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Of all the natural disasters, floods are the most common. While they affect most countries around the world, poor communities are particularly vulnerable to flood risk. The use of early preparedness measures is key for minimizing related flood impacts; however, little is known about what drives their adoption by households in those communities. We undertake a household survey of individual flood preparedness decisions in ten communities in the Mexican state of Tabasco, which are exposed to frequent flooding and also highly vulnerable from a socio-economic perspective. Statistical analysis reveals that in these communities having accessible flood risk maps, sharing flood experiences with family, having early warning systems, and having shelters, amongst other factors, all increase the likelihood of household preparedness actions. This information is important as it can be used to assist in diagnosing the existing capacities and gaps in managing flood risk in these communities. For example, while having knowledge of the risk map is found to significantly increase the likelihood of protecting the belongings, only 8% of the survey respondents were aware of their community’s risk map.

The academic debate on economic growth, the environment and prosperity has continued for many decades now. In 2015, we conducted an online survey of researchers’ views on various aspects of this debate, such as the compatibility of global GDP growth with the 2 °C climate policy target, and the timing and factors of (never-)ending growth. The 814 respondents have a wide range of backgrounds, including growth theory, general economics, environmental economics, ecological economics, environmental social sciences, and natural sciences. The two main aims are: (1) to provide an overview of agreements and disagreements across research fields, and (2) to understand why opinions differ. The survey results indicate substantial disagreement across research fields on almost every posed question. Environmental problems are most frequently mentioned as a very important factor contributing to an end of economic growth. Furthermore, we find that researchers are more skeptical about growth in the context of a concrete problem like the compatibility with the 2 °C climate target than when considering environmental problems more generally. Many respondents suggest ideology, values and worldviews as important reasons for disagreement. This is supported by the statistical analysis, showing that researchers’ political orientation is consistently correlated with views on growth.

In this paper, I study the generative role of speculative promise in climate engineering research. My analysis operationalizes Alfred Nordmann’s call for a ‘forensics of wishing’, a variety of technology assessment which scrutinizes the politics of anticipation in technoscience. Using scientific articles and reports as primary sources I trace the uptake and contestation of bold claims made by atmospheric scientist Paul Crutzen a decade ago. In 2006, Crutzen called for dedicated research on stratospheric albedo enhancement as a method to cool the planet. A back-of-the-envelope calculation invoking the eruption of the Mount Pinatubo volcano as a case to be mimicked served to illustrate the method. In the paper, I concentrate on the reception of this idea by fellow climate scientists. Besides fundamental objections being made to Crutzen’s climate paradigm, less idealized models appeared to produce much less promising calculations. The initial claims however kept re-appearing as well and continue to exert influence as idealized models take the idea further. Speculation thus continues to be an important driver of the research. In the conclusion, I discuss aspects of the worldview underlying the proposal, drawing on environmental humanities literature on the human condition in the Anthropocene.

This paper explores the representation of goods and services from the subsurface, as defined by the concept of geosystem services, in contemporary ecosystems literature. A framework is defined consistent with and complementary to the categorization defined under CICES. Following the Campbell Collaboration protocol, a systematic literature review is conducted on the representation of subsurface-related goods and services in ecosystem services research. The review shows that, in the period between 2000 and 2016, for every publication on subsurface services 140 articles on ecosystem services have been published. The results further indicate that valuation and governance studies on geosystem services are scarce. This gap stems from the exclusion of a number of abiotic goods and services from the classification as well as a lack of attention from the current scientific community to this topic. Studies to date have been performed in a limited number of English-speaking countries by researchers with backgrounds in ecology, biology, earth sciences and mining engineering. The underrepresentation of geosystem services in the scientific literature negatively impacts integrated decision making in spatial planning, environmental policy making and long term ecosystem management.

International audience; Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAH) are environmental contaminants that pose significant risk to health of fish. The International Workshop on Integrated Assessment of Contaminant Impacts on the North Sea (ICON) provided the framework to investigate biomarker responses as well as contaminant concentrations side by side in marine ecosystems. Concentrations of the main PAH metabolites 1-hydroxypyrene, 1-hydroxyphenanthren and 3-hydroxybenzo(a)pyrene were determined in bile by HPLC with fluorescence detection. Fish species under investigation were dab (Limanda limanda), flounder (Platichthys flesus) and haddock (Melanogrammus aeglefinus). A contamination gradient was demonstrated from the low contaminated waters of Iceland and off-shore regions of the North Sea towards higher concentrations in coastal areas. Concentrations of PAH metabolites differed primarily according to sampling region and secondarily to species.

This paper analyses the role of official development assistance (ODA) in the evolution of Technological Innovation Systems (TISs) of improved cookstoves in Kenya and Rwanda. Functionally balanced TISs are central to the diffusion of new technologies and practices. We find that ODA has significantly influenced major innovation activities related to improved cookstoves in both Kenya and Rwanda over the last 30 years. However, donors’ funding has been focused mainly on the development and diffusion of technical knowledge. We find that this pattern of ODA support has not fostered balanced and effective Technology Innovation Systems, and that this has contributed to the failure to achieve widespread diffusion of improved cookstoves. We develop a quasi-evolutionary model for the long-term and systematic ODA support of innovation systems to build sustainable renewable energy TISs in developing countries.

Context: Hedgerows are typical landscape features of high environmental and cultural value that often have been sacrificed for agricultural intensification and scale enlargement. Objectives: We studied the dynamics of hedgerow quality over time in a case study area renowned for its hedgerow landscapes: South West Devon (UK) answering the following research questions: (1) how does the imperative of scale enlargement affect hedgerow quality? and (2) to what extent can cultural landscape degradation be countered by targeted policies? Methods: We applied an agent-based modeling approach, parameterized with a site specific survey, to explore and discuss outcomes of future landscape change with stakeholders and co-designed preferred scenarios of landscape change during a workshop. Results: Outcomes suggested that in the case-study area, scale enlargement has a negative effect on hedgerow quality when agri-environment scheme subsidies (AES) are low. In contrast, if the level of AES enrollment is high, scale enlargement can have a positive effect on hedgerow quality, as large holders are more likely to enroll for AES. Stakeholders acknowledged the need for agricultural intensification, but at the same time valued biodiversity and environmental value of the landscape in South West Devon. Conclusion: Current AES are able to retain a decent hedgerow quality. With lower AES, scale enlargement can have an invigorative effect on hedgerow quality as land managers of larger farms will be less likely to join AES As an addition to AES, harvesting wood fuel from coppiced hedgerows appears a promising way to incentivize rejuvenating hedgerow management without governmental subsidies.

