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Synthetic medical data which preserves privacy while maintaining utility can be used as an alternative to real medical data, which has privacy costs and resource constraints associated with it. At present, most models focus on generating cross-sectional health data which is not necessarily representative of real data. In reality, medical data is longitudinal in nature, with a single patient having multiple health events, non-uniformly distributed throughout their lifetime. These events are influenced by patient covariates such as comorbidities, age group, gender etc. as well as external temporal effects (e.g. flu season). While there exist seminal methods to model time series data, it becomes increasingly challenging to extend these methods to medical event time series data. Due to the complexity of the real data, in which each patient visit is an event, we transform the data by using summary statistics to characterize the events for a fixed set of time intervals, to facilitate analysis and interpretability. We then train a generative adversarial network to generate synthetic data. We demonstrate this approach by generating human sleep patterns, from a publicly available dataset. We empirically evaluate the generated data and show close univariate resemblance between synthetic and real data. However, we also demonstrate how stratification by covariates is required to gain a deeper understanding of synthetic data quality., Comment: Machine Learning for Health (ML4H) at NeurIPS 2019 - Extended Abstract

It has often been stated that, within the class of continuous stochastic volatility models calibrated to vanillas, the price of a VIX future is maximized by the Dupire local volatility model. In this article we prove that this statement is incorrect: we build a continuous stochastic volatility model in which a VIX future is strictly more expensive than in its associated local volatility model. More generally, in this model, strictly convex payoffs on a squared VIX are strictly cheaper than in the associated local volatility model. This corresponds to an inversion of convex ordering between local and stochastic variances, when moving from instantaneous variances to squared VIX, as convex payoffs on instantaneous variances are always cheaper in the local volatility model. We thus prove that this inversion of convex ordering, which is observed in the SPX market for short VIX maturities, can be produced by a continuous stochastic volatility model. We also prove that the model can be extended so that, as suggested by market data, the convex ordering is preserved for long maturities.

Imaging rocky planets in reflected light, a key focus of future NASA missions and ELTs, requires advanced wavefront control to maintain a deep, temporally correlated null of stellar halo at just several diffraction beam widths. We discuss development of Linear Dark Field Control (LDFC) to achieve this aim. We describe efforts to test spatial LDFC in a laboratory setting for the first time, using the Ames Coronagraph Experiment (ACE) testbed. Our preliminary results indicate that spatial LDFC is a promising method focal-plane wavefront control method capable of maintaining a static dark hole, at least at contrasts relevant for imaging mature planets with 30m-class telescopes., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, Proceedings of SPIE Optics+Photonics 2019

We describe the current performance of the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) instrument on the Subaru telescope on Maunakea, Hawaii and present early science results for SCExAO coupled with the CHARIS integral field spectrograph. SCExAO now delivers H band Strehl ratios up to $\sim$ 0.9 or better, extreme AO corrections for optically faint stars, and planet-to-star contrasts rivaling that of GPI and SPHERE. CHARIS yield high signal-to-noise detections and 1.1--2.4 $\mu m$ spectra of benchmark directly-imaged companions like HR 8799 cde and kappa And b that clarify their atmospheric properties. We also show how recently published as well as unpublished observations of LkCa 15 lead to a re-evaluation of its claimed protoplanets. Finally, we briefly describe plans for a SCExAO-focused direct imaging campaign to directly image and characterize young exoplanets, planet-forming disks, and (later) mature planets in reflected light., Comment: 16 pages, 10 figures, Proc of SPIE Optics+Photonics 2019

In this article we show that the vector-Apodizing Phase Plate (vAPP) coronagraph can be designed such that the coronagraphic point spread functions (PSFs) can act as a wavefront sensor to measure and correct the (quasi-)static aberrations, without dedicated wavefront sensing holograms nor modulation by the deformable mirror. The absolute wavefront retrieval is performed with a non-linear algorithm. The focal-plane wavefront sensing (FPWFS) performance of the vAPP and the algorithm are evaluated with numerical simulations, to test various photon and read noise levels, the sensitivity to the 100 lowest Zernike modes and the maximum wavefront error (WFE) that can be accurately estimated in one iteration. We apply these methods to the vAPP within SCExAO, first with the internal source and subsequently on-sky. In idealised simulations we show that for $10^7$ photons the root-mean-square (RMS) WFE can be reduced to $\sim\lambda/1000$, which is 1 nm RMS in the context of the SCExAO system. We find that the maximum WFE that can be corrected in one iteration is $\sim\lambda/8$ RMS or $\sim$200 nm RMS (SCExAO). Furthermore, we demonstrate the SCExAO vAPP capabilities by measuring and controlling the lowest 30 Zernike modes with the internal source and on-sky. On-sky, we report a raw contrast improvement of a factor $\sim$2 between 2 and 4 $\lambda/D$ after 5 iterations of closed-loop correction. When artificially introducing 150 nm RMS WFE, the algorithm corrects it within 5 iterations of closed-loop operation. FPWFS with the vAPP's coronagraphic PSFs is a powerful technique since it integrates coronagraphy and wavefront sensing, eliminating the need for additional probes and thus resulting in a $100\%$ science duty cycle and maximum throughput for the target., Comment: Accepted for publication in Astronomy&Astrophysics. 19 pages, 15 figures

We propose a novel neural network embedding approach to model power transmission grids, in which high voltage lines are disconnected and reconnected with one-another from time to time, either accidentally or willfully. We call our architeture LEAP net, for Latent Encoding of Atypical Perturbation. Our method implements a form of transfer learning, permitting to train on a few source domains, then generalize to new target domains, without learning on any example of that domain. We evaluate the viability of this technique to rapidly assess cu-rative actions that human operators take in emergency situations, using real historical data, from the French high voltage power grid.

