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201. Fire Dynamics in an Emerging Deforestation Frontier in Southwestern Amazonia, Brazil.

Author

Dutra, Débora Joana, Anderson, Liana Oighenstein, Fearnside, Philip Martin, Graça, Paulo Maurício Lima de Alencastro, Yanai, Aurora Miho, Dalagnol, Ricardo, Burton, Chantelle, Jones, Christopher, Betts, Richard, and Aragão, Luiz Eduardo Oliveira e Cruz de

Subjects
DEFORESTATION, FOREST fires, RAINFALL anomalies, FIRE management, FOREST degradation, LAND cover, PRIVATE property, WILDFIRE prevention
Abstract

Land management and deforestation in tropical regions cause wildfires and forest degradation, leading to a loss of ecosystem services and global climate regulation. The objective of the study was to provide a comprehensive assessment of the spatial extent and patterns of burned areas in a new deforestation frontier in the Amazonas state. The methodology applied cross-referenced burned area data from 2003 to 2019 with climate, land cover, private properties and Protected Areas information and performed a series of statistical tests. The influence of the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI) contributed to a decreasing rainfall anomalies trend and increasing temperature anomalies trend. This process intensified the dry season and increased the extent of annual natural vegetation affected by fires, reaching a peak of 681 km2 in 2019. The results showed that the increased deforestation trend occurred mostly in public lands, mainly after the new forest code, leading to an increase in fires from 66 to 84% in 2019. The methods developed here could identify fire extent, trends, and relationship with land cover change and climate, thus pointing to priority areas for preservation. The conclusion presented that policy decisions affecting the Amazon Forest must include estimates of fire risk and impact under current and projected future climates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Published
2023
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214. Proceedings of Thematic Sessions of the Twenty-Ninth Annual Meeting of the Society of Architectural Historians. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, 19-24 May 1976

Author

Overby, Osmund, Koshino, Takeshi, Leedy,, Walter C., Heisner, Beverly, Maass, John, Merrill, David, Bryan, John M., Robinson, Willard B., Tomlan, Michael A., Fitch, James Marston, Hosmer, Charles B., Thompson, Eleanor, Rettig, Robert B., Berkeley, Ellen Perry, Candee, Richard, Rosebrock, Ellen, Glenn, Marsha, Sande, Theodore A., DeLony, Eric N., Eaton, Leonard K., Hildebrand, Grant, Karlowicz, Titus M., Davis, Julia Finette, Roth, Leland M., Richman, Michael, Kihlstedt, Folke T., Hinderliter, Edward T., Ross, Marion D., Bruegmann, Robert, Rhoads, William B., Wilson, Richard Guy, van Zanten, David T., Goeldner, Paul, Bacon, Edmund N., Henry, Jay C., Hines, Thomas S., Schalck, Harry G., Draper, Joan E., Henry, Jean, Anderson, Stanford, Vidler, Anthony, Tzonis, Alexander, MacLeod, Robert, Bletter, Rosemarie Haag, Glassie, Henry, Brunskill, Ronald W., Richman, Irwin, Vlach, John Michael, Marshall, Howard W., Goss, Peter L., Wheaton, Rodd L., Tinkcom, Margaret B., Betts, Richard J., Magaziner, Henry J., Webster, Richard J., Thomas, George E., Teitelman, Edward, Ames, Kenneth L., Trapp, Kenneth R., Miller, R. Craig, Koch, Robert, Menz, Katherine Boyd, Willis, Peter, Belden, Frederick L., Beiswanger, William, Hammond, Charles A., and Cantor, Jay

Published
1976
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216. Proceedings of Thematic Sessions of the Twenty-Eighth Annual Meeting of the Society of Architectural Historians

Author

Massey, James C., Overby, Osmund, Dickey, John M., Reeves, F. Blair, DeLony, Eric N., Shepherd,, Raymond V., Downing, Antoinette F., Hotchkiss, Horace, House, Corbit-Sharp, House, Wilson-Warner, Gorr, Louis F., Schlereth, Thomas J., Richman, Irwin, Cotter, John L., Celoria, Miguel, Cosans, Elisabeth, Moran, Geoffrey P., Frank, Richard C., Fry, Bruce W., Kelso, William M., Graham, Roy Eugene, Carson, Cary, Milner, John D., Peterson, Charles E., Friary, Donald R., Moss,, Roger W., Stevens, John R., Candee, Richard M., Miller, Amelia F., Glassie,, Henry, Owens, Christopher, Heckscher, Morrison H., Garvan, Beatrice B., Garvin, James L., Mooz, R. Peter, Schless, Nancy Halverson, Wheaton, Rodd L., Crouch, Dora P., Garr, Daniel, Robinson, Willard B., Brown, Elizabeth M., Sears, Joan N., de Montêquin, François-Auguste, Reps, John, Pierson,, William H., Creese, Walter L., Floyd, Margaret Henderson, Tucci, Douglass S., Smith, Margaret S., MacDougall, Elisabeth B., Bruno, Claudia Lazzaro, Lowry, Bates, Morawinska, Agnieszka, Wiebenson, Dora L., Betts, Richard J., Senkevitch,, Anatole, White, Charles W., Evenson, Norma, and Stamm, Gunther

Published
1975
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235. Mechanisms and impacts of climate tipping elements

Author

Wang, Seaver, primary, Foster, Adrianna, additional, Lenz, Elizabeth A, additional, Kessler, John D., additional, Stroeve, Julienne Christine, additional, Anderson, Liana O., additional, Turetsky, Merritt, additional, Betts, Richard, additional, ZOU, Sijia, additional, Liu, Wei, additional, Boos, William R., additional, and Hausfather, Zeke, additional