International audience; The utilization of numerical atmospheric dispersion prediction (NDP) models for assisting the emergency response to emission of radionuclides has been recommended by a working group of the Meteorological Society of Japan. This paper verifies the feasibility of the recommendation through NDP model intercomparison with limited emission source information for the case of the Fukushima Dai-ichi Nuclear Power Plant accident caused by the Great East Japan Earthquake in 2011. According to the recommendation of the working group, the NDP models are run under the assumption of a constant rate of emission during the whole forecast period. This is the worst-case scenario when limited source information is available. Generally, no information is provided on the temporal variability and strength of the emissions, while the source location is known. Surface air radionuclide forecasts are utilized for providing warnings of the risk of inhaling radioactive substances suspended in the low-level atmosphere, whereas column-integrated radionuclide forecasts are utilized for estimating the potential maximum wet deposition of radioactive materials on the ground due to precipitation. The NDP model short-range forecasts were validated with observational data for three locations, at the times when the most serious contamination events occurred at each of the three monitoring stations. The NDP models successfully predicted the risk of surface air contamination and/or ground surface contamination caused by wet deposition in these cases. Particularly, the NDP model forecasts allow us to disseminate warnings at effective lead times before exposure to radiation. The different NDP models gradually deviate their forecasts as the lead time progresses. The deviations may indicate the magnitude of forecast errors. Thus, the use of multi-model forecasts is of greater benefit than the single model forecasts, because forecast error information is suggested. © 2019

Clarifying how increased atmospheric CO2 concentration (eCO2) contributes to accelerated land carbon sequestration remains important since this process is the largest negative feedback in the coupled carbon–climate system. Here, we constrain the sensitivity of the terrestrial carbon sink to eCO2 over the temperate Northern Hemisphere for the past five decades, using 12 terrestrial ecosystem models and data from seven CO2 enrichment experiments. This constraint uses the heuristic finding that the northern temperate carbon sink sensitivity to eCO2 is linearly related to the site-scale sensitivity across the models. The emerging data-constrained eCO2 sensitivity is 0.64 ± 0.28 PgC yr−1 per hundred ppm of eCO2. Extrapolating worldwide, this northern temperate sensitivity projects the global terrestrial carbon sink to increase by 3.5 ± 1.9 PgC yr−1 for an increase in CO2 of 100 ppm. This value suggests that CO2 fertilization alone explains most of the observed increase in global land carbon sink since the 1960s. More CO2 enrichment experiments, particularly in boreal, arctic and tropical ecosystems, are required to explain further the responsible processes. The northern temperate carbon sink is estimated to increase by 0.64 PgC each year for each increase in atmospheric CO2 concentrations by 100 ppm, suggests an analysis of data from field experiments at 7 sites constraints.

International audience

International audience; In this study, we examine the spatial and temporal characteristics of water stress in China for the historical (1971-2010) and the future (2021-2050) periods using a multimodel simulation approach. Three water stress indices (WSIs), that is, the ratios of water withdrawals to locally generated runoff (WSI R), to natural streamflow (WSI Q), and to natural streamflow minus upstream consumptive water withdrawals (WSI C), are used for the assessment. At the basin level, WSI R estimates generally match the reported data and indicate severe water stress in most northern basins. At the grid cell level, the WSIs show distinct spatial patterns of water stress wherein WSI R (WSI Q) estimates higher (lower) water stress compared to WSI C. Based on the WSI C estimates, 368 million people (nearly one third of the total population) are affected by severe water stress annually during the historical period, while WSI R and WSI Q suggest 595 and 340 million, respectively. Future projections of WSI C indicate that more than 600 million people (43% of the total) might be affected by severe water stress, and half of China's land area would be exposed to stress. The found aggravating water stress conditions could be partly attributed to the elevated future water withdrawals. This study emphasizes the necessity of considering explicit upstream and downstream relations with respect to both water availability and water use in water stress assessment and calls for more attention to increasing levels of water stress in China in the coming decades. Plain Language Summary Severe water stress in China has been widely reported, but its time evolution and spatial patterns are rarely assessed. We examine the spatial and temporal change patterns of water stress in China by using multimodel simulations and three different water stress indices (WSIs). Results suggest that different WSIs imply distinct spatial patterns of water stress over China. The WSIs indicate that water stress conditions in northern China are quite distinct from that in southern China. During the past decades (1971-2010), severe water stress is found in northern areas while little is found in southern areas. In the future (2021-2050), however, water-stressed areas might expand in southern China and water stress levels might aggravate in urban areas, putting considerably more people exposed to severe water stress. This assessment provides useful information for regional water planning/management within the context of future climate change and socioeconomic development in China.

International audience; Two new species from the superfamily Crotonioidea, Malaconothrus kawensis n. sp. and Cyrthermannia bifurcata n. sp., found in material colected in Kaw mountains (Montagne de Kaw), and near the Saül, French Guyana, are described. The relationships of both new species within respective genera are analysed, and determination keys are provided for all South-American and other closely related Malaconothrus species and for all known Cyrthermannia species. Cyrthermannia formosana Tseng, 1982 is newly recombined as Nanhermannia (Nippohermannia) formosana (Tseng, 1982) n. comb., following analysis of morphological characters.

We explore the role of a transmission system operator (TSO) that builds a transmission line to accommodate renewable energy in order to lower emissions as required by government policy. In contrast to central planning, a TSO in a deregulated electricity industry can only indirectly influence outcomes through its choice of the transmission line capacity. Via a bi-level model, we show that this results in less transmission capacity and with limited emissions control in a perfectly competitive industry vis-a-vis a benchmark centrally planned system. A carbon charge on industry that fully accounts for the cost of pollution damage leads to a perfect alignment of incentives and maximised social welfare only under perfect competition. By contrast, a carbon charge may actually lower social welfare under a Cournot oligopoly as the resulting reduction in consumption facilitates the further exercise of market power.

