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The paper investigates the impact of import competition on rent-sharing between firms and employees. First, by applying recent advances in the estimation of price-costs margins to a large panel of French manufacturing firms for the period 1993–2007,we are able to classify each firm into labor- and product-market regimes based on the presence/absence of market power. Second, we concentrate on firms that operate in an efficient bargaining framework to study the effect of import penetration on workers’ bargaining power. We find that French imports from other OECD countries have a negative effect on bargaining power, whereas the impact of imports from low wage countries is more muted. By providing firm-level evidence on the relationship between international trade and rent sharing, the paper sheds new light on the effect of trade liberalization on the labor market.

This paper examines the impact of U.S. market access on local labor markets in a developing country, Vietnam. The study finds that following the implementation of the Vietnam–United States bilateral trade agreement in December 2001, manufacturing employment increased in provinces that were more exposed to U.S. tariff cuts. In those provinces, employment also increased in many service sectors, reflecting strong spillovers of job gains. The new job opportunities have attracted labor from agriculture, thus reducing agricultural employment. The paper examines three possible channels of job gain spillovers, namely, demand, production, and real estate. Although there is evidence for all three channels, the demand channel is the most important.

This paper shows that globalization has far-reaching implications for the economy's fertility rate and family structure because they influence work-life balance. Employing population register data on new births, marriages, and divorces together with employer-employee linked data for Denmark, we show that lower labor market opportunities due to Chinese import competition lead to a shift towards family, with more parental leave taking and higher fertility as well as more marriages and fewer divorces. This pro-family, pro-child shift is driven largely by women, not men. Correspondingly, the negative earnings implications of the rising import competition are concentrated on women, and gender earnings inequality increases. We show that the choice of market versus family is a major determinant of worker adjustment costs to labor market shocks. While older workers respond to the shock rather similarly whether female or not, for young workers the fertility response takes away the adjustment advantage they typically have-if the worker is a woman. We find that the female biological clock-women have difficulties to conceive beyond their early forties-is central for the gender differential, rather than the composition of jobs and workplaces, as well as other potential causes.

This study uses firm level data on 19 Sub-Saharan Africa countries between 2004 and 2016 to provide a rigorous analysis on the impact of Chinese import competition on productivity, skills, and performance of firms., We measure import competition and ports accessibility at the city-industry level to identify the relevance of firms’ location in determining the impact of Chinese imports competition. To address endogeneity concerns, a time-varying instrument for Chinese imports based on the interaction between an exogenous geographic characteristic and a shock in transportation technology is developed. The results show that imports competition has a positive impact on firm performance, mainly in terms of productivity catch-up and skills upgrading. Of particular interest is the finding that the effects of import competition from China are stronger for more remote firms that have lower port accessibility, an indication that Chinese imports in remote areas improves productivity of laggard firms, employment, and intensity of skilled workers. Our findings indicate that African firms are improving their performance as a consequence of the higher Chinese import intensity, mainly through direct competition and the use of higher quality inputs of production sourced from China.

We analyze the effects of the increase in China's import competition on Mexican domestic and international migration. We exploit the variation in exposure to competition from China, following its accession to the WTO in 2001, across Mexican municipalities and estimate the effect of international competition on the individual decision to migrate. Controlling for individual and municipality features, we find that individuals living in municipalities more exposed to Chinese import competition are more likely to migrate to other municipalities within Mexico, while a negative effect is found on the decision to migrate to the US. In particular, we find that Chinese import competition reduces migrants' negative self- selection: the rising international competition lowers the likelihood of low-educated, low-income people to migrate to the US, by making them more financially constrained. We do not find any evidence that changes in demand for Mexican workers in the US drive our results.

Published online: 19 December 2017 Germany and Italy are the largest manufacturing producers in Europe and export over 70% of their products to OECD countries. While they share many characteristics, they are also diverse in term of specialization and destination markets. Italy has a productive structure largely based on labour intensive sectors, while Germany is mainly specialized in high-tech goods. We study whether these characteristics make the two countries vulnerable in different ways to the competitive pressure by emerging economies, especially China, which experienced the strongest increase in export market share during the last decades. We discuss the impact of China on the export performance of Italy and Germany on OECD markets. Using data for the period 1995-2009, we implement a novel model to account for two important data characteristics: their hierarchical hidden structure (captured by a multilevel model) and the heterogeneity of the export shares (captured by a quantile approach). Results show that Chinese competition on Italy's and Germany's market shares differ by sectors, but, on average, Italy is not more vulnerable than Germany. These results are relevant for policy implications and for an ex-post analysis of the best response' to the Chinese competition.