In this white paper, we recommend the European Space Agency plays a proactive role in developing a global collaborative effort to construct a large high-contrast imaging space telescope, e.g. as currently under study by NASA. Such a mission will be needed to characterize a sizable sample of temperate Earth-like planets in the habitable zones of nearby Sun-like stars and to search for extraterrestrial biological activity. We provide an overview of relevant European expertise, and advocate ESA to start a technology development program towards detecting life outside the Solar system., Comment: White paper for ESA Voyage 2050; 24 pages

The ChaLearn large-scale gesture recognition challenge has been run twice in two workshops in conjunction with the International Conference on Pattern Recognition (ICPR) 2016 and International Conference on Computer Vision (ICCV) 2017, attracting more than $200$ teams round the world. This challenge has two tracks, focusing on isolated and continuous gesture recognition, respectively. This paper describes the creation of both benchmark datasets and analyzes the advances in large-scale gesture recognition based on these two datasets. We discuss the challenges of collecting large-scale ground-truth annotations of gesture recognition, and provide a detailed analysis of the current state-of-the-art methods for large-scale isolated and continuous gesture recognition based on RGB-D video sequences. In addition to recognition rate and mean jaccard index (MJI) as evaluation metrics used in our previous challenges, we also introduce the corrected segmentation rate (CSR) metric to evaluate the performance of temporal segmentation for continuous gesture recognition. Furthermore, we propose a bidirectional long short-term memory (Bi-LSTM) baseline method, determining the video division points based on the skeleton points extracted by convolutional pose machine (CPM). Experiments demonstrate that the proposed Bi-LSTM outperforms the state-of-the-art methods with an absolute improvement of $8.1\%$ (from $0.8917$ to $0.9639$) of CSR., Comment: 14 pages, 8 figures, 6 tables

Research progress in AutoML has lead to state of the art solutions that can cope quite wellwith supervised learning task, e.g., classification with AutoSklearn. However, so far thesesystems do not take into account the changing nature of evolving data over time (i.e., theystill assume i.i.d. data); even when this sort of domains are increasingly available in realapplications (e.g., spam filtering, user preferences, etc.). We describe a first attempt to de-velop an AutoML solution for scenarios in which data distribution changes relatively slowlyover time and in which the problem is approached in a lifelong learning setting. We extendAuto-Sklearn with sound and intuitive mechanisms that allow it to cope with this sort ofproblems. The extended Auto-Sklearn is combined with concept drift detection techniquesthat allow it to automatically determine when the initial models have to be adapted. Wereport experimental results in benchmark data from AutoML competitions that adhere tothis scenario. Results demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed methodology., Comment: AutoML 2018 @ ICML/IJCAI-ECAI

Instrumentation techniques in the field of direct imaging of exoplanets have greatly advanced over the last two decades. Two of the four NASA-commissioned large concept studies involve a high-contrast instrument for the imaging and spectral characterization of exo-Earths from space: LUVOIR and HabEx. This whitepaper describes the status of 8 optical testbeds in the US and France currently in operation to experimentally validate the necessary technologies to image exo-Earths from space. They explore two complementary axes of research: (i) coronagraph designs and manufacturing and (ii) active wavefront correction methods and technologies. Several instrument architectures are currently being analyzed in parallel to provide more degrees of freedom for designing the future coronagraphic instruments. The necessary level of performance has already been demonstrated in-laboratory for clear off-axis telescopes (HabEx-like) and important efforts are currently in development to reproduce this accomplishment on segmented and/or on-axis telescopes (LUVOIR-like) over the next two years., Comment: Astro2020 Decadal Survey call for Activities, Projects, or State of the Profession Consideration - APC White Paper. To be published in the Bulletin of the American Astronomical Society (BAAS). 16 pages, 5 figures

The fields of Astronomy and Astrophysics are technology limited, where the advent and application of new technologies to astronomy usher in a flood of discoveries altering our understanding of the Universe (e.g., recent cases include LIGO and the GRAVITY instrument at the VLTI). Currently, the field of astronomical spectroscopy is rapidly approaching an impasse: the size and cost of instruments, especially multi-object and integral field spectrographs for extremely large telescopes (ELTs), are pushing the limits of what is feasible, requiring optical components at the very edge of achievable size and performance. For these reasons, astronomers are increasingly looking for innovative solutions like photonic technologies that promote instrument miniaturization and simplification, while providing superior performance. Astronomers have long been aware of the potential of photonic technologies. The goal of this white paper is to draw attention to key photonic technologies and developments over the past two decades and demonstrate there is new momentum in this arena. We outline where the most critical efforts should be focused over the coming decade in order to move towards realizing a fully photonic instrument. A relatively small investment in this technology will advance astronomical photonics to a level where it can reliably be used to solve challenging instrument design limitations. For the benefit of both ground and space borne instruments alike, an endorsement from the National Academy of Sciences decadal survey will ensure that such solutions are set on a path to their full scientific exploitation, which may one day address a broad range of science cases outlined in the KSPs., Comment: 11 pages, 3 figures, NAS astro2020 whitepaper

We present an analysis of instrument performance using new observations taken with the Coronagraphic High Angular Resolution Imaging Spectrograph (CHARIS) instrument and the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) system. In a correlation analysis of our datasets (which use the broadband mode covering J through K band in a single spectrum), we find that chromaticity in the SCExAO/CHARIS system is generally worse than temporal stability. We also develop a point spread function (PSF) subtraction pipeline optimized for the CHARIS broadband mode, including a forward modelling-based exoplanet algorithmic throughput correction scheme. We then present contrast curves using this newly developed pipeline. An analogous subtraction of the same datasets using only the H band slices yields the same final contrasts as the full JHK sequences; this result is consistent with our chromaticity analysis, illustrating that PSF subtraction using spectral differential imaging (SDI) in this broadband mode is generally not more effective than SDI in the individual J, H, or K bands. In the future, the data processing framework and analysis developed in this paper will be important to consider for additional SCExAO/CHARIS broadband observations and other ExAO instruments which plan to implement a similar integral field spectrograph broadband mode.

Two studies utilizing sparse aperture masking (SAM) interferometry and $H_{\rm \alpha}$ differential imaging have reported multiple jovian companions around the young solar-mass star, LkCa 15 (LkCa 15 bcd): the first claimed direct detection of infant, newly-formed planets ("protoplanets"). We present new near-infrared direct imaging/spectroscopy from the SCExAO system coupled with the CHARIS integral field spectrograph and multi-epoch thermal infrared imaging from Keck/NIRC2 of LkCa 15 at high Strehl ratios. These data provide the first direct imaging look at the same wavelengths and in the same locations where previous studies identified the LkCa 15 protoplanets and thus offer the first decisive test of their existence. The data do not reveal these planets. Instead, we resolve extended emission tracing a dust disk with a brightness and location comparable to that claimed for LkCa 15 bcd. Forward-models attributing this signal to orbiting planets are inconsistent with the combined SCExAO/CHARIS and Keck/NIRC2 data. An inner disk provides a more compelling explanation for the SAM detections and perhaps also the claimed $H_{\alpha}$ detection of LkCa 15 b. We conclude that there is currently no clear, direct evidence for multiple protoplanets orbiting LkCa 15, although the system likely contains at least one unseen jovian companion. To identify jovian companions around LkCa 15 from future observations, the inner disk should be detected and its effect modeled, removed, and shown to be distinguishable from planets. Protoplanet candidates identified from similar systems should likewise be clearly distinguished from disk emission through modeling., Comment: 12 pages, 4 figures, 1 table; Astrophysical Journal Letters in press

