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154. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

Author

Calvin, Katherine, additional, Dasgupta, Dipak, additional, Krinner, Gerhard, additional, Mukherji, Aditi, additional, Thorne, Peter W., additional, Trisos, Christopher, additional, Romero, José, additional, Aldunce, Paulina, additional, Barret, Ko, additional, Blanco, Gabriel, additional, Cheung, William W.L., additional, Connors, Sarah L., additional, Denton, Fatima, additional, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, additional, Dodman, David, additional, Garschagen, Matthias, additional, Geden, Oliver, additional, Hayward, Bronwyn, additional, Jones, Christopher, additional, Jotzo, Frank, additional, Krug, Thelma, additional, Lasco, Rodel, additional, Lee, Yune-Yi, additional, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, additional, Meinshausen, Malte, additional, Mintenbeck, Katja, additional, Mokssit, Abdalah, additional, Otto, Friederike E.L., additional, Pathak, Minal, additional, Pirani, Anna, additional, Poloczanska, Elvira, additional, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, additional, Revi, Aromar, additional, Roberts, Debra C., additional, Roy, Joyashree, additional, Ruane, Alex C., additional, Skea, Jim, additional, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., additional, Slade, Raphael, additional, Slangen, Aimée, additional, Sokona, Youba, additional, Sörensson, Anna A., additional, Tignor, Melinda, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef, additional, Wei, Yi-Ming, additional, Winkler, Harald, additional, Zhai, Panmao, additional, Zommers, Zinta, additional, Hourcade, Jean-Charles, additional, Johnson, Francis X., additional, Pachauri, Shonali, additional, Simpson, Nicholas P., additional, Singh, Chandni, additional, Thomas, Adelle, additional, Totin, Edmond, additional, Alegría, Andrés, additional, Armour, Kyle, additional, Bednar-Friedl, Birgit, additional, Blok, Kornelis, additional, Cissé, Guéladio, additional, Dentener, Frank, additional, Eriksen, Siri, additional, Fischer, Erich, additional, Garner, Gregory, additional, Guivarch, Céline, additional, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, additional, Hansen, Gerrit, additional, Hauser, Mathias, additional, Hawkins, Ed, additional, Hermans, Tim, additional, Kopp, Robert, additional, Leprince-Ringuet, Noëmie, additional, Lewis, Jared, additional, Ley, Debora, additional, Ludden, Chloé, additional, Niamir, Leila, additional, Nicholls, Zebedee, additional, Some, Shreya, additional, Szopa, Sophie, additional, Trewin, Blair, additional, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, additional, Winter, Gundula, additional, Witting, Maximilian, additional, Birt, Arlene, additional, and Ha, Meeyoung, additional

Published
2023
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155. Rapidly evolving aerosol emissions are a dangerous omission from near-term climate risk assessments

Author

Persad, G, primary, Samset, B H, additional, Wilcox, L J, additional, Allen, Robert J, additional, Bollasina, Massimo A, additional, Booth, Ben B B, additional, Bonfils, Céline, additional, Crocker, Tom, additional, Joshi, Manoj, additional, Lund, Marianne T, additional, Marvel, Kate, additional, Merikanto, Joonas, additional, Nordling, Kalle, additional, Undorf, Sabine, additional, van Vuuren, Detlef P, additional, Westervelt, Daniel M, additional, and Zhao, Alcide, additional

Published
2023
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161. Shared Socio-Economic Pathways of the Energy Sector – Quantifying the Narratives

Author

Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Emmerling, Johannes, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Hilaire, Jérôme, Eom, Jiyong, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Mouratiadou, Ioanna, Sytze de Boer, Harmen, van den Berg, Maarten, Carrara, Samuel, Daioglou, Vassilis, Drouet, Laurent, Edmonds, James E., Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Johnson, Nils, Klein, David, Kyle, Page, Marangoni, Giacomo, Masui, Toshihiko, Pietzcker, Robert C., Strubegger, Manfred, Wise, Marshall, Riahi, Keywan, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2017
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162. Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Author

