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日本の農村地域は国全体の高齢化を20年ほど先取りして既に超高齢社会になっている。したがって、21世紀の日本の高齢化社会のなかで、農村地域における高齢者の生活が維持できるかどうかは、深刻な問題となっている。こうした状況のなかで、2000年4月に介護保険制度が施行された。社会保険公式の導入、「措置」から「契約」の移行、民間事業者の参入などにより日本の高齢者福祉システムは大きく変化してきた。それは、介護サービス利用者が多様なサービスを選択し、利用できるようになったことである。このような制度のもと、山形県最上郡戸沢村と長野県小県郡旧真田町(現在の上田市真田町)での事例を通して、本稿の目的は、(1)農村・農家での要介護高齢者への家族介護について、(2)高齢者介護と農業生産との相互の関係性、(3)介護サービス利用後の高齢者生活の変化等、三つの点を明らかにすることである。さらに、その分析を踏まえたうえで、介護保険制度の導入によって発生する問題を検討するとともに、農村地域における要介護高齢者と主介護者の生活の質を高めるための課題を探ることである。

The coseismic slip on the main fault related to the 2017 Iran-Iraq Mw7.3 earthquake has been investigated by previous studies using DInSAR (differential interferometric synthetic aperture radar) ground deformation measurements. However, DInSAR observation is not sensitive to the ground deformation in the along-track (AT) direction. Therefore, only the one-dimensional (1D) DInSAR coseismic deformation field measurements, derived in the LOS (line-of-sight) direction of radar, was applied in source parameters estimation. To further improve the accuracy of the fault slip inversion, the 3D (three-dimensional) coseismic deformation fields were reconstructed in the first place, by a combined use of the DInSAR and MAI (multiple aperture InSAR) measurements. Subsequently, the LOS and 3D deformation data sets were used as the constraint respectively, to perform a two-step inversion scheme to find an optimal geometry and slip distribution on the main fault. The comparative analysis indicated that the 3D coseismic deformation data sets improved the inversion-accuracy by 30%. Besides, the fault invention results revealed a deep dislocation on a NNW trending fault (the strike is 352.63°) extending about 60 km, along the fault dips 14.76° to the ENE. The estimated seismic moment is 8.44 × 1019 Nm (Mw7.3), which is close to the solution provided by USGS (United States Geological Survey). The slip distributed at the depth between 12 and 18 km, and the peak slip of 6.53 m appears at the depth of 14.5 km left near the epicenter. Considering the geological structure in the earthquake region and fault source-parameters, it comes to a preliminary conclusion that the ZMFF (the Zagros Mountain Front fault) should be responsible for the earthquake. In general, this paper demonstrated the superiority of using the 3D coseismic deformation fields on source parameters estimation.

