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In the second half of the twentieth century, after the Second World War, a considerable migration from inland to coastal areas was observed in many territories, especially in the Mediterranean. This process has caused the expansion of existing coastal settlements and the construction of numerous new towns, often substituting beaches and dune systems. All this has often altered the equilibrium conditions of several coastal ecosystems thereby triggering shoreline erosion processes. This issue is particularly important in territories such as Calabria, a region of southern Italy subject to considerable anthropogenic pressures and characterized by over 750 km of coast. The paper analyses the correlations between shoreline erosion and anthropogenic pressure in Calabria. For this purpose, historical and current cartographic Open Data, such as shapefiles, cartography, and satellite imagery, were analysed using QGIS. The analysis showed a strong correlation between the anthropogenic pressures, in terms of the expansion of the inhabited centres and, therefore, of the man-made areas near the shoreline, and the triggering of shoreline erosion processes. Finally, this analysis is of interest in the field of coastal area planning and management, and it is easily applicable and replicable as it is based on Open Data and free software. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effects of global climate change are already observed in coastal communities, and one of the key impacts of climate change is sea level rise (SLR). Such increases in sea level are expected to have large impacts on transportation infrastructure and result in region-wide commute disruption. Studies and adaptation strategies in coastal areas will allow decision-makers to take better actions against SLR. The present paper uses the San Francisco Bay Area as a case study. The study quantifies the interregional traffic delay of commuters due to the inundation of shoreline protection segments of the Bay Area. The approach is based on the marginal effect of protection within San Francisco Bay where individual stretches of coastline known as operational landscape units (OLUs) are protected one at a time. In the study, we integrate detailed shoreline scenarios, coastal inundation modeling, and traffic disruption modeling. Important insights from the analysis are obtained: the protection of an OLU (and specifically San Rafael OLU) will produce an average commute time reduction of up to 17% in the neighboring areas or the neighborhoods located across the bay. Five OLUs along with four bridges were identified as critical for minimizing disruptions to commute times. This methodology may be used by decision-makers when proposing adaptation and protection strategies that account for both local and regional areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beaches are highly variable environments and respond to changes in wave forcing, themselves modulated by climate variability. Here, we analyze three high‐quality beach profile data sets to robustly investigate, for the first time, the link between shoreline change, wave forcing and climate variability along the Atlantic coast of Europe. Winter wave conditions are strongly associated with North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and Western Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA), with WEPA explaining 50%–80% of the winter wave power variability. Shoreline variability during winter is also strongly linked to NAO and WEPA, with WEPA explaining 25% of the winter shoreline variability. Winter wave conditions and associated shoreline variability are both unrelated to El Nino Southern Oscillation. In addition to the atmospherically‐forced beach morphological response, shoreline change also depends strongly on the antecedent morphology as evidenced by significant correlations between summer/winter shoreline response and the shoreline position at the start of each season. Plain Language Summary: Beaches change as a result of changes in the wave conditions, and the weather and climate controls wave conditions. We surveyed two beaches in SW England and one beach in SW France every month for more than 15 years and analyzed these data to look, for the first time, at the connections between beach change, waves and climate along the Atlantic coast of Europe. Atmospheric indices are numbers that tell us about large‐scale weather, and the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Western Europe Pressure Anomaly (WEPA) are powerful indices that describe the weather in the north‐east Atlantic. We found that especially WEPA is strongly correlated with winter waves and beach change during the winter months for all three study sites. We also found that beach change over the summer and winter season depends very much on whether the beach is relatively healthy or depleted of sediment. Key Points: Three beach profile data sets are used to investigate link between shoreline change, waves and climate along the Atlantic coast of EuropeWinter wave conditions and shoreline change are correlated with atmospheric indices North Atlantic Oscillation and Western Europe Pressure Anomaly, but uncorrelated to El Nino Southern OscillationAntecedent beach morphology is an important factor in determining summer and winter shoreline response [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shoreline position is a key parameter of a beach state, often used as a descriptor of the response of the system to changes in external forcing, such as sea-level rise. Changes in shoreline position are the result of coupled hydrodynamic and morphodynamic processes happening in the nearshore and acting at different temporal scales. Due to this complexity, methodologies aimed at reproducing shoreline evolution at decadal time scale require many simplifications. Simpler methods usually consider an equilibrium beach profile whose shape depends only on beach morphology, and whose location varies depending on incoming forcing. Here, we derive a general equation for shoreline evolution using equilibrium beach profiles. We particularize it based on several common assumptions, and evaluate changes on shoreline position caused by sea-level rise, combined with simultaneous wave and high-frequency sea-level forcing. We compare our model against other analytical equilibrium beach profile-based models and with a dynamic model explicitly computing sediment transport. Results indicate that: (i) it is necessary to consider the area of the emerged beach subject to marine forcing rather than focusing only on the submerged part, (ii) the rates of shoreline recession may change for narrow beaches, defined as those for which marine forcings act onto all of their aerial surface, and (iii) Bruun's Rule can describe beach shoreline evolution, but the uncertainty in selecting the landward boundary of the active profile entails a huge uncertainty in the magnitude of shoreline evolution. This problematic uncertainty can be drastically reduced if instantaneous forcing conditions are used instead of the arbitrary emerged/submerged active profile boundaries typically defined by only one statistic parameter of extreme conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The accurate evaluation of shoreline movement is a crucial aspect for managing highly dynamic coasts. This study employed Landsat TM and OLI data through the Digital Shoreline Analysis System model to quantify changes in the spatiotemporal distribution of Tianjin's coastline from 1985 to 2020. The results showed that the coastline length (CL) increased by 178 km and 151% over the past 36 years, with an average increase of 5.1 km/a. Accretion and erosion processes along the entire coast were observed at rates of 83.9% and 16.1%, respectively. Notably, the