著者人数: 174名 (所属. 宇宙航空研究開発機構宇宙科学研究所(JAXA)(ISAS): 和泉, 究), Number of authors: 174 (Affiliation. Institute of Space and Astronautical Science, Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency(JAXA)(ISAS): Izumi, Kiwamu), Accepted: 2019-03-14, 資料番号: SA1190044000

In the eastern side of the Malay Peninsula, thick successions of limestone formations preserve important records of the Mesozoic and Cenozoic tectonic events. Here we investigate the strata- and fracture-bound hydrothermal dolomites in the Palaeozoic carbonates of the Kinta Valley, western Peninsular Malaysia. Based on their textural and morphologic characteristics, structural relationships with the host rock, different facies types, and associations with hydrothermal calcite and low-grade metamorphic marble, we attempt to trace their polyphase origin and relationship with thermo-tectonic events of the region. A detailed evaluation of the nature of brecciation and crystallization of polyphase dolomites, dolomitic limestones, limestones and marble, under the influences of episodic faulting, is associated with the regional structural geology with emphasis on pre-existing fault reactivations, granitic emplacement and progressive thermal influence. Supply of Mg2+ from the host rock for dolomitization, limited and episodic influx of circulating fluids and cessation of thermo-tectonic evolution with progressive cooling are also inferred. Correlating the geological events in western Peninsular Malaysia with regional structural dynamics reveals that the major deformation episodes exerted first order controls on the loci of dolomite occurrences. The occurrence, geometry and structural relationships of the dolomites were controlled by successive magmatic events, whereas, the intensity of replacement dolomitization was controlled by host rock texture and varied bulk chemistry, together with the nature of circulating fluids.

Plants use only a fraction of their photosynthetically derived carbon for biomass production (BP). The biomass production efficiency (BPE), defined as the ratio of BP to photosynthesis, and its variation across and within vegetation types is poorly understood, which hinders our capacity to accurately estimate carbon turnover times and carbon sinks. Here, we present a new global estimation of BPE obtained by combining field measurements from 113 sites with 14 carbon cycle models. Our best estimate of global BPE is 0.41 +/- 0.05, excluding cropland. The largest BPE is found in boreal forests (0.48 +/- 0.06) and the lowest in tropical forests (0.40 +/- 0.04). Carbon cycle models overestimate BPE, although models with carbon-nitrogen interactions tend to be more realistic. Using observation-based estimates of global photosynthesis, we quantify the global BP of non-cropland ecosystems of 41 +/- 6 Pg C/year. This flux is less than net primary production as it does not contain carbon allocated to symbionts, used for exudates or volatile carbon compound emissions to the atmosphere. Our study reveals a positive bias of 24 +/- 11% in the model-estimated BP (10 of 14 models). When correcting models for this bias while leaving modeled carbon turnover times unchanged, we found that the global ecosystem carbon storage change during the last century is decreased by 67% (or 58 Pg C).

Untargeted analysis of a composite house dust sample has been performed as part of a collaborative effort to evaluate the progress in the field of suspect and nontarget screening and build an extensive database of organic indoor environment contaminants. Twenty-one participants reported results that were curated by the organizers of the collaborative trial. In total, nearly 2350 compounds were identified (18%) or tentatively identified (25% at confidence level 2 and 58% at confidence level 3), making the collaborative trial a success. However, a relatively small share (37%) of all compounds were reported by more than one participant, which shows that there is plenty of room for improvement in the field of suspect and nontarget screening. An even a smaller share (5%) of the total number of compounds were detected using both liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry (LC-MS) and gas chromatography–mass spectrometry (GC-MS). Thus, the two MS techniques are highly complementary. Most of the compounds were detected using LC with electrospray ionization (ESI) MS and comprehensive 2D GC (GC×GC) with atmospheric pressure chemical ionization (APCI) and electron ionization (EI), respectively. Collectively, the three techniques accounted for more than 75% of the reported compounds. Glycols, pharmaceuticals, pesticides, and various biogenic compounds dominated among the compounds reported by LC-MS participants, while hydrocarbons, hydrocarbon derivatives, and chlorinated paraffins and chlorinated biphenyls were primarily reported by GC-MS participants. Plastics additives, flavor and fragrances, and personal care products were reported by both LC-MS and GC-MS participants. It was concluded that the use of multiple analytical techniques was required for a comprehensive characterization of house dust contaminants. Further, several recommendations are given for improved suspect and nontarget screening of house dust and other indoor environment samples, including the use of open-source data processing tools. One of the tools allowed provisional identification of almost 500 compounds that had not been reported by participants. [Figure not available: see fulltext.].

Het bruto binnenlands product (bbp) is een informatiefiasco op macro-economische schaal. Desondanks blijft de dynamiek van het bbp de gemoederen beroeren. Wat leert een ­kritische evaluatie van alternatieve indicatoren ons over potentiële ­strategieën ter verbetering van welvaart?

National audience

China has experienced rapid agricultural development over recent decades, accompanied by increased fertilizer consumption in croplands; yet, the trend and drivers of the associated nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions remain uncertain. The primary sources of this uncertainty are the coarse spatial variation of activity data and the incomplete model representation of N2 O emissions in response to agricultural management. Here, we provide new data-driven estimates of cropland-N2 O emissions across China in 1990-2014, compiled using a global cropland-N2 O flux observation dataset, nationwide survey-based reconstruction of N-fertilization and irrigation, and an updated nonlinear model. In addition, we have evaluated the drivers behind changing cropland-N2 O patterns using an index decomposition analysis approach. We find that China's annual cropland-N2 O emissions increased on average by 11.2GgN/year2 (p&nbsp

