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In his article “Magical Narratives: Romance as Genre” Fredric Jameson, emphasises how romance as a narrative form appears and transforms in the contemporary novel. Jameson proposes that the inquiry not only be done through the characters, but their state of minds, the spatiality of these states combined with actions. In this article, the tale of “Avından El Alan” (Eng: Prey) which is one of the twelve fables in The Garden of Departed Cats by Bilge Karasu (Org: Göçmüş Kediler Bahçesi) has been reviewed by Jameson’s method. In the tale, we come across many elements that take part in the traditional tales continue their existence. Nevertheless, the tale becomes a field of connotations of ideas. Language is accompanied by these connotations with expressions that persistently escape being too obvious. In this way, both tales flow together at the same time, and the voice of the narrator, who thinks on those tales, pours out in writing. The fact that Karasu categorizes this story as a fable, and that his creation of a structure that is changed and transformed, by using the elements of the classic fairy tale which enables him to add his fiction to the narratives of the old storytellers that came before him.: Bilge Karasu, Fredric Jameson, Göçmüş Kediler Bahçesi, fairy tale, story

There is very few information in the sources about Ali İlhami Dede, the last postnishin (Mawlavi sheikh) who grew up in the Alevi Bektashi order. His poems are included in several books, while his poems collected by his grandson have been published as a diwan, including the place where his lodge is located and its historical development, especially the environment where he lived in the early 20th century. Apart from the information about the life of Ali İlhami Dede between the lines, the name range of the grandparents and fathers who managed the lodge since the 10th century is very important. In the work in which the place where Battal Gazi is buried in historical sources, his bond with Danişment Gazi, the ties of the Seljuk Khans and Ottoman Sultans with the lodge, the maintenance and repairs they have done are explained in detail, transferring the inscriptions found in the tombs to the court is also important in terms of extracting the Alevi Bektashi lineage. There are 49 poems of Ali İlhami Dede in the Divan. While these poems are seen as four, five and six lines, at the same time, they are written with both syllabic meter and aruz prosody, which is an indication that he knows all the features of Turkish poetry. The subjects of the poems are the love of Hazrat Allah, Hazrat Prophet Muhammad (Pbuh), Hazrat Ali, Hazrat Hasan and Hüseyin, the twelve imams, Karbala, Battal Gazi, Haci Bektashi Veli, and also the beauties of nature, the sect rules, love and the mortality of the world. Ali İlhami Dede used the pen names İlhami, İlhami Abdal, İlhami derviş, İlhami Fakir, Garip İlhami in his poems. In our study, the connection of the Alevi Bektashi sect with Battal Gazi, which is on the council of Ali İlhami Dede, and the subjects and introduction of his poems are included.

As atividades antrópicas em conjunto com a falta de planejamento do uso e conservação, podem ocasionar processos de degradação ambiental, como processos erosivos, assoreamento de corpos hídricos, inundações, entre outros, comprometendo a qualidade do meio ambiente, especialmente dos recursos hídricos. O trabalho teve por objetivo avaliar melhores alternativas de intervenção em relação aos processos de erosão acelerada na bacia hidrográfica do Ribeirão das Pedras (São Paulo, Brasil), integrando informações geotécnicas e de outras áreas de conhecimento. A bacia estende-se por 111,47km2, tendo a maior parte de sua área no município de Santa Cruz das Palmeiras e parcelas menores nos municípios de Tambaú, Pirassununga e Porto Ferreira. A metodologia utilizada se baseou em Pejon (1992) e Pejon e Zuquette (2001) para elaborar uma Carta de Escoamento Superficial Potencial e a determinação de índice de erodibilidade dos materiais inconsolidados, associado a outras características geotécnicas, segundo Pejon e Zuquette (1993). Os resultados mostram forte influência dos materiais inconsolidados e dos usos da terra no potencial erosivo, e indicam que tais feitos podem ser amenizados com ações do poder público local e estadual, com políticas adequadas de uso e ocupação.

The present study is the first review of the recent herpetofauna of the Greater Caucasian caves. Also, it is worth noting some phossylous material on amphibians and reptiles (mainly Pleistocene remains) from the caves in this area. The goal of the study is to fill knowledge gaps and to present long-term data on the cave herpetofauna of the Greater Caucasus. In 1992–2019, amphibians and reptiles were found in 61 Greater Caucasian caves located in an altitude range from 55 m a.s.l. to 1300 m a.s.l. in Russia, Abkhazia, and Georgia. A total of 272 specimens representing ten species have been found. The most frequently observed species were Rana macrocnemis (39.0% of all recorded specimens), Pelodytes caucasicus (17.3%), Bufo verrucosissimus (11.0%), Darevskia brauneri (8.8%), Hyla orientalis (8.1%). The total proportion of the remaining five species (Ommatotriton ophryticus, Hyla savignyi, Pelophylax ridibundus, Anguis colchica, and Darevskia derjugini) was 15.8%. As a rule, representatives of the herpetofauna in the Greater Caucasian caves are quite rare and only single or few individuals are usually found. Exceptions were Fyodorovskaya Cave (Black Sea Region near the city of Sochi), Akshasha Cave, Abshdza Cave and Marshania Verkhnyaya Cave (last three in Abkhazia) where 141 specimens of amphibians and reptiles were observed, i.e. more than half (51.8%) of the totally recorded specimens. They belong to eight species (80.0% of all species found). The caves of the Greater Caucasus foothills, where the vast majority of amphibians and reptiles were observed, are usually characterised by a rich faunal diversity of invertebrate animals – their potential food. Amphibians were recorded from both twilight and deep parts of the caves, whereas lizards were found mainly close to the entrances, where the light penetrates and a relatively high air temperature is observed in the warm period of the year. Probably, some of the Greater Caucasian amphibians and reptiles enter the caves purposefully for wintering, and/or for feeding. The other animals occur accidentally in the caves (especially on the bottom of vertical pits), becoming «prisoners of circumstances». Judging by the length of time spent in the caves and, as a consequence, the change in body pigmentation (lighting of the main colouration tone) and good external condition of many individuals, these amphibians can be considered subtroglophiles. Rana macrocnemis, capable of laying eggs in caves, shows a tendency for eutroglophily.

Roma identity and representation are quite controversial both in academia and among Roma people themselves. The cultural identity of Roma, which primarily foregrounds ethnic constituency, is constructed through the boundary work between the Roma and the Other (Gadjo, non-Roma people). The heterogeneous nature of the Roma identity indicates that it is a contested identity construction process. Examining the effects of intragroup conflicts, which have a significant impact on the establishment of cultural identity, is possible through in-depth and long-term ethnographic research that goes beyond depicting culture as a monolithic discursive repertoire. In this study, the critical ethnographic method has been adopted, which allows us to focus on intragroup conflicts among the Roma people along with the diversity of the representations produced by Roma-Gadjo intercultural communication. Through critical ethnography, the heterogeneous and fragmented cultural structure produced by cultural negotiation and conflict regarding what “authentic” or “real” Roma should be, has been examined. It is done by listening to the points of view and voices of the subjects. Thus, without denying the historical experiences and the potential agency of the research subjects, this study examines how the specific identity representations of the Roma have positioned in hegemonic discourses.

