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Background: Glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) is used to diagnose type 2 diabetes (T2D) and assess glycemic control in patients with diabetes. Previous genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 18 HbA1c-associated genetic variants. These variants proved to be classifiable by their likely biological action as erythrocytic (also associated with erythrocyte traits) or glycemic (associated with other glucose-related traits). In this study, we tested the hypotheses that, in a very large scale GWAS, we would identify more genetic variants associated with HbA1c and that HbA1c variants implicated in erythrocytic biology would affect the diagnostic accuracy of HbA1c. We therefore expanded the number of HbA1c-associated loci and tested the effect of genetic risk-scores comprised of erythrocytic or glycemic variants on incident diabetes prediction and on prevalent diabetes screening performance. Throughout this multiancestry study, we kept a focus on interancestry differences in HbA1c genetics performance that might influence race-ancestry differences in health outcomes., Methods & Findings: Using genome-wide association meta-analyses in up to 159,940 individuals from 82 cohorts of European, African, East Asian, and South Asian ancestry, we identified 60 common genetic variants associated with HbA1c. We classified variants as implicated in glycemic, erythrocytic, or unclassified biology and tested whether additive genetic scores of erythrocytic variants (GS-E) or glycemic variants (GS-G) were associated with higher T2D incidence in multiethnic longitudinal cohorts (N = 33,241). Nineteen glycemic and 22 erythrocytic variants were associated with HbA1c at genome-wide significance. GS-G was associated with higher T2D risk (incidence OR = 1.05, 95% CI 1.04-1.06, per HbA1c-raising allele, p = 3 × 10-29); whereas GS-E was not (OR = 1.00, 95% CI 0.99-1.01, p = 0.60). In Europeans and Asians, erythrocytic variants in aggregate had only modest effects on the diagnostic accuracy of HbA1c. Yet, in African Americans, the X-linked G6PD G202A variant (T-allele frequency 11%) was associated with an absolute decrease in HbA1c of 0.81%-units (95% CI 0.66-0.96) per allele in hemizygous men, and 0.68%-units (95% CI 0.38-0.97) in homozygous women. The G6PD variant may cause approximately 2% (N = 0.65 million, 95% CI 0.55-0.74) of African American adults with T2D to remain undiagnosed when screened with HbA1c. Limitations include the smaller sample sizes for non-European ancestries and the inability to classify approximately one-third of the variants. Further studies in large multiethnic cohorts with HbA1c, glycemic, and erythrocytic traits are required to better determine the biological action of the unclassified variants., Conclusions: As G6PD deficiency can be clinically silent until illness strikes, we recommend investigation of the possible benefits of screening for the G6PD genotype along with using HbA1c to diagnose T2D in populations of African ancestry or groups where G6PD deficiency is common. Screening with direct glucose measurements, or genetically-informed HbA1c diagnostic thresholds in people with G6PD deficiency, may be required to avoid missed or delayed diagnoses.

Background/objectives: Fatness and fitness are associated with physical activity (PA) but less is known about the prospective associations of adiposity and muscle strength with PA. This study aimed to determine longitudinal associations of body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and grip strength (GS) with objectively measured PA., Subjects/methods: Data are from the UK Biobank study. At baseline (2006-2010), BMI, WC and GS were objectively measured. At follow-up (2013-2015), a sub-sample of 93 015 participants (52 161 women) wore a tri-axial accelerometer on the dominant wrist for 7 days. Linear regression was performed to investigate longitudinal associations of standardised BMI, WC and GS at baseline with moderate-to-vigorous PA (MVPA) and acceleration after a median 5.7-years follow-up (interquartile range: 4.9-6.5 years)., Results: Linear regression revealed strong inverse associations for BMI and WC, and positive associations for GS with follow-up PA; in women, MVPA ranges from lowest to highest quintiles of GS were 42-48 min day -1 in severely obese (BMI⩾35 kg m - 2 ), 52-57 min day -1 in obese (30⩽BMI<35 kg m - 2 ), 61-65 min day -1 in overweight (25⩽BMI<30 kg m - 2 ) and 69-75 min day -1 in normal weight (18.5⩽BMI<25 kg m -2 ). Follow-up MVPA was also lower in the lowest GS quintile (42-69 min day -1 ) compared with the highest GS quintile (48-75 min day -1 ) across BMI categories in women. The pattern of these associations was generally consistent for men, and in analyses using WC and mean acceleration as exposure and outcome, respectively., Conclusions: More pronounced obesity and poor strength at baseline independently predict lower activity levels at follow-up. Interventions and policies should aim to improve body composition and muscle strength to promote active living.

Background: Higher grip strength (GS) is associated with lower mortality risk. However, whether this association is independent of adiposity is uncertain. Objective: The purpose of this study was to examine the associations between GS, adiposity, and mortality. Design: The UK Biobank study is an ongoing prospective cohort of >0.5 million UK adults aged 40-69 y. Baseline data collection (2006-2010) included measurements of GS and adiposity indicators, including body mass index (BMI; in kg/m 2 ). Age- and sex-specific GS quintiles were used. BMI was classified according to clinical cutoffs. Results: Data from 403,199 participants were included in analyses. Over a median 7.0-y of follow-up, 8287 all-cause deaths occurred. The highest GS quintile had 32% (95% CI: 26%, 38%) and 25% (95% CI: 16%, 33%) lower all-cause mortality risks for men and women, respectively, compared with the lowest GS quintile, after adjustment for confounders and BMI. Obesity class II (BMI ≥35) was associated with a greater all-cause mortality risk. The highest GS quintile and obesity class II category showed relatively higher all-cause mortality hazards (not statistically significant in men) than the highest GS quintile and the normal weight category; however, the increased risk was relatively lower than the risk for the lowest GS quintile and obesity class II category. All-cause mortality risks were generally lower for obese but stronger individuals than for nonobese but weaker individuals. Similar patterns of associations were observed for cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions: Lower grip strength and excess adiposity are both independent predictors of higher mortality risk. The higher mortality risk associated with excess adiposity is attenuated, although not completely attenuated, by greater GS. Interventions and policies should focus on improving the muscular strength of the population regardless of their degree of adiposity., (© 2017 American Society for Nutrition.)

Purpose: Leisure screen time, including TV viewing, is associated with increased mortality risk. We estimated the all-cause mortality risk reductions associated with substituting leisure screen time with different discretionary physical activity types, and the change in mortality incidence associated with different substitution scenarios., Methods: A total of 423,659 UK Biobank participants, without stroke, myocardial infarction, or cancer history, were followed for 7.6 (1.4) yr, median (interquartile range [IQR]). They reported leisure screen time (TV watching and home computer use) and leisure/home activities, categorized as daily life activities (walking for pleasure, light do-it-yourself [DIY], and heavy DIY) and structured exercise (strenuous sports and other exercises). Isotemporal substitution modeling in Cox regression provided hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals) for all-cause mortality when substituting screen time (30 min·d) with different discretionary activity types of the same duration. Potential impact fractions estimated the proportional change in mortality incidence associated with different substitution scenarios., Results: During 3,202,105 person-years of follow-up, 8928 participants died. Each 30-min·d difference in screen time was associated with lower mortality hazard when modeling substitution of screen time by an equal amount of daily life activities (0.95, 0.94-0.97), as well as structured exercise (0.87, 0.84-0.90). Reallocations from screen time into specific activity subtypes suggested different reductions in mortality hazard: walking for pleasure (0.95, 0.92-0.98), light DIY (0.97, 0.94-1.00), heavy DIY (0.93, 0.90-0.96), strenuous sports (0.87, 0.79-0.95), and other exercises (0.88, 0.84-0.91). The lowest hazard estimates were found when modeling replacement of TV viewing. Potential impact fractions ranged from 4.3% (30-min·d substitution of screen time into light DIY) to 14.9% (TV viewing into strenuous sports)., Conclusion: Substantial public health benefits could be gained by replacing small amounts of screen time with daily life activities and structured exercise. Daily life activities may provide feasible screen time alternatives, if structured exercise is initially too ambitious.

Background: The relationship between physical activity and muscular strength has not been examined in detail among older adults. The objective of this study was to examine the associations between physical activity and hand grip strength among adults aged ≥ 60 years., Methods: Using data from the UK Biobank study, we included 66 582 men and women with complete baseline data and 6599 with 4.5 years of follow-up data. We used multiple linear regression models to examine the cross-sectional, longitudinal and bidirectional associations between moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and grip strength, adjusting for potential confounding by age, sex, height, weight, health status, education level, smoking status, Townsend deprivation index and retirement status., Results: In cross-sectional analyses, grip strength and MVPA were linearly and positively associated with each other. Longitudinally, baseline MVPA was not associated with grip strength at follow-up {difference between quintile [Q] 5 and Q1 = 0.40 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.14, 0.94]kg}, whereas baseline grip strength was associated with MVPA at follow-up [Q5 vs Q1 = 7.15 (1.18, 13.12) min/day]. People who maintained/increased time spent in MVPA did not experience any benefit in grip strength [0.08 (-0.20, 0.37) kg] whereas those who increased their grip strength spent 3.69 (0.20, 7.17) min/day extra in MVPA., Conclusion: Promotion of strength-training activities may enable and maintain participation in regular physical activity among older adults., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the International Epidemiological Association.)

