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We investigated the mechanisms of phytoplankton competition during the spring bloom, one of the most dramatic seasonal events in lower-trophic-level ecosystems, in four state-of-the-art plankton functional type (PFT) models: PISCES, NEMURO, PlankTOM5 and CCSM-BEC. In particular, we investigated the relative importance of different ecophysiological processes on the determination of the community structure, focusing both on the bottom-up and the top-down controls. The models reasonably reproduced the observed global distribution and seasonal variation of phytoplankton biomass. The fraction of diatoms with respect to the total phytoplankton biomass increases with the magnitude of the spring bloom in all models. However, the governing mechanisms differ between models, despite the fact that current PFT models represent ecophysiological processes using the same types of parameterizations. The increasing trend in the percentage of diatoms with increasing bloom magnitude is mainly caused by a stronger nutrient dependence of diatom growth compared to nanophytoplankton (bottom-up control). The difference in the maximum growth rate plays an important role in NEMURO and PlankTOM5 and determines the absolute values of the percentage of diatoms during the bloom. In CCSM-BEC, the light dependency of growth plays an important role in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The grazing pressure by zooplankton (top-down control), however, strongly contributes to the dominance of diatoms in PISCES and CCSM-BEC. The regional differences in the percentage of diatoms in PlankTOM5 are mainly determined by top-down control. These differences in the mechanisms suggest that the response of marine ecosystems to climate change could significantly differ among models, even if the present-day ecosystem is reproduced to a similar degree of confidence. For further understanding of plankton competition and for the prediction of future change in marine ecosystems, it is important to understand the relative differences in each physiological rate and life history rate in the bottom-up and the top-down controls between PFTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We compare the spatial and temporal representation of phytoplankton functional types (pPFTs) in four different Dynamic Green Ocean Models (DGOMs; CCSM-BEC, NEMURO, PISCES and PlankTOM5) to derived phytoplankton distributions from two independent satellite estimates, with a particular focus on diatom distributions. Global annual mean surface biomass estimates for diatoms vary between 0.23 mmolCm-3 and 0.77 mmolCm-3 in the models, and are comparable to a satellite-derived estimate (0.41 mmolCm-3). All models consistently simulate a higher zonal mean diatom biomass contribution in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes, but the relative diatom contribution varies substantially between models with largest differences in the high latitudes (20% to 100% of total biomass). We investigate phytoplankton distribution in terms of annual and monthly mean dominance patterns, i.e. the distribution of locations where a given PFT contributes more than 50% to total biomass. In all models, diatoms tend to dominate large areas of the high latitudes of both hemispheres, and the area of the surface ocean dominated by diatoms is significantly higher in the models than in the satellite estimates. We estimate the realized ecological niches filled by the dominant pPFT at each location as a function of annual mean surface nitrate concentration (NO3), sea surface temperature (SST), and mixed layer depth. A general additive model (GAM) is used to map the probability of dominance of all pPFTs in niche and geographic space. Models tend to simulate diatom dominance over a wider temperature and nutrient range, whereas satellites confine diatom dominance to a narrower niche of low-intermediate annual mean temperatures (annual mean SST< 10 °C), but allow for niches in different ranges of surface NO3 concentrations. For annual mean diatom dominance, the statistically modelled probability of dominance explains the majority of the variance in the data (65.2-66.6 %). For the satellite estimates, the explained deviance is much lower (44.6% and 32.7 %). The differences in the representation of diatoms among models and compared to satellite estimates highlights the need to better resolve phytoplankton succession and phenology in the models. This work is part of the marine ecosystem inter-comparison project (MAREMIP). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Air-sea CO2 fluxes over the Pacific Ocean are known to be characterized by coherent large-scale structures that reflect not only ocean subduction and upwelling patterns, but also the combined effects of wind-driven gas exchange and biology. On the largest scales, a large net CO2 influx into the extra-tropics is associated with a robust seasonal cycle, and a large net CO2 efflux from the tropics is associated with substantial inter-annual variability. In this work, we have synthesized estimates of the net air-sea CO2 flux from a variety of products drawing upon a variety of approaches in three sub-basins of the Pacific Ocean, i.e., the North Pacific extra-tropics (18° N-66° N), the tropical Pacific (18° S-18° N), and the South Pacific extra-tropics (44.5° S-18° S). These approaches include those based on the measurements of CO2 partial pressure in surface seawater (pCO2sw), inversions of ocean interior CO2 data, forward ocean biogeochemistry models embedded in the ocean general circulation models (OBGCMs), a model with assimilation of pCO2sw data, and inversions of atmospheric CO2 measurements. Long-term means, inter-annual variations and mean seasonal variations of the regionally-integrated fluxes were compared in each of the sub-basins over the last two decades, spanning the period from 1990 through 2009. A simple average of the long-term mean fluxes obtained with surface water pCO2 diagnostics and those obtained with ocean interior CO2 inversions are -0.47 ± 0.13PgCyr-1 in the North Pacific extra-tropics, +0.44 ± 0 .14PgCyr-1 in the tropical Pacific, and -0.37 ± 0.08PgCyr-1 in the South Pacific extra-tropics, where positive fluxes are into the atmosphere. This suggests that approximately half of the CO2 taken up over the North and South Pacific extra-tropics is released back to the atmosphere from the tropical Pacific. These estimates of the regional fluxes are also supported by the estimates from OBGCMs after adding the riverine CO2 flux, i.e., -0.49 ± 0.02PgCyr-1 in the North Pacific extratropics, +0.41 ± 0.05PgCyr-1 in the tropical Pacific, and -0.39 ± 0.11 PgCyr-1 in the South Pacific extra-tropics. The estimates from the atmospheric CO2 inversions show large variations amongst different inversion systems, but their median fluxes are consistent with the estimates from climatological pCO2sw data and pCO2sw diagnostics. In the South Pacific extra-tropics, where CO2 variations in the surface and ocean interior are severely under-sampled, the difference in the air-sea CO2 flux estimates