Rao, Shilpa, Klimont, Zbigniew, Smith, Steven J., Van Dingenen, Rita, Dentener, Frank, Bouwman, Lex, Riahi, Keywan, Amann, Markus, Bodirsky, Benjamin Leon, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Calvin, Katherine, Drouet, Laurent, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gernaat, David, Havlik, Petr, Harmsen, Mathijs, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Heyes, Chris, Hilaire, Jérôme, Luderer, Gunnar, Masui, Toshihiko, Stehfest, Elke, Strefler, Jessica, van der Sluis, Sietske, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2017
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163. The Shared Socioeconomic Pathways and their energy, land use, and greenhouse gas emissions implications: An overview

Author

Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Kriegler, Elmar, Edmonds, Jae, O’Neill, Brian C., Fujimori, Shinichiro, Bauer, Nico, Calvin, Katherine, Dellink, Rob, Fricko, Oliver, Lutz, Wolfgang, Popp, Alexander, Cuaresma, Jesus Crespo, KC, Samir, Leimbach, Marian, Jiang, Leiwen, Kram, Tom, Rao, Shilpa, Emmerling, Johannes, Ebi, Kristie, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Havlik, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Da Silva, Lara Aleluia, Smith, Steve, Stehfest, Elke, Bosetti, Valentina, Eom, Jiyong, Gernaat, David, Masui, Toshihiko, Rogelj, Joeri, Strefler, Jessica, Drouet, Laurent, Krey, Volker, Luderer, Gunnar, Harmsen, Mathijs, Takahashi, Kiyoshi, Baumstark, Lavinia, Doelman, Jonathan C., Kainuma, Mikiko, Klimont, Zbigniew, Marangoni, Giacomo, Lotze-Campen, Hermann, Obersteiner, Michael, Tabeau, Andrzej, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2017
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164. Energy, land-use and greenhouse gas emissions trajectories under a green growth paradigm

Author

van Vuuren, Detlef P., Stehfest, Elke, Gernaat, David E.H.J., Doelman, Jonathan C., van den Berg, Maarten, Harmsen, Mathijs, de Boer, Harmen Sytze, Bouwman, Lex F., Daioglou, Vassilis, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Girod, Bastien, Kram, Tom, Lassaletta, Luis, Lucas, Paul L., van Meijl, Hans, Müller, Christoph, van Ruijven, Bas J., van der Sluis, Sietske, and Tabeau, Andrzej

Published
2017
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166. Taking stock of national climate policies to evaluate implementation of the Paris Agreement

Author

Roelfsema, Mark, van Soest, Heleen L., Harmsen, Mathijs, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Bertram, Christoph, den Elzen, Michel, Höhne, Niklas, Iacobuta, Gabriela, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Luderer, Gunnar, Riahi, Keywan, Ueckerdt, Falko, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Frank, Stefan, Fricko, Oliver, Gidden, Matthew, Humpenöder, Florian, Huppmann, Daniel, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Gi, Keii, Keramidas, Kimon, Köberle, Alexandre C., Aleluia Reis, Lara, Rochedo, Pedro, Schaeffer, Roberto, Oshiro, Ken, Vrontisi, Zoi, Chen, Wenying, Iyer, Gokul C., Edmonds, Jae, Kannavou, Maria, Jiang, Kejun, Mathur, Ritu, Safonov, George, and Vishwanathan, Saritha Sudharmma

Published
2020
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168. Effects of emissions allocations and ambition assessments immediately based on equity

Author

Robiou du Pont, Yann, Dekker, Mark, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Schaeffer, Michiel

Subjects
Climate justice, Emissions mitigation, Climate mitigation, Climate change, Paris Agreement, Equity
Abstract

Preprint of article submitted to peer-review on June 11, 2023. Abstract: National emissions targets are collectively insufficient to align with the Paris Agreement. The literature quantifying national emissions trajectories based on equity principles will inform the Global Stocktake on the ambition of national 2030 targets. Ambition assessments based on trajectories that start at present-day emissions levels inherently reward past inaction thus far, and increasingly do so into the future. Here we quantify emissions trajectories based on equity principles applied with immediate effect. We find national targets of G7 countries, Russia and China responsible for most of the global ambition gap, while only those of some countries in the Global South align with their 1.5°C allocation. Discontinuous trajectories not starting at current emissions levels imply stronger international support that can mobilize the capital needed to implement the 1.5°C trajectory globally. The difference between allocation with or without discontinuity has remarkable consequences for the relative implied contributions among high-income countries to international support., Material submitted to peer-review on the June 11th, 2023.

