Search

Atlantic decadal-to-bidecadal variability (ADV) is described from a multimillennial control integration of a version of the Kiel Climate Model (KCM). The KCM's ADV is the second most energetic mode of long-term North Atlantic variability in that simulation, whereas the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is the leading mode that has been described in a previous study. The KCM's ADV can be regarded as a mixed oceanic gyre-overturning circulation mode that is forced by the North Atlantic Oscillation. The extratropical North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies associated with the model's ADV initially exhibit a tripolar structure in the meridional direction, which is linked to the gyre circulation. After some years, the SST-anomaly pattern turns into a monopolar pattern located in the subpolar North Atlantic. This transition is related to the overturning circulation. The AMV and the ADV co-exist and share some similarities. Both modes of variability rely on the upper-ocean heat transport into the subpolar North Atlantic. They differ in the importance of the gyre and overturning circulations. In the ADV, gyre and overturning-heat transports into the subpolar North Atlantic are equally important in contrast to the AMV where the overturning contribution dominates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The decadal variability of extreme high temperature (EHT) in the mid and highlatitudes of continental Asia (MHLCA) and associated mechanisms were investigated. Observational analysis indicated that, after removing global warming, the first leading mode of the EHT events showed a meridional dipole pattern and had significant decadal variability. During the periods 1980–1994 and 2012–2019 (1995–2011), EHT events were more frequent and stronger (less frequent and weaker) in western-central Siberia than normal, whereas they were less frequent and weaker (more frequent and stronger) in the wide area to the south of Lake Baikal. Further Observational and CESM (Community Earth System Model) results based analysis suggested that decadal change in air–sea interaction in the North Atlantic play an important role in shaping the decadal variability of EHT events in MHLCA. On decadal timescales, meridional negative–positive–negative sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic and their coupled positive North Atlantic Oscillation can trigger stronger wave activity flux and cause a significant anticyclonic–cyclonic teleconnection wave train in the troposphere over the mid and high latitudes of the Eurasian continent. As a result, an anomalous high-pressure center is evident in western-central Siberia, and thereby reducing total cloud cover and causing stronger solar heating. Thus, EHT events become more frequent and stronger. On the contrary, for the areas south of Lake Baikal, EHT events are weakened by corresponding cyclonic circulation anomalies. Additionally, the CAM5 (Community Atmosphere Model version 5) experiments suggested more important driving role of the decadal North Atlantic tripole SST anomalies in the abovementioned processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The westerly wind on the poleward side of the summer polar jet stream (PJS) over the Western Hemisphere has significantly weakened since the 1980s. A weak summer PJS causes warming surface temperatures and deficient precipitation over Alaska and western North America, favoring extreme wildfire events. This study investigates influences of Arctic sea ice loss on the summer PJS variability over the Western Hemisphere. Regression analysis first provides observational evidence that Arctic sea ice reduction is related to a weakening summer Western Hemisphere PJS at interannual time scales. Atmospheric model ensemble simulations are then used to demonstrate that Arctic sea ice loss significantly contributes to observed Western Hemisphere Arctic warming and reduced meridional temperature gradient between midlatitudes and the pole in the lower and middle troposphere, acting to weaken the troposphere zonal wind and vertical wind shear from 55° to 75°N, and about 20–30% of observed weakened summer PJS trend during 1979–2014. Observational analysis and the model-based results also indicate that a significant portion of the observed trends of the PJS and vertical wind shear during 1979–2014 might be attributed to the decadal variability of the summer North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). In the future climate, as more and more ice melts in the summer, the weakening effect of sea ice on the PJS will continue and will be superimposed onto the natural decadal variability of the PJS. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme heat events happen frequently in East Asia, and may cause great damage to the ecosystem and society. The synergistic effect of the summer positive North Atlantic Oscillation (pNAO) and positive northwest Pacific (pNWP) sea surface temperature anomaly (SSTA) on the interannual variability of the extreme heat events in the central–eastern China (CEC) is investigated in this study. The two factors act synergistically in strengthening the extreme heat events in the CEC via a series of atmospheric bridges, and the CEC is likely to experience a hotter summer when both the summer pNAO and pNWP SSTA occur. The pNWP SSTA increases the strength of pNAO via the eastward propagating Rossby wave from the western Pacific. The enhanced pNAO induces a stronger eastward Rossby wave propagation across the Eurasian continent, and leads to a strong anomalous anticyclone over the CEC. The significantly increased atmosphere thickness increases the air temperature of the layer, and favors the extreme heat events in the CEC. Besides, the pNWP SSTA also has adjacent effect on the atmospheric circulation over the CEC, which could lead to a positive geopotential height anomaly. Therefore, the summer pNAO and pNWP SSTA act synergistically in influencing the atmospheric circulation over the CEC, and thereby significantly increase the extreme heat events in the CEC. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Profound changes in Earth's biogeochemical cycles are recorded in the sedimentology and geochemistry of carbonate sediments, with much of the early geological history of our planet recorded in carbonate mud precipitated from seawater. Despite their relevance for understanding early Earth, the trigger for whitings—carbonate spontaneously precipitated from the water column—remains intensely debated. Here, we used a neural network to map whitings imaged by daily MODIS Aqua satellite overpasses between 2003 and 2018 on Great Bahama Bank (GBB). Our results show that the frequency of whitings after 2011 increased by 3.3× compared to those recorded between 2003 and 2010, with the frequency of winter whitings increasing more than those in the summer. We contend that the period of increased whitings frequency was spurred by concurrent perturbations to the North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, and the El Niño Southern Oscillation in 2010 that facilitated enhanced hydrodynamic mixing between the waters atop GBB and those that surround it. We conclude that whitings can exhibit a sensitive but non‐linear response to ocean‐atmosphere dynamics which is unlikely to be resolved in the geological record using conventional stratigraphic techniques. This pronounced fluctuation in mud production on short timescales contrasts with expectations of persistent tranquility in the depositional environments that produce lime mud. Our results suggest that long‐established links between ocean‐atmosphere dynamics and the lime mud budget through Earth history may require reevaluation. Plain Language Summary: The size, composition, and distribution of carbonate sediment produced in the oceans are quantifiable features that enable reconstructions of environmental conditions throughout Earth history. Lime mud is a fine‐grained carbonate sediment that is commonly found in ancient rocks, but relatively rare in the modern oceans. However, Great Bahama Bank (GBB) has significant accumulations of lime mud thought to be produced by ongoing whitings. Whitings are a geological phenomenon that can be observed from orbit as milky white patches of seawater. Using a combination of satellite‐based remote sensing observations and deep learning, we created a two‐decade record of the frequency of whitings. Our results show, for the first time, that a pronounced change in ocean‐atmosphere dynamics more than tripled the frequency of whitings on GBB. Conventional geological methods cannot resolve such short‐time scale dependencies, so our study of modern lime mud formation provides useful insights into processes that happened in the ancient geological record, facilitating more accurate interpretations of environmental conditions throughout Earth history. Key Points: A perturbation to North Atlantic ocean‐climate dynamics in 2010 spurred a 3.3× increase in whitings lime mud productionLime mud production by whitings responds non‐linearly and disproportionately to subtle ocean‐atmosphere interactions on decadal timescalesClimate control on lime mud production provides new insight into one of the principal sedimentary archives of Earth's biogeochemical cycles [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many previous studies have documented the relationship between the North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) and the weather/climate of upstream and downstream regions. However, the stability of NPO precursor signals of East Asian summer precipitation, which is important for climate prediction, has received little attention. This study identified temporal variations in the connection between the May NPO and subsequent midsummer precipitation over Northeast China (NEC) during 1961–2020. During 1986–2010, the correlation between the May NPO and midsummer precipitation over NEC was found significantly positive, whereas the relation was found statistically insignificant during 1961–1985/2011–2020. Further results indicated that the NPO stimulated a Rossby wave source over the North Pacific that was stronger during 1986–2010 than during 1961–1985/2011–2020. The Rossby wave source anomalies shifted to North America and to the North Atlantic during the subsequent June and midsummer, respectively. Consequently, a teleconnection wave train, which originated over the North Pacific, propagated eastward to North America, across the North Atlantic, and on to East Asia on the subseasonal time scale, influencing midsummer precipitation over NEC through modulation of the atmospheric circulation (e.g., horizontal wind, moisture transport, and vertical movement). Moreover, the intensified Rossby wave anomalies associated with the May NPO were attributed to the strengthened NPO, which could be related to the enhanced standard deviation of SLP over the North Pacific. Additionally, the strengthened out‐of‐phase relation between the NPO and the North Atlantic Oscillation, resulting from changes in the background circulation, partially contributed to intensification of the Rossby wave train. Plain Language Summary: The North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) is an important intrinsic atmospheric variability which is characterized by a north–south seesaw in sea level pressure over the North Pacific Ocean. The NPO has substantial influences on the weather/climate conditions over North America and East Asia. However, the relation between NPO and East Asian climate is not stationary. This study identified a temporal variation in the connection between the May NPO and the midsummer precipitation over Northeast China (NEC) during 1961–2020, which shows a strong (weak) correlation during 1986–2010 (1961–1985 and 2011–2020). This is attributed to the different atmospheric circulation patterns caused by the NPO during the three periods. The NPO can simulate stronger perturbation to the atmosphere during 1986–2010 than during 1961–1985 and 2011–2020. Consequently, the perturbed atmospheric waves can propagate eastward to North America, across the North Atlantic, and toward East Asia during 1986–2010, leading to anomalous atmospheric