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Homozygosity for the p.C282Y substitution in the HFE protein encoded by the hemochromatosis gene on chromosome 6p (HFE) is a common genetic trait that increases susceptibility to iron overload. McLaren et al. used bivariate mixture modeling to analyze the joint population distribution of transferrin saturation (TS) and serum ferritin concentration (SF) measured for participants in the Hemochromatosis and Iron Overload Screening (HEIRS) Study. They identified four components (C1, C2, C3, and C4) with successively increasing means for TS and SF. They demonstrated that bivariate mixture modeling in TS and SF reflect the genetic locus of HFE and may isolate p.C282Y homozygotes from the general population. In the current study we used data from the another large cohort, the Australian HealthIron study of genetic and environmental modifiers of hereditary hemochromatosis, to validate the component analysis approach, to examine stability of component proportions over time and to determine if TS and SF values from an individual move between components at baseline and follow-up. Because sampling fractions from each p.C282Y / p.H63D genotype stratum are not equal, we used frequency weights based on the inverse of the probability of selection for invitation to participate. In the weighted female analytic cohorts, C4 captured most of C282Y homozygotes, and C2 was the largest component. We identified four components from the weighted male analytic cohort and C4 captured most of p.C282Y homozygotes. The bivariate mixture modeling approach suggested that the model is transferable from one white population to another, although estimated means within components may differ.

ObjectiveTo test the hypothesis that more frequent consumption of sugar-sweetened soft drinks would be associated with increased risk of obesity-related cancers. Associations for artificially sweetened soft drinks were assessed for comparison.DesignProspective cohort study with cancers identified by linkage to cancer registries. At baseline, participants completed a 121-item FFQ including separate questions about the number of times in the past year they had consumed sugar-sweetened or artificially sweetened soft drinks. Anthropometric measurements, including waist circumference, were taken and questions about smoking, leisure-time physical activity and intake of alcoholic beverages were completed.SettingThe Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) is a prospective cohort study which recruited 41 514 men and women aged 40–69 years between 1990 and 1994. A second wave of data collection occurred in 2003–2007.SubjectsData for 35 593 participants who developed 3283 incident obesity-related cancers were included in the main analysis.ResultsIncreasing frequency of consumption of both sugar-sweetened and artificially sweetened soft drinks was associated with greater waist circumference at baseline. For sugar-sweetened soft drinks, the hazard ratio (HR) for obesity-related cancers increased as frequency of consumption increased (HR for consumption >1/dv. P-trend=0·007). For artificially sweetened soft drinks, the HR for obesity-related cancers was not associated with consumption (HR for consumption >1/dv. P-trend=0·61).ConclusionsOur results add to the justification to minimise intake of sugar-sweetened soft drinks.

We read with interest the work by Gundert and colleagues, which describes a new prognostic classifier for non-metastatic colorectal cancer (CRC), ProMCol, derived from DNA methylation levels at 20 CpG sites in colorectal tumour tissue.1 Here, we tested the ProMCol classifier on an independent cohort of 526 non-metastatic CRC tumours from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). The MCCS is a prospective cohort study of 41 513 healthy adult volunteers recruited between 1990 and 1994.2 By 31 December 2009, 1046 participants had a first histopathological diagnosis of invasive adenocarcinoma of the colon or rectum identified through the Victorian Cancer Registry (VCR) following the baseline study visit (a total of 1101 CRCs). Characterisation of this CRC-affected cohort is described in Buchanan et al .3 Vital status was ascertained through the VCR and the National Death Index. From all 1046 participants with a CRC diagnosis, we excluded 26 tumours with the tumour site listed as overlapping lesions of rectum, anus and anal canal (International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems 10th Revision code C21.8) or had unknown site, we removed 228 tumours without available formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tissue specimens, a further 142 tumours were unavailable for DNA methylation testing, and finally we removed 124 metastatic cases (stage 4 American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC)) and tumours with unknown stages, leaving a total of 526 CRC tumours …

There is increasing evidence of a relationship between blood DNA methylation and body mass index (BMI). We aimed to assess associations of BMI with individual methylation measures (CpGs) through a cross-sectional genome-wide DNA methylation association study and a longitudinal analysis of repeated measurements over time. Using the Illumina Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip, DNA methylation measures were determined in baseline peripheral blood samples from 5361 adults recruited to the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) and selected for nested case–control studies, 2586 because they were subsequently diagnosed with cancer (cases) and 2775 as controls. For a subset of 1088 controls, these measures were repeated using blood samples collected at wave 2 follow-up, a median of 11 years later; weight was measured at both time points. Associations between BMI and blood DNA methylation were assessed using linear mixed-effects regression models adjusted for batch effects and potential confounders. These were applied to cases and controls separately, with results combined through fixed-effects meta-analysis. Cross-sectional analysis identified 310 CpGs associated with BMI with P

Aims Cancers of female breast, upper aero-digestive tract (UADT) (oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, oesophagus) and colorectum are causally related to alcohol consumption. Although alcohol consumption is likely to vary during life, the few studies that have explicitly measured lifetime consumption or intake over time have not been summarised. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis. Methods Studies were identified by searching the Medline, CINAHL (Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature) and Scopus databases through January 2015 using broad search criteria. Studies reporting relative risks (RR) for quantitatively defined categories of alcohol consumption over time for breast, UADT or colorectal cancer were eligible. A two-stage random-effects meta-analysis was used to estimate a dose–response relationship between alcohol intake and each cancer site. RRs were also calculated for the highest relative to the lowest intake category. Results Sixteen articles for breast, 16 for UADT and 7 for colorectal cancer met the eligibility criteria. We observed a weak non-linear dose–response relationship for breast cancer and positive linear dose–response relationships for UADT and colorectal cancer. The pooled RRs were 1.28 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.07, 1.52) for breast, 2.83 (95% CI: 1.73, 4.62) for UADT, 4.84 (95% CI: 2.51, 9.32) for oral cavity and pharynx, 2.25 (95% CI: 1.49, 3.42) for larynx, 6.71 (95% CI: 4.21, 10.70) for oesophageal and 1.49 (95% CI: 1.27, 1.74) for colorectal cancer. Conclusion Our findings confirm dose-dependent associations between long-term alcohol intake and breast, UADT and colorectal cancer.

Background For human papillomavirus (HPV) DNA detection, specimen collection and transportation using a dry swab without transport medium has advantages, in various situations, over liquid media. Objective In this pilot study we evaluated whether a dry cervical sample taken with a flocked swab (dry sample) is a valid alternative for HPV DNA testing compared with the standard practice of a wet sample taken with a cyto-broom placed directly into liquid media (wet sample). Study design Women attending the dysplasia clinic at the Royal Women’s Hospital, Melbourne Australia between November 2013 and February 2014 were enrolled. During colposcopic examination, a practitioner collected wet and dry cervical samples, with the order of collection randomised. In the laboratory both samples were left for a week before being tested for 14 high-risk HPV types using the Roche Cobas 4800 test. Results Overall, 209 had valid HPV results from both samples. The observed agreement for HPV detection between wet and dry samples was 92.8% and kappa was 0.85 (95% confidence interval (95% CI): 0.78–0.92). There was no statistical difference in the percent HPV positive for each sample (p = 0.30). HPV testing of the dry sample had an 88.5% (95% CI: 79.9–94.3%) sensitivity for HPV detected using the wet specimen. For the HPV results categorized hierarchically, there was 92.8% overall agreement and a kappa of 0.87 (95% CI = 0.80–0.93) for the paired results. Conclusion Using dry flocked swabs to collect cervical cells is a valid alternative to collecting wet samples for HPV DNA testing using a PCR based test.

Observational studies have suggested that 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) levels are associated with inflammatory markers. Most trials reporting significant associations between vitamin D intake and inflammatory markers used specific patient groups. Thus, we aimed to determine the effect of supplementary vitamin D using secondary data from a population-based, randomised, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial (Pilot D-Health trial 2010/0423). Participants were 60- to 84-year-old residents of one of the four eastern states of Australia. They were randomly selected from the electoral roll and were randomised to one of three trial arms: placebo (n 214), 750 μg (n 215) or 1500 μg (n 215) vitamin D3, each taken once per month for 12 months. Post-intervention blood samples for the analysis of C-reactive protein (CRP), IL-6, IL-10, leptin and adiponectin levels were available for 613 participants. Associations between intervention group and biomarker levels were evaluated using quantile regression. There were no statistically significant differences in distributions of CRP, leptin, adiponectin, leptin:adiponectin ratio or IL-10 levels between the placebo group and either supplemented group. The 75th percentile IL-6 level was 2·8 pg/ml higher (95 % CI 0·4, 5·8 pg/ml) in the 1500 μg group than in the placebo group (75th percentiles:11·0 v. 8·2 pg/ml), with a somewhat smaller, non-significant difference in 75th percentiles between the 750 μg and placebo groups. Despite large differences in serum 25(OH)D levels between the three groups after 12 months of supplementation, we found little evidence of an effect of vitamin D supplementation on cytokine or adipokine levels, with the possible exception of IL-6.

