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Early 16th century knowledge of Europe's northern regions was fragmentary and incomplete; reliable observations were few, contemporary written sources were scarce, and maps of the far north were mainly compilations of word-of-mouth knowledge and imprecise ancient geographical descriptions. Enhanced maps resulted from the emerging depiction of an extensive White Sea in mid-16th century. Areas farther east and north were still largely unknown. A debated issue was the existence of the North Pole continent, depicted on many 16th century maps. In the 1590s, new discoveries were made by Dutch explorers, principally through the Barentsz expeditions, searching for a shorter route to Asia, referred to as the Northeast Passage. The article analyses maps made before, during and after the Dutch voyages and illuminates different stages in the development of 16th century knowledge of the European North. Although unsuccessful, the search for the Northeast Passage contributed to an expansion of the known world and more accurate mapping of the far north. The expeditions were the first to depict Spitsbergen and Bear Island on maps and proved that Novaya Zemlya was not part of a North Pole continent. By the end of the century, the image of the European North had been totally reshaped. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, a useful solution is proposed for assessing the safety of the ship's hull damaged by grounding in Northern Sea Route (NSR) or Arctic sea. In particular, the residual ultimate longitudinal strength of grounding damaged ship can be predicted by the grounding damage index (GDI) concept. Due to the global warming effects, the Arctic glaciers have been gradually melting, and it may bring us the new North Pole routes. However, there are uncertainties on many causes that can lead to grounding accident of the commercial vessels. In this regard, residual ultimate longitudinal strength of grounding damaged commercial ship in Arctic sea is investigated. Five (5) temperatures: room temperature (RT), −20°C, −40°C, −60°C and −80°C were adopted to consider the cold temperature effect in NSR. The Panamax class oil tanker was selected for the investigation of residual ultimate longitudinal strength of grounding damaged ship. Fifty (50) reliable damage scenarios were adopted for the evaluation of structural health by utilising Residual strength versus GDI (R-D) diagram method. From this study, a modified R-D diagram is proposed which can consider grounding damage with cold temperature effect. The obtained outcome will be useful for assessing the safety of the grounded ships in Arctic sea region by measuring the grounding damage amount and surrounding air temperature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Republic of Korea (Korea) and the Russian Federation (Russia) are actualizing the cooperation in the Arctic area. As a result, Korean companies have begun to enjoy real economic benefits. However, since there are some troublesome aspects associated with this cooperation, measures that can lead to sustainable development through the supplementation of relevant norms are critical. Russia is also aware of these problems in obtaining economic benefits in the future; cooperation between the two countries should be extended to sufficiently cover this point. The laws related to the region are vague and do not encompass every field. In addition, when it comes to national interests, many situations arise from areas where international and national laws are not clearly harmonized. Therefore, efforts should be made to reflect the interests of both sides and to maintain economic benefits, in case Korea participates in Russia's development of the area, as well as for the legal foundation to reduce negative issues. The Korea-Russia Free Trade Agreement (FTA) negotiation is on the track for the purpose. The two governments should consider various tasks, such as harmonizing with the former FTAs and dealing with the domestic law in accordance with the new FTA. The two countries also have to conduct researches on the efficient use of the FTA and for the 'Sustainable Arctic Development'. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study proposes adaptive forecasting through exponential re-weighting based on the Structural Similarity Index Measure (AFTER-SSIM) algorithm to evaluate the performance of global climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) under different emission scenarios during 2006 to 2018, attempting to reduce the uncertainty among them. The SSIM approach uses a loss function to obtain more information on the spatial distribution between model outputs and observed data, where the genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimise the parameters of both seasonal cycles and long-term trends of sea ice concentration and sea ice thickness. The re-weighting mechanism of the AFTER-SSIM algorithm guarantees a performance improvement in sea ice volume simulations as new information is added. Finally, the ranked models have been combined to estimate the future Arctic sea ice volume and navigation possibility through the Arctic Northern Sea Route. Results show that the proposed algorithm reduces the uncertainty among models, sea ice volume will continue to shrink in the future, and the open periods for 1A super vessels are likely to reach to five months ranging from August to December in 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To increase our capability to predict Arctic sea ice and climate, we have developed a coupled atmosphere‐sea ice‐ocean model configured for the pan‐Arctic with sufficient flexibility. The Los Alamos Sea Ice Model is coupled with the Weather Research and Forecasting Model and the Regional Ocean Modeling System in the Coupled Ocean‐Atmosphere‐Wave‐Sediment Transport modeling system. It is well