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Abstract This paper intends to investigate whether the turning points exist between tax revenue, gross domestic product, government expenditure, and gross domestic saving towards Malaysia’s total external debt. The researcher implements the adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system model to forecast the total external debt in Malaysia. The total external debt prediction then projects the three-dimensional surface diagrams to depict whether the turning points exist among the variables. This study’s empirical finding reveals that the turning points are noticeable between the tax revenue, gross domestic product, and gross domestic saving toward external debt in Malaysia. However, government expenditure depicts a direct relationship with external debt. This finding demonstrates that the anomaly between the theories and scholarly activities. This study also recommends that the tax revenue be collected at maximum holding the government expenditure and gross domestic product are maximum statistics to reduce Malaysia’s external debt.

This study aims to examine and analyze the effect of economic growth classified as personnel expenditure, material expenditure, capital expenditure, interest payments, subsidies and social expenditure in Indonesia. The data in this study are time series data from 2005 to 2019. The hypothesis test uses the multiple linear regression method with SPSS 26. The results of testing government expenditure variables during the period 2005 to 2019 shows that components of central government expenditure include personnel, material, capital, interest payments, subsidies and social expenditure have a significant effect simultaneously on economic growth. There is a significant positive effect on the relationship between the variable personnel expenditure and material expenditure on economic growth. There is a significant negative effect on the relationship between the variable capital expenditure on economic growth. The other three variables, which include debt interest payments, subsidies and social expenditure, do not have a significant effect on economic growth.

Environmental sustainability is fundamental to the survival of our planet and ourselves, as polluted air, water, and land severely affect communities and society to thrive and damage the quality of life. This study examined the role of alternative and nuclear energy in stimulating the environment sustainably while mediating the function of government expenditure and economic growth in the top three highest CO2 emitter countries. We apply advanced econometric methodologies for empirical analysis from 1981 to 2016 and find long-run relationships among the variables that suggest general government final consumption expenditure and economic growth are positively related to CO2 emissions. Moreover, alternative and nuclear energy and the square root of economic growth (EKC) improve environmental sustainability. The general government's final consumption expenditure and economic growth deteriorate environmental sustainability. Policymakers in the top three highest CO2 emitter countries are encouraged to adopt a comprehensive approach to access the compatibility of alternative and nuclear energy sources, changing the source of uranium from mined ore to seawater, encourage, tide, and include macroeconomic stabilization, public and private fiscal position goals with the environmental sustainability policies. Moreover, governments are suggested to incorporate green fiscal policies to address the global environmental challenges and promote a green economy. Aligning government expenditures with environmental goals, reflecting externalities in prices, broader fiscal reform by making fiscal space for clean and green investment is highly encouraged to achieve the sustainable development goals' target. Study limitations and directions for future research in the area are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As part of the regional integration process, East African Community (EAC) member countries agreed upon macroeconomic convergence criteria that include, among others, harmonizing and restricting the level of fiscal deficits. However, achieving these targets has been faced with heightened vulnerabilities, including those related to the global financial crisis, the COVID-19 pandemic, and domestic policy slippages. Consequently, high fiscal deficits are fast leading to accumulation of debt. This paper investigates the macroeconomic determinants and cyclicality of fiscal policy in a panel of five EAC countries for the period 1980–2020. Using a combination of linear and nonlinear panel ARDL methods, long-run results show that the fiscal deficit is positively associated with current account balance, real per capita GDP, and interest rate; and negatively associated with the GDP deflator, grants, and debt service. Disaggregating fiscal balances into their revenue and expenditure components shows that government spending is procyclical, while tax effort is countercyclical. Specifically, both government expenditures and tax-to-GDP ratios are positively associated with real per capita GDP regardless of whether this relationship is observed during growth accelerations or decelerations. The size and statistical significance of short-run asymmetric effects of real per capita GDP on fiscal policy vary between countries. • We investigate the impact of selected macro-variables on fiscal policy in five East African Community (EAC) countries. • The fiscal deficit is positively associated with current account balance, real per capita GDP, and interest rate; and negatively associated with the GDP deflator, grants, and debt service in the long run. • The fiscal deficit is negatively associated with the GDP deflator, grants, and debt service in the long run. • Short run asymmetric effects of real per capita GDP on fiscal policy vary between countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine the impact of public debt changes as well as the effects of the business cycle on the expenditure multipliers. We adopt the structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) methodology on quarterly data for a sample of 18 OECD countries. The results show that expenditure multipliers are sensitive to the fiscal position, particularly the public debt changes as well as the business cycle. In particular, fiscal multipliers recorded high size in recessions than in expansions, in line with the recent findings about fiscal multipliers. Considering the public debt, leads to larger multipliers in debt accumulation under recessions than in debt accumulation under expansions. Many studies confirmed weak fiscal multipliers in expansions than in recessions, while others confirmed lower multipliers for countries with weak fiscal position. Our paper adds to this literature by joining the two effects of the business cycle and fiscal position, showing that fiscal position acts to lower multipliers when debt is rather accumulated in times of expansion