Lifestyle exposures including temperature have been studied in relationship to male reproductive health. In this project, we focused on two main parameters linked to infertility after testicular exposure of temperature. We evaluated the effects of a mild testis temperature increase (+2°C) on sperm morphology and sperm aneuploidy in five healthy men and examined its potential reversibility. We used 27 fertile men for comparison of results (control group), and designed an experimental protocol that induced in five healthy fertile men, an increase of testicular and epididymal temperature by maintained the testes in a supra-scrotal position by means of specially designed underwear worn 15 ± 1 hours daily consecutive days. The first part of my thesis was dedicated to the study of the effects of a mild testis temperature increase (+2°C) on sperm morphology and multiple anomalies index (MAI). We observed that a significant impact on sperm morphology and MAI as early as days 20 and 34 reflecting an effect on the spermiogenesis and meiosis stages. This drastic effect was present during the entire heated period and recovery of the values before heating was observed at day193. In the second part, sperm aneuploidies of chromosomes X, Y, 18 were analyzed by fluorescence in situ hybridization (FISH) before, during and after a mild testis temperature increase. We found that a signi?cant increase in total sperm aneuploidy, sex disomy and nullisomy at 45 days post-heating. Moreover, since increased abnormal sex disomy XY18, sex nullisomy and total sperm aneuploidy values were observed at the same time, these effects were completely reversed at least two spermatogenesis cycles after heat exposure. Our results may have clinical implications in male infertility, the effect of a mild testis temperature increase was reversible but it seems advisable to allow at least one or two cycles of spermatogenesis to pass in order to recover normal exacting function.; L'impact des expositions de la vie courante, et en particulier de la température, sur la reproduction masculine est très étudié. Dans ce projet, nous avons étudié deux principaux paramètres liés à l'infertilité après une exposition testiculaire à une augmentation modérée de température (+2°C) chez des hommes sains : la morphologie et l'aneuploïdie du spermatozoïde et exploré leur potentielle réversibilité. Nous avons conçu un protocole expérimental qui a impliqué 5 hommes fertiles et une population témoin de 27 autres hommes fertiles. L'augmentation de température testiculaire et épididymaire a été obtenue en maintenant les testicules dans une position supra-scrotale au moyen de sous-vêtements spécialement conçu, portés 15 +/- 1heure par jour pendant 120 jours consécutifs. La première partie de ma thèse a été consacrée à l'étude de l'augmentation de température sur la morphologie des spermatozoïdes et l'indice des anomalies multiples (IAM). Nous avons observé un impact significatif sur la morphologie du sperme et l'IAM entre le 20ème et 34ème jour reflétant un effet sur les stades de spermiogenèse et de méiose. Cet effet drastique a été présent pendant toute la période de chauffage et la récupération des valeurs initiales a été observée au 73ème jour. Dans une deuxième partie, les aneuploïdies des chromosomes X,Y, 18 ont été analysées par hybridation in situ par la fluorescence (FISH) avant, pendant et après l'augmentation modérée de température. Nous avons constaté une augmentation significative de l'aneuploïdie totale du sperme, de la disomie sexuelle et de la nullisomie au 45ème jour après chauffage. Ces effets ont été complétement inversés après deux cycles de spermatogenèse après l'exposition à la chaleur. Ces résultats confirment l'impact de la température sur la spermatogenèse et peuvent avoir des implications cliniques dans l'infertilité masculine et notamment le concept de réversibilité après au moins deux cycles de spermatogenèse sans exposition à la chaleur.

