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An emerging view from a broad array of fields is that there should be greater use of evaluations of public policies in general, and the use of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), where feasible, in particular to test the effectiveness of new policies for which there is limited or no evidence about their likely impact. This is because of the potential for RCTs to provide reliable estimates of the causal impacts of the policy being trialled and considered for wider application. There is less evidence, however, on the level of support for such trials as a tool for policy among the general population. In this paper, we provide a summary of an online survey experiment that tested the level of support, and factors associated with support, for policy trials, and RCTs in particular. We found that about half the population supported a trial for a (hypothetical) policy intervention as opposed to introducing the policy to everyone at once. However, only around one-fifth of the population supported implementation of that trial through random assignment. We also found that (randomly assigned) policy area, support from experts for the policy, and party background of the policy instigator had large and significant associations with the level of public support for trials. We conclude that experts and policy makers who support trials in general and RCTs in particular need to engage with the community to explain the benefits, and to learn from community concerns.

As response rates to surveys decline all over the world, researchers are increasingly turning to sampling frames that are easier and cheaper to reach, and that have more predictable response rates. These include nonprobability web panels (NWPs) and probability web panels (PWPs). Although generally more expensive to construct, the latter have been shown in many instances to suffer from fewer biases and deviation from benchmarks. The literature comparing NWPs with PWPs is fedgling. We add to this research area by comparing measures of the social determinants of health that were estimated from a number of NWPs and PWP equivalents with a high-quality benchmark. The analysis finds that, when looking at the distributions of self- assessed health and life satisfaction, probability panels differ less from the gold standard than do nonprobability panels. This supports previous work, although we also show that this conclusion holds when a greater range of control variables is included in the model. However, some of the predictors of health are captured better using the nonprobability panels. In particular, the relationship between area-level disadvantage and health is better captured through a pooled nonprobability sample.

The Closing the Gap targets feature heavily in the current policy measurement framework for Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Australians at both the national and state/territory levels. The targets provide concrete measures against which trends in changes in outcomes for the Indigenous population relative to those for the non-Indigenous population can be assessed. Although relative outcomes for the Indigenous population have improved for some of the targets, overall there has been a failure to achieve virtually all of the targets. There are also concerns that the Closing the Gap measures are resulting in an overly negative assessment of progress in improving outcomes for Indigenous Australians, and that they entrench a ‘deficits’ view of the Indigenous population. The aim of this paper is to provide helpful information to consider when assessing alternative frameworks for measuring and targeting success. We consider how to define success for Indigenous individuals, families and communities; what are the key determinants of success for Indigenous Australians; what are some of the areas of success within the seven target areas and more broadly; and what are the implications for frameworks for measuring success.

Data from the 2016 Census show that Indigenous youth (aged 15-29 years) are less likely to be employed or studying than their non-Indigenous counterparts. The employment gap between Indigenous and non-Indigenous youth increases in the years immediately following the end of compulsory schooling, and continues to widen into the 20s. Indigenous youth are also more likely to work in part-time, casual and unskilled jobs than non-Indigenous youth. The situation for young Indigenous women is markedly worse than for men, even though educational participation and attainment are similar. These early labour market experiences are likely to have both immediate and ongoing effects, reducing income and wealth accumulation, and impeding future labour market success. However, there are signs of improvement in the labour market situation for Indigenous youth, particularly in nonremote areas. Between 2011 and 2016, increases in educational participation and employment saw fewer Indigenous youth disengaged from work and study. Growing educational attainment is likely to further improve employment rates because Indigenous youth who have completed Year 12 have far better outcomes in the labour market than early school leavers.

Indigenous people tend to live in different parts of Australian towns and cities than the non-Indigenous population. This is due to a combination of historic and contemporary government policies, the agency of Indigenous people, and the constraints placed on residential location by the interaction of the housing and labour markets. This study traces the trajectory of Indigenous residential segregation in 60 Australian towns and cities, using census data from 1976 to 2016. Segregation is measured using the index of dissimilarity and the threshold method. Indigenous residential segregation has been declining steadily since 1976 nationally. However, there has been a great deal of variation in segregation trajectories among towns and cities. In Sydney and Melbourne, segregation remained relatively high over the study period. The level of segregation in 1976 appears to be related to the geographical remoteness of the town, with remote towns generally having lower levels of segregation in 1976. Segregation has been decreasing most rapidly in regional towns in New South Wales and Queensland. Finally, this study has found a long-run increase in the proportion of Indigenous residents living in highly Indigenous neighbourhoods, consistent with the increasingly close settlement of Indigenous people in Australian towns and cities. This trend is at odds with the apparent decrease in segregation found when segregation is measured using the index of dissimilarity. Detailed case studies may be required that examine how concrete historical geographies and policy legacies combine with contemporary housing markets to produce the configuration of segregation that we see today.