than in recessions. We conclude that in times of expansion, the accumulated public debt effects are likely transmitting through Ricardian equivalence effect and concerns from expected high long-term interest rate leading to crowding-out effect, thus, lowering fiscal multipliers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The goal to be achieved through this research is to analyze the variables that affect government investment and expenditure on economic growth and employment opportunities in Kutai Kartanegara Regency, using the Path Analysis method. This is a causality study, which analyzes the effect of exogenous variables on endogenous variables. The variables used are investment variables, government spending, economic growth and employment opportunities in Kutai Kartanegara Regency. The data used in this study are secondary time series data from 2010 to 2020 sourced from BPS and the Ministry of Finance. The data that has been collected is then analyzed quantitatively and qualitatively to provide the proposed hypothesis using Path Analysis. The results show that simultaneous research shows that Investment and Government Expenditure have a significant effect on economic growth. Partially, investment has a positive and significant effect on economic growth, government spending has a negative and insignificant effect on economic growth. Investment has a positive and significant effect on Employment Opportunities. Government spending has a negative and insignificant effect on employment opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The objective of this paper is to examine the effect of government spending volatility on economic growth in an oil producing country—Saudi Arabia. The Hodrick–Prescott (HP) filtering approach was applied to decompose the data series into cyclical and trend components. The ordinary least squares, and nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag were also used, and the results confirm the negative effect of government spending volatility on real GDP growth in an oil-based economy. Moreover, the estimated coefficients of the nonlinear ARDL models indicate that changes in government spending have a significant short run and long run impact on real GDP growth, and real GDP growth responds asymmetrically to movements in government spending. Moreover, the more trade openness and credit fluctuate, the more volatile real economic growth is. Although the magnitude of government spending volatility is acceptable, the result proves that the exclusion of oil-based economies from the test of government spending volatility was inappropriate and unjustified. These results suggest that controlling the sources of instability in real GDP growth depends on the external sector and domestic credit. However, the successes of other countries should be presented and studied in order to choose appropriate policies that mitigate public spending volatility and contribute to sustainable economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, China has declared its national objective of becoming carbon neutral by 2060. Hence, mitigating carbon dioxide emissions has become an important agenda of the Chinese government. Against this backdrop, this paper aims to evaluate the effectiveness of pursuing expansionary fiscal and monetary policies on China's carbon dioxide emission figures by using annual frequency data from 1980 to 2018. Accordingly, this study considers the levels of government expenditure and broad money supply as fiscal and monetary policy instruments, respectively. Besides accounting for structural break concerns in the data, the findings from the empirical analysis reveal that there are long-run associations between carbon dioxide emissions, economic growth, and fiscal and monetary expansion in China. Moreover, the results also show that in both the short- and long-run expansionary fiscal policy trigger higher carbon dioxide emissions while expansionary monetary policy inhibits the carbon dioxide emission figures of China. Furthermore, the results invalidate the existence of the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis since the relationship between China's economic growth and carbon dioxide emissions is evidenced to portray an N-shape. In line with these findings, it is recommended that China achieve environmentally sustainable economic growth by aligning the national fiscal and monetary policies with the 2060 carbon-neutrality objective. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While the relationship between government spending and economic development is well established, few have examined government investment in socio-cultural issues related to the development of local tourism. The gap in the literature and the importance of this topic have motivated the researchers to conduct this study. Given this fact, the main aim of the study is to examine how government spending on socio-cultural issues affected local tourism revenue in 63 provinces and cities in Vietnam over the period from 2010 to 2019. The study uses panel data for 63 provinces and cities, spanning from 2010 to 2019, and employs a generalised method of moments (GMM) estimator, which takes into account the issues with simultaneity, omitted unobserved time-invariant variables, and potential dynamic endogeneity in the econometric model. The study shows that for a one percentage point increase in local government spending on socio-cultural issues, revenue from local tourism increases by 0.676%, and overall revenue by 0.790%, 2.106%, and 0.355% in the northern, central, and southern regions of Vietnam respectively. The study helps to explain the mechanism whereby local government expenditure influences the development of tourism via (i) an increase in the number of returning tourists; and (ii) an increase in local tourism-related services and goods transactions, reflected in the number of goods transported across the locality. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The empirical relationship between public expenditure and economic growth can be analysed from different viewpoints. This study focuses on the empirical testing of the validity of Wagner's law for the Indonesian economy. The high economic growth in the sample period of 1980–2014 makes the law likely to be applicable to Indonesia. Causality and cointegration techniques are used. A key finding in our vector autoregression analysis is unidirectional causality running from GDP and price to government expenditure, supporting Wagner's law. In the case of price and government expenditure, this study also finds evidence of a long-run cointegrating relationship, which appears stable and supports unidirectional causality. The vast majority of the deviations from the equilibrium relationship between government expenditure and price are found to be transitory shocks to government expenditure. Most deviations also appear significantly countercyclical to economic activity, suggesting that government expenditure does play a role in economic