The aim of this population-based, prospective cohort study was to investigate long-term associations between dietary calcium intake and fractures, non-fatal cardiovascular disease (CVD), and death from all causes. Participants were from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, which was established in 1990 to 1994. A total of 41,514 men and women (∼99% aged 40 to 69 years at baseline) were followed up for a mean (SD) of 12 (1.5) years. Primary outcome measures were time to death from all causes (n = 2855), CVD-related deaths (n = 557), cerebrovascular disease-related deaths (n = 139), incident non-fatal CVD (n = 1827), incident stroke events (n = 537), and incident fractures (n = 788). A total of 12,097 participants (aged ≥50 years) were eligible for fracture analysis and 34,468 for non-fatal CVD and mortality analyses. Mortality was ascertained by record linkage to registries. Fractures and CVD were ascertained from interview ∼13 years after baseline. Quartiles of baseline energy-adjusted calcium intake from food were estimated using a food-frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HR) and odds ratios (OR) were calculated for quartiles of dietary calcium intake. Highest and lowest quartiles of energy-adjusted dietary calcium intakes represented unadjusted means (SD) of 1348 (316) mg/d and 473 (91) mg/d, respectively. Overall, there were 788 (10.3%) incident fractures, 1827 (9.0%) incident CVD, and 2855 people (8.6%) died. Comparing the highest with the lowest quartile of calcium intake, for all-cause mortality, the HR was 0.86 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.76-0.98, p(trend) = 0.01); for non-fatal CVD and stroke, the OR was 0.84 (95% CI 0.70-0.99, p(trend) = 0.04) and 0.69 (95% CI 0.51-0.93, p(trend) = 0.02), respectively; and the OR for fracture was 0.70 (95% CI 0.54-0.92, p(trend) = 0.004). In summary, for older men and women, calcium intakes of up to 1348 (316) mg/d from food were associated with decreased risks for fracture, non-fatal CVD, stroke, and all-cause mortality.

The associations between intake of or circulating fatty acids and risk of colorectal cancer (CRC) are unclear. We examined prospectively the associations between dietary or biomarker fatty acids and CRC. For 41,514 men and women, aged 40-69 years, baseline (1990-94) dietary intakes of fatty acids were estimated using a food frequency questionnaire and plasma phospholipid (PPL) fatty acids were measured for 4,205 participants including 395 CRC cases, according to a case-cohort design. Hazard ratios were computed using Cox regression adjusting for education, alcohol intake, smoking status, physical activity and total energy intake; and stratified for gender, ethnicity and family history of cancer, with age as the time scale. We assessed the heterogeneity of associations with colon and rectal cancers. PPL saturated fatty acids (SFAs) were positively associated with CRC risk, while total n-3 polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFA) and long chain marine n-3 PUFAs showed inverse associations, significant only for 22:5 n-3. No significant associations were observed for dietary fatty acid intakes but positive associations with CRC of borderline significance were seen for both dietary and PPL linoleic acid. Positive associations with dietary palmitic acid (16:0), MUFAs and n-6 PUFAs were seen for rectal but not colon cancers. PPL 22:6 n-3 was inversely associated with rectal cancer. Limiting intakes of SFAs and MUFAs could be assisted by following existing guidelines to limit red and processed meats which are important sources in the Australian diet. Our observations regarding linoleic acid should be examined further.

Background and Aims Dietary patterns are associated with risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). We aimed to examine associations of the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) and the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) with total, cardiovascular disease (CVD) and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study; and compare the strengths of the associations. Methods and Results In our prospective cohort study of 41,513 men and women aged 40–69 years, a food frequency questionnaire was completed at baseline and mortality data were obtained via linkage with local and national registries over an average of 19 years follow up. At baseline, questionnaires were completed and physical measures and blood samples taken. Cox proportional hazards models, adjusting for age, alcohol consumption, sex, region of origin, personal history of CVD or diabetes and family history of CVD, were used to assess associations between dietary scores and mortality. More Mediterranean or less inflammatory diets were associated with lower total, CVD and CHD mortality. The hazard ratio for total mortality comparing the highest and lowest quintiles was 1.16 (95%CI: 1.08–1.24) for DII; and 0.86 (95%CI: 0.80–0.93) comparing the highest and lowest three categories of MDS. Using the Bayesian information criterion, there was no evidence that the DII score was more strongly associated with total and CVD mortality than was the MDS. Conclusions The MDI and the DII show similar associations with total and cardiovascular mortality, consistent with the consensus that plant-based diets are beneficial for health.

Nutrients involved in one-carbon metabolism may play a role in carcinogenesis through DNA replication, repair and methylation mechanisms. Most studies on urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) have focused on folate. We sought to examine the association between B-group vitamins and methionine intake and UCC risk, overall and by subtype, and to test whether these associations are different for population subgroups whose nutritional status may be compromised. We followed participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (N = 41,513) for over 20 years and observed 500 UCC cases (89% originating in the bladder; superficial: 279, invasive: 221). Energy-adjusted dietary intakes of B vitamins (B1, B2, B3, B5, B6, B8, B9 and B12) and methionine were estimated from a 121-item food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline (1990-1994), using the residuals method. We used Cox regression models to compute hazard ratios (HRs) of UCC risk per standard deviation (SD) of log-transformed nutrient intakes and 95% confidence intervals, adjusted for potential confounders. We investigated associations by tumor subtype, and tested interactions with sex, country of birth, smoking and alcohol drinking. The risk of UCC appeared not to be associated with intake of B-group vitamins or methionine, and findings were consistent across tumor subtypes and across demographic and lifestyle characteristics of the participants. A potential interaction between vitamin B1 and alcohol drinking was observed (all participants: HR per 1 SD = 0.99 (0.91-1.09), never drinkers: HR = 0.81 (0.69-0.97), p-interaction = 0.02), which needs to be confirmed by other studies. Our findings do not indicate that dietary intake of nutrients involved in one-carbon metabolism are associated with UCC risk.

The association between aging and cancer is complex. Recent studies have developed measures of biological aging based on DNA methylation and called them "age acceleration." We aimed to assess the associations of age acceleration with risk of and survival from seven common cancers. Seven case-control studies of DNA methylation and colorectal, gastric, kidney, lung, prostate and urothelial cancer and B-cell lymphoma nested in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study were conducted. Cancer cases, vital status and cause of death were ascertained through linkage with cancer and death registries. Conditional logistic regression and Cox models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of five age acceleration measures derived from the Human Methylation 450 K Beadchip assay with cancer risk (N = 3,216 cases) and survival (N = 1,726 deaths), respectively. Epigenetic aging was associated with increased cancer risk, ranging from 4% to 9% per five-year age acceleration for the 5 measures considered. Heterogeneity by study was observed, with stronger associations for risk of kidney cancer and B-cell lymphoma. An associated increased risk of death following cancer diagnosis ranged from 2% to 6% per five-year age acceleration, with no evidence of heterogeneity by cancer site. Cancer risk and mortality were increased by 15-30% for the fourth versus first quartile of age acceleration. DNA methylation-based measures of biological aging are associated with increased cancer risk and shorter cancer survival, independently of major health risk factors.

ObjectiveMost studies investigating the association between resting heart rate (RHR) and mortality have focused on cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality, and measured RHR at only one time point. We aimed to assess associations of RHR and changes in RHR over approximately a decade with overall and cause-specific mortality.MethodsWe used data from participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with RHR measures at baseline (1990–1994; n=41 386; 9846 deaths) and at follow-up (2003–2007; n=21 692; 2818 deaths). RHR measures were taken by trained staff, using Dinamap monitors. Cox models were used to estimate HR and 95% CI for the associations between RHR and mortality. Vital status and cause of death were ascertained until August 2015 and December 2013, respectively.ResultsAfter adjustment for confounders, including blood pressure and known medical conditions but not arrhythmias or atrial fibrillation, RHR was associated with a higher risk of death of similar magnitude for CVD (HR per 10 beats per minute (bpm)=1.11, 95% CI 1.07 to 1.16), cancer (HR=1.10, 95% CI 1.06 to 1.13) and other causes (HR=1.20, 95% CI 1.16 to 1.25). Higher mortality was observed for most cancer sites, including breast (HR=1.16, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.31), colorectal (HR=1.18, 95% CI 1.08 to 1.29), kidney (HR=1.27, 95% CI 1.03 to 1.57) and lung cancer (HR=1.19, 95% CI 1.10 to 1.29). Temporal increases in RHR were associated with higher mortality, particularly for individuals whose RHR increased by more than 15 bpm.ConclusionsRHR and changes in RHR over a decade are associated with mortality risk, including from causes other than CVD such as breast, colorectal or lung cancer. Monitoring of RHR may have utility in identifying individuals at higher mortality risk.