Published
2023
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170. Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility

Author

Harmsen, Mathijs, Tabak, Charlotte, Höglund-Isaksson, Lena, Humpenöder, Florian, Purohit, Pallav, van Vuuren, Detlef, Environmental Sciences, and Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change

Abstract

Despite its projected crucial role in stringent, future global climate policy, non-CO 2 greenhouse gas (NCGG) mitigation remains a large uncertain factor in climate research. A revision of the estimated mitigation potential has implications for the feasibility of global climate policy to reach the Paris Agreement climate goals. Here, we provide a systematic bottom-up estimate of the total uncertainty in NCGG mitigation, by developing 'optimistic', 'default' and 'pessimistic' long-term NCGG marginal abatement cost (MAC) curves, based on a comprehensive literature review of mitigation options. The global 1.5-degree climate target is found to be out of reach under pessimistic MAC assumptions, as is the 2-degree target under high emission assumptions. In a 2-degree scenario, MAC uncertainty translates into a large projected range in relative NCGG reduction (40-58%), carbon budget (±120 Gt CO 2) and policy costs (±16%). Partly, the MAC uncertainty signifies a gap that could be bridged by human efforts, but largely it indicates uncertainty in technical limitations.

Published
2023

171. Limited emission reductions from fuel subsidy removal except in energy-exporting regions

Author

Jewell, Jessica, McCollum, David, Emmerling, Johannes, Bertram, Christoph, Gernaat, David E. H. J., Krey, Volker, Paroussos, Leonidas, Berger, Loc, Fragkiadakis, Kostas, Keppo, Ilkka, Saadi, Nawfal, Tavoni, Massimo, van Vuuren, Detlef, Vinichenko, Vadim, and Riahi, Keywan

Subjects
Fossil fuels -- Environmental aspects -- Government finance, Emissions (Pollution) -- Control, Environmental issues, Science and technology, Zoology and wildlife conservation
Abstract

Author(s): Jessica Jewell (corresponding author) [1, 2]; David McCollum [1, 3]; Johannes Emmerling [4, 5]; Christoph Bertram [6]; David E. H. J. Gernaat [7, 8]; Volker Krey [1]; Leonidas Paroussos [...]

Published
2018
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172. Interaction of consumer preferences and climate policies in the global transition to low-carbon vehicles

Author

McCollum, David L., Wilson, Charlie, Bevione, Michela, Carrara, Samuel, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Emmerling, Johannes, Guivarch, Céline, Karkatsoulis, Panagiotis, Keppo, Ilkka, Krey, Volker, Lin, Zhenhong, Broin, Eoin Ó, Paroussos, Leonidas, Pettifor, Hazel, Ramea, Kalai, Riahi, Keywan, Sano, Fuminori, Rodriguez, Baltazar Solano, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2018
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173. Energy investment needs for fulfilling the Paris Agreement and achieving the Sustainable Development Goals

Author

McCollum, David L., Zhou, Wenji, Bertram, Christoph, de Boer, Harmen-Sytze, Bosetti, Valentina, Busch, Sebastian, Després, Jacques, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fay, Marianne, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Gidden, Matthew, Harmsen, Mathijs, Huppmann, Daniel, Iyer, Gokul, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Nicolas, Claire, Pachauri, Shonali, Parkinson, Simon, Poblete-Cazenave, Miguel, Rafaj, Peter, Rao, Narasimha, Rozenberg, Julie, Schmitz, Andreas, Schoepp, Wolfgang, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Riahi, Keywan

Published
2018
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174. Residual fossil CO2 emissions in 1.5–2 °C pathways

