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Culicoides imicola is the main vector transmitting viruses causing animal diseases such as Bluetongue, African Horse Sickness, and Schmallenberg. It has become widely distributed, with reports from South Africa to southern Europe, and from western Africa to southern China. This study presents a global compendium of Culicoides imicola occurrence between 1943 and 2018, reflecting the most recently compiled and harmonized global dataset derived from peer-reviewed literature. The procedures used in producing the data, as well as the geo-coding methods, database management and technical validation procedures are described. The study provides an updated and comprehensive global database of C. imicola occurrence, consisting of 1 039 geo-coded records from 50 countries. The datasets can be used for risk mapping of the diseases transmitted by C. imicola as well as to develop the global habitat suitability for the vector. Measurement(s) publication • Disease Vector Technology Type(s) digital curation Factor Type(s) year • geographic location Sample Characteristic - Organism Culicoides imicola Sample Characteristic - Location Earth (planet) Machine-accessible metadata file describing the reported data: 10.6084/m9.figshare.9804509 [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The prevailing climatic conditions found in a region are the primary determinant of the suitability of that area to support pests and diseases. Pest risk assessment is the primary biosecurity tool used to assess that suitability, but the changing climatic conditions owing to greenhouse gas emissions are rarely considered. Future changes in temperature and rainfall patterns may make the environmental suitability of a region more or less favourable for existing populations and cause populations to move to other regions where those pests and diseases may not be established. Future projections of climate change are uncertain, which makes it challenging to incorporate climate change into pest risk analysis, but aspects of human psychology can help us think about how to communicate the risks within the constraints of those uncertainties more effectively. Here we review the broad trends, magnitude and uncertainties of climate change, and the interpretation of climate change scenarios, and make recommendations for appropriate framing and communication of the future risks posed by climate change within pest risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae) originates from the South American tropics but has become a major invasive pest of tomato and other Solanaceae crops worldwide. Agricultural protected facilities (APFs) such as greenhouses and plastic tunnels may provide thermal conditions that allow the survival of T. absoluta in temperate zones with cold winters. In this study, a CLIMEX model was used to investigate the dual effects of increasing use of APFs and climate warming on the potential distribution and seasonal dynamics of T. absoluta in China. Our model showed that the northern boundary for year-round population persistence in China, ignoring APFs, was approximately 30°N, covering about 21% of China's area suitable under current climate. The modelled suitable area increased to 31% and northern boundary for year-round population persistence shifted to 40°N in 2080 under global warming. When APF refuges are included, the potential suitable area was 78% under the current climate and 79% under global warming. This suggests that, in the future, the increasing use of APFs will increase the areas at risk of T. absoluta invasion significantly more than global warming because APFs effectively protect T. absoluta from harsh northern winters. In addition, vegetable production in surrounding open fields will be at risk of invasion during milder seasons when APFs are opened and T. absoluta can disperse. Therefore, the micro-climate of APFs should be considered as part of the invasion process, and Integrated Pest Management should be simultaneously implemented inside and outside APFs for the rational management T. absoluta. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The 'European' snail, Cochlicella acuta , is an invasive pest of crops in Australia. • A parasitoid fly, imported from France, has performed poorly as a biocontrol agent. • Molecular genetics suggests the pest originated from the Iberian Peninsula or Morocco. • Climates within the Australian distribution match closely with these same regions. • Searches for effective biological control agents should be focussed there. The conical snail, Cochlicella acuta , is a major introduced pest of grain crops in southern Australia. In particular, C. acuta aestivates on the heads and upper stalks of crop plants thus fouling grain harvests in late spring - early summer. Previous attempts to control this snail pest included the release, during the early 2000s, of parasitic flies (Sarcophaga villeneuveana) sourced from southern France, within the perceived native distribution of C. acuta. The flies established in southern Australia, but only in very low numbers, such that there was no significant reduction in the snail's pest status. Sequencing of the snail's COI and 16S mitochondrial genes has now identified three main maternal lineages within C. acuta , across its distribution in south-western Europe and Morocco. The 1st lineage was only found in north-eastern Spain (near the Pyrenees), throughout southern France and in northern Italy. Both the 2nd and 3rd lineages were found in the U.K., western France, northern and southern Spain, Portugal and Morocco. The 3rd lineage was also collected throughout eastern Spain and just into southern France (near the Pyrenees). All the C. acuta found in Australia belong to the 3rd lineage. Highest levels of genetic diversity in C. acuta were found in the 3rd lineage, in particular in Morocco. A plausible explanation for the poor performance of the biological control agent previously released to control C. acuta in Australia is a mismatch between snail host and selected parasitoid. A different biotype or sub-species of S. villeneuveana , or even a different parasitoid species altogether, that attacks the 3rd lineage of C. acuta in south-western Europe or Morocco, could prove to be a more effective biological control agent than the S. villeneuveana previously released from southern France. Climates in southern Spain, southern Portugal and northern Morocco also best match those areas in southern Australia where C. acuta is a pest, suggesting further searches for effective natural enemies should be focussed there. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global trade in fresh fruit and vegetables, intensification of human mobility, and climate change facilitate fruit fly (Diptera: Tephritidae) invasions. Life-history traits, environmental stress response, dispersal stress, and novel genetic admixtures contribute to their establishment and spread. Tephritids are among the most frequently intercepted taxa at ports of entry. In some countries, supported by the rules-based trade framework, a remarkable amount of biosecurity effort is being arrayed against the range expansion of tephritids. Despite this effort, fruit flies continue to arrive in new jurisdictions, sometimes triggering expensive eradication responses. Surprisingly, scant attention has been paid to biosecurity in the recent discourse about new multilateral trade agreements. Much of the available literature on managing tephritid invasions is focused on a limited number of charismatic (historically high-profile) species, and the generality of many patterns remains speculative. