201. Canadian Snow and Sea Ice: Trends (1981–2015) and Projections (2020–2050)
- Author
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Chris Derksen, Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso, Vincent Vionnet, Ross Brown, Paul J. Kushner, Chad W. Thackeray, Fred Laliberté, Stephen E. L. Howell, and Lawrence Mudryk
- Subjects
Arctic sea ice decline ,geography ,geography.geographical_feature_category ,010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences ,0211 other engineering and technologies ,02 engineering and technology ,Antarctic sea ice ,Snow ,01 natural sciences ,Arctic ice pack ,13. Climate action ,Climatology ,Snow line ,Sea ice ,Environmental science ,Cryosphere ,Sea ice concentration ,021101 geological & geomatics engineering ,0105 earth and related environmental sciences - Abstract
The Canadian Sea Ice and Snow Evolution Network (CanSISE) is a climate research network focused on developing and applying state of the art observational data to advance dynamical prediction, projections, and understanding of seasonal snow cover and sea ice in Canada and the circumpolar Arctic. Here, we present an assessment from the CanSISE network on trends in the historical record of snow cover (fraction, water equivalent) and sea ice (area, concentration, type, and thickness) across Canada. We also assess projected changes in snow cover and sea ice likely to occur by mid-century, as simulated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) suite of earth system models. The historical datasets show that the fraction of Canadian land and marine areas covered by snow and ice is decreasing over time, with seasonal and regional variability in the trends consistent with regional differences in surface temperature trends. In particular, summer sea ice cover has decreased significantly across nearly all Canadian marine regions, and the rate of multiyear ice loss in the Beaufort Sea and Canadian Arctic Archipelago has nearly doubled over the last eight years. The multimodel consensus over the 2020–2050 period shows reductions in fall and spring snow cover fraction and sea ice concentration of 5–10 % per decade (or 15–30 % in total), with similar reductions in winter sea ice concentration in both Hudson Bay and eastern Canadian waters. Peak pre-melt terrestrial snow water equivalent reductions of up to 10 % per decade (30 % in total) are projected across southern Canada.
- Published
- 2017
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