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Objectives: Multimorbidity is associated with mortality in high-income countries. Our objective was to investigate the relationship between multimorbidity (≥2 of the following chronic medical conditions: hypertension, diabetes, dyslipidaemia, anaemia, HIV, angina, depression, post-traumatic stress disorder, alcohol dependence) and all-cause mortality in an older, rural black South African population. We further investigated the relationship between HIV multimorbidity (HIV as part of the multimorbidity cluster) and mortality, while testing for the effect of frailty in all models. Design: Population cohort study. Setting: Agincourt subdistrict of Mpumalanga province, South Africa. Participants: 4455 individuals (54.7% female), aged ≥40 years (median age 61 years, IQR 52-71) and resident in the study area. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome measure was time to death and the secondary outcome measure was likelihood of death within 2 years of the initial study visit. Mortality was determined during annual population surveillance updates. Results: 3157 individuals (70.9%) had multimorbidity; 29% of these had HIV. In models adjusted for age and sociodemographic factors, multimorbidity was associated with greater risk of death (women: HR 1.72; 95% CI: 1.18 to 2.50; men: HR 1.46; 95% CI: 1.09 to 1.95) and greater odds of dying within 2 years (women: OR 2.34; 95% CI: 1.32 to 4.16; men: OR 1.51; 95% CI: 1.02 to 2.24). HIV multimorbidity was associated with increased risk of death compared with non-HIV multimorbidity in men (HR 1.93; 95% CI: 1.05 to 3.54), but was not statistically significant in women (HR 1.85; 95% CI: 0.85 to 4.04); when detectable, HIV viral loads were higher in men (p=0.021). Further adjustment for frailty slightly attenuated the associations between multimorbidity and mortality risk (women: HR 1.55; 95% CI: 1.06 to 2.26; men: HR 1.36; 95% CI: 1.01 to 1.82), but slightly increased associations between HIV multimorbidity and mortalit

Objectives: We investigated concordance between haemoglobin A1c (HbA1c)-defined diabetes and fasting plasma glucose (FPG)-defined diabetes in a black South African population with a high prevalence of obesity. Design: Cross-sectional study. Setting: Rural South African population-based cohort. Participants: 765 black individuals aged 40–70 years and with no history of diabetes. Primary and secondary outcome measures: The primary outcome measure was concordance between HbA1c-defined diabetes and FPG-defined diabetes. Secondary outcome measures were differences in anthropometric characteristics, fat distribution and insulin resistance (measured using Homoeostatic Model Assessment of Insulin Resistance (HOMA-IR)) between those with concordant and discordant HbA1c/FPG classifications and predictors of HbA1c variance. Results: The prevalence of HbA1c-defined diabetes was four times the prevalence of FPG-defined diabetes (17.5% vs 4.2%). Classification was discordant in 15.7% of participants, with 111 individuals (14.5%) having HbA1c-only diabetes (kappa 0.23; 95% CI 0.14 to 0.31). Median body mass index, waist and hip circumference, waist-to-hip ratio, subcutaneous adipose tissue and HOMA-IR in participants with HbA1c-only diabetes were similar to those in participants who were normoglycaemic by both biomarkers and significantly lower than in participants with diabetes by both biomarkers (p<0.05). HOMA-IR and fat distribution explained additional HbA1c variance beyond glucose and age only in women. Conclusions: Concordance was poor between HbA1c and FPG in diagnosis of diabetes in black South Africans, and participants with HbA1c-only diabetes phenotypically resembled normoglycaemic participants. Further work is necessary to determine which of these parameters better predicts diabetes-related morbidities in this population and whether a population-specific HbA1c threshold is necessary.

Background: Disability weights (DWs) are weight factors that reflect the severity of health states for estimates of disability-adjusted life years. A new set of global DWs was published for the Global Burden of Diseases and Injuries (GBD) 2013 study, which relied on sampling from various world regions, but included little data for countries in East Asia. This study aimed to measure DWs in Japan using comparable methods, and compare the results with previous estimates from the GBD 2013 DW study. Methods: We conducted a web-based survey in 2019 to estimate DWs for 231 health states for the Japanese population. The survey included five new health states but otherwise followed the method of the GBD DW measurement study. The survey consisted of 15 paired comparison (PC) questions and 3 population health equivalence questions (PHE) per respondent. We analyzed PC data using probit regression and rescaled results to DW units between 0 (equivalent to full health) and 1 (equivalent to death). Findings: We considered 37,318 nationally representative respondents. The values of the resulting DWs ranged from 0.707 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 0.527–0.842) for spinal cord injury at neck level (untreated) to 0.004 (UI 0.001–0.009) for mild anemia. High correlation between Japanese DW and GBD 2013 DW was observed, but there was considerable disagreement. Out of 226 comparable health states, 55 (24.3%) showed more than a factor-of-two difference, of which 41 (74.6%) had a higher value in Japanese DW. Many of the health states with higher DW in the Japan study were injuries, including amputation and fracture, and hearing and vision loss, while mental, behavioral, and substance use disorders generally tended to be lower. Conclusions: This study has created an empirical basis for assessment of Japanese DWs of health status. The findings from this study based on the Japanese population suggest that there might be contextual differences in ra