Background: Endometrial biopsies are undertaken in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding but the risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia is unclear., Objectives: To conduct a systematic literature review to establish the risk of endometrial cancer and atypical hyperplasia in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding., Search Strategy: Search of PubMed, Embase and the Cochrane Library from database inception to August 2015., Selection Criteria: Studies reporting rates of endometrial cancer and/or atypical hyperplasia in women with premenopausal abnormal uterine bleeding., Data Collection and Analysis: Data were independently extracted by two reviewers and cross-checked. For each outcome, the risk and a 95% CI were estimated using logistic regression with robust standard errors to account for clustering by study., Main Results: Sixty-five articles contributed to the analysis. Risk of endometrial cancer was 0.33% (95% CI 0.23-0.48%, n = 29 059; 97 cases) and risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia was 1.31% (95% CI 0.96-1.80, n = 15 772; 207 cases). Risk of endometrial cancer was lower in women with heavy menstrual bleeding (HMB) (0.11%, 95% CI 0.04-0.32%, n = 8352; 9 cases) compared with inter-menstrual bleeding (IMB) (0.52%, 95% CI 0.23-1.16%, n = 3109; 14 cases). Of five studies reporting the rate of atypical hyperplasia in women with HMB, none identified any cases., Conclusions: The risk of endometrial cancer or atypical hyperplasia in premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding is low. Premenopausal women with abnormal uterine bleeding should first undergo conventional medical management. Where this fails, the presence of IMB and older age may be indicators for further investigation. Further research into the risks associated with age and the cumulative risk of co-morbidities is needed., Tweetable Abstract: Contrary to practice, premenopausal women with heavy periods or inter-menstrual bleeding rarely require biopsy., (© 2016 The Authors BJOG An International Journal of Obstetrics and Gynaecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists.)

Insulin resistance is a key mediator of obesity-related cardiometabolic disease, yet the mechanisms underlying this link remain obscure. Using an integrative genomic approach, we identify 53 genomic regions associated with insulin resistance phenotypes (higher fasting insulin levels adjusted for BMI, lower HDL cholesterol levels and higher triglyceride levels) and provide evidence that their link with higher cardiometabolic risk is underpinned by an association with lower adipose mass in peripheral compartments. Using these 53 loci, we show a polygenic contribution to familial partial lipodystrophy type 1, a severe form of insulin resistance, and highlight shared molecular mechanisms in common/mild and rare/severe insulin resistance. Population-level genetic analyses combined with experiments in cellular models implicate CCDC92, DNAH10 and L3MBTL3 as previously unrecognized molecules influencing adipocyte differentiation. Our findings support the notion that limited storage capacity of peripheral adipose tissue is an important etiological component in insulin-resistant cardiometabolic disease and highlight genes and mechanisms underpinning this link.

Background/objectives: The cardiovascular benefit of increasing fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake following diagnosis of diabetes remains unknown. We aimed to describe how quantity and variety of F&V intake, and plasma vitamin C, change after diagnosis of type 2 diabetes and examine whether these changes are associated with improvements in cardiovascular risk factors., Subjects/methods: A total of 401 individuals with screen-detected diabetes from the ADDITION-Cambridge study were followed up over 5 years. F&V intake was assessed by food frequency questionnaire and plasma vitamin C at baseline, at 1 year and at 5 years. Linear mixed models were used to estimate associations of changes in quantity and variety of F&V intake, and plasma vitamin C, with cardiovascular risk factors and a clustered cardiometabolic risk score (CCMR), where a higher score indicates higher risk., Results: F&V intake increased in year 1 but decreased by year 5, whereas variety remained unchanged. Plasma vitamin C increased at 1 year and at 5 years. Each s.d. increase (250g between baseline and 1 year and 270g between 1 and 5 years) in F&V intake was associated with lower waist circumference (-0.92 (95% CI: -1.57, -0.27) cm), HbA 1c (-0.11 (-0.20, -0.03) %) and CCMR (-0.04 (-0.08, -0.01)) at 1 year and higher high-density lipoprotein (HDL)-cholesterol (0.04 (0.01, 0.06) mmol/l) at 5 years. Increased plasma vitamin C (per s.d., 22.5 μmol/l) was associated with higher HDL-cholesterol (0.04 (0.01, 0.06) mmol/l) and lower CCMR (-0.07 (-0.12, -0.03)) between 1 and 5 years., Conclusions: Increases in F&V quantity following diagnosis of diabetes are associated with lower cardiovascular risk factors. Health promotion interventions might highlight the importance of increasing, and maintaining increases in, F&V intake for improved cardiometabolic health in patients with diabetes., Competing Interests: None of the authors had a conflict of interest.

The relative risk of glucocorticoid-induced hyperglycaemia is poorly quantified. We undertook a meta-analysis to estimate the association between glucocorticoid treatment and hyperglycaemia, overall and separately in individuals with and without diabetes and underlying respiratory disease. We searched electronic databases for clinical trials of adults randomized to either glucocorticoid treatment or placebo. Eight articles comprising 2121 participants were identified. We performed a random effects meta-analysis to determine relative risks for the associations between glucocorticoid use and both hyperglycaemia and starting hypoglycaemic therapy. In all individuals, the relative risk of hyperglycaemia comparing glucocorticoid treatment with placebo was 1.72 [95% confidence interval (CI) 1.50-2.04; p < .001]. The relative risks in individuals with and those without diabetes were 2.10 (95% CI 0.92-5.02; p = .079) and 1.50 (95% CI 0.79-2.86; p = .22), respectively. In all individuals, the relative risk of hyperglycaemia requiring initiation of hypoglycaemic therapy, comparing glucocorticoid treatment with placebo, was 1.73 (95% CI 1.40-2.14; p < .001). In conclusion, glucocorticoid therapy increases the risk of hyperglycaemia in all individuals with underlying respiratory disease but not when diabetic status is analysed separately., (© 2016 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Background: Higher circulating levels of the branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs; i.e., isoleucine, leucine, and valine) are strongly associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk, but it is not known whether this association is causal. We undertook large-scale human genetic analyses to address this question., Methods and Findings: Genome-wide studies of BCAA levels in 16,596 individuals revealed five genomic regions associated at genome-wide levels of significance (p < 5 × 10-8). The strongest signal was 21 kb upstream of the PPM1K gene (beta in standard deviations [SDs] of leucine per allele = 0.08, p = 3.9 × 10-25), encoding an activator of the mitochondrial branched-chain alpha-ketoacid dehydrogenase (BCKD) responsible for the rate-limiting step in BCAA catabolism. In another analysis, in up to 47,877 cases of type 2 diabetes and 267,694 controls, a genetically predicted difference of 1 SD in amino acid level was associated with an odds ratio for type 2 diabetes of 1.44 (95% CI 1.26-1.65, p = 9.5 × 10-8) for isoleucine, 1.85 (95% CI 1.41-2.42, p = 7.3 × 10-6) for leucine, and 1.54 (95% CI 1.28-1.84, p = 4.2 × 10-6) for valine. Estimates were highly consistent with those from prospective observational studies of the association between BCAA levels and incident type 2 diabetes in a meta-analysis of 1,992 cases and 4,319 non-cases. Metabolome-wide association analyses of BCAA-raising alleles revealed high specificity to the BCAA pathway and an accumulation of metabolites upstream of branched-chain alpha-ketoacid oxidation, consistent with reduced BCKD activity. Limitations of this study are that, while the association of genetic variants appeared highly specific, the possibility of pleiotropic associations cannot be entirely excluded. Similar to other complex phenotypes, genetic scores used in the study captured a limited proportion of the heritability in BCAA levels. Therefore, it is possible that only some of the mechanisms that increase BCAA levels or affect BCAA metabolism are implicated in type 2 diabetes., Conclusions: Evidence from this large-scale human genetic and metabolomic study is consistent with a causal role of BCAA metabolism in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes., Competing Interests: CL receives a stipend as a specialty consulting editor for PLOS Medicine and serves on the journal's editorial board. MIM is a member of the Editorial Board of PLOS Medicine. MIM is a member of advisory boards for NovoNordisk and Pfizer. MIM received honoraria for speaking engagements: NovoNordisk, Pfizer, Eli Lilly. MIM receives research funding from: NovoNordisk, Pfizer, Eli Lilly, Takeda, Servier, Sanofi-Aventis, Boehringer Ingelheim, Janssen, Merck, Roche, Astra-Zeneca. EDK is an employee of Metabolon Inc., a fee-for-service metabolomics provider and received salary and stock options as compensation. IB and her spouse own stock in GlaxoSmithKline and Incyte Corporation. SB acts as an occasional paid statistical referee for PLOS Medicine, however had no reviewer role in this paper. The other authors report no conflict of interest relative to this study.

