Search

Промышленное производство в феврале 2014 г. в годовом выражении увеличилось на 2,1%, в том числе обрабатывающее производство -на 3,4%. Однако производство машин и оборудования упало на 11,4%, строительных материалов – на 2,0% , работ в строительстве на 2,4% в годовом выражении. Резко замедлился спрос на услуги. Индексы оборота розничной торговли и платных услуг населению в январе–феврале 2014 г. к соответствующим показателям предыдущего года составили 103,2% и 101,0%, годом ранее аналогичные показатели были на 0,6 п.п. и 3,3 п.п. выше.

Экономическая динамика в I квартале 2014 г. определялась ростом потребительского спроса и падением инвестиционного. Инвестиции в основной капитал по итогам I квартала 2014 г. снизились на 4,8% относительно аналогичного периода предыдущего года при одновременном сокращении объемов работ в строительстве и производства капитальных товаров. Темпы роста оборота розничной торговли в I квартале 2014 г. составил 103,5%, что на 0,5 п.п. ниже аналогичного показателя 2013 г. Позитивное влияние на экономическую ситуацию в январе–марте текущего года оказало восстановление промышленного роста за счет увеличения выпуска обрабатывающего производства на 2,4% по сравнению с январем–мартом предшествующего года. В государственных учреждениях службы занятости населения на конец марта 2014 г. в качестве безработных было зарегистрировано 941 тыс. чел., что на 13,2% меньше по сравнению с мартом 2013 г..

In the fi rst fi ve months of 2014, the economic situation was determined by slowdown of growth rates of consumer demand and a drop in investments. In January–May 2014, investments in capital assets decreased by 3.8% against the index of the respective period of the previous year. In January–May 2014, the retail trade volume increased by 3.1% against 3.9% a year earlier. A positive contribution to the dynamics of the economic development is made by recovery of output growth in manufacturing. In January–May 2014, manufacturing output index amounted to 103.2% against 98.9% a year before with a high diff erentiation of production rates in diff erent sectors which situation is primarily justified by prevalence of negative trends in production of capital goods.

In January–September 2014, the index of physical volumes of GDP amounted to 100.8% on the respective period of 2013. The positive factors behind positive quarterly dynamics of GDP are, fi rstly, the speed-up of growth rates of manufacturing industries to 3.6% year-on-year in October 2014 against 0.6% a year before, secondly, growth in consumer demand though its rates are much lower than the index of October 2013 and, thirdly, growth in the net export despite a decrease in the foreign trade turnover. In January–October 2014, a 2.5% reduction in investments in capital assets on the respective period of the previous year had a negative eff ect on the domestic market.

In February 2014, industrial production increased by 2.1% on an annualised basis, including a 3.4% increase in manufacturing. However, the production of machines and equipment decreased by 11.4%, construction materials, by 2.0%, and construction works, by 2.4% in annual terms. Demand for services slowed sharply. In January-February 2014 the indices of retail turnover and paid services provided to the public were 103.2% and 101.0% of the corresponding figures for the previous year, whilst, in the year before that, these indicators had been 0.6 and 3.3 percentage points higher.

In January 2014, the macroeconomic situation is under the effect of the same factors which determined the economic dynamics in 2013. In January 2014, a drop of 7.0% and 5.5% in investments in capital assets and the volume of building work, respectively, against January 2013 had a substantial impact on the domes?? c market. Also, slowdown of growth rates of consumer demand on the commodity market (to 102.4% against 104.4% a year earlier) and the market of paid services (to 101.6% against 105.6%) was observed.

Экономическая ситуация в апреле 2014 г. определялась замедлением темпов роста потребительского спроса и спадом инвестиционного. Инвестиции в основной капитал составили в апреле 2014 г. 97,3%, а в январе – апреле – 95,7% от соответствующих показателей предыдущего года. Сокращение темпа прироста оборота розничной торговли в годовом выражении до 2,6% обусловлено резким замедлением реальных доходов населения и реальной заработной платы. После январского падения в феврале – апреле 2014 г. индексы промышленности в годовом выражении демонстрируют рост. Темп прироста промышленного производства в апреле т.г. в годовом выражении составил 2,4%, обрабатывающего производства – 3,9% и добычи полезных ископаемых – 1,7%. Однако, несмотря на некоторое улучшение ситуации, ожидаемый рост промышленности в 2014 г. составит, по оценке Минэкономразвития России, 1,0%, что обусловлено прогнозируемым в текущем году снижением инвестиционной активности на 2,4%.

