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Carbon dioxide (CO2) transfer from inland waters to the atmosphere, known as CO2 evasion, is a component of the global carbon cycle. Global estimates of CO2 evasion have been hampered, however, by the lack of a framework for estimating the inland water surface area and gas transfer velocity and by the absence of a global CO2 database. Here we report regional variations in global inland water surface area, dissolved CO2 and gas transfer velocity. We obtain global CO2 evasion rates of 1.8(-0.25)(+0.25) petagrams of carbon (Pg C) per year from streams and rivers and 0.32(-0.26)(+0.52) Pg C yr(-1) from lakes and reservoirs, where the upper and lower limits are respectively the 5th and 95th confidence interval percentiles. The resulting global evasion rate of 2.1 Pg C yr(-1) is higher than previous estimates owing to a larger stream and river evasion rate. Our analysis predicts global hotspots in stream and river evasion, with about 70 per cent of the flux occurring over just 20 per cent of the land surface. The source of inland water CO2 is still not known with certainty and new studies are needed to research the mechanisms controlling CO2 evasion globally.

Vi vet idag mycket mer om de skadliga effekterna av dammar och flödesreglering, än vad som var känt då vattenkraften byggdes ut i Sverige. I en ny utredning föreslås också flera viktiga åtgärder där miljö och fiskvägar skyddas. Vi hoppas nu att Sveriges regering är beredd att ta steget och lagstifta för att genomföra de förslag som finns för att bättre skydda åar och älvar, skriver fyra professorer.

Current predictions of climate-related changes in high-latitude environments suggest major effects on the C export in streams and rivers. To what extent this will also affect the stream water CO2 concentrations is poorly understood. In this study we examined the spatiotemporal variation in partial pressure of CO2 (pCO(2)) and in stable isotopic composition of dissolved inorganic carbon (delta C-13-DIC) in subarctic streams in northern Sweden. The selected watersheds are characterized by large variations in high-latitude boreal forest and tundra and differences in bedrock. We found that all streams generally were supersaturated in pCO(2) with an average concentration of 850 mu atm. The variability in pCO(2) across streams was poorly related to vegetation cover, and carbonaceous bedrock influence was manifested in high DIC concentrations but not reflected in either stream pCO(2) or delta C-13-DIC. Stream water pCO(2) values were highest during winter base flow when we also observed the lowest delta C-13-DIC values, and this pattern is interpreted as a high contribution from CO2 from soil respiration. Summer base flow delta C-13-DIC values probably are more affected by in situ stream processes such as aquatic production/respiration and degassing. A challenge for further studies will be to disentangle the origin of stream water CO2 and quantify their relative importance.

Human activities have substantial impacts on marine ecosystems, including rapid regime shifts with large consequences for human well-being. We highlight the use of model-based scenarios as a scientific tool for adaptive stewardship in the face of such consequences. The natural sciences have a long history of developing scenarios but rarely with an in-depth understanding of factors influencing human actions. Social scientists have traditionally investigated human behavior, but scholars often argue that behavior is too complex to be repre-ented by broad generalizations useful for models and scenarios. We address this scientific divide with a framework for integrated marine social ecological scenarios, combining quantitative process-based models from the biogeochemical and ecological disciplines with qualitative studies on governance and social change. The aim is to develop policy-relevant scenarios based on an in-depth empirical understanding from both the natural and the social sciences, thereby contributing to adaptive stewardship of marine social-ecological systems., AuthorCount:19

We examined the Si isotope fractionation by following a massive nutrient limited diatom bloom in a eutrophied natural system. The Oder River, which is a eutrophied river draining the western half of Poland and entering the southern Baltic Sea, exhibits diatom blooms that cause extreme Si isotope fractionation. The rapid nutrient depletion and fast BSi increase observed during the spring bloom suggest a closed system Rayleigh behavior for DSi and BSi in the river at certain time scales. A Si isotope fractionation factor ((30)epsilon(Dsi-Bsi)) of -1.6 +/- 0.31%. (2 sigma) is found based on observations between April and June, 2004. A very high delta Si-30 value of up to +3.05 parts per thousand. is measured in BSi derived from diatoms. This is about 2 times higher than previously recorded delta Si-30 in freshwater diatoms. The Rayleigh model used to predict the delta Si-30 values of DSi suggests that the initial value before the start of the diatom bloom is close to +2 parts per thousand, which is relatively higher than the previously reported values in other river water. This indicates that there is a biological control of the Si isotope compositions entering the river, probably caused by Si isotope fractionation during uptake of Si in phytoliths. Clearly, eutrophied rivers with enhanced diatom blooms deliver Si-30-enriched DSi and BSi to the coastal ocean, which can be used to trace the biogeochemistry of DSi/BSi in estuaries., AuthorCount:5