stabilisation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study aim to analyze government expenditure, labor, GRDP, inflation and the unemployment rate to the investment level in D.I Yogyakarta. The data used were secondary data with cross section, consisting of 5 district/city in D.I Yogyakarta and time since 2006-2009. The analysis tool used in estimating the panel data regression model is the Fixed Effect Model. The result showed that simultaneously all the independent variables affect to the investment level. Partially, government expenditure, labor and inflation variabel do not have a significant effect on the investment level in D.I Yogyakarta. GRDP variable and the unemployment rate have a positive and significant effect on the investment level. The effect of the unemployment rate on the investment level is an interesting finding. The higher of the open unemployment rate, the more investors are interested in investing in the regeions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Nigerian economy depends on over 90% oil exports revenue to drive government expenditure aimed at supporting growth-enhancing fiscal investments. Oil price has therefore become the standard benchmark for estimating aggregate annual revenue projections for all fiscal budgets and overall prospects of budgetary success. Over the years, growth in oil exports revenue and associated growth in government expenditure supported by macroeconomic policy reforms have failed to diversify the economy away from its mono-cultural revenue base. This paper investigated the nexus between oil price shocks, government expenditure and economic growth in Nigeria for the period 1986 to 2018, an era marked by bold market reforms. Generalized Methods of Moments (GMM) and Vector Error Correction (VECM) techniques are used for the empirical examination of the relationship between the study variables. The results indicate a direct and significant relationship between oil price and both government expenditure and economic growth. The exchange rate and exports channels are the intermediaries that transmit oil price shocks to the economy. Similarly, findings have confirmed evidence of the Dutch Disease in Nigeria. Given the ongoing decarbonization of global energy, the study provides recommendations for an urgent shift in growth policy focus away from dependence on oil revenue to bold reforms that will fast-track fiscal and exports revenue diversification and sustainability, anchored on private sector initiatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Finance & Business Economies Review is the property of Finance & Business Economies Review and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article considers the influence of the complexity of the social system on the growth of financial costs for the maintenance of the central management system. The subject of the article is Professor Dmitry Sorokin’s theory that Russia cannot be a world technological leader due to objective reasons: a large territory, a severe climate, a multinational and multi-confessional composition of the population. These conditions predetermine a strong power vertical and increased financial costs, leading to the bureaucratic despotism and worse effectiveness of market innovation mechanisms. The relevance of the problem is in the need to clarify the management capabilities and limitations of regimes with strong centralized power. This issue is becoming more urgent due to the fact Wagner’s law, which requires faster growth of public expenditure compared to the economy, has ceased to operate. The article aims to theoretically illustrate and to test the theory by D. Sorokin. On this purpose, the authors built a simple theoretical model of economic growth with an institutional factor reflecting the properties of the control system. The novelty of the approach consists in building an institutional function that includes management costs for maintaining the internal integrity of the country and its external security, the management potential (“strength”) of the central government and the mechanism of market selfgovernment. The initial driving force of the model is the growing complexity of the managed system, which, by D. Zolo’s complexity theory, leads to the wide spread of authoritarian political regimes. The analysis of the model and computational experiments allowed to establish the conditions when Sorokin’s theory is valid and when not. The calculations have led to the conclusion that even a tough authoritarian rule can stimulate the country’s economic development, provided that the current system of central government is highly efficient and low in financial capacity.

Purpose – In Covid-19 pandemic era when most households' members have lost their jobs and incomes, the government assistance and programs in ensuring household consumption smoothing is very significant. The main objectives of this study are to analyze the impact of government expenditure and free maternal healthcare (FMHC) policy on household consumption expenditure in Ghana in both long run and short run. Design/methodology/approach – They used the ARDL to estimate the impact of government expenditure on household consumption and Segmented Linear Regression to examine impact of FMHC policy household consumption using longitudinal data from 1967 to 2018. Findings – The results revealed that government expenditure had a negative and statistically significant effect on household consumption expenditure suggesting that government expenditure crowed-out private consumption in Ghana. Also, it was observed that before the implementation of the FMHC policy, there was an increase household consumption expenditure, but after the introduction of the FMHC policy, the study household consumption expenditure decreases significantly suggesting that FMHC policy has strong association with household consumption in Ghana. Research limitations/implications – Due to limited data availability, this study did not assess the impact of the FMHC policy at the household or district level. Also, Ghana has introduced a free senior high school education policy in 2017 so further research could analyze the implications of these policies for household consumption in Ghana at the micro-level using different estimation technique such as the difference in difference. Practical implications – The study suggests the need to increase public spending on basic social amenities and also extend the free maternal healthcare policy to all pregnant women especially those in the rural areas of Ghana as these have a greater impact on household consumption in Ghana. The findings from this study have important implications for household savings and interest rate in Ghana. The findings from this study also have important implications for both fiscal policy and healthcare policy in Ghana and other developing countries. Originality/value – To the best of my knowledge this is the first empirical study to examine the effect of government expenditure and free maternal healthcare policy on household consumption in Ghana.

