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Use of fecal indicator bacteria (FIB) for monitoring beach water quality is based on their co-occurrence with human pathogens, a relationship that can be dramatically altered by fate and transport processes after leaving the human intestine. We conducted a prospective cohort study at Avalon Beach, California (USA), where the indicator relationship is potentially affected by the discharge of sewage-contaminated groundwater and by solar radiation levels at this shallow, relatively quiescent beach. The goals of this study were to determine: 1) if swimmers exposed to marine water were at higher risk of illness than non-swimmers; 2) if FIB measured in marine water were associated with swimmer illness, and; 3) if the associations between FIB and swimmer health were modified by either submarine groundwater discharge or solar radiation levels. There were 7317 individuals recruited during the summers of 2007-08, 6165 (84%) of whom completed follow-up within two weeks of the beach visit. A total of 703 water quality samples were collected across multiple sites and time periods during recruitment days and analyzed for FIB using both culture-based and molecular methods. Adjusted odds ratios (AOR) indicated that swimmers who swallowed water were more likely to experience Gastrointestinal Illness (GI Illness) within three days of their beach visit than non-swimmers, and that this risk was significantly elevated when either submarine groundwater discharge was high (AOR [95% CI]:2.18 [1.22-3.89]) or solar radiation was low (2.45 [1.25-4.79]). The risk of GI Illness was not significantly elevated for swimmers who swallowed water when groundwater discharge was low or solar radiation was high. Associations between GI Illness incidence and FIB levels (Enterococcus EPA Method 1600) among swimmers who swallowed water were not significant when we did not account for groundwater discharge, but were strongly associated when groundwater discharge was high (1.85 [1.06, 3.23]) compared to when it was low (0.77 [0.42, 1.42]; test of interaction: P = 0.03). These results demonstrate the need to account for local environmental conditions when monitoring for, and making decisions about, public health at recreational beaches. The views expressed in this article are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views or policies of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency.

Complier average causal effects (CACE) estimate the impact of an intervention among treatment compliers in randomized trials. Methods used to estimate CACE have been outlined for parallel-arm trials (e.g., using an instrumental variables (IV) estimator) but not for other randomized study designs. Here, we propose a method for estimating CACE in randomized stepped wedge trials, where experimental units cross over from control conditions to intervention conditions in a randomized sequence. We illustrate the approach with a cluster-randomized drinking water trial conducted in rural Mexico from 2009 to 2011. Additionally, we evaluated the plausibility of assumptions required to estimate CACE using the IV approach, which are testable in stepped wedge trials but not in parallel-arm trials. We observed small increases in the magnitude of CACE risk differences compared with intention-to-treat estimates for drinking water contamination (risk difference (RD) = -22% (95% confidence interval (CI): -33, -11) vs. RD = -19% (95% CI: -26, -12)) and diarrhea (RD = -0.8% (95% CI: -2.1, 0.4) vs. RD = -0.1% (95% CI: -1.1, 0.9)). Assumptions required for IV analysis were probably violated. Stepped wedge trials allow investigators to estimate CACE with an approach that avoids the stronger assumptions required for CACE estimation in parallel-arm trials. Inclusion of CACE estimates in stepped wedge trials with imperfect compliance could enhance reporting and interpretation of the results of such trials.