Over the past three decades instruments on the ground and in space have discovered thousands of planets outside the solar system. These observations have given rise to an astonishingly detailed picture of the demographics of short-period planets, but are incomplete at longer periods where both the sensitivity of transit surveys and radial velocity signals plummet. Even more glaring is that the spectra of planets discovered with these indirect methods are either inaccessible (radial velocity detections) or only available for a small subclass of transiting planets with thick, clear atmospheres. Direct detection can be used to discover and characterize the atmospheres of planets at intermediate and wide separations, including non-transiting exoplanets. Today, a small number of exoplanets have been directly imaged, but they represent only a rare class of young, self-luminous super-Jovian-mass objects orbiting tens to hundreds of AU from their host stars. Atmospheric characterization of planets in the <5 AU regime, where radial velocity (RV) surveys have revealed an abundance of other worlds, is technically feasible with 30-m class apertures in combination with an advanced AO system, coronagraph, and suite of spectrometers and imagers. There is a vast range of unexplored science accessible through astrometry, photometry, and spectroscopy of rocky planets, ice giants, and gas giants. In this whitepaper we will focus on one of the most ambitious science goals --- detecting for the first time habitable-zone rocky (<1.6 R_Earth) exoplanets in reflected light around nearby M-dwarfs, Comment: 8 pages, 1 figure, Astro2020 Science White Paper

This paper reports the results of an experiment in high energy physics: using the power of the "crowd" to solve difficult experimental problems linked to tracking accurately the trajectory of particles in the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). This experiment took the form of a machine learning challenge organized in 2018: the Tracking Machine Learning Challenge (TrackML). Its results were discussed at the competition session at the Neural Information Processing Systems conference (NeurIPS 2018). Given 100.000 points, the participants had to connect them into about 10.000 arcs of circles, following the trajectory of particles issued from very high energy proton collisions. The competition was difficult with a dozen front-runners well ahead of a pack. The single competition score is shown to be accurate and effective in selecting the best algorithms from the domain point of view. The competition has exposed a diversity of approaches, with various roles for Machine Learning, a number of which are discussed in the document, Comment: 36 pages, 22 figures

Planned astronomical observatories of the 2020s will be capable of obtaining reflected light photometry and spectroscopy of cool extrasolar giant planets. Here we explain that such data are valuable both for understanding the origin and evolution of giant planets as a whole and for preparing for the interpretation of similar datasets from potentially habitable extrasolar terrestrial planets in the decades to follow., Comment: Science white paper submitted to the Astro 2020 Decadal Survey on Astronomy and Astrophysics. Replace version to fix typo in co-signer name and add figure credits

We organized a competition on Autonomous Lifelong Machine Learning with Drift that was part of the competition program of NeurIPS 2018. This data driven competition asked participants to develop computer programs capable of solving supervised learning problems where the i.i.d. assumption did not hold. Large data sets were arranged in a lifelong learning and evaluation scenario and CodaLab was used as the challenge platform. The challenge attracted more than 300 participants in its two month duration. This chapter describes the design of the challenge and summarizes its main results., Comment: Preprint submitted to NeurIPS2018 Volume of Springer Series on Challenges in Machine Learning

Ground-based telescopes coupled with adaptive optics (AO) have been playing a leading role in exoplanet direct imaging science and technological development for the past two decades and will continue to have an indispensable role for the next decade and beyond. Over the next decade, extreme AO systems on 8-10m telescopes will 1) mitigate risk for WFIRST-CGI by identifying numerous planets the mission can spectrally characterize, 2) validate performance requirements and motivate improvements to atmosphere models needed to unambiguously characterize solar system-analogues from space, and 3) mature novel technological innovations useful for space. Extremely Large Telescopes can deliver the first thermal infrared (10 $\mu m$) images of rocky planets around Sun-like stars and identify biomarkers. These data provide a future NASA direct imaging flagship mission (i.e. HabEx, LUVOIR) with numerous exo-Earth candidates and critical ancillary information to help clarify whether these planets are habitable., Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures; Astro2020 Decadal Survey submission; argues for strategic NASA support of ground-based exoplanet direct imaging science programs and tech development. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1803.05453

Wavefront sensing and control are important for enabling one of the key advantages of using large apertures, namely higher angular resolutions. Pyramid wavefront sensors are becoming commonplace in new instrument designs owing to their superior sensitivity. However, one remaining roadblock to their widespread use is the fabrication of the pyramidal optic. This complex optic is challenging to fabricate due to the pyramid tip, where four planes need to intersect in a single point. Thus far, only a handful of these have been produced due to the low yields and long lead times. To address this, we present an alternative implementation of the pyramid wavefront sensor that relies on two roof prisms instead. Such prisms are easy and inexpensive to source. We demonstrate the successful operation of the roof prism pyramid wavefront sensor on a 8-m class telescope, at visible and near infrared wavelengths ---for the first time using a SAPHIRA HgCdTe detector without modulation for a laboratory demonstration---, and elucidate how this sensor can be used more widely on wavefront control test benches and instruments., Comment: Accepted for publication in PASP, 7 pages, 9 figures, 1 table

The Coronagraph Instrument (CGI) for NASA's Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) will constitute a dramatic step forward for high-contrast imaging, integral field spectroscopy, and polarimetry of exoplanets and circumstellar disks, aiming to improve upon the sensitivity of current ground-based direct imaging facilities by 2-3 orders of magnitude. Furthermore, CGI will serve as a pathfinder for future exo-Earth imaging and characterization missions by demonstrating wavefront control, coronagraphy, and spectral retrieval in a new contrast regime, and by validating instrument and telescope models at unprecedented levels of precision. To achieve this jump in performance, it is critical to draw on the experience of ground-based high-contrast facilities. We discuss several areas of relevant commonalities, including: wavefront control, post-processing of integral field unit data, and calibration and observing strategies., Comment: Published in Proceedings of the SPIE; Space Telescopes and Instrumentation 2018: Optical, Infrared, and Millimeter Wave. 13 pages, 6 figures

