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We estimated the 10-year incidence of major weight gain (a gain in body mass index of greater than or equal to 5 kg/m2 and overweight (a body mass index of greater than or equal to 27.8 for men and greater than or equal to 27.3 for women) in US adults using data from the First National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. Persons aged 25 to 74 years at baseline were reweighed a decade after their initial examination (men, 3727; women, 6135). The incidence of major weight gain was twice as high in women and was highest in persons aged 25 to 34 years (men, 3.9%; women, 8.4%). Initially overweight women aged 25 to 44 years had the highest incidence of major weight gain of any subgroup (14.2%). For person not overweight at baseline (men, 2760; women, 4295), the incidence of becoming overweight was similar in both sexes and was highest in those aged 35 to 44 years (men, 16.3%; women, 13.5%). We conclude that obesity prevention should begin among adults in their early 20s and that special emphasis is needed for young women who are already overweight.

We used data from 21 states that participated in the 1985 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System to compare state-specific per capita self-reported alcohol consumption and the prevalence of three drinking behaviors with state-specific per capita sales. The correlation coefficient for per capita sales and per capita self-reported consumption for the 21 states was 0.81. Per capita sales were also significantly correlated with the prevalence of self-reported heavier drinking, binge drinking, and drinking and driving; the corresponding correlation coefficients were 0.74, 0.59, and 0.51. These findings suggest that states with higher per capita sales of alcohol also have higher rates of self-reported consumption and drinking patterns suggestive of high-risk behavior.

In this study liver cancer deaths that could be attributed to certain risk factors were calculated. Applying population attributable risk methodology, the attributable risk of liver cancer was estimated for alcohol use, hepatitis B viral exposure, and occupational and industrial exposures. We found that these three risk factors accounted for 38% of liver cancer mortality in Wisconsin; 29% was attributable to alcohol consumption, 7% to occupational exposures, and 2% to hepatitis B viral infection. More than half of liver cancer mortality, however, was not accounted for by the three risk factors studied.

The incidence of Reye syndrome has been decreasing in Michigan, perhaps as a result of decreased aspirin use among children. To evaluate possible changes in the frequency of aspirin use, 199 families in Tecumseh, MI, with children younger than 18 years of age were interviewed by telephone in February 1981 and again in February 1983. Based on the reported use of medications for colds or influenza between 1981 and 1983, fewer parents gave aspirin (56% v 25%), but acetaminophen use did not change (59% v 55%). Younger parents and parents who had heard of the association between aspirin and Reye syndrome were more likely to stop giving aspirin. More parents chose to use either no medication or medications containing neither aspirin nor acetaminophen (6% v 32%) for the treatment of colds or influenza. Approximately 90% of parents who chose not to give aspirin for fever also gave medications for colds or influenza that did not contain aspirin. These results suggest that fewer children are receiving aspirin during illnesses that may precede Reye syndrome. The associated decrease in the incidence of Reye syndrome tends to support the hypothesis that the use of aspirin increases the risk for the development of Reye syndrome.

Use of alcohol is an important risk factor for fatal injuries. However, little information on the relationship between self-reported alcohol use and subsequent risk of fatal injury is available. Therefore, we examined the relationship between the usual number of drinks consumed per occasion and the incidence of fatal injuries in a cohort of US adults. Using data on self-reported alcohol use obtained from 13,251 adults who were included in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey Epidemiologic Follow-up Study (mean length of follow-up, 9.3 years), we calculated the incidence of fatal injury according to the usual number of drinks consumed per occasion. After we adjusted for the effects of age, sex, race, and education, persons who consumed five or more drinks per occasion were nearly twice as likely to die from injuries (relative risk, 1.9; 95% confidence interval, 1.0 to 3.5) than persons who drank fewer than five drinks per occasion. A dose-response relationship was observed between the usual number of drinks consumed per occasion and risk of fatal injury, with persons who reported drinking nine or more drinks per occasion being 3.3 times more likely to die from injuries (95% confidence interval, 1.3 to 8.3). These data demonstrate the impact of alcohol use on mortality from injuries in the United States and suggest that self-reported alcohol consumption is an important indicator of risk for fatal injury.

Alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes result in thousands of deaths and serious injuries each year. For effective intervention in this problem, it is important to understand the epidemiology of "drinking and driving." To study this behavior, we analyzed the self-reports of 34,395 respondents in the 26 states conducting behavioral risk factor surveillance during 1986. An estimated 4.1% of the survey population and 7.2% of drinkers reported drinking and driving at least once in the month before the survey. In general, the prevalence of drinking and driving was highest among men, young adults, and divorced or separated persons. States with the highest prevalence of drinking and driving tended to cluster in the north-central region of the United States. In 15 states conducting surveillance from 1984 to 1986, the overall prevalence of drinking and driving changed little during this period. However, among persons less than 25-years old, the prevalence decreased. Efforts to deter drinking and driving are likely to reduce the number of motor vehicle crashes and should include both legal sanctions and greater public education about the dangers of this behavior.

Using data from the 1985 National Health Interview Survey for persons aged 25-64 years, we controlled simultaneously for socioeconomic status (SES), demographic factors, and race in multivariate logistic regression analyses. We found that the odds of ever smoking are not higher for Blacks compared with Whites, when the other variables are controlled. By contrast, the odds of heavy smoking for Blacks are far less than for Whites, while Blacks are significantly less likely than Whites to quit smoking regardless of SES or demographic factors. Smoking cessation and prevention programs must be planned with these behavioral, SES, and demographic differences in mind.

An epidemiological model of tuberculosis, based on the natural history of tuberculosis and the control programmes in Indonesia, was constructed. This model was used for estimating future tuberculosis-prevented cases and costs for three treatment strategies--the 100% standard course, the 100% short course, and the existing strategy (a combination of 65% standard course and 35% short course)--in accordance with the master plan of the Indonesian Government's tuberculosis control programme. A cost-effectiveness analysis of the three strategies confirmed that the short-course strategy was the most cost-effective. Sensitivity analysis, which applied a broad range of parameters, continued to confirm the short-course strategy as the most cost-effective. If the short-course strategy had been applied in 1980 instead of the existing strategy (using the most likely parameters), the short-course strategy would prevent 1.8 million sputum-positive cases and would save 61.0 million dollars by the year 2000.

To investigate historical trends of cigarette smoking among Mexican-Americans, Cuban-Americans, and Puerto Rican-Americans, we conducted a birth cohort analysis of smoking prevalence by using smoking histories of 8286 adults and adolescents from the 1982-1983 Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We constructed smoking prevalence curves for men and women among successive ten-year birth cohorts. Birth cohort-specific prevalence rates were higher for men than for women. Rates, however, decreased among successive cohorts of men. Conversely, rates increased among successive cohorts of Cuban-American and Puerto Rican-American women. For example, peak rates among the 1911 through 1920 cohorts were 26% (Cuban-American women) and 25% (Puerto Rican-American women) compared with peak rates of 43% and 52%, respectively, among comparable groups from 1951 through 1960. These results demonstrate that despite a reduction of cigarette smoking among successive cohorts of Hispanic men, Hispanic women have made little progress or have actually increased their cigarette smoking.

Physicians can play an important role in smoking cessation because they have frequent contact with smokers and because most smokers believe that a physician's advice is important in the decision to quit. Therefore, to determine smokers' perceptions of physician involvement in smoking cessation, we analyzed aggregate data from two random statewide surveys of 5875 Michigan adults. Of smokers who had seen a physician in the previous year, only 44% reported that they had ever been told to quit smoking by a physician. Young male smokers were the least likely (30%) to have been told to quit. Smokers who were hypertensive, obese, diabetic, sedentary, or users of oral contraceptives were no more likely to have been told to quit than smokers without these additional cardiovascular risks. Conversely, smokers who had survived a myocardial infarction or stroke were more likely to have been told to quit than smokers who had not suffered these events (73% vs 43%). Most smokers do not perceive physicians to be even minimally involved in their efforts to quit. Physicians need to increase their efforts in counseling smokers to quit before smoking-related diseases result, especially for smokers with additional risk factors for cardiovascular disease.

