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The ITCT-Lagrangian-2K4 (Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation) experiment was conceived with an aim to quantify the effects of photochemistry and mixing on the transformation of air masses in the free troposphere away from emissions. To this end, attempts were made to intercept and sample air masses several times during their journey across the North Atlantic using four aircraft based in New Hampshire (USA), Faial (Azores) and Creil (France). This article begins by describing forecasts from two Lagrangian models that were used to direct the aircraft into target air masses. A novel technique then identifies Lagrangian matches between flight segments. Two independent searches are conducted: for Lagrangian model matches and for pairs of whole air samples with matching hydrocarbon fingerprints. The information is filtered further by searching for matching hydrocarbon samples that are linked by matching trajectories. The quality of these "coincident matches" is assessed using temperature, humidity and tracer observations. The technique pulls out five clear Lagrangian cases covering a variety of situations and these are examined in detail. The matching trajectories and hydrocarbon fingerprints are shown, and the downwind minus upwind differences in tracers are discussed. Copyright 2006 by the American Geophysical Union.

The heat wave in late June of 2021 (PNW21) set new temperature records in the Pacific Northwest (PNW). In Lytton the highest temperature ever recorded in Canada was measured. Several studies have already explored this extreme event in detail, however, here we compare the atmospheric air mass transport and heating processes associated with this heat wave with the 34 other most extreme heat events in the same region during the period 1960–2021, using a long backtracking time of 25 days. We found significant differences in the heat waves. During PNW21 most of the air was coming from the Philippine Sea, with more than 40% of the air located south of 15°N, and anomalous advection of sensible and latent heat from the Tropics was the dominant cause of PNW21. The latent heat was efficiently converted into sensible heat by precipitation, which was unique, as most other extremes experienced net diabatic cooling. Plain Language Summary: At the end of June in 2021 a heat wave occurred over the Pacific Northwest (PNW) and led to catastrophic damage in the region, notably the destruction of the town of Lytton by a wild fire 1 day after a new temperature record for Canada was set there. Here we look at where the air during this event was coming from and compare the atmospheric mass transport to 34 other extreme heat events in this region. We found that during the heat wave in June 2021 most of the air was coming from the Philippine Sea where it took up large amounts of heat and moisture. This source region is deeper in the Tropics than for all other extreme events. At the same time, the Philippine Sea was anomalously warm. Thus, the air was warmer and moister than for all the other extreme events already 3 weeks before reaching the PNW. The energy associated with the high tropical moisture content was efficiently converted into heat by precipitation along the Meiyu‐Baiu front—a unique process not found for any other extreme heat event. Key Points: The air causing the heat wave in late June 2021 (PNW21) came from deep in the Tropics, more south and west compared to other eventsThree weeks prior to the event, the air was warmer and moister, indicating that advection of heat from the Tropics was an important driverCondensation in a warm conveyor belt caused heating for PNW21, while most other extreme events showed overall diabatic cooling [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Oral health care is a necessary and critical component of health care for pregnant women, but its importance is often overlooked by clinicians. Pregnant women who are low-income also find it particularly difficult to access care. This analytic essay summarizes oral health coverage for pregnant women under various types of health insurance coverage, including Medicaid, the Children's Health Insurance Program, and coverage options available under the Affordable Care Act. We hope this information will help clinicians better understand the importance of oral health care during pregnancy and the range of coverage options that may be available to their patients., Author(s): Hindi E. Stohl [sup.1] , Amy Chen [sup.2] Author Affiliations: (1) UCLA David Geffen School of Medicine, Director of Perinatology, Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, 0000 0001 0157 6501, grid.239844.0, , [...]

In the fall of 2011, iodine-131 (131I) was detected at several radionuclide monitoring stations in central Europe. After investigation, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) was informed by Hungarian authorities that 131I was released from the Institute of Isotopes Ltd. in Budapest, Hungary. It was reported that a total activity of 342 GBq of 131I was emitted between 8 September and 16 November 2011. In this study, we use the ambient concentration measurements of 131I to determine the location of the release as well as its magnitude and temporal variation. As the location of the release and an estimate of the source strength became eventually known, this accident represents a realistic test case for inversion models. For our source reconstruction, we use no prior knowledge. Instead, we estimate the source location and emission variation using only the available 131I measurements. Subsequently, we use the partial information about the source term available from the Hungarian authorities for validation of our results. For the source determination, we first perform backward runs of atmospheric transport models and obtain source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) matrices for each grid cell of our study domain. We use two dispersion models, FLEXPART and Hysplit, driven with meteorological analysis data from the global forecast system (GFS) and from European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) weather forecast models. Second, we use a recently developed inverse method, least-squares with adaptive prior covariance (LS-APC), to determine the 131I emissions and their temporal variation from the measurements and computed SRS matrices. For each grid cell of our simulation domain, we evaluate the probability that the release was generated in that cell using Bayesian model selection. The model selection procedure also provides information about the most suitable dispersion model for the source term reconstruction. Third, we select the most probable location of the release with its associated source term and perform a forward model simulation to study the consequences of the iodine release. Results of these procedures are compared with the known release location and reported information about its time variation. We find that our algorithm could successfully locate the actual release site. The estimated release period is also in agreement with the values reported by IAEA and the reported total released activity of 342 GBq is within the 99 % confidence interval of the posterior distribution of our most likely model.