We present SCExAO/CHARIS 1.1--2.4 micron integral field direct spectroscopy of the young HIP 79124 triple system. HIP 79124 is a member of the Scorpius-Centaurus association, consisting of an A0V primary with two low-mass companions at a projected separation of <1 arcsecond. Thanks to the high quality wavefront corrections provided by SCExAO, both companions are decisively detected without the employment of any PSF-subtraction algorithm to eliminate quasi-static noise. The spectrum of the outer C object is very well matched by Upper Scorpius M4 pm 0.5 standard spectra, with a Teff = 2945 pm 100 and a mass of 350 MJup. HIP 79124 B is detected at a separation of only 180 mas in a highly-correlated noise regime, and it falls in the spectral range M6 pm 0.5 with Teff = 2840 pm 190 and 100 MJup. Previous studies of stellar populations in Sco-Cen have highlighted a discrepancy in isochronal ages between the lower-mass and higher-mass populations. This could be explained either by an age spread in the region, or by conventional isochronal models failing to reproduce the evolution of low-mass stars. The HIP 79124 system should be coeval, and therefore it provides an ideal laboratory to test these scenarios. We place the three components in a color-magnitude diagram and find that the models predict a younger age for the two low-mass companions (3 Myr) than for the primary star (6 Myr). These results imply that the omission of magnetic effects in conventional isochronal models inhibit them from reproducing early low-mass stellar evolution, which is further supported by the fact that new models that include such effects provide more consistent ages in the HIP 79124 system., Comment: 13 pages, 10 figures, accepted in Astronomy and Astrophysics

We present H-band polarized scattered light imagery and JHK high-contrast spectroscopy of the protoplanetary disk around HD 163296 observed with the HiCIAO and SCExAO/CHARIS instruments at Subaru Observatory. The polarimetric imagery resolve a broken ring structure surrounding HD 163296 that peaks at a distance along the major axis of 0.65 (66 AU) and extends out to 0.98 (100 AU) along the major axis. Our 2011 H-band data exhibit clear axisymmetry, with the NW- and SE- side of the disk exhibiting similar intensities. Our data are clearly different than 2016 epoch H-band observations from VLT/SPHERE that found a strong 2.7x asymmetry between the NW- and SE-side of the disk. Collectively, these results indicate the presence of time variable, non-azimuthally symmetric illumination of the outer disk. Based on our 3D-MCRT modeling of contemporaneous IR spectroscopic and H-band polarized intensity imagery of the system, we suggest that while the system could plausibly host an inclined inner disk component, such a component is unlikely to be responsible for producing the observed time-dependent azimuthal variations in the outer scattered light disk of the system. While our SCExAO/CHARIS data are sensitive enough to recover the planet candidate identified from NIRC2 in the thermal IR, we fail to detect an object with a corresponding JHK brightness estimated from the atmospheric models of Baraffe et al. 2003. This suggests that the candidate is either fainter in JHK bands than model predictions, possibly due to extinction from the disk or atmospheric dust/clouds, or that it is an artifact of the dataset/data processing. Our SCExAO/CHARIS data lower the IR mass limits for planets inferred at larger stellocentric separations; however, these ALMA-predicted protoplanet candidates are currently still consistent with direct imaging constraints., Comment: 19 pages, 13 figures, 2 tables

Precision wavefront control on future segmented-aperture space telescopes presents significant challenges, particularly in the context of high-contrast exoplanet direct imaging. We present a new wavefront control architecture that translates the ground-based artificial guide star concept to space with a laser source aboard a second spacecraft, formation flying within the telescope field-of-view. We describe the motivating problem of mirror segment motion and develop wavefront sensing requirements as a function of guide star magnitude and segment motion power spectrum. Several sample cases with different values for transmitter power, pointing jitter, and wavelength are presented to illustrate the advantages and challenges of having a non-stellar-magnitude noise limited wavefront sensor for space telescopes. These notional designs allow increased control authority, potentially relaxing spacecraft stability requirements by two orders of magnitude, and increasing terrestrial exoplanet discovery space by allowing high-contrast observations of stars of arbitrary brightness., Comment: Submitted to AJ

We present new, near-infrared (1.1--2.4 $\mu m$) high-contrast imaging of the bright debris disk surrounding HIP 79977 with the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics system (SCExAO) coupled with the CHARIS integral field spectrograph. SCExAO/CHARIS resolves the disk down to smaller angular separations of (0.11"; $r \sim 14$ au) and at a higher significance than previously achieved at the same wavelengths. The disk exhibits a marginally significant east-west brightness asymmetry in $H$ band that requires confirmation. Geometrical modeling suggests a nearly edge-on disk viewed at a position angle of $\sim$ 114.6$^{o}$ east of north. The disk is best-fit by scattered-light models assuming strongly forward-scattering grains ($g$ $\sim$ 0.5--0.65) confined to a torus with a peak density at $r_{0}$ $\sim$ 53--75 au. We find that a shallow outer density power law of $\alpha_{out}=$-1-- -3 and flare index of $\beta = 1$ are preferred. Other disk parameters (e.g.~inner density power law and vertical scale height) are more poorly constrained. The disk has a slightly blue intrinsic color and its profile is broadly consistent with predictions from birth ring models applied to other debris disks. While HIP 79977's disk appears to be more strongly forward-scattering than most resolved disks surrounding 5--30 Myr-old stars, this difference may be due to observational biases favoring forward-scattering models for inclined disks vs. lower inclination, ostensibly neutral-scattering disks like HR 4796A's. Deeper, higher signal-to-noise SCExAO/CHARIS data can better constrain the disk's dust composition., Comment: 15 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables; accepted for publication in AJ

