Search

The following dissertation will present an analysis of the intra- and inter-regional impacts of the Quantitative Easing (QE) policies announcements on the appearance of price bubbles in the financial international markets, namely, United States of America, United Kingdom, Japan, and Eurozone. First, we have employed the Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller/Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF/BSADF) test (Phillips et al., 2015), to determine if there were in fact bubbles being created from 1995 to 2021 using daily observations of financial market indexes. Secondly, using a Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model with monthly observations from 1998 until 2021, we tested if QE announcements were impacting the chance of appearing price bubbles, including additionally for the analysis a set of control variables. Results suggest that there are several periods of explosivity in the markets for all 4 regions being in scope, especially during the periods between 2005 and 2015. Secondly, findings show that for the US there is strong evidence that these announcements decrease the chance of price explosiveness. However, in Eurozone and UK there is some evidence of the contrary effect. For Japanese markets there is no evidence of effects. Additionally, for all markets there is clear evidence of cross-regional effects being the most influential central bank the ECB affecting all regions except Japan, giving us the suggestion that the announcements could have widespread repercussions. At last, considering only the control variables, the interest rate is the variable that demonstrates the biggest influence in development of explosivity in the markets. A seguinte dissertação apresenta uma análise dos impactos intra- e inter-regiões dos anúncios de políticas de Quantitative Easing (QE) no surgimento de bolhas dos preços nos mercados financeiros internacionais, nomeadamente, dos Estados Unidos da América, Reino Unido, Japão e Zona Euro. Primeiro, foi realizado o teste Generalized Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller/Backward Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF/BSADF) (Phillips et al., 2015) para determinar se houve bolhas nos valores dos preços durante o período entre 1995 a 2021 usando observações diárias de índices de mercados financeiros. Em segundo lugar, foi testado, através de um modelo Vector Autoregressive (VAR) usando observações mensais entre 1998 e 2021, se os anúncios de QE estavam a afetar a possibilidade de surgir bolhas nos preços, incluindo adicionalmente para a análise uma série de varáveis de controlo. Os resultados sugerem que existem períodos de explosividade nos mercados para as quatro regiões a serem analisados, especialmente no período entre 2005 e 2015. Posteriormente, foi demonstrado que para os mercados dos EUA, existe uma forte evidência que os anúncios diminuem a possibilidade de explosividade dos preços. No entanto, para a Zona Euro e Reino Unido existe alguma evidência do contrário. Nos mercados japoneses não existe evidência de efeitos. Adicionalmente, em todos os mercados existe evidência de efeitos inter-regionais, sendo o banco central com maior influência o BCE, afetando simultaneamente todas as regiões exceto o Japão. Por fim, considerando apenas as variáveis de controlo, a taxa de juro é a variável que demonstra maior influência no desenvolvimento de explosividade nos mercados.

The euro area emerged from the euro crisis without meeting the conditions presented by the theory of optimum currency area. The decisive policy that ended this crisis was the Outright Monetary Transactions policy. Besides, the quantitative easing policy supports the economy of the euro area after this crisis. To examine the impact of these supranational monetary policies on the business cycles in the euro area, which is not covered by optimum currency area theory, we use a Kaldorian two-country model featuring a monetary union and imperfect capital mobility. We find that an increase in government bond purchases is a stabilizing factor, whereas an extreme increase in the degree of counter-cyclical fiscal policy is a destabilizing factor. Nevertheless, as long as the fiscal and monetary policies of two countries are not extremely active, but active to a certain extent, the equilibrium point becomes locally stable. Furthermore, even if the business cycles are not synchronized, the purchase of government bonds of a particular country is effective in stabilizing the business cycles of both countries. From these results, we suggest that the euro area satisfies the metacriteria of an optimum currency area through the implementation of a government bond purchase system by a supranational central bank system.

