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In recent years, real estate bubbles have been commonplace in housing markets all over the world. That’s why we examine the relation between housing prices during bubbles in 101 cities located in ten different countries, aiming to explain the housing market cycle during a housing bubble, using economic and housing indicators. We obtained data on eight variables used in market cycle analysis which may be able to explain the existence of speculation and the ideal market cycle. The obtained resultsshow that many of economic and housing indicators begin to decrease while housing prices peak. Only the quantity of transactions peaks during the following year. We also observed that a housing bubble can follow three different scenarios, i.e.: the bubble does not burst, or can burst with a slow decline or sudden and rapid collapse. Finally, it is possible to determine that the same variables can provide clear insight into a bubble in the real estate cycle.

This study presents results from continuous measurements of stem CO2 efflux carried out for seven experimental seasons (from May to October) in a young Norway spruce forest. The objectives of the study were to determine variability in the response of stem CO2 efflux to stem temperature over the season and to observe differences in the calculated relationship between stem temperature and CO2 efflux based on full growing season data or on data divided into periods according to stem growth rate. Temperature sensitivity of stem CO2 efflux (Q 10) calculated for the established periods ranged between 1.61 and 3.46 and varied over the season, with the lowest values occurring in July and August. Q 10 calculated using data from the full growing seasons ranged between 2.30 and 2.94 and was often significantly higher than Q 10 calculated for the individual periods. Temperature-normalized stem CO2 efflux (R 10) determined using Q 10 from growing season data was overestimated when the temperature was below 10 °C and underestimated when the temperature was above 10 °C, compared with R 10 calculated using Q 10 established for the individual periods. The differences in daily mean R 10 calculated by these two approaches ranged between −0.9 and 0.2 μmol CO2 m−2 s−1. The results of this study confirm that long periods for determining the temperature dependence of stem CO2 efflux encompass different statuses of the wood (especially in relation to stem growth). This may cause bias in models using this relationship for estimating stem CO2 efflux as a function of temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In countries confronting the issue of low fertility, as Japan is, dual trends showing higher regional population density associated with lower fertility rates are being confirmed. It is therefore an important theme for analysis to deepen discussions related to reducing regional fertility disparities by increasing fertility through the implementation of comprehensive childcare support policies, which might facilitate the striking of a balance between child-rearing and work, even in highly populated regions. As described herein, we constructed a simple theoretical two-region overlapping generations (OLG) with attention explicitly devoted to population density and land price. Using this theoretical setup, we analyzed how the fertility rate is affected by population density and land prices. Our findings are as follows. First, considering congestion costs, the fertility rate is depressed by high population density. However, childcare services might mitigate such effects. Second, enriching regional childcare services raises the relative population density of its region. Third, the optimal regional tax rate to finance childcare services is independent of other regions’ regional tax rates and childcare services. Therefore, adopting an optimal regional tax rate is a dominant strategy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the ripple effect in four regional housing markets in the USA (Northeast, Midwest, South, and West) was examined by analyzing housing prices, which is a method that has been primarily used in other studies, and the transfer of information in the transaction volume data of regional markets. First, the ripple index between regional housing markets was estimated using housing price and transaction volume. Findings revealed that the ripple effect in the transaction volume of regional housing markets was far more evident than that in housing prices and that the two types of ripple effect are negatively correlated. In other words, information between regional housing markets is either transferred through price or volume. In this study, monetary policy, overall economic performance, and new housing market were adopted as variables to analyze the cause and outcomes of the ripple effect. The results show that inflation stemming from an excess supply of money causes a ripple effect of rising regional housing prices. This money illusion leads contractors to believe that the housing market has increasing demand, motivating them to enter into new projects. Once these projects are completed, the increase in supply (new homes for sale) is reflected in the transaction volume of the regional housing market. In this instance, a stagnation in housing prices signifies that information is only transferred in the transaction volume. In short, the rise (housing boom) and fall (housing depression) of transaction volume affect interest rates in the mortgage market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the age-dependent reliance on agglomeration externalities from a dynamic perspective by investigating the determinants of manufacturing establishments’ relocation decisions