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Numerical water tracers implemented in a global climate model are used to study how polar hydroclimate responds to CO2-induced warming from a source-receptor perspective. Although remote moisture sources contribute substantially more to polar precipitation year-round in the mean state, an increase in locally sourced moisture is crucial to the winter season polar precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing. In general, the polar hydroclimate response to CO2-induced warming is strongly seasonal: over both the Arctic and Antarctic, locally sourced moisture constitutes a larger fraction of the precipitation in winter, while remote sources become even more dominant in summer. Increased local evaporation in fall and winter is coincident with sea ice retreat, which greatly augments local moisture sources in these seasons. In summer, however, larger contributions from more remote moisture source regions are consistent with an increase in moisture residence times and a longer moisture transport length scale, which produces a robust hydrologic cycle response to CO2-induced warming globally. The critical role of locally sourced moisture in the hydrologic cycle response of both the Arctic and Antarctic is distinct from controlling factors elsewhere on the globe; for this reason, great care should be taken in interpreting polar isotopic proxy records from climate states unlike the present. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The conservation of total water is an important numerical feature for global Earth system models. Even small conservation problems in the water budget can lead to systematic errors in century-long simulations for sea level rise projection. This study quantifies and reduces various sources of water conservation error in the atmosphere component of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model. Several sources of water conservation error have been identified during the development of the version 1 (V1) model. The largest errors result from the numerical coupling between the resolved dynamics and the parameterized sub-grid physics. A hybrid coupling using different methods for fluid dynamics and tracer transport provides a reduction of water conservation error by a factor of 50 at 1° horizontal resolution as well as consistent improvements at other resolutions. The second largest error source is the use of an overly simplified relationship between the surface moisture flux and latent heat flux at the interface between the host model and the turbulence parameterization. This error can be prevented by applying the same (correct) relationship throughout the entire model. Two additional types of conservation error that result from correcting the surface moisture flux and clipping negative water concentrations can be avoided by using mass-conserving fixers. With all four error sources addressed, the water conservation error in the V1 model is negligible and insensitive to the horizontal resolution. The associated changes in the long-term statistics of the main atmospheric features are small. A sensitivity analysis is carried out to show that the magnitudes of the conservation errors decrease strongly with temporal resolution but increase with horizontal resolution. The increased vertical resolution in the new model results in a very thin model layer at the Earth's surface, which amplifies the conservation error associated with the surface moisture flux correction. We note that for some of the identified error sources, the proposed fixers are remedies rather than solutions to the problems at their roots. Future improvements in time integration would be beneficial for this model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global source-receptor relationships of sulfate concentration, direct and indirect radiative forcing (DRF and IRF) from sixteen regions/sectors for years 2010-2014 are examined in this study through utilizing a sulfur source-tagging capability implemented in the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with winds nudged to reanalysis data. Sulfate concentrations are mostly contributed by local emissions in regions with high emissions, while over regions with relatively low SO2 emissions, the near-surface sulfate concentrations are primarily attributed to non-local sources from long-range transport. The export of SO2 and sulfate from Europe contributes 16-20 % of near-surface sulfate concentrations over North Africa, Russia/Belarus/Ukraine (RBU) region and Central Asia. Sources from the Middle East account for 15-24 % of sulfate over North Africa, Southern Africa and Central Asia in winter and autumn, and 19 % over South Asia in spring. Sources in RBU account for 21-42 % of sulfate concentrations over Central Asia. East Asia accounts for about 50 % of sulfate over Southeast Asia in winter and autumn, 15 % over RBU in summer, and 11 % over North America in spring. South Asia contributes to 11-24 % of sulfate over Southeast Asia in winter and spring. Regional source efficiencies of sulfate concentrations are higher over regions with dry atmospheric conditions and less export, suggesting that lifetime of aerosols, together with regional export, is important in determining regional air quality. The simulated global total sulfate DRF is -0.42 W m-2, with 0.31 W m-2 contributed by anthropogenic sulfate and -0.11 W m-2 contributed by natural sulfate, relative to a state with no sulfur emissions. In the Southern Hemisphere tropics, dimethyl sulfide (DMS) contributes 17-84 % to the total DRF. East Asia has the largest contribution of 20-30 % over the Northern Hemisphere mid- and high-latitudes. A 20 % perturbation of sulfate and its precursor emissions gives a sulfate incremental IRF of -0.44 W m-2. DMS has the largest contribution, explaining -0.23 W m-2 of the global sulfate incremental IRF. Incremental IRF over regions in the Southern Hemisphere with low background aerosols is more sensitive to emission perturbation than those over the polluted Northern Hemisphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) have toxic impacts on humans and ecosystems. One of the most carcinogenic PAHs, benzo(a)pyrene (BaP), is efficiently bound to and transported with atmospheric particles. Laboratory measurements show that particle-bound BaP degrades in a few hours by heterogeneous reaction with ozone, yet field observations indicate BaP persists much longer in the atmosphere, and some previous chemical transport modeling studies have ignored heterogeneous oxidation of BaP to bring model predictions into better agreement with field observations. We attribute this unexplained discrepancy to the shielding of BaP from oxidation by coatings of viscous organic aerosol (OA). Accounting for this OA viscosity-dependent shielding, which varies with temperature and humidity, in a global climate/chemistrymodel brings model predictions into much better agreement with BaP measurements, and demonstrates stronger long-range transport, greater deposition fluxes, and substantially elevated lung cancer risk from PAHs. Model results indicate that the OA coating is more effective in shielding BaP in the middle/high latitudes compared with the tropics because of differences in OA properties (semisolid when cool/dry vs. liquid-like when warm/humid). Faster chemical degradation of BaP in the tropics leads to higher concentrations of BaP oxidation