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The European wasp, Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae), is of Palaearctic origin, being native to Europe, northern Africa and Asia, and introduced into North America, Chile, Argentina, Iceland, Ascension Island, South Africa, Australia and New Zealand. Due to its polyphagous nature and scavenging behaviour, V. germanica threatens agriculture and silviculture, and negatively affects biodiversity, while its aggressive nature and venomous sting pose a health risk to humans. In areas with warmer winters and longer summers, queens and workers can survive the winter months, leading to the build-up of large nests during the following season; thereby increasing the risk posed by this species. To prevent or prepare for such unwanted impacts it is important to know where the wasp may be able to establish, either through natural spread or through introduction as a result of human transport. Distribution data from Argentina and Australia, and seasonal phenology data from Argentina were used to determine the potential distribution of V. germanica using CLIMEX modelling. In contrast to previous models, the influence of irrigation on its distribution was also investigated. Under a natural rainfall scenario, the model showed similarities to previous models. When irrigation is applied, dry stress is alleviated, leading to larger areas modelled climatically suitable compared with previous models, which provided a better fit with the actual distribution of the species. The main areas at risk of invasion by V. germanica include western USA, Mexico, small areas in Central America and in the north-western region of South America, eastern Brazil, western Russia, north-western China, Japan, the Mediterranean coastal regions of North Africa, and parts of southern and eastern Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The apple buprestid, Agrilus mali Matsumura, that was widespread in north-eastern China, was accidently introduced to the wild apple forest ecosystem in mountainous areas of Xinjiang, China. This invasive beetle feeds on domesticated apples and many species of Malus and presents a serious threat to ancestral apple germplasm sources and apple production worldwide. Estimating the potential area at risk of colonization by A. mali is crucial for instigating appropriate preventative management strategies, especially under global warming. We developed a CLIMEX model of A. mali to project this pest's potential distribution under current and future climatic scenarios in 2100 using CSIRO-Mk 3.0 GCM running the SRES A1B emissions scenario. Under current climate, A. mali could potentially invade neighbouring central Asia and eventually the mid-latitude temperate zone, and some subtropical areas and Pampas Steppe in the Southern Hemisphere. This potential distribution encompasses wild apples species, the ancestral germplasm for domesticated apples. With global warming, the potential distribution shifts to higher latitudes, with the potential range expanding slightly, though the overall suitability could decline in both hemispheres. In 2100, the length of the growing season of this pest in the mid-latitude temperature zone could increase by 1–2 weeks, with higher growth rates in most sites compared with current climate in mid-latitudes, at least in China. Our work highlights the need for strategies to prevent the spread of this pest, managing the threats to wild apples in Tian Shan Mountain forests in Central Asia, and commercial apple production globally. We discuss practical management tactics to reduce the spread of this pest and mitigate its impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Spodoptera eridania (Stoll), a polyphagous lepidopteran pest from the Americas, has recently invaded western and central Africa. Like its congeners, S. eridania has developed pesticide resistance. The rapid global spread and impacts of Spodoptera frugiperda (J.E. Smith) has raised concerns about whether S. eridania is set to do the same. Here we fit a CLIMEX niche model for S. eridania and apply a climate change scenario for 2050 to investigate the sensitivity of the pest threat. We find that S. eridania can potentially expand its range throughout the tropics and into the sub-tropics, threatening a range of important commercial and subsistence crops. An important feature of the pest threat posed by S. eridania is the extent of its ephemeral habitat during warmer months. Modelled climatic changes will mostly expand this species potential range poleward by around 200 km by 2050, indicating a moderate sensitivity. These areas of emerging potential expansion are mostly into subtropical climates, supporting diverse cropping systems, including at risk crops beans, groundnut, potato, soybeans, tomato and sweet potato. The potential distribution of S. eridania in the Amazon basin and the southern boundary of the Sahara Desert appear set to contract substantially due to increasing heat stress. While it may not be as invasive as some of its congeners, nor acquire pesticide resistance as readily, S. eridania does have some of these traits, and the current and emerging pest threat posed by this moth deserves closer attention, especially in relation to intercontinental phytosanitary measures to slow its spread. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Simple Summary: Bean leaf beetles (Ootheca spp.) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) are a major pest of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.) in Africa, attacking the roots, leaves, floral parts, and young pods, and reducing grain yields significantly. However, there is no comprehensive program for managing bean leaf beetles. In Uganda, farmers typically try to reduce pest impacts by delaying bean crop sowing, and to a lesser extent, using insecticides, but there is no information on the impact of delayed planting and insecticide application on bean leaf beetles. We conducted a study to assess the effects of planting timing and insecticide spray regimes on bean leaf beetle abundance, foliar damage, and common bean grain yield in three agro-ecological zones. Bean leaf beetle abundance was highest in mid-planting compared to late and early planting, while foliar damage was highest in late planting in two of the three agro-ecological zones. However, marketable grain yield was highest in early-planted plots in all three agro-ecological zones. Insecticide application reduced foliar damage and increased marketable grain yield, with a combination of soil drench and foliar spray resulting in significantly less foliar damage and higher grain yield. Marketable grain yield was higher when insecticides were combined with early planting in all agro-ecological zones. Bean leaf beetles (Ootheca spp.) (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae) are one of Africa's most important pests of the common bean (Phaseolus vulgaris L.). Roots, leaves, floral