Possible future changes in Baltic Sea acid–base (pH) and oxygen balances were studied using a catchment–sea coupled model system and numerical experiments based on meteorological and hydrological forcing datasets and scenarios. By using objective statistical methods, climate runs for present climate conditions were examined and evaluated using Baltic Sea modelling. The results indicate that increased nutrient loads will not inhibit future Baltic Sea acidification; instead, the seasonal pH cycle will be amplified by increased biological production and mineralization. All examined scenarios indicate future acidification of the whole Baltic Sea that is insensitive to the chosen global climate model. The main factor controlling the direction and magnitude of future pH changes is atmospheric CO2 concentration (i.e. emissions). Climate change and land-derived changes (e.g. nutrient loads) affect acidification mainly by altering the seasonal cycle and deep-water conditions. Apart from decreasing pH, we also project a decreased saturation state of calcium carbonate, decreased respiration index and increasing hypoxic area – all factors that will threaten the marine ecosystem. We demonstrate that substantial reductions in fossil-fuel burning are needed to minimise the coming pH decrease and that substantial reductions in nutrient loads are needed to reduce the coming increase in hypoxic and anoxic waters.

High-latitude regions are underlain by the most organic carbon (OC)-rich soils on earth and currently subject to intense climate warming, potentially increasing remobilization and mineralization of soil OC. Sub-Arctic Scandinavia is located on the 0°C mean annual isotherm and is therefore particularly vulnerable to climate change. This study aimed to establish a baseline for soil OC release over the past century into Lake Torneträsk, the largest lake in sub-Arctic Scandinavia, through bulk geochemical and molecular radiocarbon analyses in chronologically constrained sediment cores. Our results suggest a dominance of peat-derived terrestrial OC inflow. We show that the annual terrestrial OC inflow to the lake is ∼12 times higher than the in-lake produced particulate OC, and consists for a large part (ca. 60%) of old OC from deep reservoirs in the catchment. The sedimentary record shows signs of increasing inflow of more degraded terrestrial matter since ∼1975, as indicated by increasing %TOC concentrations, a lower δ13C value and lower TOC:TN ratios. Based on simultaneous changes in local climate and reported signs of permafrost degradation (e.g., active layer deepening, mire/peat erosion), the observed changes in the sedimentary record of Scandinavia's largest mountain lake likely reflect a climate warming-induced change in terrestrial OC inflow.

We present the first estimates of net anthropogenic nitrogen input (NANI) in European boreal catchments. In Swedish catchments, nitrogen (N) deposition is a major N input (31-94%). Hence, we used two different N deposition inputs to calculate NANI for 36 major Swedish catchments. The relationship between riverine N export and NANI was strongest when using only oxidized deposition (NOy) as atmospheric input (r(2) = 0.70) rather than total deposition (i.e., both oxidized and reduced nitrogen, NOy + NHx deposition, r(2) = 0.62). The y-intercept (NANI = 0) for the NANI calculated with NOy is significantly different from zero (p = 0.0042*) and indicates a background flux from the catchment of some 100 kg N km(-2) year(-1) in addition to anthropogenic inputs. This agrees with similar results from North American boreal catchments. The slope of the linear regressions was 0.25 for both N deposition inputs (NOy and NOy + NHx), suggesting that on average, 25% of the anthropogenic N inputs is exported by rivers to the Baltic Sea. Agricultural catchments in central and southern Sweden have increased their riverine N export up to tenfold compared to the inferred background flux. Although the relatively unperturbed northernmost catchments receive significant N loads from atmospheric deposition, these catchments do not show significantly elevated riverine N export. The fact that nitrogen export in Swedish catchments appears to be higher in proportion to NANI at higher loads suggests that N retention may be saturating as loading rates increase. In northern and western Sweden the export of nitrogen is largely controlled by the hydraulic load, i.e., the riverine discharge normalized by water surface area, which has units of distance time(-1). Besides hydraulic load the percent total forest cover also affects the nitrogen export primarily in the northern and western catchments., AuthorCount:4

The NANI/NAPI (net anthropogenic nitrogen/phosphorus input) Calculator Toolbox described in this paper is designed to address the consequences to Baltic Sea nutrient loads of the significant variation in agronomic practices and dietary preferences among European countries whose watersheds comprise the Baltic Sea basin. A primary objective of this work is to develop regional parameters and datasets for this budgeting tool. A previous version of the toolbox was applied to the entire contiguous United States to calculate NANI and its components (atmospheric N deposition, fertilizer N application, agricultural N fixation and N in net food and feed imports). Here, it is modified for application to the Baltic Sea catchments, where coastal watersheds from several countries are draining to international waters. A similar accounting approach is taken for calculating NAPI, which includes fertilizer P application, P in net food and feed imports and non-food use of P by human. Regional variation of NANI/NAPI parameters (agricultural fixation rates, human intake rates and livestock intake and excretion rates) are estimated, and their impact on the regional nutrient budget and the riverine nutrient flux is evaluated. There is a distinct north-to-south gradient in NANI and NAPI across the Baltic Sea catchments, and regional nutrient inputs are strongly related to riverine nutrient fluxes. Analysis of regional nutrient retention pattern indicates that, for some countries, compliance to the Baltic Sea Action Plan would imply enormous changes in the agricultural sector., 8