between the diagnostic models and ocean interior CO2 inversions is larger (0.18 PgCyr-1). The range of estimates from forward OBGCMs is also large (-0.19 to -0.72 PgCyr-1). Regarding inter-annual variability of air-sea CO2 fluxes, positive and negative anomalies are evident in the tropical Pacific during the cold and warm events of the El Nino Southern Oscillation in the estimates from pCO2sw diagnostic models and from OBGCMs. They are consistent in phase with the Southern Oscillation Index, but the peak-to-peak amplitudes tend to be higher in OBGCMs (0.40 ± 0.09 PgCyr-1) than in the diagnostic models (0.27 ± 0.07PgCyr-1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), including deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity in regions undergoing deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. All uncertainties are reported as ±1 sigma, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003-2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtCyr-1, ELUC 0.8 ± 0.5 GtCyr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtCyr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtCyr-1, and SLAND 2.6 ± 0.8 GtCyr-1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtCyr-1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued trend in these emissions; GATM was 5.2 ± 0.2 GtCyr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ±0.5 GtCyr-1, and assuming and ELUC of 0.9± 0.5 GtCyr-1 (based on 2001-2010 average), SLAND> was 2.5±0.9 GtCyr-1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003-2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52±0.10 ppm on average over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1 % (1.1-3.1 %) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 550 ± 60 GtC for 1870-2013, 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30 % from ELUC (160 ± 55 GtC). This paper is intended to provide a baseline to keep track of annual carbon budgets in the future. All data presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2013_v1.1). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are a number of hypotheses for the environmental controls on marine nitrogen fixation (NF). Most of these hypotheses have not been assessed against direct measurements on the global scale. In this study, we use ~500 depth-integrated field measurements of NF covering the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans to test whether the spatial variance of these measurements can be explained by the commonly hypothesized environmental controls, including measurement-based surface solar radiation, mixed layer depth, sea surface temperature, surface nitrate and phosphate concentrations, surface excess phosphate (P*), atmospheric dust deposition and surface wind speed, as well as minimum dissolved oxygen in upper 500m to identify possible subsurface denitrification zones. By conducting simple linear regression and stepwise multiple linear regression (MLR) analyses, solar radiation and/or sea surface temperature as well as subsurface dissolved oxygen are identified as the predictors explaining the most spatial variance in the observed NF data, while dust deposition and wind speed do not appear to influence the spatial patterns of NF on global scale. Our study suggests that marine NF is coupled to regional loss of fixed nitrogen induced by subsurface low oxygen concentration, with its magnitude constrained by solar radiation or temperature. By applying the MLR-derived equation, we estimate the global-integrated NF at 71 (error range 49–104) TgNyr-1 in the open ocean, acknowledging that it could be substantially higher as the 15N2-assimilation method used by most of the field samples underestimates NF. Our conclusion suggests that marine NF will increase in the future if subsurface nitrogen-losses increase as a consequence of developing deoxygenation with the global warming, a projection that will be modulated by other factors such as warming, elevated carbon dioxide, and changes in macro- and micro-nutrient distributions. More field NF samples in the Pacific and Indian Oceans, particularly in the oxygen minimum zones, are needed to reduce uncertainties in our conclusion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic and Arctic Oceans are critical components of the global carbon cycle. Here we quantify the net sea--air CO2 flux, for the first time, across different methodologies for consistent time and space scales for the Atlantic and Arctic basins. We present the long-term mean, seasonal cycle, interannual variability and trends in sea--air CO2 flux for the period 1990 to 2009, and assign an un- certainty to each. We use regional cuts from global observations and modeling products, specifically a pCO2-based CO2 flux climatology, flux estimates from the inversion of oceanic and atmospheric data, and results from six ocean biogeochemical models. Additionally, we use basin-wide flux estimates from surface ocean pCO2 observations based on two distinct methodologies. Our estimate of the con- temporary sea--air flux of CO2 (sum of anthropogenic and natural components) by the Atlantic between 40° S and 79° N is -0.49±0.05 Pg C yr-1, and by the Arctic it is -0.12±0.06 Pg C yr-1, leading to a combined sea--air flux of -0.61±0.06 Pg C yr-1 for the two decades (negative reflects ocean uptake). We do find broad agreement amongst methodologies with respect to the seasonal cycle in the subtropics of both hemispheres, but not elsewhere. Agreement with respect to detailed signals of interannual variability is poor, and correlations to the North Atlantic Oscillation are weaker in the North Atlantic and Arctic than in the equatorial region and southern subtropics. Linear trends for 1995 to 2009 indicate increased uptake and generally correspond between methodologies in the North Atlantic, but there is disagreement amongst methodologies in the equatorial region and southern subtropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Southern Ocean (44° S-75° S) plays a critical role in the global carbon cycle, yet remains one of the most poorly sampled ocean regions. Different approaches have been used to estimate sea-air CO2 fluxes in this region: synthesis of surface ocean observations, ocean biogeochemical models, and atmospheric and ocean inversions. As part of the RECCAP (REgional Carbon Cycle Assessment and Processes) project, we combine these different approaches to quantify and assess the magnitude and variability in Southern Ocean sea-air CO2 fluxes between 1990-2009. Using all models and inversions (26), the integrated median annual sea-air CO2 flux of -0.42±0.07 Pg C yr-1 for the 44° S-75° S region is consistent with the -0.27±0.13 Pg C yr-1 calculated using surface observations. The circumpolar region south of 58° S has a small net annual flux (model and inversion median: -0.04±0.07 Pg C yr-1 and observations: +0.04±0.02 Pg C yr-1), with most of the net annual flux located in the 44° S to 58° S circumpolar band (model and inversion median: -0.36±0.09 Pg C yr-1 and observations: -0.35±0.09 Pg C yr-1 ). Seasonally, in the 44° S-58° S region, the median of 5 ocean biogeochemical