at the stages of the initial and the post-initial relocations. The relocation decisions are conceptually split into those on whether to relocate and where to relocate, specified by a nested-logistic model structure. The results indicate that manufacturing establishments’ preference to intra-industry agglomeration changes non-monotonically during their lifetime. While they prefer to stay in or move into municipalities characterized by the own-industry agglomeration in their initial relocation decision, they shun the intra-industry agglomeration in the stages of post-initial relocation. These findings suggest that to achieve the goal of industrial decentralization, policies to induce incumbent firms to relocate into rural areas could be more effective than those to attract start-up firms in peripheral area because they have lower dependence on agglomeration externalities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper serves as an orientation towards the understanding of some of the contributions and theoretical limitations in New Economic Geography and seeks to provide a prospective assessment of new avenues of research along which the field could improve and develop. We identify many of the persistent features and assumptions which have thwarted the evolution of New Economic Geography and led to a sprawl of criticism within the field. This criticism has opened a discussion towards the identification of new possible directions, some of which are being progressively undertaken, while others raise issues that are difficult to overcome both analytically and empirically. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the causal relationship of supply of art on domestic tourist flows. To this aim, we use aggregate bilateral data on tourist flows and various data on museums in the twenty Italian regions. To solve the potential endogeneity of the supply of museums, we use three different empirical strategies: we use a fixed effects model controlling for bilateral macro-area dummies, we compute the degree of selection on unobservables relative to observables which would be necessary to drive the result to zero and, finally, we adopt a two-stage least squares approach that uses a measure of historical patronage, the number of noble families, as an instrument for the number of museums. For each empirical strategy, there is strong evidence of a positive effect of the number of 'net-museums' on bilateral tourist flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper extending the size-productivity framework we examine the nature of relationship between city size and the deprivation index developed at a highly disaggregate level of urban centres (city/town) on the basis of dwelling conditions, basic amenities and assets in possession. Further, the demographic and economic characteristics in relation to the deprivation index and city size are analysed in detail. Very large cities are endowed with better living conditions and infrastructural facilities, displaying lower magnitude of the index though this relationship is not very strong, suggesting the importance of other variables such as income, location and the overall level of urbanisation, impacting on the index value. Large cities experience agglomeration economies but they do not benefit all sections of the population equally, which in turn does not necessarily bring in proportionate decline in the deprivation index with a rise in city size. Further, other demographic and economic variables are examined in relation to the deprivation index and city size. Findings show Further, there is no marked improvement in these other indicators of development with increase in as city size increases. Greater intervention is called for to provide support in terms of housing, sanitation and water, and for other indicators of development to improve. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper looks at the relationship between remittances and higher education in Moldovan regions. The objective is to test whether remittances are associated with an increase in the likelihood of attending higher education institutions by taking into account a possible disruptive effect of migration and looking for regional differences in this relationship. Findings show that, on average, remittances are associated with a 5.4 percentage point increase in the likelihood that young individuals will pursue higher education. Nonetheless, this result is widely heterogeneous across regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines how Russian manufacturing firms pursue technology innovation in response to imports. The research is based on the data from two surveys of manufacturing companies performed in 2005 and 2009. The findings show beneficial effects of importing on innovation. Previous involvement in the importation of equipment and intermediates leads to future innovation, and there is evidence of simultaneous choice in favour of imports and innovation in case of manufacturing equipment. The learning effects from importing seem to be higher for product than for process innovation. The decisions of firms to invest in innovation and to import are sensitive to their location, technology position, pressure from import competition, and their efforts to conduct R&D in addition to importing embodied knowledge. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the specialisation of European Union (EU) regions in key enabling technologies (KETs) and assesses whether or not being specialised in these technological areas has an effect on regional growth. The evidence presented shows that regions specialised in KETs are concentrated in central Europe; however, over the period taken into account (1996–2011), less innovative and peripheral EU regions have been increasing their specialisation in these technological areas at the expense of the most advanced regions. There is also evidence that (spatial) diffusion of KETs often occurs across regions contiguous to each other. The results of the econometric estimations show that being specialised in KETs affects regional economic growth (per capita gross domestic product) and that this effect is stronger in the case of less innovative EU regions. Overall, these results hint at the pervasive nature and enabling role of KETs and demonstrate the importance for EU regions to target these technologies as part of their smart specialisation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The concept of resilience has recently been investigated from the perspective of several disciplines. This extensive research has produced many approaches to determine the key definitions, linked to both the notion of stability in dynamics (return to the previous equilibrium after a shock) and the idea of adaptivity (absorption of the shock leading to new equilibria). Among the various definitions and measurements which can be found in the literature, the Resilience Capacity Index (RCI) defines a kind of ‘potential resilience’, i.e. the potential ability of a region to recover, or bounce back in the presence of external shocks. However, the RCI should also be tested empirically versus other resilience/vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability denotes a different view on the state of the system in the presence of shocks, i.e. the degree to which a system is susceptible to harm. In the present paper, this concept will be adopted by analysing the dynamics of the unemployment growth rate, and then comparing it to the RCI. The country of interest in this paper is Slovakia. Slovakia is a small country in Central-Eastern Europe and can serve as a good example of an open and export-based economy, subjected to the global crisis. Thus, in the context of the 2007–2008 economic crisis, the RCI in the 79 Slovak districts is examined with respect to their vulnerability in the first period of rising unemployment (2008–2012), as well as in the second period following vulnerability to the economic shock (2012–2014). A clear West-East divide in the resilience capacity can be seen. The more urban and export-oriented districts with high RCI values are shown to be exposed to high vulnerability compared with the rural districts. On the other hand, the small, peripheral districts respond to a lesser extent, or with a delay, to the shock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Consumer discontent suggests the lack of competition and the absence of independent retailers in Australian regional centres maintains upward pressure on petrol prices. These claims are examined by estimating a reduced form price model to assess the impact that major retailer market concentration, station density, brand effects and other variables may have on prices. Employing data from the New South Wales government’s mandatory FuelCheck reporting system, higher degrees of market concentration and lower station density in regional centres are found to impact prices positively. These findings are robust across data types including: individual station level retail prices, regional averages, retailer margins and alternative Australian Competition and Consumer Commission data. The negative price impacts of introducing an additional non-major retailer are estimated for individual regional centres and on average range from one half to one and half cents per litre depending on fuel type. These estimates appear to be small which, in part, may be the consequence of the sample focus on regional centres only and the introduction of FuelCheck and its objective to improve price transparency in the market. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The consequences of the crisis have been mainly analyzed at national/international levels, neglecting its differential effects on local areas. Notwithstanding the international character of the Great Recession, the different local structural features might have influenced the economic and social impact of the crisis, determining effects on the resilience and recovery chance. In this paper, we focus on the role of different territorial indicators by looking at how their relevance has changed during the recent crisis at provincial level. Our aim is threefold. First, we identify the strategic territorial elements which might be particularly relevant in ensuring a greater local absorption capacity. Second, we test whether the crisis has increased the role of specific local factors. In doing that, we use different measures of performance (GDP, exports and employment). Third, we control for macro-regional characteristics (i.e., North versus South) and local specific effects through a panel analysis of the dynamics of the performance variables in three sub-periods over the years 2000–2014. For that purpose, we use a multidimensional dataset for Italian provinces aiming at estimating the empirical relations between the set of territorial elements (i.e., the components of the so-called territorial capital) and the change in local performance. The results stress the role of some localized variables (i.e., human and cultural/natural/capital, agglomeration economies) over the whole period and the changing role of other territorial dimensions (material and non-material) according to the performance variable considered and during the crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent methodological developments provide a way to incorporate the temporal dimension when accounting for spatial effects in hedonic pricing. Weight matrices should decompose the