BackgroundEfforts to monitor malaria transmission increasingly use cross-sectional surveys to estimate transmission intensity from seroprevalence data using malarial antibodies. To date, seroconversion rates estimated from cross-sectional surveys have not been compared to rates estimated in prospective cohorts. Our objective was to compare seroconversion rates estimated in a prospective cohort with those from a cross-sectional survey in a low-transmission population.Methods and findingsThe analysis included two studies from Haiti: a prospective cohort of 142 children ages ≤ 11 years followed for up to 9 years, and a concurrent cross-sectional survey of 383 individuals ages 0-90 years old. From all individuals, we analyzed 1,154 blood spot specimens for the malaria antibody MSP-1(19) using a multiplex bead antigen assay. We classified individuals as positive for malaria using a cutoff derived from the mean plus 3 standard deviations in antibody responses from a negative control set of unexposed individuals. We estimated prospective seroconversion rates from the longitudinal cohort based on 13 incident seroconversions among 646 person-years at risk. We also estimated seroconversion rates from the cross-sectional survey using a reversible catalytic model fit with maximum likelihood. We found the two approaches provided consistent results: the seroconversion rate for ages ≤ 11 years was 0.020 (0.010, 0.032) estimated prospectively versus 0.023 (0.001, 0.052) in the cross-sectional survey.ConclusionsThe estimation of seroconversion rates using cross-sectional data is a widespread and generalizable problem for many infectious diseases that can be measured using antibody titers. The consistency between these two estimates lends credibility to model-based estimates of malaria seroconversion rates using cross-sectional surveys. This study also demonstrates the utility of including malaria antibody measures in multiplex assays alongside targets for vaccine coverage and other neglected tropical diseases, which together could comprise an integrated, large-scale serological surveillance platform.