Investigators in large-scale population health studies face increasing difficulties in recruiting representative samples of participants. Nonparticipation, item nonresponse, and attrition, when follow-up is involved, often result in highly selected samples even in well-designed studies. We aimed to assess the potential value of multilevel regression and poststratification, a method previously used to successfully forecast US presidential election results, for addressing biases due to nonparticipation in the estimation of population descriptive quantities in large cohort studies. The investigation was performed as an extensive case study using baseline data (2013-2014) from a large national health survey of Australian males (Ten to Men: The Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health). Analyses were performed in the open-source Bayesian computational package RStan. Results showed greater consistency and precision across population subsets of varying sizes when compared with estimates obtained using conventional survey sampling weights. Estimates for smaller population subsets exhibited a greater degree of shrinkage towards the national estimate. Multilevel regression and poststratification provides a promising analytical approach to addressing potential participation bias in the estimation of population descriptive quantities from large-scale health surveys and cohort studies.

Background Physical activity is associated with reduced risk of colorectal cancer, but most epidemiological studies have focused on occupational and recreational physical activity. The evidence for other domains of activity, and for sedentary behaviour, is limited. Methods Medline, Embase and Web of Science were searched from inception to December 2015 for studies examining domain-specific physical activity or sedentary behaviour and the risk of colon and/or rectal cancer. We extracted maximally adjusted relative risks (RRs) except when RRs not adjusted for body mass index, were also presented. We used random-effects meta-analysis to compute pooled RRs comparing the highest versus the lowest level of exposure. We used meta-regression to assess sources of heterogeneity in estimates. Results We identified 17 cohort and 21 case-control studies, of which 17 had occupational data, 23 had recreational data, three each had data on transport and household physical activity domains, and 6 studies had data on occupational sedentary behaviour. The pooled relative risks (RRs) for colon cancer were 0.74 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.67, 0.82) for occupational activity, 0.80 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.89) for recreational activity, 0.66 (95% CI: 0.45, 0.98) for transport-related physical activity, 0.85 (95% CI: 0.71, 1.02) for household physical activity, and 1.44 (95% CI: 1.28, 1.62) for occupational sedentary behaviour. For rectal cancer, the pooled RRs were 0.88 (95% CI: 0.79, 0.98) for occupational activity, 0.87 (95% CI: 0.75, 1.01) for recreational activity, 0.88 (95% CI: 0.70, 1.12) for transport-related physical activity, 1.01 (95% CI: 0.80, 1.27) for household physical activity, and 1.02 (95% CI: 0.82, 1.28) for occupational sedentary behaviour. Conclusions In addition to increasing occupational and recreational physical activity, promoting physical activity during transport and reducing sedentary behaviour in the workplace may also be useful colorectal cancer prevention strategies.

Cohort studies have reported inconsistent evidence regarding alcohol intake and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), mostly based on alcohol intake assessed close to study enrolment. We examined this association using alcohol intake measured from age 20 onwards. We calculated usual alcohol intake for 10-year periods from age 20 using recalled frequency and quantity of beverage-specific consumption for 37,990 participants aged 40-69 years from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Cox regression was performed to derive hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between alcohol intake (g/day) and NHL risk. After a mean follow-up of 19.3 years, 538 NHL cases were diagnosed. Approximately 80% of participants were either lifetime abstainers or consumed below 20 g of ethanol/day. All categories of lifetime alcohol intake were associated with about 20% lower incidence of NHL compared with lifetime abstention, but there was no evidence of a trend by amount consumed (HR = 0.97 per 10 g/day increment in intake, 95% CI: 0.92-1.03; p value = 0.3). HRs for beer, wine and spirits were 0.91 (95% CI: 0.83-1.00; p value = 0.05), 1.03 (95% CI: 0.94-1.12; p value = 0.6), and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.83-1.37; p value = 0.6), respectively, per 10 g/day increment in lifetime intake. There were no significant differences in associations between NHL subtypes. In this low-drinking cohort, we did not detect a dose-dependent association between lifetime alcohol intake and NHL risk.

Summary Background & aims Limited data are available on the relationship of protein from different food sources with metabolic syndrome (MetS) or changes in its components. We aimed to prospectively examine the relationships of protein intakes from animal, plant and major food groups with incident MetS and changes in its components. Methods 5324 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, who were free of cardiovascular disease, cancer, hyperlipidaemia, elevated plasma glucose, elevated blood pressure and elevated waist circumference (WC) at baseline (1990–1994), were included in the present investigation. Dietary intake was assessed using a validated 121-item Food Frequency Questionnaire and MetS components were measured at baseline and follow-up (2003–2007). Results We documented 459 new cases of MetS during a mean of 11.2 years' follow-up. Multivariate-adjusted odds ratios (ORs) (95% CI) of incident MetS for the highest compared with lowest quartile of percentage energy intake from total, animal and plant protein were 1.46 (1.01–2.10), 1.67 (1.13–2.48) and 0.60 (0.37–0.97), respectively. Positive associations with incident MetS were seen for protein from chicken (OR (95% CI): 1.37 (1.00, 1.87)) and red meat (OR (95% CI): 1.47 (1.01, 2.15)), while inverse associations with incident MetS were observed for protein from grains (OR (95% CI): 0.62 (0.40, 0.97)), legumes and nuts (OR (95% CI): 0.74 (0.53, 1.04)). Each 5% increment in energy intake from animal protein was associated with a 0.97 cm (95% CI: 0.50, 1.45) increase in WC, a 0.97 mmHg (95% CI: 0.13, 1.82) increase in systolic blood pressure, and a 0.94 kg (95% CI: 0.57, 1.32) increase in weight over 11 years. However, an inverse association between plant protein and change in WC (−1.38 cm (95% CI: −2.68, −0.07)) and weight (−1.97 kg (95% CI: −3.00, −0.94)) was identified. Conclusions Our findings suggest that higher plant protein and lower animal protein consumption may help to prevent MetS.

Background In a previous paper, we had assumed that the risk of screen-detected breast cancer mostly reflects inherent risk, and the risk of whether a breast cancer is interval versus screen-detected mostly reflects risk of masking. We found that inherent risk was predicted by body mass index (BMI) and dense area (DA) or percent dense area (PDA), but not by non-dense area (NDA). Masking, however, was best predicted by PDA but not BMI. In this study, we aimed to investigate if these associations vary by tumor characteristics and mode of detection. Methods We conducted a case-control study nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study of 244 screen-detected cases matched to 700 controls and 148 interval cases matched to 446 controls. DA, NDA and PDA were measured using the Cumulus software. Tumor characteristics included size, grade, lymph node involvement, and ER, PR, and HER2 status. Conditional and unconditional logistic regression were applied as appropriate to estimate the Odds per Adjusted Standard Deviation (OPERA) adjusted for age and BMI, allowing the association with BMI to be a function of age at diagnosis. Results For screen-detected cancer, both DA and PDA were associated to an increased risk of tumors of large size (OPERA ~ 1.6) and positive lymph node involvement (OPERA ~ 1.8); no association was observed for BMI and NDA. For risk of interval versus screen-detected breast cancer, the association with risk for any of the three mammographic measures did not vary by tumor characteristics; an association was observed for BMI for positive lymph nodes (OPERA ~ 0.6). No associations were observed for tumor grade and ER, PR and HER2 status of tumor. Conclusions Both DA and PDA were predictors of inherent risk of larger breast tumors and positive nodal status, whereas for each of the three mammographic density measures the association with risk of masking did not vary by tumor characteristics. This might raise the hypothesis that the risk of breast tumours with poorer prognosis, such as larger and node positive tumours, is intrinsically associated with increased mammographic density and not through delay of diagnosis due to masking.