This study attempts to investigate the effect of government spending on regional growth in Iran. The relationship between government spending and economic growth is one of the well-known topics in economic literature. One of the problems of developing countries is the failure to achieve sustainable economic growth, which not only causes economic problems such as recession and unemployment, but also cultural, political and social problems. The government economic stabilization policies can be used to narrow the gap between the potential and realized product and to maintain the product near its potential level. One key issue in the field of regional planning is to study and understand the geographical inequalities in different dimensions. In this paper, using the spatial econometric method, the relationship between government spending and regional growth is estimated by applying the regional data of Statistical Center of Iran during 2001-2017, and Excel and R software’s are used to perform the calculations. This study seeks to explain the growth of different regions using government spending, and to answer these questions: Does government spending have a significant effect on growth in the regions? Do the regions converge in terms of economic growth over time? The results indicate the negative effect of government spending, population growth and human capital on regional growth in Iran. In addition, the statistical significance of spatial correlation coefficient indicates the positive diffusion effects of regional economic growth.

The study found that the level of grassroots corruption and the scale of government spending was positively correlated, that is, the higher the level of grassroots corruption, the greater the size of government spending. What's more, grassroots corruption will affect the government's public expenditure structure, significantly increased the expenditure on science and technology, education, urban and rural community affairs, reducing the expenditure on national defense and health care. Therefore, suggest intensifying anti-corruption efforts and standardizing government approval flow. Strengthen the institutionalization of corruption and administrative accountability, to build a full range of social supervision system, so as to optimize the Structure of public expenditure, improve the use and allocation of public resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the existence or otherwise of causal relationships between direct budgetary government expenditure on agriculture, indirect government funding through credit guarantees, and straight-bank-loans-and-advances to the agricultural sector, on one part, and the gross domestic product of the economy, on the other. It utilized descriptive statistical tools, regression analysis, diagnostic tests, and pairwise Granger causality technique against annual time-series Nigerian data from 1981 through 2019. The results indicates that agricultural credit guaranteed funding and direct credits from such banks like bank of industry and the commercial banks positively and significantly cause, as in affecting and boosting, the country’s GDP. Quite surprisingly, direct government budgetary expenditure on agriculture was revealed to cause and affect GDP, but negatively. The recommendations favor encouraging and increasing the indirect guaranteed funding and straight loans and advances by relevant banks in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examined the impact of fiscal policy on non-oil GDP in Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, over the annual period 1989–2018. We employed various cointegration methods within the framework of the augmented production function and estimated that government current and capital expenditure, in addition to non-oil labour and capital, have statistically significant positive effects on non-oil GDP. We tested whether the recent oil price decline and the implemented economic reforms caused a break in the relationship that non-oil GDP establishes with the mentioned variables and found that there was no break in either the long-run or the short-run relationship. The study concluded with some policy insights that could be useful for fiscal authorities to promote non-oil economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study investigates the correlation between government expenditures and economic growth by applying the wavelet coherence approach for the period of 1960Q2 – 2019Q3 in the United States. Two main concepts regarding the correlation between government expenditures and economic growth are the renowned Keynesian approach, which argues that government expenditures lead economic growth, and Wagner's Law, which advocates the opposite. Our results indicate that economic growth leads government expenditures in the long run, whereas government expenditures only enhance economic growth in the short run and in periods of recession. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Egypt suffers from unstable growth rates in light of the availability of many untapped economic resources and the exacerbation of taxes to many negative economic and social effects, which is reflected in all sectors of the national economy, the most important of which is the agricultural sector. Which requires identifying the extent to which the agricultural sector is affected by public spending as one of the main fiscal policy tools?. Hence, the research aims to study the relative importance of public spending on different economic sectors, and to measure the impact of agricultural public spending on the growth of the agricultural sector using the NARDL model. The results of the study of the relative importance of public spending on economic sectors over the period (2015/16-2019/20) indicate that the electricity sector comes in the first place with a rate of about 18.5%, followed by transport and storage, and construction and building by about 13.4%, 11.7% for each of them, respectively. From a study of the relative importance of the average contribution of the economic sectors to the GDP, it was found that the transport and storage sector came in the first place with a rate of about 15.8%, followed by the wholesale and retail trade, other transformative trade, agriculture, then real estate activities, with a rate of about 13.2%, 12.1 %, 11.1%, 10.1%, respectively. Due to the existence of a co-integration relationship between the model variables, the long-term relationship between public agricultural spending and agricultural domestic product has been estimated. It may occur in spending is an important catalyst for the growth of agricultural output. Any negative shock would have a neutral effect on the real agricultural output. Hence, the research recommends paying attention to the real sources of growth, such as the productive sectors that achieve an added value