Author

Luderer, Gunnar, Vrontisi, Zoi, Bertram, Christoph, Edelenbosch, Oreane Y., Pietzcker, Robert C., Rogelj, Joeri, De Boer, Harmen Sytze, Drouet, Laurent, Emmerling, Johannes, Fricko, Oliver, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Havlík, Petr, Iyer, Gokul, Keramidas, Kimon, Kitous, Alban, Pehl, Michaja, Krey, Volker, Riahi, Keywan, Saveyn, Bert, Tavoni, Massimo, Van Vuuren, Detlef P., and Kriegler, Elmar

Published
2018
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176. Scenarios towards limiting global mean temperature increase below 1.5 °C

Author

Rogelj, Joeri, Popp, Alexander, Calvin, Katherine V., Luderer, Gunnar, Emmerling, Johannes, Gernaat, David, Fujimori, Shinichiro, Strefler, Jessica, Hasegawa, Tomoko, Marangoni, Giacomo, Krey, Volker, Kriegler, Elmar, Riahi, Keywan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Doelman, Jonathan, Drouet, Laurent, Edmonds, Jae, Fricko, Oliver, Harmsen, Mathijs, Havlík, Petr, Humpenöder, Florian, Stehfest, Elke, and Tavoni, Massimo

Published
2018
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179. Uncertainty in non-CO2 greenhouse gas mitigation contributes to ambiguity in global climate policy feasibility

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Harmsen, Mathijs, Tabak, Charlotte, Höglund-Isaksson, Lena, Humpenöder, Florian, Purohit, Pallav, van Vuuren, Detlef, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Harmsen, Mathijs, Tabak, Charlotte, Höglund-Isaksson, Lena, Humpenöder, Florian, Purohit, Pallav, and van Vuuren, Detlef

Published
2023

182. Employee skills for circular business model implementation: A taxonomy

Author

Environmental Sciences, Innovation Studies, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Dynamics of Innovation Systems, Straub, Lucas, Hartley, Kris, Dyakonov, Ivan, Gupta, Harsh, van Vuuren, Detlef, Kirchherr, Julian, Environmental Sciences, Innovation Studies, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Dynamics of Innovation Systems, Straub, Lucas, Hartley, Kris, Dyakonov, Ivan, Gupta, Harsh, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Kirchherr, Julian

Published
2023

183. Representation of adaptation in quantitative climate assessments

Author

Environmental Sciences, van Maanen, Nicole, Lissner, Tabea, Harmsen, Mathijs, Piontek, Franziska, Andrijevic, Marina, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, van Maanen, Nicole, Lissner, Tabea, Harmsen, Mathijs, Piontek, Franziska, Andrijevic, Marina, and van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2023

185. Achieving a nature- and people-positive future

Author

Environmental Sciences, Obura, David O., DeClerck, Fabrice, Verburg, Peter H., Gupta, Joyeeta, Abrams, Jesse F., Bai, Xuemei, Bunn, Stuart, Ebi, Kristie L., Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Chris, Jacobson, Lisa, Lenton, Timothy M., Liverman, Diana, Mohamed, Awaz, Prodani, Klaudia, Rocha, Juan Carlos, Rockström, Johan, Sakschewski, Boris, Stewart-Koster, Ben, van Vuuren, Detlef, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zimm, Caroline, Environmental Sciences, Obura, David O., DeClerck, Fabrice, Verburg, Peter H., Gupta, Joyeeta, Abrams, Jesse F., Bai, Xuemei, Bunn, Stuart, Ebi, Kristie L., Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Chris, Jacobson, Lisa, Lenton, Timothy M., Liverman, Diana, Mohamed, Awaz, Prodani, Klaudia, Rocha, Juan Carlos, Rockström, Johan, Sakschewski, Boris, Stewart-Koster, Ben, van Vuuren, Detlef, Winkelmann, Ricarda, and Zimm, Caroline

Published
2023

186. Uncertain effectiveness of Miscanthus bioenergy expansion for climate change mitigation explored using land surface, agronomic and integrated assessment models

Author

Environmental Sciences, Littleton, Emma W., Shepherd, Anita, Harper, Anna B., Hastings, Astley F.S., Vaughan, Naomi E., Doelman, Jonathan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., Lenton, Timothy M., Environmental Sciences, Littleton, Emma W., Shepherd, Anita, Harper, Anna B., Hastings, Astley F.S., Vaughan, Naomi E., Doelman, Jonathan, van Vuuren, Detlef P., and Lenton, Timothy M.