Background: Information about genetic and phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes is now widely available and is being incorporated into disease prevention programs. Whether such information motivates behavior change or has adverse effects is uncertain. We examined the effect of communicating an estimate of genetic or phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes in a parallel group, open, randomized controlled trial., Methods and Findings: We recruited 569 healthy middle-aged adults from the Fenland Study, an ongoing population-based, observational study in the east of England (Cambridgeshire, UK). We used a computer-generated random list to assign participants in blocks of six to receive either standard lifestyle advice alone (control group, n = 190) or in combination with a genetic (n = 189) or a phenotypic (n = 190) risk estimate for type 2 diabetes (intervention groups). After 8 wk, we measured the primary outcome, objectively measured physical activity (kJ/kg/day), and also measured several secondary outcomes (including self-reported diet, self-reported weight, worry, anxiety, and perceived risk). The study was powered to detect a between-group difference of 4.1 kJ/kg/d at follow-up. 557 (98%) participants completed the trial. There were no significant intervention effects on physical activity (difference in adjusted mean change from baseline: genetic risk group versus control group 0.85 kJ/kg/d (95% CI -2.07 to 3.77, p = 0.57); phenotypic risk group versus control group 1.32 (95% CI -1.61 to 4.25, p = 0.38); and genetic risk group versus phenotypic risk group -0.47 (95% CI -3.40 to 2.46, p = 0.75). No significant differences in self-reported diet, self-reported weight, worry, and anxiety were observed between trial groups. Estimates of perceived risk were significantly more accurate among those who received risk information than among those who did not. Key limitations include the recruitment of a sample that may not be representative of the UK population, use of self-reported secondary outcome measures, and a short follow-up period., Conclusions: In this study, we did not observe short-term changes in behavior associated with the communication of an estimate of genetic or phenotypic risk of type 2 diabetes. We also did not observe changes in worry or anxiety in the study population. Additional research is needed to investigate the conditions under which risk information might enhance preventive strategies. (Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN09650496; Date applied: April 4, 2011; Date assigned: June 10, 2011)., Trial Registration: The trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN09650496., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Three cross sectional studies suggest that neighbourhood greenspace may protect against incident diabetes. This study uses data from a longitudinal study with a large sample size to investigate the association between greenspace and the occurrence of incident diabetes over time., Methods: Data was from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer Norfolk, UK, cohort, recruitment 1993-2007 (N = 23,865). Neighbourhoods were defined as 800 m circular buffers around participants' home locations, according to their home postcode (zip code). Greenspace exposure was defined as the percentage of the home neighbourhood that was woodland, grassland, arable land, mountain, heath and bog, according to the UK Land Cover Map. Cox proportional hazards regression examined the association between neighbourhood greenspace exposure and incident diabetes. The population attributable fraction assessed the proportion of diabetes cases attributable to exposure to least green neighbourhoods. Mediation analysis assessed if physical activity explained associations between greenspace and diabetes. Interaction analysis was used to test for the modifying effect of rurality and socio-economic status on the relationship between greenspace and diabetes. Models were adjusted for known and hypothesised confounders., Results: The mean age of participants was 59 years at baseline and 55.1% were female. The mean follow-up time was 11.3 years. Individuals living in the greenest neighbourhood quartile had a 19% lower relative hazard of developing diabetes (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.67, 0.99; p = 0.035; linear trend p = 0.010). The hazard ratio remained similar (HR 0.81; 95% CI 0.65, 0.99; p = 0.042) after adjusting for age, sex, BMI, whether a parent had been diagnosed with diabetes and socio-economic status at the individual and neighbourhood level. A HR of 0.97 was attributed to the pathway through physical activity in a fully adjusted model, although this was non-significant (95% CI 0.88, 1.08; p = 0.603). The incidence of diabetes in the least green neighbourhoods (with 20% greenspace on average) would fall by 10.7% (95% CI -2.1%, 25.2%; p = 0.106) if they were as green as the average neighbourhood observed across the whole cohort (59% greenspace on average). There were no significant interactions between rurality or socio-economic status and level of greenspace., Conclusions: Greener home neighbourhoods may protect against risk of diabetes in older adults, although this study does not support a mediation role for physical activity. Causal mechanisms underlying the associations require further investigation.

Importance: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C)-lowering alleles in or near NPC1L1 or HMGCR, encoding the respective molecular targets of ezetimibe and statins, have previously been used as proxies to study the efficacy of these lipid-lowering drugs. Alleles near HMGCR are associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes, similar to the increased incidence of new-onset diabetes associated with statin treatment in randomized clinical trials. It is unknown whether alleles near NPC1L1 are associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes., Objective: To investigate whether LDL-C-lowering alleles in or near NPC1L1 and other genes encoding current or prospective molecular targets of lipid-lowering therapy (ie, HMGCR, PCSK9, ABCG5/G8, LDLR) are associated with the risk of type 2 diabetes., Design, Setting, and Participants: The associations with type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease of LDL-C-lowering genetic variants were investigated in meta-analyses of genetic association studies. Meta-analyses included 50 775 individuals with type 2 diabetes and 270 269 controls and 60 801 individuals with coronary artery disease and 123 504 controls. Data collection took place in Europe and the United States between 1991 and 2016., Exposures: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering alleles in or near NPC1L1, HMGCR, PCSK9, ABCG5/G8, and LDLR., Main Outcomes and Measures: Odds ratios (ORs) for type 2 diabetes and coronary artery disease., Results: Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol-lowering genetic variants at NPC1L1 were inversely associated with coronary artery disease (OR for a genetically predicted 1-mmol/L [38.7-mg/dL] reduction in LDL-C of 0.61 [95% CI, 0.42-0.88]; P = .008) and directly associated with type 2 diabetes (OR for a genetically predicted 1-mmol/L reduction in LDL-C of 2.42 [95% CI, 1.70-3.43]; P < .001). For PCSK9 genetic variants, the OR for type 2 diabetes per 1-mmol/L genetically predicted reduction in LDL-C was 1.19 (95% CI, 1.02-1.38; P = .03). For a given reduction in LDL-C, genetic variants were associated with a similar reduction in coronary artery disease risk (I2 = 0% for heterogeneity in genetic associations; P = .93). However, associations with type 2 diabetes were heterogeneous (I2 = 77.2%; P = .002), indicating gene-specific associations with metabolic risk of LDL-C-lowering alleles., Conclusions and Relevance: In this meta-analysis, exposure to LDL-C-lowering genetic variants in or near NPC1L1 and other genes was associated with a higher risk of type 2 diabetes. These data provide insights into potential adverse effects of LDL-C-lowering therapy.

Background: Intensive treatment (IT) of cardiovascular risk factors can halve mortality among people with established type 2 diabetes but the effects of treatment earlier in the disease trajectory are uncertain., Objective: To quantify the cost-effectiveness of intensive multifactorial treatment of screen-detected diabetes., Design: Pragmatic, multicentre, cluster-randomised, parallel-group trial., Setting: Three hundred and forty-three general practices in Denmark, the Netherlands, and Cambridge and Leicester, UK., Participants: Individuals aged 40-69 years with screen-detected diabetes., Interventions: Screening plus routine care (RC) according to national guidelines or IT comprising screening and promotion of target-driven intensive management (medication and promotion of healthy lifestyles) of hyperglycaemia, blood pressure and cholesterol., Main Outcome Measures: The primary end point was a composite of first cardiovascular event (cardiovascular mortality/morbidity, revascularisation and non-traumatic amputation) during a mean [standard deviation (SD)] follow-up of 5.3 (1.6) years. Secondary end points were (1) all-cause mortality; (2) microvascular outcomes (kidney function, retinopathy and peripheral neuropathy); and (3) patient-reported outcomes (health status, well-being, quality of life, treatment satisfaction). Economic analyses estimated mean costs (UK 2009/10 prices) and quality-adjusted life-years from an NHS perspective. We extrapolated data to 30 years using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study outcomes model [version 1.3; (©) Isis Innovation Ltd 2010; see www.dtu.ox.ac.uk/outcomesmodel (accessed 27 January 2016)]., Results: We included 3055 (RC, n = 1377; IT, n = 1678) of the 3057 recruited patients [mean (SD) age 60.3 (6.9) years] in intention-to-treat analyses. Prescription of glucose-lowering, antihypertensive and lipid-lowering medication increased in both groups, more so in the IT group than in the RC group. There were clinically important improvements in cardiovascular risk factors in both study groups. Modest but statistically significant differences between groups in reduction in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels, blood pressure and cholesterol favoured the IT group. The incidence of first cardiovascular event [IT 7.2%, 13.5 per 1000 person-years; RC 8.5%, 15.9 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio 0.83, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.65 to 1.05] and all-cause mortality (IT 6.2%, 11.6 per 1000 person-years; RC 6.7%, 12.5 per 1000 person-years; hazard ratio 0.91, 95% CI 0.69 to 1.21) did not differ between groups. At 5 years, albuminuria was present in 22.7% and 24.4% of participants in the IT and RC groups, respectively [odds ratio (OR) 0.87, 95% CI 0.72 to 1.07), retinopathy in 10.2% and 12.1%, respectively (OR 0.84, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.10), and neuropathy in 4.9% and 5.9% (OR 0.95, 95% CI 0.68 to 1.34), respectively. The estimated glomerular filtration rate increased between baseline and follow-up in both groups (IT 4.31 ml/minute; RC 6.44 ml/minute). Health status, well-being, diabetes-specific quality of life and treatment satisfaction did not differ between the groups. The intervention cost £981 per patient and was not cost-effective at costs ≥ £631 per patient., Conclusions: Compared with RC, IT was associated with modest increases in prescribed treatment, reduced levels of risk factors and non-significant reductions in cardiovascular events, microvascular complications and death over 5 years. IT did not adversely affect patient-reported outcomes. IT was not cost-effective but might be if delivered at a reduced cost. The lower than expected event rate, heterogeneity of intervention delivery between centres and improvements in general practice diabetes care limited the achievable differences in treatment between groups. Further follow-up to assess the legacy effects of early IT is warranted., Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00237549., Funding Details: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 20, No. 64. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Background: Whether and how n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) are related to type 2 diabetes (T2D) is debated. Objectively measured plasma PUFAs can help to clarify these associations., Methods and Findings: Plasma phospholipid PUFAs were measured by gas chromatography among 12,132 incident T2D cases and 15,919 subcohort participants in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct study across eight European countries. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled by random-effects meta-analysis. We also systematically reviewed published prospective studies on circulating PUFAs and T2D risk and pooled the quantitative evidence for comparison with results from EPIC-InterAct. In EPIC-InterAct, among long-chain n-3 PUFAs, α-linolenic acid (ALA) was inversely associated with T2D (HR per standard deviation [SD] 0.93; 95% CI 0.88-0.98), but eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) were not significantly associated. Among n-6 PUFAs, linoleic acid (LA) (0.80; 95% CI 0.77-0.83) and eicosadienoic acid (EDA) (0.89; 95% CI 0.85-0.94) were inversely related, and arachidonic acid (AA) was not significantly associated, while significant positive associations were observed with γ-linolenic acid (GLA), dihomo-GLA, docosatetraenoic acid (DTA), and docosapentaenoic acid (n6-DPA), with HRs between 1.13 to 1.46 per SD. These findings from EPIC-InterAct were broadly similar to comparative findings from summary estimates from up to nine studies including between 71 to 2,499 T2D cases. Limitations included potential residual confounding and the inability to distinguish between dietary and metabolic influences on plasma phospholipid PUFAs., Conclusions: These large-scale findings suggest an important inverse association of circulating plant-origin n-3 PUFA (ALA) but no convincing association of marine-derived n3 PUFAs (EPA and DHA) with T2D. Moreover, they highlight that the most abundant n6-PUFA (LA) is inversely associated with T2D. The detection of associations with previously less well-investigated PUFAs points to the importance of considering individual fatty acids rather than focusing on fatty acid class.