through the redistribution of public spending on the most efficient productive sectors. The existence of a nonlinear relationship between agricultural public spending and the growth of the agricultural sector indicates the inability of fiscal policy to match the needs of the sector, which requires adjusting fiscal policy in proportion to the asymmetric effects over time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is yet to be a consensus on government expenditure and revenue nexus. The debate revolves round four major arguments, namely, revenue-spend hypothesis, spend-revenue hypothesis, fiscal synchronization hypothesis and fiscal neutrality hypothesis. The fiscal neutrality hypothesis postulates lacks of causal relationship between revenue and expenditure of the public sector. This study specifically examines the validity of the fiscal neutrality hypothesis in the Nigerian Local Government. The extent to which this hypothesis is true or false in the Nigerian Local Government (LG) deserves empirical investigation considering the role of the tier of government at ensuring grassroots development. Hence, this study sets out to test the fiscal neutrality hypothesis in the LG of Nigeria, using a quarterly data from 1993Q1 to 2019Q4. The data were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria’s statistical bulletin and analyzed using pairwise Granger causality technique after testing for unit root and cointegration. This therefore study upholds the fiscal neutrality hypothesis in the Nigerian LG, having confirmed no causal relationship between expenditure and revenue in the Nigerian LG. It is high time that fiscal synchronization of Local Government revenue and expenditure be vigorously pursued by the government through various reforms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study explores the relative efficiency of monetary and fiscal policy in macroeconomic management in Nigeria. To this end, the paper using autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach, examines the relative efficiency of the above macroeconomic policy tools in Nigeria between 1981 and 2020 using annual time series data. The results from the analysis revealed that few of the variable indicators at different lags were negatively signed contrary to theoretical expectation. This was not unexpected as most of the government expenditures do not translate to better output that will enhance improvement in the economic activities. Also, the results further demonstrate a direct relationship of more lagged periods of the variables implying a positive response to economic activities. In the same line of action, the results of the study show that fiscal policy rather than monetary policy exerts a greater impact on economic activities in Nigeria. The emphasis on monetary action on the part of the government has led to bigger distortion in the economy of Nigeria. The study hereby recommends a higher concentration on the use of fiscal policy particularly expansionary fiscal policy to induce the economic activities and complement it with contractionary fiscal policy when the economy is characterized by inflationary issues. The paper further added that the government should also compliment the use of fiscal policy with monetary policy where necessary. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Circular Economy (CE) is now central to debates and interventions that aim to transition systems towards greater environmental sustainability. Circular economy is part of green economy that includes human well-being, ecosystems resilience, efficiently use of resources and waste management. Romania as member of EU-28 make effort to make transition to green economy and this effort is reflected in macroeconomics indices linked and waste management indices. The aim of our paper is to analyses through statistical methods which macroeconomic index is the best predictor for recycling rate of e-waste for Romania in European context. By using the Eurostat and UNPD data we applied Structural Equation Modelling (SEM), multilinear regression, Pearson correlations, and Student t test. The results of SEM emphasis that for Romania, the best predictors for e-waste management are education level (direct effect) and people at risk of poverty or social exclusion (%), HDI, general government expenditure for environment protection (% in GDP) as indirect effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between public sector expenditure and economic growth for several decades past is still relevant today and continues to be a topic of debate among policy-makers and researchers. We examine the impact of government expenditure on economic growth in Ghana using data from 1970 to 2016, employing ARDL econometric estimation technique. The empirical findings indicate that, government expenditure has a positive relationship with economic growth in the short-run. The results further show that, Gross Capital Formation and Foreign Direct Investment show a significant positive relationship with economic growth in both the short-run and long-run. However, population growth reveals a significant negative relationship with economic growth (GDP Growth). We recommend government to increase public expenditure on profitable projects since it promotes economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, a vast literature has appeared on the relationship between fiscal policy and long-run economic growth. With the aim to give an overview of the recent discussion and establish a point of departure for future research, this study used time series techniques and rigor empirical model to investigate the link between various components of fiscal policy on Ethiopia's economic growth on annual data for 35 years. It employed the autoregressive distributed lag estimation technique. Results from the bound tests showed that there was a long-run relationship between the variables. Disaggregating government expenditure into productive and unproductive and tax revenue into distortionary and non-distortionary, this study found unproductive expenditure and non-distortionary tax revenue to be neutral to growth as predicted by economic theory. Moreover, productive expenditure has a positive effect on growth while there was evidence of distortionary effects on growth of distortionary taxes. These results give the right signal topolicymakers in Ethiopia in formulating expenditure and tax policies to ensure unproductive expenditures are reduced while at the same time boosting public investment. Furthermore, there is need to encourage private investment in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study analyses the impact of fiscal policy on the South African economy during the period 1972Q1-2020Q2. The study adopted quarterly time series data to estimate a Bayesian Vector Autoregression (BVAR) model with the selection of hierarchical