We present SCExAO/CHARIS high-contrast imaging/$JHK$ integral field spectroscopy of $\kappa$ And b, a directly-imaged low-mass companion orbiting a nearby B9V star. We detect $\kappa$ And b at a high signal-to-noise and extract high precision spectrophotometry using a new forward-modeling algorithm for (A-)LOCI complementary to KLIP-FM developed by Pueyo (2016). $\kappa$ And b's spectrum best resembles that of a low-gravity L0--L1 dwarf (L0--L1$\gamma$). Its spectrum and luminosity are very well matched by 2MASSJ0141-4633 and several other 12.5--15 $M_{\rm J}$ free floating members of the 40 $Myr$-old Tuc-Hor Association, consistent with a system age derived from recent interferometric results for the primary, a companion mass at/near the deuterium-burning limit (13$^{+12}_{-2}$ M$_{\rm J}$), and a companion-to-primary mass ratio characteristic of other directly-imaged planets ($q$ $\sim$ 0.005$^{+0.005}_{-0.001}$). We did not unambiguously identify additional, more closely-orbiting companions brighter and more massive than $\kappa$ And b down to $\rho$ $\sim$ 0.3" (15 au). SCExAO/CHARIS and complementary Keck/NIRC2 astrometric points reveal clockwise orbital motion. Modeling points towards a likely eccentric orbit: a subset of acceptable orbits include those that are aligned with the star's rotation axis. However, $\kappa$ And b's semimajor axis is plausibly larger than 75 au and in a region where disk instability could form massive companions. Deeper $\kappa$ And high-contrast imaging and low-resolution spectroscopy from extreme AO systems like SCExAO/CHARIS and higher resolution spectroscopy from Keck/OSIRIS or, later, IRIS on the Thirty Meter Telescope could help clarify $\kappa$ And b's chemistry and whether its spectrum provides an insight into its formation environment., Comment: 27 pages, 15 Figures, 6 Tables, 4 Appendices. Accepted for publication in AJ. Provides evidence reestablishing kappa And b as a directly-imaged planet

Note: A revised version of this is now published. Please cite and read (it's open access): Van Mechelen, I., Boulesteix, A.-L., Dangl, R., Dean, N., Hennig, C., Leisch, F., Steinley, D., Warrens, M. J. (2023). A white paper on good research practices in benchmarking: The case of cluster analysis. WIREs Data Mining and Knowledge Discovery, e1511. https://doi.org/10.1002/widm.1511 To achieve scientific progress in terms of building a cumulative body of knowledge, careful attention to benchmarking is of the utmost importance. This means that proposals of new methods of data pre-processing, new data-analytic techniques, and new methods of output post-processing, should be extensively and carefully compared with existing alternatives, and that existing methods should be subjected to neutral comparison studies. To date, benchmarking and recommendations for benchmarking have been frequently seen in the context of supervised learning. Unfortunately, there has been a dearth of guidelines for benchmarking in an unsupervised setting, with the area of clustering as an important subdomain. To address this problem, discussion is given to the theoretical conceptual underpinnings of benchmarking in the field of cluster analysis by means of simulated as well as empirical data. Subsequently, the practicalities of how to address benchmarking questions in clustering are dealt with, and foundational recommendations are made.

For the first time in human history, technologies have matured sufficiently to enable a mission capable of discovering and characterizing habitable planets like Earth orbiting sunlike stars other than the Sun. At the same time, such a platform would enable unique science not possible from ground-based facilities. This science is broad and exciting, ranging from new investigations of our own solar system to a full range of astrophysics disciplines. The Habitable Exoplanet Observatory, or HabEx, is one of four studies currently being undertaken by NASA in preparation for the 2020 Astrophysics Decadal Survey. HabEx has been designed to be the Great Observatory of the 2030s, with community involvement through a competed and funded Guest Observer (GO) program. This interim report describes the HabEx baseline concept, which is a space-based 4-meter diameter telescope mission concept with ultraviolet (UV), optical, and near-infrared (near-IR) imaging and spectroscopy capabilities. More information on HabEx can be found at https://www.jpl.nasa.gov/habex, Comment: 212 Pages

Vibrations are a key source of image degradation in ground-based instrumentation, especially for high-contrast imaging instruments. Vibrations reduce the quality of the correction provided by the adaptive optics system, blurring the science image and reducing the sensitivity of most science modules. We studied vibrations using the Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) instrument at the Subaru Telescope as it is the most vibration sensitive system installed on the telescope. We observed vibrations for all targets, usually at low frequency, below 10 Hz. Using accelerometers on the telescope, we confirmed that these vibrations were introduced by the telescope itself, and not the instrument. It was determined that they were related to the pitch of the encoders of the telescope drive system, both in altitude and azimuth, with frequencies evolving proportionally to the rotational speed of the telescope. Another strong vibration was found in the altitude axis of the telescope, around the time of transit of the target, when the altitude rotation speed is below 0.12 arcsec/s. These vibrations are amplified by the 10-Hz control loop of the telescope, especially in a region between 4 and 6 Hz. In this work, we demonstrate an accurate characterization of the frequencies of the telescope vibrations using only the coordinates -right ascension and declination- of the target, and provide a means by which we can predict them for any telescope pointing. This will be a powerful tool that can be used by more advanced wavefront control algorithms, especially predictive control, that uses informations about the disturbance to calculate the best correction., Comment: 26 pages, 17 figures, published in the Journal of Astronomical Telescopes, Instruments, and Systems (JATIS)

The Subaru Coronagraphic Extreme Adaptive Optics (SCExAO) instrument is an extremely modular high-contrast instrument installed on the Subaru telescope in Hawaii. SCExAO has a dual purpose. Its position in the northern hemisphere on a 8-meter telescope makes it a prime instrument for the detection and characterization of exoplanets and stellar environments over a large portion of the sky. In addition, SCExAO's unique design makes it the ideal instrument to test innovative technologies and algorithms quickly in a laboratory setup and subsequently deploy them on-sky. SCExAO benefits from a first stage of wavefront correction with the facility adaptive optics AO188, and splits the 600-2400 nm spectrum towards a variety of modules, in visible and near infrared, optimized for a large range of science cases. The integral field spectrograph CHARIS, with its J, H or K-band high-resolution mode or its broadband low-resolution mode, makes SCExAO a prime instrument for exoplanet detection and characterization. Here we report on the recent developments and scientific results of the SCExAO instrument. Recent upgrades were performed on a number of modules, like the visible polarimetric module VAMPIRES, the high-performance infrared coronagraphs, various wavefront control algorithms, as well as the real-time controller of AO188. The newest addition is the 20k-pixel Microwave Kinetic Inductance Detector (MKIDS) Exoplanet Camera (MEC) that will allow for previously unexplored science and technology developments. MEC, coupled with novel photon-counting speckle control, brings SCExAO closer to the final design of future high-contrast instruments optimized for Giant Segmented Mirror Telescopes (GSMTs)., Comment: 12 pages, 9 figures, conference proceedings (SPIE Astronomical telescopes and instrumentation 2018)