Tianjin Port Area and Nangang Industrial Zone showed remarkable changes in the shoreline in 2009. Night lights (NL) were used to display the intensity of human activity in this area, and the spatial heterogeneity of night light intensity was significant. Compared to the total night light (TNL) in 1985, it increased by 116% in 2020. The relationship between TNL and CL was then established and displayed a significant positive correlation (r = 0.91). With the increasing total night light, the growth of the CL presented changes with an initial slow increase, then rapid increase, and finally slow increase. In the second phase of TNL, the CL experienced a considerable increase due to anthropogenic activities such as land reclamation and port construction, fueled primarily by government policies during the period of 2005–2013. Subsequently, there was little change in the coastline. These findings provide valuable insights into spatiotemporal coastline monitoring programs and sustainable coastal management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shoreline changes have become a serious problem in all coastal areas worldwide. This study aimed to detect shoreline changes and analyze the shoreline change rate caused by abrasion and accretion in the coastal area of Supiori Regency, Indonesia. Landsat 8/9 imagery was used to determine the position of the coastline in 2013 and 2023. The shoreline movement (Net Shoreline Movement) and the shoreline change rate (End Point Rate) were analyzed using the Digital Shoreline Analysis System installed on ArcMap software. The results of this study indicate that there has been abrasion and accretion where there are several very significant locations. The maximum distance of the shoreline movements due to abrasion and accretion occurred in the Supiori Selatan District as far as -67.15 and 92.86 m, respectively. The average shoreline movement caused by abrasion ranges from -11.37 to -13.59 m and from 9.75 to 15.64 m in the case of accretion. From the comparison of abrasion and accretion, only the Kepulauan Aruri District has a positive value (dominant accretion), while the other four districts have a negative value (dominant abrasion). The shoreline changes rates in the study area caused by abrasion and accretion ranged from -1.22 to -1.46 m/yr and 1.05 to 1.68 m/yr, respectively. Abrasion and accretion in the study area are predominantly caused by natural factors such as waves, currents, and river flows, as well as caused by non-natural factors mainly due to human activities. Information on shoreline changes in the study area is an important aid for stakeholders involved in coastal area management. Therefore, planning, strategies, and mitigation efforts are urgently needed to anticipate increased coastal erosion and possible negative impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise is associated with increased coastal erosion and inundation. However, the effects of sea level change on the shoreline can be enhanced or counteracted by vertical land motion and morphological processes. Therefore, knowledge about the individual contributions of sea level change, vertical land motion and morphodynamics on shoreline changes is necessary to make informed choices when applying coastal defence measures. Here, we assess the potential of remote sensing techniques to detect a geometrical relationship between sea level rise and shoreline retreat for a case study at the Terschelling barrier island at the Northern Dutch coast. First, we find that sea level observations from satellite radar altimetry retracked with ALES can represent sea level variations between 2002 and 2022 at the shoreline when the region to extract altimetry timeseries is chosen carefully. Second, results for cross-shore timeseries of satellite-derived shorelines extracted from optical remote sensing images can change considerably dependent on choices made for tidal correction and parameter settings during the computation of timeseries. While absolute shoreline positions can differ on average by more than 200 m, the average trend differences are below 1 m yr-1. Third, by intersecting the 1992 land elevation with time variable sea level, we find that inundation through sea level rise caused on average -0.3 m yr-1 of shoreline retreat between 1992 and 2022. The actual shoreline movement in this period was on average between -2.8 m yr-1 and -3.2 m yr-1, leading to the interpretation that the larger part of shoreline changes at Terschelling is driven by morphodynamics. We conclude that the combination of sea level from radar altimetry, satellite derived shorelines and land elevation provides valuable information about the influence of sea level rise, vertical land motion and morphodynamics on shoreline movements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Some biological invasions can result in algae blooms in the nearshore of clear lakes. We studied if an invasive crayfish (Pacifastacus leniusculus) modified the biomass and community composition of benthic macroinvertebrates and therefore led to a trophic cascade resulting in increased periphyton biomass, elevated littoral primary productivity, and benthic algae bloom in a lake with remarkable transparency [Crater Lake, Oregon, USA]. After quantifying the changes in the spatial distribution of invasive crayfish over a 13-year period, we compared biomass and community composition of littoral–benthic macroinvertebrates, periphyton biovolume, community composition, nutrient limitation, and the development of benthic algae bloom in locations with high and low crayfish density. In addition, we determined if the alteration in community structure resulted in directional changes to gross primary production and ecosystem respiration. The extent of crayfish distribution along the shoreline of Crater Lake doubled over a 13-year period, leaving less than 20% of the shoreline free from crayfish. At high crayfish density sites, benthic macroinvertebrate biomass was 99% lower, and taxa richness was 50% lower than at low crayfish areas. High crayfish sites show tenfold greater periphyton biovolume, sixfold higher periphyton biomass (chlorophyll a), twofold higher metabolic productivity, and the presence of large filamentous algae (Cladophora sp.). The invasion of crayfish had negative consequences for a lake protected under the management of the USA National Park Service, with direct impacts on many levels of ecological organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The process of shoreline change is inherently complex, and reliable predictions of shoreline position remain a key challenge in coastal research. Predicting shoreline evolution could potentially benefit from deep learning (DL), which is a recently developed and widely successful data-driven methodology. However, so far its implementation for shoreline time series data has been limited. The aim of this contribution is to investigate the potential of DL algorithms to predict interannual shoreline position derived from camera system observations at a New Zealand study site. We investigate the application of convolutional neural networks (CNNs) and hybrid CNN-LSTM (Long Short-Term Memory) networks. We compare our results with two established models: a shoreline equilibrium model and a model that addresses timescales in shoreline drivers. Using a systematic search and different measures of fitness, we found DL models that outperformed the reference models when simulating the variability and distribution of the observations. Overall, these results indicate that DL models have potential to improve accuracy and reliability over current models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sandy shorelines occupy ca. 80% of the coast of Mozambique, South Africa and Namibia. A geomorphological classification of sandy shorelines