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Objective: To determine the relationship of a genome-wide polygenic score for coronary artery disease (GPS CAD ) with lifetime trajectories of CAD risk, directly compare its predictive capacity to traditional risk factors, and assess its interplay with the Pooled Cohort Equations (PCE) clinical risk estimator. Approach and Results: We studied GPS CAD in 28 556 middle-aged participants of the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study, of whom 4122 (14.4%) developed CAD over a median follow-up of 21.3 years. A pronounced gradient in lifetime risk of CAD was observed-16% for those in the lowest GPS CAD decile to 48% in the highest. We evaluated the discriminative capacity of the GPS CAD -as assessed by change in the C-statistic from a baseline model including age and sex-among 5685 individuals with PCE risk estimates available. The increment for the GPS CAD (+0.045, P <0.001) was higher than for any of 11 traditional risk factors (range +0.007 to +0.032). Minimal correlation was observed between GPS CAD and 10-year risk defined by the PCE ( r =0.03), and addition of GPS CAD improved the C-statistic of the PCE model by 0.026. A significant gradient in lifetime risk was observed for the GPS CAD , even among individuals within a given PCE clinical risk stratum. We replicated key findings-noting strikingly consistent results-in 325 003 participants of the UK Biobank., Conclusions: GPS CAD -a risk estimator available from birth-stratifies individuals into varying trajectories of clinical risk for CAD. Implementation of GPS CAD may enable identification of high-risk individuals early in life, decades in advance of manifest risk factors or disease.

Pancreatic cancer (PC) is a highly fatal cancer with currently limited opportunities for early detection and effective treatment. Modifiable factors may offer pathways for primary prevention. In this study, the association between the Healthy Lifestyle Index (HLI) and PC risk was examined. Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort, 1113 incident PC (57% women) were diagnosed from 400,577 participants followed-up for 15 years (median). HLI scores combined smoking, alcohol intake, dietary exposure, physical activity and, in turn, overall and central adiposity using BMI (HLI BMI ) and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR, HLI WHR ), respectively. High values of HLI indicate adherence to healthy behaviors. Cox proportional hazard models with age as primary time variable were used to estimate PC hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Sensitivity analyses were performed by excluding, in turn, each factor from the HLI score. Population attributable fractions (PAF) were estimated assuming participants' shift to healthier lifestyles. The HRs for a one-standard deviation increment of HLI BMI and HLI WHR were 0.84 (95% CI: 0.79, 0.89; p trend  = 4.3e-09) and 0.77 (0.72, 0.82; p trend  = 1.7e-15), respectively. Exclusions of smoking from HLI WHR resulted in HRs of 0.88 (0.82, 0.94; p trend  = 4.9e-04). The overall PAF estimate was 19% (95% CI: 11%, 26%), and 14% (6%, 21%) when smoking was removed from the score. Adherence to a healthy lifestyle was inversely associated with PC risk, beyond the beneficial role of smoking avoidance. Public health measures targeting compliance with healthy lifestyles may have an impact on PC incidence.

Emerging evidence suggests that a metabolic profile associated with obesity may be a more relevant risk factor for some cancers than adiposity per se. Basal metabolic rate (BMR) is an indicator of overall body metabolism and may be a proxy for the impact of a specific metabolic profile on cancer risk. Therefore, we investigated the association of predicted BMR with incidence of 13 obesity-related cancers in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). BMR at baseline was calculated using the WHO/FAO/UNU equations and the relationships between BMR and cancer risk were investigated using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models. A total of 141,295 men and 317,613 women, with a mean follow-up of 14 years were included in the analysis. Overall, higher BMR was associated with a greater risk for most cancers that have been linked with obesity. However, among normal weight participants, higher BMR was associated with elevated risks of esophageal adenocarcinoma (hazard ratio per 1-standard deviation change in BMR [HR 1-SD ]: 2.46; 95% CI 1.20; 5.03) and distal colon cancer (HR 1-SD : 1.33; 95% CI 1.001; 1.77) among men and with proximal colon (HR 1-SD : 1.16; 95% CI 1.01; 1.35), pancreatic (HR 1-SD : 1.37; 95% CI 1.13; 1.66), thyroid (HR 1-SD : 1.65; 95% CI 1.33; 2.05), postmenopausal breast (HR 1-SD : 1.17; 95% CI 1.11; 1.22) and endometrial (HR 1-SD : 1.20; 95% CI 1.03; 1.40) cancers in women. These results indicate that higher BMR may be an indicator of a metabolic phenotype associated with risk of certain cancer types, and may be a useful predictor of cancer risk independent of body fatness., (© 2019 International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC/WHO); licensed by UICC.)