priors. The variables employed for empirical investigation included GDP, government expenditure, public debt, and gross fixed-capital formation. The results of the study show that an unexpected shock in government expenditure and public debt has a significant negative and persistent impact on economic growth in South Africa, while an unexpected shock in investment has a significant positive effect on economic growth. The findings suggest that escalating public expenditure and public debt lead to economic contraction. This implies that policy-makers ought to be cautious of excessive government expenditure and public debt to achieve fiscal consolidation. Policy-makers ought to focus on addressing structural challenges through the implementation of sound structural reform policies that aim to attract investment consistent with job creation, development and growth in South Africa's economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study contributes to the political economy debate in Africa by examining the extent to which economic development mediates the effect of elections on government expenditure. To this end, the study employs macrodata spanning 1985–2015 on 43 African countries for the analysis. Robust evidence from the system GMM estimator shows that: (1) election periods significantly induce government expenditure in Africa, and (2) economic development is significant in reducing the use of fiscal surprise in election periods. Policy recommendations are provided in the end. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The involvement of the state in the market economy through the redistribution of welfare is necessary for moral and economic reasons. The need for a system of social protection is developed in all advanced states to reduce the 'social risks' of the living standards of citizens. Our research aimed to identify the particularities of the governmental social protection policies in the EU states to be able to compare and analyze them correlatively. The main research tools are the cluster method, followed by the visual assessment of cluster tendency (VAT) algorithm for research results validation, and the Hopkins statistic for checking the spatial randomness of the data. The main research variables are public expenditures on social protection and the human development index for the period 2018-2019. The data were collected from Eurostat and Statista. The research results show that the European states are grouped into four clusters. Based on the research analysis results, the European social policies should be better designed and applied with an increased level of public expenditures to raise the population’s standard of living and reduce the gaps among European citizens. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article examines the long-run two-way causal relationship between government revenues and spending and their interaction with the yearly change in public debt for eighteen OECD countries by using annual data for 1976-2017 period. The empirical literature has mainly focused on the long run relationship between government expenditure and revenues or other single country time series while only a few studies have used panel causality analysis and none have investigated the link with the evolution of public debt ratios. The purpose of this paper is to present a dynamic model identifying the underlying relationships constituting the fiscal policy set-up in sample countries. We apply a robust dynamic panel causality methodology based on SUR systems and Wald tests with country specific bootstrap critical values. The study also aims to provide the basis for recommendations on the policy response to public finance challenges stemming from exogenous shocks like the global pandemic that began in 2020. By developing an enhanced analysis of the long-term causal relationship between taxation, spending and their interaction with changes in public debt, the study not only provides fresh insights into the sustainability and optimal design of fiscal adjustment efforts but also offers a country-specific schematization as a guide for policymaking. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Emerging Economies & Policy is the property of JOEEP: Journal of Emerging Economies & Policy and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose -- An attempt to answer two questions: (i) does spending on social-welfare policies constitute a statistically-significant impulse for reducing poverty among various risk groups in the EU countries? And (ii) what is the level of efficiency of social spending when it comes to reducing various problems associated with poverty in the EU member states? Research method -- Two research methods: Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) and extended Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) are used. Results -- It is established that social-welfare policies in most of the EU countries create a sufficient impulse to reduce poverty among elderly people and survivors, families with children and the unemployed. However, the impulse is often not sufficient in the case of people with problems in meeting housing needs, as well as the sick or disabled. What is more, the relative efficiency of social-welfare spending in some of the EU countries is low, which suggest that better outcomes may be achieved not only by increasing the spending, but also by improving the policies among current amount of funds. Surprisingly, the best-performing countries in reducing the poverty by social-welfare policies include, next to Denmark and Finland, also some Central and Eastern European countries: the Czech Republic, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia. Originality/value/implications/recommendations -- The research extends the knowledge on the efficiency and effectiveness of government activities for the purpose of limiting poverty. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Investment is a critical macroeconomic variable for economic growth and development in any country. As a developing country with the fourth largest population in the world, Indonesia is also dependent on investment coming in from both home and abroad. A good investment climate is one of the solutions in overcoming economic problems so that foreign investors can invest in Indonesia. Obviously, various factors influence investors' willingness to invest in Indonesia. The purpose of this study is to examine the impact of government spending, corruption, economic growth and wages on foreign direct investment in Indonesia. The study uses Ordinary Least Square (OLS) multiple linear regression analysis for the research period 2000-2020. The results show that the variables of government spending, corruption and economic growth have positive and significant impact on foreign direct investment, while the variable of salary has negative and significant impact on foreign direct investment. The Indonesian government needs to reduce the level of corruption and wage level to attract investors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Government support is crucial for the competitiveness and success of renewable energy market policies. As an advancement to the previously developed store-on grid (SoG) scheme, this study considered 14 countries to examine the government's role in facilitating the battery energy storage systems (BESS) under the SoG scheme. A methodology for evaluating the total government expenditure on the BESS to achieve the solar photovoltaic cumulative capacity forecasted by the Bass model and possible total greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions avoided was presented. Using a 15 years' timeline and cumulative capacity target of 500 MW, the Bass model forecasting results revealed that over 480 MW cumulative capacity would be achieved under the SoG scheme. The average present value of the total government expenditure on the BESS across the selected countries was about $ 47,154,052. Eswatini at $ 61,304,636 and Zimbabwe at $ 30,924,616 recorded the highest and lowest total government expenditure on the BESS, respectively. This is attributed mainly to the country's forecasted diffusion capacity at the peak point and duration to the inflection points. Furthermore, Zimbabwe with 19.99 MtCO 2 eq and Uganda with 2.79 MtCO 2 eq recorded the highest and least total GHG emissions avoided, respectively, attributed mainly to the country's grid emission factor. • Studied the store-on grid scheme diffusion in selected African countries. •Used the Bass model of innovation diffusion to forecast solar PV adoption. •Proposed the total government expenditure and GHG emissions avoided methodology. •Assessed the government role in the success of store-on grid scheme diffusion. •Undertook a sensitivity analysis of the proposed methodology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objective: Multiple studies have confirmed that diet restrictions can effectively realize glycemic control and reduce metabolic risks in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). In 2018, the American Diabetes Association (ADA) and European Association for the Study of Diabetes (EASD) stated that individuals can select a low-carbohydrate diet (LCD) according to their needs and preferences. Owing to the influence of Chinese traditional eating habits, only a small portion of patients in China have achieved their blood glucose goals. As a result, the Chinese government will incur huge expenditures. Method: This study recruited 134 T2DM participants and randomly assigned them to the LCD group (n = 67) or the low-fat diet (LFD) group (n = 67). All of the patients had a fixed amount of exercise and were guided by clinicians. After a period of dietary washout, all of the patients received corresponding dietary education according to group. The follow-up time was 6 months. The indicators for anthropometry, glycemic control, and medication application parameters were collected and compared between the two groups. Results: There were 121 participants who finally entered the study. The proportions of calories from three major nutrients the participants consumed met the requirements of LCD and LFD. Compared with baseline, the pre-postdifferences of body weight, BMI, and several other indicators were significant except for dosages of insulin used in the LCD group and MES in the LFD group. After the intervention, body weight, body weight index (BMI), fasting blood glucose (FBG), postprandial 2-h blood glucose (PPG), and glycosylated hemoglobin (HbA1c) levels in the LCD group decreased significantly (p < 0.05) compared with the LFD group. The number of patients using lipid-lowering agents was significant higher in the LCD group and lower in the LFD group. However, there was no significant difference between the two groups for antihypertensive, hormone-replacement, and other agents. Conclusions: The LCD diet can decrease body weight, glycemic levels, MES, and lipid-lowering agents more than the LFD diet, thus decreasing cost burden in Chinese patients with T2DM. Strict diet control and monitoring are the keys to managing diabetes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Aim/purpose – This study aims at examining the contribution of government expenditure on service sector growth in Nigeria for the period 1970 to 2017. The service sector and government intervention are vital to economic growth of any country, hence this study.

Abstract The misconception of services as being non-productive has led to the neglect of the service sector in both economic theory and applied economic researches. The Nigerian economy highly depends on the oil sector to generate revenue for the entire economy. This study examines the response of economic growth to the dynamics of the service sector in Nigeria from the windows of governance indicators. Using annual data series, endogenous growth model, and autoregressive distributed lag technique, transportation and communication service subsector is significant and positively related to economic growth. Health service subsector and transportation and communication subservice sector are significant and positively related to economic growth when governance indicators were accounted for. Interaction of the subservice sectors with governance indicators shows that none of the service subsectors were significant but were positively related to economic growth. The study shows that the activities of the education subsector have not contributed significantly to economic growth. Thus, for education to contribute positively to economic growth there is a need for increase in budgetary allocation to education subsector. Efforts made to control corruption and promote government effectiveness should be reviewed frequently to checkmate the processes of governance, so that bureaucratic processes would not hinder services from contributing significantly to economic growth.

This study empirically investigates the relationship between government revenue, government expenditure and the copper price in Mongolia, a resource abundant country. Using quarterly data of government revenue, expenditure and international copper price from 2000 to 2015, the results of auto regression (VAR) show that there is a strong causality from revenue to expenditure, while increase in expenditure, most likely, is not accompanied by rises in revenue. This result is consistent with the revenue-spent hypothesis. Moreover, the result also indicates that copper price shock increases revenue, but decreases expenditure. This finding supports the assumption that the Mongolian government follows its Fiscal Stability Law, a strategy that intends to maintain the stability and sustainability of the government budget.