Regulatory authorities have indicated that new drugs to treat type 2 diabetes (T2D) should not be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Human genetics may be able to guide development of antidiabetic therapies by predicting cardiovascular and other health endpoints. We therefore investigated the association of variants in six genes that encode drug targets for obesity or T2D with a range of metabolic traits in up to 11,806 individuals by targeted exome sequencing and follow-up in 39,979 individuals by targeted genotyping, with additional in silico follow-up in consortia. We used these data to first compare associations of variants in genes encoding drug targets with the effects of pharmacological manipulation of those targets in clinical trials. We then tested the association of those variants with disease outcomes, including coronary heart disease, to predict cardiovascular safety of these agents. A low-frequency missense variant (Ala316Thr; rs10305492) in the gene encoding glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP1R), the target of GLP1R agonists, was associated with lower fasting glucose and T2D risk, consistent with GLP1R agonist therapies. The minor allele was also associated with protection against heart disease, thus providing evidence that GLP1R agonists are not likely to be associated with an unacceptable increase in cardiovascular risk. Our results provide an encouraging signal that these agents may be associated with benefit, a question currently being addressed in randomized controlled trials. Genetic variants associated with metabolic traits and multiple disease outcomes can be used to validate therapeutic targets at an early stage in the drug development process., (Copyright © 2016, American Association for the Advancement of Science.)

Physical activity declines during youth but most evidence reports on combined moderate and vigorous-intensity physical activity. We investigated how vigorous-intensity activity varies with age. Cross-sectional data from 24,025 participants (5.0-18.0 y; from 20 studies in 10 countries obtained 2008-2010) providing ≥ 1 day accelerometer data (International Children's Accelerometry Database (ICAD)). Linear regression was used to investigate age-related patterns in vigorous-intensity activity; models included age (exposure), adjustments for monitor wear-time and study. Moderate-intensity activity was examined for comparison. Interactions were used to investigate whether the age/vigorous-activity association differed by sex, weight status, ethnicity, maternal education and region. A 6.9% (95% CI 6.2, 7.5) relative reduction in mean vigorous-intensity activity with every year of age was observed; for moderate activity the relative reduction was 6.0% (5.6%, 6.4%). The age-related decrease in vigorous-intensity activity remained after adjustment for moderate activity. A larger age-related decrease in vigorous activity was observed for girls (- 10.7%) versus boys (- 2.9%), non-white (- 12.9% to - 9.4%) versus white individuals (- 6.1%), lowest maternal education (high school (- 2.0%)) versus college/university (ns) and for overweight/obese (- 6.1%) versus healthy-weight participants (- 8.1%). In addition to larger annual decreases in vigorous-intensity activity, overweight/obese individuals, girls and North Americans had comparatively lower average vigorous-intensity activity at 5.0-5.9 y. Age-related declines in vigorous-intensity activity during youth appear relatively greater than those of moderate activity. However, due to a higher baseline, absolute moderate-intensity activity decreases more than vigorous. Overweight/obese individuals, girls, and North Americans appear especially in need of vigorous-intensity activity promotion due to low levels at 5.0-5.9 y and larger negative annual differences.

Objective: Observational studies show an association between ferritin and type 2 diabetes (T2D), suggesting a role of high iron stores in T2D development. However, ferritin is influenced by factors other than iron stores, which is less the case for other biomarkers of iron metabolism. We investigated associations of ferritin, transferrin saturation (TSAT), serum iron, and transferrin with T2D incidence to clarify the role of iron in the pathogenesis of T2D., Research Design and Methods: The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-InterAct study includes 12,403 incident T2D cases and a representative subcohort of 16,154 individuals from a European cohort with 3.99 million person-years of follow-up. We studied the prospective association of ferritin, TSAT, serum iron, and transferrin with incident T2D in 11,052 cases and a random subcohort of 15,182 individuals and assessed whether these associations differed by subgroups of the population., Results: Higher levels of ferritin and transferrin were associated with a higher risk of T2D (hazard ratio [HR] [95% CI] in men and women, respectively: 1.07 [1.01-1.12] and 1.12 [1.05-1.19] per 100 μg/L higher ferritin level; 1.11 [1.00-1.24] and 1.22 [1.12-1.33] per 0.5 g/L higher transferrin level) after adjustment for age, center, BMI, physical activity, smoking status, education, hs-CRP, alanine aminotransferase, and γ-glutamyl transferase. Elevated TSAT (≥45% vs. <45%) was associated with a lower risk of T2D in women (0.68 [0.54-0.86]) but was not statistically significantly associated in men (0.90 [0.75-1.08]). Serum iron was not associated with T2D. The association of ferritin with T2D was stronger among leaner individuals (Pinteraction < 0.01)., Conclusions: The pattern of association of TSAT and transferrin with T2D suggests that the underlying relationship between iron stores and T2D is more complex than the simple link suggested by the association of ferritin with T2D., Competing Interests: Duality of Interest. P.W.F. has received funding from Novo Nordisk. No other potential conflicts of interest relevant to this article were reported., (© 2016 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.)

Background: The data regarding prospective associations between physical activity (PA) and adiposity in youth are inconsistent., Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate associations between baseline levels of objectively measured PA and changes in adiposity over 2.5 years from mid-to-late adolescence., Methods: This was an observational cohort study in 728 school students (43% boys) from Cambridgeshire, United Kingdom. Fat mass index (FMI, kg m(-2) ) was estimated at baseline (mean ± standard deviation age: 15 ± 0.3 years) and follow-up (17.5 ± 0.3 years) by anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance. Habitual PA was assessed at baseline by ≥3 d combined heart rate and movement sensing. Average daily PA energy expenditure (PAEE) and the time (min d(-1) ) spent in light, moderate and vigorous intensity PA (LPA, MPA and VPA, respectively) was estimated. Multilevel models were used to investigate associations between baseline PA and change in FMI (ΔFMI). Adjustment for baseline age, sex, follow-up duration, area-level socioeconomic status, season of PA assessment, sedentary time, energy intake and sleep duration was made; baseline FMI was also added in a second model., Results: FMI increased significantly over follow-up (0.6 ± 1.2 kg m(-2) , P < 0.001). Baseline PAEE and LPA positively predicted ΔFMI in overfat participants (P ≤ 0.030), as did VPA in initially normal fat participants (P ≤ 0.044). There were further positive associations between PAEE and ΔFMI in normal fat participants, and between MPA and ΔFMI in both fat groups, when adjusted for baseline FMI (P ≤ 0.024)., Conclusions: Baseline PAEE and its subcomponents were positively associated with small and unlikely clinically relevant increases in ΔFMI. These counter-intuitive findings may be explained by behavioural changes during the course of study follow-up., (© 2015 The Authors. Pediatric Obesity published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of World Obesity.)

Aims: To investigate the effect of short-term vitamin D supplementation on cardiometabolic outcomes among individuals with an elevated risk of diabetes., Methods: In a double-blind placebo-controlled randomized trial, 340 adults who had an elevated risk of type 2 diabetes (non-diabetic hyperglycaemia or positive diabetes risk score) were randomized to either placebo, 100,000 IU vitamin D2 (ergocalciferol) or 100,000 IU vitamin D3 (cholecalciferol), orally administered monthly for 4 months. The primary outcome was change in glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) between baseline and 4 months, adjusted for baseline. Secondary outcomes included: blood pressure; lipid levels; apolipoprotein levels; C-reactive protein levels; pulse wave velocity (PWV); anthropometric measures; and safety of the supplementation., Results: The mean [standard deviation (s.d.)] 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D]2 concentration increased from 5.2 (4.1) to 53.9 (18.5) nmol/l in the D2 group, and the mean (s.d.) 25(OH)D3 concentration increased from 45.8 (22.6) to 83.8 (22.7) nmol/l in the D3 group. There was no effect of vitamin D supplementation on HbA1c: D2 versus placebo: -0.05% [95% confidence interval (CI) -0.11, 0.02] or -0.51 mmol/mol (95% CI -1.16, 0.14; p = 0.13); D3 versus placebo: 0.02% (95% CI -0.04, 0.08) or 0.19 mmol/mol (95% CI -0.46, 0.83; p = 0.57). There were no clinically meaningful effects on secondary outcomes, except PWV [D2 versus placebo: -0.68 m/s (95% CI -1.31, -0.05); D3 versus placebo -0.73 m/s (95% CI -1.42, -0.03)]. No important safety issues were identified., Conclusions: Short-term supplementation with vitamin D2 or D3 had no effect on HbA1c. The modest reduction in PWV with both D2 and D3 relative to placebo suggests that vitamin D supplementation has a beneficial effect on arterial stiffness., (© 2015 The Authors. Diabetes, Obesity and Metabolism published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

There is limited evidence on the prospective association of time spent in activity intensity (sedentary (SED), moderate (MPA) or vigorous (VPA) physical activity) and dietary intake with adiposity indicators in young people. This study aimed to assess associations between (1) baseline objectively measured activity intensity, dietary energy density (DED) and 4-year change in adiposity and (2) 4-year change in activity intensity/DED and adiposity at follow-up. We conducted cohort analyses including 367 participants (10 years at baseline, 14 years at follow-up) with valid data for objectively measured activity (Actigraph), DED (4-d food diary), anthropometry (waist circumference (WC), %body fat (%BF), fat mass index (FMI), weight status) and covariates. Linear and logistic regression models were fit, including adjustment for DED and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity. Results showed that baseline DED was associated with change in WC (β for 1kJ/g difference: 0·71; 95% CI 0·26, 1·17), particularly in boys (1·26; 95% CI 0·41, 2·16 v. girls: 0·26; 95% CI -0·34, 0·87), but not with %BF, FMI or weight status. In contrast, baseline SED, MPA or VPA were not associated with any of the outcomes. Change in DED was negatively associated with FMI (β for 1kJ/g increase: -0·86; 95% CI -1·59, -0·12) and %BF (-0·86; 95% CI -1·25, -0·11) but not WC (-0·27; 95% CI -1·02, 0·48). Change in SED, MPA and VPA did not predict adiposity at follow-up. In conclusion, activity intensity was not prospectively associated with adiposity, whereas the directions of associations with DED were inconsistent. To inform public health efforts, future studies should continue to analyse longitudinal data to further understand the independent role of different energy-balance behaviours in changes in adiposity in early adolescence.