models captures the observed sea-air CO2 flux seasonal cycle, while the median of 11 atmospheric inversions shows little seasonal change in the net flux. South of 58° S, neither atmospheric inversions nor ocean biogeochemical models reproduce the phase and amplitude of the observed seasonal sea-air CO2 flux, particularly in the AustralWinter. Importantly, no individual atmospheric inversion or ocean bio-geochemical model is capable of reproducing both the observed annual mean uptake and the observed seasonal cycle. This raises concerns about projecting future changes in Southern Ocean CO2 fluxes. The median interannual variability from atmospheric inversions and ocean biogeochemical models is substantial in the Southern Ocean; up to 25% of the annual mean flux with 25% of this inter-annual variability attributed to the region south of 58° S. Trends in the net CO2 flux from the inversions and models are not statistically different from the expected increase of -0.05 Pg C yr-1 decade-1 due to increasing atmospheric CO2 concentrations. However, resolving long term trends is difficult due to the large interannual variability and short time frame (1990-2009) of this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We investigated the mechanisms of phytoplankton competition during the spring bloom, one of the most dramatic seasonal events in lower-trophic level ecosystems, in four state-of-the-art Plankton Functional Type (PFTs) models: PISCES, NEMURO, Plank- TOM5 and CCSM-BEC. In particular, we investigated the relative importance of different ecophysiological processes on the determination of the community structure, focusing both on the bottom-up and the top-down controls. The models reasonably reproduced the observed global distribution and seasonal variation of phytoplankton biomass. The fraction of diatoms with respect to the total phytoplankton biomass increases with the magnitude of the spring bloom in all models. However, the governing mechanisms differ between models, despite the fact that current PFT models represent ecophysiological processes using the same types of parameterizations. The increasing trend in the percentage of diatoms with increasing bloom magnitude is mainly caused by a stronger nutrient dependence of photosynthesis for diatoms compared to nanophytoplankton (bottom-up control). The difference in the maximum photosynthesis rate plays an important role in NEMURO and PlankTOM5 and determines the absolute values of the percentage of diatoms during the bloom. In CCSM-BEC, the light dependency of photosynthesis plays an important role in the North Atlantic and the Southern Ocean. The grazing pressure by zooplankton (top-down control), however, strongly contributes to the dominance of diatoms in PISCES and CCSM-BEC. The regional differences in the percentage of diatoms in PlankTOM5 are mainly determined by top-down control. These differences in the mechanisms suggest that the response of marine ecosystems to climate change could significantly differ among models, even if the present-day ecosystem is reproduced to a similar degree of confidence. For further understanding of plankton competition and for the prediction of future change in marine ecosystems, it is important to understand the relative differences in each physiological rate and life history rate in the bottom-up and the top-down controls between PFTs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change is expected to affect the ocean's biological productivity. The most comprehensive information available about the global distribution of contemporary ocean primary productivity is derived from satellite data. Large spatial patchiness and interannual to multidecadal variability in chlorophyll a concentration challenges efforts to distinguish a global, secular trend given satellite records which are limited in duration and continuity. The longest ocean color satellite record comes from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS), which failed in December 2010. The Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) ocean color sensors are beyond their originally planned operational lifetime. Successful retrieval of a quality signal from the current Visible Infrared Imager Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) instrument, or successful launch of the Ocean Land Colour Instrument (OLCI) in 2013 will hopefully extend the ocean color time series and increase the potential for detecting trends in ocean productivity in the future. Alternatively, a potential discontinuity in the time series of ocean chlorophyll a, introduced by a change of instrument without overlap and opportunity for cross-calibration, would make trend detection even more challenging. In this paper, we demonstrate that there are a few regions with statistically significant trends over the ten years of SeaWiFS data, but at a global scale the trend is not large enough to be distinguished from noise. We quantify the degree to which red noise (autocorrelation) especially challenges trend detection in these observational time series. We further demonstrate how discontinuities in the time series at various points would affect our ability to detect trends in ocean chlorophyll a. We highlight the importance of maintaining continuous, climate-quality satellite data records for climate-change detection and attribution studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimates of the anthropogenic global-integrated sea-air carbon dioxide (CO2) flux from 1990 to 2009, based on different models and measurements, range from -1.4 to -2.6 PgCyr-1 . The median values of anthropogenic CO2 for each method show better agreement and are: -1.9 for PgCyr-1 for numerical ocean general circulation hind cast models (OGCMs) with parameterized biogeochemistry; -2.1 PgCyr-1 for atmospheric inverse models; -1.9 PgCyr-1 for global atmospheric constraints based on O2 /N2 ratios for 1990-2000; and -2.4 PgCyr-1 for oceanic inverse models. An updated estimate of this anthropogenic CO2 flux based on a climatology of sea-air partial pressure of CO2 differences (ΔpCO2) (Takahashi et al., 2009) and a bulk formulation of gas transfer with wind speed for year 2000 is -2.0 PgCyr-1 . Using this ΔpCO2 climatology and empirical relationships of pCO2 with sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies (Park et al., 2010a), the interannual variability of the contemporary CO2 flux is estimated to be 0.20 PgCyr-1 (1σ) from 1990 through 2009. This is similar to the variability estimated by the OGCMs of 0.16 PgCyr-1 but smaller than the interannual variability from atmospheric inverse estimates of 0.40 PgCyr-1. The variability is largely driven by large-scale climate re-organizations. The decadal trends for different methods range from -0.13 (PgCyr-1) decade-1 to -0.50 (PgCyr-1) decade-1. The OGCMs and the data based sea-air CO2 flux estimates show smaller uptakes and appreciably smaller decadal trends than estimates based on changes in carbon inventory suggesting that methods capable of resolving shorter timescales are showing a slowing of the rate of ocean CO2 uptake. It is not clear if this large difference in trend is a methodological issue or a real natural feedback. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Atlantic and Arctic oceans are critical components of the global carbon cycle. Here we quantify the net sea-air CO2 flux, for the first time, across different methodologies for consistent time and space scales, for the Atlantic and Arctic basins. We present the long-term mean, seasonal cycle, interannual variability and trends in sea-air CO2 flux for the period 1990 to 2009, and assign an uncertainty to each. We use regional cuts from global observations and modelling products, specifically a pCO2- based CO2 flux climatology, flux estimates from the inversion of oceanic and atmospheric data, and results from six ocean biogeochemical models. Additionally, we use basin-wide flux estimates from surface ocean pCO2 observations based on two distinct methodologies. Our best estimate of the contemporary sea-to-air flux of CO2 (sum of anthropogenic and natural components) by the Atlantic between 40° S and 79° N is -0.49±0.11 PgCyr -1 and by the Arctic is -0.12±0.06 PgCyr -1 , leading to a combined sea-to-air flux of -0.61±0.12 PgCyr -1 for the two decades (negative reflects ocean uptake). We do find broad agreement amongst methodologies with respect to the seasonal cycle in the subtropics of both hemispheres, but not elsewhere. Agreement with respect to detailed signals of interannual variability is poor; and correlations to the North Atlantic Oscillation are weaker in the North Atlantic and Arctic than in the equatorial region and South Subtropics. Linear trends for 1995 to 2009 indicate increased uptake and generally correspond between methodologies in the North Atlantic, but there is disagreement amongst methodologies in the equatorial region and South Subtropics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Due to seasonal upwelling, the upper ocean waters of the California Current System (CCS) have a naturally low pH and aragonite saturation state (Ωarag), making this region particularly prone to the effects of ocean acidification. Here, we use the Regional Oceanic Modeling System (ROMS) to conduct preindustrial and transient (1995-2050) simulations of ocean biogeochemistry in the CCS. The transient simulations were forced with increasing atmospheric pCO2 as projected by the NCAR CSM 1.4 model run under either the IPCC SRES A2 or B1 scenarios. Using ROMS, we investigate the timing of transition decades during which pH and Ωarag depart from their modeled preindustrial (1750) and present-day (2011) variability envelopes. We report these transition decades by noting the midpoint of the ten-year transition periods. In addition, we also analyze the timing of near permanent aragonite undersaturation in the upper 100m of the water column. Our results show that an interplay of physical and biogeochemical processes create large seasonal variability in pH (∼0.14) and Ωarag (∼0.2). Despite this large variability, we find that present-day pH and Ωarag have already moved out of their preindustrial variability envelopes due to the rapidly increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO2. The simulations following the A2 emissions scenario suggest that nearshore surface pH of the northern and central CCS will move out of their present-day variability envelopes by 2045 and 2037, respectively. However, surface Ωarag of the northern and central CCS subregions are projected to depart from their present-day variability envelopes sooner, by 2030 and 2035, respectively. By 2025, the aragonite saturation horizon of the central CCS is projected to shoal into the upper 75m for the duration of the annual cycle, causing near permanent undersaturation in subsurface waters. Overall, our study shows that the CCS joins the Arctic and Southern Oceans as one of only a few known ocean regions presently approaching this dual threshold of undersaturation with respect to aragonite and a departure from its variability envelope. In these regions, organisms may be forced to rapidly adjust to conditions that are both inherently chemically challenging and also substantially different from prior conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The global ocean is a significant sink for anthropogenic carbon (Cant), absorbing roughly a third of human CO2 emitted over the industrial period. Robust estimates of the magnitude and variability of the storage and distribution of Cant in the ocean are therefore important for understanding the human impact on climate. In this synthesis 5 we review observational and model-based estimates of the storage and transport of Cant in the ocean. We pay particular attention to the uncertainties and potential biases inherent in different inference schemes. On a global scale, three data based estimates of the distribution and inventory of Cant are now available. While the inventories are found to agree within their uncertainty, there are considerable differences in the spatial distribution. We also present a review of the progress made in the application of inverse and data-assimilation techniques which combine ocean interior estimates of Cant with numerical ocean circulation models. Such methods are especially useful for estimating the air-sea flux and interior transport of Cant, quantities that are otherwise difficult to observe directly. However, the results are found to be highly dependent on 15 modeled circulation, with the spread due to different ocean models at least as large as that from the different observational methods used to estimate Cant. Our review also highlights the importance of repeat measurements of hydrographic and biogeochemical parameters to estimate the storage of Cant on decadal timescales in the presence of the variability in circulation that is neglected by other approaches. Data-based Cant 20 estimates provide important constraints on ocean forward models, which exhibit both broad similarities and regional errors relative to the observational fields. A compilation of inventories of Cant gives us a "best" estimate of the global ocean inventory of anthropogenic carbon in 2010 of 155 PgC with an uncertainty of ±20%. This estimate includes a broad range of values suggesting that a combination of approaches is necessary in order to achieve a robust quantification of the ocean sink of anthropogenic CO2. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses the importance of carbon dioxide (CO2) emission measurement for climatic purposes. It mentions that redistribution of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, water and land is a significant part not only carbon cycle but also in climatic change projection and providing of policy support. It states that carbon dioxide budget has increased it rate each year in which 3 percent more carbon dioxide has accumulated in 2011 as compared to 2010.

The article offers information on the development of a database of diazotrophs in the global ocean. It states that the database provide information on abundances, biomass, and nitrogen fixation rates of diazotrophs. It mentions that the database could be used for the spatial and temporal studies on distribution and variation of dinitrogen (N2) fixation and for validation of biogeochemical models.

