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BACKGROUND Primary prevention strategies to mitigate the burden of heart failure (HF) are urgently needed. However, no validated risk prediction tools are currently in use. OBJECTIVES This study sought to derive 10-year risk equations of developing incident HF.METHODS Race-and sex-specific 10-year risk equations for HF were derived and validated from individual-level data from 7 community-based cohorts with at least 12 years of follow-up. Participants who were recruited between 1985 and 2000, between 30 to 79 years, and were free of cardiovascular disease at baseline were included to create a pooled cohort (PC) and were randomly split for derivation and internal validation. Model performance was also assessed in 2 additional cohorts.RESULTS In the derivation sample of the PC (n = 11,771), 58% were women, 22% were black with a mean age of 52 +/- 12 years, and HF occurred in 1,339 participants. Predictors of HF included in the race-sex-specific models were age, blood pressure (treated or untreated), fasting glucose (treated or untreated), body mass index, cholesterol, smoking status, and QRS duration. The PC equations to Prevent HF model had good discrimination and strong calibration in internal and external validation cohorts. A web-based tool was developed to facilitate clinical application of this tool.CONCLUSIONS The authors present a contemporary analysis from 33,010 men and women demonstrating the utility of the sex-and race-specific 10-year PC equations to Prevent HF risk score, which integrates clinical parameters readily available in primary care settings. This tool can be useful in risk-based decision making to determine who may merit intensive screening and/or targeted prevention strategies. (c) 2019 by the American College of Cardiology Foundation.

Acute heart failure (HF) is a major public health concern, responsible for >26 million hospitalizations per year worldwide. Many trials have investigated new therapeutic options for acute HF, with most revealing equivocal results. Successful innovations in therapy for acute HF have remained limited, and standard of care has remained largely unchanged over the past decade, suggesting the need for a new approach for therapeutic decision making and clinical trial design in acute HF. This manuscript focuses on one approach that could prove useful in the development and application of novel therapies: classification of patients based on clinical profiles. While previous attempts at developing clinical profiles were successful in stratifying patients based on clinical and laboratory variables, they have not been utilized for personalized treatment strategies that improve patient outcomes. We suggest a new approach to the creation of clinical profiles that could stratify patients based on their underlying aetiology and their response to novel interventions. We also investigate novel analytic approaches to the creation of new clinical profiles that both investigators and clinicians alike could utilize to inform clinical trial design and the application of new therapies. Despite a large number of clinical trials for new therapeutic options, the treatment of acute HF has seen few advances over the past decades. Innovative approaches to patient selection through the use of clinical profiles could help to identify patients most likely to benefit from novel interventions and lead to the discovery of new therapeutic options.

OBJECTIVE The sodium–glucose cotransporter 2 inhibitors (SGLT2i) empagliflozin and canagliflozin reduce the incidence of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE), all-cause mortality (ACM), and renal events in cardiovascular outcomes trials, with observational real-world evidence suggesting class effect benefits that include dapagliflozin. We examined the placebo arm of the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) to determine whether the effects of drop-in open-label dapagliflozin on MACE, ACM, and estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) were consistent with the SGLT2i class as a whole. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS SGLT2i drop-in therapy occurred in 10.6% of EXSCEL participants, with 5.2% taking dapagliflozin. Propensity-matched cohorts of SGLT2i users and nonusers (n = 709 per group) were generated on the basis of their characteristics before open-label SGLT2i drop-in or at baseline for participants taking SGLT2i at enrollment and an equivalent study visit for non-SGLT2i users. Time to first adjudicated MACE and ACM was analyzed using Cox regression. eGFR slopes were compared between matched cohorts using a mixed-model repeated-measures analysis. RESULTS In adjusted analyses, SGLT2i users (compared with nonusers) had a numerically lower risk of MACE (adjusted hazard ratio 0.79 [95% CI 0.49–1.28]), as did dapagliflozin users (0.55 [0.26–1.15]). SGLT2i users had a significantly lower ACM risk (0.51 [0.27–0.95]; dapagliflozin: 0.66 [0.25–1.72]). Compared with nonusers, eGFR slope was significantly better for SGLT2i users overall (+1.78 [95% CI 0.87–2.69] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year) and for dapagliflozin users (+2.28 [1.01–3.54] mL/min/1.73 m2 per year). CONCLUSIONS This post hoc analysis of the placebo arm of EXSCEL supports a beneficial class effect for all SGLT2i, including dapagliflozin, for reduced ACM and less eGFR decline.

Worsening heart failure (HF) often requires hospitalization but in some cases may be managed in the outpatient or emergency department (ED) settings. The predictors and clinical significance of ED visits without admission vs hospitalization are unclear.The ASCEND-HF trial included 2661 US patients hospitalized for HF with reduced or preserved ejection fraction. Clinical characteristics were compared between patients with a subsequent all-cause ED visit (with ED discharge) within 30 days vs all-cause readmission within 30 days. Factors associated with each type of care were assessed in multivariable models. Multivariable models landmarked at 30 days evaluated associations between each type of care and subsequent 150-day mortality.Through 30-day follow-up, 193 patients (7%) had ED discharge, 459 (17%) had readmission, and 2009 (76%) had neither urgent visit. Patients with ED discharge vs readmission were similar with respect to age, sex, systolic blood pressure, ejection fraction, and coronary artery disease, whereas ED discharge patients had a modestly lower creatinine (P.01). Among patients with either event within 30 days, a higher creatinine and prior HF hospitalization were associated with a higher likelihood of readmission, as compared with ED discharge (P.02). Landmarked at 30 days, rates of death during the subsequent 150 days were 21.0% for patients who were readmitted and 11.4% for patients discharged from the ED. Compared with patients who were readmitted, ED discharge was independently associated with lower 150-day mortality (adjusted hazard ratio 0.58, 95% confidence interval 0.36-0.92, P = .02).In this cohort of US patients hospitalized for HF, worse renal function and prior HF hospitalization were associated with a higher likelihood of early postdischarge readmission, as compared with ED discharge. Although subsequent mortality was high after discharge from the ED, this risk of mortality was significantly lower than patients who were readmitted to the hospital.

Background Palliative care (PC) in advanced heart failure (HF) aims to improve symptoms and quality of life (QOL), in part through medication management. The impact of PC on polypharmacy (>5 medications) remains unknown. Methods and Results We explored patterns of polypharmacy in the Palliative Care in HF (PAL-HF) randomized controlled trial of standard care vs interdisciplinary PC in advanced HF (N = 150). We describe differences in medication counts between arms at 2, 6, 12, and 24 weeks for HF (12 classes) and PC (6 classes) medications. General linear mixed models were used to evaluate associations between treatment arm and polypharmacy over time. The median age of the patients was 72 years (interquartile range 62–80 years), 47% were female, and 41% were Black. Overall, 48% had ischemic etiology, and 55% had an ejection fraction of 40% or less. Polypharmacy was present at baseline in 100% of patients. HF and PC medication counts increased in both arms, with no significant differences in counts by drug class at any time point between arms. Conclusions In a trial of patients with advanced HF considered eligible for PC, polypharmacy was universal at baseline and increased during follow-up with no effect of the palliative intervention on medication counts relative to standard care.