known that dynamic models used to predict Arctic sea ice at short‐term periods strongly depend on model initial conditions. Parallel Data Assimilation Framework is implemented into the new modeling system to assimilate sea ice observations and generate skillful model initialization, which aid in the prediction procedures. The Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder sea ice concentration, the CyroSat‐2, and Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity sea ice thickness are assimilated with the localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter. We conduct Arctic sea ice prediction for the melting seasons of 2017 and 2018. Predictions with improved initial sea ice conditions show reasonable sea ice evolution and small biases in the minimum sea ice extent, although the ice refreezing is delayed. Our prediction experiments suggest that the use of appropriate uncertainty for the observed sea ice thickness can lead to improved spatial distribution of the initial ice thickness and thus the predicted sea ice distribution. Our new modeling system initialized by the output of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System seasonal forecasts with data assimilation can significantly increase the sea ice prediction skills in sea ice extent for the entire Arctic as well as in the Northern Sea Route compared with the predictions by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System. Plain Language Summary: We have developed a coupled atmosphere‐sea ice‐ocean model configured for the Arctic to enhance our capability to predict Arctic sea ice and climate. It is well known that the accuracy of model initial condition strongly influences Arctic sea ice predictions with dynamic models at short‐term periods. A data assimilation system is combined with the new coupled model to assimilate satellite sea ice observations to improve initial sea ice conditions. We perform Arctic sea ice predictions using the new modeling system for the summers of 2017 and 2018. Predictions show good predictive skills compared with the observations. Our prediction experiments also suggest that the use of appropriate uncertainty in observed sea ice thickness can improve the predicted sea ice spatial pattern. Our new modeling system initialized by the seasonal forecasts of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System and our data assimilation procedures perform much better in predicting Arctic sea ice cover as well as sea ice conditions in the Arctic shipping routes than the National Centers for Environmental Prediction Climate Forecast System. Key Points: A new atmosphere‐sea ice‐ocean regional coupled model is developed for Arctic sea ice predictionsA localized error subspace transform ensemble Kalman filter is implemented to assimilate satellite‐based sea ice concentration and thicknessThe new coupled predictive model shows good skills for seasonal Arctic sea ice predictions [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the field of Arctic shipping, Canada and the Russian Federation have enacted extensive unilateral national regulations cognizant of Article 234, UN Convention on the Law of the Sea. On the global level, both states have been important actors in negotiating the International Maritime Organization's mandatory Polar Code, a legal instrument with implications for regulations at the national level. This article compares and contrasts the approaches, positions, and arguments of Canada and Russia especially regarding national systems to control navigation and vessel-source pollution. The results suggest different emphases stemming from the two states' political and economic realities and capacities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the profitability of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) as a shipping lane from the financial perspective of shipping companies under post 2020 sulphur regulations. Design/methodology/approach: This study develops profit estimation model, and the profitability of the NSR is assessed for a Handymax Medium Range (MR) tanker vessel using scenarios in combination with spot market earning levels, the regulation compliance method and destination ports. The required freight rates are calculated to justify the decision of shipowners to transit a tanker from the Baltic spot market to the NSR navigation. Findings: Results suggest that the required freight rates from the Arctic trade to justify the transit to the NSR are higher than the actual agreed rates in the past, which implies low viability of the NSR as a regular shipping lane. It was also found that the required freight rates are affected by the spot market earning levels, compliance method and duration of the voyage. Research limitations/implications: This study takes a new approach on assessing the NSR viability by comprehensively assessing the annual profitability and including the spot market trade as an opportunity cost for the NSR shipping. Despite various scenarios used in this study, a sensitivity analysis would be useful for future research. Practical implications: This study suggests how much freight rates a shipping company would need to charge if it were to offer tanker shipping services to four major Asian ports while simultaneously operating at the Baltic Sea during the remainder of the year. Originality/value: This study adopts a market-oriented approach by incorporating both earnings and costs (including opportunity costs) in the profitability model rather than merely analyzing the total cost of shipping via the NSR. This study also analyzes impact of IMO 2020 Sulphur regulation on the NSR profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is causing a major ice retreat from the North Pole. From now on, this retreat allows almost permanent movement between East andWest off the coast of the Russian Federation along the Northern Sea