Ice-nucleating particles (INPs) active at modest supercooling (e.g. −8 °C; INP−8) can transform clouds from liquid to mixed phase, even at very small number concentrations (−3). Over the course of 15 months, we found very similar patterns in weekly concentrations of INP−8 in PM10 (median = 1.7 m−3, maximum = 10.1 m−3) and weekly amounts of rainfall (median = 28 mm, maximum = 153 mm) at Birkenes, southern Norway. Most INP−8 were probably aerosolised locally by the impact of raindrops on plant, litter and soil surfaces. Major snowfall and heavy rain onto snow-covered ground were not mirrored by enhanced numbers of INP−8. Further, transport model calculations for large (> 4 m−3) and small (−3) numbers of INP−8 revealed that potential source regions likely to provide precipitation to southern Norway were associated with large numbers of INP−8. The proportion of land cover and land use type in potential source regions was similar for large and small numbers of INP−8. In PM2. 5 we found consistently about half as many INP−8 as in PM10. From mid-May to mid-September, INP−8 correlated positively with the fungal spore markers arabitol and mannitol, suggesting that some fraction of INP−8 during that period may consist of fungal spores. In the future, warmer winters with more rain instead of snow may enhance airborne concentrations of INP−8 during the cold season in southern Norway and in other regions with a similar climate.

Icelandic dust sources are known to be highly active, yet there exist few model simulations of Icelandic dust that could be used to assess its impacts on the environment. We here present estimates of dust emission and transport in Iceland over 27 years (1990–2016) based on FLEXDUST and FLEXPART simulations and meteorological re-analysis data. Simulations for the year 2012 based on high-resolution operational meteorological analyses are used for model evaluation based on PM2. 5 and PM10 observations in Iceland. For stations in Reykjavik, we find that the spring period is well predicted by the model, while dust events in late fall and early winter are overpredicted. Six years of dust concentrations observed at Stórhöfði (Heimaey) show that the model predicts concentrations of the same order of magnitude as observations and timing of modelled and observed dust peaks agrees well. Average annual dust emission is 4.3 ± 0.8 Tg during the 27 years of simulation. Fifty percent of all dust from Iceland is on average emitted in just 25 days of the year, demonstrating the importance of a few strong events for annual total dust emissions. Annual dust emission as well as transport patterns correlate only weakly to the North Atlantic Oscillation. Deposition amounts in remote regions (Svalbard and Greenland) vary from year to year. Only limited dust amounts reach the upper Greenland Ice Sheet, but considerable dust amounts are deposited on Icelandic glaciers and can impact melt rates there. Approximately 34 % of the annual dust emission is deposited in Iceland itself. Most dust (58 %), however, is deposited in the ocean and may strongly influence marine ecosystems.

This paper describes the results of an inverse modeling study for the determination of the source term of the radionuclides 134Cs, 137Cs and 131I released after the Chernobyl accident. The accident occurred on 26 April 1986 in the Former Soviet Union and released about 1019 Bq of radioactive materials that were transported as far away as the USA and Japan. Thereafter, several attempts to assess the magnitude of the emissions were made that were based on the knowledge of the core inventory and the levels of the spent fuel. More recently, when modeling tools were further developed, inverse modeling techniques were applied to the Chernobyl case for source term quantification. However, because radioactivity is a sensitive topic for the public and attracts a lot of attention, high-quality measurements, which are essential for inverse modeling, were not made available except for a few sparse activity concentration measurements far from the source and far from the main direction of the radioactive fallout. For the first time, we apply Bayesian inversion of the Chernobyl source term using not only activity concentrations but also deposition measurements from the most recent public data set. These observations refer to a data rescue attempt that started more than 10 years ago, with a final goal to provide available measurements to anyone interested. In regards to our inverse modeling results, emissions of 134Cs were estimated to be 80 PBq or 30–50 % higher than what was previously published. From the released amount of 134Cs, about 70 PBq were deposited all over Europe. Similar to 134Cs, emissions of 137Cs were estimated as 86 PBq, on the same order as previously reported results. Finally, 131I emissions of 1365 PBq were found, which are about 10 % less than the prior total releases. The inversion pushes the injection heights of the three radionuclides to higher altitudes (up to about 3 km) than previously assumed (≈ 2.2 km) in order to better match both concentration and deposition observations over Europe. The results of the present inversion were confirmed using an independent Eulerian model, for which deposition patterns were also improved when using the estimated posterior releases. Although the independent model tends to underestimate deposition in countries that are not in the main direction of the plume, it reproduces country levels of deposition very efficiently. The results were also tested for robustness against different setups of the inversion through sensitivity runs. The source term data from this study are publicly available.

