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A probabilistic method is described for optimizing the depth profile and operational entrance regime of navigation channels in sea areas exposed to waves and/or tides. In addition, a method is presented for improving the accuracy of the water level and wave predictions which are required in practice to maintain the optimal entrance regime. Because of the probabilistic nature of the design method, the accuracy of these predictions can be used as a parameter in the channel depth design. This enables the design to be tuned to the practical limitations of the operational use of the channel.

The determination of the required depth of approach channels to harbours is a problem of great concern. Nonetheless, there are no sophisticated design methods. In this paper, a design method is described which overcomes many objections to previous methods. Using a probabilistic approach, spatial and temporal changes of the depth-determining factors can easily be incorporated into the final design. Furthermore, since a probabilistic approach enables the quantification of uncertainties, both the safety level for the use of the channel and the accessibility of the port can directly be related to the channel depth. This feature allows the channel depth to be optimized from an economical point of view. The proposed method is illustrated by a case study.