This paper attempts to examine Pakistan’s trade patterns with South Asian countries by using a gravity model of trade. The main objective of the study is to quantify the long‑run impacts of gravity variables. To achieve this objective, a panel data set for the period 2003 to 2017 has been used. Based on the mixed evidence of the results of panel unit root tests, Pooled Mean Group (PMG) and Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS) techniques are applied. The outcome of the PMG and Panel DOLS models justifies the theoretical background of the gravity model and suggests that all the basic gravity variables haveusual signs. The RGDPs and population of both Pakistan and the partner country have a positive impact on their bilateral trade. On the other hand, the distance between the two trading countries and the exchange rate have a negative impact on bilateral trade.The uniqueness of this study is that it measures the impacts of qualitative variables along with basic gravity variables. Language similarities and common borders have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Pakistan has borders with India and Afghanistan, but their trade relations are not worth mentioning. The military conflicts between Pakistan and India, and the political suspicions between Pakistan and Afghanistan hinder their trade relations. W artykule podjęto próbę zbadania wzorców handlowych widocznych w relacjach Pakistanu z krajami Azji Południowej przy użyciu grawitacyjnego modelu handlu. Głównym celem badania było ilościowe określenie długoterminowego wpływu zmiennych grawitacyjnych. Aby osiągnąć ten cel, wykorzystano zestaw danych panelowych dla lat 2003–2017. Ponieważ wyniki testów panelowych pierwiastka jednostkowego były niewiarygodne, zastosowano techniki Pooled Mean Group (PMG) i Panel Dynamic Ordinary Least Square (DOLS). Wyniki modeli PMG i Panel DOLS uzasadniają teoretyczne podstawy modelu grawitacyjnego i sugerują, że wszystkie podstawowe zmienne grawitacyjne mają typowe znaki. Realny PKB i liczba ludności zarówno Pakistanu, jak i kraju partnerskiego mają pozytywny wpływ na ich handel dwustronny. Z drugiej strony odległość między dwoma krajami dokonującymi wymiany handlowej oraz kurs walutowy mają negatywny wpływ na handel dwustronny. Wyjątkowość tego badania polega na tym, że mierzy ono jednocześnie wpływ zmiennych jakościowych oraz podstawowych zmiennych grawitacyjnych. Podobieństwa językowe i wspólne granice mają pozytywny wpływ na handel dwustronny. Jednakże, choć Pakistan graniczy z Indiami i Afganistanem, ich relacje handlowe nie są istotne. Konflikty zbrojne między Pakistanem a Indiami oraz polityczna podejrzliwość w relacjach Pakistanu z Afganistanem komplikują ich stosunki handlowe.

U.S. monetary policy has been claimed to generate global spillover and to destabilize other small open economies. We analyze the effects of certain identified U.S. monetary shocks on gross capital flows in the Korean economy using the local projection method. Consistent with previous results on other small open economies, we initially confirm that U.S. interest rate hikes are dynamically correlated with foreign outflows and residents’ inflows. That is, not only are they correlated with withdrawals by foreigners but they are also correlated with those by domestic (Korean) investors. The results are mostly driven by portfolio flows. Second, however, the marginal response to a U.S. monetary policy shock is, on average, subdued if we focus on the sample periods after the Global financial crisis of 2007-2008 (henceforth, global financial crisis). We conjecture a possible reason behind the change, an institutional change related to financial friction. If the degree of pledgeability of the value of net worth increases, the marginal responses by both investors would drop with a U.S. monetary policy shock, consistent with our findings.

This paper evaluates the macroeconomic effects of the European Central Bank's (ECB) Expanded asset purchase programme (APP) on Latvia and other euro area jurisdictions and investigates the cross-border transmission mechanism. To that end, we employ two different vector autoregressive (VAR) models, namely a bilateral structural VAR with block exogeneity (BSVAR-BE) and a multi-country mixed cross-section global VAR with stochastic volatility (MCS-BGVAR-SV). We find that the APP had a limited and weakly significant impact on Latvia's output while the effect on inflation has been robust due to depreciation of the euro. Regarding other jurisdictions, results suggest that the ECB's asset purchases had a larger impact on industrial production in the countries where it drove down long-term interest rates the most via portfolio rebalancing channel. Despite that, our evidence suggests that the APP was mainly transmitted to inflation via exchange rate depreciation rather than through aggregate demand-driven shifts in the Phillips curve.