Cilj istraživanja bio je odrediti učestalost propisivanja potencijalno neprikladnih lijekova pomoću implicitnog protokola Indeksa prikladnosti lijekova (MAI) te odrediti njihovu povezanost s kliničkim ishodima. Istraživanje je provedeno na Zavodu za gastroenterologiju Kliničke bolnice Dubrava u razdoblju od listopada 2014. do listopada 2015. godine, a uključivalo je pacijente starije od 65 godina s bolestima probavnog sustava ili neoplazmama. U razdoblju od tri do pet mjeseci nakon otpusta iz bolnice pacijenti su kontaktirani u svrhu prikupljanja podataka o kliničkim ishodima. Na temelju prikupljenih podataka o terapiji pacijenata tijekom hospitalizacije, za svaki lijek određivala se njegova prikladnost, odnosno neprikladnost za svaki od MAI kriterija. Iz dobivenih rezultata izračunati su indeksi prikladnosti lijekova i indeksi prikladnosti cjelokupne terapije pacijenta. Za utvrđivanje povezanosti kliničkih ishoda i lijekova korišteni su Sažetci opisa svojstava lijeka. Ukoliko je utvrđena povezanost, za određeni lijek se promatralo je li bio neprikladan prema pojedinom MAI kriteriju. Također, analizirana je povezanost indeksa prikladnosti s utvrđenim kliničkim ishodima. U istraživanje je bilo uključeno 62 pacijenata prosječne životne dobi 73,8 ± 5,5 godina koji su uzimali 7,1 ± 3,5 lijekova te su imali 5,9 ± 2,9 dijagnoza. MAI analizom određena su 304 (68,6%) potencijalno neprikladna lijeka kod 60 (96,8%) ispitanika. Najviše neprikladnih lijekova utvrđeno je za kriterije koji su ispitivali jesu li dane ispravne upute (24,8%), postojanje indikacije (19,6%) i postojanje lijek-lijek interakcija (14,9%). Srednja vrijednost indeksa prikladnosti lijekova iznosila je 2,2 ± 2,3, a srednja vrijednost indeksa prikladnosti cjelokupne terapije pacijenata bila je 15,9 ± 10,9. Najviše neprikladnih lijekova utvrđeno je iz ATK skupine A (probavni sustav i mijena tvari) i C (kardiovaskularni sustav), a najveći indeks prikladnosti utvrđen je za skupine S (osjetila) (6,50 ± 0,71 ) i M (koštano mišićni sustav) (5,25 ± 3,08). Od 10 lijekova za koje je ustanovljena povezanost s kliničkim ishodima, samo četiri lijeka su bila neprikladna za jedan ili više MAI kriterija. Nije otkrivena statistički značajna korelacija između broja utvrđenih kliničkih ishoda kod pojedinog pacijenta i indeksa prikladnosti (p=0,300). Također, nije otkrivena statistički značajna razlika između indeksa prikladnosti pacijenata s ili bez pojedinog kliničkog ishoda. Izuzetak je ponovna hospitalizacija za koju je indeks prikladnosti ponovno hospitaliziranih pacijenata bio značajno niži nego u pacijenata koji nisu bili ponovno hospitalizirani (11,00 ± 5,96 naspram 17,61 ± 11,77; p=0,019). Indeks prikladnosti lijekova je osjetljiv protokol kojim je otkrivena visoka prevalencija potencijalno neprikladnih lijekova, ali nije utvrđena njihova povezanost s kliničkim ishodima. The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of potentially inappropriate medications (PIM) used by implicit criteria Medication Appropriateness Index (MAI) and to determine the association between PIM and clinical outcomes. The study was conducted at the Department of Gastroenterology of Clinic for Internal Medicine, University Hospital Dubrava from October 2014 to October 2015 and included patients older than 65 years with the disease of digestive system or neoplasms. Clinical outcomes were obtained by telephone interview in the period of three to five months after discharge from the hospital. Based on collected data of patient's therapy during hospital discharge, each drug was assessed to determine whether it was appropriate based on ten MAI criteria and subsequently MAI score per drug, as well as MAI score per patient were calculated. Summaries of product characteristics (SmPC) were used to determine association between clinical outcomes and drugs. For drugs which were associated with the clinical outcomes, additional analysis were done with the aim to determine if the drug was inappropriate according to any of MAI criteria. Moreover, the association between MAI score and clinical outcomes was analysed. The study included 62 patients with mean age 73,8 ± 5,5 years who used on average 7,1 ± 3,5 drugs and had 5,9 ± 2,9 diagnosis. 304 (68,6%) drugs were rated as inappropriate and they were used by 60 (96,8%) examinees. The percentage of inappropriate ratings was the highest for correct directions (24,8%), indication (19,6%) and drug-drug interactions (14,9%). The mean MAI score per drug was 2,2 ± 2,3 and the mean MAI score per patient was 15,9 ± 10,9. ATC classes A (alimentary tract and metabolism) and C (cardiovascular system) were most frequently prescribed inappropriately, while the highest MAI score was assessed for classes S (sensory organs) (6,50 ± 0,71 ) and M (musculo-skeletal system) (5,25 ± 3,08). Amongst ten drugs which were associated with clinical outcomes, only four of them were rated inappropriate for one or more MAI criteria. The number of clinical outcomes was not significantly correlated with higher MAI scores (p=0,300). Moreover, the difference in mean MAI scores between patients with and without recorded clinical outcomes was not statistically significant. Only rehospitalisation was identified as clinical outcome with significantly higher MAI scores compared to the patients who did not demand hospitalization (17,61 ± 11,77 vs 11,00 ± 5,96; p=0,019). Medication Appropriateness Index is sensitive measure which identifies high prevalence of potentially inappropriate medications, but its association with clinical outcomes was not determined.