On the basis of the results of January–September 2013, the index of the physical volume of GDP amounted to 101.3% against the respective period of the previous year. With the existing dynamics of investment and con¬sumer demand, slowdown of growth rates of households’ income and decrease in the financial performance of enterprises and entities, on the basis of the results of 2013 the expected growth rates of GDP will amount to 103–104%. From June 201, growth in the rate of unemployment renewed which factor would make the situation more complicated on the labor market early in 2014.

In the 1st quarter of 2014, economic dynamics was determined by growth in consumer demand and a drop in investment demand. On the basis of the results of the 1st quarter of 2014, investments in capital assets fell by 4.8% on the respective period of the previous year with simultaneous reduction of volumes of jobs in building and production of capital goods. In the 1st quarter of 2014, growth rates of retail trade turnover amounted to 103.5%, which is 0.5 p.p. lower than the respective index of 2013. In January–March 2014, recovery of industrial growth thanks to a 2.4% increase in the output of manufacturing industries as compared to January–March 2013 had a positive effect on the economic situation. As of the end of March 2014, offices of the state employment service registered 941,000 persons as unemployed which is 13.2% lower as compared to March 2013.

In September 2014, the trend of slowdown of economic dynamics by the baseline types of economic activities stopped. Growth in industrial output, manufacturing and mining amounted to 2.8%, 3.6% and 2.4%, respectively, as compared to September 2013. However, the situation is complicated by the continued drop in investment activities. Investments in capital assets decreased by 2.8%, while the volume of jobs in building, by 3.7% as compared to September 2013. In September, year-on-year growth of up to 8% in the inflation rate and a 1% reduction in real wages caused a sudden slowdown of households’ consumer activities and the retail trade volume.

According to the RF Ministry of Economic Development’s preliminary estimates, GDP annual growth in 2013 was 1.3%, while its average per annum growth over the period of 2010–2012 had hovered around of 4.1%. The slowdown of Russia’s economic growth in 2013 was determined by a low domes?? c demand. Investments in fixed assets declined by 0.3%, and the consumer market’s growth rate dropped from 6.3% a year earlier to 3.9% on 2012. The processing industries displayed growth of 0.1% on 2012, while the quarterly rate of production decline in machine-building and metallurgy was on the rise against the backdrop of shrinking investment demand. Dwindling profits, rising production costs, an accelerated growth of wages vs. labor productivity, shrinking demand for labor all contribute to the very unfavorable business situation in 2014.

In H1 2014, the business activities in the Russian economy were characterized by slowdown of growth rates of the external demand on goods of the Russian export and termination of growth in domestic demand. In H1 2014, a 2.8% reduction of investments in capital assets and the minimum growth of 2.7% in the retail trade volume in the past 4.5 years as compared to the respective period of the previous year had a negative eff ect on the domestic market. A positive factor of the current year was a renewal of industrial growth with advanced rates of development of manufacturing.

Economic integration refers to trade unification between different states , and one of its most important aspects is liberalisation of capital movement. In this paper is presented a brief evolution of economic integration cases focusing on one of the most integrated economies - European Union. We concentrate on the participation of foreign investors in different economies and their impact, taking the example of Central and Eastern European Countries and their markets. Also , the level of influence that direct investments in capital markets entails on the Stock Exchange evolution is presented for the case of Romania .

The paper contributes to the empirical analysis of financial uncertainty and investment from a Post Keynesian perspective. The paper uses the volatility of the exchange rate, the volatility of the stock market index, and the real gold price as indicators for financial uncertainty. An increase in the volatility of a variable is a sufficient, but not a necessary condition for an increase in uncertainty regarding this variable. The effects of changes in uncertainty on investment are investigated econometrically for the United States, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Germany and France. Financial uncertainty, we find, has significant negative effects in the US and the Netherlands.