Objective: This study aimed to examine the association between baseline and changes in dietary quality assessed by the Alternative Healthy Eating Index-2010 (AHEI-2010) and abdominal aortic calcification (AAC) among community-dwelling older adults. Design: Population-based longitudinal study. Setting: A subset of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Participants: 262 community-dwelling adults (60% female) aged 53 ± 5 years at baseline. Measurements: Dietary intake was assessed using validated Food Frequency Questionnaires at baseline (1990-1994) and follow-up (2010-2011). AAC was evaluated by radiography and dual-energy x-ray absorptiometry (DXA) at follow-up. Results: Higher baseline AHEI-2010 score was associated with lower AAC severity by radiography [OR (95% CI) for Tertile 3 VS Tertile 1: 0.53 (0.29-0.99)] after adjustment for gender, age, physical activity, smoking, BMI, systolic blood pressure, plasma total cholesterol, calcium and energy intake. The association between AHEI-2010 and AAC severity by DXA was also significant in the multivariate-adjusted model [OR (95% CI) for Tertile 3 VS Tertile 1: 0.38 (0.20-0.70)]. Changes in AHEI-2010 over 18 years were not associated with AAC severity. Conclusion: Baseline but not the changes in AHEI-2010 was inversely associated with the risk of AAC severity suggesting that ahigh quality diet might help prevent or delay the progression of AAC in community-dwelling older adults and the benefits might be manifested over the long-term.

Global measures of peripheral blood DNA methylation have been associated with risk of some malignancies, including breast, bladder, and gastric cancer. Here, we examined genome-wide measures of peripheral blood DNA methylation in prostate cancer and its non-aggressive and aggressive disease forms.We used a matched, case-control study of 687 incident prostate cancer samples, nested within a larger prospective cohort study. DNA methylation was measured in pre-diagnostic, peripheral blood samples using the Illumina Infinium HM450K BeadChip. Genome-wide measures of DNA methylation were computed as the median M-value of all CpG sites and according to CpG site location and regulatory function. We used conditional logistic regression to test for associations between genome-wide measures of DNA methylation and risk of prostate cancer and its subtypes, and by time between blood draw and diagnosis.We observed no associations between the genome-wide measure of DNA methylation based on all CpG sites and risk of prostate cancer or aggressive disease. Risk of non-aggressive disease was associated with higher methylation of CpG islands (OR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.68-0.94), promoter regions (OR = 0.79; 95%CI = 0.66-0.93), and high density CpG regions (OR = 0.80; 95%CI = 0.68-0.94). Additionally, higher methylation of all CpGs (OR = 0.66; 95%CI = 0.48-0.89), CpG shores (OR = 0.62; 95%CI = 0.45-0.84), and regulatory regions (OR = 0.68; 95% CI = 0.51-0.91) was associated with a reduced risk of overall prostate cancer within 5 years of blood draw but not thereafter.A reduced risk of overall prostate cancer within 5 years of blood draw and non-aggressive prostate cancer was associated with higher genome-wide methylation of peripheral blood DNA. While these data have no immediate clinical utility, with further work they may provide insight into the early events of prostate carcinogenesis. Prostate 77:471-478, 2017. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

Aberrant DNA methylation is a key feature of breast carcinoma. We aimed to test the association between breast cancer risk and epigenome-wide methylation in DNA from peripheral blood. Nested case-control study within the prospective Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. DNA was extracted from before-diagnosis blood samples (420 incident cases and matched controls). Methylation was measured with the Illumina Infinium Human Methylation 450 BeadChip array. Odds ratio (OR) for epigenome-wide methylation, quantified as the mean beta values across the CpGs, in relation to breast cancer risk were estimated using conditional logistic regression. Overall, the OR for breast cancer was 0.42 (95% CI 0.20-0.90) for the top versus bottom quartile of epigenome-wide DNA methylation and the OR for a one standard deviation increment was 0.69 (95% CI 0.50-0.95; test for linear trend, p = 0.02). Epigenome-wide DNA methylation of CpGs within functional promoters was associated with an increased risk, whereas epigenome-wide DNA methylation of genomic regions outside promoters was associated with decreased risk (test for heterogeneity, p = 0.0002). The increased risk associated with epigenome-wide DNA methylation in functional promoters did not vary by time between blood collection and diagnosis, whereas the inverse association with epigenome-wide DNA methylation outside functional promoters was strongest when the interval from blood collection to diagnosis was less than 5 years and weakest for the longest interval. Epigenome-wide methylation in DNA extracted from peripheral blood collected before diagnosis may have potential utility as markers of breast cancer risk and for early detection.

Cohort studies have rarely examined the association between upper aero-digestive tract (UADT) cancer risk and lifetime alcohol intake. We examined the associations between incident squamous cell carcinoma of the UADT (oral cavity, pharynx, larynx, and esophagus) and alcohol intake for different periods in life using data from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study.Usual alcohol intake for 10-year periods from age 20 was calculated using recalled frequency and quantity of beverage-specific consumption. Cox regression with age as the time axis was performed to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95 % confidence intervals (CI) for the associations of UADT cancer with alcohol intake for different periods in life compared with abstention.During a mean follow-up of 16.2 person-years, 98 incident cases of UADT cancer were identified. We observed a dose-dependent association between lifetime alcohol intake and the risk of UADT cancer (multivariable-adjusted HR 2.67, 95 % CI 1.27-5.60 for an intake of ≥40 g/day and multivariable-adjusted HR 1.16, 95 % CI 1.06-1.28 for a 10 g/day increment in intake). A positive association with baseline alcohol intake (multivariable-adjusted HR 1.12, 95 % CI 1.02-1.24 for a 10 g/day increment in intake) was found to be a slightly weaker predictor of risk than lifetime intake.Limiting alcohol intake from early adulthood may reduce UADT cancer risk.

Recognition that vitamin D might be associated with many chronic diseases has led to large-scale epidemiological and clinical studies. Dried blood spots (DBS) are a useful resource for these studies. Consequently, accurate, efficient, and inexpensive assays to quantify 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25OHD) in DBS are required.This study evaluated the validity and reliability of a liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry assay for measuring 25OHD in archived DBS and compared measurements of 25OHD in DBS with those in plasma.Sixty-two participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who had plasma and matching DBS stored since study entry in the early 1990s were randomly selected for a study calibrating 25OHD concentrations in DBS with plasma. As part of a study of vitamin D and mortality, cancer, and diabetes, we also assessed the reliability of measurements from DBS using 500 replicates placed randomly within 31 batches run over 15 months.25OHD concentrations were measured by liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry.There was good agreement between measurements of 25OHD from DBS and plasma; R(2) = 0.73 from a regression of plasma concentration on DBS concentration. The within-batch and between-batch intraclass correlations from the 500 replicate measurements were 0.82 (95% confidence interval, 0.80, 0.85) and 0.73 (95% confidence interval, 0.68, 0.78), respectively.Measuring 25OHD in DBS is a valid and reliable alternative to measuring 25OHD in sera or plasma. A simple calibration model was developed to convert measurements from DBS to equivalent plasma measurements, thus enabling comparisons against clinical reference ranges and with studies using sera or plasma samples.

Suboptimal vitamin D status can be corrected by vitamin D supplementation, but individual responses to supplementation vary. We aimed to examine genetic and nongenetic determinants of change in serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) after supplementation.We used data from a pilot randomized controlled trial in which 644 adults aged 60 to 84 years were randomly assigned to monthly doses of placebo, 30 000 IU, or 60 000 IU vitamin D3 for 12 months. Baseline characteristics were obtained from a self-administered questionnaire. Eighty-eight single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 41 candidate genes were genotyped using Sequenom MassArray technology. Serum 25(OH)D levels before and after the intervention were measured using the Diasorin Liaison platform immunoassay. We used linear regression models to examine associations between genetic and nongenetic factors and change in serum 25(OH)D levels.Supplement dose and baseline 25(OH)D level explained 24% of the variability in response to supplementation. Body mass index, self-reported health status, and ambient UV radiation made a small additional contribution. SNPs in CYP2R1, IRF4, MC1R, CYP27B1, VDR, TYRP1, MCM6, and HERC2 were associated with change in 25(OH)D level, although only CYP2R1 was significant after adjustment for multiple testing. Models including SNPs explained a similar proportion of variability in response to supplementation as models that included personal and environmental factors.Stepwise regression analyses suggest that genetic variability may be associated with response to supplementation, perhaps suggesting that some people might need higher doses to reach optimal 25(OH)D levels or that there is variability in the physiologically normal level of 25(OH)D.

