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Copyright of Jerash Journal for Research & Studies is the property of Jerash University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Human resources are considered one of the most important aspects of organizations as it has a significant impact on performance and success. With the rapid growth of technologies and societal change, human resources have also been influenced and has undergone rapid transformation. In this regard, this study aimed to explore and analyses the entrepreneurial opportunities arising from the technological trends in the human resource ecosystem in Iran in the next 2 to 5 years. This exploratory mixed methods study was conducted using a quantitative-qualitative approach. First, 17 technological trends were identified in a literature search from over 40 sources. Then, a survey sought the opinions of 57 experts to priorities the trends. Then, semi-structured interviews with 21 technology and HR experts were conducted using MAXQDA software to extract 243 open codes for opportunities, which after synthesis led to 38 identified technology-based entrepreneurial opportunities, including developments such as interactive VR safety training platforms, AIsupported CV analyses and AI-based compensation systems. The identified opportunities are categorized into six key areas: talent acquisition, rewards, compensation and work experience, employee relations and risk management, HR information management, HR administration and shared services, talent management and development. The findings can assist entrepreneurs, employers, and HR professionals in recognizing and leveraging technology-driven opportunities in human resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article defines the term valorization of biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) measures, as distinguished from their valuation, and underpins it with an assessment of private valorization examples along the agri-food value chain. Valorization incentivizes measures for promoting BES, while valuation refers to its quantification. Valuation can be a step of valorization but is not indispensable. In scientific literature, the terms valorization and valuation are often used interchangeably. In addition, there is a lack of research on private options versus conventional, public policy options. Therefore, we searched for private valorization options primarily in public sources (gray literature and websites). This led to the identification of four clusters (markets for voluntary services, labeling, and certification, environmental management/CSR, and tradable permits and quotas). Based on these clusters the options were assessed from a legal and systems dynamics perspective. In addition, the viability of selected valorization options in different future scenarios was examined. The analysis revealed a wide range of private valorization options, which in contrast to public policy options that focus almost entirely on the production stage, are spread across the agri-food value chain. Their suitability differs under different future scenarios, legal and systems conditions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, shared services centers (SSCs) have been central to organizational transformation strategies of many large firms and governments to reduce costs, improve service quality, and innovate services. SSCs are undergoing significant transformations due to the advancement of technologies. To better understand the technologies' impact on SSCs in 2030, a Delphi panel with over 30 experts, executives, and researchers was conducted in the first half of 2020. Panelists pointed out six recent technologies potentially impacting SSCs by 2030: AI/ML, internet/package-based automation, BPMS/RPA, business analytics, blockchain, and cloud computing. The experts expect that these technologies will cause a transformation in the SSC business model and disruptive changes in SSC employees' and managers' profiles. Managers cannot merely continue their regular efforts and should refocus from automating repetitive functions towards intensifying the use of technology in value-adding services. The outcomes should help public and private sector managers to be ahead of change and prepare their organizations for the future of SSCs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study explores the major factors affecting the creative tourism market in Iran and their potential to drive national and regional development in the long run. The study employs the MicMac and Scenario Wizard software to identify the variables and their relationships and influence on each other. The study finds that communication infrastructure is a general factor that affects all guest communities, while others are specific to capital attraction from Middle Eastern countries. These include improving political relations with these countries and digital advertising and marketing of Iran's development. This study aimed to investigate the effectiveness of a new teaching methodology on student performance in mathematics. The methodology involved a combination of interactive lectures, group discussions, and hands-on activities. A quasi-experimental design was used, with one group of students receiving the new methodology and a control group receiving traditional teaching methods. The study was conducted over the course of one semester with pre- and post-tests administered to both groups. The results showed a significant improvement in the performance of the experimental group compared to the control group. The experimental group had a mean post-test score of 87.5, compared to the control group's mean score of 76.2. The influence graph shows the relationships between the variables and how they influence one another, and the spatial structure of the direct driving forces of creative tourism development in Iran is indicated at a rate of 25%. This research offers insights and recommendations for policymakers, tourism practitioners, and scholars interested in the development of creative tourism in Iran. These findings suggest that the new teaching methodology can be an effective way to improve student performance in mathematics. Further research could explore the impact of this methodology on other subjects and in different settings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article considers how the categories of time and, especially, the future can be employed in anthropological reflection; both as study object and direction and as a horizon for current affects, emotions, experiences, and social moods, which are happening “here and now” and are associated with people’s functioning in landscapes of energy resources extraction. The mining industry development transforms local countryside, changing the realities of living on coal reserves. To properly recognize such changes, we must activate spatial and temporal perspectives, while any explanation attempts encourage us to shift scales and values. Faced with an unknown future of transitions, local communities create narratives about the past and the maturing present by developing specific affective social poetics. Thus, energy transition studies provide an ethnographic contribution to the developing anthropology of the future, thus co-creating an imagination of the post-coal future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

