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Due to the new carbon neutral policies, many district heating operators start operating their combined heat and power (CHP) plants using different types of biomass instead of fossil fuel. The contracts with the biomass suppliers are negotiated months in advance and involve many uncertainties from the energy producer's side. The demand for biomass is uncertain at that time, and heat demand and electricity prices vary drastically during the planning period. Furthermore, the optimal operation of combined heat and power plants has to consider the existing synergies between the power and heating systems. We propose a solution method using stochastic optimization to support the biomass supply planning for combined heat and power plants. Our two-phase approach determines mid-term decisions about biomass supply contracts as well as short-term decisions regarding the optimal production of the producer to ensure profitability and feasibility. We present results based on two realistic test cases.

The short-term operation of a power system is usually planned by solving a day-ahead unit commitment problem. Due to historical reasons, the commitment of the power generating units is decided over a time horizon typically consisting of the 24 hourly periods of a day. In this paper, we show that, as a result of the increasing penetration of intermittent renewable generation, this somewhat arbitrary and artificial division of time may prove to be significantly suboptimal and counterproductive. Instead, we propose a time-adaptive day-ahead unit commitment formulation that better captures the net-demand variability throughout the day. The proposed formulation provides the commitment and dispatch of thermal generating units over a set of 24 time periods too, but with different duration. To do that, we use a clustering procedure to select the duration of those adaptive time periods taking into account the renewable generation and demand forecasts. Numerical results show that, without increasing the computational burden, the proposed time-adaptive unit commitment allows for a more efficient use of the system flexibility, which translates into a lower operating cost and a higher penetration of renewable production than those achieved by a conventional hourly unit commitment problem.

The most common procedure to solve a linear bilevel problem in the PES community is, by far, to transform it into an equivalent single-level problem by replacing the lower level with its KKT optimality conditions. Then, the complementarity conditions are reformulated using additional binary variables and large enough constants (big-Ms) to cast the single-level problem as a mixed-integer linear program that can be solved using optimization software. In most cases, such large constants are tuned by trial and error. We show, through a counterexample, that this widely used trial-and-error approach may lead to highly suboptimal solutions. Then, further research is required to properly select big-M values to solve linear bilevel problems.

This paper presents a corrigendum to Theorems 2 and 3 in Siddiqui S, Gabriel S (2013), An SOS1-Based Approach for Solving MPECs with a Natural Gas Market Application, Networks and Spatial Economics 13(2):205--227. In brief, we revise the claim that their L-penalty approach yields a solution satisfying complementarity for any positive value of L, in general. This becomes evident when interpreting the L-penalty method as a weighted-sum scalarization of a bicriteria optimization problem. We also elaborate further assumptions under which the L-penalty approach yields a solution satisfying complementarity.

Vital rates such as survival and recruitment have always been important in the study of population and community ecology. At the individual level, physiological processes such as energetics are critical in understanding biomechanics and movement ecology and also scale up to influence food webs and trophic cascades. Although vital rates and population-level characteristics are tied with individual-level animal movement, most statistical models for telemetry data are not equipped to provide inference about these relationships because they lack the explicit, mechanistic connection to physiological dynamics. We present a framework for modeling telemetry data that explicitly includes an aggregated physiological process associated with decision making and movement in heterogeneous environments. Our framework accommodates a wide range of movement and physiological process specifications. We illustrate a specific model formulation in continuous-time to provide direct inference about gains and losses associated with physiological processes based on movement. Our approach can also be extended to accommodate auxiliary data when available. We demonstrate our model to infer mountain lion (in Colorado, USA) and African buffalo (in Kruger National Park, South Africa) recharge dynamics.

This paper deals with the problem of clearing sequential electricity markets under uncertainty. We consider the European approach, where reserves are traded separately from energy to meet exogenous reserve requirements. Recently pro- posed stochastic dispatch models that co-optimize these services provide the most efficient solution in terms of expected operating costs by computing reserve needs endogenously. However, these models are incompatible with existing market designs. This paper proposes a new method to compute reserve requirements that bring the outcome of sequential markets closer to the stochastic energy and reserves co-optimization in terms of cost efficiency. Our method is based on a stochastic bilevel program that implicitly improves the inter-temporal coordination of energy and reserve markets, but remains compatible with the European market design. We use two standard IEEE reliability test cases to illustrate the benefit of intelligently setting operating reserves in single and multiple reserve control zones.