Many diarrhea-causing pathogens are climate-sensitive, and populations with the lowest socioeconomic position (SEP) are often most vulnerable to climate-related transmission. Household Water, Sanitation, and Handwashing (WASH) interventions constitute one potential effective strategy to reduce child diarrhea, especially among low-income households. Capitalizing on a cluster randomized trial population (360 clusters, 4941 children with 8440 measurements) in rural Bangladesh, one of the world's most climate-sensitive regions, we show that improved WASH substantially reduces diarrhea risk with largest benefits among children with lowest SEP and during the monsoon season. We extrapolated trial results to rural Bangladesh regions using high-resolution geospatial layers to identify areas most likely to benefit. Scaling up a similar intervention could prevent an estimated 734 (95% CI 385, 1085) cases per 1000 children per month during the seasonal monsoon, with marked regional heterogeneities. Here, we show how to extend large-scale trials to inform WASH strategies among climate-sensitive and low-income populations. Household water, sanitation, and handwashing (WASH) interventions can reduce diarrhoea-related morbidity in young children. Here, the authors report findings from a pre-specified secondary analysis of a cluster-randomised trial assessing how WASH impacts vary by socioeconomic position and season. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Key Points: Question: Does twice-annual mass azithromycin distribution prevent all-cause childhood mortality among children in Burkina Faso aged 1 to 59 months in the setting of seasonal malaria chemoprevention distribution? Findings: In this randomized trial of twice-yearly mass azithromycin distribution, 498 deaths were recorded over 60 592 person-years (8.2 deaths/1000 person-years) in the azithromycin group compared with 588 deaths over 58 547 person-years (10.0 deaths/1000 person-years) in the placebo group. The difference was not statistically significant. Meaning: Communities with mass azithromycin distribution had lower child mortality than controls, although the difference was not statistically significant. The study may have been underpowered to detect a clinically relevant difference. Importance: Repeated mass distribution of azithromycin has been shown to reduce childhood mortality by 14% in sub-Saharan Africa. However, the estimated effect varied by location, suggesting that the intervention may not be effective in different geographical areas, time periods, or conditions. Objective: To evaluate the efficacy of twice-yearly azithromycin to reduce mortality in children in the presence of seasonal malaria chemoprevention. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cluster randomized placebo-controlled trial evaluating the efficacy of single-dose azithromycin for prevention of all-cause childhood mortality included 341 communities in the Nouna district in rural northwestern Burkina Faso. Participants were children aged 1 to 59 months living in the study communities. Interventions: Communities were randomized in a 1:1 ratio to receive oral azithromycin or placebo distribution. Children aged 1 to 59 months were offered single-dose treatment twice yearly for 3 years (6 distributions) from August 2019 to February 2023. Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause childhood mortality, measured during a twice-yearly enumerative census. Results: A total of 34 399 children (mean [SD] age, 25.2 [18] months) in the azithromycin group and 33 847 children (mean [SD] age, 25.6 [18] months) in the placebo group were included. A mean (SD) of 90.1% (16.0%) of the censused children received the scheduled study drug in the azithromycin group and 89.8% (17.1%) received the scheduled study drug in the placebo group. In the azithromycin group, 498 deaths were recorded over 60 592 person-years (8.2 deaths/1000 person-years). In the placebo group, 588 deaths were recorded over 58 547 person-years (10.0 deaths/1000 person-years). The incidence rate ratio for mortality was 0.82 (95% CI, 0.67-1.02; P =.07) in the azithromycin group compared with the placebo group. The incidence rate ratio was 0.99 (95% CI, 0.72-1.36) in those aged 1 to 11 months, 0.92 (95% CI, 0.67-1.27) in those aged 12 to 23 months, and 0.73 (95% CI, 0.57-0.94) in those aged 24 to 59 months. Conclusions and Relevance: Mortality in children (aged 1-59 months) was lower with biannual mass azithromycin distribution in a setting in which seasonal malaria chemoprevention was also being distributed, but the difference was not statistically significant. The study may have been underpowered to detect a clinically relevant difference. Trial Registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03676764 This cluster randomized placebo-controlled trial examines the efficacy of single-dose azithromycin for prevention of all-cause childhood mortality in rural Burkina Faso. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Antibiotic use during early infancy has been linked to childhood obesity in high-income countries. We evaluated whether a single oral dose of azithromycin administered during infant-well visits led to changes in infant growth outcomes at 6 months of age in a setting with a high prevalence of undernutrition in rural Burkina Faso. Methods and findings: Infants were enrolled from September 25, 2019, until October 22, 2022, in a randomized controlled trial designed to evaluate the efficacy of a single oral dose of azithromycin (20 mg/kg) compared to placebo when administered during well-child visits for prevention of infant mortality. The trial found no evidence of a difference in the primary endpoint. This paper presents prespecified secondary anthropometric endpoints including weight gain (g/day), height change (mm/day), weight-for-age Z-score (WAZ), weight-for-length Z-score (WLZ), length-for-age Z-score (LAZ), and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC). Infants were eligible for the trial if they were between 5 and 12 weeks of age, able to orally feed, and their families were planning to remain in the study area for the duration of the study. Anthropometric measurements were collected at enrollment (5 to 12 weeks of age) and 6 months of age. Among 32,877 infants enrolled in the trial, 27,298 (83%) were followed and had valid anthropometric measurements at 6 months of age. We found no evidence of a difference in weight gain (mean difference 0.03 g/day, 95% confidence interval (CI) −0.12 to 0.18), height change (mean difference 0.004 mm/day, 95% CI −0.05 to 0.06), WAZ (mean difference −0.004 SD, 95% CI −0.03 to 0.02), WLZ (mean difference 0.001 SD, 95% CI −0.03 to 0.03), LAZ (mean difference −0.005 SD, 95% CI −0.03 to 0.02), or MUAC (mean difference 0.01 cm, 95% CI −0.01 to 0.04). The primary limitation of the trial was that measurements were only collected at enrollment and 6 months of age, precluding assessment of shorter-term or long-term changes in growth. Conclusions: Single-dose azithromycin does not appear to affect weight and height outcomes when administered during early infancy. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.govNCT03676764 Ali Sié and colleagues present pre-specified anthropometric outcomes from a randomized controlled trial that assessed the impact of a single-dose of oral azithromycin on infant mortality in Burkina Faso. Author summary: Why was this study done?: Antibiotics have been linked to obesity in children in nonrandomized studies in high-income settings. In low-income settings, malnutrition is a strong risk factor for child mortality, and interventions that increase weight gain may be beneficial. Single-dose azithromycin has previously been shown to reduce child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa, and it is possible that some of this effect is via weight gain. Why did the researchers do and find?: We conducted a randomized controlled trial in which infants aged 5 to 12 weeks were randomly assigned to a single dose of azithromycin or a matching placebo. The primary outcome of the parent trial was all-cause mortality, and the trial found no evidence of a benefit of azithromycin for prevention of mortality. Infants were followed until 6 months of age and had anthropometric measurements, including height, weight, and mid-upper arm circumference, collected. We found no evidence of a difference in any anthropometric endpoint in infants randomized to azithromycin compared to placebo. What do these findings mean?: Single-dose azithromycin does not appear to affect growth when administered to healthy infants who are 5 to 12 weeks of age. Growth outcomes were only measured at 6 months of age, and thus, any shorter or longer-term effects of azithromycin would not be detected by this study. This study only considered a single dose of azithromycin, as is used for prevention of child mortality and trachoma, and thus, it is possible that higher doses or longer duration of antibiotics could have a different effects on child growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

