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We have generated a novel monoclonal antibody targeting human FGFR1c (R1c mAb) that caused profound body weight and body fat loss in diet-induced obese mice due to decreased food intake (with energy expenditure unaltered), in turn improving glucose control. R1c mAb also caused weight loss in leptin-deficient ob/ob mice, leptin receptor-mutant db/db mice, and in mice lacking either the melanocortin 4 receptor or the melanin-concentrating hormone receptor 1. In addition, R1c mAb did not change hypothalamic mRNA expression levels of Agrp, Cart, Pomc, Npy, Crh, Mch, or Orexin, suggesting that R1c mAb could cause food intake inhibition and body weight loss via other mechanisms in the brain. Interestingly, peripherally administered R1c mAb accumulated in the median eminence, adjacent arcuate nucleus and in the circumventricular organs where it activated the early response gene c-Fos. As a plausible mechanism and coinciding with the initiation of food intake suppression, R1c mAb induced hypothalamic expression levels of the cytokines Monocyte chemoattractant protein 1 and 3 and ERK1/2 and p70 S6 kinase 1 activation.

The workshop ‘New Narratives for Nature: operationalizing the IPBES Nature Futures Scenarios’ was organised by the IPBES task force on scenarios and models and hosted by the Institute for Global Environmental Strategies (IGES), with support from the research team on “Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services through an Integrated Social-Ecological Systems Approach (PANCES)” based at the University of Tokyo, the Research Institute for Humanity and Nature (RIHN), and the United Nations University, with generous financial support from the Ministry of the Environment of Japan. Due to the COVID-19 virus outbreak, most task force members participated through virtual means, with a subset of task force members meeting in person in Japan. The aim of the workshop was to build on the Nature Futures Framework (NFF) and on the ‘nature futures’ participatory scenario-development work initiated by the IPBES expert group on scenarios and models in the first IPBES work programme. This workshop aims to further elaborate the pre-workshop scenario narratives and to enrich discussions on the NFF. The workshop also served to start working on a more detailed task force work plan.

Mountains play a key role in the provision of nature’s contributions to people (NCP) worldwide that support societies’ quality of life. Simultaneously, mountains are threatened by multiple drivers of change. Due to the complex interlinkages between biodiversity, quality of life and drivers of change, research on NCP in mountains requires interdisciplinary approaches. In this study, we used the conceptual framework of the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES) and the notion of NCP to determine to what extent previous research on ecosystem services in mountains has explored the different components of the IPBES conceptual framework. We conducted a systematic review of articles on ecosystem services in mountains published up to 2016 using the Web of Science and Scopus databases. Descriptive statistical and network analyses were conducted to explore the level of research on the components of the IPBES framework and their interactions. Our results show that research has gradually become more interdisciplinary by studying higher number of NCP, dimensions of quality of life, and indirect drivers of change. Yet, research focusing on biodiversity, regulating NCP and direct drivers has decreased over time. Furthermore, despite the fact that research on NCP in mountains becoming more policy-oriented over time, mainly in relation to payments for ecosystem services, institutional responses remained underexplored in the reviewed studies. Finally, we discuss the relevant knowledge gaps that should be addressed in future research in order to contribute to IPBES., PLoS ONE, 14 (6), ISSN:1932-6203