The results from the few cohort studies that have measured usual alcohol consumption over time have not been summarized. We therefore conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify mortality risk. Pertinent studies were identified by searching the Medline, Web of Science, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature (CINAHL) Plus, and Scopus databases through August 2012 using broad search criteria. Studies reporting relative mortality risks for quantitatively defined categories of alcohol consumption over time were eligible. Nine cohort studies published during 1991-2010 (comprising 62,950 participants and 10,490 deaths) met the inclusion criteria. For men, there was weak evidence of lower mortality risk with low levels of alcohol intake over time but higher mortality risk for those with intakes over 40 g/day compared with abstainers using a random-effects model (P for nonlinearity = 0.02). The pooled relative risks were 0.90 (95% confidence interval: 0.81, 0.99) for 1-29 g/day, 1.19 (95% confidence interval: 0.89, 1.58) for 30-59 g/day, and 1.52 (95% confidence interval: 0.78, 2.98) for 60 or more g/day compared with abstention. There was moderate between-study heterogeneity but no evidence of publication bias. Studies including women were extremely scarce. Our findings include a curvilinear association between drinking over time and mortality risk for men overall and widespread disparity in methods used to capture exposure and report results.

The proportion of Pap smears containing an endocervical component (ECC) has been declining in Australia. Given that ECC negative (ECC-) smears may be associated with reduced sensitivity, we undertook a retrospective cohort study to estimate rates of histologically confirmed high-grade cervical abnormality (HGA) and cancer in women with negative Pap smears with and without an ECC. Women 18-69 years with at least two Pap smears between 1 January 2001 and 31 December 2010 with the first smear in that period (index smear) showing no abnormality were eligible. Follow-up ended at date of the first abnormal smear, date of histological diagnosis, date of hysterectomy, date of death, or 31 December 2010, whichever came first. ECC status was treated as a time varying exposure. Follow-up was split at each smear after the index smear. Poisson regression was used to estimate adjusted incidence rates and incidence rate ratios (IRR) by ECC status. The incidence rate of histologically confirmed HGA was significantly lower following ECC- smears than after ECC+ smears (adjusted IRR: 0.69, 95%Confidence Interval (CI) 0.62-0.77), particularly at older ages (interaction between ECC status and age, p = 0.001). In contrast, the overall rate of invasive cancer was not significantly different after ECC- than after ECC+ smears (IRR: 1.27, 95%CI 0.90-1.77). In conclusion, women had a lower rate of confirmed HGA and no significant increase in the rate of invasive cervical cancer following ECC- smears. This study does not support differential (accelerated) follow-up in women with a negative smear without an endocervical component.

To assess the independent effect of waist circumference on mortality across the entire body mass index (BMI) range and to estimate the loss in life expectancy related to a higher waist circumference.We pooled data from 11 prospective cohort studies with 650,386 white adults aged 20 to 83 years and enrolled from January 1, 1986, through December 31, 2000. We used proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs for the association of waist circumference with mortality.During a median follow-up of 9 years (maximum, 21 years), 78,268 participants died. After accounting for age, study, BMI, smoking status, alcohol consumption, and physical activity, a strong positive linear association of waist circumference with all-cause mortality was observed for men (HR, 1.52 for waist circumferences of ≥110 vs90 cm; 95% CI, 1.45-1.59; HR, 1.07 per 5-cm increment in waist circumference; 95% CI, 1.06-1.08) and women (HR, 1.80 for waist circumferences of ≥95 vs70 cm; 95% CI, 1.70-1.89; HR, 1.09 per 5-cm increment in waist circumference; 95% CI, 1.08-1.09). The estimated decrease in life expectancy for highest vs lowest waist circumference was approximately 3 years for men and approximately 5 years for women. The HR per 5-cm increment in waist circumference was similar for both sexes at all BMI levels from 20 to 50 kg/m(2), but it was higher at younger ages, higher for longer follow-up, and lower among male current smokers. The associations were stronger for heart and respiratory disease mortality than for cancer.In white adults, higher waist circumference was positively associated with higher mortality at all levels of BMI from 20 to 50 kg/m(2). Waist circumference should be assessed in combination with BMI, even for those in the normal BMI range, as part of risk assessment for obesity-related premature mortality.

Background: Observational data suggested that supplementation with vitamin D could reduce risk of infection, but trial data are inconsistent. Objective: We aimed to examine the effect of oral vitamin D supplementation on antibiotic use. Design: We conducted a post hoc analysis of data from pilot D-Health, which is a randomized trial carried out in a general community setting between October 2010 and February 2012. A total of 644 Australian residents aged 60–84 y were randomly assigned to receive monthly doses of a placebo (n = 214) or 30,000 (n = 215) or 60,000 (n = 215) IU oral cholecalciferol for #12 mo. Antibiotics prescribed during the intervention period were ascertained by linkage with pharmacy records through the national health insurance scheme (Medicare Australia). Results: People who were randomly assigned 60,000 IU cholecalciferol had nonsignificant 28% lower risk of having antibiotics prescribed at least once than did people in the placebo group (RR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.48, 1.07). In analyses stratified by age, in subjects aged $70 y, there was a significant reduction in antibiotic use in the highdose vitamin D compared with placebo groups (RR: 0.53; 95% CI: 0.32, 0.90), whereas there was no effect in participants ,70 y old (RR: 1.07; 95% CI: 0.58, 1.97) (P-interaction ¼ 0.1). Conclusion: Although this study was a post hoc analysis and statistically nonsignificant, this trial lends some support to the hypothesis that supplementation with 60,000 IU vitamin D/mo is associated with lower risk of infection, particularly in older adults. The trial was registered at the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (anzctr.org.au) as ACTRN12609001063202. Am J Clin Nutr doi: 10.3945/ajcn.113.063271.

ObjectiveLimited research has assessed the association between patterns of body mass index (BMI) change across adulthood and mortality. We aimed to identify groups of individuals who followed specific group-based BMI trajectories across adulthood, using weight collected on three occasions and recalled data from early adulthood, and to examine associations with all-cause and cause-specific mortality.DesignProspective cohort study.SettingMelbourne, Australia.ParticipantsAdults (n=29 881) enrolled in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, who were aged from 40 to 70 years between 1990 and 1994, and had BMI data for at least three time points.OutcomeDeaths from any cause before 31 March 2017 and deaths from obesity-related cancers, cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and other causes before 31 December 2013.ResultsWe identified six group-based BMI trajectories: lower-normal stable (TR1), higher-normal stable (TR2), normal to overweight (TR3), chronic borderline obesity (TR4), normal to class I obesity (TR5) and overweight to class II obesity (TR6). Generally, compared with maintaining lower-normal BMI throughout adulthood, the lowest mortality was experienced by participants who maintained higher-normal BMI (HR 0.90; 95% CI 0.84 to 0.97); obesity during midlife was associated with higher all-cause mortality even when BMI was normal in early adulthood (HR 1.09; 95% CI 0.98 to 1.21) and prolonged borderline obesity from early adulthood was also associated with elevated mortality (HR 1.16; 95% CI 1.01 to 1.33). These associations were stronger for never-smokers and for death due to obesity-related cancers. Being overweight in early adulthood and becoming class II obese was associated with higher CVD mortality relative to maintaining lower-normal BMI (HR 2.27; 95% CI 1.34 to 3.87).ConclusionOur findings highlight the importance of weight management throughout adulthood to reduce mortality.