IRI2038 aimed to give IRI and its members a wider view of potential futures so that they could recognize change in the R&D environment and manage research proactively. A decade ago the Industrial Research Institute (IRI) recognized that the emerging future reality across the next 25 years would challenge members' mental models. Six Key Implications for All Futures While each scenario presented a different view of the future, the research team identified six key implications likely to occur across all futures: Artificial intelligence (AI) would transform project and portfolio management. Keywords: Foresight; Future; Innovation EN Foresight Future Innovation 22 26 5 11/07/23 20231101 NES 231101 Foresight exercises serve an important purpose in expanding mental models of the future to recognize change and act in uncertainty. [Extracted from the article]

Over the last few years, increased research has been carried out on climate change. Part of this research has been based on foresight methodologies to gain time in the fight against climate change and identify planning and development policies that may be effective in the future. However, more research is needed, and it is essential to continue working to determine the appropriate strategies to chart the right path in the fight against climate change. Particularly scarce attention has been given to Latin American countries and, more specifically, to collaboration between countries in identifying priority research lines in this area. In this context, this study is innovative in presenting an articulated and cooperative work between Bolivia and Paraguay in identifying strategic lines of investigation linked to the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) that might have a more significant impact on climate change management. The application of the Delphi technique within a group of experts allowed the consolidation of different perspectives and knowledge on climate change and allowed us to identify, within the SDGs, the priority lines that should be addressed to manage climate change impacts. The results identify specific priority research lines for Bolivia and Paraguay related to the genetic diversity of food crops (SDG 2), new or reemerging human viruses (SDG 3), sustainable freshwater extraction and supply (SDG 6), cleaner fossil fuel technology (SDG 7), sustainable transport (SDG 9), local impact of climate-related hazards and disasters (SDG 13), and terrestrial biodiversity (SDG 15). These research lines should not be seen as exclusive but as the priority research lines that might have the most significant impact and should be addressed in the short term. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Never fully lined up, the temporalities of nature, sciences and societies are today in a state of profound discrepancy that sets them at the very center of the crisis of the Earth system, which is also a 'crisis of the future'. Neglected during the historical period of the 'great acceleration' of the second half of the 20th century, the relevance of taking into account those intertwined temporalities surges today as an emergency, if not a sheer panic. Thus, we are compelled to develop an effort unheard of for the design of an understanding of time likely to be actuated at all relevant levels, in both an interdisciplinary and a transdisciplinary way, in order to embed the Earth system in a transition process aimed at the setting of a viable and livable system. Rooted in the critical thinking and the scientific proposals of the epistemic community of the journal Natures Sciences Sociétés, founded in 1993, this paper aims at proposing a clinical analysis of 'presentism' as a paradigm, before exploring the possible new ways of mobilizing history on the one side, foresight studies on the other, in order to build an involved and responsible conception of temporalities in the context of the strengthening fluctuations of the Anthropocene. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Previous research has suggested that infants are able to distinguish between possible and impossible events and make basic probabilistic inferences. However, much of this research has focused on children's intuitions about past events for which the outcome is already determined but unknown. Here, we investigated children's ability to use probabilistic information to guide their choices and actively shape future events. In two experiments, we examined whether children could successfully direct a marble through a series of tubes, selecting between routes where success was possible, impossible, or guaranteed (i.e., 50% vs. 0%, or 50% vs. 100%; Experiment 1), and routes where success was mutually possible but probabilistically distinct (e.g., 33% vs. 50%; Experiment 2). In total, we tested 136 two- to five-year-old children (76 males), recruited predominantly through a museum in Brisbane, Australia. In Experiment 1, we found that while younger children typically did not perform above chance, the vast majority of 4- and 5-year-olds consistently distinguished between possible and impossible or guaranteed outcomes. In Experiment 2, children of all ages had greater difficulty with distinguishing between two possible outcomes with different likelihoods than between possible and impossible/guaranteed outcomes, although some individual 4- and 5-year-olds demonstrated competence when making both distinctions. Public Significance Statement: This study examined the development of children's ability to reason about the possibility and probability of future outcomes. Two- to 5-year-old children were given the opportunity to choose between two actions that would be more or