in the subcontinent identifies twelve major categories in four sub-regional coastal systems. The behaviour of each of the major shoreline types under rising sea level is outlined based on geological principles together with observations of former shorelines preserved onshore and on the continental shelf. Human adaptation strategies regarding shoreline change involve a binary choice (hold the shoreline in place or permit it to fluctuate) and these exert an equally important control on sandy shoreline response in the medium term as does sea-level rise itself. It is anticipated that densely urbanised sandy shorelines will be stabilised by coastal defences involving both capital works and ongoing maintenance that will be accompanied by deterioration and ultimate loss/replacement of the natural ecosystem. In contrast, currently undeveloped, natural shorelines will be permitted to adjust and will, as a consequence, survive and continue to deliver ecosystem services. The major challenge for climate-change adaptation lies in those lightly urbanised coastal areas where relatively small numbers of property owners may be, or perceive themselves to be, at risk of economic loss from shoreline change. In such cases the choice is between preserving those property interests (through sea defences) and preserving the sandy shoreline and its human and ecosystem services (via retreat). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aims to explore the site-specific impact of coastal structures on the stability of the shoreline. For this study, the shoreline data were collected with higher-order accuracy along a few vulnerable stretches of the coast in the vicinity of hard structures such as Seawalls, Groyne, Breakwater, and Training walls along the southeast and southwest coasts of India. All the field collected shoreline data were analysed with statistical measures using DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System) tool of ArcGIS software. The presence of shore connected coastal structures dictates the sedimentation process in its purlieu. The observed average rate of erosion and accretion in the adjoining coastlines are −5.7 m/yr and +4.92 m/yr, respectively. The field measurements from the present study would provide an effective base for the planning and implementation of coastal structures near the studied area, as well as to adopt a better methodology for coastal impact assessment. Most of the well-planned and executed hard engineering structures have yielded desirable results and benefit for the local coastal communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coral reef islands are vulnerable landforms to environmental change. Constructed of largely unconsolidated reef‐derived sediments, they are highly sensitive to variations in metocean boundary conditions, raising global concern about their future resilience and stability in the face of increased natural hazards, sea‐level rise and anthropogenic climate change. This study examines the evolution of an inshore turbid reef island from the southern Pilbara region of Western Australia (Indo‐Pacific) using detailed analyses of island chronostratigraphy (composition, texture) and geochronology (21 in‐situ radiometric dates) from Eva Island. Downcore, composition of island‐grade (reef‐derived) sediments were homogenous, dominated by molluscan (37%–42%) and coral (32%–37%) constituents. The 14C radiometric dating of island sediments, beachrock and coral microatolls identified five stages of island formation across changing sea‐level regimes over the mid to late Holocene: (1) limestone platform accretion at ca 6,000 cal yr BP, coinciding with reef decline or 'give‐up' on neighbouring Exmouth Gulf reefs; (2) sand cay (i.e. core) initiation and vertical aggregation at ca 5,000 cal yr BP during the point of sea‐level regression to current levels; (3) major accretion and lateral progradation of the island between 3,500 cal yr BP and 2,500 cal yr BP including the modification of island shorelines through alongshore reworking of sediment; (4) lateral accretion and minor expansion to the north and formation of beachrock pavement between 2,500 and 650 cal yr BP; and (5) planform adjustment (erosion of the north‐west island) and backstepping under stabilised sea levels over the past 650 years. While this model is comparative to studies on island formation following incremental sea‐level fall following the mid‐Holocene highstand, it demonstrates active landform readjustment under stabilised sea levels over the past 2,000 years, probably the influence of local‐scale metocean boundary conditions within climate windows across the mid to late Holocene period (i.e. independent of sea‐level fluctuations). Importantly, while sediment production rates are predicted to be lower in turbid‐water reef systems than clear water, Eva Island shows no change in carbonate producers (i.e. proportion of mollusc and coral) over the course of island building, indicating the carbonate factory has not experienced significant adjustments in reef ecology, but has remained stable despite low water quality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The imagery collected by medium-resolution earth-observing satellites is a powerful and cost-effective tool for the quantitative assessment of shoreline dynamics for water bodies of different spatial scales. In this study, we utilize imagery collected in 1984–2021 on the Middle Peninsula, Virginia, bordering the Chesapeake Bay, USA, by medium-resolution (10–30 m) satellites Landsat-5/7/8 and Sentinel-2A/B. The data was managed in the Earth Analytics Interoperability Lab (EAIL) Data Cube built and configured by the Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization (CSIRO, Australia and Chile). The assessments of shoreline change demonstrate adequate agreement with assessments based on aerial photography collected during 1937–2009 by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science, with reasonable disagreement attributed to the differences in the analyzed periods and in the accuracy of land/water edge detection. Most of the studied coastline was subject to land loss (erosion), in some locations exceeding 3 m year−1, usually along low-lying sandy beaches. The shoreline segments with man-made structures such as marinas, bulkheads, revetments, and offshore breakwaters demonstrated a significantly lower range of changes as compared to natural reaches. Regular analysis of medium-resolution satellite imagery appears to be an effective method for routine assessment of shoreline changes along the land/water edge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing historical changes in the shoreline and retreat of cliffs is essential for understanding the evolution and behaviour of specific coastal systems. The present study focused on shoreline changes and cliff base retreat trends at different time scales (annual/decadal) along a 680‐m stretch of Pacheco Beach (Caucaia, Northeast Brazil), which are characterized by coastal erosion and mass movements that have posed risks to residents and visitors to this beach. Shoreline position data were obtained through images collected by satellites and field campaigns for precision mapping through unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) photogrammetry. The spatiotemporal variations of the shoreline were acquired through an extension of the ArcGIS Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) and the linear regression rate (LRR) statistical method that reflects the variations that have occurred in the coastal segment. The long‐term results show constant erosion patterns in the study area, with a shoreline retreat of −31 m in the last 17 years at an average rate of −1.8 m/year. In the short term, the average rate of retreat between May 2021 and Jan 2022 was −2.9 m, indicating that 