We tackle the issue of the possible instability of the Kaleckian distribution and growth model and the consequences for the endogeneity of the equilibrium rate of capacity utilization and for the paradox of thrift and the paradox of costs. Distinguishing between Keynesian and Harrodian instability, we review various mechanisms that have been proposed to tame Harrodian instability while bringing back the rate of utilization to its normal rate. We find that the mechanisms that have been suggested are far from being convincing. We thus review some approaches arguing that the adjustment towards a predetermined normal rate should not be expected at all, either because the normal rate reacts to the actual rate, or because of other constraints on the behaviour of entrepreneurs. We conclude that Kaleckian models are more flexible than their Harrodian and Marxian critics suppose when attacking the simple textbook version.

The paper is intended to be primarily a factual developments illustrate the main economic indicators in the context of Romania's crisis by creating a digital picture to illustrate the main effects of the country. The idea started more from a personal desire to make a passage highlighted "the crisis, where some of it not felt it directly, seem to be amplified in an unduly by the media”. Secondly, we proposed the application of an econometric model using as a set of macroeconomic indicators compiled data for Romania for the period 2000 to 2008. This will allow certain scenarios and forecasting developments in the context of model assumptions.

We investigate the Hartwick rule for saving of a nation necessary to sustain a constant level of private consumption for a small open economy with an exhaustible stock of natural resources. The amount by which a country saves and invests less than the marginal resource rents equals the expected capital gains on reserves of natural resources plus the expected increase in interest income on net foreign assets plus the expected fall in the cost of resource extraction due to expected improvements in extraction technology. Effectively, depletion is then postponed until better times. This suggests that it is not necessarily sub-optimal for resource-rich countries to have negative genuine saving. However, in countries with different groups with imperfectly defined property rights on natural resources, political distortions induce faster resource depletion than suggested by the Hotelling rule. Fractionalised societies with imperfect property rights build up more foreign assets than their marginal resource rents, but in the long run accumulate less foreign assets than homogenous societies. Hence, such societies end up with lower sustainable consumption and are worse off, especially if seepage is strong, the number of rival groups is large and the country does not enjoy much monopoly power on the resource market. Genuine saving is zero in such societies. However, World Bank genuine saving figures based on market rather than accounting prices will be negative, albeit less so in more fractionalised societies with less secure property rights.

The current paper focuses on the identification of the factors that influenced the evolution of the real sector in Romania between 1990 and 2007, having as a theoretical background the IS-LM model for a small economy, Romania’s case. In this way, we have tested the correlations among: the dynamics of GDP and the capital; GDP evolution, final consumption and public expenses evolution; GDP and foreign direct investments, GDP and the external demand; GDP evolution and the balance of trade. The paper has three sections: a short description of the existing theoretical fundaments; the research methodology based on statistical analysis; and the results of the research with conclusions regarding the trends recorded by macroeconomic indicators and the influence generated over the evolution of the real sector in Romania.

Romania aims at reducing the economic and social gaps to the EU developed Member States. This requires an economic sustainable growth. An increased labor productivity is one of the main factors of competitiveness at national level and of sustainable economic development.

This paper provides a simple model of deleveraging that surfaces the contradictions inherent in neoliberal financialization and explains the pattern of US business cycles over the past thirty years. Deleveraging involves a two step correction. The first step is when a borrowing boom ends. The second step is when agents increase saving and re-pay debt. Borrowing accelerates economic activity as consumers spend. When borrowing stops, the economy slows. Moreover, the economy is further slowed by accumulated debt burdens. With deleveraging, households increase saving and re-pay debt which deepens the economic slowdown. Repayment reduces debt, helping economic activity eventually to recover.

Angus Maddison's contribution to the analysis of long-run developments in the world economy has been monumental. His continuous cumulative work on an ever expanding data-set of national accounts and his in-depth analysis of changes in the main trends in the world’s economic history has given us fundamental tools for a better understanding of past secular trends and future scenarios. His tentative estimates of total and per capita income in remote times must be considered important preliminary building stones in the process of cumulative learning. His main contributions to our knowledge of world economic changes, briefly surveyed in this paper, will be treasured by generations of scholars of comparative growth and development and of economic historians.