Aerosol indirect effects have potentially large impacts on the Arctic Ocean surface energy budget, but model estimates of regional-scale aerosol indirect effects are highly uncertain and poorly validated by observations. Here we demonstrate a new way to quantitatively estimate aerosol indirect effects on a regional scale from remote sensing observations. In this study, we focus on nighttime, optically thin, predominantly liquid clouds. The method is based on differences in cloud physical and microphysical characteristics in carefully selected clean, average, and aerosol-impacted conditions. The cloud subset of focus covers just ∼ 5 % of cloudy Arctic Ocean regions, warming the Arctic Ocean surface by ∼ 1–1.4 W m−2 regionally during polar night. However, within this cloud subset, aerosol and cloud conditions can be determined with high confidence using CALIPSO and CloudSat data and model output. This cloud subset is generally susceptible to aerosols, with a polar nighttime estimated maximum regionally integrated indirect cooling effect of ∼ −0.11 W m−2 at the Arctic sea ice surface (∼ 8 % of the clean background cloud effect), excluding cloud fraction changes. Aerosol presence is related to reduced precipitation, cloud thickness, and radar reflectivity, and in some cases, an increased likelihood of cloud presence in the liquid phase. These observations are inconsistent with a glaciation indirect effect and are consistent with either a deactivation effect or less-efficient secondary ice formation related to smaller liquid cloud droplets. However, this cloud subset shows large differences in surface and meteorological forcing in shallow and higher-altitude clouds and between sea ice and open-ocean regions. For example, optically thin, predominantly liquid clouds are much more likely to overlay another cloud over the open ocean, which may reduce aerosol indirect effects on the surface. Also, shallow clouds over open ocean do not appear to respond to aerosols as strongly as clouds over stratified sea ice environments, indicating a larger influence of meteorological forcing over aerosol microphysics in these types of clouds over the rapidly changing Arctic Ocean.

A new, more physically based wet removal scheme for aerosols has been implemented in the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART. It uses three-dimensional cloud water fields from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) to determine cloud extent and distinguishes between in-cloud and below-cloud scavenging. The new in-cloud nucleation scavenging depends on cloud water phase (liquid, ice or mixed-phase), based on the aerosol's prescribed efficiency to serve as ice crystal nuclei and liquid water nuclei, respectively. The impaction scavenging scheme now parameterizes below-cloud removal as a function of aerosol particle size and precipitation type (snow or rain) and intensity.Sensitivity tests with the new scavenging scheme and comparisons with observational data were conducted for three distinct types of primary aerosols, which pose different challenges for modeling wet scavenging due to their differences in solubility, volatility and size distribution: (1) 137Cs released during the Fukushima nuclear accident attached mainly to highly soluble sulphate aerosol particles, (2) black carbon (BC) aerosol particles, and (3) mineral dust. Calculated e-folding lifetimes of accumulation mode aerosols for these three aerosol types were 11.7, 16.0, and 31.6 days respectively, when well mixed in the atmosphere. These are longer lifetimes than those obtained by the previous removal schem, and, for mineral dust in particular, primarily result from very slow in-cloud removal, which globally is the primary removal mechanism for these accumulation mode particles.Calculated e-folding lifetimes in FLEXPART also have a strong size dependence, with the longest lifetimes found for the accumulation-mode aerosols. For example, for dust particles emitted at the surface the lifetimes were 13.8 days for particles with 1 µm diameter and a few hours for 10 µm particles. A strong size dependence in below-cloud scavenging, combined with increased dry removal, is the primary reason for the shorter lifetimes of the larger particles. The most frequent removal is in-cloud scavenging (85 % of all scavenging events) but it occurs primarily in the free troposphere, while below-cloud removal is more frequent below 1000 m (52 % of all events) and can be important for the initial fate of species emitted at the surface, such as those examined here.For assumed realistic in-cloud removal efficiencies, both BC and sulphate have a slight overestimation of observed atmospheric concentrations (a factor of 1.6 and 1.2 respectively). However, this overestimation is largest close to the sources and thus appears more related to overestimated emissions rather than underestimated removal. The new aerosol wet removal scheme of FLEXPART incorporates more realistic information about clouds and aerosol properties and it compares better with both observed lifetimes and concentration than the old scheme.