Recent data suggest that patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and worsening heart failure (WHF) have potential for greater benefit from newer HF therapies. We investigated characteristics and outcomes of patients with HFrEF and WHF by severity of left ventricular dysfunction.We identified patients with chronic symptomatic HFrEF (left ventricular ejection fraction [LVEF] ≤35%) and evidence of WHF (emergency department visit or hospitalization for acute HF within 12 months of index echocardiogram) treated at Duke University between 1/2009 and 12/2018. Patients were stratified by LVEF≤25% or 26% to35%. Cox models were used to estimate cause-specific hazard ratios and 5-year event incidence of death and hospitalization across the range of LVEF.Of 2823 patients with HFrEF and WHF, 1620 (57.4%) had an LVEF≤25% and 1203 (42.6%) had an LVEF 26% to35%. Compared to patients with LVEF 26% to35%, those with LVEF≤25% were younger and more commonly men with a lower cardiovascular comorbidity burden. Patients with LVEF≤25% were less commonly on beta blockers (85.9% vs 90.5%) but more commonly treated with mineralocorticoid receptor antagonists (49.3% vs 41.1%) and implantable defibrillators (41.3% vs 28.2%). Patients with LVEF≤25% had significantly higher hazards for death (HR 1.24 [95% CI 1.11 - 1.38]), all-cause hospitalization (HR 1.21 [95% CI 1.10 - 1.33]), and HF hospitalization (HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.1 - 1.38]) through 5-years.More than half of patients with chronic HFrEF and WHF have severe LV dysfunction. Important differences in comorbidities, HF therapies, and outcomes exist between those with LVEF≤25% and those with LVEF 26% to35%.

Objectives This study assessed for treatment interactions by ejection fraction (EF) subgroup (≥45% [heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF); vs Background The REHAB-HF trial showed that an early multidomain rehabilitation intervention improved physical function, frailty, quality-of-life, and depression in older patients hospitalized with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Methods Three-month outcomes were: Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB), 6-min walk distance (6MWD), and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). Six-month end points included all-cause rehospitalization and death and a global rank of death, all-cause rehospitalization, and SPPB. Prespecified significance level for interaction was P ≤ 0.1. Results Among 349 total participants, 185 (53%) had HFpEF and 164 (47%) had HFrEF. Compared with HFrEF, HFpEF participants were more often women (61% vs 43%) and had significantly worse baseline physical function, frailty, quality of life, and depression. Although interaction P values for 3-month outcomes were not significant, effect sizes were larger for HFpEF vs HFrEF: SPPB +1.9 (95% CI: 1.1-2.6) vs +1.1 (95% CI: 0.3-1.9); 6MWD +40 meters (95% CI: 9 meters-72 meters) vs +27 (95% CI: −6 meters to 59 meters); KCCQ +9 (2-16) vs +6 (−2 to 14). All-cause rehospitalization rate was nominally lower with intervention in HFpEF but not HFrEF [effect size 0.83 (95% CI: 0.64-1.09) vs 0.99 (95% CI: 0.74-1.33); interaction P = 0.40]. There were significantly greater treatment benefits in HFpEF vs HFrEF for all-cause death [interaction P = 0.08; intervention rate ratio 0.63 (95% CI: 0.25-1.61) vs 2.21 (95% CI: 0.78-6.25)], and the global rank end point (interaction P = 0.098) with benefit seen in HFpEF [probability index 0.59 (95% CI: 0.50-0.68)] but not HFrEF. Conclusions Among older patients hospitalized with ADHF, compared with HFrEF those with HFpEF had significantly worse impairments at baseline and may derive greater benefit from the intervention. (A Trial of Rehabilitation Therapy in Older Acute Heart Failure Patients [REHAB-HF]; NCT02196038 )

Background Visceral adipose tissue (VAT) is associated with incident heart failure (HF) and HF with preserved ejection fraction, yet it is unknown how pericardial and abdominal adiposity affect HF and mortality risks in Black individuals. We examined the associations of pericardial adipose tissue (PAT), VAT, and subcutaneous adipose tissue (SAT) with incident HF hospitalization and all‐cause mortality in a large community cohort of Black participants. Methods and Results Among the 2882 Jackson Heart Study Exam 2 participants without prevalent HF who underwent body computed tomography, we used Cox proportional hazards models to examine associations between computed tomography–derived regional adiposity and incident HF hospitalization and all‐cause mortality. Fully adjusted models included demographics and cardiovascular disease risk factors. Median follow‐up was 10.6 years among participants with available VAT (n=2844), SAT (n=2843), and PAT (n=1386). Fully adjusted hazard ratios (95% CIs) of distinct computed tomography–derived adiposity measures (PAT per 10 cm 3 , VAT or SAT per 100 cm 3 ) were as follows: for incident HF, PAT 1.08 (95% CI, 1.02–1.14) and VAT 1.04 (95% CI, 1.01–1.08); for HF with preserved ejection fraction, PAT 1.13 (95% CI, 1.04–1.21) and VAT 1.07 (95% CI, 1.01–1.13); for mortality, PAT 1.07 (95% CI, 1.03–1.12) and VAT 1.01 (95% CI, 0.98–1.04). SAT was not associated with either outcome. Conclusions High PAT and VAT, but not SAT, were associated with incident HF and HF with preserved ejection fraction, and only PAT was associated with mortality in the fully adjusted models in a longitudinal community cohort of Black participants. Future studies may help understand whether changes in regional adiposity improves HF, particularly HF with preserved ejection fraction, risk predictions. Registration URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT00005485.

Clinical research is a discipline prone to the use of technical terms that may be particularly at risk for misunderstanding given the complex interpretation that is required. In this century, what is happening with the word ‘pragmatic’ when describing a randomized controlled trial (RCT) with medicines deserves a public reflection. Explanatory trials are conducted in ideal conditions to assess the comparative efficacy of interventions and are useful to explain whether interventions work. Pragmatic trials are those conducted in a way that resembles usual clinical practice conditions to assess the comparative effectiveness of interventions in a manner directly applicable for decision-makers. This, however, did not prevent 36% of authors of placebo-controlled, or prelicensing trials to identify their medicines RCTs as pragmatic in the title of their articles. The current situation is such that scientific literature has accepted that ‘pragmatic’ can convey the original meaning—that obtained in trials mimicking usual clinical practice—and a distorted one—that is focused on streamlining any trial procedure. Those involved in clinical trials should emphasize the importance of precision in the use of terms when describing RCTs through standardized solutions when possible. Unless clinical trial stakeholders agree when it would be correct to label an RCT as pragmatic, in a short period of time the term will be in danger of becoming meaningless. It is suggested that the Enhancing the Quality and Transparency of Health Research (EQUATOR) network, the Consolidated Standards of Reporting Trials (CONSORT) group and the International Committee of Medical Journal Editors (ICMJE) could address this topic and provide a consensus way forward.

Background: Iron deficiency (ID) has a prevalence of ≈40% to 50% among patients in heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction and is associated with worse prognosis. Several trials demonstrated that intravenous ferric carboxymaltose leads to early and sustained improvement in patient-reported outcomes and functional capacity in patients with HF with reduced ejection fraction with ID, yet morbidity and mortality data are limited. Methods: The objective of the HEART-FID trial (Ferric Carboxymaltose in Heart Failure With Iron Deficiency) is to assess efficacy and safety of ferric carboxymaltose compared with placebo as treatment for symptomatic HF with reduced ejection fraction with ID. HEART-FID is a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial enrolling ≈3014 patients at ≈300 international centers. Eligible patients are aged ≥18 years in stable chronic HF with New York Heart Association functional class II to IV symptoms, ejection fraction ≤40%, ID (ferritin Conclusions: The HEART-FID trial will inform clinical practice by clarifying the role of long-term treatment with intravenous ferric carboxymaltose, added to usual care, in ambulatory patients with symptomatic HF with reduced ejection fraction with ID. Registration: URL: https://www.clinicaltrials.gov ; Unique identifier: NCT03037931.