Despite a comparatively ‘flat’ social structure and lack of obvious class-based cleavages, Australian society is stratified by objective, multidimensional measures of social class. Using data from a July 2015 survey of a random sample of Australian citizens, latent class analysis identifies six class types in Australian society, based on the distributions of cultural, social, and economic capital among respondents. The resulting classes are categorised as ‘precariat’, ‘ageing workers’, ‘new workers’, ‘mobile middle’, ‘emerging affluent’, and ‘established affluent’. The precariat is characterised by high numbers of retired pensioners, the ageing worker class the highest mean age, and the new worker class by its low rate of unemployment. The established middle class accounts for one quarter of the adult population, while the emergent affluent class has the youngest mean age, and the established affluent is the most advantaged. We also show Australians are acutely aware of their class identity.

With affordable houses increasingly out of reach, wage growth slow and household debt high, Australians are certainly feeling poor. But how do they compare to their neighbours? New Census data confirms there’s a lot of variability in income.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people have a complicated history with the Australian census. Until the 1967 referendum, the question about Indigenous status was used mainly to exclude the Indigenous population from official population statistics, as required by the Constitution at that time. Since the 1971 Census, however, the question has been used to understand Indigenous demographic and socioeconomic outcomes. This includes observing how Indigenous peoples’ situations are changing through time, and comparing them to the non-Indigenous population. Indigenous population estimates matter for policymaking. For example, the Commonwealth Grants Commission uses estimates of the Indigenous population to advise on GST revenue allocation to the states and territories. And many Closing the Gap targets are monitored in full or in part using census data. At the same time, many Indigenous communities and organisations argue that the way data are collected and distributed takes power out of their hands, and puts them at a disadvantage. So, what did we learn from the most recent release of 2016 Census data?

An ABC report that Australian churches are not only “failing to sufficiently address domestic violence, it is both enabling and concealing it” has generated an outpouring of responses. Many church and Christian leaders, as well as abuse survivors and their advocates, have praised the highlighting that Christians are not immune from domestic violence, churches are often ill-equipped to respond, and they have done so in ways that perpetuate – rather than relieve – harm. But others have condemned the report as “selective”, “inaccurate”, and part of a broader “war on Christianity”. So what do the data and evidence actually say?

This report uses data from national health and social surveys of the Indigenous population, conducted between 2002 and 2012-13, to examine whether associations of some key social determinants with selected health and wellbeing outcomes changed over that time. Consistently during the decade, employment status and housing tenure were significantly associated with a range of health and wellbeing outcomes for the Indigenous population. As education levels have increased among the Indigenous population, the association of education with health and wellbeing has weakened. This suggests that at least some of the association of education with health and wellbeing is attributable to other characteristics of individuals or educational institutions not captured in our models, not just the outcome of the education process itself. Improvements in some health and wellbeing outcomes in remote areas, despite declining employment over the decade, suggest that more detailed analysis is required to shed light on whether associations between the selected social determinants of health and wellbeing differ for Indigenous people living in remote and nonremote areas.

This report examines trends in participation in vocational education and training, and attainment of vocational qualifications, among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people during 2002–15. The report also investigates whether Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people with a higher-level vocational qualification are more likely to subsequently gain employment than those with a lower-level vocational qualification. Our analysis uses data from the Australian Census of Population and Housing, and the Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset; national social surveys of the Indigenous population conducted in 2002, 2008 and 2014–15; and annual vocational education and training statistics produced from administrative collections and related surveys managed by the National Centre for Vocational Education Research. The percentage of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people aged 15–64 years who had a Certificate III or higher-level qualification increased substantially from 15% in 2002 to 34% in 2014–15. Most of the increase occurred at the Certificate III or IV level; among Indigenous women aged 15–64 years, the percentage with a qualification at this level more than tripled from 6% in 2002 to 22% in 2014–15. Our analyses confirm that, among the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population, those with any level of education beyond compulsory schooling are more likely to subsequently gain employment than those without a post-school qualification. There is weak evidence to suggest that, in major cities, having a higher-level vocational qualification confers an employment advantage compared with lower-level vocational qualifications (after controlling for other observable characteristics), perhaps reflecting both the higher demand for, and supply of, skilled labour in metropolitan areas. In contrast, in regional areas, there is no significant difference between the employment outcomes of those with higher-level vocational qualifications and those with lower-level