Published
2023

189. IPCC, 2023: Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policymakers. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [Core Writing Team, H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.)]. IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland.

Author

Lee, Hoesung, Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinner, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter, Trisos, Christopher, Romero, José, Aldunce, Paulina, Barret, Ko, Blanco, Gabriel, Cheung, William W.L., Connors, Sarah L., Denton, Fatima, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Dodman, David, Garschagen, Matthias, Geden, Oliver, Hayward, Bronwyn, Jones, Christopher, Jotzo, Frank, Krug, Thelma, Lasco, Rodel, Lee, Yune-Yi, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Meinshausen, Malte, Mintenbeck, Katja, Mokssit, Abdalah, Otto, Friederike E.L., Pathak, Minal, Pirani, Anna, Poloczanska, Elvira, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Revi, Aromar, Roberts, Debra C., Roy, Joyashree, Ruane, Alex C., Skea, Jim, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., Slade, Raphael, Slangen, Aimée, Sokona, Youba, Sörensson, Anna A., Tignor, Melinda, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wei, Yi-Ming, Winkler, Harald, Zhai, Panmao, Zommers, Zinta, Hourcade, Jean-Charles, Johnson, Francis X., Pachauri, Shonali, Simpson, Nicholas P., Singh, Chandni, Thomas, Adelle, Totin, Edmond, Arias, Paola, Bustamante, Mercedes, Elgizouli, Ismail, Flato, Gregory, Howden, Mark, Méndez-Vallejo, Carlos, Pereira, Joy Jacqueline, Pichs-Madruga, Ramón, Rose, Steven K., Saheb, Yamina, Sánchez Rodríguez, Roberto, Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, Xiao, Cunde, Yassaa, Noureddine, Alegría, Andrés, Armour, Kyle, Bednar-Friedl, Birgit, Blok, Kornelis, Cissé, Guéladio, Dentener, Frank, Eriksen, Siri, Fischer, Erich, Garner, Gregory, Guivarch, Céline, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Hansen, Gerrit, Hauser, Mathias, Hawkins, Ed, Hermans, Tim, Kopp, Robert, Leprince-Ringuet, Noëmie, Lewis, Jared, Ley, Debora, Ludden, Chloé, Niamir, Leila, Nicholls, Zebedee, Some, Shreya, Szopa, Sophie, Trewin, Blair, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, Winter, Gundula, Witting, Maximilian, Birt, Arlene, Ha, Meeyoung, Kim, Jinmi, Haites, Erik F., Jung, Yonghun, Stavins, Robert, Orendain, Dan Jezreel A., Ignon, Lance, Park, Semin, Park, Youngin, Lee, Hoesung, Calvin, Katherine, Dasgupta, Dipak, Krinner, Gerhard, Mukherji, Aditi, Thorne, Peter, Trisos, Christopher, Romero, José, Aldunce, Paulina, Barret, Ko, Blanco, Gabriel, Cheung, William W.L., Connors, Sarah L., Denton, Fatima, Diongue-Niang, Aïda, Dodman, David, Garschagen, Matthias, Geden, Oliver, Hayward, Bronwyn, Jones, Christopher, Jotzo, Frank, Krug, Thelma, Lasco, Rodel, Lee, Yune-Yi, Masson-Delmotte, Valérie, Meinshausen, Malte, Mintenbeck, Katja, Mokssit, Abdalah, Otto, Friederike E.L., Pathak, Minal, Pirani, Anna, Poloczanska, Elvira, Pörtner, Hans-Otto, Revi, Aromar, Roberts, Debra C., Roy, Joyashree, Ruane, Alex C., Skea, Jim, Shukla, Priyadarshi R., Slade, Raphael, Slangen, Aimée, Sokona, Youba, Sörensson, Anna A., Tignor, Melinda, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wei, Yi-Ming, Winkler, Harald, Zhai, Panmao, Zommers, Zinta, Hourcade, Jean-Charles, Johnson, Francis X., Pachauri, Shonali, Simpson, Nicholas P., Singh, Chandni, Thomas, Adelle, Totin, Edmond, Arias, Paola, Bustamante, Mercedes, Elgizouli, Ismail, Flato, Gregory, Howden, Mark, Méndez-Vallejo, Carlos, Pereira, Joy Jacqueline, Pichs-Madruga, Ramón, Rose, Steven K., Saheb, Yamina, Sánchez Rodríguez, Roberto, Ürge-Vorsatz, Diana, Xiao, Cunde, Yassaa, Noureddine, Alegría, Andrés, Armour, Kyle, Bednar-Friedl, Birgit, Blok, Kornelis, Cissé, Guéladio, Dentener, Frank, Eriksen, Siri, Fischer, Erich, Garner, Gregory, Guivarch, Céline, Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Hansen, Gerrit, Hauser, Mathias, Hawkins, Ed, Hermans, Tim, Kopp, Robert, Leprince-Ringuet, Noëmie, Lewis, Jared, Ley, Debora, Ludden, Chloé, Niamir, Leila, Nicholls, Zebedee, Some, Shreya, Szopa, Sophie, Trewin, Blair, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, Winter, Gundula, Witting, Maximilian, Birt, Arlene, Ha, Meeyoung, Kim, Jinmi, Haites, Erik F., Jung, Yonghun, Stavins, Robert, Orendain, Dan Jezreel A., Ignon, Lance, Park, Semin, and Park, Youngin