parts, and young pods are all attacked, leading to a considerable loss in grain yield. In Uganda, there are no comprehensive prescribed management strategies for bean leaf beetles, but farmers typically try to control the pest by delaying bean crop sowing, and to a lesser extent, using insecticides. Although farmers have consistently implemented the two approaches, there is no information on the effects of the approaches in Uganda. To assess the impact of planting timing and insecticide spray regimes on bean leaf beetle populations, concomitant foliar damage, and grain yield, we set up trials in three agro-ecological zones with known presence of the beetles during the second rainy season of 2016 (2016) and the first rainy season of 2017 (2017). The first planting, coinciding with early planting, was conducted within one week after the onset of rains. The second planting, coinciding with mid planting, followed two weeks later, while the third planting, considered late planting in this study, was conducted one month after the second planting. A foliar application of cypermethrin commencing at 7 days after emergence (DAE), 14 DAE, 21 DAE, 28 DAE, and 35 DAE; a soil drench of imidacloprid at planting combined with a foliar spray starting at 7 DAE; and an untreated control were among the insecticide spray regimes evaluated. Higher bean leaf beetle abundance was recorded from mid-planting, while higher foliar damage was recorded from late planting in two of the three agro-ecological zones. However, higher marketable grain yield was recorded from early planting in all agro-ecological zones, suggesting that delayed planting may not be beneficial. Insecticide application reduced foliar damage and increased marketable grain yield, with a combination of soil drench and foliar spray resulting in much less foliar damage and, as a result, higher grain yield. However, this did not result in economic benefits. Furthermore, marketable grain yield was higher when insecticide spray regimes were combined with early planting in all agro-ecological zones during both seasons. Our findings suggest that the common bean should be planted early and that the control of the bean leaf beetle should target both the adults and the juvenile stages in the soil. Therefore, there is a need for farmers to be able to access less-expensive soil treatments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive species cause significant damage to economies, human health, biodiversity and society in general. Social insects are among the most successful invaders, often becoming major pests when they establish outside their native range. Once established they can be difficult to eradicate or contain, and classical biological control is usually the only feasible management option. Successful classical biological control programs must be both technically and economically feasible. A technically feasible program — where a biological control agent establishes, spreads and suppresses the growth and spread of the pest — is a necessary pre-requisite for economic feasibility, where benefits and costs of a biological control program are subsequently assessed. We investigate whether the highly invasive eusocial wasp Vespula germanica (Fabricius) (Hymenoptera: Vespidae) could be a candidate for a renewed biological control management program in Australia, where it established almost 60 years ago. The potential impacts of V. germanica on horticulture, apiculture, tourism, outdoor social activities, and biodiversity are estimated to be AUD 2.6 billion over 50 years, should V. germanica continue to spread unhindered. We found median benefits of AUD145 million to AUD385 million, depending on effectiveness and growth rates of the biocontrol, with non-market benefits exceeding market benefits by 50%. • Biological control is often the only option to control widespread pest invasions. • Pre-screening biological control agents through modelling can save time and money. • We develop a simulation model for biocontrol of an invasive social insect. • The model is calibrated and validated with data from south-eastern Australia. • The model calculates economic feasibility of a biological control program. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Globally, pitch canker and Dothistroma needle blight are two of the most important diseases of pine species caused, respectively, by the pathogens Fusarium circinatum Nirenberg & O'Donnell and Dothistroma spp. (Dothistroma septosporum (Dorog.) Morelet and Dothistroma pini Hulbary). The potential distributions of these two diseases under current global climate have previously been modelled and contrast strongly with each other. In this study, we used the process-based niche model CLIMEX to estimate the potential distribution of both diseases in the 2080s under six scenarios that include three contrasting global climate models, each with moderate and high CO2 emissions. For both diseases, under the future climate scenarios, there was a global reduction in the potentially suitable area. Among the three global climate models, this reduction ranged from 11% to 22% for Dothistroma needle blight and from 39% to 58% for pitch canker. The projected potential ranges of both diseases were significantly reduced for Africa, South America, and Australia. In Asia and North America, substantial reductions in potential area were generally projected for pitch canker, while little change to moderate levels of expansion were projected for Dothistroma needle blight. For Europe and New Zealand, expansion of suitable climate was projected under all climate change scenarios for both diseases. Mondialement, le chancre résineux et la brûlure des aiguilles sont deux des plus importantes maladies des espèces de pin causées respectivement par Fusarium circinatum Nirenberg & O'Donnell et Dothistroma spp. (Dothistroma septosporum (Dorog.) Morelet et Dothistroma pini Hulbary). La répartition potentielle de chacune de ces deux maladies dans les conditions climatiques mondiales actuelles a déjà été modélisée et elles diffèrent fortement l'une de l'autre. Dans cette étude, nous avons utilisé le modèle orienté processus CLIMEX basé sur les niches écologiques pour estimer la répartition potentielle des deux maladies dans les années 2080 selon six scénarios qui incluent trois modèles climatiques mondiaux et qui prévoient dans chaque cas des émissions soit modérées, soit élevées de CO2. Les scénarios climatiques futurs entraînaient une réduction à l'échelle mondiale des zones potentiellement propices aux deux maladies. Selon le modèle climatique mondial utilisé, cette réduction variait de 11 % à 22 % pour la brûlure des aiguilles et de 39 % à 58 % pour le chancre résineux. L'aire de répartition potentielle projetée des deux maladies était réduite de façon importante en Afrique, en Amérique du Sud et en Australie. En Asie et en Amérique du Nord, des réductions substantielles des zones potentielles étaient généralement prédites pour le chancre résineux tandis qu'une situation allant de stable à une expansion modérée était prédite pour la brûlure des aiguilles. Une expansion du climat favorable aux deux maladies était prédite en Europe et en Nouvelle-Zélande quelque soit le scénario de changement climatique. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Native to the Americas, the invasive Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm; FAW) was reported in West Africa in 2016, followed by its chronological detection across the Old World and the hypothesis of an eastward Asia expansion. We explored population genomic signatures of American and Old World FAW and identified 12 maternal mitochondrial DNA genome lineages across the invasive range. 870 high-quality nuclear single nucleotide polymorphic DNA markers identified five distinct New World population clusters, broadly reflecting FAW native geographical ranges and the absence of host-plant preferences. We identified unique admixed Old World populations, and admixed and non-admixed Asian FAW individuals, all of which suggested multiple introductions underpinning the pest's global spread. Directional gene flow from the East into eastern Africa was also detected, in contrast to the west-to-east spread hypothesis. Our study demonstrated the potential of population genomic approaches via international partnership to address global emerging pest threats and biosecurity challenges. This population genomics study identifies the complex multiple introduction history of Spodoptera frugiperda (fall armyworm) from the Americas, into Africa and Asia. This provides new insight into the 'east-to-west' directionality of gene flow, and suggests ample genomic exchange at the nuclear level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren), the native budworm, is an important highly polyphagous pest that has caused serious damage on a wide variety of crops in Australia. In Australia, its range overlaps that of its congener, Helicoverpa armigera (Hübner), a notorious invasive pest globally. We used CLIMEX, a bioclimatic niche modelling software package, to estimate the potential geographical distribution of H. punctigera under current and future climates (A1B scenario). Under both current and future climate conditions, the model indicates that H. punctigera could establish throughout the tropics and subtropics. Comparing the potential distributions under each climate scenario revealed that in the future its potential distribution is likely to shift poleward and into higher altitudes, into areas that are currently too cold as observed in the South of Brazil, Europe, North America, South East Asia, and South Pacific Islands including New Zealand. The projected potential distribution can inform pre- and post-border biosecurity strategies for the management of this pest in each country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Citrus blackfly, Aleurocanthus woglumi Ashby (Hemiptera: Aleyrodidae), is an important agricultural quarantine pest, causing substantial economic losses to citrus and many other cultivated crops. Aleurocanthus woglumi is found in tropical and subtropical regions but is presently unknown in Europe and the Mediterranean Basin. We used CLIMEX to model the potential distribution of A. woglumi under an historical climate scenario (centred on 1995), including a spatially explicit irrigation scenario. We found that A. woglumi could potentially invade the Mediterranean Basin, and south-east Asia, including Australia. There is potential for it to invade most of sub-Saharan Africa. Irrigation is revealed as an important habitat factor affecting the potential distribution of A. woglumi, increasing its potential range by 53% in Asia. Under a future climate scenario for 2050, its potential distribution increased across all continents except Africa, where potential range expansion due to relaxation of cold stresses was limited, and was offset by range decrease due to lethal heat or dry stress. As global climates warm, Europe is likely to face a substantial increase in the area at risk of establishment by A. woglumi (almost doubling under the 2050 irrigation scenario). The biosecurity threat from A. woglumi is significant in current citrus production areas and poses a challenge to biosecurity managers and risk analysts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The semiaquatic weed Mimosa pigra has negative impacts on biodiversity, fishing, crop and livestock production, and tourism in most places where it has been introduced, established and proliferated. Many of the ecological impacts are well known, but its impacts on rural livelihoods are less well documented, especially in Africa. We mapped the distribution of M. pigra in eastern and southern Africa, and then compared that with its potential distribution based on an ecoclimatic niche model. Household interviews were conducted to assess the impacts of this weed on local livelihoods. Mimosa pigra was found to be invasive in western Ethiopia, around the shores of Lake Victoria and Lake Tanganyika, and along the Tanzanian coastline, northern Malawi, parts of Mozambique and along the Kafue River and in the Barotse floodplain on the Zambezi River in Zambia. According to respondents living along the Kafue River floodplains in Zambia, it has a negative impact on biodiversity, wildlife, livestock, crop production, fishing and mobility. Dense stands prevented the movement of people and livestock, limiting access to croplands, grazing lands and fishing areas. Fish catches have been reduced and fishing equipment damaged. All respondents agreed that their livelihood options would be considerably enhanced if M. pigra was removed from the landscape. Based on its current and potential impact, we therefore recommend that an integrated management plan be developed and implemented, including the appropriate use of biological control agents to reduce the negative impacts of the weed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • The leaf-feeding beetle, Cassida rubiginosa was introduced into New Zealand to control Cirsium arvense (Californian thistle) but its impact has been sporadic. • Climate niche models reveal that New Zealand is variably suitable climatically for the agent and the weed although everywhere relatively less suitable for the beetle. • The sporadic impact of the beetle is unrelated to the modelled climate suitability. • Alternative explanations for the sporadic impact include absence of suitable overwintering habitat, predation, and incompatible thistle control operations. The leaf-feeding beetle, Cassida rubiginosa , was introduced into New Zealand from Europe in 2007 as a biological control agent for Cirsium arvense (Californian thistle) and is now widely distributed. To determine the extent to which geographically variable climate might explain its observed sporadic impact, we developed a climate-niche model for each of the species using CLIMEX. The models reveal that the climate throughout most of New Zealand is variably suitable for both species, although everywhere relatively less suitable for the beetle. However, we found no evidence that this climate suitability bias favouring the thistle explains the sporadic impact of the beetle. First, 64 geographically separate beetle populations classified by field observers according to their impact on the thistle ('none', n = 29; 'low', n = 22; 'high', n = 13) showed no relationship with the modelled climate suitability (Ecoclimatic Index) of their locations for either the beetle or the thistle. Second, the two models reveal a similar climate suitability bias favouring the thistle throughout much of the