circulation in East Asia and influencing the midsummer precipitation over NEC. The strengthening of the NPO and the enhanced relation between the NPO and North Atlantic Oscillation during 1986–2010 can explain the above changes. This study may deepen our understanding of the influence of NPO on the East Asian climate and may be meaningful for climate prediction. Key Points: The effect of May North Pacific Oscillation (NPO) on summer rainfall at Northeast China (NEC) is not stable, with a strong (weak) relation for 1986–2010 (for 1961–1985 and 2011–2020)This is attributed to a stronger Rossby wave source stimulated by NPO during 1986–2010 than during 1961–1985 and 2011–2020The strengthened Rossby wave related with NPO is attributed to the intensification of NPO and to the enhanced relation between NPO and North Atlantic Oscillation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Yili Basin represents a typical region influenced by the Westerlies, and as a result of the substantial precipitation delivered by these winds, it has emerged as a significant hub for agricultural and animal husbandry activities in Central Asia. This study established a 419-year tree-ring width chronology, utilizing living Picea schrenkiana samples from two sampling sites in the Yili Basin. Correlation analysis showed that the standard tree-ring width chronology had the best correlation with the Palmer Drought Severity Index from the previous August to the current May (PDSIP8C5) (r = 0.614, n = 59, p < 0.001). Therefore, we reconstructed PDSIP8C5 variations from 1673 to 2018. The reconstruction results reveal eight wet and seven dry periods during the past 346 years. In the reconstructed series, droughts are particularly pronounced around 1770 and 1920, and the PDSI shows a significant long-term wetting trend since the 1980s. The solar activity, North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) jointly influenced the regional moisture variation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investigating the synchronized structure and teleconnection patterns of meteorological drought events (MDEs) contributes to elucidating drought's evolution. In this study, the CN05.1 gridded meteorological dataset from 1961 to 2021 was utilized to calculate the 3-month standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI-3) for each grid in the Yangtze River Basin (YRB). Based on these SPEI-3 series, the grid-based MDEs were then extracted. Subsequently, event synchronization and complex networks were employed to construct the MDE synchronized network over the YRB. This network was used to identify the MDEs' topological structure, synchronized subregions, and representative grids. Finally, the MDE characteristics and MDE teleconnection patterns of individual subregions were investigated. The results of the MDE topological structure show that the northeastern portion of the YRB tends to experience widespread MDEs, while specific areas in the upper reaches are prone to localized MDEs. Synchronous MDEs mainly propagate along the central pathway and the eastern pathway, which display relatively low MDE spatial coherence. The YRB is partitioned into eight MDE synchronized subregions, each exhibiting distinct characteristics in terms of the frequency, duration, total severity, and peak of MDEs, as well as MDE temporal frequency distributions. Among all teleconnection factors, El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) exerts a strong influence on MDEs in all subregions, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) shows a significant association with MDEs in all subregions except for Subregion 3 in the southeast, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) displays a significant influence on MDEs in the southern subregions of the YRB, and the Arctic Oscillation (AO) has a more pronounced influence on MDEs in the northern subregions. This study provides valuable insights on drought's evolution within the YRB and offers guidance to policymakers for advanced preventive measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in vegetation in North America indicate Holocene shifts in the latitudinal temperature gradient along the western margin of the North Atlantic. Tree taxa such as oak (Quercus) and birch (Betula) experienced opposing directions of change across different latitudes consistent with changes in temperature gradient steepness. Pollen‐inferred temperatures from 34 sites quantify the gradient changes and reconstruct a long‐term northward steepening in summer and southward steepening in winter. From 4.8 to 3.8 ka, an oscillation in tree distributions interrupted the long‐term trends as a steep temperature gradient developed north of 43.5°N. The shift likely limited cold outbreaks to the south, producing anomalously high summer temperatures at 42–43.5°N, and enabling a northward expansion of oak forests. The forest and temperature gradient changes appear consistent with orbital and ice sheet forcing as well as millennial variability in the North Atlantic pressure field analogous to the North Atlantic Oscillation on interannual time scales. Plain Language Summary: In the Northern Hemisphere, average temperatures decline with latitude as climates cool toward the pole. Changes in this temperature pattern have significant consequences for weather systems and ecosystems. Past changes likely impacted the geographic extent of summer warmth and winter freezing that can determine where tree species can grow. In this study, fossil evidence of ancient tree distributions revealed how the poleward temperature gradient near the Atlantic coast of North America fluctuated over the past 11,700 years. Long‐term forest and temperature changes developed in response to the deglaciation of Canada and Earth's slow orbital changes. However, a particularly striking change 4,800–3,800 years ago briefly expanded oak‐hickory forests into mid‐latitude highlands otherwise dominated by cold‐tolerant northern tree species. The forest histories demonstrate the potential for ecosystems to change rapidly in the future, but also how fossil records can reveal poorly understood patterns and processes of millennial‐scale climate variability. Temperature patterns detected here may be analogous to patterns of climate variability in the North Atlantic region at monthly‐to‐annual scales. Key Points: A major ecotone in eastern North America, which is linked to the latitudinal temperature gradient, shifted repeatedly during the HolocenePollen‐inferred temperatures from different latitudes across the ecotone reveal gradient responses to deglaciation and orbital changeChanges at 4.8–3.8 ka also indicate millennial‐scale variability with patterns analogous to the North Atlantic Oscillation [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the interdecadal variability (IDV) of the interface between the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon (IIE). Results suggest that the IDV of the IIE is characterized by a uniform zonal movement associated with seesaw variations between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). The IDV of the IIE is closely linked to two air–sea coupled modes: one resembles the Asian–Pacific Oscillation (APO) and the other resembles the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) pattern. Both the APO‐like and NAT‐like patterns facilitate an eastward shift of the IIE during their positive phase. The APO‐like mode strengthens the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which further enhances the climatological southwesterly wind over East Asia and leads to an intensification of the EASM. The simultaneous anticyclonic anomaly over the India and Bay of Bengal (BOB) region weakens the ISM. The NAT‐like mode forces a wave train of alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic anomalies across Eurasia, causing southwesterly anomalies over East Asia that favors a stronger EASM. The atmospheric response is reversed during the negative phases of the APO‐like and NAT‐like patterns. Recent decades have seen a weakening influence of the APO‐like mode, but a growing impact of the NAT‐like mode on the IIE‐IDV. The interdecadal transition of the IIE–APO and IIE–NAT relationships has a smaller influence on the IIE than that of the phase change of the APO‐like and NAT‐like patterns. Modeling results confirm the influence of the APO‐like and NAT‐like patterns on the IIE‐IDV. Plain Language Summary: We investigated the interdecadal variability (IDV) of the interface (IIE) between the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) and the East Asian summer monsoon (EASM). We found a significant IIE‐IDV characterized by a uniform zonal movement. The IIE‐IDV is closely linked to two air‐sea coupled modes: one resembles the Asia‐Pacific oscillation (APO) and the other resembles the North Atlantic tripole (NAT) mode. Both modes facilitate the eastward shift of the IIE during their positive phase. The APO‐like mode drives the IIE to shift eastward by strengthening the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), whereas the NAT‐like mode affects the IIE‐IDV by inducing a wave train of alternating cyclonic and anticyclonic anomaly across Eurasia. The effect of APO‐like mode has weakened in recent decades, but the NAT‐like mode have an increasing impact on the IIE‐IDV. The stronger the influence, the weaker the air‐sea coupled modes. The model results confirmed the main features of IIE‐IDV and the guiding role of APO‐like and NAT‐like modes. Key Points: The interface between the Indian summer monsoon and the East Asian summer monsoon shows a uniform zonal movement at interdecadal timescaleThe Asian–Pacific Oscillation and the North Atlantic tripole modes have a major impact on the interface between the two monsoon systemsThere is an interdecadal transition in the relationship between the monsoon interface and exogenous modulators [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent studies have shown that seasonal forecasting systems have significant skill in predicting northern European winds and storms in winter, but other seasons have not been so extensively analysed. Given this fact, and coupled with requests from users of the Met Office 3-month outlook for the United Kingdom (UK), we have investigated the skill in predicting seasonal (3-month) mean UK wind speed and storms (extreme winds) with a one-month lead-time, throughout the year, using a large ensemble from the Met Office's seasonal prediction system, GloSea. We find that seasonal UK storms and mean wind speeds are well correlated, and therefore a single prediction of UK mean wind speed will give an indication of predicted storm counts. Skill for these predictions is highest in winter (December-February), related to predictability of the North Atlantic Oscillation. In contrast, summer (June-August) UK wind skill is not significant and furthermore appears to be negative. We find evidence, in both observations and model members, for a Rossby wave from the tropics influencing UK summer winds and forming a significant predictable component in the model ensemble mean. However, the model predictable signal appears to be out of phase with that observed leading to the negative correlation. Further investigation into summer Rossby wave generation and propagation is necessary to understand whether summer predictions could be improved. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the possible links between the Barents-Kara sea-ice area (SIA), Ural blocking, and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in December-January (DJ) and February-March (FM) using the ERA5 data for the period December 1979-March 2022. The Barents-Kara SIA loss in December is correlated with an increase in geopotential height at 500 hPa (Z500), mean sea-level pressure (MSLP), and the frequency and intensity of blocking over the Ural in DJ. The Barents-Kara SIA loss in December is also associated with the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex in FM (particularly in mid-February) and the negative NAO index. However, our results show that persistent Ural blocking occurs during the transition from a neutral or positive NAO index to its negative phase. Indeed, a significant decrease in NAO index leads to the development of an area of instantaneous blocking (IB) and positive Z500 anomalies over the Ural. Persistent Ural blocking contributes significantly to Barents-Kara SIA loss, with a peak decline about seven days after the onset of Ural blocking. The onset of persistent Ural blocking also precedes the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex by about one month. This implies that the negative correlation between the Barents-Kara SIA loss in December and the NAO index in FM might be caused by the weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex, which itself is induced by persistent Ural blocking. We conclude that the Barents-Kara SIA loss in December can be viewed as a sign rather than the cause of changes in atmospheric circulation over the high-latitude North Atlantic in succeeding months, because the Barents-Kara SIA also largely responds to Ural blocking and the NAO. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Explosive cyclones (ECs), defined as extratropical cyclones that experience normalized pressure drops of at least 24 hPa in 24 h, are impactful weather events in the North Atlantic sector, but year-to-year changes in the frequency and impacts of these storms are sizeable. To analyze the sources of this interannual variability, we track cases of ECs and dissect them into two spatial groups: those that formed near the east coast of North America (coastal) and those in the north central Atlantic (high latitude). The frequency of high-latitude ECs is strongly correlated with the North Atlantic Oscillation, a well-known feature, whereas coastal EC frequency is statistically linked with an atmospheric wave train emanating from the North Pacific in the last 30 years. This wave train pattern of alternating high and low pressure is associated with heightened upper-level divergence and Eady growth rates along the east coast of North America, likely resulting in a stronger correspondence between the atmospheric wave train and coastal EC frequency. Using coupled model experiments, we show that the tropical and North Pacific oceans are an important factor for this atmospheric wave train and the subsequent enhancement of seasonal baroclinicity in the North Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Montreal Protocol and its amendments (MPA) have been a huge success in preserving the stratospheric ozone layer from being destroyed by unabated chlorofluorocarbon (CFC) emissions. The phaseout of CFCs has not only prevented serious impacts on our health and climate, but also avoided strong alterations of atmospheric circulation patterns. With the Earth system model SOCOLv4, we study the dynamical and climatic impacts of a scenario with unabated CFC emissions by 2100, disentangling radiative and chemical (ozone-mediated) effects of CFCs. In the stratosphere, chemical effects of CFCs (i.e., the resulting ozone loss) are the main drivers of circulation changes, weakening wintertime polar vortices and speeding up the Brewer–Dobson circulation. These dynamical impacts during wintertime are due to low-latitude ozone depletion and the resulting reduction in the Equator-to-pole temperature gradient. Westerly winds in the lower stratosphere strengthen, which is for the Southern Hemisphere (SH) similar to the effects of the Antarctic ozone hole over the second half of the 20th century. Furthermore, the winter and spring stratospheric wind variability increases in the SH, whereas it decreases in summer and fall. This seasonal variation in wind speed in the stratosphere has substantial implications for the major modes of variability in the tropospheric circulation in the scenario without the MPA (No-MPA). We find coherent changes in the troposphere, such as patterns that are reminiscent of negative Southern and Northern Annular modes (SAM and NAM) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) anomalies during seasons with a weakened vortex (winter and spring); the opposite occurs during seasons with strengthened westerlies in the lower stratosphere and troposphere (summer). In the troposphere, radiative heating by CFCs prevails throughout the year, shifting the SAM into a positive phase and canceling out the ozone-induced effects on the NAO, whereas the North Pacific sector shows an increase in the meridional sea-level pressure gradient as both CFC heating and ozone-induced effects reinforce each other there. Furthermore, global warming is amplified by 1.7 K with regionally up to a 12 K increase over eastern Canada and the western Arctic. Our study sheds light on the adverse effects of a non-adherence to the MPA on the global atmospheric circulation, uncovering the roles of the underlying physical mechanisms. In so doing, our study emphasizes the importance of the MPA for Earth's climate to avoid regional amplifications of negative climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Social behaviours can allow individuals to flexibly respond to environmental change, potentially buffering adverse effects. However, individuals may respond differently to the same environmental stimulus, complicating predictions for population-level response to environmental change. Here, we show that bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) alter their social behaviour at yearly and monthly scales in response to a proxy for food availability (salmon abundance) but do not respond to variation in a proxy for climate (the North Atlantic Oscillation index). There was also individual variation in plasticity for gregariousness and connectedness to distant parts of the social network, although these traits showed limited repeatability. By contrast, individuals showed consistent differences in clustering with their immediate social environment at the yearly scale but no individual variation in plasticity for this trait at either timescale. These results indicate that social behaviour in free-ranging cetaceans can be highly resource dependent with individuals increasing their connectedness over short timescales but possibly reducing their wider range of connection at longer timescales. Some social traits showed more individual variation in plasticity or mean behaviour than others, highlighting how predictions for the responses of populations to environmental variation must consider the type of individual variation present in the population. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in climate and weather variability are having global impacts on the lives of organisms, particularly on upper trophic-level predators such as pelagic seabirds. In the North Atlantic, migratory seabirds are expected to respond to climate variability by adjusting their seasonal events, including the timing of migration and arrival at the breeding site. The timing of these events may be influenced by large-scale atmospheric phenomena such as the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation (AMO) that gauge temporal and spatial variation in environmental conditions across the North Atlantic. In the Bermuda Islands (32° 17′ 58″ N, 64° 47′ 25″ W), the White-tailed tropicbird (Phaethon lepturus catsbyii) is one of the few breeding seabird species which returns every year between February and March after migration. According to local belief their return announces the arrival of Spring, and this cultural importance means that the event is noticed. Only recently, early tropicbird returns have been recorded and associated with unusual climate/weather conditions experienced across the region. This raised the question of whether the species is showing some change in its phenology and whether it might be affected by changing climatic conditions. To answer this question, we investigated tropicbird arrival dates at Bermuda using current and historic observation data retrieved from the eBird citizen science platform. After accounting for biases inherent to opportunistic data collection, we selected and used the first annual observation as a proxy for bird arrival time at the Bermuda breeding ground from 1953 to 2023. We found that tropicbird observation dates advanced substantially over the past 70 years suggesting that arrival time has been likely shifting of ca. 20–25 days. However, first observation dates were not related to the variation in annual or winter NAO and AMO Indices, and further investigation is required to understand the underlying causes of these progressively early arrivals. Overall, the study highlights that citizen-science data can be used to unveil hidden phonological patterns when a standardized long-term data collection is missing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Exploring the change and teleconnection of climate on the Tibetan Plateau is of utmost importance to understand global climate change. However, it remains further work because of two aspects: (1) The sparse and short observation provides limited information of climate change. (2) The teleconnection analysis mostly ignores the combined effects of multiple atmospheric circulation indices. This study used a climate dataset with grid size of 0.5′ for the period of 1901–2017 to analyze the spatiotemporal characteristics of precipitation and temperature on the Tibetan Plateau. Further, we employed the multivariate wavelet coherence to investigate the combined effects of multiple circulation indices (Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation—AMO, El Nino-Southern Oscillation—ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole Index—IOD, North Atlantic Oscillation—NAO, and North Pacific Oscillation—NPO) on climate at varying scales over time. The long-term averages of precipitation and temperature varied spatially because of the terrain effects. The climate for 1901–2017 was overall getting wetter and warmer, but the interannual variability split the whole study period into three sub-periods: drier and warmer for 1901–1940, wetter and colder for 1941–1966, and wetter and warmer for 1966–2017. For a single atmospheric circulation index, ENSO or NPO had the greatest impacts on the climate change at the scale of 8–16 months over the whole study period. Further, multiple atmospheric circulation index can combine to have simultaneous effects (e.g., NAO–NPO) on climate change. The interannual variability of climate can be attributed to that of a single or combined atmospheric circulation indices. These results provide fundamental information for studies of climate change on the Tibetan Plateau and the globe, and the multivariate wavelet analysis is promising in interpreting the impacts of atmospheric circulation on climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate information on population structure is essential for effective fisheries management. Greenland halibut (Reinhardtius hippoglossoides) in the North Atlantic is managed as four separate offshore stocks. We use Multivariate Autoregressive State‐Space (MARSS) models to assess population structure by means of abundance and biomass trends in four regions (Norwegian Sea, Iceland, Southeast Greenland, and Northwest Atlantic) where three offshore stocks are recognized: (1) Baffin Bay–Davis Strait (Northwest Atlantic stock), (2) Southeast Greenland and Iceland (West Nordic stock (WNS)), and (3) the Barents and Norwegian Seas (Northeast Arctic stock). We formulated model alternatives, using bottom trawl survey data from each region for 1996–2019, to evaluate support for different population structures. Abundance and biomass observations from each region were linked to growth rate parameters in MARSS models and the impact of climate (North Atlantic Oscillation Index) and fishing (commercial catches) on stock dynamics was investigated. Top models identified the Northwest Atlantic as an independent population. Best‐fit models treated Greenland halibut in the WNS as two independent populations (east and west), with potential connections between eastern Iceland and the western Barents Sea. These results suggest a mismatch between current stock perception and management boundaries in the Northeast Atlantic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study combines operational reforecasts (2001–21) with results from a lower-resolution 41-yr reforecast (1980–2020) to provide a robust assessment of wintertime Euro-Atlantic regimes and their modulation by tropospheric and stratospheric teleconnection pathways in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S). In both operational and lower-resolution reforecasts, the climatological properties of wintertime Euro-Atlantic regimes, including regime structures, frequencies, and transition probabilities, are accurately simulated at S2S lead times. However, the 41-yr reforecasts allow us to diagnose substantial errors in regime statistics when conditioned on modes of intraseasonal-to-interannual variability. In particular, ECMWF reforecasts underestimate the response of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) and fail to reproduce the modulation of MJO–NAO teleconnections by El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Teleconnection and atmospheric wave diagnostics highlight two specific issues that are likely to contribute to these conditional errors in ECMWF reforecasts: (i) insufficient propagation of Rossby wave activity from the Pacific to the Atlantic following MJO phase 3 during El Niño conditions, when the direct tropospheric teleconnection pathway is most active; and (ii) an underestimated response of the stratospheric polar vortex following MJO phase 8 during La Niña conditions, when the indirect stratospheric teleconnection pathway is most active. Improving the representation of tropospheric and stratospheric teleconnection pathways is thus a priority for improving ECMWF forecasts of extratropical weather regimes and their associated surface impacts. Significance Statement: Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction project (S2S) forecasts are used operationally at ECMWF to provide early warning of cold conditions in Europe associated with persistent large-scale circulation patterns known as weather regimes. On average, ECMWF reforecasts accurately simulate wintertime Euro-Atlantic regime structures and frequencies at S2S lead times. However, regime forecasts show substantial errors when we restrict our analysis to certain phases of intraseasonal and interannual variability, such as El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). These errors are related to deficiencies in the simulated response of weather regimes to well-predicted variability in the tropics. Improving the representation of such tropical–extratropical teleconnections will improve predictions of extratropical weather regimes and their associated surface impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In Europe, the increase in temperatures caused by climate change has been particularly fast in the cold season. Although the magnitude of this change is relatively well known, less research has been done on how the increase of temperatures is manifested in different large‐scale weather types, called weather regimes. For example, one could expect that the weather patterns in which air is flowing from the rapidly‐warming Arctic would have warmed faster than other weather patterns in recent decades. Here we show that such an asymmetric warming actually occurs in the four Euro‐Atlantic weather regimes. In northern Europe, the weather regime which is typically associated with cold airmasses from the Arctic (NAO–) has warmed about 25% faster than the cold‐season days on average, and about 60% faster than the regime where the air flows from the North Atlantic (NAO+). Consequently, the weather regime that on average brings the coldest weather is warming the fastest in a large part of northern Europe. In contrast, the weather regime that typically brings the warmest weather has warmed the slowest, especially in the continental Europe. Our results provide a new perspective on the reported decrease of sub‐seasonal temperature variability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sea level variations at the coast can have drastic environmental and socio-economic impacts in particular in the context of an ever-increasing coastal population and anthropogenic climate change. Regional to global climate variability influences all these factors and exerts a strong control on the coastal sea level over a wide range of time scales. Here, we focus on understanding interannual changes which is paramount to improve interannual forecasting systems as well as to constrain and reduce uncertainties on the secular trend in global mean sea level. We consider the coastal total water level (TWL) as the compound effect of three main components: the wave setup, mean regional sea level anomaly (i.e., steric and ocean circulation influences) and atmospheric surge (i.e., influence of local wind and surface atmospheric pressure). To understand their variability at a global scale, we focus on the effect of four climate modes that affect the major oceanic basins: the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and the Southern Annual Mode (SAM). The contrasted regional influence of these different climate modes on the interannual variations of TWL components are quantified. Results suggest that even if the regional mean sea level is overall the main contributor to the interannual variations of TWL variations at the coast and mostly related to ENSO, the contributions from wave setup and atmospheric surge are not negligible in particular at high latitudes and mostly related to the NAO in the Northern Atlantic and to the SAM in the Southern Hemisphere. Such influences from the NAO and SAM can be seen far away from their extratropical regions of action due to their atmospheric forcing of ocean waves that can significantly propagate their imprint towards tropical areas. Implications for interannual to decadal forecasts of the coastal TWL and related hazards are discussed in the light of regression statistical models and the climate modes own predictability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

During the 2022 summer season, parts of Western Europe experienced record-breaking high temperature and drought conditions that had negative societal impacts. To enhance the predictability of regional temperature variability in Western Europe, we regionalized summer temperature and defined the distinct large-scale features of the anomaly fields driving cold and warm regimes at the temperature coherent regions over the land. Our results showed that while temperature anomalies in Western Europe exhibit spatial variability, cold and warm regimes are spatially coherent across landmass where the regional climates respond coherently to large-scale atmospheric circulations. Generally, warm regimes were triggered by horizontal pressure gradients associated with warm advection, by southerly winds. The dominance of cyclonic circulation over the North Sea and anticyclonic circulation over the Mediterranean results in enhanced warm air advection by southwest winds into most of the land in Western Europe. Meridional pressure gradient over the North Atlantic Ocean, resulting in the dominance of southerly winds over the North Atlantic corresponds with positive temperature anomaly over Portugal and western Spain. The dominance of anticyclonic ridge from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea corresponds with above-average temperatures over the United Kingdom and Western France. Moreover, different teleconnection patterns such as the Indian Ocean dipole, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation and the Western Pacific Index are distinctively related to the summer temperature variability patterns. During the 2022 summer extreme temperature event, our results indicated above average increase in the amplitude of the circulations associated with warm regimes over the Western European landmass. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Given paleoclimatic evidence that the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) may affect the global climate system, we conduct model experiments with EC-Earth3, a state-of-the-art GCM, to specifically investigate, for the first time, mechanisms of precipitation change over the Euro-Atlantic sector induced by a weakened AMOC. We artificially weaken the strength of the AMOC in the model through the release of a freshwater anomaly into the Northern Hemisphere high latitude ocean, thereby obtaining a ~ 57% weaker AMOC with respect to its preindustrial strength for 60 model years. Similar to prior studies, we find that Northern Hemisphere precipitation decreases in response to a weakened AMOC. However, we also find that the frequency of wet days increases in some regions. By computing the atmospheric moisture budget, we find that intensified but drier storms cause less precipitation over land. Nevertheless, changes in the jet stream tend to enhance precipitation over northwestern Europe. We further investigate the association of precipitation anomalies with large-scale atmospheric circulations by computing weather regimes through clustering of geopotential height daily anomalies. We find an increase in the frequency of the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO+), which is associated with an increase in the occurrence of wet days over northern Europe and drier conditions over southern Europe. Since a ~ 57% reduction in the AMOC strength is within the inter-model range of projected AMOC declines by the end of the twenty-first century, our results have implications for understanding the role of AMOC in future hydrological changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It has been demonstrated that decadal variations in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) can be predicted by current forecast models. While Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) in sea surface temperatures (SSTs) has been hypothesised as the source of this skill, the validity of this hypothesis and the pathways involved remain unclear. We show, using reanalysis and data from two forecast models, that the decadal predictability of the NAO can be entirely accounted for by the predictability of decadal variations in the speed of the North Atlantic eddy-driven jet, with no predictability of decadal variations in the jet latitude. The sub-polar North Atlantic (SPNA) is identified as the only obvious common source of an SST-based signal across the models and reanalysis, and the predictability of the jet speed is shown to be consistent with a forcing from the SPNA visible already within a single season. The pathway is argued to be tropospheric in nature, with the SPNA-associated heating extending up to the mid-troposphere, which alters the meridional temperature gradient around the climatological jet core. The relative roles of anthropogenic aerosol emissions and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) at generating predictable SPNA variability are also discussed. The analysis is extensively supported by the novel use of a set of seasonal hindcasts spanning the 20th century and forced with prescribed SSTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Together with rapid Arctic warming and sea ice decline, especially over the Barents–Kara seas (BKS), extreme cold winters have occurred frequently in mid-latitudes, particularly in Central Eurasia. A pattern with two distinct winter temperature anomalies centered over the BKS and Central Eurasia is known as the Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasia (WACE) pattern. The impacts of sea ice loss over the BKS and internal atmospheric variability on past WACE formation remain under discussion mainly due to the large internal atmospheric variability in the mid-latitudes. This study analyzed a large-ensemble historical experiment prescribing observed sea ice condition to investigate the role of internal atmospheric variability in the observed interannual variation of the WACE pattern. Comparison of ensemble members suggests that internal atmospheric variability is important for regulating the magnitude of the WACE pattern. Besides the strong effect of local sea ice loss, winter temperature over the BKS increases due to warm advection driven by the Ural blocking and positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation. A decrease in winter temperature over Central Eurasia is mainly attributable to the cold advection enhanced by Ural blocking rather than the remote effect of sea ice decline over the BKS. Our study reveals the importance of internal atmospheric variability in elucidating the observed interannual variation of the WACE pattern. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Quantitative estimates are obtained for regional features of the frequency distribution of extreme temperature, precipitation, and wind anomalies in the winter months in the Northern Hemisphere extratropical zone, associated with atmospheric circulation regimes (henceforth regimes) in the Euro-Atlantic sector. Using k-means cluster analysis for the daily geopotential height fields from the ERA5 reanalysis for 1979–2021, four most characteristic winter atmospheric circulation regimes are identified in the Euro-Atlantic sector corresponding to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the positive (NAO+) and negative (NAO−) phases, Scandinavian blocking (SCAND), and the regime with anomalously high pressure over the North Atlantic and low pressure over Europe (ATL). Trends in the frequency of occurrence and in structures of regimes are analyzed. The NAO+ and NAO− regimes turned out to be asymmetrical in spatial structure with significantly different frequencies of occurrence (33% and 19%, respectively). The associated extreme weather anomaly fields are also asymmetric. For all regimes, an asymmetric response in the frequency of occurrence of positive and negative temperature anomalies is noted. Over the period under study, no statistically significant trends are found in the seasonal average frequency of occurrence of the regimes, or in the seasonal average fields of the regimes in the region of the geopotential height anomaly extremes, probably indicating the stability of these regimes under recent climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the spatial patterns of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is vital for climate science. For this reason, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is commonly applied to sea-level pressure (SLP) anomaly data in the North Atlantic region. This study evaluated the traditional EOF-based definition of the NAO index against the autoencoder (AE) neural network-based definition, using the Hurrell NAO Index (Station-Based) as a reference. Specifically, EOF and AE were applied to monthly SLP anomaly data from ERA5 (1950–2022) to derive spatial modes of variability in the North Atlantic region. Both methods produced spatial patterns consistent with the traditional NAO definition, with dipole centers of action between the Icelandic Low and the Azores High. During boreal winter (December to March), when the NAO is most active, the AE-based method achieved a correlation of 0.96 with the reference NAO index, outperforming the EOF-based method’s correlation of 0.90. The all-season Adjusted R-squared values were 50% for the AE-based index and 34% for the EOF-based index. Notably, the AE-based index revealed several other non-linear patterns of the NAO, with more than one encoded pattern correlating at least 0.90 with the reference NAO index during boreal winter. These results not only demonstrate the AE’s superiority over traditional EOF in representing the station-based index but also uncover previously unexplored complexities in the NAO that are close to the reference temporal pattern. This suggests that AE offers a promising approach for defining climate modes of variability, potentially capturing intricacies that traditional linear methods like EOF might miss.

Abstract The three leading modes of the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation explain about 70% of the winter climate variability. Although climate models generally can capture these modes, biases may induce large uncertainties in regional climate predictions. Here, we evaluate the leading winter modes simulated by CMIP5‐PMIP3 and CMIP6‐PMIP4 models from the last millennium to future scenarios in comparison with historical reanalysis and paleo‐reconstructions. The models generally have a good representation of the average spatial pattern of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) while showing a larger spread in performance for the East Atlantic and Scandinavian patterns. In contrast to historical reanalysis, the simulated NAO pattern tends to be rather stationary under various climate states over the years 861–2100. Such underestimated spatial variability in the simulated NAO is directly related to the biased spatial shifts in NAO‐related regional temperature and precipitation changes, inducing uncertainties in climate projections over the North Atlantic sector.

IntroductionAstarte borealis holds great potential as an archive of seasonal paleoclimate, especially due to its long lifespan (several decades to more than a century) and ubiquitous distribution across high northern latitudes. Furthermore, recent work demonstrates that the isotope geochemistry of the aragonite shell is a faithful proxy of environmental conditions. However, the exceedingly slow growth rates of A. borealis in some locations (

Abstract East Africa is highly vulnerable to extreme weather events, such as droughts and floods. Skillful seasonal forecasts exist for the October–November–December short rains, enabling informed decisions, whereas seasonal forecasts for the March–April–May (MAM) long rains have historically had low skill, limiting preparation capacity. Therefore, improved long rains prediction is a high priority and would contribute to climate change resilience in the region. Recent work has highlighted how lower‐troposphere Congo zonal winds in MAM strongly impact regional moisture fluxes and the long rains total precipitation. We therefore approach long rains predictability through the predictability of the Congo winds. We analyze a set of hindcasts from a dynamical prediction system that is able to reproduce the long rains—Congo winds relationship in its individual ensemble members. Encouragingly, in observations, the strength of MAM Congo zonal winds and East Africa rainfall show substantial correlation with the MAM Atlantic (including North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) and Indo‐Pacific variability, suggestive of ocean influence and potential predictability. However, these features are replaced by different teleconnections in the hindcast ensemble mean fields. This is also true for NAO linkage to Congo winds, despite correct representation in individual members, and good skill in hindcasting the NAO itself. The net effect is strongly negative skill for the Congo winds. We explore statistical correction methods, including using the Congo zonal wind as an anchor index in a signal‐to‐noise calibration for the long rains. This is considered a demonstration of concept, for subsequent implementation using models with better Congo zonal wind skill. Indeed, the clear signals found in the Atlantic (including Mediterranean) and Indo‐Pacific, studied here both in observations and a dynamical prediction system, motivate evaluation of these features across other prediction systems, and offer the prospect of improved physically‐informed long rains dynamical predictions.

The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) exhibits remarkable non-stationarity on subseasonal timescales, severely limiting climate predictability. Here, based on observational and reanalysis datasets, we identify a robust subseasonal variability in the EAWM response to ENSO, with a notable synchronous break in mid-January lasting about 10 days. We suggest that this breakdown is largely caused by interference from the abrupt phase reversal of the ENSO-driven North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which occurs about a week earlier in early January. During El Niño years, the NAO phase transition from positive to negative triggers a rapid change in the mid-latitude atmospheric circulation via the quasi-stationary Rossby wave adjustment. This results in the strengthening of the Siberian high, which produces strong northerly wind anomalies over East Asia, while the anomalous western North Pacific anticyclone weakens and shrinks to the south, eventually leading to the collapse of the teleconnection. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The premonsoon circulation over South Asia in May shows remarkable interannual variations, and it can modulate the onset of the Asian summer monsoon. The present study derives two dominant stratosphere–troposphere modes over the North Atlantic in April via applying principal component (PC) analysis to regional geopotential height during 1979–2015. Both of the modes reflect the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like circulation at the midtroposphere, but the circulation patterns and planetary wave activity between the two modes are quite different. The first mode represents a stratosphere–troposphere-coupled mode. Further analysis indicates that during the years with a positive phase of the first mode, the low-level anomalous southerlies over the northern Barents Sea (BS) lead to a reduction in local sea ice, which could persist into May through the ice-albedo feedback. The BS sea ice anomalies in May could generate a southeastward propagating Rossby wave train, producing an anomalous anticyclonic circulation to the west of Qinghai–Tibet Plateau. This anomalous anticyclone induces increases in local air temperature and the meridional temperature gradient, resulting in a strengthened premonsoon circulation. Given that prediction of the premonsoon circulation over South Asia remains a challenging issue, the stratosphere–troposphere-coupling modes in April provide another potential predictability source. On the other hand, ENSO has a significant effect on the South Asian premonsoon circulations in May, and can also lead to the NAO-like circulation by influencing atmospheric Rossby waves. Such an NAO-like circulation is closely related to the second mode. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To analyze links among key processes that contribute to Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections we apply causal discovery based on graphical models known as causal graphs. First, we calculate the causal dependencies from observations during 1980–2021. Observations show several robust connections from early to late winter, such as atmospheric blocking within central Asia via the Ural blocking and Siberian High, the North Atlantic Oscillation phase and the polar vortex (PV). The PV is affected by poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa, which is also directly connected with the Aleutian Low. We then evaluate climate models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) by comparing their causal graphs with those derived from observations. Compared to observations, CMIP6 historical and future simulations do not robustly capture Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections arising from Arctic sea ice variability. This highlights the role of atmospheric internal variability in modulating the Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections. However, we find several distinct patterns that are simulated by most of the analyzed climate models. For example, both historical and future model simulations robustly capture observed atmospheric blocking in central Asia. But contrary to observations, model simulations show a robust link between the Arctic temperature and sea ice cover over Barents and Kara seas. The analysis of future changes also reveals that the connection between the Aleutian Low and the poleward eddy heat flux at 100 hPa is expected to become more robust toward the end of the 21st century than in the analyzed past. Plain Language Summary: The role of different mechanisms that link amplified Arctic warming and changes in midlatitude weather remains an open question. Observations and model simulations lead to different conclusions, making interpreting Arctic‐midlatitude connections difficult. To improve the understanding of these processes, this study uses a novel method that goes beyond simple correlation analysis, known as causal discovery. The application of causal