Abstract

This Synthesis Report (SYR) of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) summarises the state of knowledge of climate change, its widespread impacts and risks, and climate change mitigation and adaptation. It integrates the main findings of the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) based on contributions from the three Working Groups1 , and the three Special Reports. The summary for Policymakers (SPM) is structured in three parts: SPM.A Current Status and Trends, SPM.B Future Climate Change, Risks, and Long-Term Responses, and SPM.C Responses in the Near Term.This report recognizes the interdependence of climate, ecosystems and biodiversity, and human societies; the value of diverse forms of knowledge; and the close linkages between climate change adaptation, mitigation, ecosystem health, human well-being and sustainable development, and reflects the increasing diversity of actors involved in climate action. Based on scientific understanding, key findings can be formulated as statements of fact or associated with an assessed level of confidence using the IPCC calibrated language.

Published
2023

190. Healthy lives and well-being for all at all ages: expanding representations of determinants of health within systems dynamics and integrated assessment models

Author

Environmental Sciences, Institute for Risk Assesment Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, IRAS OH Epidemiology Chemical Agents, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, IRAS – One Health Chemical, Weber, Eartha, Downward, George, Pinho, Maria G. M., Van Vuuren, Detlef P., Environmental Sciences, Institute for Risk Assesment Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, IRAS OH Epidemiology Chemical Agents, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, IRAS – One Health Chemical, Weber, Eartha, Downward, George, Pinho, Maria G. M., and Van Vuuren, Detlef P.

Published
2023

191. From future diets to dishes: communicating dietary shift associated with a 1.5°C scenario for Brazil, China, Sweden and the United Kingdom

Author

Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Lee, Susan, Freer, Muir, Wood, Ruth, Edelenbosch, Oreane, Sharmina, Maria, Doelman, Jonathan, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wilson, Charlie, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Environmental Sciences, Lee, Susan, Freer, Muir, Wood, Ruth, Edelenbosch, Oreane, Sharmina, Maria, Doelman, Jonathan, van Vuuren, Detlef, and Wilson, Charlie

Published
2023

192. Spread in climate policy scenarios unravelled

Author

Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Dekker, Mark M, Hof, Andries F, van den Berg, Maarten, Daioglou, Vassilis, van Heerden, Rik, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Environmental Sciences, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Dekker, Mark M, Hof, Andries F, van den Berg, Maarten, Daioglou, Vassilis, van Heerden, Rik, van der Wijst, Kaj-Ivar, and van Vuuren, Detlef P