less likely to lead to a reward. In contrast to previous studies, the results showed that many children struggled to select the better action well into the preschool years, which may have implications for how to best introduce probability concepts in the classroom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Estudios sobre el Mensaje Periodistico is the property of Universidad Complutense de Madrid and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Now that European defence budgets are (finally) on the rise, Europe's military circles are faced with one issue that has not been addressed at EU level: how do they want to fight? The US-led NATO alliance rightfully coordinates all doctrinal work in Europe at the moment, but the time to discuss how soldiers and weapons function in larger operations is coming, considering the US's gradual withdrawal amid increasing turmoil in the neighbourhood. Having these field concepts in place would demonstrate the determination and cohesiveness of the Europe of today while shaping the military procurement of tomorrow. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Objective: The trend of developments in the health system and medical education and other related sciences, including environmental health, is a global challenge. In this research educational content of environmental health and its revision were studied from the point of view of students and graduates. Materials and Methods: The present study was a cross-sectional descriptive study. In this research, through two checklists, the opinions of environmental health students and graduates regarding the necessity of revising the educational content of the field according to the requirements of the time and considering the future situation were investigated with the participation of 441 people. Data analysis was performed using SPSS-22 software. Results: According to the results, 73.7 percent of participants believed that the educational content of environmental health in Iran has fundamental differences from developed countries. 81.7 percent believed that the educational content provided to environmental health students is not proportional to their duties. Meantime, 91.4 percent of the graduates of environmental health believe that the expected capabilities included in the educational curricula of different degrees of environmental health should be revised. 88.4 percent believed that it is necessary to revise the educational content of this field considering the "change in executive and practical functions of environmental health during the past years". Conclusion: The overwhelming majority of graduates of the field emphasized the need to revise the educational content of the environmental health field, taking into account the requirements of the time. It is necessary to redefine the field of environmental health in the country according to the changing situation and the emergence of new indicators.

Abstract Climate change effects are already being felt around the globe, and governance systems need to adapt to this new reality to foster greater resilience in social–ecological systems (SES). Anticipatory governance is a concept proposed for such a purpose. However, its definition remains rather vague in the literature, as is its practical use for decision makers. In this paper, we contribute to filling these two shortcomings. First, we conducted a systematic literature review of the concept and derived the following main criteria: foresight, networked engagement, integration and feedback. Second, we use the identified criteria to analyse two social–ecological systems around lakes in Lower Saxony, Germany and in Quebec, Canada. In both cases, data were generated using a participatory approach (interviews and workshops) with local stakeholders. We examined these data, identifying opportunities and barriers to anticipatory governance. Our findings support, with empirical data for the first time, the claim in the literature that ensemble‐ization—the fact that all anticipatory governance criteria must be put forward jointly and not in isolation—is a facilitator for the emergence of anticipation. Furthermore, by highlighting opportunities and barriers to anticipatory governance within two temperate lake SES cases, we illustrate how to understand a given system's limitations with respect to anticipatory governance, as well as how to engage with the concept through concrete, already existing opportunities. The proposed course of actions could help design more anticipatory governance systems to support decision‐making processes that could enhance SES resilience. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

Background and Aim: Global trends and national policies have made internationalization and paying attention to the international markets of higher education inevitable on the one hand and becoming a legal requirement of Iranian medical sciences universities on the other hand. Therefore, the main goal of this article was to show, by examining the experience of international marketing of higher education in Tehran University of Medical Sciences, what are the futures of international marketing of higher education in medical sciences? Materials and methods: in this documented data and the views, knowledge and lived experiences of the beneficiaries of the University of Medical Sciences were the basis of the study, and in the following, the methods of documentary studies, trend analysis, brainstorming, expert panel, theme analysis and scenario planning were used. Results: The most important achievement of this article is that among the challenges facing the international marketing of higher education in the University of Medical Sciences, two driving forces have the highest importance and uncertainty in shaping the future of this issue, including: sustainable security and cultural development. Conclusion: The normalization of political and economic relations with the world along with appropriate cultural development inside and outside the university and acceptance of cultural, racial, religious, intellectual, ethnic and gender differences strengthens the marketing process of higher education. In such a situation, the risk of investing in providing international higher education will be reduced. Therefore, the most expensive and the most important uncertainty facing the country's universities in international marketing is the attitude and approach of science and technology governance to the relations and structure governing the international system.