Subpolar regions in the Southern Hemisphere are influenced by the Antarctic polar vortex during austral spring, which induces high and short-term ozone variability at different altitudes, mainly into the stratosphere. This variation may affect considerably the total ozone column changing the harmful UV radiation that reaches the surface. With the aim of studying ozone with a high time resolution at different altitudes in subpolar regions, a millimetre-wave radiometer (MWR) was installed at the Observatorio Atmosférico de la Patagonia Austral (OAPA), Río Gallegos, Argentina (51.6∘ S, 69.3∘ W), in 2011. This instrument provides ozone profiles with a time resolution of ∼1 h, which enables studies of short-term ozone mixing ratio variability from 25 to ∼70 km in altitude. This work presents the MWR ozone observations between October 2014 and 2015, focusing on an atypical event of the polar vortex and Antarctic ozone hole influence over Río Gallegos detected from the MWR measurements at 27 and 37 km during November of 2014. During the event, the MWR observations at both altitudes show a decrease in ozone followed by a local peak of ozone amount of the order of hours. This local recovery is observed thanks to the high time resolution of the MWR mentioned. The advected potential vorticity (APV) calculated from the MIMOSA high-resolution advection model (Modélisation Isentrope du transport Méso-échelle de l'Ozone Stratosphérique par Advection) was also analysed at two isentropic levels (levels of constant potential temperature) of 675 and 950 K (∼27 and ∼37 km of altitude, respectively) to understand and explain the dynamics at both altitudes and correlate the ozone rapid recovery with the passage of a tongue with low PV values over Río Gallegos. In addition, the MWR dataset was compared for the first time with measurements obtained from the Microwave Limb Sounder (MLS) at individual altitude levels (27, 37 and 65 km) and with the differential absorption lidar (DIAL) installed in the OAPA to analyse the correspondence between the MWR and independent instruments. The MWR–MLS comparison presents a reasonable correlation with mean bias errors of +5 %, −11 % and −7 % at 27, 37 and 65 km, respectively. The MWR–DIAL comparison at 27 km also presents good agreement, with a mean bias error of −1 %. Fil: Orte, Pablo Facundo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; Argentina. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Wolfram, Elian Augusto. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires; Argentina Fil: Salvador, Jacobo Omar. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires; Argentina Fil: Mizuno, Akira. Nagoya University; Japón Fil: Bègue, Nelson. Université de La Réunion; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Bencherif, Hassan. Université de La Réunion; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia. University of KwaZulu Natal; Sudáfrica Fil: Bali, Juan Lucas. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires; Argentina Fil: D'Elia, Raul. Ministerio de Defensa. Instituto de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas para la Defensa; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional Buenos Aires; Argentina Fil: Pazmiño, Andrea. Université Pierre et Marie Curie; Francia. Université Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Godin Beekmann, Sophie. Université Pierre et Marie Curie; Francia. Université Versailles St Quentin en Yvelines; Francia. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique; Francia Fil: Ohyama, Hirofumi. National Institute for Environmental Studies; Japón Fil: Quiroga, Jonathan Javier. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa. Ministerio de Defensa. Unidad de Investigación y Desarrollo Estratégico para la Defensa; Argentina

Understanding and modeling the large-scale transport of trace gases and aerosols is important for interpreting past (and projecting future) changes in atmospheric composition. Here we show that there are large differences in the global-scale atmospheric transport properties among the models participating in the IGAC SPARC Chemistry–Climate Model Initiative (CCMI). Specifically, we find up to 40 % differences in the transport timescales connecting the Northern Hemisphere (NH) midlatitude surface to the Arctic and to Southern Hemisphere high latitudes, where the mean age ranges between 1.7 and 2.6 years. We show that these differences are related to large differences in vertical transport among the simulations, in particular to differences in parameterized convection over the oceans. While stronger convection over NH midlatitudes is associated with slower transport to the Arctic, stronger convection in the tropics and subtropics is associated with faster interhemispheric transport. We also show that the differences among simulations constrained with fields derived from the same reanalysis products are as large as (and in some cases larger than) the differences among free-running simulations, most likely due to larger differences in parameterized convection. Our results indicate that care must be taken when using simulations constrained with analyzed winds to interpret the influence of meteorology on tropospheric composition.

In a 3.5-year long study, the long-term performance of a mobile, solar absorption Bruker EM27/SUN spectrometer, used for greenhouse gas observations, is checked with respect to a co-located reference Bruker IFS 125HR spectrometer, which is part of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). We find that the EM27/SUN is stable on timescales of several years; the drift per year between the EM27/SUN and the official TCCON product is 0.02 ppmv for XCO2 and 0.9 ppbv for XCH4, which is within the 1σ precision of the comparison, 0.6 ppmv for XCO2 and 4.3 ppbv for XCH4. The bias between the two data sets is 3.9 ppmv for XCO2 and 13.0 ppbv for XCH4. In order to avoid sensitivity-dependent artifacts, the EM27/SUN is also compared to a truncated IFS 125HR data set derived from full-resolution TCCON interferograms. The drift is 0.02 ppmv for XCO2 and 0.2 ppbv for XCH4 per year, with 1σ precisions of 0.4 ppmv for XCO2 and 1.4 ppbv for XCH4, respectively. The bias between the two data sets is 0.6 ppmv for XCO2 and 0.5 ppbv for XCH4. With the presented long-term stability, the EM27/SUN qualifies as an useful supplement to the existing TCCON network in remote areas. To achieve consistent performance, such an extension requires careful testing of any spectrometers involved by application of common quality assurance measures. One major aim of the COllaborative Carbon Column Observing Network (COCCON) infrastructure is to provide these services to all EM27/SUN operators. In the framework of COCCON development, the performance of an ensemble of 30 EM27/SUN spectrometers was tested and found to be very uniform, enhanced by the centralized inspection performed at the Karlsruhe Institute of Technology prior to deployment. Taking into account measured instrumental line shape parameters for each spectrometer, the resulting average bias across the ensemble with respect to the reference EM27/SUN used in the long-term study in XCO2 is 0.20 ppmv, while it is 0.8 ppbv for XCH4. The average standard deviation of the ensemble is 0.13 ppmv for XCO2 and 0.6 ppbv for XCH4. In addition to the robust metric based on absolute differences, we calculate the standard deviation among the empirical calibration factors. The resulting 2σ uncertainty is 0.6 ppmv for XCO2 and 2.2 ppbv for XCH4. As indicated by the executed long-term study on one device presented here, the remaining empirical calibration factor deduced for each individual instrument can be assumed constant over time. Therefore the application of these empirical factors is expected to further improve the EM27/SUN network conformity beyond the scatter among the empirical calibration factors reported above.

We have derived values of the ultraviolet index (UVI) at solar noon using the Tropospheric Ultraviolet Model (TUV) driven by ozone, temperature and aerosol fields from climate simulations of the first phase of the Chemistry-Climate Model Initiative (CCMI-1). Since clouds remain one of the largest uncertainties in climate projections, we simulated only the clear-sky UVI. We compared the modelled UVI climatologies against present-day climatological values of UVI derived from both satellite data (the OMI-Aura OMUVBd product) and ground-based measurements (from the NDACC network). Depending on the region, relative differences between the UVI obtained from CCMI/TUV calculations and the ground-based measurements ranged between −5.9 % and 10.6 %. We then calculated the UVI evolution throughout the 21st century for the four Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs 2.6, 4.5, 6.0 and 8.5). Compared to 1960s values, we found an average increase in the UVI in 2100 (of 2 %–4 %) in the tropical belt (30∘ N–30∘ S). For the mid-latitudes, we observed a 1.8 % to 3.4 % increase in the Southern Hemisphere for RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and found a 2.3 % decrease in RCP 8.5. Higher increases in UVI are projected in the Northern Hemisphere except for RCP 8.5. At high latitudes, ozone recovery is well identified and induces a complete return of mean UVI levels to 1960 values for RCP 8.5 in the Southern Hemisphere. In the Northern Hemisphere, UVI levels in 2100 are higher by 0.5 % to 5.5 % for RCPs 2.6, 4.5 and 6.0 and they are lower by 7.9 % for RCP 8.5. We analysed the impacts of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) on UVI from 1960 by comparing CCMI sensitivity simulations (1960–2100) with fixed GHGs or ODSs at their respective 1960 levels. As expected with ODS fixed at their 1960 levels, there is no large decrease in ozone levels and consequently no sudden increase in UVI levels. With fixed GHG, we observed a delayed return of ozone to 1960 values, with a corresponding pattern of change observed on UVI, and looking at the UVI difference between 2090s values and 1960s values, we found an 8 % increase in the tropical belt during the summer of each hemisphere. Finally we show that, while in the Southern Hemisphere the UVI is mainly driven by total ozone column, in the Northern Hemisphere both total ozone column and aerosol optical depth drive UVI levels, with aerosol optical depth having twice as much influence on the UVI as total ozone column does. ISSN:1680-7375 ISSN:1680-7367

