditions, overall soundness of the financial sector has improved with higher levels of capital, liquidity, and healthy earnings. The Sri Lankan economy is expected to return to a high growth trajectory, though conditional on recovery in external demand.