species' 'eco-climatic suitability space' in their native range (Eurasia) where the beetle is a widespread natural enemy of the thistle. Hypothetical explanations for the sporadic impact of the beetle in New Zealand are explored, including lack of suitable overwintering habitat, predation, and incompatible thistle control operations. We conclude that in general, climate suitability, while a necessary condition, is alone insufficient for the success of a weed biological control program, and that non-climatic habitat factors may often explain spatially patchy impacts of natural enemies such as C. rubiginosa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Several decades of research on invasive marine species have yielded a broad understanding of the nature of species invasion mechanisms and associated threats globally. However, this is not true of the Arctic, a region where ongoing climatic changes may promote species invasion. Here, we evaluated risks associated with non-indigenous propagule loads discharged with ships' ballast water to the high-Arctic archipelago, Svalbard, as a case study for the wider Arctic., We sampled and identified transferred propagules using traditional and DNA barcoding techniques. We then assessed the suitability of the Svalbard coast for non-indigenous species under contemporary and future climate scenarios using ecophysiological models based on critical temperature and salinity reproductive thresholds., Ships discharging ballast water in Svalbard carried high densities of zooplankton (mean 1522 ± 335 SE individuals m−3), predominately comprised of indigenous species. Ballast water exchange did not prevent non-indigenous species introduction. Non-indigenous coastal species were present in all except one of 16 ballast water samples (mean 144 ± 67 SE individuals m−3), despite five of the eight ships exchanging ballast water en route., Of a total of 73 taxa, 36 species including 23 non-indigenous species were identified. Of those 23, sufficient data permitted evaluation of the current and future colonization potential for eight widely known invaders. With the exception of one of these species, modelled suitability indicated that the coast of Svalbard is unsuitable presently; under the 2100 Representative Concentration Pathway ( RCP) 8·5 climate scenario, however, modelled suitability will favour colonization for six species., Synthesis and applications. We show that current ballast water management practices do not prevent non-indigenous species from being transferred to the Arctic. Consequences of these shortcomings will be shipping-route dependent, but will likely magnify over time: our models indicate future conditions will favour the colonization of non-indigenous species Arctic-wide. Invasion threats will be greatest where shipping transfers organisms across biogeographic realms, and for these shipping routes ballast water treatment technologies may be required to prevent impacts. Our results also highlight critical gaps in our understanding of ballast water management efficacy and prioritization. Thereby, our study provides an agenda for research and policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Farming systems frameworks such as the Agricultural Production Systems simulator (APSIM) represent fluxes through the soil, plant and atmosphere of the system well, but do not generally consider the biotic constraints that function within the system. We designed a method that allowed population models built in DYMEX to interact with APSIM. The simulator engine component of the DYMEX population-modelling platform was wrapped within an APSIM module allowing it to get and set variable values in other APSIM models running in the simulation. A rust model developed in DYMEX is used to demonstrate how the developing rust population reduces the crop's green leaf area. The success of the linking process is seen in the interaction of the two models and how changes in rust population on the crop's leaves feedback to the APSIM crop modifying the growth and development of the crop's leaf area. This linking of population models to simulate pest populations and biophysical models to simulate crop growth and development increases the complexity of the simulation, but provides a tool to investigate biotic constraints within farming systems and further moves APSIM towards being an agro-ecological framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Extreme risks are challenging to learn from, prepare for and protect against, and they invite the development of new approaches to complement existing methods of risk management. We describe a systematic ex ante approach to support the strategic preparedness of risk management and apply it to a biosecurity case study. Our framework integrates a war-game model and a structured decision making approach. The model provides interactive maps that help stakeholders in visualizing the economic impacts of the extreme risk under different management scenarios, and it facilitates adaptive management by translating science-based results into stakeholder perspectives. The structured decision making approach not only offers an analytical structure to organize the multiple objectives of risk management, but also functions as a platform for group deliberation among alternative courses of management action with uncertain consequences. We found that this integration helped stakeholders develop a better understanding of the complexities and interconnectedness of the extreme risk management and reached a consensus regarding the most preferred management option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Interest in biofuels is increasing in Australia due to volatile and rising oil prices, the need to reduce GHG emissions, and the recent introduction of a price on carbon. The seeds of Pongamia ( Millettia pinnata) contain oils rich in C18:1 fatty acid, making it useful for the manufacture of biodiesel and other liquid fuels. Preliminary assessments of growth and seed yield in Australia have been promising. However, there is a pressing need to synthesise practical experience and existing fragmented research and to use this to underpin a well-founded and co-ordinated research strategy to support industry development, including better management of the risks associated with investment. This comprehensive review identifies opportunities for Pongamia in Australia and provides a snapshot of what is already known and the risks, uncertainties, and challenges based on published research, expert knowledge, and industry experience. We conclude that whilst there are major gaps in fundamental understanding of the limitations to growth of Pongamia in Australia, there is sufficient evidence indicating the potential of Pongamia as a feedstock for production of biofuel to warrant investment into a structured research and development program over the next decade. We identify ten critical research elements and propose a comprehensive research approach that links molecular level genetic research, paddock scale agronomic studies, landscape scale investigations, and new production systems and value chains into a range of aspects of sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim Investigate the relative abilities of different bioclimatic models and data sets to project