One of the major changes in Indigenous policy over the past decade and a half is the systematic reporting by government of socioeconomic and other outcomes of the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander population. Much, although not all, of this reporting makes comparisons with the non-Indigenous population. An increasing body of literature, however, cautions against using a 'deficits approach' to Indigenous statistics and data. One concept that focuses explicitly on strengths and resilience that has been adapted to the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander context is that of 'community functioning'. In the most recent Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander Health Performance Framework, this was defined as the ability and freedom of community members and communities to determine the context of their lives (e.g. social, cultural, spiritual, organisational) and to translate their capability (knowledge, skills, understanding) into action (to make things happen and achieve a life they value). Building on this definition and previous analysis, this paper has four main aims: to identify a subset of community functioning measures and develop an index or set of indices; to analyse the distribution of community functioning by remoteness, sex and age; to analyse the factors associated with community functioning; and to analyse the relationship between community functioning and individual-level outcomes, recognising that community functioning is likely to be a predictor of important outcomes, as well as a key set of outcomes itself. One of the main findings from the analysis is that those with high levels of all three measures of community functioning (connectedness, resilience and safety) were more likely to be satisfied with their life, more likely to report that they were a happy person all or most of the time, and less likely to report that they felt so sad that nothing could cheer them up.

The analysis presented in this report shows that, among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people, better outcomes for socioeconomic indicators such as employment, education and income are positively associated with participation in arts and cultural expression. There is also strong evidence that those who participate in arts and cultural activities are more likely to have higher levels of subjective wellbeing. Notions of 'cultural participation' and 'wellbeing' are complex and multidimensional, and further research is needed to distinguish between selection effects - whereby individuals with more resources or higher wellbeing levels are more likely to participate in arts and cultural activities - and the benefits to individual wellbeing resulting from arts and cultural participation.

This paper uses data from the National Assessment Program, Literacy and Numeracy (NAPLAN) to document the distribution of Indigenous students across Australian schools, as well as some of the potential effects of that distribution on literacy and numeracy outcomes. The results show three main things: the Indigenous population is not evenly distributed across schools, with high rates of school segregation; using a school fixed effects model, it appears that the characteristics of schools matter in explaining change through time in Indigenous outcomes; and the distribution of Indigenous students across different schools explains some, but not all, of the difference between Indigenous and non-Indigenous students in literacy and numeracy. A key policy finding from the analysis is that the school system seems to matter. Growth through time of literacy and numeracy for Indigenous students is lowest in New South Wales, the Australian Capital Territory and the Northern Territory.

The aim of this paper is to provide an overview of the changing size and spatial distribution of the Indigenous population of Australia, comparing the results of the 2011 and 2016 censuses. The paper summarises five key aspects of the intercensal change: - the growth in the estimated population of Indigenous Australians - the changing geographic distribution of Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people - the growth in the number of census records with indeterminate Indigenous status - the spatial mismatch between demographic projections from the 2011 Census and 2016 Census counts - the potential for identification change to confound changes in socioeconomic outcomes. We show that the Indigenous population grew rapidly between 2011 and 2016, reaching around 3.3% of the total population estimate, or 798 381 people. This was most likely due to a combination of natural increase and changing patterns of identification. Both aspects of growth were concentrated in more urban parts of the country, especially coastal New South Wales and southeast Queensland. We suggest that care needs to be taken when interpreting Indigenous population change between 2011 and 2016, because of both unexplained population growth and a substantial increase in the number of census records with no answer to the Indigenous status question. In particular, we suggest that identification change may lead to an apparent convergence in the outcomes between the observed Indigenous and observed non-Indigenous populations through time, without there necessarily being any improvement in the life circumstances of individual Indigenous Australians.

Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) Australians are significantly and substantially less likely to be attending school on a given day than their non-Indigenous counterparts. This has been shown to have long-term consequences for the development of the mainstream literacy and numeracy skills associated with formal schooling, as well as later school and employment outcomes. Reducing this gap is a key focus of government education policy within Australia. Hampering the design of effective policy, however, is the lack of a robust empirical and theoretical framework to explain school (non-)attendance that not only builds on existing research, but also reflects the specific circumstances and aspirations of Indigenous students and their families. This article applies mixed-methods quantitative and qualitative techniques to explore what Indigenous student (non-)attendance in Australia might tell us regarding the relationship between highly marginalised student groups and formal education systems. A robust understanding of these geographically and socio-culturally situated school (non-)attendance patterns and processes allows us to build on and contribute to human capital, critical, resistance, and other behavioural theories of formal education and draw parallels for other population sub-groups globally, especially those that display ongoing patterns of high geographic mobility. Our analysis suggests that absenteeism amongst marginalised and/or highly mobile populations, may be most usefully conceived of as a manifestation of structural incompatibilities between formal schooling systems and the life projects and circumstances of these school-aged children and their families.

This paper reviews literature related to the intersectionality of gender and educational attainment, with a special focus on the circumstances surrounding the Australian Indigenous population. Using two sources of data, the Longitudinal Surveys of Australian Youth (LSAY) and the Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA), we conducted difference-in-difference analyses to better understand differences by gender between the non-Indigenous and the Indigenous in school attendance, school persistence and test scores. Gender differences across the outcomes analysed were generally larger for the Indigenous than for the non-Indigenous. Specifically, relative to Indigenous males, Indigenous females were more likely to achieve higher test scores, to complete Year 12 and to attend school. Our results highlight how implementing policies that recognise that Indigenous males and females often require support in different areas and through different means will be better suited to improve educational outcomes.

Despite some success in recruiting Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to the Australian Public Service (APS), the long-term trend is one of declining representation. A fundamental issue is that rates of separation among Indigenous public servants remain consistently greater than those of their non-Indigenous counterparts. The research presented here seeks to understand the reasons Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander employees opt to leave the APS. Drawing on the analysis of existing datasets, and original interviews with former and current APS employees, the findings presented here offer insights into the key factors involved in APS employment. The paper also raises important implications for strategies that aim to increase rates of Indigenous employment in the APS.

This report uses the recently released Australian Census Longitudinal Dataset to examine transitions into and out of home ownership from 2006 to 2011 among the Indigenous population. Although home ownership may not fit with everyone's aspirations and circumstances, analysis previously undertaken by the Centre for Aboriginal Economic Policy Research identified that Indigenous adults and children who lived in a home that was owned or being purchased by the household had improved outcomes across a range of wellbeing measures. This report shows that, for the Indigenous population, higher levels of income and education were positively associated with the transition into home ownership, after controlling for a range of other characteristics. Those living in a private rental in 2006 were more likely to become an owner/purchaser in 2011 than those in community rental. A key finding is that Indigenous adults living in regional areas who were not home owners or purchasers in 2006 were no more likely than those living in major cities to have moved into home ownership by 2011. In contrast, in the Australian adult population as a whole, those living in regional areas were significantly more likely than those living in major cities to move into home ownership between 2006 and 2011. Given that around 40% of the Indigenous population lives in regional areas this finding merits further investigation.

The existence of a healthy immigrant effect—where immigrants are on average healthier than the native born—is a widely cited phenomenon across a multitude of literatures including epidemiology and the social sciences. There are many competing explanations. The goals of this paper are twofold: first, to provide further evidence on the presence of the healthy immigrant effect across source and destination country using a set of consistently defined measures of health; and second, to evaluate the role of selectivity as a potential explanation for the existence of the phenomenon. Utilizing data from four major immigrant recipient countries, USA, Canada, UK, and Australia allows us to compare the health of migrants from each with the respective native born who choose not to migrate. This represents a much more appropriate counterfactual than the native born of the immigrant recipient country and yields new insights into the importance of observable selection effects. The analysis finds strong support for the healthy immigrant effect across all four destination countries and that selectivity plays an important role in the observed better health of migrants vis a vis those who stay behind in their country of origin.

In this paper, a model is developed to project interregional migration flows for the Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander (Indigenous) populations in Australia at the state and territory level by age and sex. Migration flow data, obtained from the three most recent Australian quinary censuses (2001, 2006 and 2011), are first assessed and analysed in comparison with the patterns of the corresponding non-Indigenous population. Log-linear models are used to identify the key structures and patterns over time. A model is then developed to project the migration flows by origin, destination, age and sex forward in 5-year increments to 2031. This includes incorporating techniques to overcome the small number cell issues associated with the very small population size of the Indigenous population. The results of this research provide (i) insights into the different migration patterns of an important but disadvantaged minority population in Australia and (ii) inputs for a dynamic multiregional model of Indigenous population change.