The cycling of carbon on the Arctic shelves, including outgassing of CO2 to the atmosphere, is not clearly understood. Degradation of terrestrial organic carbon (OCter) has recently been shown to be pronounced over the East Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS), i.e. the Laptev and East Siberian Seas, producing dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC). To further explore the processes affecting DIC, an extensive suite of shelf water samples were collected during the summer of 2008, and assessed for the stable carbon isotopic composition of DIC (delta C-13(DIC)). The delta C-13(DIC) values varied between -7.2 parts per thousand to +1.6 parts per thousand and strongly deviated from the compositions expected from only mixing between river water and seawater. Model calculations suggest that the major processes causing these deviations from conservative mixing were addition of (DIC) by degradation of OCter, removal of DIC during primary production, and outgassing of CO2. All waters below the halocline in the ESAS had delta C-13(DIC) values that appear to reflect mixing of river water and seawater combined with additions of on average 70 +/- 20 mu M of DIC, originating from degradation of OCter in the coastal water column. This is of the same magnitude as the recently reported deficits of DOCter and POCter for the same waters. The surface waters in the East Siberian Sea had higher delta C-13(DIC) values and lower DIC concentrations than expected from conservative mixing, consistent with additions of DIC from degradation of OCter and outgassing of CO2. The outgassing of CO2 was equal to loss of 123 +/- 50 mu M DIC. Depleted delta C-13(POC) values of -29 parts per thousand to -32 parts per thousand in the mid to outer shelf regions are consistent with POC from phytoplankton production. The low delta C-13(POC) values are likely due to low delta C-13(DIC) of precursor DIC, which is due to degradation of OCter, rather than reflecting terrestrial input compositions. Overall, the delta C-13(DIC), AuthorCount:8

Social and ecological systems around the world are becoming increasingly globalized. From the standpoint of understanding coastal ecosystem behavior, system boundaries are not sufficient to define causes of change. A flutter in the stock market in Tokyo or Hong Kong can affect salmon producers in Norway or farmers in Togo. The globalization of opportunistic species and the disempowerment of people trying to manage their own affairs on a local scale seem to coincide with the globalization of trade. Human-accelerated environmental change, including climate change, can exacerbate this sense of disenfranchisement. The structure and functioning of coastal ecosystems have been developed over thousands of years subject to environmental forces and constraints imposed mainly on local scales. However, phenomena that transcend these conventional scales have emerged with the explosion of human population, and especially with the rise of modern global culture. Here, we examine five broad questions of scale in the coastal zone: (1) How big are coastal ecosystems and why should we care? (2) Temporal scales of change in coastal waters and watersheds: Can we detect shifting baselines due to economic development and other drivers? (3) Are footprints more important than boundaries? (4) What makes a decision big? The tyranny of small decisions in coastal regions. (5) Scales of complexity in coastal waters: the simple, the complicated or the complex? These questions do not have straightforward answers. There is no single scale for coastal ecosystems; their multiscale nature complicates our understanding and management of them. Coastal ecosystems depend on their watersheds as well as spatially-diffuse footprints associated with modern trade and material flows. Change occurs both rapidly and slowly on human time scales, and observing and responding to changes in coastal environments is a fundamental challenge. Apparently small human decisions collectively have potentially enormous consequ, 11

In recent years, watershed-scale nutrient accounting methods have been developed which provide a simple yet powerful approach to estimate major anthropogenic sources of nutrients to terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. For nitrogen (N), 'anthropogenic sources' include fertilizer, atmospheric N deposition, N fixation by plants (e.g. legumes), and the net import or export of N in human food and livestock feed, and are collectively referred to as Net Anthropogenic Nitrogen Inputs (NANI). Since the development of industrial N-fixing processes early in the 20th century, anthropogenic N inputs have grown to dominate the global N cycle, and have become the main sources of N in most watersheds affected by humans. It is now clear that riverine N transport from human-influenced watersheds to coastal waters is strongly related to NANI, as well as to hydroclimatic variables (precipitation, discharge, temperature) that can affect the amount of N retained in or removed from watersheds. Potential implications for increased N load from NANI include increased eutrophication, loss of species diversity and habitat, and growth of hypoxic areas ('dead zones') in coastal waters., AuthorCount:5

