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This article provides theory and evidence on the spatial determinants of regional patient flows. We develop a theoretical model that explains a patient's choice to consult a general practitioner by a measure of spatial accessibility. We empirically test this gravity‐type model using regional patient flows and detailed data on the spatial distribution of residents and physicians in Austria. Our measure of spatial accessibility is a crucial determinant of patient flows that substantially increases the explanatory power of regular gravity models. Counterfactual simulations show heterogeneous effects of exiting physicians on health‐care accessibility and patient mobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Remittances are one of the major driving forces of economic growth in Bangladesh. The paper's main objective is to empirically investigate the effect of COVID-19 on the remittance inflow to Bangladesh using a gravity model framework. We have employed monthly data of remittance inflow to Bangladesh from January 2018 to September 2022 with its top twelve partners, namely the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Qatar, Oman, Bahrain, Libya, the United Kingdom, Italy, Malaysia, Singapore, and Japan. Using the gravity equation, we tapped the COVID-19 dummy as the critical variable of our interest, along with COVID transmission, mortality, and vaccination data at home and abroad. Using Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood (PPML), fixed-effect (FE), and random-effect (RE) estimations, we find that during the COVID-19 pandemic, remittance inflow to Bangladesh increased significantly after controlling for other Gravity variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transit-oriented development is described as a geographic unit with multicircle structures. Most studies have analysed the impact of the built environment within station catchment areas on metro passenger flows from a macro perspective and have lacked analysis of the circle heterogeneity. Few relevant studies have independently investigated the impact of the built environment on the passenger flow in each circle and indeed neglected the systematic interaction between inner circles and circles in the TOD area. In this study, the 800 m buffer from the station was equally divided into four circles. Based on the gravity model, the representative built environment features around the metro stations on both sides were extracted using the block attention module (BAM). Subsequently, Shapley Additive exPlanation (SHAP) was used to explore the influence of different built environment variables on passenger flow at each circle between the origin and destination stations. The results indicate the following: (1) the station-to-station passenger flow is significantly affected by the availability of transfers and the distance between the origin and destination stations; (2) the impact of different built environments on ridership significantly varies within different circles; and (3) the built environment has a similar impact on average daily passenger flow on both sides. Therefore, this study proposes strategies to optimize the metro passenger flow by developing different land use in different circles and updating the urban spatial structure. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To control the health impact of the COVID-19 pandemic, governments implemented various restrictive policies, such as stay-at-home orders and restrictions on internal movement, which had adverse effects on consumption and, consequently, on international trade. This was observed even for products intensively traded and minimally impacted in terms of production, such as wine. Thus, to work towards a better awareness of future crises, this study assesses the impact of government policy responses to COVID-19 on the international wine trade. A gravity model, a benchmark approach for studying the determinants of trade, is estimated using monthly data for 20 exporting countries and 214 potential importing countries. The findings suggest that, ceteris paribus, the value of wine export flows was inversely related to the intensity of government policy response in importing countries due to lower demand provoked by restrictive measures. This effect was considerably reduced, however, concerning wines coming from the Old World, which are inferred to be more resilient, a factor primarily attributed to their higher share of wines exported with geographical indications. On the other hand, only the exports from Old World countries were negatively influenced by restrictions on internal movements in the exporting country, which reflects a business model with a complex supply chain in which several intermediaries are involved, thus weakening the direct linkage between wine producers and consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) theorem and investigates its fit for digital tasks and ICT capital, which both represent endowment factors that are expected to shape the digital transformation. We use a theory-consistent methodology for calculating the measured net factor content of trade and apply it to a unique dataset on digital and non-digital tasks performed in detailed occupations, as well as recent data on ICT capital stocks. Equipped with these data, we provide new evidence on the factor-based trade patterns for 25 EU countries and use it to test the HOV theorem. Overall, the performance of the sign test and the rank test is good, if not impressive. In 83% of the cases, countries are net exporters of those factors with which they are abundantly endowed, with a higher score achieved for digital tasks than for ICT capital. The relevance of digital tasks and ICT capital is corroborated by a gravity model, which indicates that higher endowments with these factors foster bilateral exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the gravity of bilateral trade in services at an aggregate level. The aim of the paper is to assess the effects of social and economic factors on the export of services. A large part of the trade-in services is directly or indirectly related to the tourism industry; therefore, the results of this research are mainly discussed from the perspective of the tourism industry. To achieve the paper's aim, we estimate the augmented gravity model on a sample of 5,359 trading partners from 2000 to 2018. We evaluate our model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator. We include various fixed-effect dummies in our model to address the endogeneity issues. Our results show that standard gravity variables such as economic size and distance are significant for service trade. From the tourism industry perspective, it can be concluded that trade in tourism services is determined by the similarity in economic size, proximity, and common socio-economic factors such as common first language and shared religious beliefs. In contrast, common colonial history has no significant effects on service trade. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In cross‐section gravity models the two‐way cluster‐robust standard errors of the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimates tend to be considerably downward biased. However, two‐way clustering can be avoided if intra‐cluster correlation is induced by country‐specific trade shocks with uniform pass through (equi‐correlation) and the gravity model includes exporter and importer country fixed effects. In this case the pseudo‐within‐transformation of the PPML estimator projects out the corresponding components of the disturbances. In Monte Carlo simulations the Pustejovsky and Tipton (2018) bias correction for independent disturbances (i.e. ignoring clustering) reveals just a small downward bias of the estimated standard errors and confidence intervals with nearly correct coverage rates. Under deviations from equi‐correlation the bias is somewhat larger, but still comparable to the bias of the cluster‐robust standard errors with Pustejovsky and Tipton (2018) bias correction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The study intends to investigate the effect of taxation on bilateral trade in the Southern African Development Community region. It is motivated by the on-going reviews of tax rates in the frame of the SADC regional integration. Design/Approach/Methodology: This paper further employs the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood with high dimensional fixed effects (PPMLHDFE) to ascertain the objective, which caters for multilateral resistance and ensures the accuracy and validity of the results for a time spanning from 2012 to 2018. Findings: The results show that during the period of the analysis, import tax for exporting countries significantly increases bilateral trade, while export tax for exporting countries increases bilateral trade, and significantly reduces bilateral trade for importing countries in the region. International trade tax for exporting countries significantly reduces bilateral trade. Practical Implications: Authorities should formulate a more effective and rational approach to taxation, such as increasing their tax net and downward revision tax rates for struggling companies, so that taxes do not become a hindrance, but rather, a pivotal determinant of trade, growth, and development in the region. Originality/Value: This paper is unique because it is the first to examine and understand the impact of taxation (import tax, export tax and international trade tax) on bilateral trade in the SADC region, employing the standard Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood gravity model approach, which accommodates heteroskedasticity and zero trade flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper explores the application of the gravity model, namely the delineation of the urban predominant influence areas via the generation of the multiplicatively weighted Voronoi diagram, to the socio-economic regionalisation and administrative territorial division of Ukraine, including the existing state of affairs and several proposals on their improvement. The research uses quantitative statistical data on interregional migration and rail passenger traffic within the country, processed via the Statistica analytics software, and a subsequent spatial analysis conducted by GIS. The findings suggest that the gravity model can serve as a tool for optimisation the administrative territorial division, as well as for the delineation of the planning regions and urban hinterlands. At the same time, it has certain limitations and should not be treated as a panacea for regional planning and development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article studies the development of scientific co‐publications between EU countries and Russia since the start of the Ukraine crisis in 2014. We investigate if economic sanctions and counter‐sanctions imposed during the crisis affected EU–Russia knowledge flows even before all science collaborations between the EU countries and Russia were eventually suspended as part of the EU sanctions in 2022. Our econometric analysis uses a gravity model framework and a comprehensive dataset covering more than 540 million scientific publications and 8.6 million international co‐publications for 35 countries (EU, BRICS, Belarus and Ukraine) during 1995–2018. Findings indicate that the imposition of EU sanctions and Russian counter‐sanctions from 2014 onwards had a significantly negative effect on EU–Russia co‐publication intensities. As a lower bound estimate, we find that sanctions reduced the EU–Russia scientific co‐publication intensity by 15% at the aggregate level. Effects are higher in specific scientific fields. We uncover transmission channels of this effect, for example, related to dual‐use technologies and growing resentments, and assess the robustness of our estimates. Time–dynamic regressions show that the sanctions effect on scientific collaboration increases over time. This underlines the susceptibility of global knowledge flows to geopolitical conflicts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As international trade practices continue to develop, more than half of all international service trade has been digitised, with digital trade rules becoming a key factor affecting the development of global value chain (GVC) service trade. This study constructs the depth and scope indicators of digital trade rules included within preferential trade agreements (PTAs). We then investigate the role that digital trade rules play in promoting service trade along GVC using a gravity model framework. From our analysis, we find that both the depth and the scope indicators of digital trade rules have a significant promotional effect on GVC service exports, with the impact on GVC forward service exports being greater than the impact that was felt on GVC backward service exports. We also find that the GVC trade promotion effect is affected by income level, types of PTAs and the differences in regulatory quality that exist between countries. Finally, by developing a dynamic model that includes a set of leads and lags for digital trade rules' variables, we find that the impact of digital trade rules on GVC trade in services has both an anticipation and phasing‐in effect. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries differ, sometimes significantly, regarding their basic labour market structure. Despite the prevalence of theoretical literature, empirical studies examining the impact of labour market rigidity (LMR) on trade is sparse. Existing empirical studies have been limited to aggregate trade flows with cross‐sectional estimations; a limited set of countries (e.g. OECD or Latin America) or to the period after 1990. We utilise a gravity model of trade to examine the impact of LMR on exports for 145 countries between 1964 and 2004. We utilise dis‐aggregated product‐level trade data and decompose total exports into the extensive and the intensive margin to examine this relationship. We also utilise total aggregate international trade relative to domestic sales, which allows for the identification of LMR‐trade relationship, even in the presence of multilateral trade resistance controls. Finally, we estimate the effect of LMR on exports (and the margins) by focusing on a sample of European OECD countries via the difference‐in‐differences estimation. In all cases, we find that a rigid LMR reduces total exports, and this decrease is driven primarily by the intensive margin. Our findings are relevant as recent studies have found the intensive margin to be more important for long‐run export growth and especially for developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We study whether, when, and how better connectivity through nonstop flights leads to positive innovation outcomes for firms in the global context. Using unique data of all flights emanating from 5,015 airports around the globe from 2005 to 2015 and exploiting a regression discontinuity framework, we report that a 10% increase in nonstop flights between two locations leads to a 3.4% increase in citations and a 1.4% increase in the production of collaborative patents between those locations. This effect is driven primarily by firms as opposed to academic institutions. We further study the characteristics of firms and firm locations that are salient to the relation between nonstop flights and innovation outcomes across countries. Using a gravity model, we posit and find that the positive effect of nonstop flights on innovation is stronger for firms and subsidiaries with greater innovation mass (e.g., stocks of inventors and R&D spending), located in innovation hubs or countries that are deemed technology leaders, and that are separated by large cultural or temporal distance. This paper was accepted by Alfonso Gambardella, business strategy. Supplemental Material: The online appendix and data are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2023.4682. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a driving force for regional development, innovation holds an increasing position in regional competitiveness, and a reasonable and coordinated innovation network structure can promote high-quality regional development. Utilizing the modified gravity model and social network analysis method, an innovation network composed of 27 cities in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration from 2010 to 2021 was studied. The following conclusions were founded: (1) The innovation development level in the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration was constantly improving, and the innovation development level generally showed a spatial pattern of high in the southeast and low in the northwest. (2) The intensity and density of innovation network correlations in urban agglomerations were increasing, and the centrality of network nodes had an obvious hierarchical characteristic. The innovation network had a significant core–periphery spatial structure, with core cities that had higher centrality, such as Shanghai, Nanjing, and Hangzhou, playing the role of "intermediaries" and "bridges", while cities with lower centrality, such as Anhui and cities in northern Jiangsu, generally played the role of "periphery actors" in the network. (3) The spatial correlation network of innovation of the Yangtze River Delta urban agglomeration could be divided into four blocks, namely, main benefit, broker, two-way spillover, and net spillover, and the spillover effect among them had obvious gradient characteristics of hierarchy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A search for physics beyond the Standard Model inducing periodic signals in the dielectron and diphoton invariant mass spectra is presented using 139 fb−1 of s = 13 TeV pp collision data collected by the ATLAS experiment at the LHC. Novel search techniques based on continuous wavelet transforms are used to infer the frequency of periodic signals from the invariant mass spectra and neural network classifiers are used to enhance the sensitivity to periodic resonances. In the absence of a signal, exclusion limits are placed at the 95% confidence level in the two-dimensional parameter space of the clockwork gravity model. Model-independent searches for deviations from the background-only hypothesis are also performed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We construct new Euclidean wormhole solutions in AdSd+1 and discuss their role in UV-complete theories, without ensemble averaging. The geometries are interpreted as overlaps of GHZ-like entangled states, which arise naturally from coarse graining the density matrix of a pure state in the dual CFT. In several examples, including thin-shell collapsing black holes and pure black holes with an end-of-the-world brane behind the horizon, the coarse-graining map is found explicitly in CFT terms, and used to define a coarse-grained entropy that is equal to one quarter the area of a time-symmetric apparent horizon. Wormholes are used to derive the coarse-graining map and to study statistical properties of the quantum state. This reproduces aspects of the West Coast model of 2D gravity and the large-c ensemble of 3D gravity, including a Page curve, in a higher-dimensional context with generic matter fields. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Google Trends (GT) collate the volumes of search keywords over time and by geographical location. Such data could, in theory, provide insights into people's ex ante intentions to migrate, and hence be useful for predictive analysis of future migration. Empirically, however, the predictive power of GT is sensitive, it may vary depending on geographical context, the search keywords selected for analysis, as well as Google's market share and its users' characteristics and search behavior, among others. Unlike most previous studies attempting to demonstrate the benefit of using GT for forecasting migration flows, this article addresses a critical but less discussed issue: when GT cannot enhance the performances of migration models. Using EUROSTAT statistics on first-time asylum applications and a set of push-pull indicators gathered from various data sources, we train three classes of gravity models that are commonly used in the migration literature, and examine how the inclusion of GT may affect models' abilities to predict refugees' destination choices. The results suggest that the effects of including GT are highly contingent on the complexity of different models. Specifically, GT can only improve the performance of relatively simple models, but not of those augmented by flow Fixed-Effects or by Auto-Regressive effects. These findings call for a more comprehensive analysis of the strengths and limitations of using GT, as well as other digital trace data, in the context of modeling and forecasting migration. It is our hope that this nuanced perspective can spur further innovations in the field, and ultimately bring us closer to a comprehensive modeling framework of human migration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we would like to examine whether a novel Starobinsky–Bel–Robinson (SBR) gravity model admits stable exponential inflationary solutions with or without spatial anisotropies. As a result, we are able to derive an exact de Sitter inflationary to this SBR model. Furthermore, we observe that an exact Bianchi type I inflationary solution does not exist in the SBR model. However, we find that a modified SBR model, in which the sign of coefficient of R 2 term is flipped from positive to negative, can admit the corresponding Bianchi type I inflationary solution. Unfortunately, stability analysis using the dynamical system approach indicates that both of these inflationary solutions turn out to be unstable. Interestingly, we show that a stable de Sitter inflationary solution can be obtained in the modified SBR gravity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we extend an axion F (R) gravity model, and apply the holographic principle to describe in a unifying manner the early and the late-time universe when the general equation-of-state (EoS) contains a bulk viscosity. We assume a spatially flat Friedmann–Robertson–Walker (FRW) universe model. We use a description based on the generalized infrared-cutoff holographic dark energy proposed by Nojiri and Odintsov [Eur. Phys. J. C 77 (2017) 528; Gen. Relativ. Gravit. 