BackgroundStudies of health risks associated with recreational water exposure require investigators to make choices about water quality indicator averaging techniques, exposure definitions, follow-up periods, and model specifications; however, investigators seldom describe the impact of these choices on reported results. Our objectives are to report illness risk from swimming at a marine beach affected by nonpoint sources of urban runoff, measure associations between fecal indicator bacteria levels and subsequent illness among swimmers, and investigate the sensitivity of results to a range of exposure and outcome definitions.MethodsIn 2009, we enrolled 5674 people in a prospective cohort at Malibu Beach, a coastal marine beach in California, and measured daily health symptoms 10-19 days later. Concurrent water quality samples were analyzed for indicator bacteria using culture and molecular methods. We compared illness risk between nonswimmers and swimmers, and among swimmers exposed to various levels of fecal indicator bacteria.ResultsDiarrhea was more common among swimmers than nonswimmers (adjusted odds ratio = 1.88 [95% confidence interval = 1.09-3.24]) within 3 days of the beach visit. Water quality was generally good (fecal indicator bacteria levels exceeded water quality guidelines for only 7% of study samples). Fecal indicator bacteria levels were not consistently associated with swimmer illness. Sensitivity analyses demonstrated that overall inference was not substantially affected by the choice of exposure and outcome definitions.ConclusionsThis study suggests that the 3 days following a beach visit may be the most relevant period for health outcome measurement in recreational water studies. Under the water quality conditions observed in this study, fecal indicator bacteria levels were not associated with swimmer illness.

In this large-scale longitudinal study conducted in rural Southern India, we compared a presence/absence hydrogen sulfide (H2S) test with quantitative assays for total coliforms and Escherichia coli as measures of water quality, health risk, and water supply vulnerability to microbial contamination. None of the three indicators showed a significant association with child diarrhea. The presence of H2S in a water sample was associated with higher levels of total coliform species that may have included E. coli but that were not restricted to E. coli. In addition, we observed a strong relationship between the percent positive H2S test results and total coliform levels among water source samples (R(2) = 0.87). The consistent relationships between H2S and total coliform levels indicate that presence/absence of H2S tests provide a cost-effective option for assessing both the vulnerability of water supplies to microbial contamination and the results of water quality management and risk mitigation efforts.

We assessed the relationship of fecal environmental contamination and environmental enteropathy. We compared markers of environmental enteropathy, parasite burden, and growth in 119 Bangladeshi children (≤ 48 months of age) across rural Bangladesh living in different levels of household environmental cleanliness defined by objective indicators of water quality and sanitary and hand-washing infrastructure. Adjusted for potential confounding characteristics, children from clean households had 0.54 SDs (95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.06, 1.01) higher height-for-age z scores (HAZs), 0.32 SDs (95% CI = -0.72, 0.08) lower lactulose:mannitol (L:M) ratios in urine, and 0.24 SDs (95% CI = -0.63, 0.16) lower immunoglobulin G endotoxin core antibody (IgG EndoCAb) titers than children from contaminated households. After adjusting for age and sex, a 1-unit increase in the ln L:M was associated with a 0.33 SDs decrease in HAZ (95% CI = -0.62, -0.05). These results are consistent with the hypothesis that environmental contamination causes growth faltering mediated through environmental enteropathy.