Published
2021
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239. South American fires and their impacts on ecosystems increase with continued emissions

Author

Burton, Chantelle, Kelley, Douglas I., Jones, Chris D., Betts, Richard A., Cardoso, Manoel, Anderson, Liana, Burton, Chantelle, Kelley, Douglas I., Jones, Chris D., Betts, Richard A., Cardoso, Manoel, and Anderson, Liana

Abstract

Unprecedented fire events in recent years are leading to a demand for improved understanding of how climate change is already affecting fires, and how this could change in the future. Increased fire activity in South America is one of the most concerning of all the recent events, given the potential impacts on local ecosystems and the global climate from the loss of large carbon stores under future socio-environmental change. However, due to the complexity of interactions and feedbacks, and lack of complete representation of fire biogeochemistry in many climate models, there is currently low agreement on whether climate change will cause fires to become more or less frequent in the future, and what impact this will have on ecosystems. Here we use the latest climate simulations from the UK Earth System Model UKESM1 to understand feedbacks in fire, dynamic vegetation, and terrestrial carbon stores using the JULES land surface model, taking into account future scenarios of change in emissions and land use. Based on evaluation of model performance for the present day, we address the specific policy-relevant question: how much fire-induced carbon loss will there be over South America at different global warming levels in the future? We find that burned area and fire emissions are projected to increase in the future due to hotter and drier conditions, which leads to large reductions in carbon storage, especially when combined with increasing land-use conversion. The model simulates a 30% loss of carbon at 4°C under the highest emission scenario, which could be reduced to 7% if temperature rise is limited to 1.5°C. Our results provide a critical assessment of ecosystem resilience under future climate change, and could inform the way fire and land-use is managed in the future to reduce the most deleterious impacts of climate change.

Published
2021

240. Regional disparities and seasonal differences in climate risk to rice labour

Author

Simpson, Charles, Hosking, J. Scott, Mitchell, Dann, Betts, Richard A., Shuckburgh, Emily, Simpson, Charles, Hosking, J. Scott, Mitchell, Dann, Betts, Richard A., and Shuckburgh, Emily

Abstract

The 880 million agricultural workers of the world are especially vulnerable to increasing heat stress due to climate change, affecting the health of individuals and reducing labour productivity. In this study, we focus on rice harvests across Asia and estimate the future impact on labour productivity by considering changes in climate at the time of the annual harvest. During these specific times of the year, heat stress is often high compared to the rest of the year. Examining climate simulations of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6), we identified that labour productivity metrics for the rice harvest, based on local wet-bulb globe temperature, are strongly correlated with global mean near-surface air temperature in the long term (p ≪ 0.01, R 2 > 0.98 in all models). Limiting global warming to 1.5 °C rather than 2.0 °C prevents a clear reduction in labour capacity of 1% across all Asia and 2% across Southeast Asia, affecting the livelihoods of around 100 million people. Due to differences in mechanization between and within countries, we find that rice labour is especially vulnerable in Indonesia, the Philippines, Bangladesh, and the Indian states of West Bengal and Kerala. Our results highlight the regional disparities and importance in considering seasonal differences in the estimation of the effect of climate change on labour productivity and occupational heat-stress.

Published
2021

241. Natural environment and assets [Chapter 3]

Author

Betts, R.A., Haward, A.B., Pearson, K.V., Berry, Pam, Brown, Iain, Betts, Richard, Falloon, Pete, Hemming, Debbie, Morecroft, Mike, Thackeray, Stephen, Topp, Kairsty, Watkiss, Paul, Betts, R.A., Haward, A.B., Pearson, K.V., Berry, Pam, Brown, Iain, Betts, Richard, Falloon, Pete, Hemming, Debbie, Morecroft, Mike, Thackeray, Stephen, Topp, Kairsty, and Watkiss, Paul

Abstract

Prepared for the Climate Change Committee, London. This chapter assesses the climate-related risks and opportunities for the UK’s natural environment in support of the third UK climate change risk assessment (CCRA3).

Published
2021

242. Development of regional future climate change scenarios in South America using the Eta CPTEC/HadCM3 climate change projections: climatology and regional analyses for the Amazon, São Francisco and the Paraná River basins

Author

Marengo, Jose A., Chou, Sin Chan, Kay, Gillian, Alves, Lincoln M., Pesquero, José F., Soares, Wagner R., Santos, Daniel C., Lyra, André A., Sueiro, Gustavo, Betts, Richard, Chagas, Diego J., Gomes, Jorge L., Bustamante, Josiane F., and Tavares, Priscila

Published
2012
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249. Increasing risk of Amazonian drought due to decreasing aerosol pollution

Author

Cox, Peter M., Harris, Phil P., Huntingford, Chris, Betts, Richard A., Collins, Matthew, Jones, Chris D., Jupp, Tim E., Marengo, Jose A., and Nobre, Carlos A.

Subjects
Amazon River region -- Environmental aspects, Aerosol products -- Environmental aspects -- Evaluation, Drought forecasting -- Evaluation -- Environmental aspects -- Forecasts and trends, Air pollution -- Forecasts and trends -- Environmental aspects, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation, Market trend/market analysis, Evaluation, Environmental aspects, Forecasts and trends
Abstract

The Amazon rainforest plays a crucial role in the climate system, helping to drive atmospheric circulations in the tropics by absorbing energy and recycling about half of the rainfall that [...]

Published
2008

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