We present three years of Apparent Oxygen Utilization Rates (AOUR) estimated from oxygen and tracer data collected over the ocean thermocline at monthly resolution between 2003 and 2006 at the Bermuda Atlantic Time-series Study (BATS) site. We estimate water ages by calculating a transit time distribution from tritium and helium-3 data. The vertically integrated AOUR over the upper 500 m, which is a regional estimate of export, during the three years is 3.1 ± 0.5 mol O2 m-2 yr-1. This is comparable to previous AOUR-based estimates of export production at the BATS site but is several times larger than export estimates derived from sediment traps or 234Th fluxes. We compare AOUR determined in this study to AOUR measured in the 1980s and show AOUR is significantly greater today than decades earlier because of changes in AOU, rather than changes in ventilation rates. The changes in AOU may be a methodological artefact associated with problems with early oxygen measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Coupled-carbon-climate simulations are an essential tool for predicting the impact of human activity onto the climate and biogeochemistry. Here we incorporate prognostic desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into the CCSM3.1 coupled carbon-climate model and explore the resulting interactions with climate and biogeochemical dynamics through a series of transient anthropogenic simulations (20th and 21st centuries) and sensitivity studies. The inclusion of prognostic aerosols into this model has a small net global cooling effect on climate but does not significantly impact the globally averaged carbon cycle; we argue that this is likely to be because the CCSM3.1 model has a small climate feedback onto the carbon cycle. We propose a mechanism for including desert dust and anthropogenic aerosols into a simple carbon-climate feedback analysis to explain the results of our and previous studies. Inclusion of aerosols has statistically significant impacts on regional climate and biogeochemistry, in particular through the effects on the ocean nitrogen cycle and primary productivity of altered iron inputs from desert dust deposition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We quantify how well column-integrated CO2 measurements from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory (OCO) should be able to constrain surface CO2 fluxes, given the presence of various error sources. We use variational data assimilation to optimize weekly fluxes at a 2°×5° resolution (lat/lon) using simulated data averaged across each model grid box overflight (typically every ∼33 s). Grid-scale simulations of this sort have been carried out before for OCO using simplified assumptions for the measurement error. Here, we more accurately describe the OCO measurements in two ways. First, we use new estimates of the single-sounding retrieval uncertainty and averaging kernel, both computed as a function of surface type, solar zenith angle, aerosol optical depth, and pointing mode (nadir vs. glint). Second, we collapse the information content of all valid retrievals from each grid box crossing into an equivalent multi-sounding measurement uncertainty, factoring in both time/space error correlations and data rejection due to clouds and thick aerosols. Finally, we examine the impact of three types of systematic errors: measurement biases due to aerosols, transport errors, and mistuning errors caused by assuming incorrect statistics. When only random measurement errors are considered, both nadir- and glint-mode data give error reductions over the land of ∼45% for the weekly fluxes, and ∼65% for seasonal fluxes. Systematic errors reduce both the magnitude and spatial extent of these improvements by about a factor of two, however. Improvements nearly as large are achieved over the ocean using glint-mode data, but are degraded even more by the systematic errors. Our ability to identify and remove systematic errors in both the column retrievals and atmospheric assimilations will thus be critical for maximizing the usefulness of the OCO data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global warming is predicted to alter the ocean's biological productivity. But how will we recognise the impacts of climate change on ocean productivity? The most comprehensive information available on the global distribution of ocean productivity comes from satellite ocean colour data. Now that over ten years of SeaWiFS data have accumulated, can we begin to detect and attribute global warming trends in productivity? Here we compare recent trends in SeaWiFS data to longer-term records from three biogeo-chemical models (GFDL, IPSL and NCAR). We find that detection of real trends in the satellite data is confounded by the relatively short time series and large interannual and decadal variability in productivity. Thus, recent observed changes in chlorophyll, primary production and the size of the oligotrophic gyres cannot be unequivocally attributed to the impact of global warming. Instead, our analyses suggest that a time series of ~40 yr length is needed to distinguish a global warming trend from natural variability. Analysis of modelled chlorophyll and primary production from 2001-2100 suggests that, on average, the global warming trend will not be unambiguously separable from decadal variability until ~2055. Because the magnitude of natural variability in chlorophyll and primary production is larger than, or similar to, the global warming trend, a consistent, decades-long data record must be established if the impact of climate change on ocean productivity is to be definitively detected. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Changes in marine net primary productivity and export of particulate organic carbon are projected over the 21st century with three global coupled carbon cycle-climate models. These include representations of marine ecosystems and the carbon cycle of different structure and complexity. All three models show a decrease in global mean marine productivity and export production between 7 and 20% by 2100 relative to preindustrial conditions, for the SRES A2 emission scenario. Two different regimes for productivity changes are consistently identified in all three models. The first chain of mechanisms is dominant in the low- and mid-latitude ocean and in the North Atlantic: reduced input of macro-nutrients into the euphotic zone related to enhanced stratification, reduced mixed layer depth, and slowed circulation causes a decrease in macro-nutrient concentrations and in productivity and export of particulate organic carbon. The second regime is projected for parts of the Southern Ocean: an alleviation of light and/or temperature limitation leads to an increase in primary and export production as productivity 15 is fueled by a sustained nutrient input. A region of disagreement among the models is the Arctic, where two models project an increase in productivity while one model