38 (2006) 1285], and explore the evolution of the universe when the EoS describes the asymptotic behavior between the dust in the early universe and the late universe. We explore various forms of the bulk viscosity, and calculate analytical expressions for the infrared cutoffs in terms of the particle horizon. In this way, we obtain a unifying description of the early and the late-time universe in the presence of axion matter, via a viscous holographic fluid model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of World Regional Studies is the property of World Regional Studies Editorial Office and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the era of globalization, policy makers in both developing and developed countries have sought to expand their export destinations, with the expectation that export market diversification can boost export upgrading and economic development. Although extant literature has confirmed that exporters search for new markets in two distinct ways: direct search underpinned by the gravity effect and remote search driven by the extended gravity effect, it has not advanced very far due to the lack of adequate measures of those effects. This article presents a technique that uses available export data to develop measures of those two effects that capture a larger range of factors and thus allow us to more easily predict export market diversification. Our new indicator also simplifies the prediction by combining gravity and extended gravity effects. Empirical results show that the explanatory and predictive power of our new method is better than that of the traditional one based on gravity and extended gravity models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To ensure China's energy security, the mining industry faces increasing emissions reduction and energy conservation pressures. This study combined index and production-theoretical decomposition analyses to decompose the energy-related CO2 emissions in mining industry (ERCEMI) influencing factors into seven major effects and adopted a gravity model to dynamically visualize the transfer path and gravity distribution from 2000 to 2015. As investment effects were introduced into the decomposition analysis, the results fully considered the regional heterogeneity and spatiotemporal dynamics. The main findings were as follows: (i) a typical heavy emissions trend along the Heihe-Tengchong line, with a concentration of large ERCEMI values; (ii) the gravity center of ERCEMI had shifted to the southwest, and the migration trends were divided into three stages; (iii) the ERCEMI had strong regional heterogeneity, with a diffusion trend from north to south and shrinking from east to west; (iv) the potential energy intensity and investment efficiency effects had significantly inhibited the ERCEMI, while the investment scale had boosted it. Implications for regional layouts, energy intensity reductions, and investment optimization are discussed. This research provides a comprehensive regional analysis for ERCEMI reductions and the sustainable development of the mining industry and provides a reference for local industrial development planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present study investigates the effect of regional and bilateral trade agreements supported by institutional framework on bilateral trade between India and selected South and Central Asian countries. The augmented gravity model that corrects for zero trade, endogeneity and heterogeneity is used. The model is developed by applying OLS and PPML (Poisson pseudo-maximum likelihood) estimation technique using panel dataset of 22 countries from 1996 to 2020. Empirical results show that trade agreements have failed to enhance trade between selected countries. However, institutional framework positively contributes to trade integration among these countries. The key finding of this study is that regional trade agreements supported by institutional framework play an important role in promotion of trade among these countries. Thus, the government needs to pay attention to enhance institutional quality to reap the benefits of trade integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Evacuation destination choice modeling is an integral aspect of evacuation planning. Outputs from such models are required to estimate the clearance times on which evacuation orders are based. The number of evacuees arriving at each destination also informs allocation of resources and shelter planning. Despite its importance, evacuee destination modeling has not received as much attention as identifying who evacuates and when. In this study, we present a new approach to identify evacuees and determine where they go and when using privacy-enhanced smartphone location data. We demonstrate the method using data from four recent U.S. hurricanes affecting multiple geographies (Florence 2018, Michael 2018, Dorian 2019, and Ida 2021). We then build on those results to develop a new machine learning model that predicts the number of evacuees that move between pairs of metropolitan statistical areas. The machine learning model incorporates hurricane characteristics, which have not been thoroughly exploited by existing methods. The model's predictive power is comprehensively evaluated through a tenfold cross validation, holdout validation using Hurricane Ida (2021), and comparison with the traditional gravity model. Results suggest that the new model substantially outperforms the traditional gravity model across all performance indicators. Analysis of feature importance in the machine learning model indicates that in addition to distance and population, hurricane characteristics are important in evacuee destination choices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Turkish Studies - Economics, Finance, Politics is the property of Electronic Turkish Studies and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Objective: The objective of this study was to identify factors influencing the development of China-ASEAN trade- from the total economic volume of both sides, distance, the population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of a free trade area, and the signing of the Belt and Road initiative, resource endowment per capita, the exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the land area of ASEAN countries—to develop a conceptual framework for China-ASEAN trade potential. Study design: This study uses panel data from 2001 to 2021 that is evenly distributed among 10 ASEAN countries to serve as the dataset. Firstly, the unit roots are checked and the cointegration relationships are examined, focusing on the heterogeneity test. Based on the classical trade gravity model, the innovative trade gravity model with key influencing factors is constructed. On the basis of the classical trade gravity model, an innovative trade gravity model of key influencing factors is constructed. The trade potential model is used to calculate the direct trade potential coefficient between China and ASEAN countries, which points out the direction for the sustainability of bilateral trade. Results: This study finds that among the factors affecting China-ASEAN bilateral trade, the total economic output of both sides, distance, population size of ASEAN countries, the construction of the FTA, and the signing of the Belt and Road Initiative all have a positive impact on bilateral trade. Three influencing factors, namely per capita resource endowment, exchange rate between RMB and ASEAN countries, and the size of ASEAN countries, have a negative impact on bilateral trade, but to a lesser extent. The trade potential between China and Vietnam falls into the category