We have compared a suite of recent global CO2 atmospheric inversion results to independent airborne observations and to each other, to assess their dependence on differences in northern extratropical (NET) vertical transport and to identify some of the drivers of model spread. We evaluate posterior CO2 concentration profiles against observations from the High-Performance Instrumented Airborne Platform for Environmental Research (HIAPER) Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaigns over the mid-Pacific in 2009–2011. Although the models differ in inverse approaches, assimilated observations, prior fluxes, and transport models, their broad latitudinal separation of land fluxes has converged significantly since the Atmospheric Carbon Cycle Inversion Intercomparison (TransCom 3) and the REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes (RECCAP) projects, with model spread reduced by 80 % since TransCom 3 and 70 % since RECCAP. Most modeled CO2 fields agree reasonably well with the HIPPO observations, specifically for the annual mean vertical gradients in the Northern Hemisphere. Northern Hemisphere vertical mixing no longer appears to be a dominant driver of northern versus tropical (T) annual flux differences. Our newer suite of models still gives northern extratropical land uptake that is modest relative to previous estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013) and near-neutral tropical land uptake for 2009–2011. Given estimates of emissions from deforestation, this implies a continued uptake in intact tropical forests that is strong relative to historical estimates (Gurney et al., 2002; Peylin et al., 2013). The results from these models for other time periods (2004–2014, 2001–2004, 1992–1996) and re-evaluation of the TransCom 3 Level 2 and RECCAP results confirm that tropical land carbon fluxes including deforestation have been near neutral for several decades. However, models still have large disagreements on ocean–land partitioning. The fossil fuel (FF) and the atmospheric growth rate terms have been thought to be the best-known terms in the global carbon budget, but we show that they currently limit our ability to assess regional-scale terrestrial fluxes and ocean–land partitioning from the model ensemble.

Understanding the mechanisms of climate that produce novel ecosystems is of joint interest to conservation biologists and palaeoecologists. Here, we define and differentiate transient from accumulated novelty and evaluate four climatic mechanisms proposed to cause species to reshuffle into novel assemblages: high climatic novelty, high spatial rates of change (displacement), high variance among displacement rates for individual climate variables, and divergence among displacement vector bearings. We use climate simulations to quantify climate novelty, displacement and divergence across Europe and eastern North America from the last glacial maximum to the present, and fossil pollen records to quantify vegetation novelty. Transient climate novelty is consistently the strongest predictor of transient vegetation novelty, while displacement rates (mean and variance) are equally important in Europe. However, transient vegetation novelty is lower in Europe and its relationship to climatic predictors is the opposite of expectation. For both continents, accumulated novelty is greater than transient novelty, and climate novelty is the strongest predictor of accumulated ecological novelty. These results suggest that controls on novel ecosystems vary with timescale and among continents, and that the twenty-first century emergence of novelty will be driven by both rapid rates of climate change and the emergence of novel climate states. This article is part of a discussion meeting issue ‘The past is a foreign country: how much can the fossil record actually inform conservation?’

Our understanding and quantification of global soil nitrous oxide (N2 O) emissions and the underlying processes remain largely uncertain. Here we assessed the effects of multiple anthropogenic and natural factors, including nitrogen fertilizer (N) application, atmospheric N deposition, manure N application, land cover change, climate change and rising atmospheric CO2 concentration, on global soil N2 O emissions for the period 1861-2016 using a standard simulation protocol with seven process-based terrestrial biosphere models. Results suggest global soil N2 O emissions have increased from 6.3 ± 1.1 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 in the pre-industrial period (the 1860s) to 10.0 ± 2.0 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 in the recent decade (2007-2016). Cropland soil emissions increased from 0.3 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 to 3.3 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 over the same period, accounting for 82% of the total increase. Regionally, China, South Asia and Southeast Asia underwent rapid increases in cropland N2 O emissions since the 1970s. However, US cropland N2 O emissions had been relatively flat in magnitude since the 1980s, and EU cropland N2 O emissions appear to have decreased by 14%. Soil N2 O emissions from predominantly natural ecosystems accounted for 67% of the global soil emissions in the recent decade but showed only a relatively small increase of 0.7 ± 0.5 Tg N2 O-N yr-1 (11%) since the 1860s. In the recent decade, N fertilizer application, N deposition, manure N application and climate change contributed 54%, 26%, 15% and 24%, respectively, to the total increase. Rising atmospheric CO2 concentration reduced soil N2 O emissions by 10% through the enhanced plant N uptake, while land cover change played a minor role. Our estimation here does not account for indirect emissions from soils and the directed emissions from excreta of grazing livestock. To address uncertainties in estimating regional and global soil N2 O emissions, this study recommends several critical strategies for improving the process-based simulations.

Unidad de excelencia María de Maeztu CEX2019-000940-M A price on emissions can be achieved through an emission tax or permit trading. The advan- tages and drawbacks of either instrument are debated. We present an agent-based model to compare their performance under bounded rationality and dynamic markets. It describes firms that face uncertainty about future demand and prices; use heuristic rules to decide production levels, trading prices, and technology adoption; and are heterogeneous in terms of production factors, abatement costs, and trading behavior. Using multiple evaluation criteria and a wide range of parameter values, we find that the main difference between the two policies lies in the fact that permit prices fall after successful abatement. This can lead to higher production levels under permit trading, but can also drive emission-efficient firms out of the market. Scarcity rents under permit trading can further create higher profit rates for firms, the extent of which is shown to depend on the mechanisms for market-clearing and initial allocation.