Deposition of small amounts of airborne dust on glaciers causes positive radiative forcing and enhanced melting due to the reduction of surface albedo. To study the effects of dust deposition on the mass balance of Brúarjökull, an outlet glacier of the largest ice cap in Iceland, Vatnajökull, a study of dust deposition events in the year 2012 was carried out. The dust-mobilisation module FLEXDUST was used to calculate spatio-temporally resolved dust emissions from Iceland and the dispersion model FLEXPART was used to simulate atmospheric dust dispersion and deposition. We used albedo measurements at two automatic weather stations on Brúarjökull to evaluate the dust impacts. Both stations are situated in the accumulation area of the glacier, but the lower station is close to the equilibrium line. For this site ( ∼ 1210 m a.s.l.), the dispersion model produced 10 major dust deposition events and a total annual deposition of 20.5 g m−2. At the station located higher on the glacier ( ∼ 1525 m a.s.l.), the model produced nine dust events, with one single event causing ∼ 5 g m−2 of dust deposition and a total deposition of ∼ 10 g m−2 yr−1. The main dust source was found to be the Dyngjusandur floodplain north of Vatnajökull; northerly winds prevailed 80 % of the time at the lower station when dust events occurred. In all of the simulated dust events, a corresponding albedo drop was observed at the weather stations. The influence of the dust on the albedo was estimated using the regional climate model HIRHAM5 to simulate the albedo of a clean glacier surface without dust. By comparing the measured albedo to the modelled albedo, we determine the influence of dust events on the snow albedo and the surface energy balance. We estimate that the dust deposition caused an additional 1.1 m w.e. (water equivalent) of snowmelt (or 42 % of the 2.8 m w.e. total melt) compared to a hypothetical clean glacier surface at the lower station, and 0.6 m w.e. more melt (or 38 % of the 1.6 m w.e. melt in total) at the station located further upglacier. Our findings show that dust has a strong influence on the mass balance of glaciers in Iceland.

We present methane (CH4) flux estimates for 2005 to 2013 from a Bayesian inversion focusing on the high northern latitudes (north of 50° N). Our inversion is based on atmospheric transport modelled by the Lagrangian particle dispersion model FLEXPART and CH4 observations from 17 in situ and five discrete flask-sampling sites distributed over northern North America and Eurasia. CH4 fluxes are determined at monthly temporal resolution and on a variable grid with maximum resolution of 1° × 1°. Our inversion finds a CH4 source from the high northern latitudes of 82 to 84 Tg yr−1, constituting ∼ 15 % of the global total, compared to 64 to 68 Tg yr−1 (∼ 12 %) in the prior estimates. For northern North America, we estimate a mean source of 16.6 to 17.9 Tg yr−1, which is dominated by fluxes in the Hudson Bay Lowlands (HBL) and western Canada, specifically the province of Alberta. Our estimate for the HBL, of 2.7 to 3.4 Tg yr−1, is close to the prior estimate (which includes wetland fluxes from the land surface model, LPX-Bern) and to other independent inversion estimates. However, our estimate for Alberta, of 5.0 to 5.8 Tg yr−1, is significantly higher than the prior (which also includes anthropogenic sources from the EDGAR-4.2FT2010 inventory). Since the fluxes from this region persist throughout the winter, this may signify that the anthropogenic emissions are underestimated. For northern Eurasia, we find a mean source of 52.2 to 55.5 Tg yr−1, with a strong contribution from fluxes in the Western Siberian Lowlands (WSL) for which we estimate a source of 19.3 to 19.9 Tg yr−1. Over the 9-year inversion period, we find significant year-to-year variations in the fluxes, which in North America, and specifically in the HBL, appear to be driven at least in part by soil temperature, while in the WSL, the variability is more dependent on soil moisture. Moreover, we find significant positive trends in the CH4 fluxes in North America of 0.38 to 0.57 Tg yr−2, and northern Eurasia of 0.76 to 1.09 Tg yr−2. In North America, this could be due to an increase in soil temperature, while in North Eurasia, specifically Russia, the trend is likely due, at least in part, to an increase in anthropogenic sources.