Background: Several dietary factors have been reported to be associated with risk of breast cancer, but to date, unequivocal evidence only exists for alcohol consumption. We sought to systematically assess the association between intake of 92 foods and nutrients and breast cancer risk using a nutrient-wide association study., Methods: Using data from 272,098 women participating in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study, we assessed dietary intake of 92 foods and nutrients estimated by dietary questionnaires. Cox regression was used to quantify the association between each food/nutrient and risk of breast cancer. A false discovery rate (FDR) of 0.05 was used to select the set of foods and nutrients to be replicated in the independent Netherlands Cohort Study (NLCS)., Results: Six foods and nutrients were identified as associated with risk of breast cancer in the EPIC study (10,979 cases). Higher intake of alcohol overall was associated with a higher risk of breast cancer (hazard ratio (HR) for a 1 SD increment in intake = 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.07), as was beer/cider intake and wine intake (HRs per 1 SD increment = 1.05, 95% CI 1.03-1.06 and 1.04, 95% CI 1.02-1.06, respectively), whereas higher intakes of fibre, apple/pear, and carbohydrates were associated with a lower risk of breast cancer (HRs per 1 SD increment = 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.98; 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.99; and 0.96, 95% CI 0.95-0.98, respectively). When evaluated in the NLCS (2368 cases), estimates for each of these foods and nutrients were similar in magnitude and direction, with the exception of beer/cider intake, which was not associated with risk in the NLCS., Conclusions: Our findings confirm a positive association of alcohol consumption and suggest an inverse association of dietary fibre and possibly fruit intake with breast cancer risk.

Apart from the consistently observed differential association between obesity and breast cancer risk by menopausal status, the associations between obesity and other metabolic imbalances with risks of cancers have not been systematically investigated across the age-course. We created two random 50-50% cohorts from six European cohorts comprising 813,927 individuals. In the "discovery cohort", we used Cox regression with attained age as time-scale and tested interactions between body mass index (BMI), blood pressure, plasma glucose, triglycerides and cholesterol, and attained age in relation to cancer risk. Results with a p-value below 0.05 were additionally tested in the "replication cohort" where a replicated result was considered evidence of a linear interaction with attained age. These findings were investigated by flexible parametric survival models for any age-plateaus in their shape of associations with cancer risk across age. Consistent with other studies, BMI was negatively related to breast cancer risk (n cases = 11,723) among younger (premenopausal) women. However, the association remained negative for several years after menopause and, although gradually weakening over age, the association became positive only at 62 years of age. This linear and positive age-interaction was also found for triglycerides and breast cancer, and for BMI and triglycerides in relation to liver cancer among men (n cases = 444). These findings are unlikely to be due to chance owing to the replication. The linear age-interactions in breast cancer may suggest an influence by other age-related factors than menopause; however, further investigation of age-related effect modifiers in both breast and liver cancer is needed., (© 2019 UICC.)

Background: Epidemiological studies suggest that haem iron, which is found predominantly in red meat and increases endogenous formation of carcinogenic N-nitroso compounds, may be positively associated with lung cancer. The objective was to examine the relationship between haem iron intake and lung cancer risk using detailed smoking history data and serum cotinine to control for potential confounding., Methods: In the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC), 416,746 individuals from 10 countries completed demographic and dietary questionnaires at recruitment. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for incident lung cancer (n = 3731) risk relative to haem iron, non-haem iron, and total dietary iron intake. A corresponding analysis was conducted among a nested subset of 800 lung cancer cases and 1489 matched controls for whom serum cotinine was available., Results: Haem iron was associated with lung cancer risk, including after adjustment for details of smoking history (time since quitting, number of cigarettes per day): as a continuous variable (HR per 0.3 mg/1000 kcal 1.03, 95% CI 1.00-1.07), and in the highest versus lowest quintile (HR 1.16, 95% CI 1.02-1.32; trend across quintiles: P = 0.035). In contrast, non-haem iron intake was related inversely with lung cancer risk; however, this association attenuated after adjustment for smoking history. Additional adjustment for serum cotinine did not considerably alter the associations detected in the nested case-control subset., Conclusions: Greater haem iron intake may be modestly associated with lung cancer risk.