Folk Medicine, which is as old as human history, still maintains its functionality with the practical methods applied in the diagnosis and treatment of some diseases, although modern medical science is advancing and developing day by day. Kazakh Folk Medicine which has a rich and deep-rooted history, is based on belief systems such as Shamanism and Totemism. Today’s folklore, by feeding from different sources up to present and named the origins of folk physicians differently, such as bakshi, labor, awliya, medical, lover, balger, molla, have been examined. In Kazakh bakhshi and medicine a large number of folk physicians have lived and are still living, especially the bakhsi, whose inspiration is Dede Korkut and hiz melody. In this study, some applications of bakhsis who accept Korkut Ata as her master are given. The history and development period of Bakhsi tradition not only in the region where they lived, but also in all Kazakh regions, the source of transition to bakhsi, the place, duty and opinions of the Bakhsian and the opinions put forward about them,in society, The special clothes of Bakhsi and the instruments that are considered to be very important and sacred during the ritual will be introduced and evaluated. In our study, it was emphasized that the treatment methods of the Bakshi, which are the first practitioners of Kazakh folk medicine, were determined and changed shape by going through time.The identification of cultural codes and their transfer to the next generations can be realized in many different ways. When we examine the sources that have survived until today, we see that there are studies based on time-spaceperson-trio. It is aimed to understand, describe and introduce to the science world how Kazakh folk medicine methods and those who carry out this work struggle to exist in the cultural transition period and how it changes shape afterwards.

The decline and isolation of wild megafauna populations are increasingly recognised in Africa. In Côte d'Ivoire where elephants are a national symbol, the Taï National Park (TNP) is a key remaining habitat for Loxodonta cyclotis. However, the interactions between L. cyclotis and its current environmental conditions are less known. This study aims at determining the factors that affect the occupancy patterns of the species at TNP for guiding conservation decision-making. We assessed the species occupancy probability and factors that affect its distribution based on habitat variables and observations from 87 camera traps installed for 120 days within TNP. We used an occupancy model to determine the variables that significantly affect L. cyclotis distribution and to estimate their occupancy probability by site of camera traps installation. We also produced a predictive species distribution map by interpolating occupancy probability values at trapping sites. The key factors that drive the L. cyclotis distribution in the TNP were the distance to the nearest research or ecotourism areas, the distance to the periphery and the rate of poaching index of the installation site. Occupancy probability decreased with closer distance to the TNP periphery and increasing poaching pressures, while it increased with the proximity of research or ecotourism areas. The predictive distribution map indicated that the northwestern and southwestern areas of the TNP had a higher probability (p > 0.6) of L. cyclotis occurrence, compared to other parts of the Protected Area. These results confirm the positive effect of scientific research and ecotourism activities that favour L. cyclotis (and thus other wildlife) conservation. So those activities have to be promoted along with antipoaching strategies.

The theory that forms the basis of TOPMODEL (a topography-based hydrological model) was first outlined by Mike Kirkby some 45 years ago. This paper recalls some of the early developments, the rejection of the first journal paper, the early days of digital terrain analysis, model calibration and validation, the various criticisms of the simplifying assumptions, and the relaxation of those assumptions in the dynamic forms of TOPMODEL. A final section addresses the question of what might be done now in seeking a simple, parametrically parsimonious model of hillslope and small catchment processes if we were starting again.

A person wants to have a sense of belonging and a sense of origin within the cultural structure in which they are located. Relatives play a significant role in such a framework. Especially in primitive societies, the uncle occupies a privileged position and a protective role that is different from other relatives. In maternal societies where the father only plays a fertilizing role, the uncle is responsible as a first-degree relative and is also an appointed heir. Uncle law emerged due to such ties within the family. The formation of a family institution in the developing society over time and the decrease of the influence of the father authority on the child led to a stronger status of his uncle to dissolve. At this point, uncle-father tension emerged. With the full acceptance of the paternal authority in society, over time, the value of the uncle’s social role began to decline. However, the uncle, who plays a strong role in the origins of culture, still has important traces in cultural memory. The change and transformation of the uncle law from the matrilineal society to the paternal society will be explained, its traces in Turkish culture will be defined and explained through stereotypes, narratives and folk practices. The folk law at the background of the word uncle which takes place in many cultural elements will be revealed.

To study high impact tropical cyclone (TC) is of crucial importance due to its extraordinary destruction potential that leads to major losses in many coastal areas in the Western North Pacific (WNP). Nevertheless, because of the rarity of high-impact TCs, it is difficult to construct a robust risk assessment based on the historical best track records. This paper aims to address this issue by introducing a computationally simple and efficient approach, using data from the THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble (TIGGE) archive with the application of impact-oriented tracking algorithm, to build a physically consistent high impact typhoon event set with non-realised TC events – data equivalent to more than 10 000 years of TC events. The temporal and spatial characteristics of the new event set is consistent to the historical TC climatology in the WNP. It is shown that this TC event set contains ~ 100 and ~ 77 times more Very Severe Typhoons and Violent Typhoons than the historical records, respectively. Furthermore, this approach can be used to improve the return period estimation of TC-associated extreme wind. Consequently, a robust extreme TC hazard risk assessment, reflective of the current long-term climate variability phase, can be achieved using this approach.

The word “intellectual” has various meanings due to its flexibility and universality. This concept, which is not easy to put in a certain category, is a comprehensive subject that almost every discipline deals with and sets its own criteria and even creates its own types of intellectual. In the field of literature, it is possible to see types of intellectuals as those who are the representatives of periods, artists, ideologies and movements. It is a critical issue whether intellectuals, which are shaped according to the perspective of the artists, can be evaluated in the category of real intellectuals. The purpose of this study is to discuss the concept of intellectuals around the main character Adnan of Mithat Cemal Kuntay’s Three Istanbul (1938) novel and to determine the limits and characteristics of intellectual identity. To this aim, the concept of intellectual is described within its general framework. Loyalty to intellectual values against money and power; an understanding that does not prioritize personal interests; view of power, opposition and the public; the qualities of artistic and mental productions have been accepted as the main criteria for determining the intellectual identity. Despite his intellectual accumulation, Adnan differs from his intellectual identity by being influenced by materialism and succumbing to his weaknesses. On the basis of the character of Adnan, it is concluded that not every person trained, accumulated and specialized in certain areas can be considered as an authentic intellectual.

A solar energetic particle (SEP) event generates a shower of secondary generated particles in the Earth’s atmosphere down to lower altitudes to cause an atmospheric radiation storm (ARS). The high-energy secondary particles cause additional radiation dose at altitudes where aircraft flies. The space weather information provided by the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) designated space weather centers includes advisories on the solar radiation storm. The Warning System for AVIation Exposure to Solar energetic particle (WASAVIES), we can estimate the effective dose rate (EDR) along the flight path of the aircraft. However, it has not been well established how the operators of aircraft should react with the space weather advisories on the solar radiation storm. By using a flight trajectory generation algorithm and the global EDR distribution, the economic impacts of ARS associated with SEP events on aircraft operation, namely the flight path length, flight time, and fuel consumption, are estimated. The conditions of the peak of the ARS event on 20 January 2005 are used. The economic impacts for a flight route from New York, US to Tokyo, Japan, are estimated with constraints in flight routes to avoid the hazard of radiation and compared with those of the reference case without the ARS effects. The fuel consumption is shown to increase by 39–69 tons (33–58%) for a twin-engine, wide-body jet passenger aircraft, when a constraint is imposed on the flight altitude only. When the constraints are set on the aircraft altitude and the latitude, the flight time and the fuel consumption are both increased by 2.2–2.8 h (17–20%) and 32–48 tons (27–41%), respectively. If the ARS event duration is limited for 3 h, the increase in the fuel consumption is about 7.6–14 tons (6.4–12%). This economic impact may be reduced, if the space weather nowcast and forecast for the ARS and an optimal flight trajectory generation algorithm are used together. Setting more flexible constraints on the flight route and generating optimal flight trajectories with minimal economic impacts by fully utilizing the global EDR distribution is the next step.