Background: Heart failure (HF) risk and the underlying risk factors vary by race. Traditional models for HF risk prediction treat race as a covariate in risk prediction and do not account for significant parameters such as cardiac biomarkers. Machine learning (ML) may offer advantages over traditional modeling techniques to develop race-specific HF risk prediction models and to elucidate important contributors of HF development across races. Methods: We performed a retrospective analysis of 4 large, community cohort studies (ARIC [Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities], DHS [Dallas Heart Study], JHS [Jackson Heart Study], and MESA [Multi-Ethnic Study of Atherosclerosis]) with adjudicated HF events. The study included participants who were >40 years of age and free of HF at baseline. Race-specific ML models for HF risk prediction were developed in the JHS cohort (for Black race–specific model) and White adults from ARIC (for White race–specific model). The models included 39 candidate variables across demographic, anthropometric, medical history, laboratory, and electrocardiographic domains. The ML models were externally validated and compared with prior established traditional and non–race-specific ML models in race-specific subgroups of the pooled MESA/DHS cohort and Black participants of ARIC. The Harrell C-index and Greenwood-Nam-D’Agostino χ 2 tests were used to assess discrimination and calibration, respectively. Results: The ML models had excellent discrimination in the derivation cohorts for Black (n=4141 in JHS, C-index=0.88) and White (n=7858 in ARIC, C-index=0.89) participants. In the external validation cohorts, the race-specific ML model demonstrated adequate calibration and superior discrimination (Black individuals, C-index=0.80–0.83; White individuals, C-index=0.82) compared with established HF risk models or with non–race-specific ML models derived with race included as a covariate. Among the risk factors, natriuretic peptide levels were the most important predictor of HF risk across both races, followed by troponin levels in Black and ECG-based Cornell voltage in White individuals. Other key predictors of HF risk among Black individuals were glycemic parameters and socioeconomic factors. In contrast, prevalent cardiovascular disease and traditional cardiovascular risk factors were stronger predictors of HF risk in White adults. Conclusions: Race-specific and ML-based HF risk models that integrate clinical, laboratory, and biomarker data demonstrated superior performance compared with traditional HF risk and non–race-specific ML models. This approach identifies distinct race-specific contributors of HF.

BACKGROUND Older patients with acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF) have severely impaired physical function (PF) and quality of life (QOL). However, relationships between impairments in PF and QOL are unknown but are relevant to clinical practice and trial design. METHODS We assessed 202 consecutive patients hospitalized with ADHF in the multicenter Rehabilitation Therapy in Older Acute HF Patients (REHAB-HF) Trial. PF measures included Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB) and 6-min walk distance (6MWD). Disease-specific QOL was assessed by the Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ). General QOL was assessed by the Short Form-12 (SF-12) and EuroQol-5D-5L. PF was evaluated as a predictor of QOL using stepwise regression adjusted for age, sex, race, and New York Heart Association class. RESULTS Participants were 72 ± 8 years, 54% women, 55% minority race, 52% with reduced ejection fraction, and body mass index 33 ± 9 kg/m2 . Participants had severe impairments in PF (6MWD 185 ± 99 m, SPPB 6.0 ± 2.5 units) and disease-specific QOL (KCCQ Overall Score 41 ± 21 and Physical Score 47 ± 24) and general QOL (SF-12 Physical Score 28 ± 9 and EuroQol Visual Analog Scale 57 ± 23). There were modest, statistically significant correlations between 6MWD and KCCQ Overall, KCCQ Physical Limitation, and SF-12 Physical Scores (r = 0.23, p

Background Although Black adults are more likely to die from coronary heart disease (CHD) compared with White adults, few studies have examined the relationship between cigarette smoking and CHD risk among Black adults. We evaluated the relationship between cigarette smoking, incident CHD, and coronary artery calcification in the JHS (Jackson Heart Study). Methods and Results We classified JHS participants without a history of CHD (n=4432) by self‐reported baseline smoking status into current, former (smoked at least 400 cigarettes/life) or never smokers at baseline (2000–2004). We further classified current smokers by smoking intensity (number of cigarettes smoked per day [1–19 or ≥20]) and followed for incident CHD (through 2016). Hazard ratios (HR) for incident CHD for each smoking group compared with never smokers were estimated with adjusted Cox proportional hazard regression models. At baseline, there were 548 (12.4%) current, 782 (17.6%) former, and 3102 (70%) never smokers. During follow‐up (median, 13.8 years), 254 participants developed CHD. After risk factor adjustment, CHD risk was significantly higher in current smokers compared with never smokers (HR, 2.11; 95% CI, 1.39–3.18); the difference between former smokers and never smokers (HR, 1.37; 95% CI, 1.0–1.90) did not achieve statistical significance. Among current smokers, we did not observe a dose‐response effect for CHD risk. Additionally, in multivariable logistic regression models with a subset of our analytic cohort, current smokers had greater odds of coronary artery calcification score >0 compared with never smokers (odds ratio, 2.63; 95% CI, 1.88–3.68). Conclusions In a large prospective cohort of Black adults, current smoking was associated with a >2‐fold increased risk of CHD over a median follow‐up of greater than a decade.

In this report, we identify the 10 most common causes of hospitalizations in the USA in 2005–2018 using the discharge data from the National Inpatient Sample database. We show that sepsis has been the leading cause of hospitalizations in the USA followed by heart failure, which has consistently been within the three most common causes of hospitalizations since 2005. In addition, we show a high burden of cardiovascular diseases as a cause of hospitalization over the study period with a consistent presence of cardiac arrhythmias as one of the top 10 causes of hospitalizations in the USA and emergence of acute myocardial infarction as one of the top 10 causes after 2014.

AIMS: Although models exist to predict amputation among people with type 2 diabetes with foot ulceration or infection, we aimed to develop a prediction model for a broader range of major adverse limb events (MALE)—including gangrene, revascularization, and amputation—among individuals with type 2 diabetes. METHODS: In a post-hoc analysis of data from the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial, we compared participants who experienced MALE with those who did not. A multivariable model was constructed and translated into a risk score. RESULTS: Among the 14,752 participants with type 2 diabetes in EXSCEL, 3.6% experienced MALE. Characteristics associated with increased risk of MALE were peripheral artery disease (PAD) (HR(adj) 4.83, 95% CI 3.94–5.92), prior foot ulcer (HR(adj) 2.16, 95% CI 1.63–2.87), prior amputation (HR(adj) 2.00, 95% CI 1.53–2.64), current smoking (HR(adj) 2.00, 95% CI 1.54–2.61), insulin use (HR(adj) 1.86, 95% CI 1.52–2.27), coronary artery disease (HR(adj) 1.67, 95% CI 1.38–2.03), and male sex (HR(adj) 1.64, 95% CI 1.31–2.06). Cerebrovascular disease, former smoking, age, glycated haemoglobin, race, and neuropathy were also associated significantly with MALE after adjustment. A risk score ranging from 6-96 points was constructed, with a C-statistic of 0.822 (95% CI 0.803–0.841). CONCLUSIONS: The majority of MALE occurred among participants with PAD, but participants without a history of PAD also experienced MALE. A risk score with good performance was generated. Although it requires validation in an external dataset, this risk score may be valuable in identifying patients requiring more intensive care and closer follow-up.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is increasingly prevalent, yet interventions and therapies to improve outcomes remain limited. There has been increasing attention towards the impact of comorbidities and physical functioning (PF) on poor clinical outcomes within this population. In this review, we summarize and discuss the literature on PF in HFpEF, its association with clinical and patient-centered outcomes, and future advances in the care of HFpEF with respect to PF. Multiple PF metrics have been demonstrated to provide prognostic value within HFpEF, yet the data are less robust compared with other patient populations, highlighting the need for further investigation. The evaluation and detection of poor PF provides a potential strategy to improve care in HFpEF, and future studies are needed to understand if modulating PF improves clinical and/or patient-reported outcomes. LAY SUMMARY: • Patients with heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) commonly have impaired physical functioning (PF) demonstrated by limitations across a wide range of common PF metrics.• Impaired PF metrics demonstrate prognostic value for both clinical and patient-reported outcomes in HFpEF, making them plausible therapeutic targets to improve outcomes.• Clinical trials are ongoing to investigate novel methods of detecting, monitoring, and improving impaired PF to enhance HFpEF care.Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is increasingly prevalent, yet interventions and therapies to improve outcomes remain limited. As such, there has been increasing focus on the impact of physical performance (PF) on clinical and patient-centered outcomes. In this review, we discuss the state of PF in patients with HFpEF by examining the multitude of PF metrics available, their respective strengths and limitations, and their associations with outcomes in HFpEF. We highlight future advances in the care of HFpEF with respect to PF, particularly regarding the evaluation and detection of poor PF.