Many community-based studies of acute child illness rely on cases reported by caregivers. In prior investigations, researchers noted a reporting bias when longer illness recall periods were used. The use of recall periods longer than 2-3 days has been discouraged to minimize this reporting bias. In the present study, we sought to determine the optimal recall period for illness measurement when accounting for both bias and variance. Using data from 12,191 children less than 24 months of age collected in 2008-2009 from Himachal Pradesh in India, Madhya Pradesh in India, Indonesia, Peru, and Senegal, we calculated bias, variance, and mean squared error for estimates of the prevalence ratio between groups defined by anemia, stunting, and underweight status to identify optimal recall periods for caregiver-reported diarrhea, cough, and fever. There was little bias in the prevalence ratio when a 7-day recall period was used (

Abstract Background Estimating the required sample size and statistical power for a study is an integral part of study design. For standard designs, power equations provide an efficient solution to the problem, but they are unavailable for many complex study designs that arise in practice. For such complex study designs, computer simulation is a useful alternative for estimating study power. Although this approach is well known among statisticians, in our experience many epidemiologists and social scientists are unfamiliar with the technique. This article aims to address this knowledge gap. Methods We review an approach to estimate study power for individual- or cluster-randomized designs using computer simulation. This flexible approach arises naturally from the model used to derive conventional power equations, but extends those methods to accommodate arbitrarily complex designs. The method is universally applicable to a broad range of designs and outcomes, and we present the material in a way that is approachable for quantitative, applied researchers. We illustrate the method using two examples (one simple, one complex) based on sanitation and nutritional interventions to improve child growth. Results We first show how simulation reproduces conventional power estimates for simple randomized designs over a broad range of sample scenarios to familiarize the reader with the approach. We then demonstrate how to extend the simulation approach to more complex designs. Finally, we discuss extensions to the examples in the article, and provide computer code to efficiently run the example simulations in both R and Stata. Conclusions Simulation methods offer a flexible option to estimate statistical power for standard and non-traditional study designs and parameters of interest. The approach we have described is universally applicable for evaluating study designs used in epidemiologic and social science research.

Abstract Background Diarrhoea is the second leading cause of childhood mortality, with an estimated 1.3 million deaths per year. Promotion of Solar Water Disinfection (SODIS) has been suggested as a strategy for reducing the global burden of diarrhoea by improving the microbiological quality of drinking water. Despite increasing support for the large-scale dissemination of SODIS, there are few reports describing the effectiveness of its implementation. It is, therefore, important to identify and understand the mechanisms that lead to adoption and regular use of SODIS. Methods We investigated the behaviours associated with SODIS adoption among households assigned to receive SODIS promotion during a cluster-randomized trial in rural Bolivia. Distinct groups of SODIS-users were identified on the basis of six compliance indicators using principal components and cluster analysis. The probability of adopting SODIS as a function of campaign exposure and household characteristics was evaluated using ordinal logistic regression models. Results Standardised, community-level SODIS-implementation in a rural Bolivian setting was associated with a median SODIS use of 32% (IQR: 17-50). Households that were more likely to use SODIS were those that participated more frequently in SODIS promotional events (OR = 1.07, 95%CI: 1.01-1.13), included women (OR = 1.18, 95%CI: 1.07-1.30), owned latrines (OR = 3.38, 95%CI: 1.07-10.70), and had severely wasted children living in the home (OR = 2.17, 95%CI: 1.34-3.49). Conclusions Most of the observed household characteristics showed limited potential to predict compliance with a comprehensive, year-long SODIS-promotion campaign; this finding reflects the complexity of behaviour change in the context of household water treatment. However, our findings also suggest that the motivation to adopt new water treatment habits and to acquire new knowledge about drinking water treatment is associated with prior engagements in sanitary hygiene and with the experience of contemporary family health concerns. Household-level factors like the ownership of a latrine, a large proportion of females and the presence of a malnourished child living in a home are easily assessable indicators that SODIS-programme managers could use to identify early adopters in SODIS promotion campaigns. Trial Registration ClinicalTrials.gov: NCT00731497