In the complex medium system of the sea area, the overlying seawater and the surface soft soil have a significant impact on the seafloor ground motion, which brings great seismic risk to the safety of offshore-engineering structures. In this paper, four sets of typical free-field models are constructed and established, comprising a land model, land model with surface soft soil, sea model and sea model with surface soft soil. The dynamic finite-difference method is used to carry out two-dimensional seismic response analysis of a typical free field based on the input forms of P and SV waves. By comparing the seismic response analysis results of four groups of calculation models, the effects of overlying seawater and soft soil on the peak acceleration and acceleration response spectrum are studied. The results show that when an SV wave is input, the peak acceleration and response spectrum of the surface of soft soil on the surface and the seabed surface can be amplified, while the overlying seawater can significantly reduce the ground motion. When the P wave is used, the effect of overlying seawater and soft soil on the peak acceleration and response spectrum of the surface and seabed can be ignored. The peak acceleration decreases first and then increases from the bottom to the surface, and the difference of peak acceleration calculated by four free-field models is not obvious. The results show that the overlying seawater and the surface soft soil layer have little effect on the peak acceleration of ground motion below the surface.

This study focuses on how Doms of Nusaybin, Mardin identify themselves. The study is based on the notion of identity as a key word. In this context, throughout the study interactions between Doms and Kurds are taken into consideration. In the intersection of these interactions music and rebap instrument take place. Doms of Nusaybin are musicians and they identify themselves as musicians. Also Kurds identify them through music. Rebap which is called locally “kemançe” is Doms’ main instrument. Being musician and kemançe are the basic framework of Dom identification. Kemançe is examined as a material culture element and throughout the study how kemançe plays roles in Dom identification is discussed. Through this framework the major concern to be explored is Dom identification. In addition to this major concern, this study also aims at considering relationship between people and objects. This study is based on the fieldwork conducted between 2011-2015 and 2018-2019. The research data was obtained by using participant observation and in-depth interviews techniques of ethnographic method. Based on the fieldwork as a result of this study it is concluded that kemançe is an agent of Dom identity and Dom identity is open to formulation and reformulation according to situations and contexts.

Due to their power to bring people together, religions have never fallen from the agenda of political life, they have been transformed depending on the power. The study, that asseses Alevi-Kizilbashes with ruling power in Turkey in such a context, will show how it is possible to ignore the religiosity of the Alevi-Kizilbashes. It will be shown that process of pushing the Alevi-Kizilbashes into this non-religious field provided two openings for the nation-state. The study will claim that one of these expansions is the homogenization of the religious area of Turkish society and the other is the construction of a secular cultural space for Turkey. By doing so, it will be shown that Ehl-i Sunnah could be raised to a monopoly position in the religious field, and thanks to these communities pushed into the non-religious folkloric area, Turkish state supports the claim that it has a secular cultural field in history. Within the scope of this study, in the first part, the political choices made by the nationalist elites while building national religion will be highlighted. In final section, it will be focused on how Alevi-Kizilbashes were pushed into the nonreligious field during the institutionalization of the national Turkish state

Um dos objetivos da Geodésia consiste no estudo do geoide e sua determinação é obtida através do conhecimento do campo de gravidade que envolve a distribuição de massas na superfície terrestre. A abordagem clássica para a solução do problema de valor de contorno da Geodésia (PVCG) visando a determinação do geoide assume que os efeitos associados à topografia sejam levados em consideração. A técnica de Modelagem da Topografia Residual (RTM, em inglês Residual Terrain Modelling) tem como objetivo a modelagem o campo de gravidade em função da distribuição de massas associada a topografia onde, nesse tipo de estudo, o conteúdo de alta frequência do espectro relacionado a gravidade é gerado através desse método de redução associado a um modelo digital de elevação (MDE) de alta resolução. Nesse contexto, o objetivo principal desta pesquisa consiste em calcular o valor do potencial gravitacional das massas topográficas oriundas de edificações existentes na cidade de Porto Alegre – RS juntamente com a anomalia de gravidade associada à topografia. Esse estudo foi desenvolvido a partir de uma base vetorial com mais de 200 mil edificações onde o potencial gravitacional foi calculado a partir de um MDE gerado através de dados LiDAR (light detection and ranging). Para auxiliar nos cálculos, foi estimado um modelo de densidades em função das dimensões de cada edificação existentes na base de dados. Assim, foram calculados o valor do potencial gravitacional utilizando os elementos de massa tesseroide, prisma e massa pontual e também o valor da anomalia de gravidade para distâncias de 1 km, 2 km, 5 km, 10 km e 20 km usando a técnica de modelagem RTM. A influência das massas das edificações, neste estudo, representou 10,62% do valor da anomalia de gravidade em comparação com o seu correspondente em relação ao solo.

İlhan Başgöz belongs to the second generation of the Turkish folklore studies. Though the supervisor Pertev Naili Boratav didn’t read the final version and couldn’t attend the jury by reason of his classes were suspended indefinitely, the dissertation, finished in 1949, was the second doctoral thesis completed in Turkey. For the reasons that it was one of the first dissertation and was about a topic not studied previously, it has a significant place in the history of Turkish folklore studies. Nevertheless, the work has not been published. Başgöz composed his dissertation in four parts. Totally, fifty-three texts were studied, twenty-two of which had never been published in any way. He considered the melodious folk tales as an international genre, and thought that Turkish folktales might shed light on some of the issues of world folklore. Thus, as early as his dissertation work, it is understood that his approach was not just to untangle the issues in the field of Turcology. In his study, it was assumed that the basic processes seen in the lives of minstrels were also present in the minstrels that who were not known much about, and then the connections between the lives of old minstrels and biographic folktales were examined using comparison method. In this regard, it is clear that Başgöz noticed the initial data about how the audience and the setting cause changes in story texts. Also, digression was another topic that called his attention during his doctoral studies. In this article, Başgöz’s thesis, preserved in the Library of Ankara University, Faculty of Languages, History and Geography, and the material contained in his thesis were introduced to today’s researchers and then was analyzed with a “hermeneutic” approach in terms of the story texts he used, his approach, his application of ethical rules and their effects. As a result, Başgöz’s thesis preserves its value today in respect of the oral sources he used. However, it doesn’t seem possible today that the applicability of “historical construction” approach, which constitutes the general point of view of his thesis and generalizability of particular examples. İlhan Başgöz, Turkish biographic folktales, minstrel, minstrel literature, story teller

The International Geomagnetic Reference Field (IGRF) is a set of parameters representing the large-scale internal part of Earth’s magnetic field. The 13th generation IGRF requested candidate models for a definitive main field for 2015.0, a provisional main field for 2020.0, and a predictive secular variation covering the period 2020.0–2025.0. The University of Colorado (CU) and the National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI), part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), have produced these three candidate models for consideration in IGRF-13. In this paper, we present the methodology used to derive our candidate models. Our candidates were built primarily from Swarm satellite data, and also relied on geomagnetic indices derived from the ground observatory network. The ground observatories played a crucial role as independent data in validating our candidates. This paper also provides a retrospective assessment of the CU/NCEI candidate model to the previous IGRF (IGRF-12) and discusses the impact of differences between candidate and final IGRF models on global model errors.