The aim of this study was to reconstruct diatom production in the subarctic northern tip of the Baltic Sea, Bothnian Bay, based on down-core analysis of Si isotopes in biogenic silica (BSi). Dating of the sediment showed that the samples covered the period 1820 to 2000. The sediment core record can be divided into two periods, an unperturbed period from 1820 to 1950 and a second period affected by human activities (from 1950 to 2000). This has been observed elsewhere in the Baltic Sea. The shift in the sediment core record after 1950 is likely caused by large scale damming of rivers. Diatom production was inferred from the Si isotope composition which ranged between δ30Si −0.18‰ and +0.58‰ in BSi, and assuming fractionation patterns due to the Raleigh distillation, the production was shown to be correlated with air and water temperature, which in turn were correlated with the mixed layer (ML) depth. The sedimentary record showed that the deeper ML depth observed in colder years resulted in less production of diatoms. Pelagic investigations in the 1990's have clearly shown that diatom production in the Baltic Sea is controlled by the ML depth. Especially after cold winters and deep water mixing, diatom production was limited and dissolved silicate (DSi) concentrations were not depleted in the water column after the spring bloom. Our method corroborates these findings and offers a new method to estimate diatom production over much longer periods of time in diatom dominated aquatic systems, i.e. a large part of the world's ocean and coastal seas.

In 2009, following approval of the European Marine Strategy Framework Directive (MSFD, 2008/56/EC), the European Commission (EC) created task groups to develop guidance for eleven quality descriptors that form the basis for evaluating ecosystem function. The objective was to provide European countries with practical guidelines for implementing the MSFD, and to produce a Commission Decision that encapsulated key points of the work in a legal framework. This paper presents a review of work carried out by the eutrophication task group, and reports our main findings to the scientific community. On the basis of an operational, management-oriented definition, we discuss the main methodologies that could be used for coastal and marine eutrophication assessment. Emphasis is placed on integrated approaches that account for physico-chemical and biological components, and combine both pelagic and benthic symptoms of eutrophication, in keeping with the holistic nature of the MSFD. We highlight general features that any marine eutrophication model should possess, rather than making specific recommendations. European seas range from highly eutrophic systems such as the Baltic to nutrient-poor environments such as the Aegean Sea. From a physical perspective, marine waters range from high energy environments of the north east Atlantic to the permanent vertical stratification of the Black Sea. This review aimed to encapsulate that variability, recognizing that meaningful guidance should be flexible enough to accommodate the widely differing characteristics of European seas, and that this information is potentially relevant in marine ecosystems worldwide. Given the spatial extent of the MSFD, innovative approaches are required to allow meaningful monitoring and assessment. Consequently, substantial logistic and financial challenges will drive research in areas such as remote sensing of harmful algal blooms, in situ sensor development, and mathematical models. Our review takes into ac

Nutrient loads from watersheds, atmospheric deposition, and cyanobacterial nitrogen fixation have led to eutrophication in the Baltic Sea. Here we give the historical evolution of this, detail some of the specific eutrophication features of the Baltic Sea, and examine future scenarios from climate related changes in the Baltic Sea region. We distinguish northern and southern regions of the Baltic Sea. The northern watersheds have sub-polar climate, are covered by boreal forest and wetlands, are sparsely populated, and the rivers drain into the Gulf of Bothnia. The southern watersheds have a marine influenced temperate climate, are more densely populated and are industrially highly developed. The southern areas are drained by several large rivers, including the representative Oder River. We compare these regions to better understand the present, and future changes in Baltic Sea eutrophication. Comparing the future projections for the two regions, we suggest that in addition to changes in nutrient inputs, increased temperature and precipitation are likely to become important forcings. Rising temperature may increase release of dissolved organic matter (DOM) from soils and may alter the vegetation cover which may in turn lead to changed nutrient and organic matter input to the Baltic Sea. For the southern Oder River catchment a model study of nutrient input is evaluated, MONERIS (Modelling Nutrient Emissions in River Systems). The strong correlation between precipitation, flow and nutrient discharge indicates a likely increase in nutrient concentrations from diffuse sources in future. The nutrients from the Oder River are modified in a lagoon, where removal processes change the stoichiometry, but have only minor effects on the productivity. We suggest that the lagoon and other nearshore areas fulfil important ecological services, especially the removal of large quantities of riverine nitrogen but at the same time are threatened systems due to increasing coastal hypoxia, authorCount :8