An unusual outbreak of measles occurred in 1982 in a pediatrician's office in Muskegon, Mich. Three children, who had arrived at the office 60 to 75 minutes after a child with measles had departed, developed measles. Using a model based on airborne transmission, it is estimated that the index patient was producing 144 units of infection (quanta) per minute while in the office. Characteristics such as coughing, increased warm air recirculation, and low relative humidity may have increased the likelihood of transmission. Adequate immunization of all patients and staff, respiratory isolation and prompt care of all suspected cases, and adequate fresh-air ventilation should decrease the risk of airborne transmission of measles in this setting. Airborne transmission may occur more often than previously suspected, a possibility that should be considered when evaluating current measles control strategies.

It is important to minimize the costs and risks associated with unnecessary prophylaxis of health care workers. We studied the process of providing rabies postexposure prophylaxis following the 24-day hospitalization of a rabies-infected patient. Of 209 persons who cared for the patient, only 12 (6%) reported high-risk contact, and treatment was recommended for them. Unnecessary prophylaxis was limited to 35 persons (18%) who did not report high-risk contacts but who requested treatment because of their uncertainty about the degree of exposure. These persons, however, spent significantly more time with the patient compared with persons who did not request treatment. Maintaining strict isolation precautions when rabies is being considered, educating employees about the risks of transmission in this setting, carefully documenting exposures, and adhering to the guidelines for postexposure prophylaxis may help reduce excessive prophylaxis of health care workers.

Serum levels of ornithine carbamyl transferase activities were determined in the acutely ill and convalescent Reye's syndrome patients and in their parents. Acutely ill Reye's syndrome patients had elevated levels of serum ornithine carbamyl transferase activities as compared to those in controls. The convalescent Reye's syndrome patients and their parents had normal levels of serum ornithine carbamyl transferase activities. These results suggest that an inborn metabolic defect was not responsible for the increase in serum ornithine carbamyl transferase activities in Reye's syndrome.

Based on the aggregate of behavioral risk factor surveys, almost one third of adults were smokers in 1982. Overall, significantly fewer Hispanics smoked compared with whites or blacks. Among young adults, however, the rate of smoking was highest among whites compared with blacks and Hispanics. Compared with nonsmokers, smokers--especially young women--had higher rates of other risk behaviors, including alcohol misuse and lack of seat-belt use. Since 1965, the rate of decline of smoking among women has not been as great as that among men, due in part to the high rate--more than 40%--of smoking among young white women. Despite continued decrease in the overall proportion of smokers, the high rate among young women emphasizes the need for continued efforts toward prevention and cessation, before the well-documented health consequences develop.

Preventing the initiation of cigarette smoking plays a vital role in reducing rates of cigarette smoking. The authors investigated trends in cigarette smoking initiation among Mexican Americans, Cuban Americans, Puerto Rican Americans, compared with whites, by examining the cigarette smoking histories of adults from the 1982-83 Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the 1987 National Health Interview Survey. To evaluate these trends, they calculated the prevalence of cigarette smoking among 20-24-year-olds, an indicator of the rate of smoking initiation, in successive 5-year birth cohorts from 1908-12 to 1958-62 among Hispanics and from 1908-12 to 1963-67 among whites. Recently, rates of smoking initiation among Mexican American and Cuban American men have declined and converged with rates of initiation among white men. However, rates of initiation among Puerto Rican American men appeared to have remained unchanged since the 1950s. During the 1970s rates of smoking initiation among Cuban American and Puerto Rican American women surpassed those of white women. In the early 1980s, however, rates of initiation among these groups of Hispanic women have declined to levels comparable to or perhaps lower than the rates among white women. Although recently the rates among Mexican American women have been the lowest of all groups of women, they have not experienced appreciable declines. In general, rates of smoking initiation either declined or leveled off later for Hispanics than for whites. These results suggest that Hispanics tended to follow the smoking trends observed among whites and that special efforts are needed to prevent cigarette smoking among Hispanics.