Route (NSR). For a long time, navigators have been trying to use this route which significantly reduced the distance between continents. The amount of freight that currently travels on the NSR will inevitably increase in the coming years. To reduce environmental risks, one possible option is not to supply ships with heavy fuel oil. The ships could then be electrically powered and navigate in stages from one port to another along the route to refuel for energy. This electrical energy can be produced on site from renewable energy sources. In this article, a first feasibility analysis is outlined, taking into account the tonnage constraints for navigating on a possible route for the NSR, the cost of energy production and the possible location of several ports of call. Under current economic conditions, the solution would not be profitable as it stands, but should become so at a later stage, which justifies starting to think about a future full electrification of navigation on the NSR, which will also contribute to the economic development of the Russian Federation northernmost regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Main problem for scheduling vessel transit voyages through the Northern Sea Route is the difficulty in predicting distribution of ice boundaries in regions that cannot be overcome by individual ice classes of vessels. Scheduling of voyage is related to speed that vessels can develop and moment of time when vessels will be able to commence and complete passage safely through areas that are main obstacle and are blocking longest transit passage through the Northern Sea Route. This applies to voyages carried out by vessels navigating on their own and with support of icebreakers. Additional problem is lack of consistency of content of maps of ice cover, which can be used for vessels voyage planning through areas where ice cover occurs. Results of this research on influence of uncertain information related with time window of conditions favorable for navigation of vessels of different ice classes on schedule of theirs voyage on example of summer navigation season 2017 are presented in this work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Arctic ice cap is melting. As the ice recedes, shipping lanes are opening that present shorter transport routes across the top of the globe. Industry analysts predict an Arctic shipping boom in coming years. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) implemented a Polar Code (the "Polar Code" or the "Code") to place heightened environmental and safety requirements on ships traversing the Arctic and Antarctic regions. These rules are binding on the United States, and the U.S. Coast Guard published the rulemaking for Polar Ship requirements. However, the rules have multiple shortcomings and loopholes. At the IMO, conversations have begun regarding how a "Polar Code Phase II" could be instituted to help further mitigate risk. Meanwhile, the United States is unprepared for the coming Arctic surge. Although the gateway to these new routes runs through the Bering Sea, largely in U.S.-controlled waters, the nation lacks the ice-capable ships and northern infrastructure to facilitate safe navigation. Conversely, Russia is investing heavily in its Arctic fleet and building the infrastructure to support them. It has implemented restrictions and imposed harsh tariffs on vessels transiting this "Northern Sea Route." While these actions run counter to the U.S. Freedom of Navigation policy (and possibly international law), the United States lacks the Arctic presence to influence its neighbor to ease restrictions on these future shipping lanes. This Note examines how stricter U.S. regulation of Arctic shipping can lead to a greater physical presence and peaceful assertion of American geopolitical will. A Coast Guard-led rulemaking based on the proposals for Polar Code Phase II, which fills the aforementioned gaps in the current regulatory scheme, would provide increased protections for the Arctic environment. This Note predicts how this regulatory effort could set in motion a chain of events with beneficial impacts on trade, the Coast Guard, and American foreign policy goals. New rules could serve as a proof-of-concept for the IMO and incentivize the use of Arctic shipping lanes by lowering assessed risk and reducing insurance costs. The resulting shipping increase should create a natural need for more Coast Guard assets to ensure safe and secure navigation. Finally, this Note will assess how the combined presence of Coast Guard assets and multinational shippers, eager for free navigation, could place pressure on Russia to loosen its restrictions on the Northern Sea Route. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The greatest change resulting from the Arctic thaw is the activation of Arctic resource development and the development of Arctic ports. In this regard, Arctic governance and Arctic regimes arising from climate change, global warming, resource development, Arctic Route, logistics, maritime boundary delimitation, environmental and biodiversity conservation and sustainable development are underway, and the activities of the Arctic Council (AC). Russia is now investing funds in a comprehensive approach to the collection of information on waterways, hydro-meteorology and maps and the strengthening of safety measures for the prevention of oil spills. In light of this, Russia has proceeded with long-term use and development of the Northern Sea Route despite the constraints of the Arctic environment and conditions. It is also calling for government cooperation with business entities in the development of a nuclear-powered icebreaker fleet. In particular, Russia has played the most active role in Arctic development such as resource development and military base construction with a focus on icebreakers. In this context, the main purpose of this article is to examine sustainable Arctic development policies focusing on the characteristics of Arctic policies and the status of Arctic ports and railway and road networks under Vladimir Putin's presidency. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In 1553 the Edward Bonaventure set sail from England with two other ships to search for a Northeast Passage to Asia. Eventually the ship made it to the White Sea and the captain of the ship, Richard Chancellor, reached Moscow where he met Tsar Ivan IV, 'the Terrible', at the Kremlin. In 1554 the ship returned to England but was 'robbed by Flemings', according to Richard Hakluyt. The discovery of a case file in the archives of the Great Council of Malines, the supreme court of the Netherlands in the sixteenth century, concerning the robbing of the Edward Bonaventure on its return voyage offers a new perspective on the spectacular first English expedition which resulted in the discovery of the North Cape and Anglo-Russian trade connections and diplomatic relations. Besides offering new knowledge on England's pioneering voyage of 1553, this article explores possibilities and limitations of case files for historical research and offers a revealing example of political pressure on legal decision-making and shows that legal institutions were not necessarily the puppets of their rulers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Although scientists disagree about the rate at which Arctic ice is melting, climate change will greatly alter the northern latitudes in coming decades if greenhouse gas emissions are not curtailed. Many of the expected changes will be negative; already, permafrost is melting in Siberia, and apartments and factories are sinking into quagmires. The melting of Arctic ice, however, will also open sea-lanes to shipping and allow access to enormous oil and gas reserves beneath the Arctic Ocean. The prospect of increased Arctic commerce brings with it competition among countries and companies for control of the area’s riches, and international competition always carries the possibility of conflict. Three authors, all experts in national security and the Arctic, explore the military, diplomatic, environmental, and economic outlook for the Arctic in 2030: from Russia, Yury Morozov; from Canada, Rob Huebert (2012); and from the United States, George Backus (2012). [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

Despite its remoteness and hostile environmental conditions, the Arctic holds significant shipping lanes, such as the Northern Sea Route (NSR) and the Northwest Passage (NWP). Typically, merchant ships operate along these routes in summer only, when the dominating type of ice is broken ice. A challenge of operating in such ice conditions is that there is no cost- and time-efficient method for predicting the resulting ice resistance, which makes route planning difficult, among others. To address this challenge, we present and analyze two complementary approaches to predict ship resistance in broken ice, of which one is experimental and the other numerical. The experimental approach makes use of a type of non-refrigerated synthetic model ice made of polypropylene, which makes it possible to test how a ship behaves in broken ice using a conventional non-refrigerated towing tank rather than an ice tank. The numerical approach, in turn, is based on the CFD-DEM method and can be used to consider fluid effects, such as the changes in fluid velocity and ship waves, while the ship is moving ahead. Validation calculations against established empirical approaches indicate that both approaches are reasonably accurate. • A combined experimental and numerical approach for predicting ship resistance and propulsion power in broken ice. • Model tests using synthetic model ice which can be carried out in conventional towing tanks. • Validation calculations against the established empirical formulas for broken ice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The navigability of Arctic maritime passages has improved with the rapid retreat of sea ice in recent decades, and it is projected that the Northern Sea Route (NSR) will support further increases in shipping in the future. However, the opening of the NSR may bring potential environmental and climate risks to the Arctic and the rest of the world. This investigation assessed shipping emissions along the NSR and the climate impacts under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C to support coordinated international decision-making. The results show that the magnitude of annual energy consumption of ships along the NSR is 109 kWh under global warming of 2 °C and 3 °C. The environmental impacts of the shipping decrease with fuel transition to clean, carbon-neutral fuel sources. Specifically, the maximum emission is CO 2 (106 t), followed by NO X (104−5 t), CO (103−4 t), SO X (103 t), CH 4 (102−3 t), organic carbon (102−3 t), N 2 O (101−2 t), and black carbon (BC, 101−2 t), in which CO 2 and BC have great difference under high and low loads. Total emission exacerbates Arctic and global warming, and it is more significant in the Arctic in the next twenty years and across the rest of the world in the next one hundred years. The greatest climate impact factor is CO 2 , followed by NO X and BC which are more important in global and Arctic warming, respectively. [Display omitted] • The maximum emission is CO 2 , followed by NO X and CO in the shipping along the NSR. • Shipping emissions have great impact on the Arctic climate in the next 20 years. • NO X and BC from shipping have greater impact on globe and the Arctic, respectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of Arctic navigation safety is becoming increasingly important due to the rise in commercial and strategic significance of Arctic shipping routes. To explore the state of risk assessment methodologies