In this paper is performed an econometric analysis of the dependence between of consumption, GDP and interest rates of 15 European Union countries over a period of three years. The main purpose of this paper is to show how this can be done using the Eviews program, the steps that we must go through this program and to forecast achievements of the phenomenon studied.

Economic growth and development are notions widely studied in specialized literature, and at the same time with the apparition of disruptive economic phenomena such as an economic or financial crisis, these notions have to be approached in a special way. In this paper we propose to analyze one of the reference aspects with significant contributions to the economic development: the contribution of the industrial workforce to the industry growth. The present analysis is focused to the industrial labour productivity indicator. We chose to make reference to this issue because in the last two years has seen a decrease in the level of production and industrial activity, as a result of measures taken in terms of national character in the context of the financial crisis: layoffs and the decrease of the wage level. The analysis is effectuated on 2007-2010 period of time and refers to the main productive sectors of national industry. On the basis of centralized data processing at the National Institute of Statistics and using the theoretical and methodological information we drew the conclusion that an improperly management of the financial crisis draws an economic crisis, and the phenomenon is done in a closed circle, because the economic crisis impact shows repercussions overall economic sectors of a country

Knowing, examining, ameliorating and developing the rural area, these are all activities of vital importance to a country, by the size of the rural area, expressed through the surface owned, as well as by the population weight occupied in productive activities, of socio-cultural services, of habitat and tourism. In the Report on the European Charter of the rural area, the board of agriculture and rural development of the European Council estimates that the rural area of Europe represents 85% of its total surface and affects, directly or indirectly, more than half of the European population. The rural Rumanian area also includes most of Romania’s surface, having, according to the statistics, a share of 93,7%. The importance of the rural area in Romania can be easily proved through the numerical stability of the rural population during 80 years. Thus, in the 20th century, in Romania, while the total of the country’s population grew by ten million of inhabitants, the rural population maintained, with little fluctuation, around the size of 10 to 12 million inhabitants. With all the rapid urbanization, as a result of the industrialization without precedent in the 21st century, considering the diminution of the occupied population in agriculture, sylviculture and pisciculture (without, however, diminishing also the rural population) and the diminution of the relative share of the agriculture in the internal gross profit, the importance of the rural area must not diminish, but on the contrary, needs to be more and more studied, examined and submitted to a complex development process. The share of the rural population and of the surface occupied by the rural area, as well as the importance of rural life to a country, turn the aspect of the rural development and management into a problem of high proportions and of both national and international importance.

Currently, when surpassing the economic crisis is being prefigured, tourism has an important role in economy. This role must draw the governors’ attention on tourism in order to create a favourable environment for development. The development of tourism in the immediate period following the economic crisis leads to the creation of new jobs, to the reduction of poverty and to the increase of the gross domestic product. Nevertheless the strategies for tourism development adopted at global level must be adapted to each country or region.

Present study reviews certain main pro-active approaches and connections. Searching for root concepts, a number of current views on causes of today’s crisis are selected. They are viewed through the criterion of their effects in practice, in a heterodox approach which is a critique of standard economic routine. Connections are made with the intellectual core of the knowledge society, in the context of the required interdisciplinary character of the scientific act. Requests for the economic analysis result: the economists should judge by a broader horizon. Practical conclusions also ensue, being generally applicable to the crisis management at macroeconomic and microeconomic level.

Foreign direct investment can be regarded as a factor out of the crisis of the Romanian economy. The relationship between the foreign direct investment and the gross domestic product is beneficial for the economy to the extent to which investment is directed towards innovation and new technologies. The virtuous circle diversity - change - technology needs investment to take effect. Microeconomic level investment completes the strategies and the investment decisions at macroeconomic level.

This paper argues that the reason that the DSGE model, which has proved so successful in convincing academic economists of its value, has made relatively few inroads into the undergraduate teaching sphere is that it fails to allow for the development of higher order educational objectives in students. The qualities which make it attractive to academics, such as the purity of its assumptions and its sound microeconomic basis, have little resonance with undergraduate students. Instead, the qualities of the neo-Keynesian model, such as its ability to incorporate 'real-world' institutional features and the ease with which it can be used to develop higher order skills and applications, prove much more attractive.