of potential re-modelling, indicating that both sides are currently utilizing their trade potential to the greatest extent possible, that trade growth space is limited, and that new trade opportunities must be discovered. The trade potential index between China and nine ASEAN countries, excluding Vietnam, is in the potential-exploiting category, indicating that the potential has not been fully utilized by both sides and that there is still room for growth in the scale of trade between the two countries. Conclusion: With the shift of the world's economic center of gravity in the direction of Asia following COVID-19, China and ASEAN countries should seize the opportunity to strengthen their comprehensive strength and economic aggregates and further develop China's constructive role in the regional organization. The signing of the Belt and Road Initiative and the construction of a free trade zone has had a positive effect on the development of bilateral trade. Propose that: positive trade factors should continue to be strengthened, trade barriers should be removed, and new dynamics of bilateral trade growth should be enhanced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We examine recent trends of South Korea's outward foreign direct investment from 2001 to 2021, which shows substantial change in terms of the total amount and compositions. Using gravity models, we test whether these differential time trends across the industries and destination countries survive after incorporating economic factors. Controlling for economic conditions, we find that the FDI to China has been declining much earlier than the China–South Korea political dispute, while the FDI to USA shows a steady increase, making it the top FDI destination throughout the sample period. Investment in tax haven shows rapid increase across all sizes of South Korean investors and therefore, further research is needed on its implications for tax evasion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates Oman's international tourism predictors within a coherent gravity modelling framework. International visitor arrival data for 2007 to 2015 involving Oman's forty-eight main visitor origin countries are incorporated in the balanced panel estimation empirical phase that tests several gravity model specifications. The estimation procedure includes standard gravity variables and controls for several hypothesized influences. The findings provide strong evidence that the economic sizes of visitor recipient and origin countries, the distance between Oman and visitor origin countries, humidity, quality of accommodation, and common religion are statistically significant predictors. Surprisingly, while relevant, Oman's cultural attractions (museums, forts, and castles) and the extent of human freedom are statistically insignificant. These findings are unique as they focus on the importance of factors determining Oman's tourism within a cohesive and inclusive modelling framework. Policymakers can target the abovementioned variables to facilitate investments and propel tourism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Price competition and quality competition are the main ways to increase and maintain international competitiveness in the world. However, competitive strategies can vary significantly from product to product. With the utility function and trade gravity model as the research framework in this paper, we use the top 10 countries in terms of the trade volume of forest products from 2012 to 2021 as samples to systematically explore the differential impacts of price and quality on the international competitiveness of forest products. The results of the panel data model that show the regression coefficient of forest product price in terms of international competitiveness are significantly negative, while the regression coefficient of forest product quality is significantly positive, but the absolute value of the regression coefficient of product quality is higher than that of forest product price. Thus, the price and quality of forest products are key factors affecting international competitiveness in general, with the quality of forest products having a higher impact on international competitiveness than the price. However, a further analysis of different forest product categories and countries revealed significant differences in the significance and magnitude of price and quality impacts on international competitiveness. The quality of forest products contributes more to international competitiveness in Brazil, Canada, Germany, Russia, Sweden and the United States. Conversely, the price of forest products in China, Finland, Italy and Poland contributes more to international competitiveness. Therefore, an objective choice of price, quality or a quality:price ratio strategy, taking into account the industry and characteristics of forest products in each country, can contribute to the sustainable improvement of the international competitiveness of forest products. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper revisits the causal impact of international trade on income using a time‐variant instrument in a panel of counties between 1950 and 1995. In particular, in constructing the time‐varying instrument, it estimates the gravity model using the Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood (PPML) estimator. Trade has a significantly positive impact on income over the 1950–1970 period ‐the income elasticity of trade is between 0.35 and 0.50. However, air distance has not had any increasing effects on international trade since the 1970s. Therefore, the imputed trade from 1970 to 1995, used as an instrument, has little variance and should not have driven the change in income. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The aim of this article is to analyse the impact of climate change on bilateral trade flows. To this end, we estimate a theory‐grounded gravity model using bilateral trade flows on a sample of 67 countries over the period from 1986 to 2016. We use temperatures and extreme weather events (and their consequences) as indicators of climate change. In general, we find that international trade flows are less affected by the evolution of temperatures than domestic ones, while the opposite occurs with extreme weather events. However, there is a clear heterogeneity across countries and types of events. In particular, the results suggest that biological events, such as (epidemics and insect infestation), extreme temperatures, storms and landslides have a negative impact on international flows relative to internal ones. Interestingly, the influence of China and Japan on the global result is decisive, especially for storms in the first case and extreme temperatures in the second. Finally, our General Equilibrium estimations suggest a more detrimental impact of insect infestation and extreme temperatures on welfare than the rest of events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the direct and indirect trade volume and trade cost effects of uncertainty on international trade and economic welfare using a structural gravity framework for a panel of 97 developed and developing countries from 2000 to 2018. We find that the sign and magnitude of the effect depend on whether uncertainty originates from the importing or exporting country. Moreover, applying a cross‐sectional gravity model, we show that an uncertainty shock directly reduces cross‐border trade flows. The paper illustrates the suitability of the proposed modelling approach by means of two counterfactual scenario analyses in which we calculate the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of uncertainty induced by the unexpected outcome of the Brexit referendum in 2016 and the outbreak of the COVID‐19 pandemic in 2020. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Countries are increasingly incorporating foreign digital services in their exports, creating new and complex interdependencies between economies, which suggests a new channel for the expansion of global value chains (GVCs). To better understand how these new and complex interdependencies are evolving, we apply a novel methodological framework. First, using social network analysis methodology, we calculate several indicators that capture these complex network interdependencies. Second, we include these indicators in the second stage of a two‐step gravity model that explains (in the first step) dyadic trade flows of embodied digital services. Our motivation for this two‐stage approach is to avoid difficulties that traditional gravity models have in incorporating complex network interdependencies. Our empirical results suggest statistically significant effects of such interdependencies in the embodied digital services trade flows. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Agricultural Resources & Environment / Nongye Ziyuan yu Huanjing Xuebao is the property of Journal of Agricultural Resources & Environment Editorial Board and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Agricultural Resources & Environment / Nongye Ziyuan yu Huanjing Xuebao is the property of Journal of Agricultural Resources & Environment Editorial Board and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Given the recent changes in the supply and demand of dairy products, many opportunities arise for exporting and importing countries. This paper examines determinants of dairy‐product trade by applying the Poisson Pseudo‐Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to the gravity model using panel data on 49 exporting and 235 importing countries for the 17 years from 2000 to 2016. The gravity model is estimated using both interval data and dynamic analyses. The results show that domestic subsidies have a modest, but significant, impact on dairy‐product trade across the models. For example, a 1% increase in subsidies leads to a roughly 0.02% increase in trade for an average country. Memberships in trade agreements, market size factors, and government institutions also positively affect dairy‐product trade. However, tariffs are insignificant in the main model specification. Results from the lag‐policy analysis show that the impact of subsidies disappears after the second year of distribution; whereas for the lead‐policy analysis, results suggest at least 3 years of anticipatory effects on domestic subsidies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper extends the traditional gravity model to explain the effect of digitalization on international tourism flows to five Southern European countries, where tourism plays an important economic role. The analysis is based on balanced panel data covering the period 2004–2019. Internet-user statistics and Google Trends search data are used as a proxy for digital adoption and virtual proximity, respectively, by source markets. Results lend support to the notion that virtual proximity rather than digital adoption aided international travel, demonstrating that digitalization cannot be interpreted as a fluid and vague concept that exerts a consistent effect. Results also present evidence that Southern European countries should not be treated as a block of homogenous destinations. These findings inform stakeholders regarding the significance of digital platforms as strategic tools to empower consumers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates three-way gravity models with multiplicative unobserved effects, which are popular in bilateral trade analysis and many other contexts. Such models are usually estimated by the fixed effects Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood method. As an alternative, we extend the estimation strategy proposed by Jochmans (2017) to our new settings by constructing moment conditions that are independent of the unobserved effects. Our method entails estimation of the conditional mean of a variety of functional forms. The generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator based on these moment conditions is N-consistent and asymptotically normally distributed. We also discuss the estimation of dynamic models by extending the linear feedback models to our three-way settings. Through various simulation designs, we show that our GMM estimator outperforms the competing Poisson pseudo maximum likelihood estimator. As an empirical application, we estimate the effects of the currency unions on exports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The current empirical literature shows that logistics plays a vital role in increasing the total volume of international trade. However, there is scarce literature on the impact of logistics performance on global value chain trade. Therefore, the objective of this paper is to investigate the effect of logistics performance on global value chain trade, measured by the value-added exports. The empirical specification of this paper is based on the structural gravity model of international trade. The analysis is based on biennial panel data on bilateral trade flows for the EU-15, CEE, and the Western Balkans and covers the period from 2010 to 2018. The model is estimated with a Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood Estimator. The results show that logistics performance appears to have significant positive effects on global value chain trade and that the logistics performance of the partner country plays a more critical role than the logistics performance of the reporting country. Institutional quality matters greatly for global value chain trade. Individual differences in the observed variables were found between selected groups of countries. The need to improve logistics performance and invest in knowledge and technology will help countries improve in value chains, along with adequate institutional support. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cultural and linguistic affinities have been studied in international business through the gravity model and economics of language. International investment theories enable the assessment of organisational, location, and internalisation motivations. The present study assesses the impact of transport costs, common language and market size based on the arguments of the gravity model, economics of language, and international investment theory. This investigation evaluates the relationship between the Portuguese FDI and the gravity model, using panel data between 2005 and 2020. The OLS estimator, PPML-Poisson Pseudo-Maximum-Likelihood estimator, and panel quantile regressions were used as an econometric methodology. Regarding research, we sought to understand to what extent cultural and linguistic issues, namely Portuguese-speaking countries, contribute to explaining Portuguese FDI. The economic dimension of the Portuguese economy and investor countries were introduced into the regression model. In addition, transportation and transaction costs were analysed across geographical distances. The econometric results show that the common language and cultural aspects are positively correlated with the Portuguese FDI, which allows us to conclude