Hypoxia is a well-described phenomenon in the offshore waters of the Baltic Sea with both the spatial extent and intensity of hypoxia known to have increased due to anthropogenic eutrophication, however, an unknown amount of hypoxia is present in the coastal zone. Here we report on the widespread unprecedented occurrence of hypoxia across the coastal zone of the Baltic Sea. We have identified 115 sites that have experienced hypoxia during the period 1955-2009 increasing the global total to ca. 500 sites, with the Baltic Sea coastal zone containing over 20% of all known sites worldwide. Most sites experienced episodic hypoxia, which is a precursor to development of seasonal hypoxia. The Baltic Sea coastal zone displays an alarming trend with hypoxia steadily increasing with time since the 1950s effecting nutrient biogeochemical processes, ecosystem services, and coastal habitat., authorCount :19

Nature of the problem • Most regional watersheds in Europe constitute managed human territories importing large amounts of new reactive nitrogen. • As a consequence, groundwater, surface freshwater and coastal seawater are undergoing severe nitrogen contamination and/or eutrophication problems. Approaches • A comprehensive evaluation of net anthropogenic inputs of reactive nitrogen (NANI) through atmospheric deposition, crop N fi xation, fertiliser use and import of food and feed has been carried out for all European watersheds. A database on N, P and Si fl uxes delivered at the basin outlets has been assembled. • A number of modelling approaches based on either statistical regression analysis or mechanistic description of the processes involved in nitrogen transfer and transformations have been developed for relating N inputs to watersheds to outputs into coastal marine ecosystems. Key fi ndings/state of knowledge • Th roughout Europe, NANI represents 3700 kgN/km2/yr (range, 0–8400 depending on the watershed), i.e. fi ve times the background rate of natural N 2 fi xation. • A mean of approximately 78% of NANI does not reach the basin outlet, but instead is stored (in soils, sediments or ground water) or eliminated to the atmosphere as reactive N forms or as N 2 .• N delivery to the European marine coastal zone totals 810 kgN/km2/yr (range, 200–4000 depending on the watershed), about four times the natural background. In areas of limited availability of silica, these inputs cause harmful algal blooms. Major uncertainties/challenges • Th e exact dimension of anthropogenic N inputs to watersheds is still imperfectly known and requires pursuing monitoring programmes and data integration at the international level. • Th e exact nature of ‘retention’ processes, which potentially represent a major management lever for reducing N contamination of water resources, is still poorly understood. • Coastal marine eutrophication depends to a large degree on local morphological an, Chapter 13, info:eu-repo/semantics/published

We tested the hypothesis that CO2 supersaturation along the aquatic conduit over Sweden can be explained by processes other than aquatic respiration. A first generalized-additive model (GAM) analysis evaluating the relationships between single water chemistry variables and pCO2 in lakes and streams revealed that water chemistry variables typical for groundwater input, e.g., dissolved silicate (DSi) and Mg2+ had explanatory power similar to total organic carbon (TOC). Further GAM analyses on various lake size classes and stream orders corroborated the slightly higher explanatory power for DSi in lakes and Mg2+ for streams compared with TOC. Both DSi and TOC explained 22–46% of the pCO2 variability in various lake classes (0.01–>100 km2) and Mg2+ and TOC explained 11–41% of the pCO2 variability in the various stream orders. This suggests that aquatic pCO2 has a strong groundwater signature. Terrestrial respiration is a significant source of the observed supersaturation and we may assume that both terrestrial respiration and aquatic respiration contributed equally to pCO2 efflux. pCO2 and TOC concentrations decreased with lake size suggesting that the longer water residence time allow greater equilibration of CO2 with the atmosphere and in-lake mineralization of TOC. For streams, we observed a decreasing trend in pCO2 with stream orders between 3 and 6. We calculated the total CO2 efflux from all Swedish lakes and streams to be 2.58 Tg C yr−1. Our analyses also demonstrated that 0.70 Tg C yr−1 are exported to the ocean by Swedish watersheds as HCO3− and CO32− of which about 0.56 Tg C yr−1 is also a residual from terrestrial respiration and constitute a long-term sink for atmospheric CO2. Taking all dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) fluxes along the aquatic conduit into account will lower the estimated net ecosystem C exchange (NEE) by 2.02 Tg C yr−1, which corresponds to 10% of the NEE in Sweden.

We demonstrate in this study that a single focusing multiple collector inductively coupled plasma massspectrometer (MC-ICP-MS) equipped with a hexapole gas-collision cell (GV-instrument Isoprobe) canprecisely determine the d29Si (2S.D., 0.2&) using a total Si consumption of less than 14 nmole (390 ngSi). Testing and evaluation of background, rinse time, and major matrix effects have been performed ina systematic way to establish a procedure to measure d29Si in small quantities. Chemical purificationprior to analysis is required to remove potential interferences. For data collected during a four-yearperiod, the average d29Si value of IRMM-018 relative to NBS-28 was found to be 0.95& (n ¼ 23,2S.D. 0.16&) with a 95% confidence interval (0.95 0.028&). The mean d29Si value of the Big-Batchstandard was found to be 5.50& (n ¼ 6, 2S.D. 0.26&). Although determination of the d30Simeasurements is not possible, with our current instrument we demonstrate that this system providesa fast and long-term reliable method for the analysis of d29Si in purified samples with low Siconcentration (18 mM Si)., Silicon isotope-based reconstruction of silicon cycle and diatom production in the Baltic Sea; implications for climate change and eutrophication