Mucinous differentiation is associated with both CpG island methylator phenotype and microsatellite instability in colorectal cancer. The mucinous phenotype derives from abundant expression of the colonic goblet cell mucin, MUC2, and de novo expression of gastric foveolar mucin, MUC5AC. We, therefore, investigated the protein expression levels of MUC2 and MUC5AC, as well as MUC5B and MUC6, in molecular subtypes of colorectal cancer. Seven-hundred and twenty-two incident colorectal carcinomas occurring in 702 participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study were characterized for methylator status, MLH1 methylation, somatic BRAF and KRAS mutations, microsatellite-instability status, MLH1, MSH2, MSH6, and PMS2 mismatch repair, and p53 protein expression, and their histopathology was reviewed. Protein expression levels of MUC2, MUC5AC, MUC5B, MUC6, and the putative mucin regulator CDX2 were compared with molecular and clinicopathological features of colorectal cancers using odds ratios and corresponding 95% confidence intervals. MUC2 overexpression (>25% positive tumor cells) was observed in 33% colorectal cancers, MUC5B expression in 53%, and de novo MUC5AC and MUC6 expression in 50% and 39%, respectively. Co-expression of two or more of the mucins was commonly observed. Expression of MUC2, MUC5AC and MUC6 was strongly associated with features associated with tumorigenesis via the serrated neoplasia pathway, including methylator positivity, somatic BRAF p.V600E mutation, and mismatch repair deficiency, as well as proximal location, poor differentiation, lymphocytic response, and increased T stage (all P

Mammographic density measurements are associated with risk of breast cancer. Few studies have investigated the concurrent associations of mammographic dense and nondense areas, body mass index (weight (kg)/height (m)(2)), and ages at mammogram and diagnosis with breast cancer risk. We conducted a matched, case-control study nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (cohort recruitment in 1990-1994 and follow-up until 2007) to estimate the associations between these factors and breast cancer risk under alternative causal models. Mammographic dense area was positively associated with risk, and the strength of this association was only slightly influenced by the choice of the causal model (relative risk per 1 standard deviation = 1.50, 95% confidence interval: 1.32, 1.70). Mammographic nondense area was inversely associated with risk under the assumption that fat in the body and fat in the breast cause breast cancer through independent mechanisms (relative risk per 1 standard deviation = 0.75, 95% confidence interval: 0.65, 0.86), whereas it was not associated with risk under the assumption that they are both proxies of adiposity. Knowledge about the biological mechanisms regulating the role played by mammographic nondense area and body fat on breast cancer risk is essential to better estimate their impacts on individual risk.

Objectives: To examine associations between dietary patterns identified by factor analysis, and successful ageing. Design: Prospective cohort study with diet measured in 1990-4, and successful ageing in 2003-7. Ordered logistic regression with outcome determined as dead/usual ageing/successful ageing was used to examine associations with quintile groups of dietary factor scores. Participants: Men and women (n=6308), without history of major illness at baseline, and aged >70 years at follow-up, or who had died before follow-up but would have been aged >70 at the commencement of follow-up, from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Measurements: Frequencies of intake of 121 foods at baseline were collected in a food frequency questionnaire. Anthropometry and other health and lifestyle data were collected. At follow-up, questionnaire data relating to mental health, physical function and medical history were used to define successful ageing. Results: Four dietary factors were identified, characterized by higher loadings for (1) vegetables; (2) fruit, (3) feta, legumes, salad, olive oil, and inverse loadings for tea, margarine, cake, sweet biscuits and puddings; (4) meat, white bread, savoury pastry dishes and fried foods. In models excluding body size, the second factor ‘Fruit’ was positively associated with successful ageing (OR in top 20% vs lowest 20% of score 1.31, 95%CI (1.05-1.63), p trend across quintile groups 0.001); while the fourth factor ‘Meat/fatty foods’ was inversely associated (OR in top 20% vs lowest 20% of score 0.69, 95%CI (0.55-0.86), p trend across quintile groups 0.001). Factors 1 and 3 did not show significant associations with successful ageing. The association for ‘Fruit’ was little altered after adjustment for body size, while for ‘Meat/fatty foods’ the association was somewhat attenuated. Conclusion: A dietary pattern including plenty of fruit while limiting meat and fried foods may improve the likelihood of ageing successfully. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

Background: Adult weight is positively associated with postmenopausal breast cancer but few studies have investigated whether there are associations with weight and body mass index (BMI) in early adulthood, or subsequent weight change. Methods: A total of 14,441 postmenopausal women from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS) were followed for 16.5 years (mean) and 668 incident breast cancers were identified. Hazard ratios (HRs) were estimated using Cox regression. Results: Weight and BMI at 18 to 21 years were not associated with risk of any type of breast cancer and there was no variation by age. Women with the greatest increase in weight and BMI had higher risk at older ages [HR per 5 kg/m2 gain in BMI = 1.24; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.11–1.40], although the test for homogeneity by age was not significant. At older ages, the association was stronger for progesterone (PR) positive disease compared with PR negative disease (HR per 5 kg/m2 gain in BMI, 1.43; 95% CI, 1.23–1.66; test for homogeneity by PR status, P < 0.01) and for diseases that were positive for both estrogen (ER) and PR (HR per 5 kg/m2 gain in BMI, 1.45; 95% CI, 1.24–1.69; test for homogeneity by ER/PR status, P = 0.02). HRs were also greater for HER2− and luminal A tumors, but the P values for homogeneity by tumor subgroups were not significant. Conclusion: Early adulthood weight is not associated with risk of postmenopausal breast cancer. Greater weight gain during adulthood might be associated with increased risk for older women (>69 years) and this association might vary by tumor hormone receptor status. Impact: Further studies need to investigate the impact of increase in weight during adulthood on postmenopausal breast cancer risk and the potential variation by age or tumor characteristics. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 22(8); 1409–16. ©2013 AACR.

B vitamins are involved in 1-carbon metabolism, which is necessary for DNA replication, DNA repair, and regulation of gene expression. Recent studies suggest inverse associations between folate and vitamin B6 intakes and colorectal cancer risk but associations with other B vitamins and methionine have not been widely studied. After following 14,645 men and 22,467 women for 15 yr on average, we ascertained 910 incident colorectal cancers. Dietary intakes were estimated using a 121-item food frequency questionnaire. Hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals were estimated using Cox regression. We found some evidence of a U-shaped relationship between colon cancer risk and vitamin B6 and an inverse U-shaped relationship between rectal cancer risk and B12 (test for the quadratic trend, P = 0.005 and P = 0.0005 respectively). For colon cancer, we observed a reduced risk associated with low methionine/high folate, HR = 0.63 (0.49, 0.80) and an increased risk associated with high methionine/high folate, HR = 1.36 (1.06, 1.74) (P interaction < 0.0001). Our study suggests a U-shaped association between colon cancer risk and vitamin B6 intake and an inverse U-shaped association between rectal cancer risk and vitamin B12. Adequate folate intake might protect against colon cancer risk in those with low methionine intake.

Purpose: To determine the prevalence of epiretinal membranes (ERMs) in Melbourne, Australia and its risk factors in this population. Methods: The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study is a prospective study investigating the role of diet and life style in the causation of common chronic diseases. Eighty-six percent of participants were of Northern European origin born in Australia or United Kingdom and 14% were migrants from Greece or Italy (Southern European origin). Nonmydriatic digital retinal photography was implemented at Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study follow-up. The ERMs were recorded as cellophane macular reflex without retinal folds or preretinal macular fibrosis (PMF) with retinal folds. Results: A total of 22,406 participants had retinal photography, 95% (n = 21,241) were eligible for ERM grading. The ERM prevalence were 8.9% (1,882); cellophane macular reflex, 4.9% (1,047); and preretinal macular fibrosis, 3.9% (835). After adjustment for age, sex, level of education, smoking status, level of cholesterol, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, waist measurement, blood pressure, diabetes, and stroke, increasing age and Southern European ethnicity was significantly associated with ERMs. Overall, in Southern Europeans, ERMs odd ratio was 1.97 (95% confidence intervals, 1.67–2.31), P < 0.001; preretinal macular fibrosis was 1.82 (95% confidence intervals, 1.43–2.31), P < 0.001; and cellophane macular reflex was 1.93 (1.57–2.38), P < 0.001. Conclusion: In an older Australian population, the prevalence of ERMs was 8.9% and was almost two times higher in participants of Southern European origin than Northern European origin.

Background: Both prostate cancer and androgenetic alopecia are strongly age-related conditions that are considered to be androgen dependent, but studies of the relationship between them have yielded inconsistent results. We aimed to assess whether androgenetic alopecia at ages 20 and 40 years are associated with risk of prostate cancer. Methods: At a follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, men were asked to assess their hair pattern at ages 20 and 40 years relative to eight categories in showcards. Cases were men notified to the Victorian Cancer Registry with prostate cancer diagnosed between cohort enrollment (1990–1994) and follow-up attendance (2003–2009). Flexible parametric survival models were used to estimate age-varying HRs and predicted cumulative probabilities of prostate cancer by androgenetic alopecia categories. Results: Of 9,448 men that attended follow-up and provided data on androgenetic alopecia, we identified 476 prostate cancer cases during a median follow-up of 11 years four months. Cumulative probability of prostate cancer was greater at all ages up to 76 years, for men with vertex versus no androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years. At age of 76 years, the estimated probabilities converged to 0.15. Vertex androgenetic alopecia at 40 years was also associated with younger age of diagnosis for prostate cancer cases. Conclusions: Vertex androgenetic alopecia at age of 40 years might be a marker of increased risk of early-onset prostate cancer. Impact: If confirmed, these results suggest that the apparently conflicting findings of previous studies might be explained by failure to adequately model the age-varying nature of the association between androgenetic alopecia and prostate cancer. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 22(2); 209–15. ©2012 AACR.