We exploit the gender-specific components of large-scale labor demand shocks stemming from rising international manufacturing competition to test how shifts in the relative economic stature of young men versus young women affected marriage, fertility and children’s living circumstances during 1990-2014. On average, trade shocks differentially reduce employment and earnings of young adult males. Consistent with Becker’s model of household specialization, shocks to male’s relative earnings reduce marriage and fertility. Consistent with prominent sociological accounts, these shocks heighten male idleness and premature mortality, and raise the share of mothers who are unwed and the share of children living in below-poverty, single-headed households.

This article investigates the impact of import competition on firm exit from the manufacturing industries of eight European Union countries. A distinction is made between imports originating from low-cost countries and other imports. While the exit of small firms is high and small firms react strongly to import competition originating from other advanced countries, their exit is not found to be directly affected by imports from low-cost countries. Conversely, the exit rate of larger firms is much smaller in magnitude, but their exit is systematically and positively related to growing imports from low-cost countries. Such empirical evidence is consistent with small and larger firms making up different strategic groups within the same industries, where they face foreign competition of a different nature.

This dissertation consists of three related research papers on the topic of the redistribution effect of international trade in the labor market. In the first chapter, titled "Trade and Manufacturing Job Reallocations", I conduct an empirical cross-country evaluation on the effect of import competition into the dynamic of labor market through simultaneous job creation and job destruction in manufacturing sectors. Instead of using a conventional employment growth measurement, I construct an alternative measurement that will allow for simultaneous job creation and destruction. The finding of this chapter shows that the lack of import competition did not stimulate job creation, but it does prevent job destruction. The second chapter, titled "Wage Inequalities in High Technology Exporting Countries: A Cross-Country Examination of the Skill-Biased Technological Change (SBTC) Hypothesis", is a cross-country empirical investigation of the role of SBTC in explaining the increasing between-skill wage inequalities at global level. In this chapter, I took advantage of the U.S. Census Bureau's Advance Technological Product (ATP) classification to differentiate the technological content of cross-country trade commodities by pairing the INDSTAT\footnote{Data on earnings and employment in 4-digit ISIC Rev. 3 categories for Manufacturing Sector} database published by United Nations Industrial Development Organization (UNIDO) with United Nations Commodity Trade (UNCOMTRADE)'s trade database and classify each ISIC Rev.3 sub-sector of manufacturing that has at least one of their output(s) classified as an ATP into "ATP-Producing Sector". Under the premise that ATP-Producing sector will require a more skilled worker compared to the Non ATP-Producing sector, these new measurements can give us an outlook on the implication of SBTC at the cross-country level. Using this alternative measurement, I find that an increase in the intensity of technological content in sub-industry level, indicated by a growth in the share of ATP, has a statistically significant positive effect on inter-industry inequality within country measured by Theil Index and Wage Premium of the ATP-producing sector. Also, a broader measurement of economy-wide inequality reveals inverted U-shaped relationship between Gini Coefficient and share of ATP. The third chapter, titled "The Impact of Trans-Pacific Partnership on Unemployment", has the objective to simulate the economy-wide effect of the implementation of TPP on the labor market of participating and non-participating countries using modified GTAP (Global Trade Analysis Project) model. To meet this objective, modification on standard GTAP model is required to include endogenous labor supply that will allow us to relax the perfect market clearing assumption of the GTAP model. From the simulation result, the implementation of TPP is projected to contribute a net employment loss for the United States economy of 52,090 jobs. Nevertheless, compared to the whole labor force, the loss of jobs in the U.S. is relatively mild at only -0.0035 percent of the labor force for skilled labor and -0.0382 percent for unskilled labor. Meanwhile, Vietnam and Japan are the core member of TPP that is expected to benefit the most out of TPP in terms of net job creation, the withdrawal of the U.S. from the agreement will dampened the effect for these countries but will not totally negate the positive net job creation.