projects a decrease. Projected changes in seasonal and interannual variability are modest in most regions. Regional model skill metrics are proposed to generate multimodel mean fields that show an improved skill in representing observations compared 20 to a simple multi-model average. Model results are compared to recent productivity projections with three different algorithms, usually applied to infer primary production from satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ocean acidification from the uptake of anthropogenic carbon is simulated for the industrial period and IPCC SRES emission scenarios A2 and B1 with a global coupled carbon cycle-climate model. Earlier studies identified seawater saturation state with respect to aragonite, a mineral phase of calcium carbonate, as a key variable governing impacts on corals and other shell-forming organisms. Globally in the A2 scenario, water saturated by more than 300%, considered suitable for coral growth, vanishes by 2070 AD (CO2≈630 ppm), and the ocean volume fraction occupied by saturated water decreases from 42% to 25% over this century. The largest simulated pH changes worldwide occur in Arctic surface waters, where hydrogen ion concentration increases by up to 185%. Projected climate change amplifies the decrease in Arctic surface mean saturation and pH by more than 20%, mainly due to freshening and increased carbon uptake in response to sea ice retreat. Modeled saturation compares well with observation-based estimates along an Arctic transect and simulated changes have been corrected for remaining model-data differences in this region. Aragonite under saturation in Arctic surface waters is projected to occur locally soon and to become more widespread as atmospheric CO2 continues to grow. The results imply that surface waters in the Arctic Ocean will become corrosive to aragonite, with potentially large implications for the marine ecosystem, if anthropogenic carbon emission are not reduced and atmospheric CO2 not kept below 450 ppm. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Phytoplankton photosynthesis links global ocean biology and climate-driven fluctuations in the physical environment. These interactions are largely expressed through changes in phytoplankton physiology, but physiological status has proven extremely challenging to characterize globally. Phytoplankton fluorescence does provide a rich source of physiological information long exploited in laboratory and field studies, and is now observed from space. Here we use satellite-based fluorescence measurements to evaluate light-absorption and energy-dissipation processes influencing phytoplankton light use efficiency and demonstrate its utility as a global physiological indicator of iron-limited growth conditions. This new tool provides a path for monitoring climate-phytoplankton physiology interactions, improving descriptions of light use efficiency in ocean productivity models, evaluating nutrient-stress predictions in ocean ecosystem models, and appraising phytoplankton responses to natural iron enrichments or purposeful iron fertilizations activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A three dimensional, time-evolving field of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~O2/N2+CO2) was estimated using surface O2, N2 and CO2 fluxes from the WHOI ocean ecosystem model to force the MATCH atmospheric transport model. Land and fossil carbon fluxes were also run in MATCH and translated into O2 tracers using assumed O2:CO2 stoichiometries. The modeled seasonal cycles in APO agree well with the observed cycles at 13 global monitoring stations, with agreement helped by including oceanic CO2 in the APO calculation. The modeled latitudinal gradient in APO is strongly influenced by seasonal rectifier effects in atmospheric transport. An analysis of the APO-vs.-CO2 mass-balance method for partitioning land and ocean carbon sinks was performed in the controlled context of the MATCH simulation, in which the true surface carbon and oxygen fluxes were known exactly. This analysis suggests uncertainty of up to ±0.2 PgC in the inferred sinks due to variability associated with sparse atmospheric sampling. It also shows that interannual variability in oceanic O2 fluxes can cause large errors in the sink partitioning when the method is applied over short timescales. However, when decadal or longer averages are used, the variability in the oceanic O2 flux is relatively small, allowing carbon sinks to be partitioned to within a standard deviation of 0.1 Pg C/yr of the true values, provided one has an accurate estimate of longterm mean O2 outgassing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using numerical simulations, we quantify the impact of changes in the ocean's biological pump on the air-sea balance of CO2 by fertilizing a small surface patch in the high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll region of the eastern tropical Pacific with iron. Decade-long fertilization experiments are conducted in a basin-scale, eddy-permitting coupled physical/ biogeochemical/ecological model. In contrast to previous studies, we find that most of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) removed from the euphotic zone by the enhanced biological export is replaced by uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. Atmospheric uptake efficiencies, the ratio of the perturbation in air-sea CO2 flux to the perturbation in export flux across 100 m, integrated over 10 years, are 0.75 to 0.93 in our patch size-scale experiments. The atmospheric uptake efficiency is insensitive to the duration of the experiment. The primary factor controlling the atmospheric uptake efficiency is the vertical distribution of the enhanced biological production and export. Iron fertilization at the surface tends to induce production anomalies primarily near the surface, leading to high efficiencies. In contrast, mechanisms that induce deep production anomalies (e.g. altered light availability) tend to have a low uptake efficiency, since most of the removed DIC is replaced by lateral and vertical transport and mixing. Despite high atmospheric uptake efficiencies, patchscale iron fertilization of the ocean's biological pump tends to remove little CO2 from the atmosphere over the decadal timescale considered here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Concurrent changes in ocean chemical and physical properties influence phytoplankton dynamics via alterations in carbonate chemistry, nutrient and trace metal inventories and upper ocean light environment. Using a fully coupled, global carbon-climate model (Climate System Model 1.4-carbon), we quantify anthropogenic climate change relative to the background natural interannual variability for the Southern Ocean over the period 2000 and 2100. Model results are interpreted using our understanding of the environmental control of phytoplankton growth rates - leading to two major findings. Firstly, comparison with results from phytoplankton perturbation experiments, in which environmental properties have been altered for key species (e.g., bloom formers), indicates that the predicted rates of change in oceanic properties over the next few decades are too subtle to be represented experimentally at present. Secondly, the rate of secular climate change will not exceed background natural variability, on seasonal to interannual time-scales, for at least several decades - which may not provide the prevailing conditions of change, i.e. constancy, needed for phytoplankton adaptation. Taken together, the relatively subtle environmental changes, due to climate change, may result in adaptation by resident phytoplankton, but not for several decades due to the confounding effects of climate variability. This presents major challenges for the detection and attribution of climate change effects on Southern Ocean phytoplankton. We advocate the development of multi-faceted tests/metrics that will reflect the relative plasticity of different phytoplankton functional groups and/or species to respond to changing ocean conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Using numerical simulations, we quantify the impact of changes in the ocean's biological pump on the air-sea balance of CO2 by fertilizing a small surface patch in the high-nutrient, low-chlorophyll region of the eastern tropical Pacific with iron. Decade-long fertilization experiments are conducted in a basin-scale, eddy-permitting coupled physical biogeochemical ecological model. In contrast to previous studies, we find that most of the dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) removed from the euphotic zone by the enhanced biological export is replaced by uptake of CO2 from the atmosphere. Atmospheric uptake efficiencies, the ratio of the perturbation in air-sea CO2 flux to the perturbation in export flux across 100 m, are 0.75 to 0.93 in our patch size-scale experiments. The atmospheric uptake efficiency is insensitive to the duration of the experiment. The primary factor controlling the atmospheric uptake efficiency is the vertical distribution of the enhanced biological production. Iron fertilization at the surface tends to induce production anomalies primarily near the surface, leading to high efficiencies. In contrast, mechanisms that induce deep production anomalies (e.g. altered light availability) tend to have a low uptake efficiency, since most of the removed DIC is replaced by lateral and vertical transport and mixing. Despite high atmospheric uptake efficiencies, patch-scale iron fertilization of the ocean's biological pump tends to remove little CO2 from the atmosphere over the decadal timescale considered here. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A three dimensional, time-evolving field of atmospheric potential oxygen (APO ~ O2/N2 + CO2) is estimated using surface O2, N2 and CO2 fluxes from the WHOI ocean ecosystem model to force the MATCH atmospheric transport model. Land and fossil carbon fluxes are also run in MATCH and translated into O2 tracers using assumed O2:CO2 stoichiometries. The model seasonal cycles in APO agree well with the observed cycles at 13 global monitoring stations, with agreement helped by the inclusion of oceanic CO2 in the APO calculation. The model latitudinal gradient in APO is strongly influenced by seasonal rectifier effects in atmospheric transport, which appear at least partly unrealistic based on comparison to observations. An analysis of the APO vs. CO2 method for partitioning land and ocean carbon sinks is performed in the controlled context of the MATCH simulation, in which the true surface carbon and oxygen fluxes are known exactly. This analysis suggests uncertainty ranging up to ±0.2 PgC in the inferred sinks due to transport-induced variability. It also shows that interannual variability in oceanic O2 fluxes can cause increasingly large error in the 15 sink partitioning when the method is applied over increasingly short timescales. However, when decadal or longer averages are used, the variability in the oceanic O2 flux is relatively small, allowing carbon sinks to be partitioned to within a standard deviation of 0.1 Pg C/yr of the true values, provided one has an accurate estimate of long-term mean O2 outgassing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use an inverse method to estimate the global-scale pattern of the air-sea flux of natural CO2, i.e., the component of the CO2 flux due to the natural carbon cycle that already existed in preindustrial times, on the basis of ocean interior observations of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC) and other tracers, from which we estimate ΔCgasex, i.e., the component of the observed DIC that is due to the gas exchange of natural CO2. We employ a suite of 10 different Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs) to quantify the error arising from uncertainties in the modeled transport required to link the interior ocean observations to the surface fluxes. The results from the contributing OGCMs are weighted using a model skill score based on a comparison of each model's simulated natural radiocarbon with observations. We find a pattern of air-sea flux of natural CO2 characterized by outgassing in the Southern Ocean between 44°S and 59°S, vigorous uptake at midlatitudes of both hemispheres, and strong outgassing in the tropics. In the Northern Hemisphere and the tropics, the inverse estimates generally agree closely with the natural CO2 flux results from forward simulations of coupled OGCM-biogeochemistry models undertaken as part of the second phase of the Ocean Carbon Model Intercomparison Project (OCMIP-2). The OCMIP-2 simulations find far less air-sea exchange than the inversion south of 20°S, but more recent forward OGCM studies are in better agreement with the inverse estimates in the Southern Hemisphere. The strong source and sink pattern south of 20°S was not apparent in an earlier inversion study, because the choice of region boundaries led to a partial cancellation of the sources and sinks. We show that the inversely estimated flux pattern is clearly traceable to gradients in the observed ΔCgasex, and that it is relatively insensitive to the choice of OGCM or potential biases in ΔCgasex. Our inverse estimates imply a southward interhemispheric transport of 0.31 ± 0.02 Pg C yr-1, most of which occurs in the Atlantic. This is considerably smaller than the 1 Pg C yr-1 of Northern Hemisphere uptake that has been inferred from atmospheric CO2 observations during the 1980s and 1990s, which supports the hypothesis of a Northern Hemisphere terrestrial sink. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Eleven coupled climate–carbon cycle models used a common protocol to study the coupling between climate change and the carbon cycle. The models were forced by historical emissions and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) A2 anthropogenic emissions of CO2 for the 1850–2100 time period. For each model, two simulations were performed in order to isolate the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon cycle, and therefore the climate feedback on the atmospheric CO2 concentration growth rate. There was unanimous agreement among the models that future climate change will reduce the efficiency of the earth system to absorb the anthropogenic carbon perturbation. A larger fraction of anthropogenic CO2 will stay airborne if climate change is accounted for. By the end of the twenty-first century, this additional CO2 varied between 20 and 200 ppm for the two extreme models, the majority of the models lying between 50 and 100 ppm. The higher CO2 levels led to an additional climate warming ranging between 0.1° and 1.5°C. All models simulated a negative sensitivity for both the land and the ocean carbon cycle to future climate. However, there was still a large uncertainty on the magnitude of these sensitivities. Eight models attributed most of the changes to the land, while three attributed it to the ocean. Also, a majority of the models located the reduction of land carbon uptake in the Tropics. However, the attribution of the land sensitivity to changes in net primary productivity versus changes in respiration is still subject to debate; no consensus emerged among the models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[1] Regional air-sea fluxes of anthropogenic CO2 are estimated using a Green's function inversion method that combines data-based estimates of anthropogenic CO2 in the ocean with information about ocean transport and mixing from a suite of Ocean General Circulation Models (OGCMs). In order to quantify the uncertainty associated with the estimated fluxes owing to modeled transport and errors in the data, we employ 10 OGCMs and three scenarios representing biases in the data-based anthropogenic CO2 estimates. On the basis of the prescribed anthropogenic CO2 storage, we find a global uptake of 2.2 ± 0.25 Pg C yr-1, scaled to 1995. This error estimate represents the standard deviation of the models weighted by a CFC-based model skill score, which reduces the error range and emphasizes those models that have been shown to reproduce observed tracer concentrations most accurately. The greatest anthropogenic CO2 uptake occurs in the Southern Ocean and in the tropics. The flux estimates imply vigorous northward transport in the Southern Hemisphere, northward cross-equatorial transport, and equatorward transport at high northern latitudes. Compared with forward simulations, we find substantially more uptake in the Southern Ocean, less uptake in the Pacific Ocean, and less global uptake. The large-scale spatial pattern of the estimated flux is generally insensitive to possible biases in the data and the models employed. However, the global uptake scales approximately linearly with changes in the global anthropogenic CO2 inventory. Considerable uncertainties remain in some regions, particularly the Southern Ocean. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Continuous measurements of atmospheric CO2 over the continents are potentially powerful tools for understanding regional carbon budgets, but our limited understanding of the processes driving the high-frequency variability in these measurements makes interpretation difficult. In this paper we examine the synoptic variability (∼days) of surface CO2 concentrations in four continental records from Europe and North America. Three source functions corresponding to the ocean, land biosphere and anthropogenic sources and sinks for CO2 have been implemented in a regional atmospheric transport model. In previous carbon studies, monthly biospheric fluxes have typically been used, but here high spatiotemporal (daily, ) resolution biospheric fluxes are obtained from the NCAR Land Surface Model ( lsm). A high-pass filter is used to remove atmospheric variability on time scales longer than 2 months, and the resulting simulated concentration fields replicates reasonably well the magnitude and seasonality of the synoptic variability across the four observation sites. The phasing of many of the individual events are also captured, indicating that the physical and biogeochemical dynamics driving the model variability likely resemble those in nature. The observations and model results show pronounced summer maxima in the synoptic CO2 concentration variability at the two stations located in North America, while a slightly different seasonality with high variability throughout fall and winter is observed at the European sites. The mechanisms driving these patterns are studied and discussed based on correlations between the concentration anomalies and the driving atmospheric physical variables and surfaces fluxes in the simulations. During the summer, the synoptic variability over the continents has a significant contribution from variations in regional net primary production, which in turn is modulated by regional, synoptic temperature variability. In winter the synoptic variability is partitioned about equally between biospheric and anthropogenic CO2 and is mainly driven by local vertical mixing and synoptic variations in atmospheric circulation working on the large-scale atmospheric gradient. This study highlights the importance for future modeling work of improved high temporal resolution (at least daily) surface biosphere, oceanic and anthropogenic flux estimates as well as high vertical and horizontal spatiotemporal resolution of the driving meteorology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

More than 50 years ago, Harald Sverdrup developed a simple model for the necessary conditions leading to the spring bloom of phytoplankton. Although this model has been used extensively across a variety of aquatic ecosystems, its application requires knowledge of community compensation irradiance (l[sub c]), the light level where photosynthetic and ecosystem community loss processes balance. However, reported l[sub c] values have varied by an order of magnitude. Here, l[sub c] estimates are determined using satellite and hydrographic data sets consistent with the assumptions in Sverdrup's 1953 critical depth hypothesis. Retrieved values of l[sub c] are approximately uniform throughout much of the North Atlantic with a mean value of 1.3 mol photons meter[sup −2] day[sup −1]. These community-based l[sub c] determinations are roughly twice typical values found for phytoplankton alone indicating that phytoplankton account for approximately one-half of community ecosystem losses. This work also suggests that important aspects of heterotrophic community dynamics can be assessed using satellite observations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precision requirements are determined for space-based column-averaged CO2 dry air mole fraction image data. These requirements result from an assessment of spatial and temporal gradients in image the relationship between image precision and surface CO2 flux uncertainties inferred from inversions of the image data, and the effects of image biases on the fidelity of CO2 flux inversions. Observational system simulation experiments and synthesis inversion modeling demonstrate that the Orbiting Carbon Observatory mission design and sampling strategy provide the means to achieve these image data precision requirements., Engineering and Applied Sciences