The offline FLEXible PARTicle (FLEXPART) stochastic dispersion model is currently a community model used by many scientists. Here, an alternative FLEXPART model version has been developed and tailored to use with the meteorological output data generated by the CMIP5-version of the Norwegian Earth System Model (NorESM1-M). The atmospheric component of the NorESM1-M is based on the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM4); hence, this FLEXPART version could be widely applicable and it provides a new advanced tool to directly analyse and diagnose atmospheric transport properties of the state-of-the-art climate model NorESM in a reliable way. The adaptation of FLEXPART to NorESM required new routines to read meteorological fields, new post-processing routines to obtain the vertical velocity in the FLEXPART coordinate system, and other changes. These are described in detail in this paper. To validate the model, several tests were performed that offered the possibility to investigate some aspects of offline global dispersion modelling. First, a comprehensive comparison was made between the tracer transport from several point sources around the globe calculated online by the transport scheme embedded in CAM4 and the FLEXPART model applied offline on output data. The comparison allowed investigating several aspects of the transport schemes including the approximation introduced by using an offline dispersion model with the need to transform the vertical coordinate system, the influence on the model results of the sub-grid-scale parameterisations of convection and boundary layer height and the possible advantage entailed in using a numerically non-diffusive Lagrangian particle solver. Subsequently, a comparison between the reference FLEXPART model and the FLEXPART–NorESM/CAM version was performed to compare the well-mixed state of the atmosphere in a 1-year global simulation. The two model versions use different methods to obtain the vertical velocity but no significant difference in the results was found. However, for both model versions there was some degradation in the well-mixed state after 1 year of simulation with the build-up of a bias and an increased scatter. Finally, the capability of the new combined modelling system in producing realistic, backward-in-time transport statistics was evaluated calculating the average footprint over a 5-year period for several measurement locations and by comparing the results with those obtained with the reference FLEXPART model driven by re-analysis fields. This comparison confirmed the effectiveness of the combined modelling system FLEXPART with NorESM in producing realistic transport statistics.

Estimation of pollutant releases into the atmosphere is an important problem in the environmental sciences. It is typically formalized as an inverse problem using a linear model that can explain observable quantities (e.g., concentrations or deposition values) as a product of the source-receptor sensitivity (SRS) matrix obtained from an atmospheric transport model multiplied by the unknown source-term vector. Since this problem is typically ill-posed, current state-of-the-art methods are based on regularization of the problem and solution of a formulated optimization problem. This procedure depends on manual settings of uncertainties that are often very poorly quantified, effectively making them tuning parameters. We formulate a probabilistic model, that has the same maximum likelihood solution as the conventional method using pre-specified uncertainties. Replacement of the maximum likelihood solution by full Bayesian estimation also allows estimation of all tuning parameters from the measurements. The estimation procedure is based on the variational Bayes approximation which is evaluated by an iterative algorithm. The resulting method is thus very similar to the conventional approach, but with the possibility to also estimate all tuning parameters from the observations. The proposed algorithm is tested and compared with the standard methods on data from the European Tracer Experiment (ETEX) where advantages of the new method are demonstrated. A MATLAB implementation of the proposed algorithm is available for download.

Increasing wildfire activities in the mountainous western US may present a challenge for the region to attain a recently revised ozone air quality standard in summer. Using current Eulerian chemical transport models to examine the wildfire ozone influences is difficult due to uncertainties in fire emissions, inadequate model chemistry, and resolution. Here we quantify the wildfire influence on the ozone variability, trends, and number of high MDA8 (daily maximum 8 h average) ozone days over this region in summers (June, July, and August) 1989–2010 using a new approach. We define a fire index using retroplumes (plumes of back-trajectory particles) computed by a Lagrangian dispersion model (FLEXPART) and develop statistical models based on the fire index and meteorological parameters to interpret MDA8 ozone concentrations measured at 13 Intermountain West surface sites. We show that the statistical models are able to capture the ozone enhancements by wildfires and give results with some features different from the GEOS-Chem Eulerian chemical transport model. Wildfires enhance the Intermountain West regional summer mean MDA8 ozone by 0.3–1.5 ppbv (daily episodic enhancements reach 10–20 ppbv at individual sites) with large interannual variability, which are strongly correlated with the total MDA8 ozone. We find large fire impacts on the number of exceedance days; for the 13 CASTNet sites, 31 % of the summer days with MDA8 ozone exceeding 70 ppbv would not occur in the absence of wildfires.