Medical students are expected to improve critical thinking, clinical reasoning and problem solving skills. These cognitive attributes need to be supported with metacognitive skills. Students with better metacognitive ability will be able to synergize their learning with self-reflection strategies to achieve learning target. One of the tools to assess students’ metacognitive skills is Metacognition Awareness Inventory (MAI). This study is aimed to validate Indonesian MAI in the academic stage of undergraduate medical education and was done on May-June 2014 at faculty of medicine Universitas Malahayati Bandar Lampung. This study used cross-sectional design consisted of 3 stages: language adaptation, pilot study and validation study. Validation study involved 1200 medical students. Factor analysis was conducted to identify factors of MAI. Language adaptation and pilot study produced Indonesian MAI which contains the same number of items. There were 757 MAI questionnaires eligible for analysis. Extraction of the 51-item MAI using principal component analysis (PCA) produced 5 factors which were cognitive preparation, supervision, management, strategy and evaluation. The Cronbach alpha value for the whole Indonesian MAI was 0.904. Indonesian MAI complies to construct validity criteria, specifically content validity and internal consistency. MAI is useful as an instrument to assess metacognitive ability in the academic stage of undergraduate medical education.

National audience

Trabalho Final do Mestrado Integrado em Medicina apresentado à Faculdade de Medicina Introdução: A dieta e o estilo de vida desempenham um papel significativo no desenvolvimento do cancro. O tipo de dieta parece explicar cerca de 30% a 50% da incidência mundial de cancro colorretal (CCR). No entanto, dada a complexidade da etiologia, esta associação ainda não é bem entendida. A dieta mediterrânica é considerada um dos padrões alimentares mais saudáveis, cuja determinação é feita através de um índice de adesão denominado Mediterranean Adequacy Index (MAI). O objetivo principal deste trabalho foi perceber a influência da dieta na prevenção do CCR na população da Região Centro de Portugal.Métodos: O estudo foi realizado com 266 (164 controlo; 102 portadores de CCR) habitantes da Região Centro, submetidos a um questionário de frequência alimentar (QFA) que permitiu obter dados sobre o consumo de cada alimento e a sua conversão em nutrientes. O índice de MAI foi determinado dividindo a soma das percentagens de energia alimentar dos grupos de alimentos típicos da dieta mediterrânea pelas percentagens do grupo de alimentos não característicos.Resultados: A análise dos dados evidenciou um maior consumo de leite meio gordo, carnes vermelhas, carnes brancas e peixe, óleo, cereais, doces, hortaliças, legumes, frutas frescas e bebidas alcoólicas pelos indivíduos com CCR em comparação com os indivíduos controlo. Em relação aos hábitos alimentares chegou-se à conclusão que os indivíduos com diagnóstico de CCR estão mais horas sem comer e praticam menos exercício físico. No que diz respeito aos fatores de risco descritos para o CCR, os indivíduos com este diagnóstico são mais obstipados, e têm um valor de IMC que traduz excesso de peso. Foi elaborada análise multivariada recorrendo a um modelo de regressão logística, tendo demonstrado que os indivíduos são mais propensos a desenvolver CCR se forem obstipados e se estiverem mais horas sem comer entre as refeições.Discussão/Conclusão: Verificou-se através do cálculo do MAI que existem diferenças entre os grupos em estudo, apesar de apresentarem um baixo grau de adesão à dieta mediterrânica. Considera-se que o aumento do tamanho da amostra poderá permitir estabelecer relações mais evidentes entre o diagnóstico de CCR e o padrão alimentar da população da região centro. Introduction: Diet and lifestyle play a significant role in the development of cancer. The type of diet seems to account for about 30% to 50% of the worldwide incidence of colorectal cancer (CRC). However, given the complexity of CRC etiology, this association remains poorly understood. The Mediterranean diet is considered one of the healthiest dietary habits. The adherence to Mediterranean diet can be determined through an index called Mediterranean Adequacy Index (MAI). This study aims to understand the influence of diet on the prevention of CRC in the population of the central region of Portugal.Methods: The study was carried out with 266 (164 control, 102 CRCs) inhabitants of the central region. A food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was used to obtain data on the food consumption and its conversion into nutrients. MAI index was determined by dividing the sum of the percentage of total energy intake from typical Mediterranean food groups by the percentage of the total energy intake from non-typical Mediterranean food groups.Results: Data analysis showed a higher consumption of semi-skimmed milk, red meat, white meat and fish, oil, cereals, sweets, vegetables, fresh vegetables and alcoholic beverages by individuals with CRC in comparison with control subjects. Regarding the individuals' eating habits, it was concluded that individuals with a diagnosis of CRC have longer fasting periods and practice less exercise. Concerning the risk factors predisposing to CRC, individuals with CRC are more obstipated and have a BMI value corresponding to overweight. A multivariate analysis using a logistic regression model demonstrated that individuals are more likely to develop CRC if they are obstipated and if they skip more than one meal per day.Discussion / Conclusion: The MAI index values allowed us to conclude that there are differences between the groups under study, although both present a low degree of adherence to the Mediterranean diet. Increasing the sample size may allow establishing more evident relationships between the diagnosis of CRC and the food pattern of the population of the central region of Portugal.