We report an orbital characterization of GJ1108Aab that is a low-mass binary system in pre-main-sequence phase. Via the combination of astrometry using adaptive optics and radial velocity measurements, an eccentric orbital solution of $e$=0.63 is obtained, which might be induced by the Kozai-Lidov mechanism with a widely separated GJ1108B system. Combined with several observed properties, we confirm the system is indeed young. Columba is the most probable moving group, to which the GJ1108A system belongs, although its membership to the group has not been established. If the age of Columba is assumed for GJ1108A, the dynamical masses of both GJ1108Aa and GJ1108Ab ($M_{\rm dynamical,GJ1108Aa}=0.72\pm0.04 M_{\odot}$ and $M_{\rm dynamical,GJ1108Ab}=0.30\pm0.03 M_{\odot}$) are more massive than what an evolutionary model predicts based on the age and luminosities. We consider the discrepancy in mass comparison can attribute to an age uncertainty; the system is likely older than stars in Columba, and effects that are not implemented in classical models such as accretion history and magnetic activity are not preferred to explain the mass discrepancy. We also discuss the performance of the evolutionary model by compiling similar low-mass objects in evolutionary state based on the literature. Consequently, it is suggested that the current model on average reproduces the mass of resolved low-mass binaries without any significant offsets., Comment: Accepted in ApJ

We summarize the red channel (2-5 micron) of the Planetary Systems Imager (PSI), a proposed second-generation instrument for the TMT. Cold exoplanets emit the majority of their light in the thermal infrared, which means these exoplanets can be detected at a more modest contrast than at other wavelengths. PSI-Red will be able to detect and characterize a wide variety of exoplanets, including radial-velocity planets on wide orbits, accreting protoplanets in nearby star-forming regions, and reflected-light planets around the nearest stars. PSI-Red will feature an imager, a low-resolution lenslet integral field spectrograph, a medium-resolution lenslet+slicer integral field spectrograph, and a fiber-fed high-resolution spectrograph., Comment: 7 pages, 5 figures

SHARK-NIR is one of the two coronagraphic instruments proposed for the Large Binocular Telescope. Together with SHARK-VIS (performing coronagraphic imaging in the visible domain), it will offer the possibility to do binocular observations combining direct imaging, coronagraphic imaging and coronagraphic low resolution spectroscopy in a wide wavelength domain, going from 0.5{\mu}m to 1.7{\mu}m. Additionally, the contemporary usage of LMIRCam, the coronagraphic LBTI NIR camera, working from K to L band, will extend even more the covered wavelength range. In January 2017 SHARK-NIR underwent a successful final design review, which endorsed the instrument for construction and future implementation at LBT. We report here the final design of the instrument, which foresees two intermediate pupil planes and three focal planes to accomodate a certain number of coronagraphic techniques, selected to maximize the instrument contrast at various distances from the star. Exo-Planets search and characterization has been the science case driving the instrument design, but the SOUL upgrade of the LBT AO will increase the instrument performance in the faint end regime, allowing to do galactic (jets and disks) and extra-galactic (AGN and QSO) science on a relatively wide sample of targets, normally not reachable in other similar facilities., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, AO4ELT5 conference proceedings

The Optimal Optical CoronagraphWorkshop at the Lorentz Center in September 2017 in Leiden, the Netherlands gathered a diverse group of 25 researchers working on exoplanet instrumentation to stimulate the emergence and sharing of new ideas. This contribution is the final part of a series of three papers summarizing the outcomes of the workshop, and presents an overview of novel optical technologies and systems that are implemented or considered for high-contrast imaging instruments on both ground-based and space telescopes. The overall objective of high contrast instruments is to provide direct observations and characterizations of exoplanets at contrast levels as extreme as 10^-10. We list shortcomings of current technologies, and identify opportunities and development paths for new technologies that enable quantum leaps in performance. Specifically, we discuss the design and manufacturing of key components like advanced deformable mirrors and coronagraphic optics, and their amalgamation in "adaptive coronagraph" systems. Moreover, we discuss highly integrated system designs that combine contrast-enhancing techniques and characterization techniques (like high-resolution spectroscopy) while minimizing the overall complexity. Finally, we explore extreme implementations using all-photonics solutions for ground-based telescopes and dedicated huge apertures for space telescopes.

The Optimal Optical Coronagraph (OOC) Workshop at the Lorentz Center in September 2017 in Leiden, the Netherlands gathered a diverse group of 25 researchers working on exoplanet instrumentation to stimulate the emergence and sharing of new ideas. In this first installment of a series of three papers summarizing the outcomes of the OOC workshop, we present an overview of design methods and optical performance metrics developed for coronagraph instruments. The design and optimization of coronagraphs for future telescopes has progressed rapidly over the past several years in the context of space mission studies for Exo-C, WFIRST, HabEx, and LUVOIR as well as ground-based telescopes. Design tools have been developed at several institutions to optimize a variety of coronagraph mask types. We aim to give a broad overview of the approaches used, examples of their utility, and provide the optimization tools to the community. Though it is clear that the basic function of coronagraphs is to suppress starlight while maintaining light from off-axis sources, our community lacks a general set of standard performance metrics that apply to both detecting and characterizing exoplanets. The attendees of the OOC workshop agreed that it would benefit our community to clearly define quantities for comparing the performance of coronagraph designs and systems. Therefore, we also present a set of metrics that may be applied to theoretical designs, testbeds, and deployed instruments. We show how these quantities may be used to easily relate the basic properties of the optical instrument to the detection significance of the given point source in the presence of realistic noise., Comment: To appear in Proceedings of the SPIE, vol. 10698

The Optimal Optical Coronagraph (OOC) Workshop held at the Lorentz Center in September 2017 in Leiden, the Netherlands, gathered a diverse group of 25 researchers working on exoplanet instrumentation to stimulate the emergence and sharing of new ideas. In this second installment of a series of three papers summarizing the outcomes of the OOC workshop (see also~\citenum{ruane2018,snik2018}), we present an overview of common path wavefront sensing/control and Coherent Differential Imaging techniques, highlight the latest results, and expose their relative strengths and weaknesses. We layout critical milestones for the field with the aim of enhancing future ground/space based high contrast imaging platforms. Techniques like these will help to bridge the daunting contrast gap required to image a terrestrial planet in the zone where it can retain liquid water, in reflected light around a G type star from space., Comment: 18 pages, 9 figures