This paper examines the hypothesis that manufacturing industries in Japan that have been exposed to import competition from the People's Republic of China (PRC) experience greater skill upgrading (increased demand for skilled workers). Using an industry panel dataset over the period 1980-2010, we exploit variations of worker skill categories by occupation, paired with detailed information and communication technology investment data in the employment share regression. We find that while the PRC's comparative advantages in exports have shifted from labor-intensive to more capital-intensive products, this has not resulted in substituting skilled workers in Japanese manufacturing. Rather, it has had the profound positive effect of raising overall demand for skilled workers. Most of the competition effects were felt among production workers, leaving middle-skilled workers largely unaffected.

The rise of radical right parties is a Europe-wide phenomenon. While many studies describe the individual or regional characteristics associated with high propensity to vote for the far-right, we know little about the causal impact of economic shocks on electoral support for the far-right. Over the period 1995-2012, we examine the impact of trade-shocks, measured as exposure to low-wage country import competition, on the local vote share of the National Front, the French main far-right party, during presidential elections. We use small communities (cantons) as units of observations and include province (département) fixed effects, so that the identifying variation comes from within-province change in imports exposure over time. We find evidence of a small but significantly positive impact of import competition exposure on votes for the far-right: a one standard-deviation increase in imports-per-worker causes the change in the far-right share to increase by 7 percent of a standard deviation. Further results suggest that this effect has been increasing over the time period considered. We conduct a simple sensitivity test supporting the notion that (i) omitting local share of immigrants is likely to bias our estimate downward, and that (ii) this bias is likely to negligible.

The thesis consists of three empirical essays on the topics of self-employment, happiness and international trade. Essay 1 studies how immigrant self-employment entry is affected by the local business cycle in Sweden. Using the unemployment rate at the local labour market level as a proxy for the local business cycle, our study shows that the self-employment entry behaviour for native men and immigrant men is negatively affected by the unemployment rate, except for immigrants from Middle East. However, such a negative effect is quantitatively weaker among the non-European immigrants. Further, the result shows that immigrants from the Middle East are positively affected by the unemployment rate, meaning they are more likely to be pushed into self-employment in recessions. For women, we also find the unemployment rate has a negative impact on the self-employment decision of native women and immigrant women, except for the Middle East group. However, compared with men, the quantitative size of the unemployment rate effect on self-employment is smaller among women, implying the less important role of business cycle in determining females’ entry into self-employment. Essay 2 investigates the non-pecuniary return of self-employment in China. The results show that the life satisfaction of self-employed men is significantly higher than that of wage-employed men; the life satisfaction of self-employed women is not statistically significant different from that of wage-employed women. Moreover, we show that the life satisfaction of self-employed men in the informal sector is significantly higher than that of wage-employed men in the formal sector. The life satisfaction of wage-employed men in the informal sector is not significantly different from that of wage-employed men in the formal sector. For women, we find that there is no significant life satisfaction disparity between workers in the formal and informal sector. Finally, our job satisfaction data also concludes that self-employment in China is not inferior to wage employment. Essay 3 evaluates how Swedish manufacturing employment is affected by the increasing import competition from China. The results show that the growth of manufacturing employment is not statistically significant affected by the increasing import competition from China. Moreover, in general, the increasing import exposure from China does not significantly affect the employment growth of non-manufacturing sector either. Regarding the earnings, the analysis shows that the low wage earners in the manufacturing sector is not significantly affected by the increasing import penetration from China while median and high wage earners are positively affected.

We present evidence that the negative effect of the China shock on US manufacturing employment is lower for industries that use services inputs more intensively. Different potential mechanisms for this finding are analyzed. This reveals significant heterogeneity across different types of services and their potential role in affecting labor demand and supply responses to greater import competition.

In recent years, manufacturing firms in the United States have faced increasing import competition from low-wage countries, especially China. Does this competition hurt or help innovation by firms? This paper studies the effect of the surge in imports from China on innovation in the US manufacturing sector. We combine patent, firm and trade data during 1990-2006 for US publicly-listed firms in the Compustat dataset. We find consistent evidence that Chinese import competition had a positive effect on firm innovation, as measured by citation-weighted patent applications. This positive effect persists when we instrument import competition in the US by using Chinese import penetration in the United Kingdom. Next we investigate this relationship between import competition and innovation by considering industry and firm heterogeneity. We find that firms in low-tech industries and those with a lower degree of product differentiation show a significant positive response to import competition. Firms with a higher capital intensity and lower labor productivity also exhibit a greater response. These results are shown to be robust to a variety of measures for import penetration and innovation.