Measures of biological age based on blood DNA methylation, referred to as age acceleration (AA), have been developed. We examined whether AA was associated with health risk factors and overall and cause-specific mortality. At baseline (1990-1994), blood samples were drawn from 2,818 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (Melbourne, Victoria, Australia). DNA methylation was determined using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array (Illumina Inc., San Diego, California). Mixed-effects models were used to examine the association of AA with health risk factors. Cox models were used to assess the association of AA with mortality. A total of 831 deaths were observed during a median 10.7 years of follow-up. Associations of AA were observed with male sex, Greek nationality (country of birth), smoking, obesity, diabetes, lower education, and meat intake. AA measures were associated with increased mortality, and this was only partly accounted for by known determinants of health (hazard ratios were attenuated by 20%-40%). Weak evidence of heterogeneity in the association was observed by sex (P = 0.06) and cause of death (P = 0.07) but not by other factors. DNA-methylation-based AA measures are associated with several major health risk factors, but these do not fully explain the association between AA and mortality. Future research should investigate what genetic and environmental factors determine AA.

Ethanol in alcoholic beverages is a known carcinogen, but its association with aggressive prostate cancer (APC) is uncertain. Recent studies have shown a modest increase in risk of APC associated with heavy alcohol intake while association for beverage types remain inconsistent. Using a case–control design and self-administered questionnaire, we examined the association between APC (high grade and/or advanced stage) and frequency and quantity of alcohol intake 2 years prior to enrolment. Furthermore, we delineated the relationships for beverage-specific intakes of beer, red wine, white wine and spirits. The study included 1282 APC cases and 951 controls. Beer intake frequency of ⩾5 days per week was associated with increased risk compared with no beer intake (odds ratio=1.66, 95% confidence interval: 1.12–2.48) whereas wine was protective at all frequencies of consumption compared with those with no wine intake. For every 10 g per week ethanol intake from beer increase, the odds of advanced PC rose by 3% (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 1.02–1.05). No such increased risk was observed for red or white wine while a marginal dose–response relationship was found for spirits (OR=1.03, 95% CI: 0.99–1.07). Heavy beer and possibly spirits consumption is associated with increased risk while no dose–response relationship was found for red or white wine. Wine drinkers at all frequencies have a decreased risk of APC compared with those who did not drink wine.

Ethanol in alcoholic beverages is a causative agent for colorectal cancer. Colorectal cancer is a biologically heterogeneous disease, and molecular subtypes defined by the presence of somatic mutations in BRAF and KRAS are known to exist. We examined associations between lifetime alcohol intake and molecular and anatomic subtypes of colorectal cancer. We calculated usual alcohol intake for 10-year periods from age 20 using recalled frequency and quantity of beverage-specific consumption for 38,149 participants aged 40-69 years from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Cox regression was performed to derive hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between lifetime alcohol intake and colorectal cancer risk. Heterogeneity in the HRs across subtypes of colorectal cancer was assessed. A positive dose-dependent association between lifetime alcohol intake and overall colorectal cancer risk (mean follow-up = 14.6 years; n = 596 colon and n = 326 rectal cancer) was observed (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.12 per 10 g/day increment). The risk was greater for rectal than colon cancer (p

Prostate cancer is the most frequently diagnosed cancer in males in developed countries. To identify common prostate cancer susceptibility alleles, we genotyped 211,155 SNPs on a custom Illumina array (iCOGS) in blood DNA from 25,074 prostate cancer cases and 24,272 controls from the international PRACTICAL Consortium. Twenty-three new prostate cancer susceptibility loci were identified at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10(-8)). More than 70 prostate cancer susceptibility loci, explaining ∼30% of the familial risk for this disease, have now been identified. On the basis of combined risks conferred by the new and previously known risk loci, the top 1% of the risk distribution has a 4.7-fold higher risk than the average of the population being profiled. These results will facilitate population risk stratification for clinical studies.

The reliability of methylation measures from the widely used HumanMethylation450 (HM450K) microarray has not been assessed for DNA from dried blood spots (DBS) or peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC), nor for combined data from different studies. Repeated HM450K methylation measures in DNA from DBS and PBMC samples were available from participants in six case-control studies nested within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Reliability was assessed for individual CpGs by calculating the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) based on technical replicates (samples repeated in a single study; 126 PBMC, 136 DBS) and study duplicates (samples repeated across studies; 280 PBMC, 769 DBS) using mixed-effects models. Reliability based on technical replicates was moderate for PBMC (median ICC = 0.42), but lower for DBS (median ICC = 0.20). Study duplicates gave lower ICCs than technical replicates. CpGs that were either highly methylated or unmethylated generally had lower ICCs, which appeared to be mostly related to their lower variability. The ICCs for global methylation measures were high, typically greater than 0.70. The reliability of methylation measures determined by the HM450K microarray is wide-ranging and depends primarily on the variability in methylation at individual CpG sites. The power of association studies is low for a substantial proportion of CpGs in the HM450K assay.

ObjectiveTo evaluate the reliability and validity of the FFQ administered to participants in the follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS), and to provide calibration coefficients.DesignA random sample stratified by country of birth, age, sex and BMI was selected from MCCS participants. Participants completed two FFQ and three 24 h recalls over 1 year. Reliability was evaluated by intraclass correlation coefficients (ICC). Validity coefficients (VC) were estimated from structural equation models and calibration coefficients obtained from regression calibration models.SettingAdults born in Australia, Greece or Italy.SubjectsNine hundred and sixty-five participants consented to the study; of these, 459 participants were included in the reliability analyses and 615 in the validity and calibration analyses.ResultsThe FFQ showed good repeatability for twenty-three nutrients with ICC ranging from 0·66 to 0·80 for absolute nutrient intakes for Australian-born and from 0·51 to 0·74 for Greek/Italian-born. For Australian-born, VC ranged from 0·46 (monounsaturated fat) to 0·83 (Ca) for nutrient densities, comparing well with other studies. For Greek/Italian-born, VC were between 0·21 (Na) and 0·64 (riboflavin). Calibration coefficients for nutrient densities ranged from 0·39 (retinol) to 0·74 (Mg) for Australian-born and from 0·18 (Zn) to 0·54 (riboflavin) for Greek/Italian-born.ConclusionsThe FFQ used in the MCCS follow-up study is suitable for estimating energy-adjusted nutrients for Australian-born participants. However, its performance for estimating intakes is poorer for southern European migrants and alternative dietary assessment methods ought to be considered if dietary data are to be measured in similar demographic groups.

ObjectiveTo investigate relationships between mortality and circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D), 25-hydroxycholecalciferol (25(OH)D3) and 25-hydroxyergocalciferol (25(OH)D2).DesignCase–cohort study within the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). We measured 25(OH)D2and 25(OH)D3in archived dried blood spots by LC–MS/MS. Cox regression was used to estimate mortality hazard ratios (HR), with adjustment for confounders.SettingGeneral community.SubjectsThe MCCS included 29 206 participants, who at recruitment in 1990–1994 were aged 40–69 years, had dried blood spots collected and no history of cancer. For the present study we selected participants who died by 31 December 2007 (n2410) and a random sample (sub-cohort,n2996).ResultsThe HR per 25 nmol/l increment in concentration of 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3were 0·86 (95 % CI 0·78, 0·96;P=0·007) and 0·85 (95 % CI 0·77, 0·95;P=0·003), respectively. Of 5108 participants, sixty-three (1·2 %) had detectable 25(OH)D2; their mean 25(OH)D concentration was 11·9 (95 % CI 7·3, 16·6) nmol/l higher (P2was 1·80 (95 % CI 1·09, 2·97;P=0·023); for those with detectable 25(OH)D2, the HR per 25 nmol/l increment in 25(OH)D was 1·06 (95 % CI 0·87, 1·29;Pinteraction=0·02). HR were similar for participants who reported being in good, very good or excellent health four years after recruitment.ConclusionsTotal 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3concentrations were inversely associated with mortality. The finding that the inverse association for 25(OH)D was restricted to those with no detectable 25(OH)D2requires confirmation in populations with higher exposure to ergocalciferol.