Abstract During 1988, more than 40 state health departments conducted telephone surveys to obtain state-specific population estimates of the prevalence of adult health behaviors and health practices. However, the comparability of estimates obtained from these telephone surveys with more expensive in-person surveys has not been assessed in an applied setting. This study compared the prevalence estimates of smoking and binge drinking obtained from a telephone survey (N = 1,492) with an in-person survey (N = 2,802) which were conducted by the state of Michigan during 1982-1983. Although the standard errors for the differences in the estimates for the two surveys were relatively large, the actual differences were consistently small within most age-, sex-, and education-specific groups. Despite certain limitations, telephone surveys provide a reasonable alternative to in-person surveys for estimating the prevalence of health behaviors. The data obtained from these surveys are being used to set state health objectives, to plan state-wide health promotion programs, and to support public health legislation.

The National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute has concluded that reducing sodium intake, controlling weight, and moderating alcohol consumption can help patients with hypertension control their blood pressure. To determine whether such patients have adopted recommended dietary practices, we analyzed data collected in 1986 from telephone surveys of adults in 26 states (no. = 34,395). The self-reported dietary practices that we evaluated were: use of table salt, alcohol consumption, and weight control practices. In comparison with persons who did not have hypertension (no. = 26,848), those with hypertension who were receiving pharmacological therapy ("treated hypertensives," no. = 5,025) were more likely to report limiting their use of table salt (odds ratio [OR] = 2.5) and were less likely to have their weight controlled (OR = 0.4). Although overweight persons with hypertension were more likely than persons with normal blood pressure to attempt to lose weight, most have not included exercise in their weight loss efforts. There was no difference between persons who do not have hypertension and treated patients with hypertension in their use of alcohol. Untreated persons with hypertension (no. = 2,378) were less likely to limit their use of table salt and less likely to moderate their use of alcohol than treated persons with hypertension but otherwise reported similar dietary practices. Dietetic practitioners may need to emphasize moderation of alcohol use and the use of physical activity to lose weight when counseling patients with hypertension.

We predicted the smoking prevalences for 1990 for each state in the US, assuming that the decline in each state from 1985-1990 would be the same as the decline in the US from 1965-1985. In 1985, only three states had smoking prevalences less than 25 percent. Based upon the observed decline in smoking in the US from 1965-1985 of 0.5 percent per year, we predict that only seven states will have smoking prevalences less than 25 percent by 1990. States need to consider current smoking prevalence and achievable rates of decline when setting objectives for 1990 and beyond.

Alcohol abuse in the State of Minnesota has an impact on health, health care resources, and the economy. Alcohol abuse was related to 3.3 per cent (1,150) of deaths in Minnesota in 1983; of these, almost one-third were the result of fatal injuries. Alcohol abuse contributed to 12 per cent (33,909) of all years of potential life lost, two-thirds of which were secondary to injury. The estimated cost of alcohol abuse ranged from $1.4 billion to $2.1 billion, representing from 2.8 per cent to 4.3 per cent of all personal income of Minnesotans, from 32 per cent to 50 per cent of State expenditures, and from 26 to 39 times the alcohol excise tax revenues generated in 1983. Alcohol-related direct medical care costs were estimated to be at least $216 million, 3.8 per cent of Minnesota medical costs for 1983. Costs of reduced on-the-job productivity and short-term absenteeism related to alcohol abuse were estimated to be between $630 million and $1.2 billion. The documentation of the costs of alcohol abuse is an important step in the campaign to reduce alcohol-related deaths, morbidity, and health care costs.

Reye syndrome (RS) is believed to occur infrequently among children receiving long-term aspirin therapy. We reviewed all cases of RS reported to the Michigan Department of Public Health during 1982 and 1983. Three of the 36 patients were receiving aspirin for the treatment of juvenile rheumatoid arthritis. All three patients had clinical courses characteristic of RS and two had supportive histologic findings on liver biopsy. The incidence of RS among children with juvenile rheumatoid arthritis is significantly greater than the incidence of RS among children who do not have juvenile rheumatoid arthritis. These findings support previous studies that showed that the use of aspirin during the antecedent illness may be a risk factor for the development of RS. Physicians should be aware of the potential for the development of RS among children who are receiving long-term aspirin therapy for the treatment of systemic inflammatory illnesses.