This study considers for the first time the role of rising import competition on employment in Vietnam. Using a time differenced and instrumental variables approach, our study shows that import competition results in employment contraction. Firms operating in industries that face greater import competition have reduced employment. We also find strong evidence of a negative impact of import competition for small and very small firms, as well as in the period before Vietnam’s World Trade Organization (WTO) accession. Our results also reveal that previous studies at the industry-level can provide biased estimates because of not controlling for the heterogeneity of firm characteristics.

Does the selection effect of trade work solely through competition from imports, or does the export market further contribute to firm selection? This paper provides a re-interpretation of the different mechanisms in terms of selection on profitability - rather than productivity - and derives novel predictions regarding the export market and the role of product differentiation. Empirical results for a sample of Danish manufacturing industries confirm the import- "push" hypothesis as well as the export- "pull" hypothesis, but also reveal differences across industries. The selection effect of trade is mainly driven by the "import-push" if product differentiation is high, whereas it is driven by the "export-pull" if goods are homogeneous.

We apply a simple method to study the relative quality of Chinese versus European products exported in the clothing sector after the end of the Multi-Fiber Arrangement. Based on the model of Foster et al., (2008), we interpret the change in relative export prices and quantities sold in narrowly defined product categories as an indicator of quality shifts. Using UN Comtrade data, we find that European varieties exported to the US typically sell for a higher price than identical Chinese varieties exported to the US, but this price gap is narrowing. Despite rising prices, Chinese varieties are gaining market share. This opposite movement of relative prices and quantities sold in the same destination market are a strong indication of China’s moving up the quality ladder in its clothing exports relative to the EU. While European core products in clothing are stable over time, Chinese exports show product dynamics with exit and entry of new core products every year.

This paper surveys empirically the broad features of trade policy in goods for 31 major economies that collectively represented 83 percent of the world's population and 91 percent of the world's GDP in 2013. It addresses the following five questions: Do some countries have more liberal trading regimes than others? Within countries, which industries receive the most import protection? How do trade policies change over time? Do countries discriminate among their trading partners when setting trade policy? Finally, how liberalized is world trade? The analysis documents the extent of cross-sectional heterogeneity in applied commercial policy across countries, their economic sectors, and their trading partners, over time. It concludes that substantial trade policy barriers remain as an important feature of the world economy.

An efficient and transparent regulatory framework governing international trade is a necessary condition for countries to realize the benefits of international trade. Over the last decade, Lao PDR has been deepening its economic ties with the global economy through the formal accession to the WTO in 2013. At the regional level, the country is committed to be full member of the ASEAN Economic Community. These agreements entailed profound changes to Lao PDR’s regulatory framework governing international trade. This report provides an overview of the incidence on NTMs on import flows in Lao PDR before and after WTO accession and identifies lingering regulatory hurdles that may still hamper the ability of the country to reap the gains of a deeper integration. Employing detailed and comparable NTM information, this note characterizes the changes in the trade related regulatory framework in Lao PDR and compares the current scheme with that of other countries in Asia. The report also combines econometric estimations of Ad-Valorem Equivalents (AVEs) of NTMs with qualitative information collected through fieldwork to identify priority measure to streamline. This report is organized as follows. Section two discusses main conceptual issues and presents the data and metrics to examine the role of NTMs in import flows. Section three, describes the trade incidence of NTMs and compares it with similar countries and with the situation prior to WTO accession. Section four combines an econometric technique with qualitative information to discuss the stringency of NTMs. Section five presents some concluding remarks and provides some recommendation for reform.

We study how foreign competition affects the composition of investments inside firms. A parsimonious model predicts that firms have an incentive to shift their investments towards more short-term assets when exposed to tougher competition. Using data on expenditures of listed US companies into various asset classes with different lifespans, we document empirical evidence that is consistent with this prediction. Over a fifteen year period between 1995 and 2009, the rise in import competition is associated with a reduction of the firm-specific asset lifespan by about 4.5% on average. We additionally exploit the Chinese WTO accession as an exogenous shock in firm expectations about future exposure to competition.