Purpose: Understanding seasonal variation in physical activity is important for informing public health surveillance and intervention design. The aim of the current study was to describe seasonal variation in children's objectively measured physical activity and sedentary time., Methods: Data are from the UK Millennium Cohort Study. Participants were invited to wear an accelerometer for 7 d on five occasions between November 2008 and January 2010. Outcome variables were sedentary time (<100 counts per minute, min·d(-1)) and moderate to vigorous physical activity (MVPA) (>2241 counts per minute, min·d(-1)). The season was characterized using a categorical variable (spring, summer, autumn, or winter) and a continuous function of day of the year. Cross-classified linear regression models were used to estimate the association of each of these constructs with the outcome variables. Modification of the seasonal variation by sex, weight status, urban/rural location, parental income, and day of the week (weekday/weekend) was examined using interaction terms in regression models., Results: At least one wave of valid accelerometer data was obtained from 704 participants (47% male; baseline age, 7.6 (0.3) yr). MVPA was lower in autumn and winter relative to spring, with the magnitude of this difference varying by weekday/weekend, sex, weight status, urban/rural location, and family income (P for interaction <0.05 in all cases). Total sedentary time was greater in autumn and winter compared with spring; the seasonal effect was stronger during the weekend than during the weekday (P for interaction <0.01)., Conclusions: Lower levels of MVPA and elevated sedentary time support the implementation of intervention programs during autumn and winter. Evidence of greater seasonal variation in weekend behavior and among certain sociodemographic subgroups highlights targets for tailored intervention programs.

Background and Purpose: Galanin is a widely expressed neuropeptide, which in the gut is thought to modulate gastrointestinal motility and secretion. We aimed to elucidate the poorly characterised mechanisms underlying the inhibitory effect of galanin and the potential involvement of G-protein coupled inwardly rectifying potassium, Kir 3, (GIRK) channels in glucagon-like peptide 1 (GLP-1) and glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) secretion., Experimental Approach: Purified murine L and K cells were analysed for expression of galanin receptors and GIRK subunits. Hormone secretion was measured from primary murine intestinal cultures. Intracellular cAMP was monitored in primary L cells derived from mice expressing the Epac2camps sensor under the control of the proglucagon promoter., Key Results: Galanin receptor 1 (GAL1, Galr1) and GIRK channel 1 (Kir 3.1, Kcnj3) and 4 (Kir 3.4, Kcnj5) mRNA expression was highly enriched in K and L cells. Galanin and a selective GAL1 receptor agonist (M617) potently inhibited GLP-1 and GIP secretion from primary small intestinal cultures. In L cells, galanin significantly inhibited the forskolin-induced cAMP response. The GIRK1/4 activator ML297 significantly reduced glucose-stimulated and IBMX-stimulated GLP-1 secretion but had no effect on GIP. The GIRK blocker tertiapin-Q did not impair galanin-mediated GLP-1 inhibition., Conclusions and Implications: Galanin, acting via the GAL1 receptor and Gi -coupled signalling in L and K cells, is a potent inhibitor of GLP-1 and GIP secretion. Although GIRK1/4 channels are expressed in these cells, their activation does not appear to play a major role in galanin-mediated inhibition of incretin secretion., (© 2015 The Authors. British Journal of Pharmacology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of British Pharmacological Society.)

Unlabelled: The biochemical response to ursodeoxycholic acid (UDCA)--so-called "treatment response"--strongly predicts long-term outcome in primary biliary cholangitis (PBC). Several long-term prognostic models based solely on the treatment response have been developed that are widely used to risk stratify PBC patients and guide their management. However, they do not take other prognostic variables into account, such as the stage of the liver disease. We sought to improve existing long-term prognostic models of PBC using data from the UK-PBC Research Cohort. We performed Cox's proportional hazards regression analysis of diverse explanatory variables in a derivation cohort of 1,916 UDCA-treated participants. We used nonautomatic backward selection to derive the best-fitting Cox model, from which we derived a multivariable fractional polynomial model. We combined linear predictors and baseline survivor functions in equations to score the risk of a liver transplant or liver-related death occurring within 5, 10, or 15 years. We validated these risk scores in an independent cohort of 1,249 UDCA-treated participants. The best-fitting model consisted of the baseline albumin and platelet count, as well as the bilirubin, transaminases, and alkaline phosphatase, after 12 months of UDCA. In the validation cohort, the 5-, 10-, and 15-year risk scores were highly accurate (areas under the curve: >0.90)., Conclusions: The prognosis of PBC patients can be accurately evaluated using the UK-PBC risk scores. They may be used to identify high-risk patients for closer monitoring and second-line therapies, as well as low-risk patients who could potentially be followed up in primary care., (© 2015 by the American Association for the Study of Liver Diseases.)

Background: Framingham risk equations are widely used to predict cardiovascular disease based on health information from a single time point. Little is known regarding use of information from repeat risk assessments and temporal change in estimated cardiovascular risk for prediction of future cardiovascular events. This study was aimed to compare the discrimination and risk reclassification of approaches using estimated cardiovascular risk at single and repeat risk assessments., Methods: Using data on 12,197 individuals enrolled in EPIC-Norfolk cohort, with 12 years of follow-up, we examined rates of cardiovascular events by levels of estimated absolute risk (Framingham risk score) at the first and second health examination four years later. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (aROC) and risk reclassification, comparing approaches using information from single and repeat risk assessments (i.e., estimated risk at different time points)., Results: The mean Framingham risk score increased from 15.5% to 17.5% over a mean of 3.7 years from the first to second health examination. Individuals with high estimated risk (≥20%) at both health examinations had considerably higher rates of cardiovascular events than those who remained in the lowest risk category (<10%) in both health examinations (34.0 [95%CI 31.7-36.6] and 2.7 [2.2-3.3] per 1,000 person-years respectively). Using information from the most up-to-date risk assessment resulted in a small non-significant change in risk classification over the previous risk assessment (net reclassification improvement of -4.8%, p>0.05). Using information from both risk assessments slightly improved discrimination compared to information from a single risk assessment (aROC 0.76 and 0.75 respectively, p<0.001)., Conclusions: Using information from repeat risk assessments over a period of four years modestly improved prediction, compared to using data from a single risk assessment. However, this approach did not improve risk classification.

Background: Alcohol is a well-established risk factor for breast cancer, but pathways involved in alcohol-related breast carcinogenesis are not clearly defined. We examined the association between low-to-moderate alcohol intake and breast cancer subtypes by tumor hormone receptor status., Materials and Methods: A hospital-based case-control study was performed in 585 cases and 1,170 controls. Information on alcohol intake and other risk factors was collected via a questionnaire. Logistic regression was used for analyses. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: The odds ratio of breast cancer was 1.75 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.21-2.53) in women who consumed ≤5 drinks/week, and 3.13 (95% CI: 1.81-5.43) in women who consumed >5 drinks/week, both compared with non-drinkers for ≥10 years, after adjustment for age and other confounders. The association of alcohol intake with estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer was stronger than with estrogen receptor-negative: the odds ratio per 1 category increase was 2.05 (95% CI: 1.49-2.82) and 1.29 (95% CI: 0.85-1.94) (P-heterogeneity = 0.07). There was no evidence of an interaction between alcohol intake and menopausal status (P = 0.19) in overall group; however, it was significant in estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer (P = 0.04)., Conclusions: Low-to-moderate alcohol intake is associated with the risk of estrogen receptor-positive breast cancer with the strongest association in postmenopausal women. Since alcohol intake is a modifiable risk factor of breast cancer, every woman should be informed and advised to control alcohol use.