In the paper there is discussed knowledge of the System of National Accounts (SNA) in the economic policy and some new aspects of the international statistical standard (adopted by the UN Statistical Commission on 23 - 26.02.2010) SNA 2008, which affect the development of economic statistics. The new aspects of SNA 2008 are connected with accounting for capital services, measuring corporate activity, the operations of the central government and the public sectors, changes in the classification of capital and financial assets, non - profit organizations, households, the non - formal sectors of the economics, the connections of monetary statistics with the balance of payments , the matrix - based analyses and the satellite accounts (in tourism, ecology and health). These new aspects are directed not only towards the economic policy, but and towards the teaching of economic statistics in order to improve the general knowledge level and analytical knowledge of Bachelor, Master and Doctoral students.

The global financial crisis which emerged in developed countries has spread to the developing world. Forecasts of growth in developing countries have been downgraded a lot and questions remain as to how profound, for how long these problems will broaden which countries will be affected more than others, and what are the means through which this might work? In these times of global depression, most countries and companies are affected, some more than others. The financial crisis is turning out to be much deeper and broader than expected. This paper underlines what is the outcome of the financial crisis on the global economy and synthesises the main opportunities for companies in these unstable years.

Romania’s entry into the Euro area is subject to fulfillment of the nominal convergence criteria, progress in terms of real convergence being also required. In order to analyze the level of real convergence inside EU, the concepts of σ and β convergence are used. I have taken into consideration the level of GDP/capita (PPS euro) for the member states, during 2000- 2007. I have split the research in two directions: one trying to outline the convergence degree inside the EU, regardless the number of member states, to conclude whether the waves of accession have compromised the convergence, the second one trying to assess the convergence tendency of member states, grouped in UE 15, UE 25 and UE 27 with the purpose of outlining the efficiency of the pre and post accession programs.

A 2008-ban kirobbant pénzügyi válság ráirányította a figyelmet a főáramú makroökonómiára, amely a válság előrejelzésében és magyarázatában igen gyenge teljesítményről tett tanúbizonyságot. Az elmúlt másfél-két évtizedben az újklasszikus és az újkeynesi iskola fokozatosan közeledett egymáshoz, aminek eredményeként létrejött az új neoklasszikus szintézis. A szintézis alapmodelljei, a dinamikus, sztochasztikus, általános egyensúlyi (DSGE) modellek és az újkeynesi monetáris modell a makromodellezés meghatározó szereplőivé váltak. Mára azonban kiderült, hogy ezek a modellek egyre kevésbé alkalmasak rövid távú előrejelzésekre és gazdaságpolitikai elemzésekre. Ezért a makroökonómia válaszút elé került: vagy továbbépíti a DSGE modelleket, vagy pedig új modelleket és ezzel új fejlődési utakat keres. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E20, E32, E44, E52, E60., The financial crisis that broke out in 2008 drew attention to mainstream macroeconom ics, which appeared to have performed very weakly in forecasting and explaining the crisis. The neo-Classical and neo-Keynsian school have been drawing closer in the last 15-20 years, to produce a new neo-Classical synthesis. The basic models of the syn thesis - the dynamic, stochastic, and general equilibrium (DSGE) models - and the neo-Keynsian monetary model had become decisive players in macro modelling. Now it appears that these models are decreasingly capable of eliciting short-term forecasts and economic-policy analyses. This places macroeconomics in a dilemma: should it continue to build on the DSGE models, or should it seek new models and thereby new development paths?

The ongoing financial crisis turns out to be bad not only for worldwide companies’ budgets but also for the environment. It has become unexpectedly inexpensive to pollute. For instance, in E.U., prices for carbon dioxide emissions permits have dropped below 12 euro per ton in 2009 and many companies are selling them to generate cash. At a global scale, there is an urgent need of a coordinated set of actions designed to diminish the negative impact of pollution over the natural environment. Scientists clearly emphasize that natural disasters are about to happen; climatic changes are imminent, as a direct effect of the ozone layer depletion, caused by gases emissions in the atmosphere and by various disasters provoked by humans. The paper is an attempt to make a brief analysis of both the the upside and downside of the economic crisis over the environment.