Since the last global financial crisis supervisory mechanisms and regulations have become more stringent which have significantly improved resilience of banks therefore positively affecting financial stability. Apart from traditional financial institutions which have been supervised according to strict regulations and standards technological development in financial services commonly called FinTech have introduced new trends providing fast peer to peer lending which directly matches lenders and borrowers thus putting more pressure to policymakers and supervisors. This paper presents potential implications of FinTech developments to financial stability, while explaining FinTech influence to market structure as well as benefits and risks of technologically driven financial innovations to financial stability. The paper stresses out an importance of international cooperation of regulators in order to preserve financial stability in the recent world of technological changes and innovations. FinTech has changed consumers’ expectations and preferences while increasing the number of users expecting fast and easily accessible services available on mobile phones and other electronic devices. The paper shows that new technology provides the space for expanding financial services but it also poses additional risks to financial system in terms of microfinancial and macrofinancial risks.

We use the recently created monthly Interest Rate Uncertainty measure, to investigate monetary policy uncertainty across the US, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, UK, Japan, Canada, and Sweden in both the time and frequency domains. We find that the largest spillover indices are from innovations in the country itself; however, there are some instances where spillover indices between countries are large. These relationships change over time and we observe large variances in pairwise spillovers during the global financial crisis. We find that most of the volatility is confined to the crisis period. Policy makers should consider accounting for the spillovers from the US, Germany, France and Spain, as we found that they are the most consistent net transmitters of monetary policy uncertainty.

Identifying exogenous variation in monetary policy is crucial for investigating central bank policy transmission. Using newly-collected archival real-time data utilized by the Central Bank Council of the German Bundesbank, we identify unexpected changes in German monetary policy from 580 policy meetings between 1974 and 1998. German monetary policy shocks produce conventional effects on the German domestic economy: activity, prices, and credit decline significantly following a monetary contraction. But given Germany's central role in the European Monetary System (EMS), we can also shed light on debates about the international transmission of monetary policy and the relative importance of the U.S. Federal Reserve for the global cycle during these years. We find that Bundesbank policy spillovers were much stronger in major EMS economies with Deutschmark pegs than in non-EMS economies with floating exchange rates. Furthermore, compared to monetary spillovers from the U.S., German spillovers were comparable or even larger in magnitude for both pegs and floats.

This paper analyzes the macroeconomic impact of corporate taxation. The analysis is conducted in a quantitative two-country model. In the first step, the paper describes the long-run effects of corporate taxation. A reduction in the corporate-income tax rate increases GDP, wages, consumption, investment, and business density. The trade balance is at the same time negatively affected. Firms headquartered in a country which lowers its corporate tax become internationally less active and instead focus more on their domestic market. In the second step, the paper presents adjustment dynamics that are induced by a corporate-tax reform. The dynamic response of the economy can substantially differ when comparing shorter and longer time horizons.

China’s lending boom to developing countries is morphing into defaults and debt distress. Given the secrecy surrounding China’s loans, also the associated defaults remain “hidden”, as missed payments and restructuring details are not disclosed. This paper constructs an encompassing dataset of sovereign debt restructurings with Chinese lenders and finds that these credit events are surprisingly frequent, exceeding the number of sovereign bond or Paris Club restructurings. Chinese lenders follow a resolution approach reminiscent of 1980s Western lenders; they seldom provide deep debt relief with face value reduction. If history is any guide, multi-year debt workouts with serial restructurings lie in store.

There are many reasons to reform the Stability and Growth Pact, but that reform is no panacea. This is because the euro area periphery has increasingly entered a debt conundrum.

Using the measures proposed by Mink et al. (2012), we reexamine the coherence of business cycles in the euro area using a long sample period. We also analyze the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business cycle coherence and examine whether our measures for business cycle coherence indicate a core versus periphery within EMU. Our results suggest that business cycle coherence did not increase monotonically. The COVID-19 pandemic made that the signs of the output gaps of euro area countries became more similar, but we find large differences in the amplitude of the output gaps across countries.

This paper gives an overview on the use of macroprudential policy measures (MPMs) and capital flow management measures (CFMs) by emerging economies, and reviews literature on the effectiveness of these measures in containing the effects of large and volatile capital flows. The main findings of the paper are the following: First, major EMEs tend to use both MPMs and CFMs more than AEs. Second, the empirical evidence on the effectiveness of CFMs remains mixed. Third, there is indicative evidence that MPMs can contain the effects of capital flow volatility. Lastly, there is still little research into the interaction of CFMs and MPMs.