Prediction of outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF) may inform prognosis, clinical decisions regarding treatment selection, and new trial planning. The VICTORIA trial included high-risk patients with HF and reduced ejection fraction and a recent worsening HF event. The study participants had an unusually high event rate despite usage of contemporary guideline-based therapies. To provide generalizable predictive data for a broad population with a recent worsening HF event, we focused on risk prognostication in the placebo group.Data from 2524 participants randomized to placebo with chronic HF (New York Heart Association class [NYHA] II-IV) and ejection fraction45% were studied and backward variable selection was used to create Cox proportional hazards models for clinical endpoints, selecting from 66 candidate predictors. Final model results were produced, accounting for missing data, non-linearities, and interactions with treatment. Optimism-corrected c-indices were calculated using 200 bootstrap samples.During a median follow-up of 10.4 months, the primary outcome of HF hospitalization or cardiovascular death occurred in 972 (38.5%) patients. Independent predictors of increased risk for the primary endpoint included HF characteristics (longer HF duration and worse NYHA class), medical history (prior myocardial infarction), and laboratory values (higher N-terminal pro-hormone B-type natriuretic peptide, bilirubin, urate; lower chloride and albumin). Optimism-corrected c-indices were 0.68 for the HF hospitalization/cardiovascular death model, 0.68 for HF hospitalization/all-cause death, 0.72 for cardiovascular death, and 0.73 for all-cause death.Predictive models developed in a large diverse clinical trial with comprehensive clinical and laboratory baseline data-including novel measures-performed well in high-risk HF patients who were receiving excellent guideline-based clinical care.Clinicaltrials.gov identifier, NCT02861534.Patients with heart failure may benefit from tools that help clinicians better understand patient's risk for future events like hospitalization. Relatively few risk models have been created after worsening of heart failure in a contemporary cohort. We provide insights on risk factors for clinical events from a recent large, global trial of patients with worsening heart failure to help clinicians better understand and communicate prognosis and select treatment options.

BACKGROUND: Improving diversity in clinical trials is essential in order to produce generalizable results. Although the importance of representation has become increasingly recognized, identifying strategies to approach this work remains elusive. This article reviews the proceedings of a multi-stakeholder conference about the current state of diversity in clinical trials and outlines actionable steps for improvement. METHODS: Conference attendees included representatives from the United States Food and Drug Administration (FDA), National Institutes of Health (NIH), practicing clinical investigators, pharmaceutical and device companies, community-based organizations, data analytics companies, and patient advocacy groups. At this virtual event, attendees were asked to consider key questions around best practices for engagement of underrepresented populations. RESULTS: Community engagement is an integral part of recruitment and retention of underrepresented groups. Decentralization of sites and use of digital tools can enhance the accessibility of clinical research. Finally, improving representation among investigators and clinical research staff may translate to diverse clinical trial participants. CONCLUSION: Improving diversity in clinical trials is an ethical and scientific imperative, which requires a multifaceted approach.

Background Left ventricular structure and function abnormalities may be an early marker of cardiomyopathy among African Americans with diabetes (DM) even in the absence of coronary artery disease (CAD), arrhythmia, valvular heart disease and end-stage renal disease (ESRD). This study examined the association of prediabetes (PDM), DM and HbA1c with left ventricular structure and function among Jackson Heart Study (JHS) participants without traditional risk factors. Methods Retrospective cross-sectional analyses of the association of PDM, DM and HbA1c with, left ventricular ejection fraction (LV EF), fractional shortening (LV FS), stroke volume index (SVI), cardiac index (CI), left ventricular end diastolic volume index (LVEDVI), left ventricular end systolic volume index (LVESVI), relative wall thickness (RWT), myocardial contraction fraction (MCF) and left ventricular mass index (LVMI). The study was conducted in 2234 adult JHS participants without preexisting CAD, arrhythmia, valvular heart disease or ESRD. Statistical analyses included descriptive, univariate and covariate adjusted linear regression analyses. Sensitivity analyses to explore the impact of hypertension on study outcomes were also carried out. Results DM compared with no DM was associated with lower, SVI (− 0.96 ml/m2, p = 0.029), LVEDVI (− 1.44 ml/m2p = 0.015), and MCF (− 1.90% p = 0.007) but higher CI (0.14 L/min/m2, p p = 0.002) and LVMI (2.29 g/m2, p = 0.009). After further control for DM duration, only CI remaining significantly higher for DM compared with no DM participants (0.12 L/min/m2, p = 0.009). PDM compared with no PDM was associated with lower, SVI (− 0.87 ml/m2, P = 0.024), LVEDVI (− 1.15 ml/m2p = 0.003) and LVESVI (− 0.62 ml/m2p = 0.025). HbA1c ≥ 8.0% compared with HbA1c 2, p = 0.004), LVEDVI (− 2.11 ml/m2p = 0.032) and MCF (− 2.94% p = 0.011) but higher CI (0.11 L/min/m2, p = 0.043) and RWT (0.01 cm, p = 0.035). Conclusions Glycemic status is associated with important left ventricular structure and function changes among African Americans without prior CAD, arrhythmia, valvular heart disease and ESRD. Longitudinal studies may further elucidate these relationships.

Randomized clinical trials initially used heart failure (HF) patients with low left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) to select study populations with high risk to enhance statistical power. However, this use of LVEF in clinical trials has led to oversimplification of the scientific view of a complex syndrome. Descriptive terms such as ‘HFrEF’ (HF with reduced LVEF), ‘HFpEF’ (HF with preserved LVEF), and more recently ‘HFmrEF’ (HF with mid-range LVEF), assigned on arbitrary LVEF cut-off points, have gradually arisen as separate diseases, implying distinct pathophysiologies. In this article, based on pathophysiological reasoning, we challenge the paradigm of classifying HF according to LVEF. Instead, we propose that HF is a heterogeneous syndrome in which disease progression is associated with a dynamic evolution of functional and structural changes leading to unique disease trajectories creating a spectrum of phenotypes with overlapping and distinct characteristics. Moreover, we argue that by recognizing the spectral nature of the disease a novel stratification will arise from new technologies and scientific insights that will shape the design of future trials based on deeper understanding beyond the LVEF construct alone.

Using latent class analysis (LCA) of EMPA-REG OUTCOME (BI 10773 [Empagliflozin] Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients), this study identified distinct phenotypes in subjects with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and cardiovascular (CV) disease and explored treatment effects across phenotypes.In the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial, empagliflozin reduced risk of CV death or hospitalization for heart failure (HHF) by 34% in subjects with T2D and CV disease. Among such subjects, there has been limited evaluation of clinical phenotypes.Overall, 7,020 participants were treated with empagliflozin 25 mg, 10 mg, or placebo. For this post hoc analysis, participants were randomly separated into training (two-thirds of patients) and validation (remaining one-third) sets. LCA identified 3 phenotype groups (n = 6,639 with complete data). The phenotype association with CV death or HHF and empagliflozin treatment effect across groups was explored by Cox regression (in training and validation sets).In the training set, phenotype group 1 (n = 1,463; 33.1%) included younger patients with shorter T2D duration and the highest estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR). Phenotype group 2 (n = 1,172; 26.5%) included more women with non-coronary artery disease. Phenotype group 3 (n = 1,785; 40.4%) included older patients with advanced coronary disease and the lowest eGFR. The risk of CV death varied across phenotypes (group 2 vs. 1: hazard ratio [HR]; 1.83; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.23 to 2.71; group 3 vs. 1: HR: 1.86; 95% CI: 1.30 to 2.67) with similar patterns for CV death or HHF. Consistent treatment effects of empagliflozin were seen across phenotypes in the training and validation sets (interaction p0.30).Among participants with T2D, this study identified 3 phenotypes with varying CV risk. The treatment effect across phenotypes reaffirms the robustness of CV death or HHF reduction with empagliflozin. (BI 10773 [Empagliflozin] Cardiovascular Outcome Event Trial in Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus Patients [EMPA-REG OUTCOME]; NCT01131676).