Volcanoes are a very common staple in mainstream video games. Particularly within the action–adventure genres, entire missions (e.g. Monster Hunter: Generation Ultimate, 2018) or even full storylines (e.g. Spyro: The Reignited Trilogy, 2018) can require players to traverse an active volcano. With modern advancements in video game capabilities and graphics, many of these volcanic regions contain a lot of detail. Most video games nowadays have gameplay times in excess of 50 h. The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (2017), for example, brags a minimum of 60 h to complete. Therefore, players can spend a substantial amount of time immersed within the detailed graphics and unknowingly learn about volcanic traits while playing. If these details are factually accurate to what is observed in real-world volcanic systems, then video games can prove to be a powerful learning tool. However, inaccurate representations could instil a false understanding in thousands of players worldwide. Therefore, it is important to assess the accuracies of volcanology portrayed in mainstream video games and consider whether they can have an educational impact on the general public playing such games or whether these volcanic details are overlooked by players as they focus solely on the entertainment factor provided. We have therefore reviewed several popular commercial video games that contain volcanic aspects and evaluated how realistic said aspects are when compared to real-world examples. It was found that all the games reviewed had a combination of accurate and inaccurate volcanic features and each would vary from game to game. The visual aesthetics of these features are usually very realistic, including lava, ash fall and lahars. However, the inaccuracies or lack of representation of hazards that come with such features, such as ash-related breathing problems or severe burns from contact with molten lava, could have great negative impacts on a player's understanding of these deadly events. With further investigations assessing the direct impact on the general public, there is an opportunity to correctly assess how to incorporate the use of mainstream video games in educational systems and outreach.

The article's main argument is the volatility of the Amazon frontier, which is considered as a social result of relations in dispute for the conduction of state policies. Therefore, it uses the development of a Brazilian mining policy, to defend its main demands of civil society agencies, seeking their economic and political affirmation. It considers the1930s asalandmarkofthispoliticalarticulation,culminatingwiththecreationoftheMinesand Energy Ministry in 1960. The intellectuals of those agencies present arguments that advocate the primacy of mining activity to the industrialization process, considering mining activities as the main alternative to the Brazilian economic independence. At the sametime,theyproduceinterpretationsaboutAmazonanditsroleasamineralresources frontier.

Ekşi Sözlük is one of the most visited websites in Turkey. Registered users of the website share their knowledge about any topic. In this study, we collect the user entries on the topic of 20 earthquakes in Turkey and the surrounding area. Entries with city and district level information are converted to intensity values. Shake maps of the earthquakes are created by using a ground motion to intensity conversion equation. User entries and created shake maps are compared. It is found that entries correlate with the predicted intensities. It is also found that local soil conditions and building types have an amplifier effect on entries on the website. Several entries on the earthquake topics have magnitude estimations. The difference between predicted and observed intensities also varies with distance. Users are able to predict the magnitudes of the earthquakes with ±0.54 misfit. This study shows that Ekşi Sözlük has the potential to be a reliable source of macroseismic intensity for the earthquakes in Turkey if the felt reports are collected with a predetermined format.

We present geomagnetic main field and secular variation time series, at 300 equal-area distributed locations and at 490 km altitude, derived from magnetic field measurements collected by the three Swarm satellites. These Geomagnetic Virtual Observatory (GVO) series provide a convenient means to globally monitor and analyze long-term variations of the geomagnetic field from low-Earth orbit. The series are obtained by robust fits of local Cartesian potential field models to along-track and East–West sums and differences of Swarm satellite data collected within a radius of 700 km of the GVO locations during either 1-monthly or 4-monthly time windows. We describe two GVO data products: (1) ‘Observed Field’ GVO time series, where all observed sources contribute to the estimated values, without any data selection or correction, and (2) ‘Core Field’ GVO time series, where additional data selection is carried out, then de-noising schemes and epoch-by-epoch spherical harmonic analysis are applied to reduce contamination by magnetospheric and ionospheric signals. Secular variation series are provided as annual differences of the Core Field GVOs. We present examples of the resulting Swarm GVO series, assessing their quality through comparisons with ground observatories and geomagnetic field models. In benchmark comparisons with six high-quality mid-to-low latitude ground observatories we find the secular variation of the Core Field GVO field intensities, calculated using annual differences, agrees to an rms of 1.8 nT/yr and 1.2 nT/yr for the 1-monthly and 4-monthly versions, respectively. Regular sampling in space and time, and the availability of data error estimates, makes the GVO series well suited for users wishing to perform data assimilation studies of core dynamics, or to study long-period magnetospheric and ionospheric signals and their induced counterparts. The Swarm GVO time series will be regularly updated, approximately every four months, allowing ready access to the latest secular variation data from the Swarm satellites.

In this study the narrative/epic/story of Salur Kazan killing the dragon is approached through René Girard’s concept of mimetic desire. The narrative, which started with the capture of Aras and Kars Castles, continues with a hunting adventure. Salur Kazan, who goes on a battle together with his governors, wants to hunt alone after a while. He, alone, cannot find a prey until the darkness falls. He prays to God not to return to his homeland without hunting. His prayer is fulfilled, and a dragon appears before him. The story ends with the fight against the dragon and a celebration. The story shows that the journey and adventure of Salur Kazan, who summons the dragon he will encounter with pray, cannot be considered just as an epic prowess. Through mimetic analysis, it is noted that the mimetic power of the dragon is force, leadership, and the spread of fear. Salur Kazan has the desire to have those represented in the dragon with a mimetic desire, in other words, in the representation of Salur Kazan, it is claimed that the story/storytellers wanted to meet the dragon and kill him as a result of mimetic desire. The desire to be tested which caused Salur Kazan to encounter the dragon and the desire to kill him come into existence with an imitation of the dragon. In fact, the desire is to be (like) the dragon, to attain the dragon and the power, force, and dominance possessed by the dragon. It seems like that the stimulus and/or enemy of this imitation relationship which is based on warfare is the dragon. However, it is claimed that the dragon is the natural stimulus of those who construct and transmit the narrative in Salur Kazan or its representation. Keywords: mimesis, Salur Kazan, mimetic desire, dragon, bellicosity

The changing climate and anthropogenic activities raise the likelihood of damage due to compound flood hazards, triggered by the combined occurrence of extreme precipitation and storm surge during high tides and exacerbated by sea-level rise (SLR). Risk estimates associated with these extreme event scenarios are expected to be significantly higher than estimates derived from a standard evaluation of individual hazards. In this study, we present case studies of compound flood hazards affecting critical infrastructure (CI) in coastal Connecticut (USA). We based the analysis on actual and synthetic (considering future climate conditions for atmospheric forcing, sea-level rise, and forecasted hurricane tracks) hurricane events, represented by heavy precipitation and surge combined with tides and SLR conditions. We used the Hydrologic Engineering Center's River Analysis System (HEC-RAS), a two-dimensional hydrodynamic model, to simulate the combined coastal and riverine flooding of selected CI sites. We forced a distributed hydrological model (CREST-SVAS) with weather analysis data from the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model for the synthetic events and from the National Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) for the actual events, to derive the upstream boundary condition (flood wave) of HEC-RAS. We extracted coastal tide and surge time series for each event from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) to use as the downstream boundary condition of HEC-RAS. The significant outcome of this study represents the evaluation of changes in flood risk for the CI sites for the various compound scenarios (under current and future climate conditions). This approach offers an estimate of the potential impact of compound hazards relative to the 100-year flood maps produced by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), which is vital to developing mitigation strategies. In a broader sense, this study provides a framework for assessing the risk factors of our modern infrastructure located in vulnerable coastal areas throughout the world.