Published
2023

193. Costs and benefits of protecting linear landscape elements: Applying systematic conservation planning on a case study in the Netherlands

Author

Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Aschi, Flavia, Dekker, Stefan C, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Bogaart, Patrick W, Rijsdijk, Kenneth F, van Loon, E Emiel, Global Ecohydrology and Sustainability, Environmental Sciences, Aschi, Flavia, Dekker, Stefan C, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Bogaart, Patrick W, Rijsdijk, Kenneth F, and van Loon, E Emiel

Published
2023

194. Identifying energy model fingerprints in mitigation scenarios

Author

Dekker, Mark M. (author), Daioglou, Vassilis (author), Pietzcker, Robert (author), Rodrigues, Renato (author), de Boer, Harmen Sytze (author), Dalla Longa, Francesco (author), Drouet, Laurent (author), Emmerling, Johannes (author), Fattahi, Amir (author), Fotiou, Theofano (author), Fragkos, Panagiotis (author), Fricko, Oliver (author), Gusheva, E. (author), Harmsen, Mathijs (author), Huppmann, Daniel (author), Kannavou, Maria (author), Krey, Volker (author), Lombardi, F. (author), Luderer, Gunnar (author), Pfenninger, Stefan (author), Tsiropoulos, Ioannis (author), Zakeri, Behnam (author), van der Zwaan, Bob (author), Usher, Will (author), van Vuuren, Detlef (author), Dekker, Mark M. (author), Daioglou, Vassilis (author), Pietzcker, Robert (author), Rodrigues, Renato (author), de Boer, Harmen Sytze (author), Dalla Longa, Francesco (author), Drouet, Laurent (author), Emmerling, Johannes (author), Fattahi, Amir (author), Fotiou, Theofano (author), Fragkos, Panagiotis (author), Fricko, Oliver (author), Gusheva, E. (author), Harmsen, Mathijs (author), Huppmann, Daniel (author), Kannavou, Maria (author), Krey, Volker (author), Lombardi, F. (author), Luderer, Gunnar (author), Pfenninger, Stefan (author), Tsiropoulos, Ioannis (author), Zakeri, Behnam (author), van der Zwaan, Bob (author), Usher, Will (author), and van Vuuren, Detlef (author)

Abstract

Energy models are used to study emissions mitigation pathways, such as those compatible with the Paris Agreement goals. These models vary in structure, objectives, parameterization and level of detail, yielding differences in the computed energy and climate policy scenarios. To study model differences, diagnostic indicators are common practice in many academic fields, for example, in the physical climate sciences. However, they have not yet been applied systematically in mitigation literature, beyond addressing individual model dimensions. Here we address this gap by quantifying energy model typology along five dimensions: responsiveness, mitigation strategies, energy supply, energy demand and mitigation costs and effort, each expressed through several diagnostic indicators. The framework is applied to a diagnostic experiment with eight energy models in which we explore ten scenarios focusing on Europe. Comparing indicators to the ensemble yields comprehensive ‘energy model fingerprints’, which describe systematic model behaviour and contextualize model differences for future multi-model comparison studies., Energie and Industrie

Published
2023
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196. Towards a better future for biodiversity and people : Modelling Nature Futures

Author

Kim, Hye Jin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, Pereira, Henrique M., Kim, Hye Jin, Peterson, Garry D., Cheung, William W.L., Ferrier, Simon, Alkemade, Rob, Arneth, Almut, Kuiper, Jan J., Okayasu, Sana, Pereira, Laura, Acosta, Lilibeth A., Chaplin-Kramer, Rebecca, den Belder, Eefje, Eddy, Tyler D., Johnson, Justin A., Karlsson-Vinkhuyzen, Sylvia, Kok, Marcel T.J., Leadley, Paul, Leclère, David, Lundquist, Carolyn J., Rondinini, Carlo, Scholes, Robert J., Schoolenberg, Machteld A., Shin, Yunne Jai, Stehfest, Elke, Stephenson, Fabrice, Visconti, Piero, van Vuuren, Detlef, Wabnitz, Colette C.C., José Alava, Juan, Cuadros-Casanova, Ivon, Davies, Kathryn K., Gasalla, Maria A., Halouani, Ghassen, Harfoot, Mike, Hashimoto, Shizuka, Hickler, Thomas, Hirsch, Tim, Kolomytsev, Grigory, Miller, Brian W., Ohashi, Haruka, Gabriela Palomo, Maria, Popp, Alexander, Paco Remme, Roy, Saito, Osamu, Rashid Sumalia, U., Willcock, Simon, and Pereira, Henrique M.

