201. Predicting risk of recurrence after resection of stage I intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma.
- Author
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Kawashima, Jun, Sahara, Kota, Shen, Feng, Guglielmi, Alfredo, Aldrighetti, Luca, Weiss, Matthew, Bauer, Todd W., Alexandrescu, Sorin, Poultsides, George A., Maithel, Shishir K., Marques, Hugo P., Martel, Guillaume, Pulitano, Carlo, Cauchy, François, Koerkamp, B. Groot, Matsuyama, Ryusei, Endo, Itaru, and Pawlik, Timothy M.
- Abstract
Early-stage intrahepatic cholangiocarcinoma (ICC) is often an indication of curative-intent resection. Although patients with early-stage ICC generally have a better prognosis than individuals with advanced ICC, the incidence and risk factors of recurrence after early-stage ICC remain unclear. A multi-institutional database was used to identify patients who underwent surgery between 2000 and 2018 for ICC with pathologically confirmed stage I disease. Cox regression analysis was used to identify clinicopathological factors associated with recurrence, and an online prediction model was developed and validated. Of 430 patients diagnosed with stage I ICC, approximately one-half of patients (n = 221, 51.4%) experienced recurrence after curative-intent resection. Among patients with a recurrence, most (n = 188, 85.1%) experienced it within 12 months. On multivariable analysis, carcinoembryonic antigen (hazard ratio [HR], 1.011; 95% CI, 1.004–1.018), systemic immune-inflammation index (HR, 1.036; 95% CI, 1.019–1.056), no lymph nodes evaluated (HR, 1.851; 95% CI, 1.276–2.683), and tumor size (HR, 1.101; 95% CI, 1.053–1.151) were associated with greater hazards of recurrence. A predictive model that included these weighted risk factors demonstrated excellent prognostic discrimination in the test (12-month recurrence-free survival [RFS]: low risk, 80.1%; intermediate risk, 60.3%; high risk, 37.7%; P =.001) and validation (12-month RFS: low risk, 84.5%; intermediate risk, 63.5%; high risk, 47.1%; P =.036) datasets. The online predictive model was made available at https://ktsahara.shinyapps.io/stageI%5ficc/. Patients with stage I ICC without vascular invasion or lymph node metastasis had a relatively high incidence of recurrence. An online tool can risk stratify patients relative to recurrence risk to identify individuals best suited for alternative treatment approaches. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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