88.78% of the evaluated section was in a continuous process of erosion. Several factors and processes cause the short‐term rates to be more severe than historical rates, demonstrating the stochastic nature of the Pacheco Beach cliff system. This research provides essential data for understanding and predicting shoreline changes on different time scales, thereby contributing to the identification and zoning of unstable cliffs and allowing for the mapping of risk areas to direct coastal management strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level rise (SLR) and increasing storm frequency threaten coastal environments. Engineering solutions such as breakwaters will become ineffective for wave attenuation and erosion control due to SLR. As a natural alternative, oysters create three‐dimensional, complex reef structures that attenuate wave energy and increase sedimentation rates. If coupled with breakwaters, oysters may maintain breakwaters' efficiency over time as they are expected to grow with SLR. Here, we measured bathymetric changes over 3 years (via GPS) and wave dampening due to four‐made intertidal breakwaters within a small cove of the Choptank River (MD, USA). Then, we modeled the coupling of such gray structures with oysters through Delft3D‐SWAN to evaluate the performances of such hybrid solutions on coastal protection, under future scenarios of SLR and climate change. Modeling hydrodynamic results showed a gradual reduction in wave attenuation due to SLR. However, when oysters were included in the modeling, wave dampening in 100 years was 75% and 60% greater than gray breakwaters, at high and low tides, respectively. Morphodynamic results showed increasing net export of sediment from the coast due to SLR. Oyster addition also provided shoreline protection and sediment retention in 100 years compared with the use of breakwaters alone, thanks to oysters' capability to grow with SLR. The coupling between oysters and breakwaters may represent a valuable and effective methodology to protect our coast over a changing climate and a rising sea, where optimal conditions for oyster survivability occur and are maintained over time. Plain Language Summary: Sea level rise (SLR) and increasing storm frequency threaten coastal environments. To naturally protect our coasts, living organisms such as oysters can be used. They provide a multitude of benefits for the surrounding environment, including coastal protection. Unlike any common gray structure used for coastal defense, such as breakwaters, oysters can grow with SLR and self‐repair from damage following extreme events. In this study, we analyzed the coupling between breakwaters and oysters through a numerical model, Delft3D‐SWAN, validated with field data. The research aimed to evaluate the performance of this hybrid solution under future scenarios of climate change and SLR. The study results showed that the coastline was more preserved and protected over time when oysters were included in the simulation, thanks to their capability to self‐adapt over a changing climate. Incoming wave heights and sediment export from the shore were reduced compared with the use of gray breakwaters alone, resulting in a resilient and healthier coast. The coupling between oysters and breakwaters may represent a valuable and effective methodology to protect our coast over a changing climate and a rising sea, where optimal conditions for oyster survivability occur and are maintained over time. Key Points: Field and modeling experiments were performed to analyze how submerged breakwaters' efficiency will change under increasing sea levelsWhen coupled with oysters, breakwaters were able to provide sediment retention and wave attenuation over time, under sea level riseOptimal environmental conditions for oyster sustainability are key to properly implementing oyster‐reef breakwaters in coastal defense [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Living shorelines (LSs) increasingly are implemented as a defense against coastal erosion and rising seas; however, their ecological function for wading birds has not been evaluated. Here, we compared heron and shorebird use of LSs (created fringe salt marshes with a wave break fronting the planted marshes) to natural‐fringe marshes (NFMs) in the Chesapeake Bay. We assessed the use between May and August in 2018 and 2019 at 13 tidal marsh pairs, each consisting of one LS and NFM site, with sites within pairs having similar surrounding land use and wave exposure. In each year, we assessed diurnal use with video cameras recording at least four 30‐min segments/day for a total of 677 h of video, and nocturnal/diurnal use with acoustic recording equipment recording 10‐min sound files every 2 h/day for a total of 160 h of recording. We quantified diurnal use by measuring the total time a species spent at a site, and nocturnal/diurnal use by estimating the probability of detection (i.e., presence/absence). We detected four heron and five shorebird species when data were aggregated across pairs and sampling methods. Using Bayesian mixed models, time of use did not differ between LS and NFM sites for great blue herons (Ardea herodias) and yellow‐crowned night‐herons (Nyctanassa violacea). In contrast, time of use was higher for green herons (Butorides virescens) and spotted sandpipers (Actitis macularis) at LS sites but tended to be higher for great egrets (Ardea alba) at NFM sites. The probability of detection did not differ between LS and NFM sites for great blue herons and great egrets (combined as "Ardea spp." due to difficulty in differentiating calls under noisy conditions), yellow‐crowned night‐herons, and spotted sandpipers. Green herons and killdeer (Charadrius vociferous), however, tended to be detected more frequently at LS sites. Collectively, our research indicates that LSs are functionally equivalent to NFMs for herons and shorebirds. We hypothesize that the low‐profile rock sills of LS provide platforms for resting and preening and offer prey even when vegetated marshes are unavailable to short‐legged species during flooding tides. In addition to their established reduction of coastal erosion, LSs provide habitat for herons and shorebird species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vypin, Vallarpadam, and Bolgatty are significant tropical coastal islands situated in the humid tropical Kerala region of India, notable for their environmental sensitivity. This study conducted a comprehensive assessment of shoreline alterations on these islands by integrating Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) techniques. Utilizing satellite imagery from the LANDSAT series with a spatial resolution of 30 m, the analysis spanned the years from 1973 to 2019. The Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS) tool, integrated into the ArcGIS software, was employed to monitor and analyze shoreline shifts, encompassing erosion and accretion. Various statistical parameters, including Net Shoreline Movement (NSM), End Point Rate (EPR), and Linear Regression Rate (LRR), were utilized to evaluate these changes. Additionally, the study aimed to discern the root causes of shoreline modifications in the study area, encompassing disturbances and the construction of new structures on these islands. The results conclusively demonstrated the substantial impact endured by these coastal islands, with accretion on both sides leading to the creation of new landmasses. This manuscript effectively illustrates that these islands have experienced marine transgression, notably evidenced by accretion. Anthropogenic activities were identified as the primary drivers behind the observed shoreline changes, underscoring the need for careful management and sustainable practices in these fragile coastal ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The