species ranges in novel environments utilizing the natural experiment in biogeography provided by Australian Acacia species. Location Australia, South Africa. Methods We built bioclimatic models for Acacia cyclops and Acacia pycnantha using two discriminatory correlative models (M axE nt and Boosted Regression Trees) and a mechanistic niche model (CLIMEX). We fitted models using two training data sets: native-range data only ('restricted') and all available global data excluding South Africa ('full'). We compared the ability of these techniques to project suitable climate for independent records of the species in South Africa. In addition, we assessed the global potential distributions of the species to projected climate change. Results All model projections assessed against their training data, the South African data and globally were statistically significant. In South Africa and globally, the additional information contained in the full data set generally improved model sensitivity, but at the expense of increased modelled prevalence, particularly in extrapolation areas for the correlative models. All models projected some climatically suitable areas in South Africa not currently occupied by the species. At the global scale, widespread and biologically unrealistic projections by the correlative models were explained by open-ended response curves, a problem which was not always addressed by broader background climate space or by the extra information in the full data set. In contrast, the global projections for CLIMEX were more conservative. Projections into 2070 indicated a polewards shift in climate suitability and a decrease in model interpolation area. Main conclusions Our results highlight the importance of carefully interpreting model projections in novel climates, particularly for correlative models. Much work is required to ensure bioclimatic models performed in a robust and ecologically plausible manner in novel climates. We explore reasons for variations between models and suggest methods and techniques for future improvements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Interactions between biological control agents and how they impact on their invasive plant hosts have received little research attention. This study examined the individual and combined effects of the rust fungus Puccinia myrsiphylli (Thuem.) Wint. and an undescribed leafhopper (Tribe Erythroneurini, formerly referred to as Zygina sp.) introduced for the biological control of the invasive plant bridal creeper (Asparagus asparagoides (L.) Druce) in Australia. Bridal creeper is a geophyte with extensive rhizomes and tubers from which climbing foliage is produced annually. The response of individual bridal creeper plants following exposure to the agents was measured in exclusion experiments in a glasshouse (using cages) and in the field (using pesticides). In the glasshouse experiment, the two agents acting together had an additive impact on all growth parameters measured, except the above-ground biomass for which an effect equivalent to that caused by the rust fungus alone was observed. The agents acted synergistically in reducing the relative growth rate of rhizome length, tuber number and tuber biomass. Depletion of storage organs occurred in treatments comprising the rust fungus solely or both agents. While phytotoxicity occurred in treatments involving insecticide applications in the field experiment, results from the other treatments corresponded with those of the glasshouse experiment. In both experiments, leafhopper damage decreased as infection by the rust fungus increased. This study provides additional evidence of the potential gains to be made from deploying multiple biological control agents where they can partition the target resources in space and/or time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: A prediction for the onset of a summer diapause in the eggs of the redlegged earth mite, Halotydeus destructor, was developed for Australia. In this species diapause eggs pass the summer in the cadavers of adult female mites. Adult female mites were collected for several weeks from pastures in spring at 18 sites in south-western Australia and dissected to determine the timing of the production of diapause eggs. Some sites were sampled for several years between 1990 and 1997. A model was developed to predict the time for onset of diapause. The week at which 90% of eggs were in diapause was predicted best by daylength (80.1% of the variability), then by duration of the long-term plant growing season (10.4%, of variability), leaving 9.5% due to other factors. A single chemical spray in spring 2 weeks before the production of 90% diapause eggs resulted in 99% fewer mites present in autumn 7–8 months later at three sites. The timing of the spring spray was the factor leading to successful control. This model was tested at 17 sites across the whole geographical distribution of the redlegged earth mite in Australia between 1998 and 2001. The observed week of 90% diapause was within 1 week of the predicted week on 81% of occasions, and 2 weeks earlier on 15% of occasions. A database was created for the predicted date of onset of 90% diapause for the whole distribution of the redlegged earth mite in southern Australia on a 10km2 grid. Australian farmers are using this for timing a spring spray to control mites in the following autumn. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

In Australia, macadamia orchards are attacked by four main insect pest groups. Management and control of three of these key pests currently relies on broad-spectrum insecticides whose long-term future is questionable. Of the 23 insecticides registered for use in macadamia in Australia, 19 face issues affecting their availability and 12 are presently not approved in the EU, the USA or Canada. These international markets may refuse produce that does not adhere to their own insecticide use standards, hence Australian produce may be excluded from market access. Many of the potential replacement integrated pest management methods of pest control are generally considered less effective by the industry and have not been adopted. There are 17 insect pest groups identified by the industry, any of which have potential to become major problems if broad-spectrum insecticide options become unavailable. Thirteen pest groups need urgent attention as they are at risk of losing current effective control methods, and no replacement solutions have yet been developed. The lag period for research and development to identify new chemical and biological control solutions means there is now an urgent need for the macadamia industry to craft a strategy for sustainable pest management for each pest. Critically, this industry strategy needs to address the vulnerabilities identified in this paper, identify potential solutions for any cases of market failure and consider funding mechanisms to address these gaps. On economic and sustainability grounds, potential biological control options should be explored, especially in cases where insecticide control options are vulnerable. © 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry., (© 2024 The Authors. Pest Management Science published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Society of Chemical Industry.)