Background: Advanced materials are most likely to bring future economic, environmental and social benefits. At the same time, they may pose challenges regarding their safety and sustainability along the entire lifecycle. This needs to be timely addressed by the stakeholders (industry, research, policy, funding and regulatory bodies). As part of a larger foresight project, this study aimed to identify areas of scientific research and technological development related to advanced materials, in particular advanced nanomaterials and the sub-group of smart nanomaterials. The study identified and collected data to build relevant research and innovation indicators and analyse trends, impact and other implications. Methods: This study consisted of an iterative process including a documentation phase followed by the identification, description and development of a set of core research and innovation indicators regarding scientific publications, EU projects and patents. The data was extracted mainly from SCOPUS, CORDIS and PATSTAT databases using a predefined search string that included representative keywords. The trends, distributions and other aspects reflected in the final version of the indicators were analysed, e.g. the number of items in a period of time, geographical distribution, organisations involved, categories of journals, funding programmes, costs and technology areas. Results: Generally, for smart nanomaterials the data used represent around 3.5% of the advanced nanomaterials data, while for each field analysed, they represent 4.4% for publications, 13% for projects and 1.1% for patents. The study shows current trends for advanced nanomaterials at a top-level information that can be further extended with sub-indicators. Generally, the results indicated a significant growth in research into advanced nanomaterials, including smart nanomaterials, in the last decade, leading to an increased availability of information. Conclusion: These indicators identify trends regarding scientific and technological achievements and represent an important element when examining possible impacts on society and policy implications associated to these areas.

Our futures are always dying and there are futures always being born. There is a liminal space in which we stand and experience both those deaths and births which send ripples through our multiplex systems. Drawing upon fields and tools such as thanatology, neuroscience, and trauma-informed care may allow us frameworks with which to manage not just how we think about the future but also how we feel about the future. There is a hallowed ground where the births and deaths of our futures exist and it takes both courage and creativity to stand there. As futurists, our job is often to sit bedside with others as they nurse and hospice their futures - both imagined and unimagined. Recognizing the skill needed to serve as container for individuals, systems, and the world requires something new from the field of Foresight and its practitioners. With the shocking, global loss from the Covid-19 pandemic, related individual micro-loss, the continuing climate decline partnered with increasing disruption, the world stands on the precipice of new understanding around grief and hope. Thoughtful consideration here allows us to better anticipate futures death and the transitional grief that often accompanies change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Advanced materials are most likely to bring future economic, environmental and social benefits. At the same time, they may pose challenges regarding their safety and sustainability along the entire lifecycle. This needs to be timely addressed by the stakeholders (industry, research, policy, funding and regulatory bodies). As part of a larger foresight project, this study aimed to identify areas of scientific research and technological development related to advanced materials, in particular advanced nanomaterials and the sub-group of smart nanomaterials. The study identified and collected data to build relevant research and innovation indicators and analyse trends, impact and other implications. Methods: This study consisted of an iterative process including a documentation phase followed by the identification, description and development of a set of core research and innovation indicators regarding scientific publications, EU projects and patents. The data was extracted mainly from SCOPUS, CORDIS and PATSTAT databases using a predefined search string that included representative keywords. The trends, distributions and other aspects reflected in the final version of the indicators were analysed, e.g. the number of items in a period of time, geographical distribution, organisations involved, categories of journals, funding programmes, costs and technology areas. Results: Generally, for smart nanomaterials the data used represent around 3.5% of the advanced nanomaterials data, while for each field analysed, they represent 4.4% for publications, 13% for projects and 1.1% for patents. The study shows current trends for advanced nanomaterials at a top-level information that can be further extended with sub-indicators. Generally, the results indicated a significant growth in research into advanced nanomaterials, including smart nanomaterials, in the last decade, leading to an increased availability of information. Conclusion: These indicators identify trends regarding scientific and technological achievements and represent an important element when examining possible impacts on society and policy implications associated to these areas.

