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We investigate the predictability of successful memes using their early spreading patterns in the underlying social networks. We propose and analyze a comprehensive set of features and develop an accurate model to predict future popularity of a meme given its early spreading patterns. Our paper provides the first comprehensive comparison of existing predictive frameworks. We categorize our features into three groups: influence of early adopters, community concentration, and characteristics of adoption time series. We find that features based on community structure are the most powerful predictors of future success. We also find that early popularity of a meme is not a good predictor of its future popularity, contrary to common belief. Our methods outperform other approaches, particularly in the task of detecting very popular or unpopular memes., Comment: 10 pages, 6 figures, 2 tables. Proceedings of 8th AAAI Intl. Conf. on Weblogs and social media (ICWSM 2014)

Science is increasingly dominated by teams. Understanding patterns of scientific collaboration and their impacts on the productivity and evolution of disciplines is crucial to understand scientific processes. Electronic bibliography offers a unique opportunity to map and investigate the nature of scientific collaboration. Recent work have demonstrated a counter-intuitive organizational pattern of scientific collaboration networks: densely interconnected local clusters consist of weak ties, whereas strong ties play the role of connecting different clusters. This pattern contrasts itself from many other types of networks where strong ties form communities while weak ties connect different communities. Although there are many models for collaboration networks, no model reproduces this pattern. In this paper, we present an evolution model of collaboration networks, which reproduces many properties of real-world collaboration networks, including the organization of tie strengths, skewed degree and weight distribution, high clustering and assortative mixing.

We investigate the impact of community structure on information diffusion with the linear threshold model. Our results demonstrate that modular structure may have counter-intuitive effects on information diffusion when social reinforcement is present. We show that strong communities can facilitate global diffusion by enhancing local, intra-community spreading. Using both analytic approaches and numerical simulations, we demonstrate the existence of an optimal network modularity, where global diffusion require the minimal number of early adopters., Comment: 8 pages, 10 figures

Food occupies a central position in every culture and it is therefore of great interest to understand the evolution of food culture. The advent of the World Wide Web and online recipe repositories has begun to provide unprecedented opportunities for data-driven, quantitative study of food culture. Here we harness an online database documenting recipes from various Chinese regional cuisines and investigate the similarity of regional cuisines in terms of geography and climate. We found that the geographical proximity, rather than climate proximity is a crucial factor that determines the similarity of regional cuisines. We develop a model of regional cuisine evolution that provides helpful clues to understand the evolution of cuisines and cultures., Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures and 2 tables

How does network structure affect diffusion? Recent studies suggest that the answer depends on the type of contagion. Complex contagions, unlike infectious diseases (simple contagions), are affected by social reinforcement and homophily. Hence, the spread within highly clustered communities is enhanced, while diffusion across communities is hampered. A common hypothesis is that memes and behaviors are complex contagions. We show that, while most memes indeed behave like complex contagions, a few viral memes spread across many communities, like diseases. We demonstrate that the future popularity of a meme can be predicted by quantifying its early spreading pattern in terms of community concentration. The more communities a meme permeates, the more viral it is. We present a practical method to translate data about community structure into predictive knowledge about what information will spread widely. This connection may lead to significant advances in computational social science, social media analytics, and marketing applications., Comment: 15 pages, 5 figures

Discovering overlapping community structures is a crucial step to understanding the structure and dynamics of many networks. In this paper we develop a symmetric binary matrix factorization model (SBMF) to identify overlapping communities. Our model allows us not only to assign community memberships explicitly to nodes, but also to distinguish outliers from overlapping nodes. In addition, we propose a modified partition density to evaluate the quality of community structures. We use this to determine the most appropriate number of communities. We evaluate our methods using both synthetic benchmarks and real world networks, demonstrating the effectiveness of our approach.