Nevruz, which has an important cultural value in the Turkish world and is registered as a common heritage of 12 countries, including Azerbaijan, in UNESCO’s Representation List of the Intangible Cultural Heritage of Humanity, is one of the festivals celebrated enthusiastically among Azerbaijani Turks, as in the entire Turkish world. This ancient Turkish tradition, which originates from primitive periods and represents the arrival of spring and the awakening of nature, continues to be kept alive by Central Asia and especially Azerbaijan Turks by preserving mythological aspects, despite all kinds of pressures and difficulties. The mythological aspects of Nevruz appear in charshamba ceremonies, which has an important place in Nevruz celebrations. Elements such as fire, water, air and earth, which are found in many cultures and are the main dynamics of renewal and creation myths and also considered sacred in the old Turkish belief system, form the basis of the ceremonial ceremonies. In this study, the mythological origins of the Nevruz charshambas were discussed which had been associated with these four elements.

No Posicionamento por Ponto Preciso (PPP), as coordenadas estimadas na época do levantamento são referenciadas à materialização do sistema de referência global utilizada nas órbitas dos satélites, atualmente IGb14 (época de coleta dos dados). No entanto, sistemas geodésicos regionais são adotados em diferentes países, como no Brasil, que adota o SIRGAS2000 (época 2000,4). Uma forma de lidar com estas diferenças, é a utilização da transformação de Helmert em conjunto com um modelo de velocidades (que também possui um sistema de referência) para a compatibilização tanto do referencial, quanto da época. Este trabalho tem como objetivo avaliar o desempenho dos modelos VEMOS2009 e VEMOS2017 na aplicação do procedimento de redução de coordenadas para o posicionamento GNSS de alta precisão, considerando ou não a compatibilização do referencial das velocidades obtidas. Utilizou-se dados GNSS em formato RINEX de 175 estações da RBMC processados com o serviço online IBGE-PPP. Diante dos resultados encontrados, pôde-se verificar que a compatibilização de referencial das velocidades se mostrou eficaz para o processo de redução das coordenadas obtidas no IBGE-PPP. Das 1513 coordenadas obtidas com cada uma das quatro velocidades, a VEMOS2009-CCR apresentou 62,92% das menores discrepâncias, seguida pela VEMOS2017-CCR com 29,54%, VEMOS2009-SCR com 7,21% e VEMOS2017-SCR com 0,33%. Em relação à diminuição das discrepâncias após a compatibilização de referencial das velocidades, verificou-se que, para o VEMOS2009, 85,86% das coordenadas apresentaram uma menor discrepância após a atualização. Já para o VEMOS2017 essa diminuição ocorreu em 98,61% das coordenadas.

The history of the co-existence of human-grey wolf (Canis lupus) is an example of competition, close interaction during domestication, persecution and extermination. The amazing plasticity and adaptations of the grey wolf ensured the sustainable survival of its populations. Being at the top of the food pyramid, Canis lupus is a consumer of the highest order. It actively regulates the abundance of its main prey, i.e. large ungulates, through their selective predation. These circumstances highlight the interest to study this carnivore species inhabiting the centre of European Russia. Using craniometric methods, we studied 326 wolf skulls obtained in Tver region, Smolensk region, Yaroslavl region, and Vologda region. We revealed a high intraspecific size polymorphism, based on the analysis of the spatial and temporal dynamics of the craniometric characters of the grey wolf collected in the centre of European Russia. These data are originated from an area of 350 × 450 km over a 65-year period. The spatial and temporal dynamics was demonstrated for measurements characterising the length of the skull, the length of the upper and lower jaw, and odontological features characterising the size of the crown of the first premolar and second molar teeth. The sexual variation of the grey wolf skull is characterised by a generally smaller size of female skulls (3.6% in average). A feature related to the functioning of the jaw apparatus, the width of the articular head of the mandible, showed the highest sexual variation (8.1%-difference between males and females). In order of increasing influence, the polymorphism factors are arranged as follows: chronographic, spatial, sex-related, and age-related. Besides the fundamental reasons caused by the sexual selection, the sexual dimorphism in size is determined by exogenous factors associated with a certain degree of segregation in trophic niches of males and females, their different social role, determined by the species life strategy. The geographic variability of the grey wolf skull has a complex and disordered nature. It is primarily caused by social organisation and strong territoriality of the grey wolf, limiting the panmixia, as well as by the stochastic intrapopulation processes due to a generally high elimination of individuals in populations. In the study area, the obtained spatial and temporal grey wolf variability could be caused by the complementary influence of a number of factors. The nature of the variability in the size of the grey wolf skull makes it possible to associate it with the dynamic parameters of the trophic ecology of the studied species, depending on the population-demographic characters of the main prey of the grey wolf, Alces alces and Sus scrofa, in the study area. In addition, it is not excluded that the temporal variability is affected by stochastic factors caused by the intensive grey wolf elimination as a result of sum death, active emigration and immigration of animals caused by anthropogenic load. By contributing to an intrapopulation polymorphism increase, the morphological heterogeneity of the grey wolf population increases the adaptive population ability, which ultimately favours the survival of this carnivore species.

In the East Asian monsoon area, stalagmites generally record lower and higher oxygen isotope (δ18O) levels during warm humid interglacial and cold dry glacial periods, respectively. Here, we report unusually low stalagmite δ18O from the last glacial period (ca. 32.2–22.3 ka) in Fukugaguchi Cave, Niigata Prefecture, Japan, where a major moisture source is the East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM) that carries vapor from the warm surface of the Japan Sea. The δ18O profile of this stalagmite may imply millennial-scale changes, and high δ18O intervals that are related to Dansgaard–Oeschger (D–O) interstadials. More importantly, the stalagmite exhibits low overall δ18O values; the mean δ18O (− 8.87‰) is distinctly lower than the mid-Holocene mean of another stalagmite from the same cave (4.2–8.2 ka, − 7.64‰). An interpretation assuming a more intense EAWM and greater vapor transportation during the last glacial period, compared with the mid-Holocene, contradicts the limited inflow of the Tsushima Warm Current into the Japan Sea because of lowered sea level. Additionally, our model calculation using δ18O data from meteoric water indicated that the amount effect of winter meteoric water was insignificant (1.2‰/1000 mm). Low stalagmite δ18O for the last glacial period in Fukugaguchi Cave most likely resulted from 18O-depleted surface water, which developed in the isolated Japan Sea. The estimated amplitude of the δ18O decrease in surface water was ~ 3‰ at most, consistent with the abnormally low values for foraminifera (by ~ 2.5‰) in sediment during the last glacial period, shown by samples collected from the Japan Sea. This is the first terrestrial evidence of 18O depletion in Japan Sea surface water during the last glacial period.

