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This article investigates the impact that arms races have on the probability of major power rivals going to war. Twenty-two enduring rivalries in the years 1816-1980 are the focus of investigation. Military buildups were found to exercise little direct impact on the escalation of militarized disputes to war. They were critical, however, in affecting the relative capabilities of the contending nations. Parity was the escalatory condition for rivalries in the nineteenth century, while preponderance precipitated war in the twentieth century. Arms races and unilateral buildups were dangerous when they caused a shift to each century's escalatory distribution of capabilities or inhibited a shift away from that distribution. The escalatory capability distributions were virtual necessary, but not sufficient, conditions for war. Rivalries experienced war under these conditions only after a series of militarized disputes had occurred between the contending nations, the site of contention was contiguous to one of the rivals, and the defense burden of the target nation of the dispute was high. Implications for the current U.S.U.S.S.R. rivalry are discussed.

This essay extends John Kingdon's work on predecision policy processes in US domestic policy to the foreign policy domain. While Kingdon's insights have significantly improved our understanding of predecision processes, further development is necessary for extension across both domestic and foreign policy domains. Kingdon's incremental evolutionary metaphor for alternative specification has to be revamped to include both gradualist and nonincremental policy types. Scholars must also make more explicit, elaborate, and thorough use of Cohen, March and Olsen's ‘garbage can’ model of decision making. To these ends, we offer a typology of policy alternatives that incorporates alternative metaphors premised on recent developments in evolutionary theory. The essay concludes by suggesting a research agenda amenable to pursuit in both national and cross-national contexts.

Simulation is an increasingly popular pedagogical device; much of the recent literature on the theory and practice of political science instruction attests to this. Probably the most popular simulation device is called model United Nations. In recent articles in Teaching Political Science and NEWS for Teachers of Political Science, William Hazelton and James Jacob have described Model United Nations in glowing terms, focusing on one particular conference and completely ignoring the rest of the 200 or more conferences held annually across the United States.Like Jacob and Hazelton, we recognize the great potential value of United Nations simulations in trying to illuminate the often confusing politics of international organizations. As former participants and directors of these programs, however, we are keenly aware of the shortcomings and difficulties associated with the existing structure of model U.N. programs.

Stromatolitic domes having apparent growth reliefs up to 100 m or more characterize the lower member of the Noonday Dolomite, late Proterozoic, Death Valley region, eastern California. Long to short, subparallel, initially subvertical tubes penetrate the bedding of these structures at angles that range from 90° where stratification was initially horizontal to downslope angles up to 110° (and acute upslope angles) as initial dips increase. Tubes generally are missing where initial dips exceed 20°. They are common in the larger buildups and most abundant in the upper and central parts of these. They may be open or filled with coarsely sparry secondary dolomite, medium-gray ultra microgranular dolomite, silty brown dolomite, or drusy quartz. They pinch and swell irregularly along their length from a mean diameter of 1.5 cm and are subcircular to irregular in horizontal cross section. Secondary crystalline growths similar to those in many tubes are common along lamination surfaces and as irregular vug fillings. Weathering along intersecting fracture sets locally produces a subvertical lineation in the same orientation as associated tubes. Possible origins considered for the tubes and found improbable are: (1) metazoan burrows, (2) interspaces of columnar stromatolites, (3) columnar stromatolites, (4) solution pipes, and (5) root casts. Instead the spaces now represented by filled vugs, sparry lamination surfaces, and tubes are interpreted as having, in general, a common origin caused by the upward movement of fluids through the stromatolite mounds.