Objectives This study sought to evaluate the independent associations and interactions between high-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (hs-cTnI) and physical activity (PA) with risk of heart failure (HF) subtypes, HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) and HF with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Background Black adults are at high risk for developing HF. Physical inactivity and subclinical myocardial injury, as assessed by hs-cTnI concentration, are independent risk factors for HF. Methods Black adults from the Jackson Heart Study without prevalent HF who had hs-cTnI concentration and self-reported PA assessed at baseline were included. Adjusted Cox models were used to evaluate the independent and joint associations and interaction between hs-cTnI concentrations and PA with risk of HFpEF and HFrEF. Results Among 3,959 participants, 25.1% had subclinical myocardial injury (hs-cTnI ≥4 and ≥6 ng/l in women and men, respectively), and 48.2% were inactive (moderate-to-vigorous PA = 0 min/week). Over 12.0 years of follow-up, 163 and 150 participants had an incident HFpEF and HFrEF event, respectively. In adjusted analysis, higher hs-cTnI concentration (per 1-U log increase) was associated with higher risk of HFpEF (hazard ratio [HR]: 1.47; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.25 to 1.72]) and HFrEF (HR: 1.57; 95% CI: 1.35 to 1.83]). In contrast, higher PA (per 1-U log increase) was associated with a lower risk of HFpEF (HR: 0.93; 95% CI: 0.88 to 0.99]) but not HFrEF. There was a significant interaction between hs-cTnI and PA for risk of HFpEF (p interaction = 0.04) such that inactive participants with subclinical myocardial injury were at higher risk of HFpEF but active participants were not. Conclusions Among Black adults with subclinical myocardial injury, higher levels of PA were associated with attenuated risk of HFpEF.

The study compared quality outcomes, resource utilization, and costs in Medicare beneficiaries with chronic heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) with and without a worsening heart failure event (WHFE). This retrospective observational study evaluated claims data for two cohorts of Medicare beneficiaries with chronic HFrEF who were enrolled in Medicare Fee-For-Service (FFS) or Medicare Advantage (MA) plans. The index date was the first claim of HFrEF between October 2015-September 2017. Patients with WHFE were identified if they had IV diuretic use or hospitalization for HF during 12 months after index date; with remaining patients classified as non-WHFE. During follow-up, starting from the 13th month after HFrEF index date to end of follow-up, generalized linear models were used to adjust for patient characteristics to compare mean per patient per year (PPPY) quality outcomes, resource utilization, and costs between HFrEF patients with and without WHFE Of the 1,182,509 FFS and 28,645 MA patients with HFrEF, 34.2% and 32.5% developed WHFE, respectively. Compared to patients without WHFE, patients with WHFE had higher rates of all-cause 30-day readmissions (FFS: 42% versus 31%; MA: 41% versus 31%), hospitalizations (FFS: 2.27 versus 1.36; MA: 1.47 versus 0.78 PPPY) and ED visits (FFS: 1.82 versus 1.25; MA: 1.43 versus 0.96 PPPY); all comparisons P Medicare patients with chronic HFrEF experiencing a WHFE had worse quality outcomes as well as higher resource utilization and costs compared to those without WHFE, thus, suggesting the need for better treatments and interventions to manage these patients.

Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) continues to increase in prevalence with a 50% mortality rate within 3 years of diagnosis, but lacking effective evidence-based therapies. Specific echocardiographic markers are not typically used to trigger alarm before acute HFpEF decompensation. The goal of this study was to retrospectively track changes in echocardiographic markers leading to the time of incident HFpEF hospitalization.In a single-center, retrospective analysis, patients with HFpEF admitted between 2007 and 2014 were identified using the International Classification of Diseases, 9th Revision with search refined using the European Society of Cardiology HFpEF guidelines. Using linear mixed effects models, changes in echocardiographic markers preceding acute HF decompensation owing to incident HFpEF were analyzed. We report on an incident HFpEF cohort of 242 patients, extending 18 years retrospectively, and including 675 echocardiograms analyzed from the overall sample at 14 distinct time intervals before acute decompensation. The regression models demonstrated 3 echocardiographic markers with statistically significant increases across multiple time intervals including, arterial elastance (P = .006), right atrial pressure estimate (P.001), and right ventricular systolic pressure (P = .006). Other echocardiographic markers had individual time intervals with significant increases before acute decompensation, including (a) left atrial diameter, 8 to 10 years before HFpEF diagnosis, (b) left ventricular filling pressure 2 to 6 years before HFpEF diagnosis, (c) ventricular elastance 3 to 6 months before HFpEF diagnosis, and (d) ventricular elastance/arterial elastance as early as 10 to 20 years and as late as 3 to 6 months before HFpEF diagnosis. Furthermore, African Americans presented with incident HFpEF at an average younger age than White patients (65.6 ± 15.2 years vs. 76.7 years ± 11.7, P.001).Noninvasive echocardiographic markers associated with incident HFpEF diagnosis showed long, mid, and acute range, significant changes as far back as 10 to 20 years and as close as 3 to 6 months before acute HFpEF decompensation. Including a diverse study cohort is critical to understanding the phenotypic differences of HFpEF. This hypothesis-generating study identified a novel approach to identifying trends in echocardiographic markers that may be used as a signal of impending incident HFpEF.