spatial effects into two distinct components: bidirectional contemporaneous spatial connections; and unidirectional spatio-temporal effects from past transactions. Our iterative estimation approach explicitly analyses the role of time in price determination. The results show that both spatio-temporal components should be included in model specification; past transaction information stops contributing to price determination after eight months; and limited temporal friction is exhibited within this period. These findings highlight the decidedly non-linear temporal patterns of such information effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Measuring regional inequality: to weight or not to weight?Spatial Economic Analysis. When estimating regional inequality, many economists use inequality indices weighted by regions’ proportion of the national population. Although this approach is widespread, its adequacy has not received attention in the regional science literature. This paper proves that such an approach is conceptually inconsistent, yielding an estimate of interpersonal inequality among the whole population of the country rather than an estimate of regional inequality. Nevertheless, as a measure of interpersonal inequality, such an estimate is very rough (even misleading) and does not always have an intuitive interpretation. Moreover, population-weighted inequality indices do not meet the requirements for an adequate measure of inequality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We measure the regional impact of the European Capital of Culture programme using a difference-in-differences approach. We compare the regions of cities that hosted the event with the regions of cities that tried to host it but did not succeed. GDP per capita in hosting regions is 4.5 % higher compared to non-hosting regions during the event, and the effect persists more than 5 years after it. This result suggests that the economic dimension of the event is important and supports claims that the event serves as catalyst for urban regeneration and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

House price prediction is a hot topic in the economic literature. House price prediction has traditionally been approached using a-spatial linear (or intrinsically linear) hedonic models. It has been shown, however, that spatial effects are inherent in house pricing. This article considers parametric and semi-parametric spatial hedonic model variants that account for spatial autocorrelation, spatial heterogeneity and (smooth and nonparametrically specified) nonlinearities using penalized splines methodology. The models are represented as a mixed model that allow for the estimation of the smoothing parameters along with the other parameters of the model. To assess the out-of-sample performance of the models, the paper uses a database containing the price and characteristics of 10,512 homes in Madrid, Spain (Q1 2010). The results obtained suggest that the nonlinear models accounting for spatial heterogeneity and flexible nonlinear relationships between some of the individual or areal characteristics of the houses and their prices are the best strategies for house price prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is a tendency to think in primarily economic terms (e.g., economic and financial opportunities) when considering how major science, technology and business spaces, also known as science parks (e.g., Silicon Valley, USA; Science Vale, UK), attract international knowledge migrants (IKMs) from the global knowledge economy. However, other elements that make places attractive for IKMs to achieve desirable standards of living are often not sufficiently addressed in the recent literature. Using a single case study of the Dutch science park Novel-T, this paper investigates how science parks can deliberately be created to attract and retain IKMs using a new multidimensional model for understanding the attractive effects of science parks on human capital. The fieldwork element involved 20 semi-structured face-to-face interviews, which were analyzed using a narrative analysis technique. The results of the case study show that science parks should be understood as multidimensional networks that trigger both a social attraction effect for IKMs as well as regional economic development and growth. The importance of the spatial design of science parks as well as the creation of a highly international atmosphere were found to be two influential factors in attracting IKMs to a particular science park in a peripheral region. Moreover, the results show that the deliberate construction of a science park with four intended operational effects is not a simple and controllable process, since some operational effects (e.g., external recognition) appear to be more controllable than others (e.g., internal social dynamics). [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

This paper charts the evolution, over three decades, of a group of community-based organizations in the Manor area of Sheffield, UK, which have sought to establish the basis for its economic and social regeneration. It identifies various factors as important in underpinning the organizations’ collective contribution, but observes that this contribution is largely limited to the rebuilding of community capital, esteem and environment. Material and measurable improvements in social and economic indicators require, in addition, a stronger appreciation of the value of organizational knowledge and learning, and more purposeful network development. The increased role for community-based organizations in addressing the challenges of sustained economic austerity is noted. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]