in the context of Arctic navigation safety, this paper conducts a comprehensive bibliometric analysis of 149 articles, along with an in-depth review of 22 articles. The analysis reveals that despite a surge in research focus since 2015, particularly regarding collision risks involving ship-to-ship and ship-to-ice encounters in the Northeast passage, substantial gaps exist in applying these models in practice. The study highlights that equipment failures are largely neglected in academic discussions, and the Northwest Passage is under-researched despite its operational challenges, such as difficulties in predicting ice conditions due to wind and currents from the North American continent, smaller navigation windows, and so forth. The most applied risk assessment models are identified for various decision-making contexts, acknowledging their methodological limitations. The paper concludes with a call for decision-oriented modelling techniques and the bridging of academic research with practical application. It recommends incorporation of overlooked risk factors, such as equipment failures, human error, and region-specific navigational challenges, to develop more robust and applicable risk assessment models for various decision scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

New Procedures for Maritime Sustainability Through their proposition of applied technical solutions to construct more sustainable maritime transport, the different perspectives of the international researchers can be deduced from the varying research topics. When energy efficiency is achieved for onboard processes fuel reduction is obtained, but its emissions are still contaminated; more research papers aimed to reduce this effect using optimised scrubbers [[2]] to achieve a scrubber-silencer system. This Special Issue "Sustainability in Maritime Transport: Advances, Solutions and Pending Tasks", gives an up-to-date overview of the use new technologies to obtain more sustainable maritime transport based on new combustibles, working procedures and related industries, with all of them in agreement with the technical limitations indicated by safety on board. [Extracted from the article]

The ablation of Arctic sea ice makes seasonal navigation possible in the Arctic region, which accounted for the apparent influence of sea ice concentration in the navigation of the Arctic route. This paper uses Arctic sea ice concentration daily data from January 1, 2000, to December 31, 2019. We used a sea ice concentration threshold value of 40% to define the time window for navigating through the Arctic Northeast Passage (NEP). In addition, for the year when the navigation time of the NEP is relatively abnormal, we combined with wind field, temperature, temperature anomaly, sea ice age and sea ice movement data to analyze the sea ice conditions of the NEP and obtain the main factors affecting the navigation of the NEP. The results reveal the following: (1) The sea ice concentration of the NEP varies greatly seasonally. The best month for navigation is September. The opening time of the NEP varies from late July to early September, the end of navigation is concentrated in mid-October, and the navigation time is basically maintained at more than 30 days. (2) The NEP was not navigable in 2000, 2001, 2003 and 2004. The main factors are the high amount of multi-year ice, low temperature and the wind field blowing towards the Vilkitsky Strait and sea ice movement. The navigation time in 2012, 2015 and 2019 was longer, and the driving factors were the high temperature, weak wind and low amount of one-year ice. The navigation time in 2003, 2007 and 2013 was shorter, and the influencing factors were the strong wind field blowing towards the Vilkitsky Strait. (3) The key navigable areas of the NEP are the central part of the East Siberian Sea and the Vilkitsky Strait, and the Vilkitsky Strait has a greater impact on the NEP than the central part of the East Siberian Sea. The main reason for the high concentration of sea ice in the central part of the East Siberian Sea (2000 and 2001) was the large amount of multi-year ice. The main reason for the high concentration of sea ice in the Vilkitsky Strait (2000 to 2004 and 2007, 2013) was the strong offshore wind in summer, all of which were above 4 m s−1, pushing the sea ice near the Vilkitsky Strait to accumulate in the strait, thus affecting the opening of the NEP.

The unique, ambiguous, and complex navigable environment determines the essential difference between Arctic shipping routes and conventional routes in regard to safety issues. To achieve a scientific understanding of the characteristics and variations of environmental risks involved in the Arctic shipping, it is essential to rationally address the uncertainty and incompleteness of environment-related risk information. In this study, fuzzy evidential reasoning is introduced to carry out multisource heterogeneous data fusion and spatiotemporal dynamic assessment of navigable environmental risks for Arctic shipping routes. Based on big Earth data collected from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, National Snow And Ice Data Center, National Center for Environmental Information, and University of Bremen from 2012 to 2019, a case study of the Northeast Passage is considered to demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed methodology. Finally, the results are described from three aspects: spatial distribution, temporal changes, and sensitivity analysis, with consideration of the entire passage and five marginal seas at the same time. Based on these findings, the prospect of application of big Earth data in risk assessment is further discussed from two aspects of knowledge acquisition by big data and risk analysis at different scales, to inspire sustainable development of Arctic shipping., (© 2022 Society for Risk Analysis.)