Abstract Background Increasing medicines availability and affordability is a key goal of Brazilian health policies. “Farmácia Popular” (FP) Program is one of the government’s key strategies to achieve this goal. Under FP, antihypertension (HTN) and antiglycemic (DM) medicines have been provided at subsidized prices in private retail settings since 2006, and free of charge since 2011. We aim to assess the impact of sequential changes in FP benefits on patient affordability and government expenditures for HTN and DM treatment under the FP, and examine their implications for public financing mechanisms and program sustainability. Methods Longitudinal, retrospective study using interrupted time series to analyze: HTN and DM treatment coverage; total and per capita expenditure; percentage paid by MoH; and patient cost sharing. Analyzes were conducted in the dispensing database of the FP program (from 2006 to 2012). Results FP has increased its coverage over time; by December 2012 FP covered on average 13% of DM and 11.5% of HTN utilization, a growth of over 600 and 1500%, respectively. The overall cost per treatment to the MoH declined from R$36.43 (R$ = reais, the Brazilian currency) to 18.74 for HTN and from R$33.07to R$15.05 for DM over the period analyzed, representing a reduction in per capita cost greater than 50%. The amount paid by patients for the medicines covered increased over time until 2011, but then declined to zero. We estimate that to treat all patients in need for HTN and DM in 2012 under FP, the Government would need to expend 97% of the total medicines budget. Conclusions FP rapidly increased its coverage in terms of both program reach and proportion of cost subsidized during the period analyzed. Costs of individual HTN and DM treatments in FP were reduced after 2011 for both patients (free) and government (better negotiated prices). However, overall FP expenditures by MoH increased due to markedly increased utilization. The FP is sustainable as a complementary policy but cannot feasibly substitute for the distribution of medicines by the SUS.

The paper aims at examining the causal relationship between economic growth and government expenditure in selected MENA countries over the period of 1987–2017. Unlike previous studies, we examine the causality in both panel data and time series data to get a clear idea about the causal relationships individually and as a full sample. We also revisited the causal relationship between the two variables within the framework of frequency domain causality. Our findings support the neutrality hypotheses in the short-run term for most of the countries. Thus, economic growth and government expenditure at most frequency levels evolve independently. On the other hand, we found the support of Wagner’s law, Keynes view, neutrality and bidirectional hypotheses in the long term.

The relationship between government spending and revenue during the budgetary disequilibrium can be considered as an important issue in public sector economics. This issue is of high importance in Iran, which oil revenue is the main source of government revenue. The aim of this study is to examine the response of government revenue and spending to budgetary disequilibrium in Iran using a three-variate model, accounting for oil revenue and testing the asymmetry of adjustment process during 1990-2016. The results support the tax-spending hypothesis for Iran. However, according to the long run relationship, the results show that oil revenue stimulates the government to spend more and to collect less tax, which confirms tax displacement hypothesis. ‏Moreover, when the government faces a budget deficit, only government spending responds to budgetary disequilibrium. According to the findings, Iran should reduce its oil-dependence and improve its tax collection system in order to reduce budget deficit.

With regard to the role of fiscal policy in reducing the financial crises, determining the magnitude of the fiscal policy multiplier after the 2007-2008 global crisis became one of the most challenging issues in the field of fiscal policy. In general, the magnitude of the fiscal policy multiplier is estimated larger than one according to the Keynesian viewpoint and smaller than one based on neoclassical viewpoint. The difference in the magnitude of the multiplier comes from the fact that economists believe that the fiscal policy multiplier is influenced by the degree of economic openness, the exchange rate regime, the way monetary policy is applied and the business cycle. Differences about the magnitude of the fiscal policy multiplier among schools of economic thought are evident in both theoretical and empirical dimensions. In this regard, this paper tries to estimate fiscal policy multiplier using structural vector autoregressive model (Blanchard and Peroti, 2002 method and Markov switching approach (Hall, 2009) using the seasonal data for Iran during the period (1990: 1-2017:3). The results of the structural vector autoregressive model showed that the instantaneous multiplier, 10-quarter cumulative multiplier, and the 20-quarter cumulative multiplier of the government expenditure were equal to 0.281, 0.304, and 0.445, respectively. In addition, the corresponding multipliers for taxes were -0. 079, - 0.107 and - 0.171, respectively. Since the fiscal policy multiplier varies based on the economic conditions, the results of the nonlinear Markov switching model showed that the government expenditure multiplier during the recession is 0.828 and it is larger than the same coefficient during the boom period (0.108), on one hand. On the other hand, the tax multiplier during the boom period (-0.194) is larger than its value during the period of recession (-0.092 ).

Research Background: The on-going debate concerning the exact relationship that exists between inflation and government expenditure especially in the long and short run prompted this research.

Research background: Although a number of studies have been conducted on the relationship between public expenditure and economic growth, it is difficult to tell with certainty whether or not an increase in public expenditure is good for economic growth. This lack of consensus on the results of the previous empirical findings makes this study of paramount importance as we take stock of the available empirical evidence from the 1980s to date.