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Fairly good yield outlook for the EU-28 Excellent conditions in Spain; less positive in western Europe, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Winter cereals back to five-year average Grain maize and sunflower yield prospects remain positive, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Arrival of the first frosts Somewhat difficult sowing and emergence conditions but no major concerns, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Good start to the season and sowing progress - Concerns in Poland and Ukraine after unfavourable winter, JRC.D.5-Food Security

Temperatures since the end of November have been significantly higher than average in large areas of central (Czech Republic, Germany), eastern (Bulgaria, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and Belarus) and northern Europe (Denmark, Poland, Finland, Sweden and the Baltic countries). Winter crops were prevented from gaining frost tolerance due to the mild temperatures in these regions, and are now potentially exposed to frost kill if temperatures abruptly move to seasonal values — even though this is not forecast for the coming days. In Ireland and the United Kingdom, overly wet conditions have persisted since November and will continue in the coming week according to the weather forecast. In Romania, the surplus of precipitation peaked at the end of November. Large parts of southern Europe (southern France, Croatia, Italy, Slovenia and the western Iberian Peninsula) have faced a persistent lack of precipitation since the beginning of November, which is forecast to continue over the coming days, except in northern Spain and Portugal where significant rain is forecast., JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Temperatures from the end of October until mid-November were well above average across most of Europe, and the highest in our records (since 1975) for the United Kingdom, France, Germany, Scandinavia and the Baltic countries. Such temperatures are beneficial to the development of the emerged winter crops. Conditions improved in Poland, Ukraine and Russia, where beneficial rains and higher temperatures provided relief from the difficulties reported in the previous bulletin. The preceding unfavourable germination conditions may yet have a knock-on effect on next year’s yields, depending on the winter and spring conditions to come. A large belt in central and eastern Europe is experiencing a period of rain scarcity, which has been beneficial for the sowing and emergence of winter crops. Most of these regions faced excessive rainfall during the first half of October. In southern Italy, torrential rain occurred at the end of October, prior to the sowing of winter crops. High positive rainfall anomalies have been recorded in the north-western United Kingdom, but not in crop-growing regions., JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Yield forecasts for summer crops at EU-28 level remain low and are comparable to last month’s forecast. September was warmer than usual in northern, eastern and south-eastern Europe and colder than usual in western Europe. October has generally been colder than usual so far, especially during the second dekad, when negative minimum temperatures occurred in many areas of central and eastern Europe. Wetterthan- usual conditions were recorded in south-eastern Europe, south-eastern France, central and southern Italy, northern Germany and several parts of northern Europe. Large areas in south-eastern Europe faced a period of abundant rains slowing down the harvesting activities of maize and sunflower and hampering the sowing of winter crops. Dry conditions have persisted in Poland, Lithuania, western Ukraine and southern Russia. In these regions, the winter crops sown in September germinated under unfavourable conditions which further worsened due to the low temperatures that occurred in October. The sowing of winter cereals has progressed without major problems in the EU’s largest producing states, France, Germany and the UK., JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Extreme droughts, heat waves, frosts, precipitation, wind storms and other climate extremes may impact the structure, composition and functioning of terrestrial ecosystems, and thus carbon cycling and its feedbacks to the climate system. Yet, the interconnected avenues through which climate extremes drive ecological and physiological processes and alter the carbon balance are poorly understood. Here, we review the literature on carbon cycle relevant responses of ecosystems to extreme climatic events. Given that impacts of climate extremes are considered disturbances, we assume the respective general disturbance-induced mechanisms and processes to also operate in an extreme context. The paucity of well-defined studies currently renders a quantitative meta-analysis impossible, but permits us to develop a deductive framework for identifying the main mechanisms (and coupling thereof) through which climate extremes may act on the carbon cycle. We find that ecosystem responses can exceed the duration of the climate impacts via lagged effects on the carbon cycle. The expected regional impacts of future climate extremes will depend on changes in the probability and severity of their occurrence, on the compound effects and timing of different climate extremes, and on the vulnerability of each land-cover type modulated by management. Although processes and sensitivities differ among biomes, based on expert opinion, we expect forests to exhibit the largest net effect of extremes due to their large carbon pools and fluxes, potentially large indirect and lagged impacts, and long recovery time to regain previous stocks. At the global scale, we presume that droughts have the strongest and most widespread effects on terrestrial carbon cycling. Comparing impacts of climate extremes identified via remote sensing vs. ground-based observational case studies reveals that many regions in the (sub-)tropics are understudied. Hence, regional investigations are needed to allow a global upscaling of the impacts of climate extremes on global carbon-climate feedbacks.

Crop Monitoring in Europe CAMPAIGN REVIEW, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Crop Monitoring in Europe, JRC.H.4-Monitoring Agricultural Resources

Small island developing states that wish to sustain their freshwater resources face two main challenges: intensification of agriculture and climate change and variability. These topics were studied on the main island of the Kingdom of Tonga, Tongatapu (272 km2 , 175°12'W, 21°08'S). In 1987, a squash (Cucurbita maxima L.) industry emerged on Tongatapu that solely exports to the Japanese market during an off-season niche period in November. At a national level, the squash industry has accounted for about 40% of the total export revenue. With the export of the squash, a ten-fold increase in the importation and use of agri-chemicals has occurred. At the same time an increased population (currently 100.000) puts pressure on the fresh groundwater resources of the island (there is no surface water on Tongatapu). These pressures include both pollution and an increase in pumping that leads to salt water intrusion. Coupled with expected sea level rise, and an increase in the frequency of El Niño episodes, this puts the water resources and the environment under pressure. Research was done on two scales, the so-called field scale and the island scale. At the field scale measurements and modelling was carried out of plant transpiration using heat-pulse and meteorological measurements made in this tropical maritime climate, water movement, and nitrate and ammonium transport using a hydraulic characterisation of the soil. The leaching of nitrates and ammonium from the field was quantified using fluxmeters and alternative agricultural strategies were proposed. The hydraulic transfer properties of the limestone aquifer were deduced from the time lag between the variations in rainfall and salinity measurements of the freshwater lens. Using an unique 10-year dataset of monitored salinity of pumped water and a model, it was shown that the rainfall variations related to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation determined the quality of the freshwater in the aquifer. It was also possible to predict the relative salinity of the freshwater 10 months in advance using the Southern Oscillation Index. The pressures on the water resources that result from agricultural and climatic impacts need to be resolved through a balanced management strategy. This management strategy should at one hand account for the benefits and impacts of agriculture to the long-term economical development of the coral atoll, and on the other hand use climatic information and predictability to harness the islands water resources against impacts of climate variability and change. Finally, the case-study of Tongatapu was used to sketch a framework for the sustainable development of a small island developing state. (AGRO 3) -- UCL, 2006