In the context of folklore discipline, folk medicine is the knowledge related to illness and to recover that has been enhanced throughout the ages and verbally transferred to generations in the area of health. Local and authentic healing methods of folk medicine are coined under the name of traditional medicine (TM) in the eyes of positive sciences. Modern medical scholars preferably use this very nomenclature to address particular folk knowledge formed in healing area that are handed down throughout generations, have been seen helpful and curative with self-experience, and do not directly conflict with both content and basic principles of modern medical scholarship. For this reason, the concept of traditional medicine does not embrace wholly all folk medicine knowledge which is more extensive and contentful. The beneficial and experienced practices in folk medicine have been performed in our country as well as the world by two schools: Healers and physicians. The license to practice in the area of TM has been given to physicians and dentists by the code that issued in 2014 by Republic of Turkey Ministry of Health. After this regulation, a discussion and competition has started in the area of practice between schools. In this study approaches of the practitioners from both parties and the view of their patients related to healing process have been compilated. How the cupping therapy is practiced by self-trained healers and medical scholars as a healing method and how much this very practice coincided with the original form of folk are questioned as well. The question of whether the cupping therapy as originally formed among folk is really beneficial, and folk’s experiential knowledge has been verified by experiments have also been looked closer.

Groundwater is the main source of freshwater and maintains streamflow during drought. Potential future groundwater and baseflow drought hazards depend on the systems' sensitivity to altered recharge conditions. We performed groundwater model experiments using three different generic stress tests to estimate the groundwater and baseflow drought sensitivity to changes in recharge. The stress tests stem from a stakeholder co-design process that specifically followed the idea of altering known drought events from the past, i.e. asking whether altered recharge could have made a particular event worse. Across Germany, groundwater responses to the stress tests are highly heterogeneous, with groundwater heads in the north more sensitive to long-term recharge and in the Central German Uplands to short-term recharge variations. Baseflow droughts are generally more sensitive to intra-annual dynamics, and baseflow responses to the stress tests are smaller compared to the groundwater heads. The groundwater drought recovery time is mainly driven by the hydrogeological conditions, with slow (fast) recovery in the porous (fractured rock) aquifers. In general, a seasonal shift of recharge (i.e. less summer recharge and more winter recharge) will have lesser effects on groundwater and baseflow drought severity. A lengthening of dry spells might cause much stronger responses, especially in regions with slow groundwater response to precipitation. Water management may need to consider the spatially different sensitivities of the groundwater system and the potential for more severe groundwater droughts in the large porous aquifers following prolonged meteorological droughts, particularly in the context of climate change projections indicating stronger seasonality and more severe drought events.

With the increasing frequency and severity of fire, there is an increasing desire to better manage fuels and minimize, as much as possible, the impacts of fire on soils and other natural resources. Piling and/or burning slash is one method of managing fuels and reducing the risk and consequences of wildfire, but the repercussions to the soil, although very localized, can be significant and often irreversible. In an effort to provide a tool to better understand the impact of fire on soils, this study outlines the improvements to and the in situ validation of a nonequilibrium model for simulating the coupled interactions and transport of heat, moisture and water vapor during fires. Improvements to the model eliminate the following two important (but heretofore universally overlooked) inconsistencies: one that describes the relationship between evaporation and condensation in the parameterization of the nonequilibrium vapor source term, and the other that is the incorrect use of the apparent thermal conductivity in the soil heat flow equation. The first of these made a small enhancement in the stability and performance of the model. The second is an important improvement in the physics underpinning the model but had less of an impact on the model's performance and stability than the first. This study also (a) develops a general heating function that describes the energy input to the soil surface by the fire and (b) discusses the complexities and difficulties of formulating the upper boundary condition from a surface energy balance approach. The model validation uses (in situ temperature, soil moisture and heat flux) data obtained in a 2004 experimental slash pile burn. Important temperature-dependent corrections to the instruments used for measuring soil heat flux and moisture are also discussed and assessed. Despite any possible ambiguities in the calibration of the sensors or the simplicity of the parameterization of the surface heating function, the difficulties and complexities of formulating the upper boundary condition and the obvious complexities of the dynamic response of the soil's temperature and heat flux, the model produced at least a very credible, if not surprisingly good, simulation of the observed data. This study then continues with a discussion and sensitivity analysis of some important feedbacks (some of which are well known and others that are more hypothetical) that are not included in the present (or any extant) model, but that undoubtedly are dynamically influencing the physical properties of the soil in situ during the fire and, thereby, modulating the behavior of the soil temperature and moisture. This paper concludes with a list of possible future observational and modeling studies and how they would advance the research and findings discussed here.

This article continues the series of publications devoted to the inventory of the arthropod fauna of Wrangel Island. It summarises previously unpublished data on about 150 specimens of hoverflies in total (Diptera, Syrphidae) collected by various methods (using individual catching, sweeping, yellow pan traps) from 1972 to 2019. Features of the fauna composition and the distribution of hoverflies on Wrangel Island are also discussed. A synopsis of the hoverfly fauna of Wrangel Island consists of 16 species, of which nine have been recorded from this territory for the first time, and one species, Platycheirus pullatus, is new for the Palaearctic region. The subfamily Syrphinae (15 species) includes all the genera which are typical for the tundra zone (Eupeodes, Parasyrphus, Platycheirus, Sphaerophoria, Syrphus), whereas the Eristalinae is represented by a single species, Helophilus groenlandicus. The core of the fauna is formed by arctic hoverfly species. About a third consists of widespread species which are common in the northern part of the tundra zone. The vast majority of the species found on Wrangel Island are known from singletons. The most common species is Parasyrphus groenlandicus. In some years, Parasyrphus tarsatus, Eupeodes curtus, Platycheirus aeratus, and P. setitarsis were locally common. On Wrangel Island, the richest hoverfly fauna (12 species) is located in the central, warmest, part, an enclave of a typical tundra subzone. Most of the species found only here (four out of six) were collected in the XXI century, during a warming climate. Despite the clearly incomplete information, the hoverfly fauna on Wrangel Island (where the biota has a long Pleistocene history) is much richer than on most other Arctic islands.

Continental–global-scale flood hazard models simulate design floods, i.e. theoretical flood events of a given probability. Since they output phenomena unobservable in reality, large-scale models are typically compared to more localised engineering models to evidence their accuracy. However, both types of model may share the same biases and so not validly illustrate their predictive skill. Here, we adapt an existing continental-scale design flood framework of the contiguous US to simulate historical flood events. A total of 35 discrete events are modelled and compared to observations of flood extent, water level, and inundated buildings. Model performance was highly variable, depending on the flood event chosen and validation data used. While all events were accurately replicated in terms of flood extent, some modelled water levels deviated substantially from those measured in the field. Despite this, the model generally replicated the observed flood events in the context of terrain data vertical accuracy, extreme discharge measurement uncertainties, and observational field data errors. This analysis highlights the continually improving fidelity of large-scale flood hazard models, yet also evidences the need for considerable advances in the accuracy of routinely collected field and high-river flow data in order to interrogate flood inundation models more comprehensively.