amount of fresh water moving through coastal deltas worldwide is controlled by the complex subsurface structures within a delta. Morphodynamic influences produced by the feeding river, waves, and tides, in addition to sea level transgressions and regressions, have resulted in deltaic aquifers that are highly heterogeneous. We use 171 unique two‐dimensional morphodynamic models to explore the range of subsurface permeability, hydraulic gradient, and groundwater flux within three end‐member delta types (fluvial, wave, and tidal). We quantify the connectiveness of the subsurface permeability and estimate the horizontal heterogeneity and anisotropy of the permeability. A distance‐based generalized sensitivity analysis is used to investigate the impact morphodynamic influences (fluvial, wave, and tidal), basin conditions (sediment concentration and bathymetric gradient), and geomorphic characteristics (number of channels, shape of the delta plain, and shoreline rugosity) have on the subsurface permeability, hydraulic gradient, and connectivity. We find that the median permeability in deltaic landforms is 4.0 × 10−12 m2 (relating to a hydraulic conductivity of 2.1 × 10−5 m/s), the average hydraulic gradient is 3.9 × 10−4, and the mean specific discharge is 1.3 × 10−8 m/s. High permeability bodies are highly connected and are associated with channelization. Subsurface permeability, hydraulic gradient, and the connectiveness of high permeability areas are sensitive to morphodynamic influences (fluvial, wave, and tidal) and the geomorphic characteristics (number of channels and shoreline rugosity) within a delta. Since morphodynamic influences and geomorphic characteristics are easily identified by looking at the surface of the delta, we suggest that the deltaic subsurface can be characterized by identifying features on the delta surface. Key Points: Delta morphodynamics controls the permeability, hydraulic gradient, and connectivity of high permeability bodies in coastal deltasHigh permeability bodies are associated with current and previous channelization and are highly connectedWave deltas may be especially susceptible to inundation and groundwater salinization due to high permeability and low hydraulic gradient [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shoreline cities are influenced by both urban‐scale processes and land‐water interactions, with consequences on heat exposure and its disparities. Heat exposure studies over these cities have focused on air and skin temperature, even though moisture advection from water bodies can also modulate heat stress. Here, using an ensemble of model simulations covering Chicago, we find that Lake Michigan strongly reduces heat exposure (2.75°C reduction in maximum average air temperature in Chicago) and heat stress (maximum average wet bulb globe temperature reduced by 0.86°C) during the day, while urbanization enhances them at night (2.75 and 1.57°C increases in minimum average air and wet bulb globe temperature, respectively). We also demonstrate that urban and lake impacts on temperature (particularly skin temperature), including their extremes, and lake‐to‐land gradients, are stronger than the corresponding impacts on heat stress, partly due to humidity‐related feedback. Likewise, environmental disparities across community areas in Chicago seen for skin temperature are much higher (1.29°C increase for maximum average values per $10,000 higher median income per capita) than disparities in air temperature (0.50°C increase) and wet bulb globe temperature (0.23°C increase). The results call for consistent use of physiologically relevant heat exposure metrics to accurately capture the public health implications of urbanization. Plain Language Summary: Cities along coastlines are affected by both urban processes and interactions between land and water. Previous studies on heat exposure in these cities primarily focused on temperature of the ground surface (or skin) and the air above that surface, generally overlooking the influence of moisture from water bodies on heat stress. In our study, using multiple coupled weather simulations, we show that during the day, Lake Michigan significantly reduces heat exposure and heat stress. However, at night, urbanization increases them. We also found that the effects of urbanization and the lake on temperature, especially skin temperature and its extreme, as well as the temperature difference between the lake and the land, are stronger than their impacts on heat stress. This is due to weaker coupling between daytime air and skin temperature, as well as to humidity‐related factors. Moreover, we observed that environmental disparities in skin temperature are much higher than equivalent disparities in heat stress. These findings highlight the importance of using heat exposure metrics that are relevant to human physiology to accurately understand and inform the public health implications of urbanization. Key Points: Lake Michigan reduces daytime heat stress in Chicago, while urbanization primarily increases nighttime heat stressUrban and lake impacts on skin temperature are stronger than the corresponding impacts on air and wet bulb globe temperatureDisparities in skin temperature across Chicago's community areas are higher than disparities in air and wet bulb globe temperature [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The hinterland of the Taranto Gulf in Basilicata (Southern Italy) provides a great opportunity for the study of coarse-grained coastal systems belonging to a staircase of Quaternary terraced marine-deposits. Among gravelly successions, beach deposits abound in the stratigraphic record, offering exceptional outcrops useful for providing detailed information on their facies features. In this paper, we describe sedimentary facies, textural variations, and the depositional architecture of these deposits in order to: (1) demonstrate that the area is an excellent training ground for the study of gravelly beaches in microtidal settings; (2) discuss the use of beach deposits as a proxy for even small relative sea-level variations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Linear buildups formed in tropical carbonate environments are often interpreted as bioconstructed reefs. Nevertheless, coastal processes can also form extensive sedimentary ridges exhibiting buildup morphologies. This study investigates two Miocene ridges developed along the Australian North West Shelf using 3D seismic and well data. Ridge 1 is ca. 30 m thick and >60 km long, and it is made of foraminiferal pack‐grainstones. It protects a lagoon with pinnacle morphologies. Ridge 2 is ca. 150 m thick and >80 km long. It is composed of quartz sand forming lobes. Both ridges have a continuous curvilinear front and are in a mid‐shelf setting. They mimic the modern Australian coastline. It is then proposed that Ridge 1 is either: (1) a barrier reef developed on a drowned shoreline, or (2) stacked carbonate aeolianites and beachrocks acting as a barrier. Ridge 2 is interpreted as stacked deltaic sands. This study demonstrates that lithified and buried coastal features of carbonate and siliciclastic nature can form extensive ridges exhibiting buildup morphologies. It is proposed that ridges formed by stacked coastal features are overall continuous with a curvilinear front, while reefal ridges are more discontinuous and exhibit deeper and more stable passes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessing the vulnerability of low-lying coral reef islands is a global concern due to predictions that climate and environmental change will increase reef island instability and cause reef island populations to be among the first environmental refugees. Reef islands in the Pacific and Indian Oceans are highly dynamic environments that morphologically adjust to changing