Global climate changes undermine the effectiveness of 'set and forget' phytosanitary regulations. Uncertainties in future greenhouse gas emission profiles render it impossible to accurately forecast future climate, thus limiting the ability to make long-term biosecurity policy decisions. Agile adaptive biosecurity frameworks are necessary to address these climatic uncertainties and to effectively manage current and emerging threats. This paper provides opinions on these issues and presents a case study focusing on the threats posed by Aleurocanthus woglumi (citrus blackfly) to Europe. It delves into the biology of the species, its preferred hosts, and how climate change could affect its spread. Utilizing a bioclimatic niche model, the paper estimates the potential distribution of A. woglumi in Europe under recent historical and medium-term future conditions, revealing a potential expansion of its range into higher elevations and more northern regions by the year 2050. The main aim is to leverage the results to showcase the system's sensitivity to likely emission scenarios, essentially stress-testing for potential emerging threats to biosecurity policies and phytosanitary regulations. The results underscore the significance of considering global change factors in pest risk assessment and phytosanitary regulations for effective risk mitigation. Consequently, adaptive biosecurity measures are essential, encompassing horizon scanning, enhanced targeted surveillance, periodic updates of risk assessments, and adjustments to regulations. For instance, biosecurity risk management could involve establishing a set of trigger conditions to prompt updates of risk assessments, such as identifying a zone where the confirmed establishment of a pest signifies a significant change in the pest risk profile. For jurisdictions containing areas modeled as being climatically suitable under historical climates or future climate scenarios, we caution against importing untreated host materials from regions that are likely to become suitable habitats for A. woglumi in the future. Moreover, it is important to consider both present and future climate change scenarios when making decisions to effectively address the threats posed by invasive species. In the case of highly impactful invasives, investing in preemptive biological control measures may prove to be a prudent choice., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The author declares no conflict of interest., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

The species distributions migration poleward and into higher altitudes in a warming climate is especially concerning for economically important insect pest species, as their introduction can potentially occur in places previously considered unsuitable for year-round survival. We explore the expansion of the climatically suitable areas for a horticultural pest, the Mediterranean fruit fly (medfly) Ceratitis capitata (Diptera, Tephritidae), with an emphasis on Europe and California. We reviewed and refined a published CLIMEX model for C. capitata, taking into consideration new records in marginal locations, with a particular focus on Europe. To assess the model fit and to aid in interpreting the meaning of the new European distribution records, we used a time series climate dataset to explore the temporal patterns of climate suitability for C. capitata from 1970 to 2019. At selected bellwether sites in Europe, we found statistically significant trends in increasing climate suitability, as well as a substantial northward expansion in the modelled potential range. In California, we also found a significant trend of northward and altitudinal expansion of areas suitable for C. capitata establishment. These results provide further evidence of climate change impacts on species distributions and the need for innovative responses to increased invasion threats., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Fungal plant pathogens are of economic and ecological importance to global agriculture and natural ecosystems. Long-distance atmospheric dispersal of fungal spores (LAD) can pose threats to agricultural and native vegetation lands. An understanding of such patterns of fungal spore dispersal and invasion pathways can provide valuable insights into plant protection. Spore traits affect their dispersal abilities. We propose a general trait-based framework for modelling LAD to reveal dispersal patterns and pathways, and assess subsequent threats of arrival (TOA) quantitatively in the context of biosecurity. To illustrate the framework, we present a study of Australia and its surrounding land masses. The overall dispersal pattern covered almost the entire continent of Australia. Fungal spores in the size class of 10 and 20 µm (aerodynamic diameter) posed the greatest TOA. Our study shows the effects of morphological traits on these potential TOA, and how they varied between source regions, size classes, and seasons. Our framework revealed spore dispersal patterns and pathways. It also facilitates comparisons of spatio-temporal dispersal dynamics among fungal classes, gaining insights into atmospheric long-distance dispersal of fungi as a whole, and provides a basis for assessing fungal pest threats in potential source regions based on easily measured spore characteristics., (© 2021 CSIRO New Phytologist © 2021 New Phytologist Foundation.)