Drought is a devastating natural hazard that is difficult to define, detect and quantify. The increased availability of both meteorological and remotely sensed data provides an opportunity to develop new methods to identify drought conditions and characterize how drought changes over space and time. In this paper, we applied the surface energy balance model, SEBS (Surface Energy Balance System), for the period 2001–2018, to estimate evapotranspiration and other energy fluxes over the dehesa area of the Iberian Peninsula, with a monthly temporal resolution and 0.05∘ pixel size. A satisfactory agreement was found between the fluxes modeled and the measurements obtained for 3 years by two flux towers located over representative sites (RMSD = 21 W m−2 and R2=0.76, on average, for all energy fluxes and both sites). The estimations of the convective fluxes (LE and H) showed higher deviations, with RMSD = 26 W m−2 on average, than Rn and G, with RMSD = 15 W m−2. At both sites, annual evapotranspiration (ET) was very close to total precipitation, with the exception of a few wet years in which intense precipitation events that produced high runoff were observed. The analysis of the anomalies of the ratio of ET to reference ET (ETo) was used as an indicator of agricultural drought on monthly and annual scales. The hydrological years 2004/2005 and 2011/2012 stood out for their negative values. The first one was the most severe of the series, with the highest impact observed on vegetation coverage and grain production. On a monthly scale, this event was also the longest and most intense, with peak negative values in January–February and April–May 2005, explaining its great impact on cereal production (up to 45 % reduction). During the drier events, the changes in the grasslands' and oak trees' ground cover allowed for a separate analysis of the strategies adopted by the two strata to cope with water stress. These results indicate that the drought events characterized for the period did not cause any permanent damage to the vegetation of dehesa systems. The approach tested has proven useful for providing insight into the characteristics of drought events over this ecosystem and will be helpful to identify areas of interest for future studies at finer resolutions.

Nos últimos anos, o uso de feições lineares tem sido frequentemente investigado no controle de qualidade cartográfica, sendo que diversos métodos foram propostos para avaliação da acurácia posicional. Neste sentido, o presente trabalho teve como objetivo atrelar as tolerâncias definidas no Decreto nº 89.817 e à Especificação Técnica de Controle de Qualidade de Dados Espaciais (ET-CQDG) nos métodos de feições lineares: Pontos finais, Pontos Intermediários, Ponto Gerado e em uma adaptação proposta ao método Fator Fuzziness. Ao final, tais métodos foram comparados com os métodos de feições lineares já aplicados no Brasil que são: Influência do Vértice e Normalização do Buffer Duplo. Para tanto, foi avaliada a acurácia posicional planimétrica de um ortomosaico no município de Viçosa-MG, onde os resultados obtidos mostraram que os métodos do Pontos Finais, Influência de Vértice, Fator Fuzziness e o método de normalização do Buffer Duplo obtiveram classificação planimétrica Classe A para a escala de 1:1.000. Já os métodos Pontos Intermediários e Ponto Gerado apresentaram Classe B na escala 1:1.000.

Em regiões com défict ou restrição de acesso a dados espaciais oficiais, conhecer a qualidade dos dados colaborativos permite minimizar a falta de informação espacial. Admitindo como parâmetro de qualidade dos dados colaborativos a chamada Inteligência Espacial Coletiva, o presente artigo verifica a dependência entre a dinâmica das colaborações na plataforma OpenStreetMap e a aglomeração de pessoas. Para tal assumiu duas vertentes como influenciadoras dessa aglomeração: à derivada das atividades econômicas e a aglomeração derivada do local onde as pessoas resindem. Identificado essa dependência, foi possível estipular variáveis de qualidade para os dados colaborativos quando esses são qualificados em função da Inteligência Espacial Coletiva.

Literary places, which are the significant constituent of literary tourism, also come into prominence as an element of cultural heritage. These places constitute important literary and cultural heritage values of the countries either because they are the place where the author spends part of her/his life or because it contains the author’s personal effects. While literary places, should be managed in line with the function of preserving these cultural heritage values and sustaining them to the future generations, it is also expected to be managed with an understanding that adapts to the changing expectations of the society by keeping up-to-date with the developing contemporary technologies. The aim of this study is to evaluate the practices of literary places in the context of “modern museology”. The population of the research consisted of literary places serving as a museum in Turkey. Seven literary places (NecatiCumalı Memorial and Culture House, Namık Kemal House, Sait Faik Abasıyanık Museum, Orhan Kemal Museum, Aşiyan Museum, Yahya Kemal Museum, Rıfat Ilgaz Culture and Art House) were included in the study. Between 2017 and 2018, data on modern museum practices were gathered through interviews and observations from these literary places. The practices of literary places are evaluated in terms of “presentation and expression techniques”, “education”, “conservation and restoration”, “research, communication and events”, “marketing, promotion and social media”, which are essential elements of modern museology. The data obtained shows that there are efforts made to bring literary places up-to-date, to integrate with society, and to raise awareness about museums, but there are various obstacles in this way

The two seminal studies on westward intensification, carried out by Stommel and Munk over 70 years ago, are revisited to elucidate the role of the domain aspect ratio (i.e., meridional to zonal extents of the basin) in determining the transport of the western boundary current (WBC). We examine the general mathematical properties of the two models by transforming them to differential problems that contain only two parameters – the domain aspect ratio and the non-dimensional damping (viscous) coefficient. Explicit analytical expressions are obtained from solutions of the non-dimensional vorticity equations and verified by long-term numerical simulations of the corresponding time-dependent equations. The analytical expressions as well as the simulations imply that in Stommel's model both the domain aspect ratio and the damping parameter contribute to the non-dimensional transport of the WBC. However, the transport increases as a cubic power of the aspect ratio and decreases linearly with the damping coefficient. On the other hand, in Munk's model the WBC's transport increases linearly with the domain aspect ratio, while the damping coefficient plays a minor role only. This finding is employed to explain the weak WBC in the South Pacific. The decrease in transport of the WBC for small-domain aspect ratio results from the decrease in Sverdrup transport in the basin's interior because the meridional shear of the zonal velocity cannot be neglected as an additional vorticity term.

The three candidate models submitted by the British Geological Survey for the 13th generation International Geomagnetic Reference Field are described. These DGRF and IGRF models are derived from vector and scalar magnetic field data from the European Space Agency Swarm satellites and ground observatories, covering the period 2013.9 to 2019.7. The internal field model has time dependence for degrees 1 to 15, represented by order 6 B-splines with knots at six monthly intervals. We also solve for a degree 1 external field time dependence describing annual and semi-annual signals with additional dependence on a bespoke Vector Magnetic Disturbance index. Satellite data are weighted by spatial density, along-track standard deviations, and a larger-scale noise estimator defined in terms of a measure of Local Area Vector Activity at the geographically closest magnetic observatories to the sampled datum. Forecasting of the magnetic field secular variation for 2020–2025 is by advection of the main field using steady core surface flows with steady acceleration applied. We also investigate the performance of the previous generation of candidate secular variation models, for IGRF-12, analysing the agreement of the candidates between 2015 and 2020 with the retrospective IGRF-13. We find that there is no clear distinction between the performance of mathematically and physically extrapolated forecasts in the period 2015–2020. We confirm that the methodology for the BGS IGRF-12 predictions performed well, despite observed secular accelerations that are highlighted by our analysis, and thus justify the methodology used for our IGRF-13 SV candidate.