This paper provides new evidence on the reallocation of workers across firms and industries with different technologies in response to increased import competition from developing countries. Using employer-employee matched data for the Swedish manufacturing sector, we find increased assortative matching of workers in ICT (information and communication technologies) intensive industries, that is, high(low)-wage workers sort into high(low)-wage firms. Industries with low ICT intensity do not exhibit these sorting patterns. A labour market matching model explains the increased assortative matching in ICT intensive industries in response to stronger import competition through an increase in the relative demand for qualified workers.

We analyze the effect of import competition on household balance sheets from 2000 to 2007 using individual-level data on leverage and defaults. We exploit cross-regional variation in exposure to foreign import competition using industry level shipping costs and initial differences in regions' industry specialization. We confirm the adverse effect of import competition on local labor markets during this period (Autor et al. 2013). We then show that household debt increased significantly in regions where manufacturing industries are more exposed to import competition. A one standard deviation in exposure to import competition explains 30% of the cross-regional variation in the growth in household leverage over the period. Our results highlight the interaction of credit supply and demand as a driver of increased mortgage borrowing in the run-up to the financial crisis.

This paper investigates the effect of tariffs and non-tariff measures on efforts to upgrade product quality. Following conventional approaches to quality measurement, we examine disaggregated data covering the European Union's food imports from 159 trading partners from 1995 to 2003 across 28 food industries. Food product import tariffs and non-tariff measures are found to affect the rate of quality upgrading. Furthermore, we find the effect of import standard enforcement on quality upgrading to be non-monotonic, in that the products close to the world technology frontier are more likely to upgrade, while those distant from the frontier are less likely to upgrade.

We analyse the effects of imports on employment and earnings by distinguishing between import competition in final products and firms' use of imports in production (offshoring). We use Finnish worker-firm data merged with product-level trade data. We focus on Chinese imports and instrument them by changes in China's share of world exports to other EU countries. Both types of importing increase the job loss risk for all workers and, in particular, for workers in production occupations. An increase in import competition has larger negative effects than an increase in offshoring. Production workers suffer the largest earnings losses, while for high- skilled workers the wage-effect is positive.

Job polarization is the shift of employment and earnings from mid-level wage jobs to both high- and low-wage jobs. Using longitudinal employee-employer matched data covering all residents and workplaces in Denmark, we study the effect of international trade on job polarization as trade barriers fell away with China's entry into the World Trade Organization. We show that trade can explain the U-shaped pattern of employment changes that is characteristic for job polarization. For the large mid-level wage group of machine operators, already adversely by automatization and the introduction of robots, import competition leads to a loss of eight months of mid-wage employment, and increases of both low-wage and high-wage employment of about four months and one month respectively over a period of eight years. Trade leads to job polarization mainly by shifting workers from initially abundant manufacturing jobs to both high- and low-paying services jobs. Trade leads to less job polarization for women than for men even though women experience overall job polarization more than men, a finding that we relate to the swiftness of the reduction in labor demand caused by import competition. Furthermore, trade has increased gender inequality by shifting women to a lesser extent into high-wage jobs than men. We discuss a number of reasons that might be behind these findings, as well as possible policy implications.

This article examines the validity of the “endogenous tariff model” in Korea. For many developed countries, accounting for a tariff in its endogenous notion has become increasingly important as special interest groups play pivotal roles in shaping trade policy. Yet, little evidence exists on the determinants of tariffs in Korea. Korea is an interesting case in that its protectivemeasures have been strategically designed and extensively implemented as a means tosuccessful economic development. With a full set of industry specific cross-sectional data, utilizing a simultaneous equation system, the study finds that: 1) a smaller number of establishments alleviates the free-rider problem, reducing transaction costs and thereby increasing the level of protection, 2) even though import competition intensifies in the short run, it does not necessarily lead to a higher level of protection.