To cope with interannual climate variability, many farmers in tropical and sub-tropical regions choose crop varieties that fit seasonal climate conditions. Therefore, seed demand for different varieties, such as early- or late-maturing cultivars, varies between years. Resulting mismatches between relatively constant supply and variable demand create losses for both seed suppliers and farmers. Because demand for seed of different varieties is influenced by seasonal climate, however, probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts could help seed suppliers better anticipate upcoming seed demand. To explore this idea, we engaged decision-makers from seed supply organizations in Zimbabwe and Ethiopia. Through a participatory design process, we identified opportunities and challenges for using seasonal rainfall forecasts to inform seed supply decisions. In a case study of maize seed sales in Zimbabwe, we tested our assumptions and iteratively devised a systematic procedure for forecast-based planning in seed supply, relying on free online data sources and expert deliberations. We found that currently accessible rainfall forecasts could indeed be useful for prioritizing likely high-demand varieties during the stages of seed treatment, packaging, and logistics. In practice, though, more flexible and adaptive management of seed supply pipelines might be required to make use of seed demand forecasts. In the future, targeting farmers with climate forecasts along with recommended variety portfolios may strengthen the association between seasonal climate and farmers’ variety demand, increasing the accuracy of demand anticipation. This study highlights opportunities for increased case-specific collaboration between climate scientists and the seed sector to make seasonal forecast information operational.

The South China Sea dispute is among the most volatile flashpoints in contemporary international relations. This study examines this dispute using the general morphological analysis (GMA) methodology employing eight factors of analysis. These produced 65,536 distinct outcomes in a cross-consistency matrix (CCM) which exist on a spectrum of plausibility. Three scenarios were chosen for foresight analysis which project contemporary trends into the near-to-mid-term future. After the analysis of hundreds of different combinations from the CCM which remained after auditing for analytical noise and plausibility this research found that much of the foresight produced scenarios which were similar to a ‘dispute stagnation’ scenario. This highlights the present realities of the dispute wherein all parties have entrenched into their political and physical positions with little alternative outside of direct confrontation, an outcome which though possible, is unappealing to claimants due to the secondary effects which it would bring.

Future-orientated thinking needs to be strengthened in planning and policy making to respond to the challenges posed by ‘presentism’. Despite the inherent uncertainty of the future, effective planning and policy making require the ability to envision potential future developments and implications of today´s decisions. The ’tragedy of the time horizon’ emphasises the detrimental effects of short-term thinking on various domains, including the environment, economic stability, and social equity. It encompasses the multifaceted challenges posed by short-term thinking and the neglect of long-term consequences. To combat this, we must boost our future literacy, i.e. the capacity to imagine, read, and use the future, both at the individual and societal levels. Future literacy is vital for navigating uncertainty, making strategic decisions, embracing innovation, enhancing social resilience, and promoting sustainable development. This requires a collective effort to improve future literacy skills, foster imagination and creativity, and overcome the challenges of ‘the tyranny of now’. Envisioning positive futures is crucial for inspiring hope, collaboration, and informed decision-making, particularly in a rapidly changing world.

Foresight is a strategic tool, which a state may implement to set priorities in politics and investments, show potential gaps in knowledge and information, and importantly better understand uncertainties. Therefore, foresight is a suitable method to increase a state’s resilience in various fields. The present study aims at answering the following question: What are the decisive factors for the use of foresight in enhancing state resilience, and what are the effective strategies for its practical implementation? The question is answered by taking a multi-method approach, combining a multi-step literature review with an illustrative case analysis of the implementation of foresight for resilience. The results are twofold: Firstly, by creating a structured framework based on research, the present paper develops a better understanding of projects aiming to achieve increased resilience through the