The epidemiological evidence regarding the association of coffee and tea consumption with prostate cancer risk is inconclusive, and few cohort studies have assessed these associations by disease stage and grade. We examined the associations of coffee (total, caffeinated and decaffeinated) and tea intake with prostate cancer risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition. Among 142,196 men, 7,036 incident prostate cancer cases were diagnosed over 14 years of follow-up. Data on coffee and tea consumption were collected through validated country-specific food questionnaires at baseline. We used Cox proportional hazards regression models to compute hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Models were stratified by center and age, and adjusted for anthropometric, lifestyle and dietary factors. Median coffee and tea intake were 375 and 106 mL/day, respectively, but large variations existed by country. Comparing the highest (median of 855 mL/day) versus lowest (median of 103 mL/day) consumers of coffee and tea (450 vs. 12 mL/day) the HRs were 1.02 (95% CI, 0.94-1.09) and 0.98 (95% CI, 0.90-1.07) for risk of total prostate cancer and 0.97 (95% CI, 0.79-1.21) and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.70-1.13) for risk of fatal disease, respectively. No evidence of association was seen for consumption of total, caffeinated or decaffeinated coffee or tea and risk of total prostate cancer or cancer by stage, grade or fatality in this large cohort. Further investigations are needed to clarify whether an association exists by different preparations or by concentrations and constituents of these beverages., (© 2018 UICC.)

Purpose: Enterolactone (ENL) is formed in the human gut after consumption of lignans, has estrogenic properties, and has been associated with risk of prostate cancer. We examined the association between plasma ENL levels and prostate cancer in a nested case-control study within the population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer cohort. We also examined the association between plasma ENL and dietary and lifestyle factors., Methods: The study population consisted of 1010 cases occurring during a mean follow-up of 14.6 years, and 1817 controls matched on age and study entry date. We used national registers (95%) and hospital records (5%) to ascertain cases. Diet was estimated by a modified diet history method. Plasma ENL concentrations were determined by a time-resolved fluoroimmunoassay. Odds ratios were calculated by unconditional logistic regression., Results: There were no significant associations between plasma ENL and incidence of all prostate cancer (odds ratio 0.99 [95% confidence interval 0.77-1.280] for the highest ENL quintile versus lowest, p for trend 0.66). However, in certain subgroups of men, including men with abdominal obesity (p for interaction = 0.012), we observed associations between high ENL levels and lower odds of high-risk prostate cancer. Plasma ENL was positively associated with consumption of high-fibre bread, fruit, tea, and coffee; with age, and with height, while it was negatively associated with smoking and waist circumference; however, although significant, all associations were rather weak (r ≤ |0.14|)., Conclusion: ENL concentration was not consistently associated with lower prostate cancer risk, although it was weakly associated with a healthy lifestyle.

Diets high in red or processed meat have been associated positively with some cancers, and several possible underlying mechanisms have been proposed, including iron-related pathways. However, the role of meat intake in adult glioma risk has yielded conflicting findings because of small sample sizes and heterogeneous tumour classifications. The aim of this study was to examine red meat, processed meat and iron intake in relation to glioma risk in the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study. In this prospective cohort study, 408 751 individuals from nine European countries completed demographic and dietary questionnaires at recruitment. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to examine intake of red meat, processed meat, total dietary iron and haem iron in relation to incident glioma. During an average follow-up of 14.1 years, 688 incident glioma cases were diagnosed. There was no evidence that any of the meat variables (red, processed meat or subtypes of meat) or iron (total or haem) were associated with glioma; results were unchanged when the first 2 years of follow-up were excluded. This study suggests that there is no association between meat or iron intake and adult glioma. This is the largest prospective analysis of meat and iron in relation to glioma and as such provides a substantial contribution to a limited and inconsistent literature.

Fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake is considered as probably protective against overall cancer risk, but results in previous studies are not consistent for thyroid cancer (TC). The purpose of this study is to examine the association between the consumption of fruits, vegetables, fruit juices and differentiated thyroid cancer risk within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) study. The EPIC study is a cohort including over half a million participants, recruited between 1991 and 2000. During a mean follow-up of 14 years, 748 incident first primary differentiated TC cases were identified. F&V and fruit juice intakes were assessed through validated country-specific dietary questionnaires. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated using Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounding factors. Comparing the highest versus lowest quartile of intake, differentiated TC risk was not associated with intakes of total F&V (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.68-1.15; p-trend = 0.44), vegetables (HR: 0.89; 95% CI: 0.69-1.14; p-trend = 0.56), or fruit (HR: 1.00; 95% CI: 0.79-1.26; p-trend = 0.64). No significant association was observed with any individual type of vegetable or fruit. However, there was a positive borderline trend with fruit juice intake (HR: 1.23; 95% CI: 0.98-1.53; p-trend = 0.06). This study did not find any significant association between F&V intakes and differentiated TC risk; however a positive trend with fruit juice intake was observed, possibly related to its high sugar content., (© 2017 UICC.)