With the increasing temperature and intensified drought, global climate change has profound impacts on tree growth in temperate regions, which consequently regulates terrestrial-atmosphere biogeochemical processes and biophysical feedbacks. Thus, increasing numbers of studies have addressed the long-term annual trends in tree growth and their response to climate change at diverse spatial scales. However, the potential divergence in tree growth trends and growth variability (represented by coefficient of variance) in different seasons across large-scale climate gradients remains poorly understood. Here, we investigated the tree growth trends and growth variability in different seasons across diverse drought conditions in forested regions over northeastern China during the period 1982&ndash, 2015, using both remote sensing observations and in situ tree-ring measurements. We found clear seasonal divergence in tree growth trends during 1982&ndash, 2015, and the apparent increase was mainly observed in spring and autumn, attributed mainly to the increase in spring temperature and autumn solar radiation, respectively, but not in summer. The magnitudes of increasing trends in tree growth decrease with the increase of the multi-year average dryness index (MAI) in semi-arid areas (1.5 &lt, MAI &lt, 4.0) in all seasons. We further revealed that the interannual variability in tree growth was much larger in the semi-arid regions than in the humid and semi-humid regions in all seasons, and tree growth variability was significantly and negatively correlated with the variations in temperature and water deficit. Our findings improve our understanding of seasonal divergence in tree growth trends and provide new insights into spatial patterns in forest vulnerability in a warmer and drier climate.

Research suggests that students who are “metacognitively aware learners” demonstrate better academic performance (Shraw & Dennison, 1994; Md. Yunus & Ali, 2008). In this research, the metacognitive levels for two classes of differential equations students were studied. Students completed a survey adapted from the Metacognitive Awareness Inventory (MAI) (Shraw & Dennison, 1994) at the start of the course. The questions chosen from the MAI were aimed at three components concerning the students’ knowledge about their cognition: declarative knowledge, procedural knowledge, and conditional knowledge. Analysis shows student performance, as measured by the course grade, cannot be predicted by metacognitive awareness levels.

日本は顕著な高齢社会である．少子高齢化は，労働力の減少や経済成長の鈍化といった形で産業界に大きな影響を与えている．これは，日本の主要交通を担う鉄道事業者においても例外ではなく，各社は旅客輸送量の減少という問題への対応を迫られている．このような状況において，沿線を活性化し，利用者増加を図るには，情報技術を活用した画期的なサービスの提供や，沿線の魅力をより多くの人に伝えるための効果的・効率的な情報発信が求められる．本稿では，居住地決定に関わる要因や，決定に際して必要とされる情報について分析し，沿線への人口流入・定着を促す施策について考察した．