Objective: A case-cohort study is an efficient epidemiological study design for estimating exposure-outcome associations. When sampling of the subcohort is stratified, several methods of analysis are possible, but it is unclear how they compare. Our objective was to compare five analysis methods using Cox regression for this type of data, ranging from a crude model that ignores the stratification to a flexible one that allows nonproportional hazards and varying covariate effects across the strata., Study Design and Setting: We applied the five methods to estimate the association between physical activity and incident type 2 diabetes using data from a stratified case-cohort study and also used artificial data sets to exemplify circumstances in which they can give different results., Results: In the diabetes study, all methods except the method that ignores the stratification gave similar results for the hazard ratio associated with physical activity. In the artificial data sets, the more flexible methods were shown to be necessary when certain assumptions of the simpler models failed. The most flexible method gave reliable results for all the artificial data sets., Conclusion: The most flexible method is computationally straightforward, and appropriate whether or not key assumptions made by the simpler models are valid., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: Various definitions of metabolic health have been proposed to explain differences in the risk of type 2 diabetes within BMI categories. The goal of this study was to assess their predictive relevance., Research Design and Methods: We performed systematic searches of MEDLINE records for prospective cohort studies of type 2 diabetes risk in categories of BMI and metabolic health. In a two-stage meta-analysis, relative risks (RRs) specific to each BMI category were derived by network meta-analysis and the resulting RRs of each study were pooled using random-effects models. Hierarchical summary receiver operating characteristic curves were used to assess predictive performance., Results: In a meta-analysis of 140,845 participants and 5,963 incident cases of type 2 diabetes from 14 cohort studies, classification as metabolically unhealthy was associated with higher RR of diabetes in all BMI categories (lean RR compared with healthy individuals 4.0 [95% CI 3.0-5.1], overweight 3.4 [2.8-4.3], and obese 2.5 [2.1-3.0]). Metabolically healthy obese individuals had a high absolute risk of type 2 diabetes (10-year cumulative incidence 3.1% [95% CI 2.6-3.5]). Current binary definitions of metabolic health had high specificity (pooled estimate 0.88 [95% CI 0.84-0.91]) but low sensitivity (0.40 [0.31-0.49]) in lean individuals and satisfactory sensitivity (0.81 [0.76-0.86]) but low specificity (0.42 [0.35-0.49]) in obese individuals. However, positive (<3.3 in all BMI categories) and negative (>0.4) likelihood ratios were consistent with insignificant to small improvements in prediction., Conclusions: Although individuals classified as metabolically unhealthy have a higher RR of type 2 diabetes compared with individuals classified as healthy in all BMI categories, current binary definitions of metabolic health have limited relevance to the prediction of future type 2 diabetes., (© 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.)

Background: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Primary prevention of CVD requires cost-effective strategies to identify individuals at high risk in order to help target preventive interventions. An integral part of this approach is the use of CVD risk scores. Limitations in previous studies have prevented reliable inference about the potential advantages and the potential harms of using CVD risk scores as part of preventive strategies. We aim to evaluate short-term effects of providing different types of information about coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, alongside lifestyle advice, on health-related behaviours., Methods/design: In a parallel-group, open randomised trial, we are allocating 932 male and female blood donors with no previous history of CVD aged 40-84 years in England to either no intervention (control group) or to one of three active intervention groups: i) lifestyle advice only; ii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic characteristics; and iii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic and genetic characteristics. The primary outcome is change in objectively measured physical activity. Secondary outcomes include: objectively measured dietary behaviours; cardiovascular risk factors; current medication and healthcare usage; perceived risk; cognitive evaluation of provision of CHD risk scores; and psychological outcomes. The follow-up assessment takes place 12 weeks after randomisation. The experiences, attitudes and concerns of a subset of participants will be also studied using individual interviews and focus groups., Discussion: The INFORM study has been designed to provide robust findings about the short-term effects of providing different types of information on estimated 10-year CHD risk and lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237 . Registered 12 January 2015.

We aimed to investigate the causal effect of circulating uric acid concentrations on type 2 diabetes risk. A Mendelian randomization study was performed using a genetic score with 24 uric acid-associated loci. We used data of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, comprising 24,265 individuals of European ancestry from eight European countries. During a mean (SD) follow-up of 10 (4) years, 10,576 verified incident case subjects with type 2 diabetes were ascertained. Higher uric acid was associated with a higher diabetes risk after adjustment for confounders, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.20 (95% CI 1.11, 1.30) per 59.48 µmol/L (1 mg/dL) uric acid. The genetic score raised uric acid by 17 µmol/L (95% CI 15, 18) per SD increase and explained 4% of uric acid variation. By using the genetic score to estimate the unconfounded effect, we found that a 59.48 µmol/L higher uric acid concentration did not have a causal effect on diabetes (HR 1.01 [95% CI 0.87, 1.16]). Including data from the Diabetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) consortium, increasing our dataset to 41,508 case subjects with diabetes, the summary odds ratio estimate was 0.99 (95% CI 0.92, 1.06). In conclusion, our study does not support a causal effect of circulating uric acid on diabetes risk. Uric acid-lowering therapies may therefore not be beneficial in reducing diabetes risk., (© 2015 by the American Diabetes Association. Readers may use this article as long as the work is properly cited, the use is educational and not for profit, and the work is not altered.)

Background: Insulinemia and type 2 diabetes (T2D) have been associated with endometrial cancer risk in numerous observational studies. However, the causality of these associations is uncertain. Here we use a Mendelian randomization (MR) approach to assess whether insulinemia and T2D are causally associated with endometrial cancer., Methods: We used single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with T2D (49 variants), fasting glucose (36 variants), fasting insulin (18 variants), early insulin secretion (17 variants), and body mass index (BMI) (32 variants) as instrumental variables in MR analyses. We calculated MR estimates for each risk factor with endometrial cancer using an inverse-variance weighted method with SNP-endometrial cancer associations from 1287 case patients and 8273 control participants., Results: Genetically predicted higher fasting insulin levels were associated with greater risk of endometrial cancer (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation = 2.34, 95% confidence internal [CI] = 1.06 to 5.14, P = .03). Consistently, genetically predicted higher 30-minute postchallenge insulin levels were also associated with endometrial cancer risk (OR = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.12 to 1.76, P = .003). We observed no associations between genetic risk of type 2 diabetes (OR = 0.91, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.04, P = .16) or higher fasting glucose (OR = 1.00, 95% CI = 0.67 to 1.50, P = .99) and endometrial cancer. In contrast, endometrial cancer risk was higher in individuals with genetically predicted higher BMI (OR = 3.86, 95% CI = 2.24 to 6.64, P = 1.2x10(-6))., Conclusion: This study provides evidence to support a causal association of higher insulin levels, independently of BMI, with endometrial cancer risk., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press.)

Background: Potentially modifiable risk factors including obesity, diabetes, hypertension, and smoking are associated with Alzheimer disease (AD) and represent promising targets for intervention. However, the causality of these associations is unclear. We sought to assess the causal nature of these associations using Mendelian randomization (MR)., Methods and Findings: We used SNPs associated with each risk factor as instrumental variables in MR analyses. We considered type 2 diabetes (T2D, NSNPs = 49), fasting glucose (NSNPs = 36), insulin resistance (NSNPs = 10), body mass index (BMI, NSNPs = 32), total cholesterol (NSNPs = 73), HDL-cholesterol (NSNPs = 71), LDL-cholesterol (NSNPs = 57), triglycerides (NSNPs = 39), systolic blood pressure (SBP, NSNPs = 24), smoking initiation (NSNPs = 1), smoking quantity (NSNPs = 3), university completion (NSNPs = 2), and years of education (NSNPs = 1). We calculated MR estimates of associations between each exposure and AD risk using an inverse-variance weighted approach, with summary statistics of SNP-AD associations from the International Genomics of Alzheimer's Project, comprising a total of 17,008 individuals with AD and 37,154 cognitively normal elderly controls. We found that genetically predicted higher SBP was associated with lower AD risk (odds ratio [OR] per standard deviation [15.4 mm Hg] of SBP [95% CI]: 0.75 [0.62-0.91]; p = 3.4 × 10(-3)). Genetically predicted higher SBP was also associated with a higher probability of taking antihypertensive medication (p = 6.7 × 10(-8)). Genetically predicted smoking quantity was associated with lower AD risk (OR per ten cigarettes per day [95% CI]: 0.67 [0.51-0.89]; p = 6.5 × 10(-3)), although we were unable to stratify by smoking history; genetically predicted smoking initiation was not associated with AD risk (OR = 0.70 [0.37, 1.33]; p = 0.28). We saw no evidence of causal associations between glycemic traits, T2D, BMI, or educational attainment and risk of AD (all p > 0.1). Potential limitations of this study include the small proportion of intermediate trait variance explained by genetic variants and other implicit limitations of MR analyses., Conclusions: Inherited lifetime exposure to higher SBP is associated with lower AD risk. These findings suggest that higher blood pressure--or some environmental exposure associated with higher blood pressure, such as use of antihypertensive medications--may reduce AD risk.