Flood risk modelling aims to quantify the probability of flooding and the resulting consequences for exposed elements. The assessment of flood damage is a core task that requires the description of complex flood damage processes including the influences of flooding intensity and vulnerability characteristics. Multi-variable modelling approaches are better suited for this purpose than simple stage–damage functions. However, multi-variable flood vulnerability models require detailed input data and often have problems in predicting damage for regions other than those for which they have been developed. A transfer of vulnerability models usually results in a drop of model predictive performance. Here we investigate the questions as to whether data from the open-data source OpenStreetMap is suitable to model flood vulnerability of residential buildings and whether the underlying standardized data model is helpful for transferring models across regions. We develop a new data set by calculating numerical spatial measures for residential-building footprints and combining these variables with an empirical data set of observed flood damage. From this data set random forest regression models are learned using regional subsets and are tested for predicting flood damage in other regions. This regional split-sample validation approach reveals that the predictive performance of models based on OpenStreetMap building geometry data is comparable to alternative multi-variable models, which use comprehensive and detailed information about preparedness, socio-economic status and other aspects of residential-building vulnerability. The transfer of these models for application in other regions should include a test of model performance using independent local flood data. Including numerical spatial measures based on OpenStreetMap building footprints reduces model prediction errors (MAE – mean absolute error – by 20 % and MSE – mean squared error – by 25 %) and increases the reliability of model predictions by a factor of 1.4 in terms of the hit rate when compared to a model that uses only water depth as a predictor. This applies also when the models are transferred to other regions which have not been used for model learning. Further, our results show that using numerical spatial measures derived from OpenStreetMap building footprints does not resolve all problems of model transfer. Still, we conclude that these variables are useful proxies for flood vulnerability modelling because these data are consistent (i.e. input variables and underlying data model have the same definition, format, units, etc.) and openly accessible and thus make it easier and more cost-effective to transfer vulnerability models to other regions.

The process of representing the distribution of larva free numbers in the district of Kediri which is not visible makes the monitoring process for larva free rates per region less effective and efficient. Therefore, a geographic information system is needed to describe the distribution of larva free numbers in the Kediri Regency area. The design and development of this information system is carried out using two methods, one of which is the data collection method by conducting interviews with one of the staff in the Kediri district Health Office, observing and looking for references related to research.The existence of a Geographical Information System for the Distribution of Larva Free Numbers, helps the Kediri District Health Office in terms of recapitulating data and monitoring the risk of the distribution of larva numbers in the Kediri Regency area. The Geographical Information System for the Distribution of Larva Free Numbers in Kediri Regency was successfully designed and built and can display the distribution of larva free numbers in the form of markers on a map. The Geographical Information System for the Distribution of Larva Free Numbers in Kediri Regency uses PHP, HTML, CSS, JavaScript, MySQL, and the laravel framework.

The wetland of Liao River estuary (LRE) in northeastern China is one of the best-preserved wetlands across the globe. However, it is extremely vulnerable to hydrological changes as well as other disturbances, particularly upstream river discharges and the reclamation from anthropogenic activities. In this study, a 3D hydrodynamic model was used to reproduce the flow patterns of the LRE and to explore the variation in salinity under different scenarios. Furthermore, the impact of river discharge and shoreline changes on the salinity distribution in the LRE was quantitatively analyzed and discussed through several simulation experiments. The model reasonably reconstructed the spatiotemporal variability and distribution of salinity in the Liao River estuary and the wetlands across intertidal areas. Increases in runoff were demonstrated to significantly decrease the mean salinity values of the estuary, with changes in salinity negatively correlated to the longitudinal distance from the estuary mouth. Moreover, the shoreline change caused by the construction of Panjin Port was observed to have an obvious influence on the salinity distribution of the LRE, particularly in the lower reaches of the Pink Beach wetland. Comparisons of the Liao River estuary residual flow fields under different shorelines revealed that the establishment of the port resulted in the diffusion of the runoff from the Daliao River due to the obstruction of the port body, which enhanced the tidal mixing effect and consequently weakened the dilution effect of freshwater entering the Pink Beach wetland. Overall, the current study should be helpful for offering a greater understanding of Suaeda heteroptera vegetation degradation in the LRE, China, and also provides a new perspective in investigating the degradation mechanism in other estuarine wetlands.

According to Colombian historian Lina Del Castillo, the English geographer William Faden used the expertise of Portuguese officials in the Amazon region to build his large mapofSouthAmerica,entitledColombiaPrimaorSouthAmerica,publishedin1807.In this article, we analyze who were these Portuguese officers that helped Faden and, examining the trajectory of these men, we tried to verify how they contributed tothe cartographic construction of the Amazon on ColombiaPrima.

The present analysis proposes to understand the formation of the periphery of Porto Velho, from the meanings produced discursively by the press, and its relationship with the national political reopening in the mid-1980s. For this, the analysis took place on the speeches broadcast in the form of news, opinion columns, editorials and commercial servedinthenewspaperAltoMadeira,themainperiodicalincirculationatthetime.From the perspective of Discourse Analysis, the enunciation mechanisms that were intended, in the press, to reference the events of the urban expansion process of the capital of Rondônia, are constitutive elements of what would be understood as the South Zone of Porto Velho, as well as the meanings fixed byredemocratization.

This study discusses the process of the village of Santo Antônio do Rio Madeira emergence and its changes dynamics, as well as the transformations occurred since the beginning of the construction of Madeira-Mamoré Railway, until the Amazon valley rubber production colapse. Additionally, addressing the competition in Porto Velho, its emptying and disappearance

O presente artigo analisa, a partir da trajetória do negociante e seringalista boliviano Manoel Telesforo Salvatierra, a expansão conflituosa da fronteira extrativista e as relações estabelecidas no mundo do trabalho do rio Madeira na segunda metade do século XIX. Para tanto, utilizamos as ferramentas da microanálise e reconstituímos as redes de relações familiares, econômicas e sociais estabelecidas por Telesforo Salvatierra na Bolívia, no rio Madeira e nas províncias do Amazonas e Pará.

The complementary principle has been widely used to estimate evaporation under different conditions. However, it remains unclear at which timescale the complementary principle performs best. In this study, evaporation estimations were conducted at 88 eddy covariance (EC) monitoring sites at multiple timescales (daily, weekly, monthly, and yearly) by using sigmoid and polynomial generalized complementary functions. The results indicate that the generalized complementary functions exhibit the highest skill in estimating evaporation at the monthly scale. The uncertainty analysis shows that this conclusion is not affected by ecosystem type or energy balance closure method. Through comparisons at multiple timescales, we found that the slight difference between the two generalized complementary functions only exists when the independent variable (x) in the functions approaches 1. The results differ for the two models at daily and weekly scales. However, such differences vanish at monthly and annual timescales, with few high x values occurring. This study demonstrates the applicability of generalized complementary functions across multiple timescales and provides a reference for choosing a suitable time step for evaporation estimations in relevant studies.

Páginas preliminares., América Crítica, V. 2, N. 2 (2018)

Substantial biases exist in satellite precipitation estimates (SPEs) over complex terrain regions, and it has always been a challenge to quantify and correct such biases. The combination of multiple SPEs and rain gauge observations would be beneficial to improve the gridded precipitation estimates. In this study, a two-stage blending (TSB) approach is proposed, which firstly reduces the systematic errors of the original SPEs based on a Bayesian correction model and then merges the bias-corrected SPEs with a Bayesian weighting model. In the first stage, the gauge-based observations are assumed to be a generalized regression function of the SPEs and terrain feature. In the second stage, the relative weights of the bias-corrected SPEs are calculated based on the associated performances with ground references. The proposed TSB method has the ability to extract benefits from the bias-corrected SPEs in terms of higher performance and mitigate negative impacts from the ones with lower quality. In addition, Bayesian analysis is applied in the two phases by specifying the prior distributions on model parameters, which enables the posterior ensembles associated with their predictive uncertainties to be produced. The performance of the proposed TSB method is evaluated with independent validation data in the warm season of 2010–2014 in the northeastern Tibetan Plateau. Results show that the blended SPE is greatly improved compared to the original SPEs, even in heavy rainfall events. This study can be expanded as a data fusion framework in the development of high-quality precipitation products in any region of interest.