Alcohol contributes more than 10 per cent of the total caloric intake of adult drinkers in the United States. However, the effect of alcohol on body weight has not been adequately studied in the general population. The association between weight and frequency of alcohol consumption was examined in two national cross-sectional surveys: the Second National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HANESII; n = 10,929) and the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveys (BRFS; n = 18,388). Linear multiple regression was used to estimate the independent effect of alcohol on weight, adjusting for smoking, age, diet practices, physical activity, race, education, and height. Among men, alcohol had only a slight effect on weight in either survey. However, among women, alcohol was associated with a substantial reduction in weight, which was as large as the effect of smoking. Compared with nondrinkers, women who consumed alcohol 7-13 times per week had the greatest reduction in weight: -3.6 kg (95% confidence limits [CL] = -5.6, -1.5 kg) in HANESII and -3.2 kg (95% CL = -4.9, -1.5 kg) in BRFS. Alcohol confounded the association between smoking and weight, and among women it accounted for nearly 45 per cent of the weight-lowering effect of smoking. Alcohol also diminished the weight-lowering effect of smoking in men, while in women the smoking effect was slightly enhanced. Further studies are needed to understand the causal mechanisms by which alcohol is associated with body weight.

To assess the implementation of hepatitis B virus (HBV) vaccination programs for hospital workers, we mailed questionnaires to all 229 licensed Michigan hospitals. The response rate was 96% (221/229); of these, 68% (150/221) had vaccination programs. Although multiple hospital characteristics were associated with the presence of a vaccination program, characteristics that independently predicted the presence of a program were medical school affiliation, nonpsychiatric specialty, and the existence of a hepatitis B immune globulin protocol. The most common reason given (56%, 40/71) for the absence of a program was insufficient worker risk of hepatitis B infection; this response was frequent in psychiatric (91%, 10/11) and rural hospitals (61%, 11/18). Among high-risk workers, attending physicians were less likely than other high-risk workers to be included in vaccination programs (68% vs. 95%, respectively). Fear of vaccine-associated acquired immunodeficiency syndrome was most frequently cited as the primary reason for vaccine refusal. We conclude that unwarranted fears about the vaccine's safety need to be dispelled, that high-risk physicians should be included in vaccination programs, and that rural and psychiatric hospital policies reflect their perceived risk of occupational HBV infection.

Premarital rubella screening programs are effective in identifying women of childbearing age who are susceptible to rubella. There is concern, however, that once identified, susceptible women may not be subsequently vaccinated. Therefore, a study was conducted to test the effectiveness of a motivational letter mailed at the time of serologic testing. Rubella-susceptible women identified by a premarital screening program were randomly divided into two groups: one group of 134 received a motivational letter and one group of 143 did not. Three months later, 52 percent of the women in the motivational group had been vaccinated, compared with only 24 percent (P less than 0.05) of the women in the control group. In this study, a motivational letter was found to lead to a significant increase in rubella vaccination rates among susceptible women. With the increasing emphasis on rubella vaccination programs for adult women, active approaches are necessary to identify and vaccinate susceptible women.

To investigate trends in the prevalence of cigarette smoking among different age groups of Mexican-Americans, Cuban-Americans, and Puerto Rican-Americans, the smoking histories of 8,286 adults and adolescents from the 1982-83 Hispanic Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (HHANES) were evaluated. Age-specific prevalence rate curves were constructed by using the estimated smoking rates among 8-, 18-, 28-, 38-, 48-, and 58-year-olds from 1923 to 1983. Age-specific rates were higher for men than for women. However, rates declined over time among all age groups of Mexican-American men, and among Cuban-American and Puerto Rican-American men older than 18 years. In contrast, rates for Mexican-American women did not change appreciably over time, but they increased markedly for 28- and 38-year-old Cuban-American women and most age groups of Puerto Rican-American women. These results suggest that rates of cigarette smoking among Hispanic women are beginning to converge with those of Hispanic men, and that rates of smoking initiation among Cuban-American boys and Puerto Rican-American boys and girls have either remained unchanged or increased markedly over time.