Projected climate changes are thought to promote emerging infectious diseases, though to date, evidence linking climate changes and such diseases in plants has not been available. Cassava is perhaps the most important crop in Africa for smallholder farmers. Since the late 1990's there have been reports from East and Central Africa of pandemics of begomoviruses in cassava linked to high abundances of whitefly species within the Bemisia tabaci complex. We used CLIMEX, a process-oriented climatic niche model, to explore if this pandemic was linked to recent historical climatic changes. The climatic niche model was corroborated with independent observed field abundance of B. tabaci in Uganda over a 13-year time-series, and with the probability of occurrence of B. tabaci over 2 years across the African study area. Throughout a 39-year climate time-series spanning the period during which the pandemics emerged, the modelled climatic conditions for B. tabaci improved significantly in the areas where the pandemics had been reported and were constant or decreased elsewhere. This is the first reported case where observed historical climate changes have been attributed to the increase in abundance of an insect pest, contributing to a crop disease pandemic.

Chilo partellus is a major crop pest in Asia and Africa, and has recently spread to the Mediterranean region. Knowledge of its potential distribution can inform biosecurity policies aimed at limiting its further spread and efforts to reduce its impact in areas that are already invaded. Three models of the potential distribution of this insect have been published, each with significant shortcomings. We re-parameterized an existing CLIMEX model to address some parameter inconsistencies and to improve the fit to the known distribution of C. partellus . The resulting model fits the known distribution better than previous models, highlights additional risks in equatorial regions and reduces modelled risks in wet and extremely dry regions. We bring new insights into the role of irrigation in the potential spread of this invasive insect and compare its potential distribution with the present known distribution of its hosts. We also distinguish regions that are suitable for supporting persistent populations from those that may be at risk from ephemeral populations during favourable seasons. We present one of the first demonstrations of a new capability in CLIMEX to automatically estimate parameter sensitivity and model uncertainty. Our CLIMEX model highlights the substantial invasion risk posed by C. partellus to cropping regions in the Americas, Australia, China, Europe, New Zealand and West Africa. Its broad host range and reported impacts suggest that it should be a pest of significant concern to biosecurity agencies in these presently uninvaded regions.

Biosecurity agencies need robust bioeconomic tools to help inform policy and allocate scarce management resources. They need to estimate the potential for each invasive alien species (IAS) to create negative impacts, so that relative and absolute comparisons can be made. Using pine processionary moth (Thaumetopoea pityocampa sensu lato) as an example, these needs were met by combining species niche modelling, dispersal modelling, host impact and economic modelling. Within its native range (the Mediterranean Basin and adjacent areas), T. pityocampa causes significant defoliation of pines and serious urticating injuries to humans. Such severe impacts overseas have fuelled concerns about its potential impacts, should it be introduced to New Zealand. A stochastic bioeconomic model was used to estimate the impact of PPM invasion in terms of pine production value lost due to a hypothetical invasion of New Zealand by T. pityocampa. The bioeconomic model combines a semi-mechanistic niche model to develop a climate-related damage function, a climate-related forest growth model, and a stochastic spread model to estimate the present value (PV) of an invasion. Simulated invasions indicate that Thaumetopoea pityocampa could reduce New Zealand's merchantable and total pine stem volume production by 30%, reducing forest production by between NZ$1,550 M to NZ$2,560 M if left untreated. Where T. pityocampa is controlled using aerial application of an insecticide, projected losses in PV were reduced, but still significant (NZ$30 M to NZ$2,210 M). The PV estimates were more sensitive to the efficacy of the spray program than the potential rate of spread of the moth. Our novel bioeconomic method provides a refined means of estimating potential impacts of invasive alien species, taking into account climatic effects on asset values, the potential for pest impacts, and pest spread rates.

Two sex pheromone components of the gum leaf skeletonizer, Uraba lugens (Lepidoptera: Nolidae), recently established in New Zealand, were identified. Gas chromatography (GC) electroantennographic detection analyses of female pheromone gland extracts gave three compounds that consistently elicited antennal responses. Chemical analyses, using GC and GC-mass spectrometry, in conjunction with 4-methyl-1,2,4-triazoline-3,5-dione and dimethyldisulfide derivatizations, identified these compounds as (10E,12Z)-hexadecadien-1-yl acetate (E10,Z12-16:Ac), (10E,12Z)-hexadecadien-1-ol (E10,Z12-16:OH), and (Z)-11-hexadecen-1-yl acetate (Z11-16:Ac). A trapping trial in Queensland, Australia, in 2002, indicated that a blend of the two major components E10,Z12-16:Ac and E10,Z12-16:OH could attract gum leaf skeletonizer males. In the same trial, E10,Z12-16:Ac alone trapped large numbers of an unidentified nolid, Nola spp. Further trials in Auckland, New Zealand established that these two components were sufficient and necessary for trap catch of males; adding minor gland components, (10E,12E)-hexadecadien-1-yl acetate (E10,E12-16:Ac), Z11-16:Ac, or octadecan-1-ol (18:OH), to the two-component lure did not result in increased trap catches. Behavioral observations and gland analyses of the Auckland population revealed that female moths begin calling soon after emergence, with peak calling and pheromone production occurring 7 hr into the scotophase. Analysis of gland extract at two-hourly intervals during the first activity period showed that the ratio of E10,Z12-16:Ac to E10,Z12-16:OH (mean of 86: 14, respectively) and pheromone titer were fairly constant. No qualitative or quantitative differences in pheromone components were detected between gland extracts from Tasmanian univoltine and Auckland bivoltine populations of U. lugens.