Background: Physical activity (PA) declines during adolescence but change in different PA intensities across population subgroups is rarely explored. We describe change in sedentary (SED) time, light (LPA), moderate (MPA) and vigorous PA (VPA) assessed at three time points over 4 years., Methods: Accelerometer-assessed PA (min) was obtained at baseline (N=2064), 1 and 4 years later among British children (baseline mean±SD 10.2±0.3-year-old; 42.5% male). Change in SED (<100 counts/min (cpm)), LPA (101-1999 cpm), MPA (2000-3999 cpm) and VPA (≥4000 cpm) was studied using three-level (age, individual and school) mixed-effects linear regression including participants with data at ≥2 time points (N=990). Differences in change by sex, home location and weight status were explored with interactions for SED, LPA and moderate and vigorous PA (MVPA)., Results: SED increased by 10.6 (95% CI 9.1 to 12.2) min/day/year. MPA and VPA decreased by 1.4 (1.0 to 1.8) and 1.5 (1.1 to 1.8) min/day/year, respectively. VPA decreased more than MPA as a percentage of the baseline value. MVPA declined more steeply among boys (3.9 (3.0 to 4.8)) versus girls (2.0 (1.2 to 2.7) min/day/year) despite lower MVPA among girls at all ages; rural (4.4 (3.5 to 5.2)) versus urban individuals (1.3 (0.4 to 2.3) min/day/year) and on weekends (6.7 (5.2 to 8.1)) versus weekdays (2.8 (1.9 to 3.7) min/day/year). MVPA was consistently lower among overweight/obese individuals (-17.5 (-3.9 to -2.5) min/day/year)., Conclusions: PA decreases and is replaced by SED during early adolescence in British youth. Results indicate the urgency of PA promotion among all adolescents but especially girls and in rural areas. Increasing VPA and targeting PA promotion during weekends appear important., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Objective: The objective of this study was to investigate whether objectively measured sedentary time and sleep duration are associated with changes in adiposity from mid- to late adolescence., Methods: Students (n = 504, 42% boys) were recruited from schools in Cambridgeshire, UK. At baseline (mean age 15.0 ± 0.3 years), sedentary time was objectively measured by ≥3 days of combined heart rate and movement sensing. Concurrently, sleep duration was measured by combined sensing in conjunction with self-reported bed times. Fat mass index (FMI; kg/m(2)) was estimated at baseline and follow-up (17.5 ± 0.3 years) by anthropometry and bioelectrical impedance. FMI change (ΔFMI) was calculated by subtracting the baseline from follow-up values. Linear regression models adjusted for basic demographics, moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA), and depressive symptoms were used to investigate associations of sedentary time and sleep duration (mutually adjusted for one another) with ΔFMI., Results: FMI increased by 0.5 and 0.6 kg/m(2) in boys and girls, respectively, but there was no association between sedentary time and ΔFMI in either gender (p ≥ 0.087), and no association between sleep duration and ΔFMI in girls (p ≥ 0.61). In boys, each additional hour of baseline sleep significantly reduced the ΔFMI by 0.13 kg/m(2) (p = 0.049), but there was little evidence for this association after adjusting for MVPA and depressive symptoms (p = 0.15)., Conclusions: Sedentary time may not determine changes in adiposity from mid- to late adolescence, nor may sleep duration in girls. However, sleep length may be inversely associated with adiposity gain in boys, depending on whether the relationship is confounded or mediated by MVPA and depression., (Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Background: Self-reported physical activity (PA) and sleep duration (SLP) change markedly throughout adolescence. We sought to quantify changes in objectively-measured PA, sedentary time (ST) and SLP through adolescence, and to investigate baseline body composition and baseline activity levels as determinants of change., Methods: Individually calibrated combined heart rate and movement sensing was used to estimate PA energy expenditure (PAEE), SLP, daily ST and time in light (LPA), moderate (MPA), vigorous (VPA), and moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) in 144 adolescents (50% boys) of mean age 15.1(±0.3)y at baseline and 17.5(±0.3)y at follow-up. Changes in PA (ΔPA), ST (ΔST) and SLP (ΔSLP) were calculated as follow-up minus baseline values. Waist circumference (WC) was measured at baseline and follow-up, as was fat mass index (FMI) and fat-free mass index (FFMI) by a pooled estimation method including bio-impedance. Comparison of baseline and follow-up activity was made by mixed-model ANOVA. Linear regression adjusted for baseline demographics, total and weekend hours of monitor wear time and the seasons of activity measurements, was used to investigate baseline body composition as determinants of ΔPA, ΔST and ΔSLP. A further model adjusted for baseline of the outcome assessed baseline activity as a predictor of behaviour change, and investigated associations for baseline body composition independent of the baseline level of the outcome., Results: From baseline to follow-up levels of MPA and VPA declined (p ≤ 0.039). The annual decline in MVPA was equivalent to -4.5 and -3.0 min/d in boys and girls, respectively. Baseline FMI, FFMI and WC were positively associated with ΔLPA and negatively associated with ΔST in boys when adjusted for baseline of the outcome (p ≤ 0.037 for all). SLP increased from baseline to follow-up (p = 0.004) but ΔSLP was not associated with baseline body composition (p ≥ 0.13). For all variables, higher baseline levels were associated with greater declines over time (p ≤ 0.003)., Conclusions: Levels of higher-intensity PA decline from mid-to-late adolescence, whereas the duration of sleep increases. Changes in LPA and ST may be associated with baseline body composition, but the baseline level of the outcome is consistently the strongest predictor of changes in adolescent activity.

Background/objectives: Biomarkers for a mixed fruit and vegetable (FV) diet are needed to provide a better understanding of the association between FV intake and type 2 diabetes. We aimed to examine the prospective association between a composite score comprised of three biomarkers of FV intake in free-living populations and incident diabetes., Subjects/methods: A total of 318 incident diabetes cases and 926 controls from the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation of Cancer)-Norfolk study aged 40-79 years at baseline (1993-1997), completed 7-day prospective food diary and had plasma vitamin C and carotenoid measures. A composite biomarker score (CB-score) comprising the sum of plasma vitamin C, beta-carotene and lutein was derived. Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident diabetes were estimated using multivariable logistic regression., Results: A strong inverse association was found between the CB-score and incident diabetes. The ORs (95% CI) of diabetes comparing quartiles Q2, Q3 and Q4 of the CB-score with Q1 (reference category) were 0.70 (0.49, 1.00), 0.34 (0.23, 0.52) and 0.19 (0.12, 0.32), respectively, and 0.49 (0.40, 0.58) per s.d. change in CB-score in a model adjusted for demographic and lifestyle factors. The association was marginally attenuated after additionally adjusting for body mass index and waist circumference (0.60 (0.49 and 0.74) per s.d. change in CB-score)., Conclusions: A combination of biomarkers representing the intake of a mixed FV diet was strongly inversely associated with incident diabetes. These findings provide further support for measuring dietary biomarkers in studies of diet-disease associations and highlight the importance of consuming FV for the prevention of diabetes.

Background/objectives: Diets high in saturated and trans fat and low in unsaturated fat may increase type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk, but studies on foods high in fat per unit weight are sparse. We assessed whether the intake of vegetable oil, butter, margarine, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies is related to incident T2D., Subjects/methods: A case-cohort study was conducted, nested within eight countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC), with 12,403 incident T2D cases and a subcohort of 16,835 people, identified from a cohort of 340,234 people. Diet was assessed at baseline (1991-1999) by country-specific questionnaires. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) across four categories of fatty foods (nonconsumers and tertiles among consumers) were combined with random-effects meta-analysis., Results: After adjustment not including body mass index (BMI), nonconsumers of butter, nuts and seeds and cakes and cookies were at higher T2D risk compared with the middle tertile of consumption. Among consumers, cakes and cookies were inversely related to T2D (HRs across increasing tertiles 1.14, 1.00 and 0.92, respectively; P-trend <0.0001). All these associations attenuated upon adjustment for BMI, except the higher risk of nonconsumers of cakes and cookies (HR 1.57). Higher consumption of margarine became positively associated after BMI adjustment (HRs across increasing consumption tertiles: 0.93, 1.00 and 1.12; P-trend 0.03). Within consumers, vegetable oil, butter and nuts and seeds were unrelated to T2D., Conclusions: Fatty foods were generally not associated with T2D, apart from weak positive association for margarine. The higher risk among nonconsumers of cakes and cookies needs further explanation.

Background: Web-based interventions for physical activity offer several advantages over face-to-face, print-and telephone-based interventions and are scalable and potentially cost-effective. Recent reviews of web-based interventions in adults show that they have positive but small effects on physical activity but identify a number of limitations including a reliance on self-report measures of outcome. This trial used an objective measure of physical activity to assess the effectiveness of three minimal contact interventions: 1) A multi-component web-based intervention incorporating objective monitoring and graphical feedback of physical activity; 2) A version of the first intervention that consisted only of objective monitoring plus web-based graphical feedback; and 3) Self-monitoring of physical activity using a paper diary., Methods/design: Get Moving is an individually randomised controlled trial with allocation of 488 participants to one of three interventions or to a no-intervention control group. Participants are physically inactive working adults aged 18-65 years. They attended a baseline assessment session at which anthropometric, biological and questionnaire measures were taken and they completed a treadmill exercise test. They then wore a combined movement and heart rate monitor for six days and nights before being randomised to one of the four trial arms. The baseline measures were repeated at the follow-up assessment which took place approximately 12 weeks post-randomisation, conducted by staff blind to group allocation. Participants wore the movement and heart rate monitor for six days and nights before this. The co-primary outcomes are: physical activity energy expenditure measured using individually calibrated combined heart-rate and movement data; and cardiorespiratory fitness measured using a sub-maximal treadmill exercise test., Discussion: Strengths of the trial include the use of an objective measure of physical activity, a measure of cardiorespiratory fitness, relatively large sample size and the use of robust methods of randomisation, allocation concealment and blinding to outcome assessment. Get Moving will contribute to the evidence base on minimal contact interventions for increasing physical activity. The interventions could be implemented in other settings such as primary care., Trial Registration: ISRCTN31844443. Registered 18 June 2010.

Objective: To explore the pathway to diagnosis of type 1 diabetes (T1D) in children., Design: Questionnaire completed by parents., Participants: Parents of children aged 1 month to 16 years diagnosed with T1D within the previous 3 months., Setting: Children and parents from 11 hospitals within the East of England., Results: 88/164 (54%) invited families returned the questionnaire. Children had mean±SD age of 9.41±4.5 years. 35 (39.8%) presented with diabetic ketoacidosis at diagnosis. The most common symptoms were polydipsia (97.7%), polyuria (83.9%), tiredness (75.9%), nocturia (73.6%) and weight loss (64.4%) and all children presented with at least one of those symptoms. The time from symptom onset to diagnosis ranged from 2 to 315 days (median 25 days). Most of this was the appraisal interval from symptom onset until perceiving the need to seek medical advice. Access to healthcare was good but one in five children presenting to primary care were not diagnosed at first encounter, most commonly due to waiting for fasting blood tests or alternative diagnoses. Children diagnosed at first consultation had a shorter duration of symptoms (p=0.022) and children whose parents suspected the diagnosis were 1.3 times more likely (relative risk (RR) 1.3, 95% CI 1.02 to 1.67) to be diagnosed at first consultation., Conclusions: Children present with the known symptoms of T1D but there is considerable scope to improve the diagnostic pathway. Future interventions targeted at parents need to address the tendency of parents to find alternative explanations for symptoms and the perceived barriers to access, in addition to symptom awareness., (Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.)