This paper examines industry level responses of manufacturing employment in the context of globalization using a large sample of developed, developing and transition economies. We find that developing countries need atypically high rates of value added growth (about 10%) to increase manufacturing employment appreciably (about 4%). The employment benefits of export-orientation are also modest even in "comparative advantage" industries of developing countries. However, diversifying the export basket contributes significantly to employment growth, particularly in the medium- and high-technology industries. Import-competition does not undermine employment growth in low-technology industries of developing countries while it displaces jobs in the same industries in OECD and transition economies. For developing countries, import-induced job losses are higher in the more capital-intensive medium-technology industries. Jobs in high-technology industries are less sensitive to imports with positive relationships observed in the OECD. Investment also complements job creation in lowtechnology industries of developing countries that have yet to industrialize.

We analyze the effects of the increase in China’s import competition on Mexican domestic and international migration. We exploit the variation in exposure to competition from China, following its accession to the WTO in 2001, across Mexican municipalities and estimate the effect of international competition on the individual decision to migrate. Controlling for individual and municipality features, we find that individuals living in municipalities more exposed to Chinese import competition are more likely to migrate to other municipalities within Mexico, while a negative effect is found on the decision to migrate to the US. In particular, we find that Chinese import competition reduces migrants’ negative self-selection: the rising international competition lowers the likelihood of low-educated, low-income people to migrate to the US, by making them more financially constrained. (Less)

This paper examines the cross-country income and welfare consequences of trade-induced human capital (dis-)accumulation. The model is based on heterogeneous workers who make educational decisions in the presence of complete markets. When such heterogeneous workers invest in schooling, high type agents earn a surplus from their investment. In the presence of cross-country differences in skill-augmenting technology, trade shifts this surplus to rich countries that can use skills more efficiently. Thus, while the static gains from trade may lead to convergence, the dynamic gains from trade occur to initially rich countries, thus leading to cross-country divergence of income and welfare. The second part of the paper endogenizes world prices, documenting that as trade liberalization concentrates skills in countries with a high level of skill augmenting technology, it thereby increases the effective global supply of skilled labor. Despite the resulting decline in the price of skill-intensive goods, trade is shown to be skill-biased.

The WTO has delivered policy outcomes that are very different from those likely to emerge out of the recent wave of preferential trade agreements (PTAs). Should economists see this as an efficient institutional hand-off, where the WTO has carried trade liberalization as far as it can manage, and is now passing the baton to PTAs to finish the job? This paper surveys a growing economics literature on international trade agreements and argues on this basis that the WTO is not passé. Rather, and subject to some caveats, this survey of research to date suggests that the WTO warrants strong support while a more cautious view of PTAs seems appropriate.

This paper investigates how internal migration is affected by Brazil’s increased integration into the world economy. It analyzes the impact of regional differences in access to foreign demand on sector-specific bilateral migration rates between the Brazilian states for the years 1995 to 2003. Using international trade data, a foreign market access measure is computed at the sectoral level, which is exogenous to domestic migration. A higher foreign market access is associated with a higher local labor demand and attracts workers via two potential channels: higher wages and new job opportunities. Results show that both channels play a significant role in internal migration. Further, we find a heterogeneous impact across industries, according to their comparative advantage on the world market. However, the observed impact is driven by the strong reaction of low-educated workers to changes in market access. This finding is consistent with the fact that Brazil is exporting mainly goods that are intensive in unskilled labor.

A variety of empirical and theoretical trade papers have suggested and documented a positive impact of trade on the productivity of firms. However, there is less consensus about the underlying mechanism at work. While trade papers focus on access to export markets, other papers stress the importance of import competition. Since imports and exports (and even tariffs affecting either) are usually highly correlated, it is unclear which mechanism the existing empirical papers uncover. This paper conducts a "horse race" between export opportunities and import competition. Using Spanish firm level data, instrumenting for exports and imports with tariff changes and controlling for selection, I find robust evidence that access to export markets leads to productivity increases, but only for firms that were already highly productive before. The evidence on import competition is weaker. If anything, initially low-tech firms manage to increase their productivity in response to increased competition from abroad. The latter finding is at odds with most trade models, so I propose a model incorporating non-profit maximizing managers to reconcile theory with the evidence. Empirically, I find that all productivity upgrades are driven by increased R&D, patenting, and product innovation. Access to export markets also leads to the adaptation of foreign technologies. There is no evidence that either mechanism leads to increased full time employment, instead full time workers seem to be replaced by part-time or temporary workers.