The agriculture sector is facing considerable challenges in ensuring food security under projected changes in climate and pressures to reduce its environmental impacts, among others. With changes in growing season and local growing conditions already being observed, adaptation is a key factor in aiming towards climate-smart, sustainable agriculture. Process-based crop models offer a tool for understanding complex interactions associated with crop, environment and management actions, and quantifying their impacts on various outputs. In the face of uncertainties associated with impact estimates, risk assessment has become an essential part of adaptation planning. This study explored the use of a “scenario-neutral” approach for informing risk assessments in the context of crop production. Its main motivation was to examine novel insights offered by the approach for characterising uncertainties associated with modelled impacts compared to conventional scenario-based approaches, where impact estimates are tied to a given scenario. The approach utilises impact response surfaces (IRSs) to depict simulated period-mean sensitivities of cereal yields to systematic changes in baseline (1981–2010) temperature and precipitation. The analysis focused on sites in Finland, Germany and Spain, across a transect of contrasting environmental zones that hence facilitated an examination of the effect of site-specific growing conditions on the impacts of projected changes on cereal yields. The research encompassed a multi-model IRS study involving 26 crop models for wheat as well as an IRS study employing a single model for barley. In addition to analysing median responses of the model ensemble across the transect, approaches were developed for classifying and interpreting individual model responses. By combining IRSs with projections of climate interpreted probabilistically, likelihood of crop yield shortfall was estimated and its evolution throughout the 21st century visualised. This was estimated with a single crop model WOFOST for spring barley in Finland. Effects of adaptation on yield were considered through adapted sowing and cultivar choice. Evolution of future atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration [CO2] defined by representative concentration pathways also used for climate projections (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) was also considered when estimating likelihoods. With the multi-model ensemble study of wheat yield sensitivities [CO2] was fixed at 360 ppm. Simulated cereal yields were found to decline with warming and drying and increase with higher precipitation. The yield response in Finland was dominated by temperature. Precipitation change dominated the response of spring wheat in Spain, while the response was more mixed in Germany. The multi-model ensemble median response offered a consensus view of impact sensitivities, with individual model behaviour occasionally departing markedly from the average. IRS patterns across the multi-model ensemble showed greater similarity in the pattern of modelled yield responses for Germany in comparison to Finland and Spain. Similarity in patterns was also associated with models of related genealogy. With respect to the effectiveness of tested adaptation options, results suggest that combining cultivars with short pre- and long post-anthesis phases with earlier sowing, offers most promise for obtaining the largest yield gains and smallest likelihoods of yield shortfall under future scenarios. Higher levels of [CO2] generally compensate for yield losses with warming, with the effect emphasised with the biggest increases in temperature. IRSs offer a valid alternative to conventional scenario-based approaches with many advantages for presenting and analysing results. IRSs can assist in model testing, comparison of results across models, studies and sectors and examination of various statistical characteristics of the response, greatly facilitated by the possibility to visually depict impact sensitivities in consistent ways. Use of multi-model ensembles with respect to both climate projections and crop impacts increases the robustness of results and provides information on the uncertainties around the yield estimates. The approach for estimating and visualising impact likelihoods provides improved understanding and transparency of concepts behind the likelihood estimates. Ilmastonmuutos haastaa pyrkimään kohti ilmastoviisasta ja kestävää maataloutta sekä turvaamaan tulevaisuuden ruoantuotantoa. Ennustetut kasvukauden ja paikallisten olosuhteiden muutokset vaativat arvioita satovaikutuksista sekä sopeutumisesta. Viljelykasvien kasvua simuloivat mallit tarjoavat työkalun kasvin, ympäristön ja viljelytoimien välisten monimutkaisten vuorovaikutusten ymmärtämiseen. Vaikutusarvioihin sisältyvien epävarmuuksien takia riskiarviosta on tullut keskeinen osa sopeutumistoimien suunnittelua. Tässä tutkimuksessa arvioitiin kasvintuotannon riskejä menetelmällä, joka ei edellytä ilmastoskenaarioiden määrittelyä. Menetelmän avulla voidaan tutkia vaikutusten epävarmuuksia. Menetelmässä muodostetaan vaikutusvastepintoja, kuvioita, jotka korkeuskäyrien tapaan kuvaavat mallinnettujen viljasatojen herkkyyttä vertailuajan (1981–2010) lämpötilan ja sademäärän systemaattisille muutoksille. Vaikutuksia analysoitiin kasvuolosuhteiltaan eroavissa kohteissa Suomessa, Saksassa ja Espanjassa. Tarkastelussa olivat 26:sta vehnän satomallista koostuvan mallijoukon ja yhden ohran satomallin tulokset. Mallijoukon mediaanitulosten tarkastelun ohella kehitettiin menetelmiä yksittäisistä mallituloksista muodostettujen kuvioiden luokittelemiseksi ja tulkitsemiseksi. Hyödyntämällä todennäköisyyspohjaisia ilmastoennusteita ja asettamalla ne lämpötila- ja sademäärämuutosten mukaisesti vaikutusvastepinnoille arvioitiin vuoteen 2100 asti todennäköisyyttä sille, että ohran sato jää Suomessa alle tavoitetason. Sopeutumistoimien vaikutusta satoon arvioitiin kylvöpäivän muutoksen sekä lajikevalinnan kautta. Mallinnetut viljasadot kärsivät lämpötilan noususta ja sademäärän laskusta ja hyötyivät sademäärän kasvusta. Suomessa lämpötilan muutokset vaikuttivat satoon sademäärää enemmän. Espanjassa tulokset olivat päinvastaisia, kun taas Saksassa vastaavaa eroa ei havaittu. Yksittäisten mallien tulokset poikkesivat toisinaan suuresti mallijoukon mediaanivasteesta. Mallit tuottivat keskenään samankaltaisimpia tuloksia Saksassa, sekä saman malliperheen malleilla kaikissa kohteissa. Parhaat edellytykset satotasojen kasvattamiselle ja pienimmät todennäköisyydet satojen jäämiselle tavoitetasosta tulevaisuudessa saatiin aikaistamalla kylvöä ja valitsemalla lajike, jossa yhdistyy lyhyt kukintaa edeltävä ja pitkä kukinnan jälkeinen kasvuvaihe. Ilmakehän CO2-pitoisuuden kohoamisen aiheuttama positiivinen satovaste korostui korkeimmilla lämpötiloilla. Vaikutusvastepinnat tarjoavat käyvän vaihtoehdon skenaarioihin perustuville menetelmille ja lukuisia etuja tulosten esittämiseen ja analysointiin. Niitä voidaan käyttää mallien testauksessa, tulosten vertailussa eri mallien tai sektoreiden välillä sekä vasteen tilastollisten ominaisuuksien tarkastelussa, jotka kaikki hyötyvät menetelmän havainnollisesta visuaalisesta esitystavasta. Yksittäisen mallin korvaaminen mallijoukolla, niin sato- kuin ilmastomallien osalta, lisää tulosten luotettavuutta ja antaa tietoa satoarvioiden epävarmuustekijöistä. Satotasojen todennäköisyyksien arviointi ja visualisointi työssä käytetyllä menetelmällä havainnollistaa analyysin perusteita ja lisää siten tutkimuksen avoimuutta.