We investigated amorphous Si (ASi) in a boreal wetland in northern Sweden. We found enormous stocks of ASi in the upper soil layers (up to 11% of dry weight), in the form of diatom frustules and plant ASi. A consistent exponential decrease in ASi concentrations was observed with increasing depth in the soil profile. An inverse modeling approach shows that vegetation takes up a substantial part of weathered dissolved Si (DSi). Concurrent analysis of N and C indicates a faster turnover in and a higher leakage from the ASi pool. The magnitude of the biological buffering we observed is unprecedented and supports the emerging paradigm of the importance of biological uptake of DSi governing the export of DSi from terrestrial ecosystems. Our results complicate current models of silicate transport, highlighting the necessity to incorporate ecosystem biological buffering in our concept of Si biogeochemistry., authorCount :4

This paper evaluates possible future nitrogen loadings from 105 catchments surrounding the Baltic Sea. Multiple regressions are used to model total nitrogen (TN) flux as a function of specific runoff (0), atmospheric nitrogen deposition, and primary emissions (PE) from humans and livestock. On average cattle contributed with 63%, humans with 20%, and pigs with 17% of the total nitrogen PE to land. Compared to the reference period (1992-1996) we then evaluated two types of scenarios for year 2070. i) An increased protein consumption scenario that led to 16% to 39% increased mean TN flux (kg per km(-2)). ii) Four climate scenarios addressing effects of changes in river discharge. These scenarios showed increased mean TN flux from the northern catchments draining into the Gulf of Bothnia (34%) and the Gulfs of Finland and Riga (14%), while the mean TN flux decreased (-27%) for catchments draining to the Baltic Proper. However, the net effect of the scenarios showed a possible increase in TN flux ranging from 3-72%. Overall an increased demand for animal protein will be instrumental for the Baltic Sea ecosystem and may be a major holdback to fulfill the environmental goals of the Baltic Sea Action Plan., authorCount :5

Climate change is expected to have a strong effect on the Eastern Siberian Arctic Shelf (ESAS) region, which includes 40% of the Arctic shelves and comprises the Laptev and East Siberian seas. The largest organic carbon pool, the dissolved organic carbon (DOC), may change significantly due to changes in both riverine inputs and transformation rates; however, the present DOC inventories and transformation patterns are poorly understood. Using samples from the International Siberian Shelf Study 2008, this study examines for the first time DOC removal in Arctic shelf waters with residence times that range from months to years. Removals of up to 10%–20% were found in the Lena River estuary, consistent with earlier studies in this area, where surface waters were shown to have a residence time of approximately 2 months. In contrast, the DOC concentrations showed a strong nonconservative pattern in areas with freshwater residence times of several years. The average losses of DOC were estimated to be 30%–50% during mixing along the shelf, corresponding to a first-order removal rate constant of 0.3 yr−1. These data provide the first observational evidence for losses of DOC in the Arctic shelf seas, and the calculated DOC deficit reflects DOC losses that are higher than recent model estimates for the region. Overall, a large proportion of riverine DOC is removed from the surface waters across the Arctic shelves. Such significant losses must be included in models of the carbon cycle for the Arctic Ocean, especially since the breakdown of terrestrial DOC to CO2 in Arctic shelf seas may constitute a positive feedback mechanism for Arctic climate warming. These data also provide a baseline for considering the effects of future changes in carbon fluxes, as the vast northern carbon-rich permafrost areas draining into the Arctic are affected by global warming.

Permafrost thawing is likely to change the flow pathways taken by water as it moves through arctic and sub-arctic landscapes. The location and distribution of these pathways directly influence the carbon and other biogeochemical cycling in northern latitude catchments. While permafrost thawing due to climate change has been observed in the arctic and sub-arctic, direct observations of permafrost depth are difficult to perform at scales larger than a local scale. Using recession flow analysis, it may be possible to detect and estimate the rate of permafrost thawing based on a long-term streamflow record. We demonstrate the application of this approach to the sub-arctic Abiskojokken catchment in northern Sweden. Based on recession flow analysis, we estimate that permafrost in this catchment may be thawing at an average rate of about 0.9 cm/yr during the past 90 years. This estimated thawing rate is consistent with direct observations of permafrost thawing rates, ranging from 0.7 to 1.3 cm/yr over the past 30 years in the region.