Background Studies reporting the association between change in weight or body mass index during midlife and risk of colorectal cancer have found inconsistent results, and only one study to date has reported the association between change in waist circumference (a measure of central adiposity) and risk of colorectal cancer. Methods We investigated the association between risk of colorectal cancer and changes in directly measured waist circumference and weight from baseline (1990-1994) to wave 2 (2003-2007). Cox regression, with age as the time metric and follow-up starting at wave 2, adjusted for covariates selected from a causal model, was used to estimate the Hazard Ratios (HRs) and 95 % Confidence Intervals (CIs) for the change in waist circumference and weight in relation to risk of colorectal cancer. Results A total of 373 cases of colorectal cancer were diagnosed during an average 9 years of follow-up of 20,605 participants. Increases in waist circumference and weight were not associated with the risk of colorectal cancer (HR per 5 cm increase in waist circumference = 1.02; 95 % CI: 0.95, 1.10; HR per 5 kg increase in weight = 0.93; 0.85, 1.02). For individuals with a waist circumference at baseline that was less than the sex-specific mean value there was a slight increased risk of colorectal cancer associated with a 5 cm increase in waist circumference at wave 2 (HR = 1.08; 0.97, 1.21). Conclusion Increases in waist circumference and weight during midlife do not appear to be associated with the risk of colorectal cancer. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12885-016-2144-1) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Studies investigating the association of food and nutrient consumption with the risk of urothelial cell carcinoma (UCC) have produced mixed results. We used three common dietary scores, the Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), the Alternate Healthy Eating Index 2010 (AHEI-2010) and the Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) to assess the evidence of an association between diet and the risk of UCC. Over a median follow-up time of 21.3 years, 379 incident UCC cases were diagnosed. Dietary scores were calculated using data from a 121-item food frequency questionnaire administered at baseline. We used Cox models to compute hazard ratios (HR) for the association between dietary scores (per one standard deviation) and UCC risk. In order to reflect overall adherence to a healthy diet, a metascore was constructed by summing the quintiles of each of the three scores. None of the dietary scores was associated with the risk of UCC overall. A healthier diet was found to be inversely associated with the risk of invasive (MDS: HR = 0.86, 95% CI: 0.74-1.00, metascore: HR = 0.84, 95% CI: 0.71-0.98), but not superficial disease (heterogeneity between subtypes p = 0.04 and p = 0.03, respectively). Results were consistent but weaker for the DII and the AHEI-2010. We found some evidence of effect modification by smoking, in particular for the metascore (Current: HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.58-1.01, Former: HR = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.64-0.92, Never: HR = 1.01, 95% CI: 0.81-1.26, p for heterogeneity = 0.05). A healthy diet may be protective against the risk of invasive, but not superficial, UCC. Promoting healthy dietary habits may help lower the risk of invasive UCC, especially for current and former smokers.

Background Risk of screen-detected breast cancer mostly reflects inherent risk, while risk of interval cancer reflects inherent risk and risk of masking (risk of the tumor not being detected due to increased dense tissue). Therefore the predictors of whether a breast cancer is interval or screen-detected include those that predict masking. Our aim was to investigate the associations between mammographic measures and (1) inherent risk, and (2) masking. Methods We conducted a case-control study nested within the Melbourne collaborative cohort study of 244 screen-detected cases (192 small tumors (

BACKGROUND: Vitamin D, specifically serum 25(OH)D has been associated with mortality, cancer and multiple other health endpoints in observational studies, but there is a paucity of clinical trial evidence sufficient to determine the safety and effectiveness of population-wide supplementation. We have therefore launched the D-Health Trial, a randomized trial of vitamin D supplementation for prevention of mortality and cancer. Here we report the methods and describe the trial cohort. METHODS: The D-Health Trial is a randomized placebo-controlled trial, with planned intervention for 5years and a further 5years of passive follow-up through linkage with health and death registers. Participants aged 65-84years were recruited from the general population of Australia. The intervention is monthly oral doses of 60,000IU of cholecalciferol or matching placebo. The primary outcome is all-cause mortality. Secondary outcomes are total cancer incidence and colorectal cancer incidence. RESULTS: We recruited 21,315 participants to the trial between February 2014 and May 2015. The participants in the two arms of the trial were well-balanced at baseline. Comparison with Australian population statistics shows that the trial participants were less likely to report being in fair or poor health, to be current smokers or to have diabetes than the Australian population. However, the proportion overweight or with health conditions such as arthritis and angina was similar. CONCLUSIONS: Observational data cannot be considered sufficient to support interventions delivered at a population level. Large-scale randomized trials such as the D-Health Trial are needed to inform public health policy and practice.

To investigate prospectively the associations of Dietary Inflammatory Index (DII) and Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS) with lung cancer.We used data from men and women aged 40-69 years at recruitment in 1990-1994, who were participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (n = 35,303). A total of 403 incident lung cancer cases were identified over an average 18-year follow-up. Hazard ratios (HR) were estimated using Cox regression, adjusting for smoking status and other risk factors, with age as the time metric.An inverse correlation was observed between the DII and MDS (ρ = -0.45), consistent with a higher DII being pro-inflammatory and less 'healthy,' while a high MDS reflects a 'healthier' diet. The DII was positively associated with risk of lung cancer in current smokers [HRQ4 vs Q1 = 1.70 (1.02, 2.82); Ptrend = 0.008] (p interaction between DII quartiles and smoking status = 0.03). The MDS was inversely associated with lung cancer risk overall [HR7-9 vs 0-3 = 0.64 (0.45, 0.90); Ptrend = 0.005] and for current smokers (HR7-9 vs 0-3 = 0.38 (0.19, 0.75); Ptrend = 0.005) (p interaction between MDS categories and smoking status = 0.31).The MDS showed an inverse association with lung cancer risk, especially for current smokers. A high DII, indicating a more pro-inflammatory diet, was associated with risk of lung cancer only for current smokers. A healthy diet may reduce the risk of lung cancer, especially in smokers.

To determine whether adiposity assessed by dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) compared to simple anthropometric assessments, are more predictive of abdominal aortic calcification (AAC), a risk factor for atherosclerosis. A cross-sectional study of 312 participants (60.3 % female) aged 70.6 ± 5.6 years was conducted in 2010-2011. AAC was assessed by radiography. Adiposity was estimated for whole body, trunk, android, gynoid and visceral regions using DXA in addition to body mass index (BMI), waist circumference (WC) and waist to hip ratio (WHR). WHR [tertile 1 as reference, OR (95 % CI) for tertile 3: 3.62 (1.35-9.72)] and android to gynoid fat ratio [tertile 3: 2.87 (1.03-8.01)] were independent predictors of AAC severity among men. Positive associations with AAC severity were observed for WC [tertile 1 as reference, OR for tertile 3: 2.46 (1.12-5.41)], % trunk fat mass [tertile 2: 3.26 (1.52-7.03)], % android fat mass [tertile 2: 2.42 (1.13-5.18), tertile 3: 2.20 (1.02-4.73)] and visceral fat area [tertile 2: 2.28 (1.06-4.87), tertile 3: 2.32 (1.01-5.34)] among women. Indices of total body composition, BMI and % body fat mass were not associated with AAC severity in either men or women. Simple anthropometric measures, WHR and WC were the best predictors of AAC severity in men and women respectively, although higher android to gynoid fat ratio and central fat, assessed by DXA, were also predictive of higher risks of AAC severity in men and women respectively. Our findings add to existing evidence that relatively inexpensive and easily obtained anthropometric measures can be clinically useful indicators of atherosclerosis risk.

Aberrant DNA methylation occurs frequently in breast carcinogenesis. Tools for translational epigenetic studies of breast cancer involving formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) human tissues have now been developed. Few studies have measured genome-wide methylation in DNA derived from paraffin-embedded tumour tissues and compared the DNA methylation in corresponding adjacent non-tumour ductal epithelium (ADJNT). These studies are technically challenging due to the spectrum of breast cancer pathologies, the variable suitability of DNA extracted from FFPE material and the difficulties in identifying ADJNT. We assessed the suitability of FFPE breast cancer material for genome-wide DNA methylation assessment of tumour and ADJNT. Twenty-one archival breast tumour tissues with paired ADJNT obtained from separate blocks and at least 2 cm from the tumour were sourced from The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). DNA was prepared from macrodissected tissue samples and assessed for genome-wide methylation using the Infinium HumanMethylation450 Beadchip (HM450K) array. The 1000 most differentially methylated probes between tumour and ADJNT in this FFPE-derived dataset differentiated tumour and ADJNT in The Cancer Genome Atlas Network data (TCGA; derived from high molecular weight DNA using the same HM450K array). Large-scale studies of genome-wide DNA methylation using FFPE breast cancer specimens offer the opportunity to further refine the pathological classification of tumours, to include subtypes that are underrepresented in the TCGA data and provide the capacity to further explore intra-tumoural heterogeneity.