The challenges of high contrast imaging (HCI) for detecting exoplanets for both ground and space applications can be met with extreme adaptive optics (ExAO), a high-order adaptive optics system that performs wavefront sensing (WFS) and correction at high speed. We describe two ExAO optical system designs, one each for ground-based telescopes and space-based missions, and examine them using the angular spectrum Fresnel propagation module within the Physical Optics Propagation in Python (POPPY) package. We present an end-to-end (E2E) simulation of the MagAO-X instrument, an ExAO system capable of delivering 6$\times10^{-5}$ visible-light raw contrast for static, noncommon path aberrations without atmosphere. We present a laser guidestar (LGS) companion spacecraft testbed demonstration, which uses a remote beacon to increase the signal available for WFS and control of the primary aperture segments of a future large space telescope, providing on order of a factor of ten factor improvement for relaxing observatory stability requirements. The LGS E2E simulation provides an easily adjustable model to explore parameters, limits, and trade-offs on testbed design and characterization., Comment: 11 pages, 12 figures, SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 2018

Phase-Induced Amplitude Apodization Complex Mask Coronagraphs (PIAACMC) offer high-contrast performance at a small inner-working angle ($\approx$ 1 $\lambda$/D) with high planet throughput ($>$ 70%). The complex mask is a multi-zone, phase-shifting mask comprised of tiled hexagons which vary in depth. Complex masks can be difficult to fabricate as there are many micron-scale hexagonal zones ($>$ 500 on average) with continuous depths ranging over a few microns. Ensuring the broadband PIAACMC design performance carries through to fabricated devices requires that these complex masks are manufactured to within well-defined tolerances. We report on a simulated tolerance analysis of a "toy" PIAACMC design which characterizes the effect of common microfabrication errors on on-axis contrast performance using a simple Monte Carlo method. Moreover, the tolerance analysis provides crucial information for choosing a fabrication process which yields working devices while potentially reducing process complexity. The common fabrication errors investigated are zone depth discretization, zone depth errors, and edge artifacts between zones., Comment: 8 pages, 6 figures, SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation

The Magellan extreme adaptive optics (MagAO-X) instrument is a new extreme adaptive optics (ExAO) system designed for operation in the visible to near-IR which will deliver high contrast-imaging capabilities. The main AO system will be driven by a pyramid wavefront sensor (PyWFS); however, to mitigate the impact of quasi-static and non-common path (NCP) aberrations, focal plane wavefront sensing (FPWFS) in the form of low-order wavefront sensing (LOWFS) and spatial linear dark field control (LDFC) will be employed behind a vector apodizing phase plate (vAPP) coronagraph using rejected starlight at an intermediate focal plane. These techniques will allow for continuous high-contrast imaging performance at the raw contrast level delivered by the vAPP coronagraph 6 x 10^-5. We present simulation results for LOWFS and spatial LDFC with a vAPP coronagraph, as well as laboratory results for both algorithms implemented with a vAPP coronagraph at the University of Arizona Extreme Wavefront Control Lab., Comment: 17 pages, 22 figures

The MagAO-X instrument is an upgrade of the Magellan AO system that will introduce extreme adaptive optics capabilities for high-contrast imaging at visible and near-infrared wavelengths. A central component of this system is a 2040-actuator microelectromechanical (MEMS) deformable mirror (DM) from Boston Micromachines Corp. (BMC) that will operate at 3.63 kHz for high-order wavefront control. Two additional DMs from ALPAO will perform low-order and non-common-path science-arm wavefront correction. The accuracy of the wavefront correction is limited by our ability to command these DMs to a desired shape, which requires a careful characterization of each DM surface. We have developed a characterization pipeline that uses a Zygo Verifire Interferometer to measure the surface response and a Karhunen-Lo\`eve transform to remove noise from our measurements. We present our progress in the characterization process and the results of our pipeline applied to an ALPAO DM97 and a BMC Kilo-DM, demonstrating the ability to drive the DMs to a flat of $\lesssim$ 2nm and $\lesssim$ 4nm RMS in our beam footprint on the University of Arizona Wavefront Control (UAWFC) testbed., Comment: 7 pages, 10 figures, SPIE Astronomical Telescopes + Instrumentation 2018

The success of ground-based, high contrast imaging for the detection of exoplanets in part depends on the ability to differentiate between quasi-static speckles caused by aberrations not corrected by adaptive optics (AO) systems, known as non-common path aberrations (NCPAs), and the planet intensity signal. Frazin (ApJ, 2013) introduced a post-processing algorithm demonstrating that simultaneous millisecond exposures in the science camera and wavefront sensor (WFS) can be used with a statistical inference procedure to determine both the series expanded NCPA coefficients and the planetary signal. We demonstrate, via simulation, that using this algorithm in a closed-loop AO system, real-time estimation and correction of the quasi-static NCPA is possible without separate deformable mirror (DM) probes. Thus the use of this technique allows for the removal of the quasi-static speckles that can be mistaken for planetary signals without the need for new optical hardware, improving the efficiency of ground-based exoplanet detection. In our simulations, we explore the behavior of the Frazin Algorithm (FA) and the dependence of its convergence to an accurate estimate on factors such as Strehl ratio, NCPA strength, and number of algorithm search basis functions. We then apply this knowledge to simulate running the algorithm in real-time in a nearly ideal setting. We then discuss adaptations that can be made to the algorithm to improve its real-time performance, and show their efficacy in simulation. A final simulation tests the technique's resilience against imperfect knowledge of the AO residual phase, motivating an analysis of the feasibility of using this technique in a real closed-loop Extreme AO system such as SCExAO or MagAO-X, in terms of computational complexity and the accuracy of the estimated quasi-static NCPA correction., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures

Adaptive optics systems correct atmospheric turbulence in real time. Most adaptive optics systems used routinely correct in the near infrared, at wavelengths greater than 1 micron. MagAO- X is a new extreme adaptive optics (ExAO) instrument that will offer corrections at visible-to- near-IR wavelengths. MagAO-X will achieve Strehl ratios greater than 70% at H-alpha when running the 2040 actuator deformable mirror at 3.6 kHz. A visible pyramid wavefront sensor (PWFS) optimized for sensing at 600-1000 nm wavelengths will provide the high-order wavefront sensing on MagAO- X. We present the optical design and predicted performance of the MagAO-X pyramid wavefront sensor., Comment: SPIE Conference Proceedings, Telescopes and Instruments 2018 Austin