A versenyzői munkaerőpiac hagyományos kereslet-kínálati modellje az egyensúlyi bérszintet meghaladó minimálbér következményeként az egyensúlyi bérszint mellettinél alacsonyabb foglalkoztatást jósol; minél magasabb a minimálbér, annál alacsonyabbat. Empirikus vizsgálatok szerint ugyanakkor a minimálbér-emelés nem feltétlenül csökkenti a foglalkoztatást - ezt nevezik minimálbér-paradoxonnak -, ami legkézenfekvőbben a munkáltatók munkaerő-piaci monopszonerejével látszik magyarázhatónak. Ezzel szemben az a gondolatkísérlet, amelyről ez a cikk beszámol, általánosabb érvényű, versenyzői munkaerőpiacot feltételező magyarázat kidolgozására irányul. Journal of Economic Literature (JEL) kód: E20, E30, J38., In the conventional textbook demand/supply model of competitive labour markets, the introduction of a minimum wage above market-clearing level must reduce employment. Empirical findings suggest, however, that this may not always be the case, a finding most readily explained by monopsonistic competition in the labour market. The experimental line of thought reported here explores an alternative root, interpreting the minimum-wage paradox" as the outcome of a competitive labour market that displays friction.

This paper revisits the relationship between health and growth in light of modern endogenous growth theory. We propose a unified framework that encompasses the growth effects of both, the accumulation and the level of health. Based on cross-country regressions where we instrument for both variables, we find that a higher initial level and a higher rate of improvement in life expectancy both have a significantly positive impact on per capita GDP growth. JEL classification codes: E20, I10, O40, J11.

It has been frequently observed in the literature that many multivariate statistical methods require the covariance or dispersion matrix @S of an elliptical distribution only up to some scaling constant. If the topic of interest is not the scale but only the shape of the elliptical distribution, it is not meaningful to focus on the asymptotic distribution of an estimator for @S or another matrix @[email protected]@S. In the present work, robust estimators for the shape matrix and the associated scale are investigated. Explicit expressions for their joint asymptotic distributions are derived. It turns out that if the joint asymptotic distribution is normal, the estimators presented are asymptotically independent for one and only one specific choice of the scale function. If it is non-normal (this holds for example if the estimators for the shape matrix and scale are based on the minimum volume ellipsoid estimator) only the scale function presented leads to asymptotically uncorrelated estimators. This is a generalization of a result obtained by Paindaveine [D. Paindaveine, A canonical definition of shape, Statistics and Probability Letters 78 (2008) 2240-2247] in the context of local asymptotic normality theory.

This paper is focused on the macroeconomic aspects of Shackle’s theory of decisions under uncertainty and, more particularly, of his theory of capital and interest. The paper starts by arguing that Shackle’s general approach stems from the identification of, and conflict between, two Paradigms: the Economics of Uncertainty and Expectations (EUE), which was developed in the “years of high theory”, and General Equilibrium Theory (GET). The paper brings out some flaws in Shackle’s view of this conflict and highlights the insights and advances by which Shackle identifies and strengthens the major features of the EUE Paradigm. Amongst these features is the focus on historical time, on expectations and their failures, on money as a store of value, on ex ante and ex post magnitudes, on macroeconomic equilibrium and disequilibrium, on economic fluctuations. The paper argues that, while clarifying or criticizing in his brilliant manner many or some parts of the Keynesian theory of interest or of the Austrian theory of capital, Shackle fails to highlight the difference between the theory of interest as such (the old Austrian theory) and the theory of the money rate of interest (the Keynesian theory) as well as the difference between the theory of capital in the context of logical time (the old Austrian approach) and the theory of capital in the context of historical time (Hayek’s and Shackle’s own approach)

Present study aims to reveal a few of the main perceptions and assumptions concerning economic activity, with implications in the nowadays’ crisis. The most important current anti-crisis views on causes of the crisis are synthesized and critically reviewed. Methodologically, their interpretation is made by the effects in practice, alleging a wide interdisciplinary approach, consistent with the requirements of the European concept of knowledge society. Thus, ideas are brought in the economic analysis in a heterodox approach, trying to go beyond certain standard economic routines and into modelling. The model comes from an approach on the material-immaterial difference and has an answer to the dilemma consumption vs. economizing. There result prerequisites for economic analysis, as well as conclusions in a pro-active approach of the matter, which are generally applicable to the crisis management at macroeconomic level, but with implications at the level of individual economic agent, too.