This paper presents an analysis of the integration between interferometric and intensity-offset tracking-based SAR remote sensing for landslide hazard mitigation in the Italian Alps. Despite the advantages of Synthetic Aperture Radar Interferometry (InSAR) methods for quantifying landslide deformation, some limitations remain. The temporal decorrelation, the 1-D Line Of Sight (LOS) observation restriction, the high velocity rate and the multi-directional movement properties make it difficult to monitor accurately complex landslides in areas covered by vegetation. Therefore, complementary and integrated approaches, such as offset tracking-based techniques, are needed to overcome these InSAR limitations for monitoring ground surface deformations. As sub-pixel offset tracking is highly sensitive to data spatial resolution, the latest generations of SAR sensors, such as TerraSAR-X and COSMO-SkyMed, open interesting perspective for a more accurate hazard assessment. In this paper, we consider high-resolution X-band data acquired by the COSMO-SkyMed (CSK) constellation for Permanent Scatterers Interferometry (PSI), Multi-Aperture Interferometry (MAI) and offset tracking processing. We analyze the offset tracking techniques considering area and feature-based matching algorithms to evaluate their applicability to CSK data by improving sub-pixel offset estimations. To this end, PSI and MAI are used for extracting LOS and azimuthal displacement components. Then, four well-known area-based and five feature-based matching algorithms (taken from computer vision) are applied to 16 X-band corner reflectors. Results show that offset estimation accuracy can be considerably improved up to less than 3% of the pixel size using the combination of the different feature-based detectors and descriptors. A sensitivity analysis of these techniques applied to CSK data to monitor complex landslides in the Italian Alps provides indications on advantages and disadvantages of each of them.

Advanced data analysis and visualization methodologies have played an important role in making surface electromyography both a valuable diagnostic methodology of neuromuscular disorders and a robust brain-machine interface, usable as a simple interface for prosthesis control, arm movement analysis, stiffness control, gait analysis, etc. But for diagnostic purposes, as well as for interfaces where the activation of single muscles is of interest, surface EMG suffers from severe crosstalk between deep and superficial muscle activation, making the reliable detection of the source of the signal, as well as reliable quantification of deeper muscle activation, prohibitively difficult. To address these issues we present a novel approach for processing surface electromyographic data. Our approach enables the reconstruction of 3D muscular activity location, making the depth of muscular activity directly visible. This is even possible when deep muscles are overlaid with superficial muscles, such as seen in the human forearm. The method, which we call imaging EMG (iEMG), is based on using the crosstalk between a sufficiently large number of surface electromyographic electrodes to reconstruct the 3D generating electrical potential distribution within a given area. Our results are validated by in vivo measurements of iEMG and ultrasound on the human forearm.

Le présent ouvrage est issu d'un colloque organisé à Lyon en janvier 2014; International audience; Mai-Juin 1940, prélude à l'effondrement de la IIIe République et au régime de Vichy, est la défaite militaire la plus traumatique de l'histoire de la France contemporaine. Elle a fait l'objet d'une abondante production historiographique, en France comme à l'étranger. Les conclusions sont généralement nuancées sur les raisons de l'effondrement, même si des désaccords subsistent entre historiens sur la possibilité d'une " histoire alternative ".Mais, à la différence des travaux sur le régime de Vichy, voire sur la Résistance, ces conclusions n'ont jamais pu vraiment s'acculturer dans la société française. La mémoire de 1940, peu chargée d'histoire, reste peuplée de lieux communs forgés pour certains dès 1940 et résumés par Louis-Ferdinand Céline dans son pamphlet Les Beaux draps : " Neuf mois de belote, six semaines de course à pied : l'armée Ladoumègue ".Des soldats lâches, au minimum peu combatifs, conduits par des chefs stupides ou incompétents ; tels sont présentés les faits dans les films de La 7e Compagnie. Le présent ouvrage, issu d'un colloque organisé à Lyon en janvier 2014, analyse cette faiblesse de la parole publique sur la défaite. Il étudie les différents canaux mémoriels (politiques, étatiques, associatifs, religieux, littéraires) qui ont participé dès 1940 à la constitution de cette " légende noire " qui a eu des incidences redoutables sur l'image du pays et sur " l'estime de soi " des Français.