MagAO-X is an entirely new "extreme" adaptive optics system for the Magellan Clay 6.5 m telescope, funded by the NSF MRI program starting in Sep 2016. The key science goal of MagAO-X is high-contrast imaging of accreting protoplanets at H$\alpha$. With 2040 actuators operating at up to 3630 Hz, MagAO-X will deliver high Strehls (>70%), high resolution (19 mas), and high contrast ($< 1\times10^{-4}$) at H$\alpha$ (656 nm). We present an overview of the MagAO-X system, review the system design, and discuss the current project status., Comment: Presented at SPIE Astronomical Telescopes and Instrumentation 2018

We are building a next-generation laser adaptive optics system, Robo-AO-2, for the UH 2.2-m telescope that will deliver robotic, diffraction-limited observations at visible and near-infrared wavelengths in unprecedented numbers. The superior Maunakea observing site, expanded spectral range and rapid response to high-priority events represent a significant advance over the prototype. Robo-AO-2 will include a new reconfigurable natural guide star sensor for exquisite wavefront correction on bright targets and the demonstration of potentially transformative hybrid AO techniques that promise to extend the faintness limit on current and future exoplanet adaptive optics systems., Comment: 15 pages

We discuss some of the unique details of the operation and behavior of Leonardo SAPHIRA detectors, particularly in relation to their usage for adaptive optics wavefront sensing. SAPHIRA detectors are 320$\times$256@24 $\mu$m pixel HgCdTe linear avalanche photodiode arrays and are sensitive to 0.8-2.5 $\mu m$ light. SAPHIRA arrays permit global or line-by-line resets, of the entire detector or just subarrays of it, and the order in which pixels are reset and read enable several readout schemes. We discuss three readout modes, the benefits, drawbacks, and noise sources of each, and the observational modes for which each is optimal. We describe the ability of the detector to read subarrays for increased frame rates, and finally clarify the differences between the avalanche gain (which is user-adjustable) and the charge gain (which is not)., Comment: 13 pages, 4 figures, 2 tables, accepted to JATIS

We conducted high-contrast polarimetry observations of T Tau in the H-band, using the HiCIAO instrument mounted on the Subaru Telescope, revealing structures as near as 0.$\arcsec$1 from the stars T Tau N and T Tau S. The whole T Tau system is found to be surrounded by nebula-like envelopes, and several outflow-related structures are detected in these envelopes. We analyzed the detailed polarization patterns of the circumstellar structures near each component of this triple young star system and determined constraints on the circumstellar disks and outflow structures. We suggest that the nearly face-on circumstellar disk of T Tau N is no larger than 0.$\arcsec$8, or 117 AU, in the northwest, based on the existence of a hole in this direction, and no larger than 0.$\arcsec$27, or 40 AU, in the south. A new structure "N5" extends to about 0.$\arcsec$42, or 59 AU, on the southwest of the star, believed to be part of the disk. We suggest that T Tau S is surrounded by a highly inclined circumbinary disk with a radius of about 0.$\arcsec$3, or 44 AU, with a position angle of about 30$^\circ$, that is misaligned with the orbit of the T Tau S binary. After analyzing the positions and polarization vector patterns of the outflow-related structures, we suggest that T Tau S should trigger the well-known E-W outflow, and is also likely to be responsible for a southwest precessing outflow "coil" and a possible south outflow., Comment: 12 pages, 6 figures, accepted by The Astrophysical Journal

This Final Report (FR) presents the results of the Enhanced direct imaging exoplanet detection with astrometry mass determination project, which was executed in support of NASA's Exoplanet Exploration Program and the ROSES Technology Development for Exoplanet Missions (TDEM). The first milestone is concerned with a demonstration of medium fidelity astrometry accuracy and the second milestone demonstrates high-contrast imaging utilizing the same astrometry-capable optics. We have met milestone #1 with a comfortable margin. The average accuracy obtained over the three datasets is 5.75e-5 L/D, which is 4 times better than the milestone requirement, or equivalent to 2.5microarcsec on 2.4m telescope, or 1.5microarcsec for a 4m telescope, working in the visible band. These results show the potential of this technique to enable detection and measure masses of Earth-like planets around nearby stars, hence bringing a real benefit to the astronomy community. We also met milestone #2 and demonstrated that it is possible to achieve high-contrast imaging utilizing a coronagraph fed by a telescope equipped with a DP, enabling dual use of the telescope. We performed three different high-contrast imaging runs and met the milestone #2 of 5e-7 raw contrast for all of them. On average, we obtained 3.33e-7 raw contrast considering all data sets. This result is 35% better than the milestone #2 requirement. We validated the stability of the high-contrast region by averaging frames and subtracting the average from single frames, which resulted in contrast improvement of approximately one order of magnitude, reaching 2.72e-8 contrast. The main achievement of this work was the medium fidelity demonstration and feasibility validation of performing astrometry and direct imaging using the same instrument, significantly enhancing the expected scientific yield of dedicated exoplanet characterization missions.

We address the problem of maintaining high voltage power transmission networks in security at all time. This requires that power flowing through all lines remain below a certain nominal thermal limit above which lines might melt, break or cause other damages. Current practices include enforcing the deterministic "N-1" reliability criterion, namely anticipating exceeding of thermal limit for any eventual single line disconnection (whatever its cause may be) by running a slow, but accurate, physical grid simulator. New conceptual frameworks are calling for a probabilistic risk based security criterion and are in need of new methods to assess the risk. To tackle this difficult assessment, we address in this paper the problem of rapidly ranking higher order contingencies including all pairs of line disconnections, to better prioritize simulations. We present a novel method based on neural networks, which ranks "N-1" and "N-2" contingencies in decreasing order of presumed severity. We demonstrate on a classical benchmark problem that the residual risk of contingencies decreases dramatically compared to considering solely all "N-1" cases, at no additional computational cost. We evaluate that our method scales up to power grids of the size of the French high voltage power grid (over 1000 power lines)., Comment: IEEE WCCI 2018, Jul 2018, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. 2018

We address the problem of maintaining high voltage power transmission networks in security at all time, namely anticipating exceeding of thermal limit for eventual single line disconnection (whatever its cause may be) by running slow, but accurate, physical grid simulators. New conceptual frameworks are calling for a probabilistic risk-based security criterion. However, these approaches suffer from high requirements in terms of tractability. Here, we propose a new method to assess the risk. This method uses both machine learning techniques (artificial neural networks) and more standard simulators based on physical laws. More specifically we train neural networks to estimate the overall dangerousness of a grid state. A classical benchmark problem (manpower 118 buses test case) is used to show the strengths of the proposed method.