Land-use change affects both the quality and quantity of soil organic carbon (SOC) and leads to changes in ecosystem functions such as productivity and environmental regulation. Future changes in SOC are, however, highly uncertain owing to its heterogeneity and complexity. In this study, we analyzed the outputs of simulations of SOC stock by Earth system models (ESMs), most of which are participants in the Land-Use Model Intercomparison Project. Using a common protocol and the same forcing data, the ESMs simulated SOC distribution patterns and their changes during historical (1850–2014) and future (2015–2100) periods. Total SOC stock increased in many simulations over the historical period (30 ± 67 Pg C) and under future climate and land-use conditions (48 ± 32 Pg C for ssp126 and 49 ± 58 Pg C for ssp370). Land-use experiments indicated that changes in SOC attributable to land-use scenarios were modest at the global scale, in comparison with climatic and rising CO2 impacts, but they were notable in several regions. Future net soil carbon sequestration rates estimated by the ESMs were roughly 0.4‰ yr−1 (0.6 Pg C yr−1). Although there were considerable inter-model differences, the rates are still remarkable in terms of their potential for mitigation of global warming. The disparate results among ESMs imply that key parameters that control processes such as SOC residence time need to be better constrained and that more comprehensive representation of land management impacts on soils remain critical for understanding the long-term potential of soils to sequester carbon.

Prenatal exposure to endocrine disrupting chemicals may affect fetal development through disruption of hormonal actions and epigenetic modifications, potentially predisposing individuals to later on-set health risks, such as obesity. The objective of this study was to determine associations between biological exposure markers of various endocrine disrupting chemicals and birth weight in a newly established, prospective mother-child cohort in the Netherlands. Birth weight (n = 91) was obtained from birth records, and exposure to dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene (DDE), three di-2-ethylhexyl phthalate (DEHP) metabolites, polychlorinated biphenyl-153, perfluorooctanesulfonic acid (PFOS), and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA) was determined in cord plasma. For DDE, exposure was also measured in breast milk. Linear regression analysis was used to determine associations between compounds and birth weight, which were stratified for gender and adjusted for a priori defined covariates. Increased exposure to DDE was associated with lower birth weight in boys (>95.89 ng L

The global demand for agricultural products will increase in the 21st century, unless major transformations in consumptive behaviour occur. To a large extent, production increases in agriculture will depend on intensifying existing agricultural systems. Yet, our understanding of what determines the spatial pat- terns of agricultural intensity and changes therein is limited. Here, we analysed agricultural intensity changes in Europe focussing on yields and fertiliser application for six major crop-type groups for the period 1990–2007. We applied random effects panel regressions to analyse the spatial determinants of intensity changes using a suite of biophysical and socio-economic variables. We found that yields increased and mineral nitrogen application decreased by approximately 10%, suggesting a decoupling of changes in output and input intensity in Europe’s agricultural systems. Yields and nitrogen application across crop-type groups were particularly high in Western and Central Europe, whereas Eastern Europe was characterised by lower yields and nitrogen application. We also found strong sub-national variation in intensity levels in respect to crop-type groups and indicators. Higher yields were typically related to higher fertilisation, high soil quality, less growing degree days, and high labour productivity. Higher nitrogen application rates, in turn, were related to high soil water and carbon contents, and high labour productivity. Our study provides insights into broad-scale agricultural intensity patterns in Europe that allow for identifying trade-offs between agriculture and the environment, as well as entry points for regionalised, targeted policy making towards a more sustainable management of Europe land systems.

In textiles, like outdoor clothing, per- and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) are often used for durable water repellency (DWR) of the final products. The analytical performance to determine the concentration of these chemicals available for exposure to humans and to the environment need to be established. Here a method for the extraction and analysis of one class of PFASs, namely perfluoroalkyl acids (PFAAs), in outdoor clothing was developed and validated. The PFAAs which were validated, included perfluoroalkyl carboxylic acids (PFCAs) (C4-C14), and perfluoroalkane sulfonic acids (PFSAs) (C4, C6, C7, C8). In addition, perfluorooctane sulfonamide (FOSA) was included in this study. The method was based on an organic solvent extraction and analysis by high-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry (LC-MS/MS). No further cleaning was needed. Two commonly used organic solvent compositions were evaluated for the optimal extraction, i.e. methanol and acetone/acetonitrile (80:20, v/v), and the number and duration of the sequential extractions were optimized. Results showed that two sequential extractions with 5 mL methanol and an extraction time of 30 min gave an optimal performance with an extraction efficiency of >90%. The influence of matrix on the quantification of PFAAs was studied. This indicated ion suppression due to different matrix effects or sorption behavior to specific textile samples. Validation of the entire method showed overall recoveries of>80% and relative standard deviations (RSDs) of

Land systems are the result of human interactions with the natural environment. Understanding the drivers, state, trends and impacts of different land systems on social and natural processes helps to reveal how changes in the land system affect the functioning of the socio-ecological system and the tradeoff these changes may represent. The Global Land Project has led advances by synthesizing land systems research across different scales and providing concepts to further understand the feedbacks between socio- and environmental systems, between urban and rural environments and between distant world regions. Land system science has moved from a focus on observation of change and understanding the drivers of these changes to a focus on using this understanding to design sustainable transformations through stakeholder engagement and through concept of land governance. As land use can be seen as the largest geo-engineering project in which mankind has engaged, land system science can act as a platform for integration of insight from different disciplines and for translation of knowledge in action. Fil: Verburgh, Peter H.. Vu University Amsterdam; Países Bajos Fil: Crossman, Neville. CSIRO Exploration and Mining; Australia Fil: Ellis, Erle. University of Maryland; Estados Unidos Fil: Heinniman, Andreas. University Of Bern; Suiza Fil: Hostert, Patrick. Humboldt University; Alemania Fil: Mertz, Ole. University Of Copenhagen; Dinamarca Fil: Nagendra, Harini. Azim Premni University; India Fil: Sikor, Thomas. University of East Anglia; Reino Unido Fil: Erb, Karl Heinz. Alpen Adria University; Austria Fil: Golubieuski, Nancy. Ministry Of Environment; Nueva Zelanda Fil: Grau, Hector Ricardo. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet - Tucumán. Instituto de Ecología Regional; Argentina Fil: Grove, Morgan. United States Department of Agriculture; Estados Unidos Fil: Konate, Souleymane. University Of Abobo-adjane; Costa de Marfil Fil: Meyfroidt, Patrick. Lovaine University; Bélgica Fil: Parker, Dawn C.. Indiana University; Estados Unidos Fil: Chowdury, Rinku Roy. Clark University; Estados Unidos Fil: Shibata, Hideaki. Hokkaido University; Japón Fil: Thomson, Allison. The Alliance for Sustainable Agriculture; Estados Unidos Fil: Zhen, Lin. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de China