We analyzed a statewide telephone survey of Michigan adults to determine patterns of self-reported drinking and driving. The estimated prevalence of drinking and driving was 13.5 percent for men and 2.9 percent for women; the highest prevalence was among 18- to 24-year-old men (32 percent). Based on these estimates, over half a million Michigan adults drank and drove on over one million occasions during the month preceding the survey. Most drinking drivers (93 percent) reported binge drinking, yet 70 percent of them otherwise reported only moderate routine alcohol consumption, that is, they consumed fewer than 14 drinks a week on average. Because we were concerned about the validity of self-reports, we compared the patterns of self-reported alcohol use with the patterns of alcohol-related motor vehicle crashes. The pattern of self-reported drinking and driving (using age-, sex-, and region-specific estimates) was highly correlated with the pattern of injury in alcohol-related crashes (r = .96; p less than .0001). Self-reported patterns of alcohol use may be used to identify persons at highest risk for being injured or dying in a motor vehicle crash.

"Of the ten leading causes of death in the United States, at least seven could be substantially reduced if persons at risk improved just five habits: diet, smoking, lack of exercise, alcohol abuse, and the use of antihypertensive medication."

Although seat belt use could prevent thousands of highway deaths and save billions of dollars annually, most Americans do not routinely buckle up. To understand better this phenomenon and other health-related behaviors, 28 states, the District of Columbia, and the Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, surveyed over 22,000 US adults from 1981 through 1983. Overall, 76% of US adults reported not using seat belts. Blacks, 18- to 24-year-olds, persons with no more than a high school education, and persons with other risk behaviors (especially drunk driving) were least likely to use seat belts. Legislation by the states and education by physicians can increase seat belt use and reduce morbidity and mortality due to motor vehicle collisions.

Since 1981, the Centers for Disease Control has collaborated with State health departments and the District of Columbia to conduct random digit-dialed telephone surveys of adults concerning their health practices and behaviors. This State-based surveillance system, which yields data needed in planning, initiating, and supporting health promotion and disease prevention programs, is described in this paper. Standard methods and questionnaires were used to assess the prevalence of personal health practices and behaviors related to the leading causes of death, including seatbelt use, high blood pressure control, physical activity, weight control, cigarette smoking, alcohol use, drinking and driving, and preventive health practices. Between 1981 and 1983, 29 States (includes the District of Columbia) conducted one-time telephone surveys. Beginning in 1984, most States began collecting data continuously throughout the year, completing approximately 100 interviews per month (range 50-250), with an average of 1,200 completed interviews per year (range 600-3,000). The raw data were weighted to the age, race, and sex distribution for each State from the 1980 census data. This weighting accounts for the underrepresentation of men, whites, and younger persons (18-24 years) in the telephone surveys and, for many health practices, provides prevalence estimates comparable with estimates obtained from household surveys. Nearly all (86 percent) of the States distributed selected survey results to other State agencies, local health departments, voluntary organizations, hospitals, universities, State legislators, and the press. The majority (60 percent) of States used information from the surveys to set State health objectives, prepare State health planning documents, and plan a variety of programs concerning antismoking, the prevention of chronic diseases, and health promotion. Further, nearly two-thirds (65 percent) used results to support legislation, primarily related to the use of tobacco and seatbelts. Most of the States (84 percent) reported that alternative sources for such data (prevalence of behavioral risk factors) were unavailable. Currently in 1988, over 40 State health departments are conducting telephone surveys as part of the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System. This system has proved to be (a) flexible--it provides data on emerging public health problems, such as smokeless tobacco use and AIDS, (b) timely--it provides results within a few months after the data are collected, and (c) affordable--it operates at a fraction of the cost of comparable statewide in-person surveys. The system enables State public health agencies to continue to plan,initiate, and guide statewide health promotion and disease prevention programs and monitor their progress over time.