discovery in combination with physical reasoning provides a powerful tool to evaluate the performance of climate models and better understand the mechanisms of analyzed teleconnections. Causal discovery detects cause–effect relationships from analyzed data using graphical models known as causal graphs. As a first step, we calculate causal graphs for observations. Then we compare the causal graphs from observations with historical simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). This comparison shows if the CMIP6 models reproduce the observed connections in the current climate. We also estimate future changes in Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections toward the end of the century by comparing causal graphs from the CMIP6 historical and Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) simulations. This study demonstrates that the observations and CMIP6 model simulations do not robustly show Arctic‐midlatitude links that arise from Arctic sea ice variability. Key Points: The robustness of Arctic‐midlatitude teleconnections is evaluated by applying causal discovery to observations and CMIP6 simulationsObservations, CMIP6 historical and SSP5‐8.5 simulations do not robustly show Arctic‐midlatitude links arising from sea ice variabilityCMIP6 SSP5‐8.5 simulations predict a more robust link between poleward eddy heat flux and Aleutian Low toward the end of the 21st century [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous studies have shown that both the stratospheric Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño‐South Oscillation (ENSO) can influence the North Atlantic winter circulation. Here we use reanalysis and model output data to show that the QBO and ENSO interact to produce a nonlinear effect on the North Atlantic winter circulation. Specifically, during El Niño winters, the QBO teleconnection mainly takes a subtropical pathway with changes in the North Pacific–Atlantic subtropical jet (STJ); during La Niña winters, the QBO connects with the troposphere predominantly through a polar pathway, that is, stratospheric polar vortex (SPV) changes. Further, the QBO‐induced STJ changes in El Niño lead to anomalous Rossby wave propagation toward the North Atlantic, and the QBO‐induced SPV during La Niña anomaly exerts a downward effect on the North Atlantic. Hence, the various interactions between ENSO and QBO teleconnections result in nonlinear, and even synergistic, impacts on the North Atlantic circulation. Plain Language Summary: The Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and the El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are the dominate modes of climate variability in the tropical stratosphere and troposphere, respectively, on interannual time scales. This study discusses the interactions between the two phenomena and their effects on the North Atlantic winter atmospheric circulation. We find that the QBO and ENSO have a nonlinear combined effect on North Atlantic surface pressure anomalies. This nonlinear effect arises because different pathways are preferred for different combinations of QBO and ENSO. Specifically, the QBO appears to link to the troposphere mainly through a subtropical pathway during El Niño winters while a polar pathway during La Niña winters. Our study provides new insights into the complex interactions between the QBO and ENSO. These findings could potentially help to improve winter climate predictions for North Atlantic coastal regions. Key Points: The co‐occurrence of Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation (QBO) westerly phase and El Niño in winter is linked to a negative East Atlantic pattern‐like anomalyThe positive NAO‐like anomaly in QBO westerly/La Niña is twice as strong as would be expected if linearity is naively assumedThe QBO extratropical teleconnections present mainly a subtropical and a polar pathway during El Niño and La Niña winters, respectively [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The atmospheric circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss may differ depending on the region of sea ice loss but also on the methodology used to study this impact. Examining the different possible atmospheric circulation responses to sea ice loss is essential, as the Arctic sea ice is not melting uniformly. In this study, we examine the atmospheric response in winter to regional sea ice loss using two different approaches across seven climate models. The sea ice anomaly areas are the pan-Arctic, the Barents-Kara Seas only, and the Sea of Okhotsk only. The first approach involves sensitivity experiments performed within the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project (PAMIP), while the second approach entails a composite analysis in long pre-industrial control simulations from CMIP6. Our results reveal that both approaches lead to consistent atmospheric circulation responses to pan-Arctic sea ice loss, characterized by a negative phase in the North Atlantic Oscillation and a weakening of the stratospheric polar vortex. Similar responses to BK sea ice loss are simulated, albeit with more spread in the PAMIP experiments. The responses to Okhotsk sea ice loss differ and are uncertain in both approaches. Furthermore, larger changes are detected in the composite analysis than in the sensitivity experiments, likely due to a different background state and the presence of confounding factors in the composite analysis. We also find that the atmosphere-ocean coupling does not imply larger circulation changes or a better representation of the eddy momentum feedback in the climate response. These results highlight that sea ice loss in sensitivity experiments yields a weaker atmospheric circulation response compared to the pre-industrial simulations in CMIP6 where the sea ice loss is governed by internal climate variability. A quantification of the role played by factors related to sea ice loss that amplifies the response should be further investigated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a statistical analysis of historical and projected values of the annual, seasonal, and supra-seasonal precipitation concentration index (PCI) was conducted for different stations in the Cheliff watershed. Statistical methods such as breakpoint and trend analysis using Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests were used for the PCI values of annual, monthly, and supra-seasonal precipitation data between 1950 and 2014. The PCI values varied between 14.24% and 24.86% annually, between 10.75% and 18.74% seasonally, and between 11.23% and 26.98% supra-seasonally. According to the Pettitt and Mann–Kendall tests, there was an insignificant change in precipitation distribution during the study period. Spatial analysis using the inverse distance weighting (IDW) method confirmed the minor variability in precipitation distribution in the study area. The Pearson correlation coefficient between oscillation indices and PCI values at different scales showed significant values with the Mediterranean Oscillation index (MOi), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and Western Mediterranean Oscillation index (WeMOi), highlighting their potential influence on annual PCI values. For the climate projection scenarios, projected PCI values align with historical PCI values. Application of Pettitt and Mann-Kendall tests to the projected PCI series shows that there will not be a significant change in future precipitation distribution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As the understanding of decadal variability in climate systems deepens, there is a growing interest in investigating the decadal variability of seasonal-mean or monthly mean variables. This study aims to understand the seasonality observed in the amplitude of decadal variability. To accomplish this, we analyze the decadal variability of the monthly mean North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) index and North Pacific index (NPI) over the past decades using two different calculating processes: the full smoothing (F) process and the seasonal-specific (SS) process. Our findings suggest that the F process only captures the decadal variability of annual-mean variables, whereas the SS process is suited for capturing the seasonality of decadal variability. We find that the seasonality in decadal variability aligns with the seasonality in interannual variability. Additionally, we explore the seasonality in decadal variability in atmospheric and oceanic variables. The seasonality in oceanic decadal variability, including sea surface temperature and salinity, is found to be weak and small. The amplitude of decadal variability in the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO) is similar across different months, indicating weak seasonality in the PDO. On the other hand, decadal variability of lower-tropospheric atmospheric circulation, including horizontal wind, geopotential height, and surface air temperature, exhibits significant seasonality in the extratropics, with the strongest decadal variability occurring in winter. Moreover, the significant seasonality in decadal variability of precipitation is observed in the tropics, with the strongest decadal variability occurring in summer. Our study provides insights into understanding the seasonality of decadal variability, which can aid in the improvement of decadal prediction of climate variability. Significance Statement: The amplitude of decadal variability of seasonal-mean or monthly mean variables exhibits seasonality. Our results show that the seasonality in decadal variability is consistent with the seasonality in interannual variability. We also identified that the seasonality in oceanic decadal variability is weak and smaller than that in atmospheric decadal variability. Decadal variability of lower-tropospheric atmospheric circulation exhibits significant seasonality in the extratropics, with the strongest decadal variability occurring in winter. However, the significant seasonality in decadal variability of precipitation occurs in the tropics, with the strongest decadal variability occurring in summer. Our study provides insights into the seasonality of decadal variability in climate systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding the unevenness of precipitation distribution within a year is important for water resources management and agricultural production. In this study, spatiotemporal variations of precipitation unevenness in the Yangtze River basin (YRB) during 1961–2020 and its main influencing factors are investigated by the relative entropy (RE) and rotated empirical orthogonal function. The timings of different percentiles of annual total precipitation show that the temporal distribution of precipitation in the YRB is uneven. The unevenness of precipitation distribution exhibits a large spatial variability with a high‐value centre in the northeast and a low value centre in the northwest of the YRB, and an upward trend in almost the entire YRB. Precipitation becomes more uneven with the decrease of annual number of wet days and low‐intensity precipitation amount and the increase of high‐intensity precipitation amount during the study period. Precipitation unevenness of different regions is modulated by the different combinations of different seasonal climate indices with specific time lags. For example, in the south‐central YRB, precipitation unevenness generally tends to be enhanced by the positive Tropical Northern Atlantic Index in current summer and sea surface temperature anomalies over South China Sea (SCS) in previous summer, and negative North Atlantic Oscillation in current winter, while in the northeast YRB, be weakened by negative Quasi‐Biennial Oscillation in current spring, Atlantic Meridional Mode in current summer and positive SCS in current autumn. Besides, the identified significant climate indices can partly explain the temporal changes of precipitation unevenness, and their explanatory ability is more powerful in the south‐central, southeast and northwest YRB than in the north‐central and northeast YRB, which reveals a strong negative correlation with the degree of precipitation unevenness. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, the role of eddy feedback in the formation and excitation of stream function anomaly pattern over Eurasian atmosphere (SFA) during 2021/2022 December–February (DJF) season is examined in terms of a low‐order linear model with a synoptic eddy and low frequency (SELF) feedback empirical closure onto the empirical orthogonal function decomposition bases (EOF‐bases). The results show that the SFA can be produced roughly and the SELF feedback plays important role in shaping the SFA during 2021/2022 DJF over Eurasian atmosphere. The SFA can be produced roughly owing to the internal action of the linear dynamical system. However, the importance of the external forcing on the formation of SFA depends on the role of the eddy feedback to a different degree. For the North Atlantic oscillation (NAO)‐like pattern with the wave train at high latitudes, the external forcing in the tropical Atlantic contributes greater with eddy feedback. While for the wave train at lower latitudes, the forcing will have little influence with the increase of the SELF feedback. A set of experiments with isolated forcing show that the forcing over tropical Atlantic Ocean can induce the wave train patterns alike the SFA, but the forcing to the east over South Asian to western Indian Ocean also contributes for shaping the SFA, especially the anomalous cyclone over Tibetan Plateau (TP). The combined effects of the response to both the tropical Atlantic Ocean and the eastern forcing over South Asian to western Indian Ocean contributes much to the formation of the two wave trains over Eurasia, thereby a negative stream function centre over TP, which might be the main cause for the excessive DJF rainfall over South China during 2021/2022. The diagnosis of the role of synoptic eddy on the atmospheric response to the external forcing for specific events can be helpful for understanding the causes for the formation of extreme climate events deeply. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summer cooling is one of the most direct consequences of explosive volcanic eruptions that can affect ecosystems and human societies. Recent studies revealed a multiyear cooling impact on hemispheric and global summer temperatures after tropical eruptions, yet the volcanic responses appear to vary on regional scales. Here, we revisit volcano-induced summer cooling in eastern Canada and northern and central Europe by applying superposed epoch analysis on CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations and millennial temperature reconstructions based on tree-ring density. We then examine potential causes modulating region-specific volcanic impact. While confirming that, on average, tropical eruptions over the last millennium have induced a longer cooling (>4 yr) than eruptions from extratropical Northern Hemisphere in all three North Atlantic regions, we show that the peak magnitude of cooling is stronger in eastern Canada. We also find that the detected volcanic temperature anomalies can be strongly affected by the selection and number of volcanic events and nonvolcanic signals embedded in the climate time series. This study highlights the risks of using highly noisy proxy records to investigate volcanic impacts, especially in regions with strong unforced climate variability. The CMIP6-PMIP4 simulations generally agree with the three reconstructions on the average response to tropical eruptions, but their performance is poorer regarding the production of significant cooling after extratropical eruptions. Our results further suggest that the particular sensitivity to tropical eruptions in eastern Canada is likely related to increased sea ice surrounding Quebec–Labrador associated with the positive Arctic Oscillation and North Atlantic Oscillation formed during the first posteruption winter. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in extreme temperatures have more effects on ecosystems and human society than changes in climate averages. As a hotspot of global warming, the Arctic has experienced unprecedented heatwaves recently, which highlights the importance of identifying long-term variations of extreme temperatures. However, spatial unbalance of observations and artificially chosen investigation periods limit our knowledge of extreme temperatures over the Arctic lands. Here, we build a complete and quality-controlled observation network on surface temperature over the Arctic lands and combine in situ and reanalysis data to evaluate changes of extreme temperatures during the period 1979–2020. Our results indicate that 1) the increase in extreme temperatures has accelerated since the 2000s, especially on the coast of Eurasia; 2) the change magnitude for cold events is larger than for warm events, in terms of intensity, frequency, and duration; and 3) increases in warm events only occur locally, for example, Alaska and central Siberia, while decreases in cold events occur throughout the Arctic lands. The long-term trends of extreme temperatures are synchronous with sea ice loss, and patterns of interannual variations are mainly related to the North Atlantic Oscillation. We suggest further efforts toward improvement over North America, especially for Greenland, through sufficient observations and regional models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study identified a prominent temporal seesaw haze intensity case that occurred between the late winter months of 2010 in the North China Plain (NCP), featuring considerably suppressed haze intensity in January and enhanced haze intensity in the adjacent month of February in 2011. We suggest that dramatic alternations of atmospheric and oceanic anomalies played fundamental roles in forming this seesaw haze intensity case, rather than changes in manmade emission anomalies. The suppressed haze intensity in January 2011 was tied to an equivalent barotropic cyclonic anomaly that dominated the NCP and its surroundings, which generated in situ haze‐suppressed meteorology characterized by strengthened lower‐level northerly anomalies with cold and dry conditions, as well as elevated boundary layer height and destabilized atmospheric stratification. In stark contrast, the enhanced haze intensity in February 2011 was connected to an equivalent barotropic anticyclonic anomaly, linking a haze‐favourable meteorology opposite to that in January 2011. The pronounced North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) tripole anomalies, with positive anomalies in the tropical and mid‐latitudinal North Atlantic and negative anomalies in the subtropical North Atlantic, made a significant contribution to the above‐mentioned seesaw haze intensity case. Diagnostic analyses suggested that the January North Atlantic SST tripole anomalies were linked to a significant negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)‐like pattern, which acted as the source of the Rossby wave train to generate concurrent haze‐suppressed meteorology over the NCP. In February, although the NAO‐like pattern was drastically dampened, the enhanced barotropic cyclonic anomaly centred southeast of the Yamal Peninsula played a critical role in relaying the impact of January tripole SST anomalies, thus inducing concurrent haze‐favourable meteorology. Consequently, January North Atlantic SST tripole anomalies could exert an effective modulation effect on the generation of seesaw haze intensity. The proposed mechanism was further verified using the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Numerical Simulation (CESM‐LENS) datasets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study develops a skill evaluation metric for an individual forecast by applying a Taylor expansion to the commonly-used temporal correlation skill. In contrast to other individual forecast evaluation metrics, which depend on the amplitude of forecasted and observed anomalies, the so-called "association strength (AS) skill" is less affected by the anomaly amplitude and mainly depends on the degree of similarity between the forecasted and the observed values. Based on this newly developed index, the forecast skill is evaluated for an individual case, then, a group is categorized with respect to the AS skill. The cases with the highest AS skill exhibit the highest correlation skill than any group randomly selected, indicating that the AS skill is a powerful metric to evaluate the non-dimensionalized forecast skill. This strategy is adopted for the subseasonal East Asian summer precipitation forecasts produced by the UK Met Office's ensemble Global Seasonal forecast system version 5 (GloSea5). In the group with the highest AS skill of the East Asian summer precipitation index (i.e., highest AS cases), the geopotential height anomalies showed quasi-stationary Rossby waves from the North Atlantic to East Asia. The spatial distribution of the dominant subseasonal anomalies for cases with the highest AS is distinct from the cases or groups with the lowest AS skill. Furthermore, the dominant pattern with the highest AS is not solely explained by any well-known typical subseasonal climate patterns, such as the Madden–Julian Oscillation, circumglobal teleconnection pattern, Pacific-Japan pattern, or the Summer North Atlantic Oscillation. This implies that the excitation of well-known climate patterns only partly contributes to increasing the mid-latitude climate predictability in the GloSea5. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The validity of the long-held understanding or assumption that El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) has a remote influence on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in the January–February–March (JFM) months has been questioned recently. We examine this claim further using atmospheric data filtered to separate the variability orthogonal and parallel to NAO. This decomposition of the atmospheric fields is based on the Principal Component/Empirical Orthogonal Function method whereby the leading mode of the sea-level pressure in the North Atlantic sector is recognised as the NAO, while the remaining variability is orthogonal (unrelated) to NAO. Composite analyses indicate that ENSO has statistically significant links with both the non-NAO and NAO variability at various atmospheric levels. Additional bootstrap tests carried out to quantify the uncertainty and statistical significance confirm these relationships. Consistent with previous studies, we find that an ENSO teleconnection in the NAO-related variability is characterised by lower-stratospheric eddy heat flux anomalies (related to the vertical propagation of planetary waves) which appear in November–December and strengthen through JFM. Under El Niño (La Niña), there is constructive (destructive) interference of anomalous eddy heat flux with the climatological pattern, enhancing (reducing) fluxes over the northern Pacific and Barents Sea areas. We further show that the teleconnection of extreme El Niño is essentially a non-NAO phenomenon. Some non-linearity of the teleconnections is suggested, with El Niño including more NAO-related variability than La Niña, but the statistical significance is degraded due to weaker signals and smaller sample sizes after the partitioning. Our findings have implications for the general understanding of the nature of ENSO teleconnections over the North Atlantic, as well as for refining methods to characterise and evaluate them in models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The influence of the climate signal variability on warm spell characteristics is examined using observed daily temperature data from meteorological stations during the cold season (November to March) from 1961 to 2019 over Iran. Warm spells are classified by characteristics such as frequency, number, duration and intensity. Analysis shows the statistically significant positive correlation between Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Atlantic Meridional Mode (AMM) and negative correlation between North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and warm spell characteristics. However, partial correlation analysis used to extract respective influence of climate signals showed a significant negative correlation only with NAO. This study found that NAO influences on the number and frequency of warm spells in western part of Iran. The higher temperature during negative phase of NAO linked to the enhanced cyclonic circulation and associated with westerly to southwesterly airflows which provides warm air advection over Iran during weaker than normal subtropical high. In a positive NAO, anomalously negative geopotential height is centred over the Iceland and anomalously positive geopotential height is located across subtropical Atlantic Ocean and Europe. Elongated area of subtropical high can influence Arabian Peninsula and Iran. In this regard, the cold temperature over the western part of Iran during positive phase of NAO is linked to the enhanced northerly and northwesterly cold air stream over Eastern Europe which influence north of Middle East as well as Iran. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report describes an increase in the number and intensity of marine heatwaves (MHWs) and a decrease in marine cold spells (MCSs) in the global ocean. However, these reported changes are not uniform on a regional to local basis, and it remains unknown if coastal areas follow the open-ocean trends. Surface ocean temperature measurements collected by satellites (from 1982–2022) and 13 coastal buoys (from 1990–2022) are analyzed in the northeastern Atlantic and three subregions: the English Channel, Bay of Brest and Bay of Biscay. The activity metric, combining the number of events, intensity, duration and spatial extent, is used to evaluate the magnitude of these extreme events. The results from in situ and satellite datasets for each of the studied regions are quite in agreement, although the satellite dataset underestimates the amplitude of activity for both MHWs and MCSs. This supports the applicability of the method to both in situ and satellite data, albeit with caution on the amplitude of these events. Also, this localized study in European coastal northeastern Atlantic water highlights that similar changes are being seen in coastal and open oceans regarding extreme events of temperature, with MHWs being more frequent and longer and extending over larger areas, while the opposite is seen for MCSs. These trends can be explained by changes in both the mean of and variance in sea-surface temperature. In addition, the pace of evolution and dynamics of marine extreme events differ among the subregions. Among the three studied subregions, the English Channel is the region experiencing the strongest increase in summer MHW activity over the last 4 decades. Summer MHWs were very active in the English Channel in 2022 due to long events, in the Bay of Biscay in 2018 due to intense events and in the Bay of Brest in 2017 due to a high occurrence of events. Winter MCSs were the largest in 1987 and 1986 due to long and intense events in the English Channel. Finally, our findings suggest that at an interannual timescale, the positive North Atlantic Oscillation favors the generation of strong summer MHWs in the northeastern Atlantic, while low-pressure conditions over northern Europe and a high off the Iberian Peninsula in winter dominate for MCSs. A preliminary analysis of air–sea heat fluxes suggests that, in this region, reduced cloud coverage is a key parameter for the generation of summer MHWs, while strong winds and increased cloud coverage are important for the generation of winter MCSs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to its involvement in numerous feedbacks, sea ice plays a crucial role not only for polar climate but also at global scale. We analyse state-of-the-art observed, reconstructed, and modelled sea-ice concentration (SIC) together with sea surface temperature (SST) to disentangle the influence of different forcing factors on the variability of these coupled fields. Canonical Correlation Analysis provides distinct pairs of coupled Arctic SIC–Atlantic SST variability which are linked to prominent oceanic and atmospheric modes of variability over the period 1854–2017. The first pair captures the behaviour of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) while the third and can be associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) in a physically consistent manner. The dominant global SIC–Atlantic SST coupled mode highlights the contrast between the responses of Arctic and Antarctic sea ice to changes in AMOC over the 1959–2021 period. Model results indicate that coupled SST–SIC patterns can be associated with changes in ocean circulation. We conclude that a correct representation of AMOC-induced coupled SST–SIC variability in climate models is essential to understand the past, present and future sea-ice evolution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revealed a physical connection between the antiphase variation in the preceding autumn Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Lake Baikal snow cover anomalies (TBSA) and the following winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) on interannual time scales during 1979–2021. The antiphase variation in TBSA, accounting for 44% of the total years, has a dipole structure in autumn, which prolonged into the following winter. The persistent antiphase TBSA associated diabatic forcing, disturbances and transient eddies favor a double wave train structure spanning the TP (east of Baikal) and North Atlantic from autumn to winter. Amid the wave train, the circulation anomalies over the North Atlantic extract more energy from the basic flow due to the seasonal increase in the westerly jet, which further evolves into the winter NAO pattern. Our results provide new insights into the formation and projection of winter NAO from the perspective of subtropical and extratropical Eurasia snow. Plain Language Summary: A robust link exists in the preceding autumn antiphase Tibetan Plateau (TP) and Lake Baikal snow cover anomalies (TBSA) and the winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) during 1979–2021. There are 44% years of antiphase variation in TBSA in autumn, which shows a dipole structure with one positive center over the TP and another negative center over the Baikal. Larger (smaller) snow cover over the TP (Baikal) stimulates a local low (high) pressure system via diabatic cooling (heating). Due to the jet waveguide effect, the antiphase TBSA associated diabatic forcing and perturbation along the subtropical westerly jet favor the atmospheric wave train spanning the TP and North Atlantic. The antiphase TBSA associated transient eddies along the extratropical belt contribute to the atmospheric wave train lying between the eastern Baikal and the North Atlantic owing to the eddy‐flow interaction. Along with the seasonal increase in the subtropical westerly jet from autumn to winter, the geopotential height anomalies in the double wave train associated with the antiphase TBSA gradually develop into the winter large‐scale NAO circulation through more energy extraction from the stronger basic flow. Key Points: A robust link of winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) to the preceding fall antiphase Tibetan Plateau‐Baikal snow cover anomalies (TBSA)The antiphase TBSA associated diabatic forcing, disturbances and transient eddies favor a double wave train structure around 30°N and 60°NMore energy extracts over the North Atlantic due to the seasonal increase in the westerly jet, favoring the development of the winter NAO [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has contributed to the recent multidecadal trends observed in European climate, especially to trends in winter precipitation over Northern Europe. However, the current generation of coupled climate models struggle to reproduce the NAO's contribution to multidecadal trends, which has important implications for deriving constraints based on the comparison of observed and modeled trends. An observational constraint based on attribution results, both with and without the contribution of variability associated with the NAO, is applied to projections of Northern European precipitation and temperature, and observed NAO variability is shown to lead to a constraint that overestimates future forced changes. Only after removing the NAO variability is the observed climate change consistent with model simulations, and a tighter, unbiased observational constraint based on the forced signal (without the NAO) can be applied to future projections. Plain Language Summary: The observed precipitation and temperature across Northern Europe in winter has been increasing over the past several decades. However, the magnitude of this trend is generally not well reproduced by the latest set of global climate models. A part of the observed increase in precipitation can be related to the variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), which is a large‐scale pattern of sea level pressure in the North Atlantic region that varies in strength each season and year, and is strongly linked to temperature and precipitation patterns across Europe, particularly in winter. In this study, we show that if the variability related to the NAO is first removed from the precipitation time series, from both the observations and the model simulations, the difference between the long‐term observed and modeled trends in precipitation is reduced. Removing the NAO variability also has an impact on the difference in observed and modeled trends in temperature. This has important implications for approaches that use the difference in observations and model simulations as a way of constraining future projections of climate change. Key Points: Variability in the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has contributed to the recent multidecadal trends observed in European climateThe suite of current comprehensive global models (CMIP6) struggle to reproduce the NAO's contribution to multidecadal trendsRemoving the NAO from both observations and models provides a tighter, unbiased constraint, which can then be applied to model projections [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Föhn and katabatic winds (downslope winds) can increase ice sheet surface melt, run‐off, and ice‐shelf vulnerability to hydrofracture and are poorly constrained on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GIS and AIS). We use regional climate model simulations of the GIS and AIS to quantify and intercompare trends in downslope winds and associated melt since 1960. Results reveal surface melt associated with downslope wind is significant on both the GIS and AIS representing 27.5 ± 4.5% and 19.7 ± 3.8% of total surface melt respectively. Wind‐associated melt has decreased 31.8 ± 5.3% on the AIS while total melt decreased 15.4 ± 2.4% due to decreased föhn‐induced melt on the Antarctic Peninsula and increasing stratospheric ozone. Wind‐associated melt has increased 10.3 ± 2.5% on the GIS, combining with a more positive North Atlantic Oscillation and warmer surface to increase total melt 34 ± 5.8%. Plain Language Summary: Föhn and katabatic winds (wind that travels downslope) can increase ice sheet surface melt that increases sea levels and ice‐shelf vulnerability. We use regional climate model simulations of the Greenland and Antarctic (GIS and AIS) to identify trends in downslope winds and associated melt since 1960. Results reveal surface melt associated with downslope winds is significant on both the GIS and AIS representing 27.5 ± 4.5% and 19.7 ± 3.8% of total surface melt respectively. Wind‐associated melt has decreased 31.8 ± 5.3% on the AIS while total melt has decreased 15.4 ± 2.4% due to decreased föhn‐induced melt on the Antarctic Peninsula and increasing stratospheric ozone that decreases sunlight at the surface. Wind‐associated melt has increased 10.3 ± 2.5% on the GIS, combining with warmer surface temperatures to increase total melt 34 ± 5.8%. Key Points: Föhn and katabatic winds (downslope winds) and associated surface melt are prominent features on the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheetsSurface melt trends associated with downslope winds have increased on the Greenland ice sheet and decreased on the Antarctic ice sheet [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]