Despite the importance of methane for climate change mitigation, uncertainties regarding the temporal and spatial variability of the emissions remain. Measurements of CH4 isotopic composition are used to partition the relative contributions of different emission sources. We report continuous isotopic measurements during 5 months at the Lutjewad tower (north of the Netherlands). Time-series of χ(CH4), δ13C-CH4, and δD-CH4 in ambient air were analysed using the Keeling plot method. Resulting source signatures ranged from −67.4 to −52.4‰ vs V-PDB and from −372 to −211‰ vs V-SMOW, for δ13C and δD respectively, indicating a prevalence of biogenic sources. Analysis of isotope and wind data indicated that (i) emissions from off-shore oil and gas platforms in the North Sea were not detected during this period, (ii) CH4 from fossil fuel related sources was usually advected from the east, pointing towards the Groningen gas field or regions further east in Germany. The results from two atmospheric transport models, CHIMERE and FLEXPART-COSMO, using the EDGAR v4.3.2 and TNO-MACC III emission inventories, reproduce χ(CH4) variations relatively well, but the isotope signatures were over-estimated by the model compared to the observations. Accounting for geographical variations of the δ13C signatures from fossil fuel emissions improved the model results significantly. The difference between model and measured isotopic signatures was larger when using TNO-MACC III compared to EDGAR v4.3.2 inventory. Uncertainties in the isotope signatures of the sources could explain a significant fraction of the discrepancy, thus a better source characterisation could further strengthen the use of isotopes in constraining emissions.

Nordhaus’ seminal DICE model assesses first-best climate policy, a useful but unrealistic yardstick. I propose a measure of policy inefficacy if carbon prices are heterogeneous and use observed prices to recalibrate the DICE model. I introduce a Niskanen-inspired model of climate policy with selfish bureaucrats, and calibrate it to carbon dioxide emissions in the European Union and the policy models used by the IPCC. This model also implies a measure of policy inefficacy that I use to recalibrate DICE. The optimal global mean temperature is 1∘C perhaps 2∘C higher in the recalibrated than in the original DICE model.

This paper provides an overview of the validation of National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) operational retrievals of atmospheric carbon trace gas profiles, specifically carbon monoxide (CO), methane (CH4) and carbon dioxide (CO2), from the NOAA-Unique Combined Atmospheric Processing System (NUCAPS), a NOAA enterprise algorithm that retrieves atmospheric profile environmental data records (EDRs) under global non-precipitating (clear to partly cloudy) conditions. Vertical information about atmospheric trace gases is obtained from the Cross-track Infrared Sounder (CrIS), an infrared Fourier transform spectrometer that measures high resolution Earth radiance spectra from NOAA operational low earth orbit (LEO) satellites, including the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (SNPP) and follow-on Joint Polar Satellite System (JPSS) series beginning with NOAA-20. The NUCAPS CO, CH4, and CO2 profile EDRs are rigorously validated in this paper using well-established independent truth datasets, namely total column data from ground-based Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON) sites, and in situ vertical profile data obtained from aircraft and balloon platforms via the NASA Atmospheric Tomography (ATom) mission and NOAA AirCore sampler, respectively. Statistical analyses using these datasets demonstrate that the NUCAPS carbon gas profile EDRs generally meet JPSS Level 1 global performance requirements, with the absolute accuracy and precision of CO 5% and 15%, respectively, in layers where CrIS has vertical sensitivity; CH4 and CO2 product accuracies are both found to be within ±1%, with precisions of ≈1.5% and ⪅0.5%, respectively, throughout the tropospheric column.

This chapter discusses integrated approaches to the management of risks related to extreme weather and climate change. This is done with the Loss and Damage (L&D) mechanism of the UNFCCC in mind. Relevant insights are provided for climate policy negotiators and policymakers on how risk management and adaptation interact with L&D solutions, and vice versa, on how L&D-related activities can support risk reduction and adaptation in vulnerable countries. Particular attention is devoted to how risk management can help society confront the impacts of weather disasters in relation to anthropogenic climate change. A holistic view of risk management is presented by discussing: the state-of-the art of risk assessment methods; (cost-benefit) evaluations of risk management options; household-scale risk reduction strategies; insurance schemes for residual risk and their relations with risk reduction; and the design of adaptation pathways to cope with uncertain timing and intensity of climate change impacts. Each topic is illustrated with concrete case studies. Finally, conclusions are drawn on the links between disaster risk management, climate adaptation and the L&D mechanism.

International audience; A model intercomparison of the atmospheric dispersion of cesium-137 (137Cs) emitted after the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant accident in Japan was conducted to understand the behavior of atmospheric 137Cs in greater detail. The same meteorological data with a fine spatiotemporal resolution and an emission inventory were applied to all models to exclude the differences among the models originating from differences in meteorological and emission data. The meteorological data were used for initial, boundary, and nudging data or offline meteorological field. Furthermore, a horizontal grid with the same resolution as that of the meteorological data was adopted for all models. This setup enabled us to focus on model variability originating from the processes included in each model, for example, physical processes. The multimodel ensemble captured 40% of the atmospheric 137Cs events observed by measurements, and the figure of merit in space for the total deposition of 137Cs exceeded 80. The lower score of the atmospheric 137Cs than that of the deposition originated from the difference in timing between observed and simulated atmospheric 137Cs. Our analyses indicated that meteorological data were most critical for reproducing the atmospheric 137Cs events. The results further revealed that differences in 137Cs concentrations among the models originated from deposition and diffusion processes when the meteorological field was simulated reasonably well. The models with small deposition fluxes produced higher scores for atmospheric 137Cs, and those with strong diffusion succeeded in capturing the high 137Cs concentrations observed; however, they also tended to overestimate the concentrations. ©2018. The Authors.