Abstract

The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life.

Published
2023

197. Safe and just Earth system boundaries

Author

Environmental Sciences, Rockström, Johan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Qin, Dahe, Lade, Steven J, Abrams, Jesse F, Andersen, Lauren S, Armstrong McKay, David I, Bai, Xuemei, Bala, Govindasamy, Bunn, Stuart E, Ciobanu, Daniel, DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie, Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Christopher, Hasan, Syezlin, Kanie, Norichika, Lenton, Timothy M, Loriani, Sina, Liverman, Diana M, Mohamed, Awaz, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Ospina, Daniel, Prodani, Klaudia, Rammelt, Crelis, Sakschewski, Boris, Scholtens, Joeri, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Tharammal, Thejna, van Vuuren, Detlef, Verburg, Peter H, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zimm, Caroline, Bennett, Elena M, Bringezu, Stefan, Broadgate, Wendy, Green, Pamela A, Huang, Lei, Jacobson, Lisa, Ndehedehe, Christopher, Pedde, Simona, Rocha, Juan, Scheffer, Marten, Schulte-Uebbing, Lena, de Vries, Wim, Xiao, Cunde, Xu, Chi, Xu, Xinwu, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, Zhang, Xin, Environmental Sciences, Rockström, Johan, Gupta, Joyeeta, Qin, Dahe, Lade, Steven J, Abrams, Jesse F, Andersen, Lauren S, Armstrong McKay, David I, Bai, Xuemei, Bala, Govindasamy, Bunn, Stuart E, Ciobanu, Daniel, DeClerck, Fabrice, Ebi, Kristie, Gifford, Lauren, Gordon, Christopher, Hasan, Syezlin, Kanie, Norichika, Lenton, Timothy M, Loriani, Sina, Liverman, Diana M, Mohamed, Awaz, Nakicenovic, Nebojsa, Obura, David, Ospina, Daniel, Prodani, Klaudia, Rammelt, Crelis, Sakschewski, Boris, Scholtens, Joeri, Stewart-Koster, Ben, Tharammal, Thejna, van Vuuren, Detlef, Verburg, Peter H, Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zimm, Caroline, Bennett, Elena M, Bringezu, Stefan, Broadgate, Wendy, Green, Pamela A, Huang, Lei, Jacobson, Lisa, Ndehedehe, Christopher, Pedde, Simona, Rocha, Juan, Scheffer, Marten, Schulte-Uebbing, Lena, de Vries, Wim, Xiao, Cunde, Xu, Chi, Xu, Xinwu, Zafra-Calvo, Noelia, and Zhang, Xin

Published
2023

198. The use of environmental scenarios to project future health effects: a scoping review

Author

Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, IRAS – One Health Chemical, Weber, Eartha, Downward, George S, Ebi, Kristie L, Lucas, Paul L, van Vuuren, Detlef, Integr. Assessm. Global Environm. Change, Copernicus Institute of Sustainable Development, IRAS – One Health Chemical, Weber, Eartha, Downward, George S, Ebi, Kristie L, Lucas, Paul L, and van Vuuren, Detlef

Published
2023

199. Carbon for soils, not soils for carbon

Author

Environmental Sciences, Moinet, Gabriel Y K, Hijbeek, Renske, van Vuuren, Detlef P, Giller, Ken E, Environmental Sciences, Moinet, Gabriel Y K, Hijbeek, Renske, van Vuuren, Detlef P, and Giller, Ken E

Published
2023

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