Som sjanger kan 17.mai-talen sies å være en fremstilling av nasjonal identitet. Den er derfor et interessant uttrykk å lete etter tendenser i når det gjelder integrering av minoritetsgrupper. Oppgavens overordnede problemstilling er å undersøke hvordan inkluderes norske med minoritetsbakgrunn i 17.mai-taler holdt av ordførere i norske kommuner?

A validade preditiva da Avaliação do Movimento do Bebê (Movement Assessment of Infants - MAI), para detecção precoce de paralisia cerebral, foi analisada em 89 crianças brasileiras nascidas com idade gestacional < 32 semanas e peso < 1500g. O MAI foi aplicado aos 4 e 8 meses de idade corrigida e as crianças foram submetidas a avaliação neurológica entre 2 e 7 anos de idade. Foram calculadas estimativas de sensibilidade (0,61 a 1,0), especificidade (0,79 a 0,95), valor de predição positiva (0,48 a 0,73) e valor de predição negativa (0,79 a 1,0), aos 4 e 8 meses, para escores > 13 e > 10 pontos de risco. Os melhores índices preditivos foram obtidos aos 8 meses e para o ponto de corte > 13 pontos de risco. Um critério menos restritivo (> 10 pontos) pode ser útil para predição de transtornos da coordenação motora, na idade escolar.The predictive validity of the Movement Assessment of Infants (MAI) for the detection of cerebral palsy was analyzed in 89 Brazilian infants, born with gestational age < 32 weeks and weight < 1500g. The infants were assessed with the MAI at 4 and 8 months, corrected ages, and were submitted to a neurological evaluation between the ages 2 and 7 years old. Estimates of sensibility (0.61 - 1.0), specificity (0.79 - 0.95), positive predictive value (0.48 - 0.73) and negative predictive value (0.79 - 1.0) were calculated at 4 and 8 months, for risk points > 13 and > 10. The best predictive values were obtained at 8 months, with a cut off > 13 risk points. A less restrictive criteria (> 10 points) might be useful for the prediction of motor coordination problems at school age.

A validade preditiva da Avaliação do Movimento do Bebê (Movement Assessment of Infants - MAI), para detecção precoce de paralisia cerebral, foi analisada em 89 crianças brasileiras nascidas com idade gestacional < 32 semanas e peso < 1500g. O MAI foi aplicado aos 4 e 8 meses de idade corrigida e as crianças foram submetidas a avaliação neurológica entre 2 e 7 anos de idade. Foram calculadas estimativas de sensibilidade (0,61 a 1,0), especificidade (0,79 a 0,95), valor de predição positiva (0,48 a 0,73) e valor de predição negativa (0,79 a 1,0), aos 4 e 8 meses, para escores > 13 e > 10 pontos de risco. Os melhores índices preditivos foram obtidos aos 8 meses e para o ponto de corte > 13 pontos de risco. Um critério menos restritivo (> 10 pontos) pode ser útil para predição de transtornos da coordenação motora, na idade escolar. The predictive validity of the Movement Assessment of Infants (MAI) for the detection of cerebral palsy was analyzed in 89 Brazilian infants, born with gestational age < 32 weeks and weight < 1500g. The infants were assessed with the MAI at 4 and 8 months, corrected ages, and were submitted to a neurological evaluation between the ages 2 and 7 years old. Estimates of sensibility (0.61 - 1.0), specificity (0.79 - 0.95), positive predictive value (0.48 - 0.73) and negative predictive value (0.79 - 1.0) were calculated at 4 and 8 months, for risk points > 13 and > 10. The best predictive values were obtained at 8 months, with a cut off > 13 risk points. A less restrictive criteria (> 10 points) might be useful for the prediction of motor coordination problems at school age.