Background Ultrafiltration is not commonly used because of higher incidence of worsening renal function without improved decongestion. We examined differential outcomes of high versus low fluid removal and preserved versus reduced ejection fraction (EF) in CARRESS-HF (Cardiorenal Rescue Study in Acute Decompensated Heart Failure). Methods and Results Baseline characteristics in the ultrafiltration arm were compared according to 24-hour ultrafiltration-based fluid removal above versus below the median. Patients were stratified by EF (40%). We compared clinical parameters of clinical decongestion during the hospitalization based on initial (40% group demonstrated larger increases of change in creatinine (P=0.023) and aldosterone (P=0.038) from baseline to 96 hours. Among patients with EF >40%, those with above median fluid removal (n=17) when compared with below median (n=17) had an increased rate of the combined end point (87.5% versus 47.1%, P=0.014). Conclusions In patients with acute heart failure, higher initial fluid removal with ultrafiltration had no association with worsening renal function. In patients with EF >40%, ultrafiltration was associated with worsening renal function irrespective of fluid removal rate and higher initial fluid removal was associated with higher rates of adverse clinical outcomes, highlighting variable responses to decongestive therapy. Dr. Fudim is supported by an American Heart Association Grant, 17MCPRP33460225; he consults for Coridea, AxonTherapies, Galvani, and Daxor. Dr. Greene has received research support from a Heart Failure Society of America/Emergency Medicine Foundation Acute Heart Failure Young Investigator Award funded by Novartis, Amgen, Bristol-Myers Squibb and Novartis; and serves on an advisory board for Amgen. Dr. Sharma has received research support from the Fonds de la recherche en sante du Quebec (FRSQ)-Junior 1, Jean Roy award in Cardiology (McGill University), Akcea, Pharma, Solutions, Alberta Innovates Health Solutions, Bayer-Canadian Cardiovascular Society, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Roche Diagnostics, and Takeda. Dr. Verbrugge was supported by a Fellowship of the Belgian American Educational Foundation. Dr. Martens has received consultancy fees from Astra-Zeneca, Bayer, Boehringer-Ingelheim, Novartis, and Vifor Pharma and an unrestricted research grant from Vifor Pharma. Dr. Grodin receives research support from the Texas Health Resources Clinical Scholars fund and has received consultancy fees from Pfizer, Inc. Dr. Hernandez receives Grant/Research Support; Company Relationship; AstraZeneca, Bristol-Myers Squibb, GlaxoSmithKline, Luitpold Pharmaceuticals, Merck, Novartis. Honoraria; Company Relationship; Bayer, Boston Scientific, Novartis. Dr. Felker has received research funding from Otsuka, Novartis, Roche Diagnostics, Amgen, Merck, American Heart Association, and the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute; and has served as a consultant for Novartis, Roche Diagnostics, Amgen, Trevena, Cytokinetics, Madeliene, Myokardia, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Stealth Biotherapeutics, and GlaxoSmithKline. Dr. Mentz receives research support from the National Institutes of Health (U01HL125511-01A1, U10HL110312, and R01AG045551-01A1), Akros, Amgen, AstraZeneca, Bayer, GlaxoSmithKline, Gilead, Luitpold, Medtronic, Merck, Novartis, Otsuka, and ResMed; honoraria from Abbott, AstraZeneca, Bayer, Janssen, Luitpold Pharmaceuticals, Medtronic, Merck, Novartis, and ResMed; and has served on an advisory board for Amgen, Luitpold, Merck, and Boehringer Ingelheim. The remaining authors have no disclosures to report. Fudim, M (corresponding author), 2301 Erwin Rd, Durham, NC 27713 USA. marat.fudim@gmail.com

We investigated associations between timing of sacubitril/valsartan initiation and postdischarge adherence among patients hospitalized for heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF). Clinical trials support initiation of sacubitril/valsartan among patients hospitalized with HFrEF. The association between timing of initiation and postdischarge adherence is unknown.We analyzed patients hospitalized for HFrEF (EF of ≤40%) within the Get With The Guidelines Heart Failure registry linked with Medicare claims between October 2015 and September 2017 who were eligible for sacubitril/valsartan. Follow-up was through December 2018. Patients were grouped by timing of sacubitril/valsartan initiation. Sacubitril/valsartan adherence at 90 and 365 days after discharge was assessed by calculating proportion of days covered (PDC) using medication fills. Among 4666 patients, 108 (2.3%) were continued on sacubitril/valsartan (on sacubitril/valsartan at admission and discharge), 191 (4.1%) were initiated as inpatients, 130 (2.8%) were initiated at discharge, and 4237 (90.1%) were discharged without sacubitril/valsartan. Median (25th, 75th) proportion of days covered through 90 days among those continued, initiated as inpatients, and initiated at discharge was 0.9 (0.6-0.1), 0.3 (0.0-0.7), and 0.0 (0.0-0.7), respectively (P.001). Patients discharged without sacubitril/valsartan had very low rates of any sacubitril/valsartan fills within 90 and 365 days of discharge (2.1% and 7.7% of surviving patients, respectively).In 2015-2017 US clinical practice, more than 90% of eligible patients hospitalized for HFrEF were discharged without sacubitril/valsartan. Patients initiated as inpatients had a higher postdischarge proportion of days covered than patients initiated at discharge. Patients discharged without sacubitril/valsartan were unlikely to receive it during follow-up. These findings highlight the importance of initiating sacubitril/valsartan during hospitalization to improve the quality of care.

Background: Social determinants of health (SDH) are associated with cardiovascular disease outcomes, but the overall influence of SDH on end-stage heart failure has not been well-described. Methods: In the Palliative Care in Heart Failure (PAL-HF) study, 150 advanced HF patients were randomized to usual care or usual care plus palliative care intervention. In the present analysis, quality of life (QoL) metrics [Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire (KCCQ) and Functional Assessment of Chronic Illness Therapy (FACIT) Palliative care (PAL)], anxiety and depression (Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale; HADS Depression, HADS Anxiety) and clinical outcomes (mortality, rehospitalization) were examined based on SDH (marital status, employment status, economic security, education level). For statistical analyses, patients were grouped per independent variable of interest in dichotomous categories (partner vs. no partner, employed/retired vs. unemployed, patient-reported economic constraints vs. no constraints, education beyond high school (HS) vs. less than HS). Repeated measures models were used to compare QoL metrics between SDH groups and Cox models for clinical outcomes. Results: At 6-month follow-up, having a partner, being employed, education beyond HS, and having economic security were not associated with better QoL or anxiety/depression metrics in advanced HF patients. Unemployment and education less than HS were associated with increased 6-month rehospitalization (both p=0.03). SDH measures were not associated with mortality (all p>0.05) (Table). Conclusions: In this analysis of PAL-HF patients, SDH were not associated with improved QoL or anxiety/depression metrics over 6 months. However, being employed and education beyond HS were associated with reduced rehospitalization. Further studies accounting for SDH are needed to better determine how these factors should be incorporated into palliative care interventions in advanced HF.

Introduction: Elevation in the inflammatory marker high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) is associated with worse outcomes in patients with heart failure (HF). We aimed to determine if baseline or trajectory of hsCRP levels over time predict incident HF hospitalization. Methods: Jackson Heart Study (JHS) participants’ (n=4203 African Americans) hsCRP levels were measured over 3 visits (visit 1: 2000 to 2004; visit 2: 2005 to 2008; visit 3: 2009 to 2013). We assessed the association of a single hsCRP level measurement at baseline (visit 1) with incident HF hospitalization using Cox proportional hazard models. Furthermore, we assessed the association of trajectory of hsCRP over repeated measurements (visit 1-3) with incident HF using a joint model, which incorporates estimated hsCRP from a linear mixed effects model into a Cox hazards model to predict incident HF hospitalization while incorporating trajectory of hsCRP over visits. All hazard ratios (HR) are presented as an increase in hsCRP by 1 standard deviation on a Log 2 scale. Results: At baseline, mean age of participants was 55±13 years, 63.4% were women, and mean hsCRP level was 0.5±0.7 mg/dl. Over a median follow-up of 12 years, 353 (8.4%) participants were hospitalized with incident HF. After adjustment for covariates, baseline hsCRP was not associated with increased risk of incident HF hospitalization (Table, p>0.05). However, increases in hsCRP levels on follow-up were associated with a significantly increased risk of incident HF hospitalization (Table, p Conclusions: While an elevated hsCRP level at one time point may not be associated with incident HF, the increasing trajectory of change in hsCRP over time is predictive of increased risk for incident HF hospitalization in African Americans. These data support the role of increased inflammatory status in the development of heart failure.