Type 2 diabetes (T2D) and adiposity associate with increased risk of several cancers, but the impact of competing risk of noncancer deaths on these associations is not known. We prospectively examined participants in the Malmö Diet and Cancer Study aged 44-73 years with no history of cancer at baseline (n = 26,953, 43% men). T2D was ascertained at baseline and during follow-up, and body mass index (BMI) and waist circumference (WC) at baseline. Multivariable cause-specific hazard ratios (HR) and subdistribution hazard ratios (sHR), taking into account noncancer deaths, were estimated using Cox- and competing risk regression. During follow-up (mean 17 years), 7,061 incident cancers (3,220 obesity-related cancer types) and 2,848 cancer deaths occurred. BMI and WC were associated with increased risk of obesity-related cancer incidence and cancer mortality. In T2D subjects, risk of obesity-related cancer was elevated among men (HR = 1.31, 95% CI: 1.12-1.54; sHR = 1.29, 95% CI: 1.10-1.52), and cancer mortality among both men and women (HR = 1.34, 95% CI: 1.20-1.49; sHR = 1.30, 95% CI: 1.16-1.45). There was no elevated actual risk of cancer death in T2D patients with long disease duration (sHR = 1.00, 95% CI: 0.83-1.20). There was a significant additive effect of T2D and adiposity on risk of obesity-related cancer and cancer mortality. In conclusion, detection bias may partially explain the increased risk of cancer morbidity among T2D patients. Both excess risk of competing events among patients with T2D and depletion of susceptibles due to earlier cancer detection will lower the actual risk of cancer, particularly with longer diabetes duration and at older ages., (© 2017 The Authors International Journal of Cancer published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of UICC.)

Consumption of fruits and vegetables is associated with a lower overall mortality. The aim of this study was to identify causes of death through which this association is established. More than 450,000 participants from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition study were included, of which 25,682 were reported deceased after 13 years of follow-up. Information on lifestyle, diet and vital status was collected through questionnaires and population registries. Hazard ratios (HR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) for death from specific causes were calculated from Cox regression models, adjusted for potential confounders. Participants reporting consumption of more than 569 g/day of fruits and vegetables had lower risks of death from diseases of the circulatory (HR for upper fourth 0.85, 95% CI 0.77-0.93), respiratory (HR for upper fourth 0.73, 95% CI 0.59-0.91) and digestive system (HR for upper fourth 0.60, 95% CI 0.46-0.79) when compared with participants consuming less than 249 g/day. In contrast, a positive association with death from diseases of the nervous system was observed. Inverse associations were generally observed for vegetable, but not for fruit consumption. Associations were more pronounced for raw vegetable consumption, when compared with cooked vegetable consumption. Raw vegetable consumption was additionally inversely associated with death from neoplasms and mental and behavioral disorders. The lower risk of death associated with a higher consumption of fruits and vegetables may be derived from inverse associations with diseases of the circulatory, respiratory and digestive system, and may depend on the preparation of vegetables and lifestyle factors.

Increased plasma concentrations of small LDL particles denote an atherogenic lipoprotein phenotype (ALP) that is correlated with increased circulating TAG and reduced HDL-cholesterol. Principal component analyses of subfraction concentrations have previously been used in the Swedish population-based Malmö Diet and Cancer (MDC) cohort to identify three independent components, one pattern representing the ALP. The aim of the present study was to examine the associations between macronutrient intakes and the principal component representing the ALP. We examined 4301 healthy subjects (46-68 years old, 60 % women) at baseline in the MDC cohort. Dietary data were collected using a modified diet history method. Plasma lipoprotein subfractions were measured using a high-resolution ion mobility method. The principal component corresponding to the ALP was significantly associated with a higher intake of disaccharides, and inversely related to protein and alcohol consumption (P < 0·001 for all). The present findings indicate that the ALP may be improved by a low intake of disaccharides, and moderate intakes of protein and alcohol.