This paper investigates the effects of monetary policy shocks on income and wealth inequalities in the Republic of Korea. Using the detailed Household Income and Expenditure Survey and Korean Labor and Income Panel Study data, we construct measures of income and wealth inequality for the Korean economy. Empirical results show that both domestic and external monetary policy shocks exert significant countercyclical effects on income inequality. For wealth inequality, however, the effects are very different. Whereas domestic monetary policy shocks are insignificant, external policy shocks proxied by fluctuations in net capital flows seem to have significant effects on net wealth inequality.

The paper analyzes under what circumstances policymakers experiment with policies with uncertain outcomes, when they prefer to imitate policies initiated in other countries, and when they prefer to coordinate policies internationally. Policymakers have private costs of active policies and compete internationally in a yardstick competition which gives rise to a potential distortion between what citizens want and what policymakers do. I find that policymakers’ policies as well as regime choice deviate from what citizens want but that an increase in uncertainty about policy outcomes decreases this distortion.

Finding common ground across EU member states in responding to China's increasingly prominent position in the global economy has thus far proven a challenge. As the EU tries to find a 'third way' for dealing with its most important trading partners amid heightened US-China tensions, selected countries within the CESEE region have been deepening their investment relations with China. Given these countries' significant capital needs for economic development, and in view of the EU's arguable neglect of parts of the region, it is hardly surprising that they would be incentivised to seek out alternative investors. In addition to managing the risks arising from debt dependencies, China's growing position in the 17+1 countries' energy sectors may present a possible risk area. The EU investment screening mechanism is unlikely to align strategic interests across member states in its present scope, given the deficiencies in enforcement. With Austria's established investment presence and relative geographical proximity to the 17+1 countries, it needs to play a key role in moving the dialogue in the direction of harmonising EU investment screening mechanisms, aligning incentives through greater involvement of the Western Balkans in development financing from the EU and offering realistic EU accession prospects. The Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) would have constituted a positive step towards a mutually beneficial and competitively neutral investment relationship with China, despite its numerous shortcomings. Austria and the EU-CEE countries should therefore lean towards resumed engagement with China regarding the possible ratification of the CAI, keeping core European values in mind. The EU should prioritise proactive policies to drive growth at home, leveraging the continent's innovation capacities, and not only rely on defensive mechanisms to keep out unwanted FDI. Ultimately, Austria should recognise and emphasise mutual respect and co-operation towards common goals among the world's major trading blocs, despite sometimes profound differences in economic models.

Lockdowns imposed to fight the Covid-19 pandemic have cross-border effects. In this paper, we estimate the empirical magnitude of lockdown spillovers in a set of panel local projections. We use daily indicators of economic activity such as stock returns, effective exchange rates, NO2 emissions, mobility and maritime container trade. Lockdown shocks originating in the most important trading partners have a strong and significant adverse effect on economic activity in the home economy. For stock prices and exports, the spillovers can even be larger than the effect of domestic lockdown shocks. The results are robust with respect to alternative country weights used to construct foreign shocks, i.e. weights based on foreign direct investment or the connectedness through value chains. We find that lockdown spillovers have been par-ticularly strong during the first wave of the pandemic. Countries with a higher export share are particularly exposed to lockdown spillovers.

I provide evidence of substantial hysteresis (i.e., a situation in which temporary shocks have longrun effects) from monetary shocks on two sources of endogenous growth; human capital and technological adoption. This contribution is the first to test for the presence of this phenomenon in direct measures of the supply-side potential of economies, instead of indirect measures, e.g., TFP. To estimate the effects of exogenous monetary policy shocks, I improve on the the trilemma identification by incorporating a mean-unbiased instrumental variable estimator. Results show substantial hysteresis in both human capital and technological adoption. Importantly, these are found to be asymmetric, as only contractionary shocks result in long lasting responses. I evaluate the aggregate importance of monetary hysteresis with a growth accounting exercise. Across the 17 countries in sample, the accumulated average cost of monetary hysteresis ranges between 1.2 and 9.6% of TFP, for human capital and the adoption of electricity, respectively.