Introduction: People with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) have a large burden of cardiovascular (CV) morbidity and mortality, but the likelihood of these outcomes varies and existing risk calculators do not fully capture risk for individuals. Hypothesis: Circulating metabolites characterizing mitochondrial dysfunction may be novel predictors for CV outcomes. Methods: We performed targeted mass-spectrometry metabolite profiling (45 acylcarnitines, 15 amino acids) on baseline plasma samples from 568 cases (498 with major adverse cardiac events (MACE) and 131 with incident hospitalization for heart failure (hHF)) and 568 matched controls (without events) from the patients assigned to placebo in Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS). Matching was based on history of HF, coronary artery disease, BMI, hemoglobin A1C, creatinine, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting status and ejection fraction. Principal components analysis (PCA) was used for dimensionality reduction, and conditional logistic regression to determine association of PCA factors with MACE or hHF and for individual metabolites within significant factors (false discovery rate q Results: Of 12 PCA-derived metabolite factors, three were associated significantly with MACE or hHF; these factors were composed of: 1) short-chain dicarboxylacylcarnitines and long chain acylcarnitines (OR 1.50, q=0.03); 2) medium chain acylcarnitines (OR 1.28, q=0.001); 3) C5:1 and one medium-chain dicarboxylacylcarnitine (OR 1.17, q=0.03). Of these three factors, none were significantly associated with the individual components of MACE. Ten individual metabolites, including short- and medium-chain dicarboxylacylcarnitines and medium- and long-chain acylcarnitines, remained significantly associated with MACE (q Conclusions: Metabolites reporting on dysregulated mitochondrial fatty acid oxidation and endoplasmic reticulum stress are elevated in individuals with DM who progress to MACE and/or hHF. These biomarkers may improve CV risk prediction in DM patients and help highlight emerging risk mechanisms.

Introduction: Bedside evaluation of congestion remains important in both heart failure (HF) with reduced and preserved ejection fraction (HFrEF and HFpEF). Whether presence of physical exam findings have changed over time, or if prognosis of physical examination differs by HF type is uncertain. Methods: From 2005-2014, the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study conducted hospital surveillance of acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Events were verified by physician review, and clinical data were abstracted from the medical record. We examined presence of 3 physical exam findings suggesting congestion: lower extremity edema, jugular venous distension, and pulmonary rales > 1/3 of the lung field. Analyses were weighted by sampling fractions. Results: Of 24,937 hospitalizations for ADHF (mean age 75 years, 53% women, 32% black), 47% were HFpEF. Presence of edema increased from 2005-2009 to 2010-2014, both for HFpEF (66% to 72%; P for annual trend = 0.002) and HFrEF (62% to 67%; P for annual trend = 0.009), while presence of rales and jugular distention remained stable. There were 2640 (11%) and 7766 (31%) deaths within 28 days and 1 year of hospitalization, respectively. Patients with HFpEF and all 3 physical exam signs had a greater risk of short- and long-term mortality ( Figure ). After adjustments for demographics and length of stay, there was a differential association between clinical signs and 28-day mortality by HF type ( P for interaction = 0.02). Presence of all 3 vs. Conclusion: The presence of edema on physical examination of patients with ADHF has increased in recent years, both for HFpEF and HFrEF. However, the prognostic utility of physical exam signs of congestion may differ by HF type.

Background: Lower serum vitamin D3 (VitD3) concentration has been associated with cardiovascular disease. However, the associations between serum VitD3 levels and left ventricular (LV) structure and function and heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) have not been well-characterized community. The prevalence of VitD3 deficiency is higher among African Americans than in other race/ethnicity groups. We hypothesized that serum VitD3 levels are associated with LV concentric remodeling and incident heart failure (HF) in African Americans. Methods and Results: Among 4872 African Americans in the Jackson Heart Study cohort, we investigated the relationships between serum VitD3 levels and LV structure and function, evaluated with echocardiography, and incident HF hospitalization, categorized either HF with reduced EF (HFrEF: EF Conclusion: In this community-based African American cohort, lower serum VitD3 levels were associated with LV concentric remodeling and incident HF, mainly HFpEF. Further investigation is required to examine whether the supplementation of VitD3 can prevent LV concentric remodeling and incident HFpEF in African Americans.

Introduction: To date, there are limited data on the potential role of proteomic biomarkers to predict future cardiovascular (CV) events among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Hypothesis: Specific protein biomarkers will be predictive of major adverse CV events (MACE) and incident heart failure hospitalization (HFH) among patients with DM. Methods: Using the Olink aptamer-based platform, we performed proteomic profiling (>700 proteins) on 440 paired cases and matched controls from placebo-assigned participants in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin (TECOS). Cases were defined as having met the primary composite outcome of MACE or incident HFH and matched to controls on baseline prevalent heart failure, coronary artery disease, BMI, hemoglobin A1C, creatinine, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, fasting status and ejection fraction. Conditional logistic regression was used to determine the association between log-transformed relative protein expression and incident MACE or HFH. False-discovery-rate (FDR) was used to adjust for multiple comparisons. Results: We identified three specific proteins that were significantly associated with prevalent MACE or HFH: METRNL, Notch 3, and ROR1 (OR 2.1, 1.6, 1.7 and q-value 0.01, 0.02, and 0.05 respectively) (Figure 1). METRNL, in particular, performed similarly to the established biomarker NT-proBNP (Figure 1). When MACE and HFH were analyzed separately, METRNL, in particular, remained strongly associated with both outcomes (OR 2.0, p Conclusions: Three novel protein biomarkers, in particular METRNL (a circulating adipokine that regulates insulin-sensitivity), may identify diabetic patients at high risk for subsequent HF and MACE. Additional studies are needed to replicate these findings and uncover the biologic mechanism linking adipokine signaling and heart failure.

Background: Several recent heart failure trials enrolled patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) who had a worsening heart failure (WHF) event. Aim: To describe the characteristics and outcomes of patients with HFrEF and a WHF event at a large tertiary medical center. Methods: We identified patients 18-85 years of age with chronic symptomatic HFrEF (EF ≤35% and ≥2 HF encounters in the prior 18 months) treated at Duke University between Jan 2009-Dec 2018 through the Duke Echo Lab Database. A WHF event was defined as either a hospitalization or ED visit for HF in the prior 12 mos. A set of exclusion criteria [e.g., renal dysfunction, left ventricular assist device (LVAD), heart transplant] were applied to patients with a WHF event to generate a patient cohort similar to those enrolled in contemporary HF trials. We did not restrict the cohort based on BP or BNP levels since these vary over time. Baseline characteristics and outcomes including death and hospitalization were assessed. Results: Of 4846 unique patients with HFrEF, 3668 (76%) had a WHF event in the year prior to index echo. Sequentially, patients with GFR 2 (n=458), LVAD (n=291), or heart transplant (n=95) were excluded; 2824/4846 (58%) remained in the WHF study population. HFrEF patients with WHF were typically men (68%) with median age of 65 years (IQR 54, 73) and low EF (EF Conclusions: In patients with chronic HFrEF at Duke University, 76% had a WHF event in the past year and 58% met several of the key eligibility criteria of contemporary HF trials. Patients with recent WHF had a high burden of comorbidities and very high event rates.

This cohort study evaluates the performance of the pooled cohort equations in estimating the risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk by body mass index range., Key Points Question What is the performance of the pooled cohort equations (PCE) for estimation of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk by body mass index? Findings In this pooled analysis of 8 longitudinal cohort studies that included 37 311 adults, the PCE demonstrated acceptable model discrimination but significantly overestimated risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in individuals with higher body mass index, with better calibration near clinical decision thresholds and less optimal calibration for the groups at highest risk. Incorporation of usual clinical measures of obesity did not result in more accurate risk estimation compared with standard PCE. Meaning These findings suggest that the PCE could be used as a risk-estimation tool to guide prevention and treatment strategies in adults across clinical BMI categories, but may overestimate risk of ASCVD for individuals in overweight and obese categories., Importance Obesity is a global health challenge and a risk factor for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASVCD). Performance of the pooled cohort equations (PCE) for ASCVD risk by body mass index (BMI; calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is unknown. Objective To assess performance of the PCE across clinical BMI categories. Design, Setting, and Participants This cohort study used pooled individual-level data from 8 community-based, prospective, longitudinal cohort studies with 10-year ASCVD event follow-up from 1996 to 2016. We included all adults ages 40 to 79 years without baseline ASCVD or statin use, resulting in a sample size of 37 311 participants. Data were analyzed from August 2017 to July 2020. Exposures Participant BMI category: underweight (