application of foresight. Secondly, the case study on the United Kingdom’s Resilience Framework demonstrates the practical applicability of the framework and shows how the UK approaches resilience by applying foresight. The paper thereby highlights the potential of well-structured foresight projects as a central tool for states to help create an understanding of and make crucial decisions on resilience despite uncertainty. Abstrakt Foresight ist ein strategisches Instrument, das ein Staat einsetzen kann, um Prioritäten in Politik und Investitionen zu setzen, potenzielle Wissens- und Informationslücken aufzuzeigen und vor allem Unsicherheiten besser zu verstehen. Daher ist Foresight eine geeignete Methode, um die Resilienz eines Staates in verschiedenen Bereichen zu erhöhen. Die vorliegende Studie zielt darauf ab, folgende Frage zu beantworten: Was sind die entscheidenden Faktoren für den Einsatz von Foresight zur Stärkung staatlicher Resilienz und was sind die wirksamen Strategien für deren praktische Umsetzung? Die Frage wird durch einen multimethodischen Ansatz beantwortet, der eine mehrstufige Literaturrecherche mit einer anschaulichen Fallanalyse der Implementierung von Foresight für Resilienz kombiniert. Die Ergebnisse sind zweierlei: Erstens wird durch die Schaffung eines strukturierten Rahmens, der auf Forschung basiert, ein besseres Verständnis für Projekte entwickelt, die darauf abzielen, durch die Anwendung von Foresight mehr Resilienz zu erreichen. Zweitens demonstriert die Fallstudie zum „United Kingdom Resilience Framework“ die praktische Anwendbarkeit des Rahmens und zeigt, wie das Vereinigte Königreich Resilienz durch Vorausschau angeht. Die Studie zeigt damit das Potenzial von gut strukturierten Foresight-Projekten als zentrales Instrument für Staaten auf, um trotz Unsicherheit ein Verständnis für Resilienz zu schaffen und wichtige Entscheidungen zu treffen. Abstraite Foresight est un outil stratégique, qu’un État peut mettre en œuvre pour fixer des priorités en matière de politique et d’investissements, montrer les lacunes potentielles dans les connaissances et l’information, et surtout mieux comprendre les incertitudes. Par conséquent, la prospective est une méthode appropriée pour accroître la résilience d’un État dans divers domaines. La présente étude vise à répondre à la question suivante : quels sont les facteurs décisifs pour l’utilisation de Foresight dans le renforcement de la résilience de l’État, et quelles sont les stratégies efficaces pour sa mise en œuvre pratique ? On répond à la question en adoptant une approche multiméthodes, combinant une revue de la littérature en plusieurs étapes avec une analyse de cas illustrative de la mise en œuvre de la prospective pour la résilience. Les résultats sont doubles : premièrement, en créant un cadre structuré basé sur la recherche, le présent document développe une meilleure compréhension des projets visant à accroître la résilience par l’application de Foresight. Deuxièmement, l’étude de cas sur « United Kingdom Resilience Framework » démontre l’applicabilité pratique du cadre et montre comment le Royaume-Uni aborde la résilience en appliquant Foresight. L’étude souligne ainsi le potentiel de projets de prospective bien structurés en tant qu’outil central permettant aux États de comprendre et de prendre des décisions cruciales en matière de résilience malgré l’incertitude. Schlagworte: Foresight; Resilienz; Public Foresight; Strategisches Foresight; Zukünfte des Staats; Public Management Mots-Clés: Foresight; Résilience; Foresight public; Foresight stratégique; Futures de l’État; Public Management

Most social work research explores ways to prevent or ameliorate social problems to relieve human suffering. Less common in social work is research which considers the future as a preparative tool to address challenges faced today. This qualitative methods paper describes the uses of a foresight lens and futures-focused framework to analyze empirical research. The paper first provides insight into speculative turns toward futures practice within academic and non-academic traditions in the United States. It describes the ways foresight has emerged within social work research and beyond. Next, the paper contextualizes the case study of mutual aid as a community strategy and research focus within a U.S. context. Then, the paper provides the steps the research team took to use Dator’s (2009) four futures framework, which analyzed interviews of mutual aid participants and organizers (N=25) during the early months of the COVID-19 pandemic. The research team provides insights and best practices for using the foresight lens as an analytical tool, including reflexivity, flexibility, and an emphasis on centering participant voices. The paper ends with limitations and implications for the use of foresight practice and future-focus tools in the field of social work as a means to help prepare researchers, practitioners, and educators for the complex crises yet to come.