In the last years the humanity assists to the fundamental changes in economy no matter the level from which is regarded. These changes are so fast and intensive that many times the humanity is confronting also with adaptation difficulties and also with th

The paper starts by reviewing some recent contributions on long waves, arguing that the present technological revolution in ICT is part of the broad phenomenon of a new long wave. It follows that the main focus of economic policy should be to support the diffusion of the new technology and to favour the institutional changes required by such an objective. Four broad guidelines are suggested: i) a Keynesian policy for demand going beyond the straitjacket of the Maastricht criteria and improving the income distribution in favour of employees; i) a policy to re-establish the primacy of productive capital through systematic concerted open market operations to regulate financial liquidity; iii) a reconstruction of the employment relationship that preserves the essential features of the "European social model" and a targeted flexibility of labour, that contrasts with the neoclassical all-out market flexibility; and iv) a regime for intellectual property rights that avoids the drawbacks--both ethical and economic--of current US practices. Paper originally published in the BNL Quarterly Review, vol. 57 n. 231, December 2004, pp. 395-437. JEL Codes: F3, G1, N1, B5, PSL Quarterly Review, vol. 62 nn.248-251 (2009)

This paper assesses the impact of the global economic crisis of 2008 on the Russian economy. It includes a general outline of the dynamics of the basic macroeconomic indicators, and analyses the major factors that resulted in the sharp decline of output in Russia in autumn 2008 and in the first three quarters of 2009. Further, the paper discusses the main characteristics of the Russian Government's anti-crisis policy and its influence on economic development. This paper concludes that the roots of the present crisis lie in the shortcomings of Russia's model of economic growth, which is highly dependent on world commodities prices and external financing of banking and corporate sectors. Thus, the recovery of the economy will strongly depend on the ability of the economic agents, including the state, to establish a new type of growth model that is less vulnerable to external shocks.

The aim of this study is to investigate the validity of McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis that puts forward by McKinnon (1993) and Shaw (1973) for Turkish economy. In the analysis the method of Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares (DOLS) that developed by Stock and Watson (1993) and the cointegration test that developed by Shin (1994) are used for the sample period that covers 1980–2007. In respect of the empirical findings, within the framework of the financial liberalization policies, raising the interest rates have positive effect on savings and loanable funds however have no positive effect on investments. Accordingly, it is understood that the McKinnon’s complementarity hypothesis is not a valid hypothesis for Turkish economy

This paper reviews endogenous growth theories in the light of the modern reality. It seems that economies which are similar in technologies and preferences are expected to converge to the same level of per capita income. The question "How are repetitions of financial crisis best predicted?" is still not answered. It also seems that combining of these models in a singular theory of business coexistence between neo-classical growth models during "Peace time", and unpredicted forces and engines, which move economics during "Crisis time", provide a treatment solution

This paper bolsters Prescott’s (Fed. Reserve Bank Minneap. Q. Rev. 28(1):2–13, 2004) claim that high taxes are responsible for lackluster labor market performance in Continental European countries. We develop a life-cycle model with endogenous skill formation, endogenous labor supply, and endogenous retirement. Labor taxation distorts not only labor supply, but also education and retirement decisions. Actuarially unfair pensions further exacerbate labor tax distortions on retirement. Education subsidies can nevertheless cushion the adverse impact of taxation on skill formation. Feedbacks between education, labor supply, and retirement are important. The model is simulated with realistic behavioral elasticities that are consistent with microeconometric evidence. If, besides labor supply, also learning and retirement are endogenous, the uncompensated (compensated) elasticity of the tax base equals 0.46 (0.85), which is more than twice as large as the standard uncompensated (compensated) labor supply elasticity of 0.18 (0.40). Furthermore, life-cycle interactions between education, working, and retirement are quantitatively important and the interactions raise all behavioral elasticities substantially. For example, the uncompensated labor supply elasticity increases with one-half due to life-cycle interactions (to 0.26). We demonstrate that low European labor supply can be fully explained by taxation without relying on unrealistically high labor supply elasticities. Reducing labor market distortions, cutting benefit levels, lowering tax rates, and making (early) retirement actuarially more fair, therefore, boosts labor supply, delays retirement, and stimulates skill formation. In addition, high education subsidies are needed in large welfare states to offset explicit and implicit tax burdens on human capital investment.