Aims Heart failure with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) is a heterogeneous condition, and tissue congestion manifested by oedema is not present in all patients. We compared clinical characteristics, exercise capacity, and outcomes in patients with HFpEF with and without oedema. Methods and results This study was a post hoc analysis of pooled data of patients with left ventricular ejection fraction of ≥50% enrolled in the DOSE, CARRESS‐HF, RELAX, ATHENA, ROSE, INDIE, and NEAT trials. Patients were dichotomized by the severity of oedema. Cox proportional hazard regression and generalized linear regression models were used to assess associations between oedema, symptoms, and clinical outcomes. The ambulatory cohort included 393 patients (228 with and 165 without oedema), and the hospitalized cohort included 338 patients (249 with ≥moderate oedema and 89 with mild or none). Among ambulatory patients, patients with oedema had a higher body mass index (35.2 kg/m2 [inter‐quartile range, IQR 30.5, 41.6] vs. 31.6 kg/m2 [IQR 27.9, 36.3], P

We examined the relationship between pain severity and outcomes in patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) in the HF-ACTION randomized controlled trial. Trends of health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures grouped by patients' self-reported baseline bodily pain severity were compared using correlation tests, and the association between pain severity and clinical outcomes (including a primary composite endpoint of all-cause mortality and all-cause hospitalization) was assessed using multivariable adjusted analyses. Of the 2310 patients, 22.9% reported no pain, 45.8% very mild/mild, 24.9% moderate, and 6.4% severe/very severe. Greater pain severity was associated with worse HRQoL measures (EuroQoL-5D-3L and Kansas City Cardiomyopathy Questionnaire; both p0.0001). Compared to those reporting no pain, patients reporting severe/very severe pain had greater risk for the primary endpoint (adjusted hazard ratio 1.42, 95% confidence interval 1.11-1.83, p = 0.01). In patients with HFrEF, greater pain severity was associated with worse HRQoL and clinical outcomes. Trial Registration: NCT00047437.

Background In a randomized control trial, Palliative Care in Heart Failure (PAL-HF) improved heart failure–related quality of life, though cost-effectiveness remains unknown. The aim of this study was to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the PAL-HF trial, which provided outpatient palliative care to patients with advanced heart failure. Methods and Results Outcomes for usual care and PAL-HF strategies were compared using a Markov cohort model over 36 months from a payer perspective. The model parameters were informed by PAL-HF trial data and supplemented with meta-analyses and Medicare administrative data. Outcomes included hospitalization, place of death, Medicare expenditures, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios. Simulated mortality rates were the same for PAL-HF and usual care cohorts, at 89.7% at 36 months. In the base case analysis, the PAL-HF intervention resulted in an incremental gain of 0.03 QALYs and an incremental cost of $964 per patient for an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $29,041 per QALY. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, an intervention cost of up to $140 per month is cost effective at $50,000 per QALY. Of 1000 simulations, the PC intervention had a 66.1% probability of being cost effective at a $50,000 willingness-to-pay threshold assuming no decrease in hospitalization. In a scenario analysis, PAL-HF decreased payer spending through reductions in noncardiovascular hospitalizations. Conclusions These results from this single-center trial are encouraging that palliative care for advanced heart failure is an economically attractive intervention. Confirmation of these findings in larger multicenter trials will be an important part of developing the evidence to support more widespread implementation of the PAL-HF palliative care intervention.

Previous studies suggested that depressive symptoms and sleep quality may be important for long-term clinical outcomes following cardiothoracic transplant. Few studies, however, have systematically examined objective markers of these behavioral factors among ambulatory transplant recipients, or their association with clinical outcomes.We examined sleep quality and depressive symptoms with subsequent clinical outcomes (hospitalizations and death) in a sample of 66 lung or heart transplant recipients using a single-center, prospective cohort study. Recipients were assessed at approximately 6 months post-transplant and completed one week of actigraphy assessment to examine sleep quality and self-report measures of mood (Centers for Epidemiologic Studies of Depression [CESD]). Recipients were followed for clinical outcomes.At 6-months following transplantation, recipients spent the majority of daytime activity at a sedentary level (61% of daily activity [SD = 10]) and elevated depressive symptoms were common (subclinical = 17%, mild = 12%, or moderate = 8%). Over a median follow-up of 4.5 years (IQR = 0.9, 5.1), 51 participants (77%) had at least one unplanned hospitalization and 11 (17%) participants died. In addition, sleep efficiency measurements suggested that a subset of participants exhibited suboptimal sleep (mean efficiency = 87% [SD = 7]). Poorer sleep quality, indexed by lower sleep efficiency and greater sleep fragmentation, was associated with greater depressive symptoms (r's = 0.37-0.50, P .01). Better sleep quality at 6-months (HR = 0.75 [0.60, 0.95], P = .015), including sleep efficiency (HR = 0.74 [0.56, 0.99], P = .041) and sleep fragmentation (HR = 0.71 [0.53, 0.95], P = .020) were associated with lower risk of hospitalization or death. Compared with individuals without elevated depressive symptoms or sleep difficulties, individuals with either factor (HR = 1.72 [1.05, 2.81], P = .031) or both factors (HR = 2.37 [1.35, 4.18], P = .003) exhibited greater risk of clinical events in adjusted analyses.Sleep quality is associated with depressive symptoms among cardiothoracic transplant recipients and enhances the prognostic association between biobehavioral risk factors and clinical outcomes.

Recognizing that body surface area (BSA) is a commonly used metric to inform medication dosing across fields of medicine, it is possible that patients with heart failure with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) with higher BSA may be more likely to tolerate higher doses of GDMT. Using the HF-ACTION trial, we examined (1) the relationship between BSA and achievement of target dosing of evidence-based beta-blocker and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor (ACEI) therapy, and (2) the associations and interactions between target dosing, clinical outcomes, and BSA.

Based on the largest publicly available all-payer inpatient database in the United States, this study sought to evaluate real-world outcomes after bariatric surgery among patients with heart failure.

Our analysis from a national registry shows that compared to cancer, cardiovascular disease patients referred to palliative care are a decade older, have worse functional status and clinician-estimated prognosis. Both groups have very high symptom burden, with cardiovascular disease patients experiencing more dyspnea while pain, nausea, and fatigue are more common in cancer.

Cardiovascular (CV) outcome studies of glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor agonists (GLP-1 RAs) have shifted the paradigm of type 2 diabetes management given their benefits regarding a reduction in major adverse CV events. However, the relationship between GLP-1 RAs and coronary revascularization remains poorly understood. In this EXSCEL post-hoc analysis, we used univariate Cox proportional models and Kaplan Meier survival analysis to evaluate the effect of once-weekly exenatide (EQW) on a composite outcome of hospitalization for acute coronary syndrome (ACS) or coronary revascularization. Similar models were utilized to evaluate the relationship between significant participant characteristics within the entire study population and the composite outcome. Of the 14,736 participants in EXSCEL with complete follow-up data, 1642 (11.1%) experienced an ACS or coronary revascularization event during a median follow-up of 3.3 years (interquartile range, 2.3-4.4). EQW had no effect on hospitalization for ACS or coronary revascularization (HR 1.00, 95% CI 0.91-1.10). Among EXSCEL participants, enrollment in Latin America (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.43-0.60) and a history of peripheral artery disease (HR 0.79, 95% CI 0.70-0.90) were associated with a reduced risk for coronary revascularization, whereas enrollment in North America (HR 1.92, 95% CI 1.74-2.12), a history of CV disease (HR 3.24, 95% CI 2.78-3.78), and a previous myocardial infarction (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.39-1.71) were associated with increased risk for study end points. EQW had no association with hospitalization for ACS or coronary revascularization. Participant enrollment location and CV disease burden may play a role in the variable CV efficacy of GLP-1 RAs that has been observed in trials thus far.