We tested the hypothesis whether individual land classes within a river catchment contribute equally to river loading with dissolved constituents or whether some land classes act as “hot spots” to river loading and if so, are these land classes especially affected by hydrological 5 alterations. The amount of land covered by forests and wetlands and the average soil depth of a river catchment explain 58–93% of the variability in total organic carbon (TOC) and dissolved silicate (DSi) concentrations for 22 river catchments in Northern Sweden. Whereas only 3% of the headwater areas of the Luleälven have been inundated by the creation of reservoirs, some 10% of the soils and aggregated 10 forest and wetland areas have been lost due to damming and further hydrological alteration such as bypassing entire sub-catchments by headrace tunnels. However, looking at individual forest classes, our estimates indicate that some 37% of the deciduous forests have been inundated by the four major reservoirs built in the Luleälven headwaters.These deciduous forest and wetlands formerly growing on top of alluvial deposits 15 along the river corridors forming the riparian zone play a vital role in loading river water with dissolved constituents, especially DSi. A digital elevation model draped with land classes and soil depths which highlights that topography of various land classes acting as hot spots is critical in determining water residence time in soils and biogeochemical fluxes. Thus, headwater areas of the Luleälven appear to be most sensitive 20 to hydrological alterations due to the thin soil cover (on average 2.7–4.5m) and only patchy appearance of forest and wetlands that were significantly perturbed. Moreover, since these headwater areas are characterized often by high specific discharge, this relatively minor change in the landscape when compared to the entire river catchment may indeed explain the significant lower fluxes at the river mouth. We tested the hypothesis whether

Despite reduced anthropogenic deposition during the last decades, deposition sulphate may still play an important role in the biogeochemical cycles of S and many catchments may act as net sources of S that may remain for several decades. The aim of this study is to elucidate the temporal and spatial dynamics of both SO42- and delta S-34(SO4) in stream water from catchments with varying percentage of wetland and forest coverage and to determine their relative importance for catchment losses of S. Stream water samples were collected from 15 subcatchments ranging in size from 3 to 6780 ha, in a boreal stream network, northern Sweden. In forested catchments (2% wetland cover) S-SO42- concentrations in stream water averaged 1.7 mg L-1 whereas in wetland dominated catchments (30% wetland cover) the concentrations averaged 0.3 mg L-1. A significant negative relationship was observed between S-SO42- and percentage wetland coverage (r(2) = 0.77, p 0.001) and the annual export of stream water SO42- and wetland coverage (r(2) = 0.76 p 0.001). The percentage forest coverage was on the other hand positively related to stream water SO42- concentrations and the annual export of stream water SO42- (r(2) = 0.77 and r(2) = 0.79, respectively). The annual average delta S-34(SO4) value in wetland dominated streams was +7.6%omicron. and in streams of forested catchments +6.7%omicron. At spring flood the delta S-34(SO4) values decreased in all streams by 1%omicron to 5%omicron. The delta S-34(SO4) values in all streams were higher than the delta S-34(SO4) value of +4.7%omicron in precipitation (snow). The export of S ranged from 0.5 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1) (wetland headwater stream) to 3.8 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1) (forested headwater stream). With an average S deposition in open field of 1.3 kg S ha(-1) yr(-1) (2002-2006) the mass balance results in a net export of S from all catchments, except in catchments with 30% wetland. The high temporal and spatial resolution of this study demonstrates tha

Anthropogenic eutrophication affects the Mediterranean, Black, North and Baltic Seas to various extents. Responses to nutrient loading and methods of monitoring relevant indicators vary regionally, hindering interpretation of ecosystem state changes and preventing a straightforward pan-European assessment of eutrophication symptoms. Here we summarize responses to nutrient enrichment in Europe's seas, comparing existing time-series of selected pelagic (phytoplankton biomass and community composition, turbidity, N:P ratio) and benthic (macro flora and faunal communities, bottom oxygen condition) indicators based on their effectiveness in assessing eutrophication effects. Our results suggest that the Black Sea and Northern Adriatic appear to be recovering from eutrophication due to economic reorganization in the Black Sea catchment and nutrient abatement measures in the case of the Northern Adriatic. The Baltic is most strongly impacted by eutrophication due to its limited exchange and the prevalence of nutrient recycling. Eutrophication in the North Sea is primarily a coastal problem, but may be exacerbated by climatic changes. Indicator interpretation is strongly dependent on sea-specific knowledge of ecosystem characteristics, and no single indicator can be employed to adequately compare eutrophication state between European seas. Communicating eutrophication-related information to policy-makers could be facilitated through the use of consistent indicator selection and monitoring methodologies across European seas. This work is discussed in the context of the European Commission's recently published Marine Strategy Directive.