environmental conditions over annual-decadal timescales. However, there is a paucity of reef island shoreline change data from the Caribbean where sea-level rise, ecological and environmental disturbance and hydrodynamic regimes are considerably different than in other oceans globally. Here we present shoreline change analysis of 16 reef islands in northern Honduras, at the southern end of the Mesoamerican Barrier Reef. Satellite imagery from a maximum period of 12.4 years from Utila (2006–2019), and 2.4 years from Cayos Cochinos (2018–2021) was analysed to quantify island shoreline change and planform morphological adjustments. We identified accretion as the dominant island behaviour in Utila, where 5 of 7 islands increased in area and 61.7% of shorelines accreted, contributing to an overall net area increase of 9.4%. Island behaviour was more variable in Cayos Cochinos, where 55.7% of shorelines eroded, 5 of 9 islands remained stable, and net island area change was insignificant (2%). Conversely, the 4 smallest Cayos Cochinos islands (all <1500 m2) experienced significant shoreline change, potentially highlighting a new size threshold for considering reef island evolution. Across both sites, reef islands demonstrated a range of modes of planform change, including lateral accretion and erosion, and migration. Consequently, we provide the first empirical evidence of the dynamic nature of Caribbean reef islands during a period coincident with sea-level rise and highlight the heterogeneous nature of reef island evolution between and within two neighbouring sites at timescales relevant for island adaptation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, the most popular methods for determining coastline course are geodetic, satellite, and tacheometric techniques. None of the above-mentioned measurement methods allows marking out the shoreline both in an accurate way and with high coverage of the terrain with surveys. For this reason, intensive works are currently underway to find alternative solutions that could accurately, extensively, and quickly determine coastline course. Based on a review of the literature regarding shoreline measurements, it can be concluded that the photogrammetric method, based on low-altitude images taken by an Unmanned Aerial Vehicle (UAV), has the greatest potential. The aim of this publication is to present and validate a method for determining coastline course based on low-altitude photos taken by a drone. Shoreline measurements were carried out using the DJI Matrice 300 RTK UAV in the coastal zone at the public beach in Gdynia (Poland) in 2023. In addition, the coastline course was marked out using high-resolution satellite imagery (0.3–0.5 m). In order to calculate the accuracy of determining the shoreline by photogrammetric and satellite methods, it was decided to relate them to the coastline marked out using a Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) Real Time Kinematic (RTK) receiver with an accuracy of 2.4 cm Distance Root Mean Square (DRMS). Studies have shown that accuracies of determining coastline course using a UAV are 0.47 m (p = 0.95) for the orthophotomosaic method and 0.70 m (p = 0.95) for the Digital Surface Model (DSM), and are much more accurate than the satellite method, which amounted to 6.37 m (p = 0.95) for the Pléiades Neo satellite and 9.24 m (p = 0.95) for the Hexagon Europe satellite. Based on the obtained test results, it can be stated that the photogrammetric method using a UAV meets the accuracy requirements laid down for the most stringent International Hydrographic Organization (IHO) order, i.e., Exclusive Order (Total Horizontal Uncertainty (THU) of 5 m with a confidence level of 95%), which they relate to coastline measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Holocene relative shore‐level changes and development of the Ģipka palaeolagoon in the western Gulf of Riga are reconstructed using multiproxy analyses by combining litho‐, biostratigraphical and chronological data with remote sensing and geophysical data. The results show the development of the Ģipka basin from the Ancylus Lake/Initial Litorina Sea coastal zone (before c. 9.1 cal. ka BP) to coastal fen (c. 9.1 to 8.4 cal. ka BP) and gradual development of the Litorina Sea lagoon (c. 8.4 to 4.8 cal. ka BP) and its transition to a freshwater coastal lake (c. 4.8 to 4.6 cal. ka BP), fen (c. 4.6 to 4.2 cal. ka BP), and river floodplain (since c. 4.2 cal. ka BP). The highest shorelines of the Ancylus Lake and Litorina Sea were mapped at an elevation of 12–11 and 9 m a.s.l., respectively. A new relative shore level (RSL) curve for the western Gulf of Riga was constructed based on RSL data from the Ģipka area and from nearby Ruhnu Island studied earlier. The reconstruction shows that the beginning of the last marine transgression in the western Gulf of Riga started at c. 8.4 cal. ka BP, and concurred with the 1.9 m RSL rise event recorded from the North Sea basin. Diatom analysis results indicate the existence of the Ģipka lagoon between c. 7.7 and 4.8 cal. ka BP, with the highest salinity c. 6.1 cal. ka BP. During the existence of the brackish lagoon, settlement sites of the Neolithic hunter–gatherer groups existed on the shores of the lagoon in the period c. 6.0 to 5.0 cal. ka BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sandy beaches are ever-changing environments, as they experience constant reshaping due to the external forces of tides, waves, and winds. The shoreline position, which marks the boundary between water and sand, holds great significance in the fields of coastal geomorphology, coastal engineering, and coastal management. It is crucial to understand how beaches evolve over time, but high-resolution shoreline datasets are scarce, and establishing monitoring systems can be costly. To address this, we present a new dataset of the shorelines of five Spanish sandy beaches located in contrasting environments that is derived from the CoastSnap citizen-science shoreline monitoring programme. The use of citizen science within environmental projects is increasing, as it allows both community awareness and the collection of large amounts of data that are otherwise difficult to obtain. This dataset includes a total of 1721 individual shorelines composed of 3 m spaced points alongshore, accompanied by additional attributes, such as elevation value and acquisition date, allowing for easy comparisons. Our dataset offers a unique perspective on how citizen science can provide reliable datasets that are useful for management and geomorphological studies. The shoreline dataset, along with relevant metadata, is available at 10.5281/zenodo.8056415 (González-Villanueva et al., 2023b). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Mass loss from polar ice sheets is becoming the dominant contributor to current sea level changes, as well as one of the largest sources of uncertainty in sea level projections. The spatial pattern of sea level change is sensitive to the geometry of ice sheet mass changes, and local sea level changes can deviate from the global mean sea level change due to gravitational, Earth rotational and deformational (GRD) effects. The pattern of GRD sea level change associated with the melting of an ice sheet is often considered to remain relatively constant in time outside the vicinity of the ice sheet. For example, in the sea level projections from the most recent IPCC sixth assessment report (AR6), the geometry of ice sheet mass loss was treated as constant during the 21st century. However, ice sheet simulations predict that the geometry of ice mass changes across a given ice sheet and the relative mass loss from each ice sheet will vary during the coming century, producing patters of global sea level changes that are spatiotemporally variable. We adopt a sea level model that includes GRD effects and shoreline migration to calculate time-varying sea level patterns associated with projections of the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets during the coming century. We find that in some cases, sea level changes can be substantially amplified above the global mean early in the century, with this amplification diminishing by 2100. We explain these differences by calculating the contributions of Earth rotation as well as gravitational and deformational effects to the projected sea level changes separately. We find in one case, for example, that ice gain on the Antarctic Peninsula can cause an amplification of up to 2.9 times the global mean sea level equivalent along South American coastlines due to positive interference of GRD effects. To explore the uncertainty introduced by differences in predicted ice mass geometry, we predict the sea level changes following end-member mass loss scenarios for various regions of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from the ISMIP6 model ensemblely, and find that sea level amplification above the global mean sea level equivalent differ by up to 1.9 times between different ice mass projections along global coastlines outside of Greenland and Antarctica. This work suggests that assessments of future sea level hazard should consider not only the integrated mass changes of ice sheets, but also temporal variations in the geometry of the ice mass changes across the ice sheets. As well, this study highlights the importance of constraining the relative timing of ice mass changes between the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Amurang Bay has a very high development potential with the characteristics of a sloping and shallow topography and one of the areas as the capital of the South Minahasa district which is vulnerable to changes in the coastline. This analysis is used in order to analyse the changes that occur to the coastline in Kawangkoan Bawah and to see the changes over the next 10 years. Changes in the coastline can be monitored using remote sensing satellite technology, in a multi-temporal method as the comparative method or time series image analysis (last 5 years). The data analysis technique was carried out through ArGIS software using an additional tool, named DSAS. results of analysis of shoreline changes using NSM and LRR calculations in 2017-2022. Overall, the indications are that abrasion and accretion always occur every year so that they can change the shape of the beach over the last 5 years. The speed of movement of the coastline -5.9m/year. As for the speed of retreat of the coastline is -0.37m/year. The results of observation and analysis show that the coastline of Kawangkoan Bawah Village in Teluk Amurang is basically dynamic because it is found that abrasion and accretion occur every year. Recommended further studies related to land use patterns, sea level rise, and morphological changes to the existence and sustainability of the coast. We also recommend conducting in-depth studies that rely on field measurements to include the effect of momentary water levels in shoreline position monitoring [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Sea level rise is expected to cause significant normal-state shoreline retreat and higher waves due to changes in wave climate are expected to cause significant temporary shoreline retreat. The shoreline changes will increase the risk of coastal disasters. The Bruun rule is currently widely used to predict shoreline retreat due to sea level rise, although its reliability should be improved. The effective use of long-term beach monitoring data with deep neural networks can lead to a better understanding of the processes of beach response to sea level rise. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The sedimentary sequence in Lake Salda has been first documented in detail by analyses of high-resolution seismic profiles and sediment cores together with onshore outcrops along the present shoreline of the lake. Such a multi-proxy approach provides a strong record of changing lake levels and depositional conditions in Lake Salda during the mid to late Holocene. The accurate determination of water-level oscillation and climate conditions relies on the confident deduction from 14C-dated onshore outcrops and sediment cores, which provide calibration for the chronostratigraphic units within high-resolution seismic records. The existence of a dry climate period during the transition from the middle to late Holocene caused the lake level to decrease until 1690 cal years BP. This prominent climate deterioration induced coastal progradation in the lake as inferred from the deltaic sequences in the high-resolution seismic record and favored stromatolite formation, given its oligotrophic water condition. The resultant lowstand of lake level during the late Holocene timely coincided with the Roman Climatic Optimum when a prominent erosional truncation surface and channel incision were formed as observed from the seismic profiles. The late Holocene, during 1690–1050 cal years BP, is represented by a transgressive condition due to lake-level increase, giving rise to a retreat of the deltaic deposit further inland. The ongoing deepening of the lake by contributions of both climate and tectonic activity during the last 650 cal years BP produced Gilbert-type fan deltas along the shoreline and a transgressive sedimentary unit with typical onlapping architecture in the seismic reflection profiles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Retrogressive thaw slumps, which are a type of landslide disturbance caused by thawing of ice-rich permafrost, are increasing in size, intensity, and frequency in the Arctic because of climate warming. The formation of thaw slumps on lake shorelines in the Mackenzie Delta region (Northwest Territories, Canada) has been shown to increase water clarity, which may increase exposure risk of aquatic biota to potentially harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation. To test this, we inferred temporal trends in UV exposure for the cladoceran Chydorus (Family Chydoridae, Class Branchiopoda) in a slump-affected lake and a neighbouring undisturbed lake by measuring absorbance at UV wavelengths in Chydorus subfossil carapaces isolated from lake-sediment cores. There was no statistically significant difference in Chydorus carapace UV-absorbance measures between the slump-affected and the undisturbed lake, despite notable differences in dissolved organic carbon and water clarity. No increase in Chydorus UV-absorbance measures occurred in the slump-impacted lake following re-initiation of slumping in the ~ 1990s, but a steady increase in UV absorbance was observed in both lakes since ~ 1800, independent of slump formation. Overall, the results of this study suggest that retrogressive thaw slumping did not substantially increase Chydorus exposure to potentially harmful UV radiation. As benthic taxa, Chydorus are likely able to find refuge among the dense macrophyte beds that develop in slump-affected lakes, which would provide shading from UV radiation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The coastal region of Augusta, eastern Sicily, Italy, is a densely populated zone, where human pressures profoundly shaped the coastal and land dynamics. So far, understanding the interaction between natural and human processes in modelling coastal geomorphology is still quite challenging. However, coastal and environmental monitoring poses the bases for managing coastal areas properly. Therefore, the aim of this research was first to understand the medium‐term shoreline changes along Augusta Bay between 1972 and 2021, and then assess the main local coastal modifications determined by the increasing coastal armouring. To do so, the shorelines dataset was extracted from Landsat and Sentinel‐2 satellite imageries using the NDWI and mNDWI methods and then statistical parameters were computed using Digital Shoreline Analysis System (DSAS). Results show that this coastal fringe experienced significant shoreline recession over the studied time interval. Negative shoreline shifts are higher in correspondence with torrent deltas, as a result of the increasing human and natural forces insisting on the land and coastal environments. Since 1970s, Augusta Bay registered a significant increase in artificial coastal length and a coastal armouring index of Maximal level was reached today. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shoreline evolution over the last two centuries was analysed for Dundrum Bay, Co. Down, Northern Ireland, using historical and recent shoreline datasets from 1833 to 2020. The area of interest comprises two sandy beaches and vegetated coastal dune fields, Newcastle–Murlough and Ballykinler, separated by an inlet channel which connects the inner with the outer bay. Twenty‐four temporal shorelines were extracted, and a quantitative assessment of their positional uncertainty was performed. This was combined with analysis of foredune volume variations by applying the Structure‐from‐Motion‐Multi‐View‐Stereo technique to 1963 aerial photography and comparing it with a 2014 Light Detection And Ranging (LiDAR) dataset to better inform on links between the sediment dynamics and the observed shoreline changes. Storm events were identified using recorded extreme water levels (EWLs) (1901–2020) and hindcasted wave data (1948–2020). In the first 87 years, the shoreline was largely stable, and change was focused at the inlet area. In the 20th century, localised retreat characterised the western (Newcastle–Murlough) sector, whereas the eastern sector (Ballykinler) experienced general shoreline advance. The rate and extent of shoreline retreat in the western sector increased post‐1997 in concert with accelerated accretion at Ballykinler. The strongest erosional episodes were recorded in 1920–1951, 1997–2005, and 2012–2014. Although no direct link was established between single storms and shoreline retreat rates, the three major retreat periods coincided with several consecutive EWLs or EWLs with a return period greater than 100 years. These were generated by storm directions ranging from south to southwest. The long‐term pattern of shoreline change points to a complex coastal system that is still evolving. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Water quality parameters are key indicators of quality of water and can indicate the algal biomass and eutrophication in lakes. Therefore, this study spectrally inverted and evaluated the water quality of the Poyang Lake in China by analysing the differences between the measured water quality parameters and the observed image spectra of Sentinel‐2 remote sensing. This analysis was done using statistical regression models (SRMs) and various machine learning models (e.g., support vector machine [SVM] and random forest [RF]). The following major conclusions were drawn: (1) nutrients accumulated more in summer (June–August) than in winter (December–February). For example, in local areas of the main river, total nitrogen (TN) concentration reached 3.4 mg/L in summer of 2016, whereas total phosphorus (TP) concentrations were below 0.052 mg/L in winters of 2016 and 2017. (2) The three models, SRM, RF and SVM, achieved good results in the inversions of Secchi depth and permanganate index. However, differences were noted in the inversions of other parameters. For example, the goodness‐of‐fit (r2) between the inversion and measured values of TN concentration from RF was 0.81, while that from SR was 0.73. (3) The spatial distribution patterns of the water quality parameters showed differences. The ammoniacal nitrogen concentration was higher in the central region than that in the western region of the lake, whereas TP concentration was higher at the shoreline of the lake at 0.07 mg/L on 2 April 2017 but was relatively low in the main channel. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents examples of the employment of various geodetic measuring tools used for a detailed inventory of lake basins and shorelines. The measurement and analysis covered three post-mining open pit excavations recultivated as water reservoirs: two in Krakow (Bagry Wielkie and Bagry Małe) and one in Piaseczno (Piaseczno Sulphur Mine). Attention was paid to the factors that reduce the accuracy of the inventory of some flooded post-mining excavations, which determine the degree of usefulness of the morphometric data set for later analyses. According to available estimates, only about one-third of all water reservoirs in Poland have detailed geodetic documentation in the form of bathymetric maps. This documentation usually does not include water reservoirs of anthropogenic origin formed after the flooding of post-mining excavations (mines: sand, gravel, clay, limestone, sulphur, aggregates, etc.). The authors suggest the introduction of a document known as a reservoir documentation card and the creation of a database covering all anthropogenic water reservoirs. Considering the water deficit in Poland, it may be necessary to develop a detailed database of water resources in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the authors verified the results by comparing them to those of other survey techniques, such as ground-penetrating RADAR, the multi-channel analysis of surface waves (MASW), and cone penetration tests. This was assessed at three macro-tidal study sites along the coastline of England, UK: estuarine, soft cliff environment, and gravel pocket beach. Morgan et al. (2022) [[1]] explored the use of a new survey method, the Passive Seismic Survey (PSS), to assess the beach sediment thickness in different coastal environments on the coast of England, UK. [Extracted from the article]

Coastal areas are usually heavily exploited. Numerous anthropogenic constructions are developed along the coastal areas for recreational, economic and/or cultural purposes. They influence the coastal hydrodynamics. Therefore, identifying the source of coastline transformation is essential for controlling these modifications and develop a sustainable coastal area. Simultaneous deployment of numerical modeling and RS imageries is a suitable approach for understanding hydrodynamic processes in coastal areas. In this study, the hydrodynamic condition of the Beris Port area located in the Makran region, north of the Gulf of Oman, has been analyzed using MIKE-21 software package, RS, and GIS techniques. Our results reveal the accretion of 20.97 ha adjacent to the breakwater since 1988. We also found that the shore near the port is heavily accumulated by sediment, while this is not the case for those shore far from the port. According to our results significant wave height is considerably low inside the port, even during the high season of summer, which is due to the construction of the port and the bay shape of the coast. The current speed, inside the port, is also low (0.01 m/s). The current adjacent to the port is in the opposite direction to the main current direction of the region, causing nearshore accretion. Therefore, it is believed that the accretion problem is due to the poor design of the breakwaters' layout. Thus, a new alignment for the breakwater is suggested, taking into account the hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of the area. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract.--Living shorelines provide a nature-based strategy for coastal restoration with ample opportunity for community engagement and collaboration with interdisciplinary stakeholders. While their implementation has increased over the past few decades, [...]