In energy systems with high shares of weather-driven renewable power sources, gas-fired power plants can serve as a back-up technology to ensure security of supply and provide short-term flexibility. Therefore, a tighter coordination between electricity and natural gas networks is foreseen. In this work, we examine different levels of coordination in terms of system integration and time coupling of trading floors. We propose an integrated operational model for electricity and natural gas systems under uncertain power supply by applying two-stage stochastic programming. This formulation co-optimizes day-ahead and real-time dispatch of both energy systems and aims at minimizing the total expected cost. Additionally, two deterministic models, one of an integrated energy system and one that treats the two systems independently, are presented. We utilize a formulation that considers the linepack of the natural gas system, while it results in a tractable mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) model. Our analysis demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed model in accommodating high shares of renewables and the importance of proper natural gas system modeling in short-term operations to reveal valuable flexibility of the natural gas system. Moreover, we identify the coordination parameters between the two markets and show their impact on the system's operation and dispatch.

K2-18 is a nearby M2.5 dwarf, located at 34 pc and hosting a transiting planet which was first discovered by the {\it K2} mission and later confirmed with {\it Spitzer Space Telescope} observations. With a radius of $\sim 2 \, R_{\oplus}$ and an orbital period of $\sim 33$ days, the planet lies in the temperate zone of its host star and receives stellar irradiation similar to Earth. Here we perform radial velocity follow-up observations with the visual channel of CARMENES with the goal of determining the mass and density of the planet. We measure a planetary semi-amplitude of $K_b \sim 3.5$ \mpersec\ and a mass of $M_b \sim 9 \, M_{\oplus}$, yielding a bulk density around $\rho_b \sim 4 \, \mathrm{g \,cm^{-3}}$. This indicates a low-mass planet with a composition consistent with a solid core and a volatile-rich envelope. A signal at 9 days was recently reported using radial velocity measurements taken with the HARPS spectrograph. This was interpreted as being due to a second planet. We see a weaker, time and wavelength dependent signal in the CARMENES data set and thus favor stellar activity for its origin. \ktwo\ joins the growing group of low-mass planets detected in the temperate zone of M dwarfs. The brightness of the host star in the near-infrared makes the system a good target for detailed atmospheric studies with the {\it James Webb Space Telescope}., Comment: fixing author list

Spatio-temporal problems exist in many areas of knowledge and disciplines ranging from biology to engineering and physics. However, solution strategies based on classical statistical techniques often fall short due to the large number of parameters that are to be estimated and the huge amount of data that need to be handled. In this paper we apply known techniques in a novel way to provide a framework for spatio-temporal modeling which is both computationally efficient and has a low dimensional parameter space. We present a micro-to-macro approach whereby the local dynamics are first modeled and subsequently combined to capture the global system behavior. The proposed methodology relies on coupled stochastic differential equations and is applied to produce spatio-temporal forecasts for a solar power plant for very short horizons, which essentially implies tracking clouds moving across the field of solar power inverters. We outperform simple and complex benchmarks while providing forecasts for 70 spatial dimensions and 24 lead times (i.e., for a total number of random variables equal to 1680). The resulting model can provide all sorts of forecast products, ranging from point forecasts and co-variances to predictive densities, multi-horizon forecasts, and space-time trajectories., Comment: 24 pages, 6 figures

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are commonly used to model animal movement data and infer aspects of animal behavior. An HMM assumes that each data point from a time series of observations stems from one of $N$ possible states. The states are loosely connected to behavioral modes that manifest themselves at the temporal resolution at which observations are made. However, due to advances in tag technology, data can be collected at increasingly fine temporal resolutions. Yet, inferences at time scales cruder than those at which data are collected, and which correspond to larger-scale behavioral processes, are not yet answered via HMMs. We include additional hierarchical structures to the basic HMM framework in order to incorporate multiple Markov chains at various time scales. The hierarchically structured HMMs allow for behavioral inferences at multiple time scales and can also serve as a means to avoid coarsening data. Our proposed framework is one of the first that models animal behavior simultaneously at multiple time scales, opening new possibilities in the area of animal movement modeling. We illustrate the application of hierarchically structured HMMs in two real-data examples: (i) vertical movements of harbor porpoises observed in the field, and (ii) garter snake movement data collected as part of an experimental design., Comment: 28 pages, 4 figures