Background: Application of metabolite profiling could expand the etiological knowledge of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2D). However, few prospective studies apply broad untargeted metabolite profiling to reveal the comprehensive metabolic alterations preceding the onset of T2D., Methods: We applied untargeted metabolite profiling in serum samples obtained from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Potsdam cohort comprising 300 individuals who developed T2D after a median follow-up time of 6 years and 300 matched controls. For that purpose, we used ultraperformance LC-MS with a protocol specifically designed for large-scale metabolomics studies with regard to robustness and repeatability. After multivariate classification to select metabolites with the strongest contribution to disease classification, we applied multivariable-adjusted conditional logistic regression to assess the association of these metabolites with T2D., Results: Among several alterations in lipid metabolism, there was an inverse association with T2D for metabolites chemically annotated as lysophosphatidylcholine(dm16:0) and phosphatidylcholine(O-20:0/O-20:0). Hexose sugars were positively associated with T2D, whereas higher concentrations of a sugar alcohol and a deoxyhexose sugar reduced the odds of diabetes by approximately 60% and 70%, respectively. Furthermore, there was suggestive evidence for a positive association of the circulating purine nucleotide isopentenyladenosine-5'-monophosphate with incident T2D., Conclusions: This study constitutes one of the largest metabolite profiling approaches of T2D biomarkers in a prospective study population. The findings might help generate new hypotheses about diabetes etiology and develop further targeted studies of a smaller number of potentially important metabolites., (© 2014 American Association for Clinical Chemistry.)

Background: The higher risk of death resulting from excess adiposity may be attenuated by physical activity (PA). However, the theoretical number of deaths reduced by eliminating physical inactivity compared with overall and abdominal obesity remains unclear., Objective: We examined whether overall and abdominal adiposity modified the association between PA and all-cause mortality and estimated the population attributable fraction (PAF) and the years of life gained for these exposures., Design: This was a cohort study in 334,161 European men and women. The mean follow-up time was 12.4 y, corresponding to 4,154,915 person-years. Height, weight, and waist circumference (WC) were measured in the clinic. PA was assessed with a validated self-report instrument. The combined associations between PA, BMI, and WC with mortality were examined with Cox proportional hazards models, stratified by center and age group, and adjusted for sex, education, smoking, and alcohol intake. Center-specific PAF associated with inactivity, body mass index (BMI; in kg/m²) (>30), and WC (≥102 cm for men, ≥88 cm for women) were calculated and combined in random-effects meta-analysis. Life-tables analyses were used to estimate gains in life expectancy for the exposures., Results: Significant interactions (PA × BMI and PA × WC) were observed, so HRs were estimated within BMI and WC strata. The hazards of all-cause mortality were reduced by 16-30% in moderately inactive individuals compared with those categorized as inactive in different strata of BMI and WC. Avoiding all inactivity would theoretically reduce all-cause mortality by 7.35% (95% CI: 5.88%, 8.83%). Corresponding estimates for avoiding obesity (BMI >30) were 3.66% (95% CI: 2.30%, 5.01%). The estimates for avoiding high WC were similar to those for physical inactivity., Conclusion: The greatest reductions in mortality risk were observed between the 2 lowest activity groups across levels of general and abdominal adiposity, which suggests that efforts to encourage even small increases in activity in inactive individuals may be beneficial to public health.

Dietary recommendations to promote health include fresh, frozen and tinned fruit, but few studies have examined the health benefits of tinned fruit. We therefore studied the association between tinned fruit consumption and mortality. We followed up participants from three prospective cohorts in the United Kingdom: 22,421 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort (1993-2012), 52,625 participants from the EPIC-Oxford cohort (1993-2012), and 7440 participants from the Whitehall II cohort (1991-2012), all reporting no history of heart attack, stroke, or cancer when entering these studies. We estimated the association between frequency of tinned fruit consumption and all cause mortality (primary outcome measure) using Cox regression models within each cohort, and pooled hazard ratios across cohorts using random-effects meta-analysis. Tinned fruit consumption was assessed with validated food frequency questionnaires including specific questions about tinned fruit. During 1,305,330 person years of follow-up, 8857 deaths occurred. After adjustment for lifestyle factors and risk markers the pooled hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of all cause mortality compared with the reference group of tinned fruit consumption less often than one serving per month were: 1.05 (0.99, 1.12) for one to three servings per month, 1.10 (1.03, 1.18) for one serving per week, and 1.13 (1.04, 1.23) for two or more servings per week. Analysis of cause-specific mortality showed that tinned fruit consumption was associated with mortality from cardiovascular causes and from non-cardiovascular, non-cancer causes. In a pooled analysis of three prospective cohorts from the United Kingdom self-reported tinned fruit consumption in the 1990s was weakly but positively associated with mortality during long-term follow-up. These findings raise questions about the evidence underlying dietary recommendations to promote tinned fruit consumption as part of a healthy diet.

Background: Statins increase the risk of new-onset type 2 diabetes mellitus. We aimed to assess whether this increase in risk is a consequence of inhibition of 3-hydroxy-3-methylglutaryl-CoA reductase (HMGCR), the intended drug target., Methods: We used single nucleotide polymorphisms in the HMGCR gene, rs17238484 (for the main analysis) and rs12916 (for a subsidiary analysis) as proxies for HMGCR inhibition by statins. We examined associations of these variants with plasma lipid, glucose, and insulin concentrations; bodyweight; waist circumference; and prevalent and incident type 2 diabetes. Study-specific effect estimates per copy of each LDL-lowering allele were pooled by meta-analysis. These findings were compared with a meta-analysis of new-onset type 2 diabetes and bodyweight change data from randomised trials of statin drugs. The effects of statins in each randomised trial were assessed using meta-analysis., Findings: Data were available for up to 223 463 individuals from 43 genetic studies. Each additional rs17238484-G allele was associated with a mean 0·06 mmol/L (95% CI 0·05-0·07) lower LDL cholesterol and higher body weight (0·30 kg, 0·18-0·43), waist circumference (0·32 cm, 0·16-0·47), plasma insulin concentration (1·62%, 0·53-2·72), and plasma glucose concentration (0·23%, 0·02-0·44). The rs12916 SNP had similar effects on LDL cholesterol, bodyweight, and waist circumference. The rs17238484-G allele seemed to be associated with higher risk of type 2 diabetes (odds ratio [OR] per allele 1·02, 95% CI 1·00-1·05); the rs12916-T allele association was consistent (1·06, 1·03-1·09). In 129 170 individuals in randomised trials, statins lowered LDL cholesterol by 0·92 mmol/L (95% CI 0·18-1·67) at 1-year of follow-up, increased bodyweight by 0·24 kg (95% CI 0·10-0·38 in all trials; 0·33 kg, 95% CI 0·24-0·42 in placebo or standard care controlled trials and -0·15 kg, 95% CI -0·39 to 0·08 in intensive-dose vs moderate-dose trials) at a mean of 4·2 years (range 1·9-6·7) of follow-up, and increased the odds of new-onset type 2 diabetes (OR 1·12, 95% CI 1·06-1·18 in all trials; 1·11, 95% CI 1·03-1·20 in placebo or standard care controlled trials and 1·12, 95% CI 1·04-1·22 in intensive-dose vs moderate dose trials)., Interpretation: The increased risk of type 2 diabetes noted with statins is at least partially explained by HMGCR inhibition., Funding: The funding sources are cited at the end of the paper., (Copyright © 2015 Swerdlow et al. Open Access article distributed under the terms of CC BY. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

Objective: The objective of this study is to examine the independent associations of time spent in moderate-to-vigorous physical activity (MVPA) and sedentary (SED-time), with total and abdominal body fat (BF), and the bidirectionality of these associations in adults at high risk of type 2 diabetes., Design and Subjects: We measured MVPA (min per day) and SED-time (h per day) by accelerometry, and indices of total (body weight, fat mass (FM), BF% and FM index) and abdominal BF (waist circumference (WC)) using standard procedures in 231 adults (41.3 ± 6.4 years) with parental history of type 2 diabetes (ProActive UK) at baseline, 1-year and 7-year follow-up. Mixed effects models were used to quantify the independent associations (expressed as standardised β-coefficients (95% confidence interval (CI))) of MVPA and SED-time with fat indices, using data from all three time points. All models were adjusted for age, sex, intervention arm, monitor wear time, follow-up time, smoking status, socioeconomic status and MVPA/SED-time., Results: MVPA was inversely and independently associated with all indices of total BF (for example, 1 s.d. higher MVPA was associated with a reduction in FM, β = -0.09 (95% CI: -0.14, -0.04) s.d.) and abdominal BF (for example, WC: β = -0.07 (-0.12, -0.02)). Similarly, higher fat indices were independently associated with a reduction in MVPA (for example, WC: β = -0.25 (-0.36, -0.15); FM: β = -0.27 (-0.36, -0.18)). SED-time was positively and independently associated with most fat indices (for example, WC: β = 0.03 (-0.04, 0.09); FM: β = 0.10 (0.03, 0.17)). Higher values of all fat indices independently predicted longer SED-time (for example, WC: β = 0.10 (0.02, 0.18), FM: β = 0.15 (0.07, 0.22))., Conclusions: The associations of MVPA and SED-time with total and abdominal BF are bidirectional and independent among individuals at high risk for type 2 diabetes. The association between BF and MVPA is stronger than the reciprocal association, highlighting the importance of considering BF as a determinant of decreasing activity and a potential consequence. Promoting more MVPA and less SED-time may reduce total and abdominal BF.