products over the tropics compared with higher latitudes. This study has profound implications demonstrating that OA strongly modulates the atmospheric persistence of PAHs and their cancer risks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A test procedure is proposed for identifying numerically significant solution changes in evolution equations used in atmospheric models. The test issues a "fail" signal when any code modifications or computing environment changes lead to solution differences that exceed the known time step sensitivity of the reference model. Initial evidence is provided using the Community Atmosphere Model (CAM) version 5.3 that the proposed procedure can be used to distinguish rounding-level solution changes from impacts of compiler optimization or parameter perturbation, which are known to cause substantial differences in the simulated climate. The test is not exhaustive since it does not detect issues associated with diagnostic calculations that do not feedback to the model state variables. Nevertheless, it provides a practical and objective way to assess the significance of solution changes. The short simulation length implies low computational cost. The independence between ensemble members allows for parallel execution of all simulations, thus facilitating fast turnaround. The new method is simple to implement since it does not require any code modifications. We expect that the same methodology can be used for any geophysical model to which the concept of time step convergence is applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The source attributions for mass concentration, haze formation, transport, and direct radiative forcing of black carbon (BC) in various regions of China are quantified in this study using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) with a source-tagging technique. Anthropogenic emissions are from the Community Emissions Data System that is newly developed for the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). Over North China where the air quality is often poor, about 90 % of near-surface BC concentration is contributed by local emissions. 30 % of BC concentration over South China in winter can be attributed to emissions from North China and 10 % comes from sources outside China in spring. For other regions in China, BC is largely contributed from non-local sources. We further investigated potential factors that contribute to the poor air quality in China. During polluted days, a net inflow of BC transported from non-local source regions associated with anomalous winds plays an important role in increasing local BC concentrations. BC-containing particles emitted from East Asia can also be transported across the Pacific. Our model results show that emissions from inside and outside China are equally important for the BC outflow from East Asia, while emissions from China account for 7 % of BC concentration and 25 % in column burden in western United States in spring. Radiative forcing estimated shows that 66 % of the annual mean BC direct radiative forcing (2.3 W m-2) in China results from local emissions, and the remaining 34 % are contributed by emissions outside of China. Efficiency analysis shows that reduction in BC emissions over eastern China could benefit more on the regional air quality in China, especially in winter haze season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We introduce system identification techniques to climate science wherein multiple dynamic input-output relationships can be simultaneously characterized in a single simulation. This method, involving multiple small perturbations (in space and time) of an input field while monitoring output fields to quantify responses, allows for identification of different timescales of climate response to forcing without substantially pushing the climate far away from a steady state. We use this technique to determine the steady state responses of low cloud fraction and latent heat flux to heating perturbations over 22 regions spanning Earth's oceans. We show that the response characteristics are similar to those of step-change simulations, but in this new method, the responses for 22 regions can be characterized simultaneously. Furthermore, we can estimate the timescale over which the steady state response emerges. The proposed methodology could be useful for a wide variety of purposes in climate science, including characterization of teleconnections and uncertainty quantification to identify the effects of climate model tuning parameters. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The effect of an increase in atmospheric aerosol concentrations on the distribution and radiative properties of Earth's clouds is the most uncertain component of the overall global radiative forcing from preindustrial time. General circulation models (GCMs) are the tool for predicting future climate, but the treatment of aerosols, clouds, and aerosol-cloud radiative effects carries large uncertainties that directly affect GCM predictions, such as climate sensitivity. Predictions are hampered by the large range of scales of interaction between various components that need to be captured. Observation systems (remote sensing, in situ) are increasingly being used to constrain predictions, but significant challenges exist, to some extent because of the large range of scales and the fact that the various measuring systems tend to address different scales. Fine-scale models represent clouds, aerosols, and aerosol-cloud interactions with high fidelity but do not include interactions with the larger scale and are therefore limited from a climatic point of view. We suggest strategies for improving estimates of aerosol-cloud relationships in climate models, for new remote sensing and in situ measurements, and for quantifying and reducing model uncertainty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A test procedure is proposed for identifying numerically significant solution changes in atmospheric models that solve the partial differential equations of fluid dynamics. The test issues a "fail" signal when any code modifications or computing environment changes lead to solution differences that exceed the known time step sensitivity of the reference model. It is demonstrated using the Community Atmosphere Model version 5.3 (CAM5.3) that the proposed procedure can correctly distinguish rounding-level changes in the solutions from impacts of compiler optimization or parameter perturbations that are known to cause non-negligible differences in the simulated climate. The short simulation length implies low computational cost, and makes the test useful for debugging. The independence between ensemble members allows for parallel execution of all simulations thus facilitating fast turnaround. The version 1.0 implementation described in the present paper uses 12-member 5-minute simulations. The computational cost of producing the reference results is close to a 4-month simulation conducted using the default model time step, and the cost of testing a new code or computing environment is close to a 1-month simulation conducted using the default model time step. The new method is simple to implement since it does not require any code modifications. We expect the same methodology can be used for any geophysical model to which the concept of time step convergence is applicable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]