International audience

Flood risk throughout Europe has increased in the last few decades, and is projected to increase further owing to continued development in flood-prone areas and climate change. In recent years, studies have shown that adequate undertaking of semi-structural and non-structural measures can considerably decrease the costs of floods for households. However, there is little insight into how such measures can decrease the risk beyond the local level, now and in the future. To gain such insights, a modelling framework using the Damagescanner model with land-use and inundation maps for 2000 and 2030 was developed and applied to the Meuse river basin, in the region of Limburg, in the southeast of the Netherlands. The research suggests that annual flood risk may increase by up to 185% by 2030 compared with 2000, as a result of combined land-use and climate changes. The independent contributions of climate change and land-use change to the simulated increase are 108% and 37%, respectively. The risk-reduction capacity of the implementation of spatial zoning measures, which are meant to limit and regulate developments in flood-prone areas, is between 25% and 45%. Mitigation factors applied to assess the potential impact of three mitigation strategies (dry-proofing, wet-proofing, and the combination of dry- and wet-proofing) in residential areas show that these strategies have a risk-reduction capacity of between 21% and 40%, depending on their rate of implementation. Combining spatial zoning and mitigation measures could reduce the total increase in risk by up to 60%. Policy implications of these results are discussed. They focus on the undertaking of effective mitigation measures, and possible ways to increase their implementation by households.

The source and sinks of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) due to anthropogenic and natural biospheric activities were estimated for the South Asian region (Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka). Flux estimates were based on top-down methods that use inversions of atmospheric data, and bottom-up methods that use field observations, satellite data, and terrestrial ecosystem models. Based on atmospheric CO2 inversions, the net biospheric CO2 flux in South Asia (equivalent to the Net Biome Productivity, NBP) was a sink, estimated at −104 ± 150 Tg C yr−1 during 2007–2008. Based on the bottom-up approach, the net biospheric CO2 flux is estimated to be −191 ± 193 Tg C yr−1 during the period of 2000–2009. This last net flux results from the following flux components: (1) the Net Ecosystem Productivity, NEP (net primary production minus heterotrophic respiration) of −220 ± 186 Tg C yr−1 (2) the annual net carbon flux from land-use change of −14 ± 50 Tg C yr−1, which resulted from a sink of −16 Tg C yr−1 due to the establishment of tree plantations and wood harvest, and a source of 2 Tg C yr−1 due to the expansion of croplands; (3) the riverine export flux from terrestrial ecosystems to the coastal oceans of +42.9 Tg C yr−1; and (4) the net CO2 emission due to biomass burning of +44.1 ± 13.7 Tg C yr−1. Including the emissions from the combustion of fossil fuels of 444 Tg C yr−1 for the 2000s, we estimate a net CO2 land–atmosphere flux of 297 Tg C yr−1. In addition to CO2, a fraction of the sequestered carbon in terrestrial ecosystems is released to the atmosphere as CH4. Based on bottom-up and top-down estimates, and chemistry-transport modeling, we estimate that 37 ± 3.7 Tg C yr−1 were released to atmosphere from South Asia during the 2000s. Taking all CO2 and CH4 fluxes together, our best estimate of the net land–atmosphere CO2-equivalent flux is a net source of 334 Tg C yr−1 for the South Asian region during the 2000s. If CH4 emissions are weighted by radiative forcing of molecular CH4, the total CO2-equivalent flux increases to 1148 Tg C yr−1 suggesting there is great potential of reducing CH4 emissions for stabilizing greenhouse gases concentrations.

nonlinMIP provides experiments that account for state-dependent regional and global climate responses. The experiments have two main applications: (1) to focus understanding of responses to CO2 forcing on states relevant to specific policy or scientific questions (e.g. change under low-forcing scenarios, the benefits of mitigation, or from past cold climates to the present day), or (2) to understand the state dependence (non-linearity) of climate change – i.e. why doubling the forcing may not double the response. State dependence (non-linearity) of responses can be large at regional scales, with important implications for understanding mechanisms and for general circulation model (GCM) emulation techniques (e.g. energy balance models and pattern-scaling methods). However, these processes are hard to explore using traditional experiments, which explains why they have had so little attention in previous studies. Some single model studies have established novel analysis principles and some physical mechanisms. There is now a need to explore robustness and uncertainty in such mechanisms across a range of models (point 2 above), and, more broadly, to focus work on understanding the response to CO2 on climate states relevant to specific policy/science questions (point 1). nonlinMIP addresses this using a simple, small set of CO2-forced experiments that are able to separate linear and non-linear mechanisms cleanly, with a good signal-to-noise ratio – while being demonstrably traceable to realistic transient scenarios. The design builds on the CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) and CMIP6 DECK (Diagnostic, Evaluation and Characterization of Klima) protocols, and is centred around a suite of instantaneous atmospheric CO2 change experiments, with a ramp-up–ramp-down experiment to test traceability to gradual forcing scenarios. In all cases the models are intended to be used with CO2 concentrations rather than CO2 emissions as the input. The understanding gained will help interpret the spread in policy-relevant scenario projections. Here we outline the basic physical principles behind nonlinMIP, and the method of establishing traceability from abruptCO2 to gradual forcing experiments, before detailing the experimental design, and finally some analysis principles. The test of traceability from abruptCO2 to transient experiments is recommended as a standard analysis within the CMIP5 and CMIP6 DECK protocols.

Globally, freshwater shortage is one of the most dangerous risks for society. Changing hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions have aggravated water scarcity over the past decades. A wide range of studies show that water scarcity will intensify in the future, as a result of both increased consumptive water use and, in some regions, climate change. Although it is well-known that El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects patterns of precipitation and drought at global and regional scales, little attention has yet been paid to the impacts of climate variability on water scarcity conditions, despite its importance for adaptation planning. Therefore, we present the first global-scale sensitivity assessment of water scarcity to ENSO, the most dominant signal of climate variability. We show that over the time period 1961–2010, both water availability and water scarcity conditions are significantly correlated with ENSO-driven climate variability over a large proportion of the global land area (> 28.1 %); an area inhabited by more than 31.4 % of the global population. We also found, however, that climate variability alone is often not enough to trigger the actual incidence of water scarcity events. The sensitivity of a region to water scarcity events, expressed in terms of land area or population exposed, is determined by both hydro-climatic and socioeconomic conditions. Currently, the population actually impacted by water scarcity events consists of 39.6 % (CTA: consumption-to-availability ratio) and 41.1 % (WCI: water crowding index) of the global population, whilst only 11.4 % (CTA) and 15.9 % (WCI) of the global population is at the same time living in areas sensitive to ENSO-driven climate variability. These results are contrasted, however, by differences in growth rates found under changing socioeconomic conditions, which are relatively high in regions exposed to water scarcity events. Given the correlations found between ENSO and water availability and scarcity conditions, and the relative developments of water scarcity impacts under changing socioeconomic conditions, we suggest that there is potential for ENSO-based adaptation and risk reduction that could be facilitated by more research on this emerging topic.