that the Portuguese language reduces the asymmetries between the home market and the host country. When panel quantile regressions are applied, it is possible to observe that the Portuguese economy has dimension enough to attract FDI, just as the countries investing in the Portuguese economy have a return on the investment made. Finally, geographical distance negatively impacts FDI, showing that geographical proximity increases the probability of attracting FDI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Multi-sector variants of gravity models typically predict much larger gains from trade (losses from protectionism) than their one-sector counterparts. This result –corroborated by several model-based quantification studies and commonly ascribed to Jensen's inequality– has been recently questioned by studies that use micro price data to obtain sector-level estimates of the trade elasticity, a key parameter for the quantification of the gains. We reassess this issue by using a novel set of estimates of the trade elasticity at various levels of sectoral disaggregation, exploiting a recently proposed identification strategy based on tariffs. In our baseline 24-sector model specification, we find that the cross-country average size of the gains amounts to 12% and that this number is 21% larger than the one delivered by the one-sector specification. Overall, our results suggest that the effects of magnification of the gains associated with greater sectoral disaggregation (which we confirm to be mainly driven by cross-sector variation in trade elasticity) are significant, not negligible, but considerably smaller than generally quantified in the previous literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The motivation of this article is to better understand the determinants of international banking integration of non-Euro CESEE EU Members. One stylized fact for these economies is the building up of external financial vulnerabilities since the beginning of the transition period, with a large weight of cross-border banking, particularly with the European Union. In relation with the literature on the impact of gross financial flows on financial stability, we therefore estimate the long-term historical, geographical and cultural determinants of cross-border banking claims with a bilateral financial gravity model. We then analyze the impact of domestic (pull), foreign (push) and global factors using the gravity framework. Our results first show that cross-border banking in these economies is significantly driven by geographical proximity and common historical links, particularly with EU Member States. Second, we find that banking sector health variables are more significant as push factors, while structural banking system variables are more significant as pull factors. These results provide evidence in favor of an impact of European banking systems on financial liabilities in this region, in relation with the very high level of EU ownership of banking assets. Finally, US global liquidity factor matters more than exchange rate stability, which points towards policy dilemma effect in the region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study evaluates the trade relations between Ethiopia and China as well as Ethiopia and India, and then compares the bilateral trade volume between them. It also examines the nexus between international trade and economic growth. Panel data were adopted to estimate the impact of China's and India's bilateral trade with Ethiopia for the 25 years duration (1990–2015). The gravity model has been employed in order to evaluate and compare the bilateral trade between Ethiopia–China and Ethiopia–India. To examine the collected data SPSS has been employed. The study also outlined three different hypotheses and examined them based on the consistency of the statistical empirical result of the study as well as the positive unconditional coherence with previous academic literature. The result demonstrates the bilateral trade between Ethiopia–China, 0.321, was found to be higher than Ethiopia–India, 0.136. The study's empirical result also highlights that the influence of geographical proximity alone cannot be a determinant effect on bilateral trade, and discovers a significant linear relationship between a bilateral trade agreement (BTA) and a partner country's economic size. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Agriculture contributes to economic development as well as meeting the basic nutritional needs of a society. The dried fruits and dried fruit products industry is one of the leading industries contributing to the national economy and forms a significant part of the agricultural industry. This study investigates the determinants of Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products using the gravity model. In this context, the data for the 2005-2021 period for 78 countries importing dried fruits and dried fruit products from Türkiye were analyzed using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood estimator (PPML). The analysis revealed that the GDP of Türkiye and the importing country, nominal exchange rate, EU membership of the importing country, the availability of a free trade agreement with the importing country and the average surface temperature changes, positively impact Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products. Whereas the distance between countries, which is a good indicator for transportation costs, negatively affects Türkiye's exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products. The results of the analyses show that exports of dried fruits and products exhibit similar results to that of exports of agricultural products. Additionally, the gravity model for exports of dried fruits and dried fruit products is valid for Türkiye. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

It is crucial to investigate the urban agglomerations spatio-temporal evolution patterns and driving factors for analyzing the urban spatial structure-functional division and promoting the coordinated development of urban agglomerations. In this study, a novel vegetation-building-nighttime light-adjusted index (VBNAI) was established for rapid and effective mapping of urban construction land (UCL) in Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPUA), China during 2000–2020 based on Google Earth Engine (GEE) platform. Compared with traditional indices, VBNAI can significantly decrease the blooming effect, Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) saturation, and soil background of nighttime light data. In addition, the urban expansion indices and standard deviation ellipse model were synthetically adopted to analyze the spatio-temporal evolution pattern of urban expansion. The gravity model and the geographically weighted regression model were employed to determine the spatial interaction forces and drivers of urban expansion, respectively. The results showed that the VBNAI index has obvious advantages in efficiency and accuracy to extract UCL with the overall accuracy of more than 91%. The UCL of CPUA had increased by 4489.84 km2 during 2000–2020 with the gravity center moving towards southeast continuously. From 2000 to 2010, the urban expansion was in a 'center-hinterland' pattern which had benefit from the favorable effect of the traffic shaft belt. During 2010–2020, the urban network structure had basically established. Urban expansion had been influenced by a variety of socio-economic and demographic factors, and the impact degree varied from region to region. This study could provide scientific references for facilitating the intensive utilization of urban resources and optimizing the spatial development pattern of urban agglomeration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper estimates the bilateral trade costs between Bangladesh and its leading trading partners before investigating the factors that influence Bangladesh's import costs, including the contribution of NTMs. To measure implied bilateral trade costs, we first deploy an inverse gravity equation. We then estimate the determinants of import trade costs at the HS 6-digit product level, applying PPML estimation techniques to a gravity model, using a unique new NTM database developed for the current study. Our results show that imports to Bangladesh are related in an expected way to common trade cost proxies and that NTMs negatively impact imports. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The summertime eastward jet (SEJ) in the South China Sea (SCS) can be regarded as the boundary between the southern and northern upper circulation of the SCS in climatology. The dynamic process of SEJ migration in response to the variation of SCS summer monsoon (SCSSM) strength on the interannual scale is investigated, based on the Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA) dataset and by a 1.5‐layer reduced gravity model. Analysis shows that SEJ position is closely related to SCSSM strength, with southward/northward migration of SEJ coinciding with stronger/weaker SCSSM. Besides migration of wind stress curl (WSC) zero‐line and north‐south difference of WSC variation, the north‐south difference of the SCS upper layer thickness (ULT) in summer, that is, thick in the southern SCS and thin in the northern SCS, also plays a significant role in the dynamic process of SEJ migration. It is the joint effect of wind strength and ULT distribution. With the variation of SCSSM strength, the thinner ULT in the northern SCS corresponds to the larger magnitude of potential vorticity (PV) variation inputted by wind stress, which leads to more pronounced strengthening/weakening of the western boundary current (WBC) in the northern SCS than that in the southern SCS. Then, the north and south WBCs compete with each other until the upper layer circulation reaches a new equilibrium state, and SEJ migrates southward/northward accordingly. Plain Language Summary: The summertime eastward jet (SEJ) in the South China Sea (SCS) plays a significant role in the regional climate and ecosystem by transporting the coastal cold water with high chlorophyll‐a concentration into the interior sea, and thus its north‐south migration from year to year is an important issue. Analysis shows that with enhanced/weakened summer monsoon in the SCS, the SEJ migrates southward/northward. Our study aims to understand their relationship better and highlight the role of the summer upper layer thickness difference between the southern and northern basins. With the variation of summer monsoon strength, the circulation of the thinner water column responds more significantly than that of the thicker water column, and then SEJ migrates southward/northward. This is another important perspective to understand the migration of the summertime eastward jet, besides the migration of zero‐line of wind stress curl and the difference of monsoon variation over the southern and northern basins. Key Points: The summertime eastward jet migrates southward/northward with enhanced/weakened summer monsoon in the South China SeaIts migration is caused by different variations of potential vorticity input between southern and northern basinsBesides the effect of wind stress curl, the joint effect of monsoon strength and upper layer thickness distribution also plays a role [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we develop a structural gravity model to analyse the effects of the ongoing COVID‐19 pandemic on international trade in food and agriculture. Using detailed data on trade flows, we estimate the trade impacts of the pandemic for major sectors in food and agriculture. Supply‐side impacts on trade caused by reductions in labour tend to be largest in labour‐intensive sectors such as meat processing and processed fruit and vegetables. The supply‐side export effects are dwarfed by the demand‐side import effects, as the recessionary impact of the pandemic drives significant decreases in imports, largely in processed goods and labour‐intensive commodities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Do political differences, which are becoming increasingly acute among Americans, inhibit market transactions? We study this by examining whether the perceived political distance between investors and borrowers in an online lending market affects whom investors choose to fund. Using two complementary empirical approaches (a gravity model and a difference-in-differences analysis), we find a nuanced effect: Investors from comparatively conservative states consider political distance when making lending decisions, whereas investors from comparatively liberal states do not. Lending activity drops by as much as 11.6% when the investor's state is more conservative than the borrower's state. We also find that political distance between investors and borrowers reduces the likelihood that a borrower's listing will be funded, thereby limiting the ability of the market to fulfill its function. However, political distance does not predict loan performance, which is consistent with another finding: The relationship of political distance to lending activity is not significant for experienced investors. It may be that investors stop considering political distance after they learn from experience that it does not predict loan performance. We find evidence for two mechanisms underlying our results: (1) a preference-based mechanism, in which investors from conservative states have a general preference for borrowers from conservative states, and (2) a rationality-based mechanism in which investors from conservative states use political ideology as a signal of creditworthiness (rightly or wrongly). Our results contribute to the literatures on online frictions and political (in)tolerance and have implications for the design of online lending (and other) markets. This paper was accepted by Kartik Hosanagar, information systems. Supplemental Material: The data files and online appendix are available at https://doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2022.4575. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many theoretical works aim to describe the spatial structure of the US, where spatial relations have undergone continuous change. The authors describe the economic spatial structure of the US through bidimensional regression analysis based on a gravity model. The spatial image of megaregions can be examined by can be examined through comparison with the authors' practical results. To what extent does the structure of the economic space justify megaregional delimitations? The most important economic spatial structural changes between 2001 and 2020 have also been identified. Moreover, the forces behind changes, which are seen as potential for development, are examined. Our goal is not to create and present a new model that overwrites the existing ones, but rather to contribute to deeper understanding of the US economic spatial structure and its relation to megaregions through a new methodological approach. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]