This document contains the draft Chapter 4 of the IPBES Global Assessment on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services. Governments and all observers at IPBES-7 had access to these draft chapters eight weeks prior to IPBES-7. Governments accepted the Chapters at IPBES-7 based on the understanding that revisions made to the SPM during the Plenary, as a result of the dialogue between Governments and scientists, would be reflected in the final Chapters.IPBES typically releases its Chapters publicly only in their final form, which implies a delay of several months post Plenary. However, in light of the high interest for the Chapters, IPBES is releasing the six Chapters early (31 May 2019) in a draft form. Authors of the reports are currently working to reflect all the changes made to the Summary for Policymakers during the Plenary to the Chapters, and to perform final copyediting.

As the ecosystemservice concept has become more widely recognised, so the number of biophysical, socio-cultural and monetary methods available to assess ecosystem services has increased. There is relatively little guidance on how to select and combine these methods into hybrid approaches that address policy purposes. Based on experiences from 27 case studies with 33 different assessment and valuation methods in the OpenNESS project, this report aims to fill some of that gap in science and practice. This report provides a number of tools that practitioners can use to plan, commission and evaluate integrated assessment and valuation studies of ecosystem services. The report starts by providing a rapid guide to commonly used biophysical, socio-cultural and monetary methods. A number of different ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’ approaches to selecting methods fit-for-purpose are provided. OpenNESS method experts have developed detailed fact sheets on each method in the report appendix and available online at http://www.oppla.eu/. Network diagrams show the reader which assessment and valuation methods are most related and complementary. Decision trees provide a stepwise framework for scoping and integrating assessment and valuation studies which identifies the best method that is suitable to a specific purpose. Method consideration matrices provide a detailed list of several dozen method selection criteria, derived from case study experiences. Selection criteria tables are further specified for each suite of biophysical, socio-cultural and monetary valuation methods. An online method selection tool, develped in collaboration with the Opera’s project, demonstrates how combinations of study purposes, considerations and constraints can be used to identify portfolios of methods. Managers can use these method selection tables, matrices decision-trees and online tools to scope what is possible in their particular decision context. The material is also useful for specifying the terms of reference for ecosystem assessments. The report then shows how real world experiences in the OpenNESS case studies lead to the innovation and development of hybrid assessment methods that better addressed the particular needs of local decision-makers. The report summarises which combinations of biophysical modelling, mapping-modelling, expert-based, participatory, socio-cultural, monetary and integrative approaches were more likely to be combined in the case studies. We provide detailed examples using process diagrams to show how case studies scoped the study purpose, adapted and combined different method types. The real world process of applied research was non-linear and iterative, time consuming, but also creative. These examples can provide funders of applied research at EU and national level with a wider perspective on how to support innovative development of ecosystem service assessment methods. Real-life examples of method application and hybridisation show managers and researchers

As the ecosystem service concept has become more widely recognised, so the number of biophysical, socio-cultural and monetary methods available to assess ecosystem services has increased. There is relatively little guidance on how to select and combine these methods into hybrid approaches that address policy purposes. Based on experiences from 27 case studies with 33 different assessment and valuation methods in the OpenNESS project, this report aims to fill some of that gap in science and practice. This report provides a number of tools that practitioners can use to plan, commission and evaluate integrated assessment and valuation studies of ecosystem services. The report starts by providing a rapid guide to commonly used biophysical, socio-cultural and monetary methods. A number of different ‘bottom-up’ and ‘top-down’ approaches to selecting methods fit-for-purpose are provided. OpenNESS method experts have developed detailed fact sheets on each method in the report appendix and available online at http://www.oppla.eu/.

High-End Climate Change in Europe, ISBN:978-954-642-861-5