• The feasibility of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) is assessed against the product tanker segment. • A speed optimisation model is developed to minimise the required freight rate. • Fuel prices, fees and ice damage repairs largely determine the competitiveness of the NSR. • Higher distance savings favour the use of the NSR across all ship sizes. • A global fuel tax increases competitiveness of the NSR; a ban on Heavy Fuel Oil limits its potential. This paper investigates the feasibility of the Northern Sea Route (NSR) using a speed optimisation model to minimise the required freight rate, by employing current data from a shipowner, supported by secondary data, conducting petroleum product transport on the NSR. The oil product tanker segment is used to assess route alternatives taking into account distance, ship size, ice breaking fees, fuel types and prices. Environmental policy elements are included in the cost analysis to account for low sulphur fuels from 2020, a prospective ban on the use of heavy fuel oil in the Arctic, and a possible global fuel tax. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Historically, the Arctic has been much more important to Russia than to other Arctic countries. In Soviet times, the development of the Arctic was of paramount importance and it was used by the Soviet government to legitimise its great power status to domestic and international audiences. It is argued in this paper that the administration of President Putin has re-established a narrative on Russia as an Arctic power. In this sense, Russia not only seeks to exploit natural resources and develop the Northern Sea Route, but to project status as it conceives of itself as a great power. This paper suggests that the Arctic is not only becoming more important for Russia itself but also for Northeast Asian countries, as China, Japan and South Korea require a stable regional environment and secure supply of natural resources, which are essential for their prosperity and stability. In this sense, diverse partnerships are being developed between Russian and Northeast Asian countries; this work analyses the key components of those partnerships and its potential benefits. The development of the Far North constitutes an essential component in Russia's larger and long-term project to develop Asiatic Russia. It would be fallacious to examine Russia's Arctic strategy only through the prism of the current confrontation between Russia and the West. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The south-eastern part of the Barents Sea, conventionally called the Pechora Sea, is among the most peculiar regions of the European Arctic. It is a shallow shelf area that is directly influenced by modified Atlantic and Arctic waters, as well as by freshwater runoff from the Pechora River. Due to its unique environmental features and habitats, the Pechora Sea is regarded as one of the most important areas of the Barents Sea. Rich planktonic and benthic communities, including extensive mussel beds, support large stocks of fish, seals, and walruses, and enormous gatherings of benthos feeding waterfowl. In recent years, economic activities, such as oil and gas production, shipping of crude oil through marine terminals, and ship traffic along the Northern Sea Route, have dramatically increased in the Pechora Sea. These anthropogenic pressures, as well as the observed and predicted natural environmental changes, will most likely affect the sea's pelagic and benthic ecosystems. Therefore, information on the current state of the Pechora Sea ecosystems is urgently needed to provide baseline reference data, against which possible future shifts can be determined. The research presented in this special issue provides such data on the most important elements of the Pechora Sea ecosystems and adjacent areas and demonstrates the interconnection between these ecosystem components and key environmental factors. Considering the already recorded and potential changes in this region, the observed trends and processes in marine biota can be applied to other low Arctic seas and serve for modelling and predictions of future ecosystem shifts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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The article considers a range of issues related to the development of transport in the Siberian Arctic territories of Tyumen and Krasnoyarsk. It describes two main transport achievements in the Tyumen Arctic: the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which has acquired new importance for the transport of oil and liquefied natural gas, and the continuing construction of ground-based transport infrastructure—railways and year-round paved roads. The article also describes several shortcomings in the transport system of the Krasnoyarsk Arctic due to the presence of mostly seasonal routes dominated by river and sea transport, the lack of alternative transport schemas, and an extremely high level of transport costs. An analysis is given of the priorities and functions of the Northern Sea Route and its increasing importance as a transport-logistics provider for major oil, gas, and other natural resource projects and the export of raw materials from coastal areas to foreign and domestic markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article considers the stages, conditions, possibilities, and challenges of developing the Arctic zone of Krasnoyarsk Krai. We describe the structure of potential industrial clusters, and formulate possible alternatives, scenarios, and mechanisms of how the macroregion could development in the future. We argue that a programmatic, target-oriented approach will ensure the development of a diversified economic complex and high standards of living in the region [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is about reading and using the Soviet texts published in the 1930s on the Northern sea route (NSR) and the Arctic in general. The history of the NSR exploration and exploitation and its current potential as a round-the-year transportation waterway connecting the Pacific and the Atlantic is outlined. Specific features of the 1930s' sources for the study of the NSR are explored using the example of the journal Sovetskaya Arktika (The Soviet Arctic), published between 1935 and 1941. The representation of the Northern Sea Route in this journal is described from two perspectives: what was presented (and what wasn't) and how it was presented. Special characteristics of the language used are considered to be interesting examples of the Soviet version of "totalitarian language" (newspeak, langue de bois). Historical sources written in this kind of language require special skills and special caution to read, interpret, and use. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract The recent decline of the Arctic sea ice cover leads to an increasing number of vessels navigating through the Arctic shipping routes. Ballast water, essential for the vessel's safety during voyages and cargo transfers, however, is also considered one of the main vectors for transport and introduction of non-indigenous species. The aim of this paper is to investigate potential effects of the ballast water discharged in the main Arctic shipping routes on the local environment. For that a passive tracer was implemented in a fine resolution coupled ocean-sea ice model covering the entire Arctic and northern North Atlantic, to simulate the spread of the ballast water discharged based on release points along real ship positions from 2013. The model results showed that spring and summer were the seasons with the highest tendency for accumulation of ballast water tracer on the surface layers south of Novaya Zemlya and south of Spitsbergen, not only due to a higher number of vessels navigating in the area but also due to strong stratification. During winter and autumn, the tracer was mixed with and into deeper layers due to vertical convection. The simulated ballast water accumulation during spring and summer indicated that organisms, that survived the voyage in the ballast tanks, could establish a stable or growing population and eventually become invasive. Highlights • Ballast water tracer pathways and accumulation areas have strong seasonality. • High concentrations of ballast water tracer in deeper layers in winter and autumn. • During summer and spring tracer is kept in the surface layers due to stratification. • Tracer accumulated in the Barents Sea and west Spitsbergen during summer and autumn. • Ballast water accumulation may present risks of contamination to local environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Most studies of Asian state involvement in Arctic affairs assume that shorter sea-lanes to Europe are a major driver of interest, so this article begins by examining the prominence of shipping concerns in Arctic policy statements made by major Asian states. Using a bottom-up approach, we consider the advantages of Arctic sea routes over the Suez and Panama alternatives in light of the political, bureaucratic and economic conditions surrounding shipping and shipbuilding in China, Japan and the Republic of Korea. Especially Japanese and Korean policy documents indicate soberness rather than optimism concerning Arctic sea routes, noting the remaining limitations and the need for in-depth feasibility studies. That policymakers show greater caution than analysts, links in with our second finding: in Japan and Korea, maritime-sector bureaucracies responsible for industries with Arctic experience have been closely involved in policy development, more so than in China. Thirdly, we find a clear tendency towards rising industry-level caution and restraint in all three countries, reflecting financial difficulties in several major companies as well as growing sensitivity to the economic and political risks associated with the Arctic routes. Finally, our examination of bilateral and multilateral Chinese, Japanese and Korean diplomatic activity concerning Arctic shipping exhibits a lower profile than indicated by earlier studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Mega-ships, the maximum containerships represented by 20,000TEU-class (LOA:400m, Breadth: 60m, Draft: 16m) which are able to transit both the Malacca Strait and the Suez Canal, have emerged in 2013, aiming at lower shipping cost by economy of scale. At the same time, they inevitably increased port calls in a rotation to collect more cargo demand, resulting in the longer transit time than ever before. Taking this trend into account, the authors proposed the quick delivery scenario between East Asia and Northwest Europe by the NSR (Northern Sea Route)/SCR (Suez Canal Route)-combined shipping, of which 4,000 TEU ice-class containership transits the NSR during the summer season and the SCR in the wintertime, based on a year-round scheduled operation. The quick delivery scenario gives the shorter transit time at an affordable shipping cost depending on the NSR navigable season length. However, the quick delivery scenario cannot avoid uncertainties in navigation especially via the NSR in the summer season, due to rough weather, sea ice, low visibility and icing in the icy water section of the NSR. The authors preliminarily concluded that a year-round scheduled operation of the NSR/SCR-combined shipping will be secured, if the practical navigation schedule is appropriately prepared. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Vessels designed for navigation in ice can perform voyage with the assistance of icebreaker in the navigation season in case an ice cover area is less than 20%. Whereas the same vessels could carry out successfully completed voyage through the NSR with intensive icebreaker help at the ice-covered area lower than 42%. Navigation of the same vessel at ice covered area above 80% is possible with intensive icebreaker help, but it threatens to damage the hull, rudder or propeller. Excessive generalization of data analyzed may cause to wrong, even opposite conclusions. Using only basic statistical information in the form of average values and standard deviation may be not sufficient for the purpose of vessel's voyage planning in areas covered with ice. Much more opportunities for the assessment of navigation in ice covered regions provides cumulative distribution, which should be related to the time and geographical space distribution. It allows to determine the duration of time window for given area covered with ice in a particular region and predetermined probability of its occurrence. It is thus possible to plan approximate date of departure and duration of voyage for assumed safety criteria. Also, it is possible to plan a number of consecutive voyages in a navigation season. Mathematical approach to voyage planning in ice based on a cumulative distribution is presented in the paper. It allows creation of an advisory computer application to support decision-making by the commander of a vessel. It will reduce the human factor in data processing and reduce possibility of making a mistake. By this way, can be enhanced the safety of maritime transport. Novell approach is verified on the example of historical data about the German Navy ship activity during the Second World War. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Despite shortening voyages between Asia and Europe by the Northern Sea Route (NSR) over the Suez Canal route (SCR), increased NSR's traffic intensifies vessel-based emissions to the Arctic Sea. This study investigates NSR's feasibility with a combination of operational and regulatory emissions control (EC) measures against the SCR and NSR's status quo without EC measures to derive sustainable policy without harming the NSR's economic feasibility. A mixed-integer nonlinear optimization model decides optimum speeds and heavy fuel oil (HFO)-banned areas for minimizing cost and emissions via NSR. Some scenarios indicate fewer emissions and costs from NSR with EC measures than NSR's status quo and SCR when emissions taxes are enforced on both routes. EC measures affect NSR's feasibility depending on ice conditions (ice-free, medium ice, and heavy ice scenarios) and slow steaming potential. A trade-off between economic and environmental objectives encourages combining operational and regulatory EC measures to support NSR's feasibility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Under severe Arctic ice conditions, escort operations are the most efficient methods for facilitating shipping. Nevertheless, escort operations are among the most dangerous operations, as they may result in icebreaker–ship collisions and/or ship besetting in ice. To mitigate the risk of collisions, it is essential to understand the event sequences of collisions and the risk control options that can be implemented to reduce the occurrence of undesired events. This paper proposes a hybrid causal logic model to estimate the likelihood of an icebreaker–ship collision while considering human factors during an escort operation along the Northeast Passage. The model relies on inputs from four icebreaker captains. Its applicability is demonstrated for a 2018 summer voyage of a cargo ship assisted by an icebreaker. Risk control options are then proposed based on qualitative and sensitivity analyses of the model. The results of this study can assist shipping companies to better understand the sequence of events prior to icebreaker–ship collisions during escort operations in ice-covered waters. This paper provides information on risk reduction measures. In addition, the proposed model can assist in route planning. • A novel model is presented to analyse the icebreaker-ship collision in escort operations. • A captain-verified collision sequence diagram is presented. • Most dangerous events leading to the collision are derived. • Risk control options in escort operations are proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Shipping activities in the Northern Sea Route (NSR) are increasing. However, due to the complex sea ice conditions, ships still need assistance of icebreakers when sailing through most Arctic waters. Icebreaker escort operations are important to ensure the safe passage of ships through ice-covered waters, but the speed of following ships will be limited, thus creating challenges for NSR sailing economics and emission reduction issues. Optimizing the sailing speed of following ships can reduce NSR ship emissions and improve navigation economy while safeguarding their sailing safety. In this paper, a green, economical and safe optimization approach under ship-following navigation has been developed by drawing on similarities with the car-following phenomenon. Then, three ship-following scenarios are designed for simulating the actual ice navigation conditions. Finally, a cost-eco-efficiency multi-objective optimisation model for ice navigation is established, and the performance of the proposed model is demonstrated by the navigation case of " Tian You ". The results show that the proposed model can effectively reduce navigation costs and control navigation emissions while ensuring navigation safety. This study also demonstrates that there is still room for a 20% improvement in the optimised speed and a 4.8% reduction in the ship-following distance compared to the actual situation. • A green, economical and safe optimization approach under ship-following navigation in ice-covered waters is proposed. • Three ship-following scenarios are designed for simulating the actual ice navigation conditions. • A cost- eco-efficiency dynamic optimization model for ice navigation in the Arctic is established. • The performance of the proposed model is demonstrated by the navigation case of " Tian You ". [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a generalized Nash equilibrium model to investigate if Arctic routes can be used as a “relief valve” for current intercontinental sea routes. This model is presented as a Stackelberg form, where the shipping companies correspond to the leaders and the customers correspond to the followers. The competition among shipping companies (leaders), which seek to maximize their profits, can be represented as a generalized Nash equilibrium and solved by the alternating direction method of multipliers algorithm, based on penalization. On the basis of the competition results, the customers (followers) choose the optimal shipping companies; this results in the allocation of container volumes on different sailing routes, which can be described by a logit-type multi-path assignment model. Different scenarios in our modelling show that as shipping speeds decrease through the use of Arctic sea routes, company profits increase. In particular, as navigable days on the Northern Sea Route (NSR) increase, the container trade will increasingly tilt towards this route and shipping companies using it will gain more profits than they did before the opening of this route. At the same time, the proportion of container volume through the Suez Canal will be reduced because it will be less profitable.

The article investigates the opportunity of the development of a new transnational transport corridor on the base of the NSR, which is much shorter and faster than the usual one. The basis of this project is Sabetta seaport, which is considered as a potential transnational transport hub. The authors investigated the opportunities for the development of intermodal terminals and new services/goods for the East-West and North-South international transport corridors. They design this idea on the base of multi-modal transportation approach for the development of a global innovation project of NSR Transnational Transport Corridor. Using classical methods of analysis, they conclude that the port of Sabetta, as well as other ports in the Yamal Peninsula currently does not have direct rail access to the Central Russia regions and it can be good potential for regional development in Ural and Siberia. The research was limited by the official statistics about NSR dynamic of cargo volume. The results of research can provide the development of new multimodal transnational transport corridor and can be the basis of regional development in northern Russian regions. The implementation of the idea can provide a significant amount of new jobs and an enormous amount of international investments. Mainly in international scientific literacy authors examine the question of North Transport corridor by logistic and geographical aspects. The article investigates this question in more complex aspect by a multimodal approach with involvement in the NSR another means of communication like a river, railway and motorway transportation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]