The BACC Author Team consists of more than 80 scientists from 13 countries, covering various disciplines related climate research and related impacts. Anders Moberg (Chapter 2: Past and current climate change) and Christoph Humborg (Chapter 4: Climate-related change in terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems) are contributing authors from Stockholm University.

A key issue to understanding the transformations of terrestrial organic carbon in the ocean is to disentangle the latter from marine-produced organic matter. We applied a multiple stable isotope approach using 34S and 13C isotope signatures from estuarine dissolved organic matter (DOM), enabling us to constrain the contribution of terrestrial-derived DOM in an estuarine gradient of the northern Baltic Sea. The stable isotope signatures for dissolved organic sulfur (34SDOS) have twice the range between terrestrial and marine end members compared to the stable isotope signatures for dissolved organic carbon (13CDOC); hence, the share of terrestrial DOM in the total estuarine DOM can be calculated more precisely. DOM samples from the water column were collected using ultrafiltration on board the German RV Maria S Merian during a winter cruise, in the Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, and Baltic proper. We calculated the terrestrial fraction of the estuarine DOC (DOCter) from both 13CDOC and 34SDOS signatures and applying fixed C: S ratios for riverine and marine end members to convert S isotope signatures into DOC concentrations. The 34SDOS signature of the riverine end member was +7.02‰, and the mean signatures from Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, and Baltic proper were +10.27, +12.51, and +13.67‰, respectively, showing an increasing marine signal southwards (34SDOS marine end member 5 18.1‰). These signatures indicate that 87‰, 75‰, and 67‰, respectively, of the water column DOC is of terrestrial origin (DOCter) in these basins. Comparing the fractions of DOCter in each basin—that are still b

A key issue to understanding the transformations of terrestrial organic carbon in the ocean is to disentangle the latter from marine-produced organic matter. We applied a multiple stable isotope approach using delta S-34 and delta C-13 isotope signatures from estuarine dissolved organic matter (DOM), enabling us to constrain the contribution of terrestrial-derived DOM in an estuarine gradient of the northern Baltic Sea. The stable isotope signatures for dissolved organic sulfur (delta S-34(DOS)) have twice the range between terrestrial and marine end members compared to the stable isotope signatures for dissolved organic carbon (delta C-13(DOC)); hence, the share of terrestrial DOM in the total estuarine DOM can be calculated more precisely. DOM samples from the water column were collected using ultrafiltration on board the German RV Maria S Merian during a winter cruise, in the Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, and Baltic proper. We calculated the terrestrial fraction of the estuarine DOC (DOCter) from both delta C-13(DOC) and delta S-34(DOS) signatures and applying fixed C: S ratios for riverine and marine end members to convert S isotope signatures into DOC concentrations. The delta S-34(DOS) signature of the riverine end member was +7.02 parts per thousand, and the mean signatures from Bothnian Bay, Bothnian Sea, and Baltic proper were +10.27, +12.51, and +13.67 parts per thousand, respectively, showing an increasing marine signal southwards (d34SDOS marine end member = 18.1 parts per thousand). These signatures indicate that 87%, 75%, and 67%, respectively, of the water column DOC is of terrestrial origin (DOCter) in these basins. Comparing the fractions of DOCter in each basin-that are still based on few winter values only-with the annual river input of DOC, it appears that the turnover time for DOCter in the Gulf of Bothnia is much shorter than the hydraulic turnover time, suggesting that high-latitude estuaries might be efficient sinks for DOCter.

The paper reviews critical processes for the land-sea fluxes of biogenic elements (C, N, P, Si) in the Baltic Sea catchment and discusses possible future scenarios as a consequence of improved sewage treatment, agricultural practices and increased hydropower demand (for N, P and Si) and of global warming, i.e., changes in hydrological patterns (for C). These most significant drivers will not only change the total amount of nutrient inputs and fluxes of organic and inorganic forms of carbon to the Baltic Sea, their ratio (C:N:P:Si) will alter as well with consequences for phytoplankton species composition in the Baltic Sea. In summary, we propose that N fluxes may increase due to higher livestock densities in those countries recently acceded to the EU, whereas P and Si fluxes may decrease due to an improved sewage treatment in these new EU member states and with further damming and still eutrophic states of many lakes in the entire Baltic Sea catchment. This might eventually decrease cyanobacteria blooms in the Baltic but increase the potential for other nuisance blooms. Dinoflagellates could eventually substitute diatoms that even today grow below their optimal growth conditions due to low Si concentrations in some regions of the Baltic Sea. C fluxes will probably increase from the boreal part of the Baltic Sea catchment due to the expected higher temperatures and heavier rainfall. However, it is not clear whether dissolved organic carbon and alkalinity, which have opposite feedbacks to global warming, will increase in similar amounts, because the spring flow peak will be smoothed out in time due to higher temperatures that cause less snow cover and deeper soil infiltration.