In the United States wealth is highly concentrated and very unequally distributed: the richest 1% hold one third of the total wealth in the economy. Understanding the determinants of wealth inequality is a challenge for many economic models. We summarize some key facts about the wealth distribution and what economic models have been able to explain so far.

A growing body of empirical evidence shows that there exists a long-run positive trade-off between inflation and real macroeconomic activity. Within a New Keynesian framework, we examine how increasing returns generate a positive long-run relation between inflation and output.

This paper aims at empirically estimating the demand effects of changes in functional income distribution for Austria. Based on a Post-Kaleckian macro model, this paper estimates the effects of a change in the wage share on the main demand aggregates. The results for the behavioral functions for consumption, investment, prices, exports and imports are compared with the specifications of the WIFO macro model and the IHS macro model. A reduction in the wage share has a restrictive effect on domestic demand as consumption decreases more strongly than investment increases. Because of the strong effects on net exports the overall effects of a decrease in the wage share are expansionary. However the latter effect operates only as far as the fall in the wage share increases competitiveness. As wage shares were also falling in Austria’s main trading partners, the effect seems to have been neutralized.

An increase in the wage share has contradictory effects on the subaggregates of aggregate demand. Private consumption expenditures ought to increase because wage incomes typically are associated with higher consumption propensities than capital incomes. Investment expenditures ought to be negatively affected because investment will positively depend on profits. Net exports will be negatively affected because an increase in the wage share corresponds to an increase in unit labour costs and thus a loss in competitiveness. Therefore, theoretically, aggregate demand can be either wage-led or profit-led depending on how these effects add up. The results will crucially depend on how open the economy is internationally. The paper estimates a post-Kaleckian macro model incorporating these effects for the Euro area and finds that the Euro area is presently in a wage-led demand regime. Implications for wage policies are discussed. Copyright The Author 2008. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.

This article provides a broad overview of the measurement techniques used in estimating GDP and the national accounts in the United States. In the United States, the GDP and the national accounts estimates are fundamentally based on detailed economic census data and other information that is available only once every five years. The challenge lies in developing a framework and methods that take these economic census data and combine them using a mosaic of monthly, quarterly, and annual economic indicators to produce quarterly and annual GDP estimates. One problem is that the other economic indicators that are used to extrapolate GDP in between the five-year economic census data—such as retail sales, housing starts, and manufacturers shipments of capital goods— are often collected for purposes other than estimating GDP and may embody definitions that differ from those used in the national accounts. Another problem is some data are simply not available for the earlier estimates in the reporting process. For the initial monthly estimates of GDP, data on about 25 percent of GDP—especially in the service sector—are not available, and so these sectors of the economy are estimated based on past trends and whatever related data are available. The initial monthly GDP estimates based on these extrapolations are revised as more complete data become available In producing the national accounts estimates, the Bureau of Economic Analysis attempts to strike a balance between accuracy and timeliness so that the estimates can be used to monitor real overall economic growth and inflation, as well as major sectors of interest.

Estimates of the effect of education on GDP (the social return to education) have been hard to reconcile with micro-evidence on the private return. We present a simple explanation that combines two ideas: imperfect substitution between worker types and endogenous skill-biased technological progress. When types of workers are imperfect substitutes, the supply of human capital is negatively related to its return, and a higher education level compresses wage differentials. We use cross-country panel data on income inequality to estimate the private return and GDP data to estimate the social return. The results show that the private return falls by 1.5 percentage points when the average education level increases by a year, which is consistent with Katz and Murphy's [1992] estimate of the elasticity of substitution between worker types. We find no evidence for dynamics in the private return, and certainly not for a reversal of the negative effect as described in Acemoglu [2002]. The short-run social return equals the private return, but the long-run return is two times higher, providing evidence in favour of endogenous technological progress. The rise in education is the major cause of productivity growth over the sample period 1960-90.