Purpose: The present study aims to show the similarities and differences of the 18 sub-fields related to each of the six concepts of futures studies, foresight, futurology, future thinking, futurism and future mining by studying and comparing the topics investigated in the scientific productions of futures studies (in its general sense). Method: The method of collecting information and the method of analysis are scientific and specialized library research. Data analysis was done using Excel software. The research is descriptive-exploratory in terms of practical purpose and in terms of nature and method, was carried out using scientometric techniques and qualitative approach in order to collect data to conceptualize and provide prescriptive analysis. The basis of analyzes is scientific research and scientific promotion articles indexed in the database of Iranian scientific publications (Magiran). Findings: The results show that the highest frequency of articles in the field of futures studies is urban and regional 205 articles, religious and religious 128 articles, and defense and military 102 articles. In addition, the highest rate of growth of articles in the studied fields is in 2022. Conclusion: The results of this research are in line with the comparison of the frequency of scientific articles published in the six studied concepts related to the future in the fifteen -year period of 2008 to 2022, and the results of the analysis show that the highest frequency of articles is related to the concept of futures studies with 822 and foresight with 279 respectively. The research title is dedicated. In addition, the highest growth of articles in these fifteen years is for the concept of futures studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Factors such as improving living conditions, increasing life expectancy and lifespan in the elderly have led to an increase in the elderly in various societies, including Iran and old age has more leisure than youth due to age conditions and reduced work activity ratio, Therefore, the aim of this study was to foresight the leisure time of the elderly based on the physical activity approach. Method: Using the model of causal layered analysis, in four levels of litany analysis, social causes, discourse and worldview and myth, this research investigates the approach of the layered causal method to the problem. Therefore, by studying the sources in the research literature, interviewing sports and futures research experts and using causal layered analysis, describes the problem at four levels. Findings: Causal layered analysis of the elderly's leisure was defined by the physical activity and exercise approach with 27 indicators and showed that the existence of problems at the four levels is necessary in order to take a more comprehensive look at the nature of problems and issues and to create intellectual order in a structured confrontation with problems. Conclusion: The results showed that in order to plan and accurate policies to meet the needs of the elderly especially in the field of sports and physical activities in the form of leisure, attention to the layer of discourse and myths and metaphors causes the set of constructive actions in these layers to solve some issues at higher levels leading to a bedrock for active Elderly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regional planning is a collaborative effort for policymaking, organizing, exploitation and optimal use of regional resources and potentials, in accordance with needs and priorities, to raise the living standards of regional people with the help of regional institutions and structures. This study aimed to identify driving factors in regional development of Ardabil province. The study was done in three stages. The first stage was obtaining information from high-level documents and obtaining the opinions of 30 experts by using Delphi survey technique. The main driving factors of development were investigated in 9 areas and 50 factors were identified. In the second stage, using the cross-impact matrix, the identified factors were scored and completed by 30 experts, senior experts and specialists who were well-informed about the province's development issues. In the third stage, by using MICMAC software, the most key effective factors in the regional development of this province were identified. The results showed that among the 50 main variables, 14 variables, which had the highest score, were the key variables driving regional development in Ardabil province. Drawing the attention of planners and executive agents of the province to main roads, changes in the management style of the province, the transit network, and reforming the planning of the province can enhance the prosperity of people in Ardabil province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Arabic Language Sciences & Literature / Maǧallaẗ ʻUlūm Al-Luġaẗ Al-ʻArabiyyaẗ Wa-Ādābi-hā is the property of Arab Journal of Sciences & Research Publishing (AJSRP) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Purpose: In prospective life cycle assessment (pLCA), inventory models represent a future state of a production system and therefore contain assumptions about future developments. Scientific quality should be ensured by using foresight methods for handling these future assumptions during inventory modelling. We present a stepwise approach for integrating future scenario development into inventory modelling for pLCA studies. Methods: A transdisciplinary research method was used to develop the SIMPL approach for scenario-based inventory modelling for pLCA. Our interdisciplinary team of LCA and future scenario experts developed a first draft of the approach. Afterwards, 112 LCA practitioners tested the approach on prospective case studies in group work projects in three courses on pLCA. Lessons learned from application difficulties, misunderstandings and feedback were used to adapt the approach after each course. After the third course, reflection, discussion and in-depth application to case studies were used to solve the remaining problems of the approach. Ongoing courses and this article are intended to bring the approach into a broader application. Results and discussion: The SIMPL approach comprises adaptations and additions to the LCA goal and scope phase necessary for prospective inventory modelling, particularly the prospective definition of scope items in reference to a time horizon. Moreover, three iterative steps for combined inventory modelling and scenario development are incorporated into the inventory phase. Step A covers the identification of relevant inventory parameters and key factors, as well as their interrelations. In step B, future assumptions are made, by either adopting them from existing scenarios or deriving them from the available information, in particular by integrating expert and stakeholder knowledge. Step C addresses the combination of assumptions into consistent scenarios using cross-consistency assessment and distinctness-based selection. Several iterations of steps A–C deliver the final inventory models. Conclusion: The presented approach enables pLCA practitioners to systematically integrate future scenario development into inventory modelling. It helps organize possible future developments of a technology, product or service system, also with regard to future developments in the social, economic and technical environment of the technology. Its application helps to overcome implicit bias and ensures that the resulting assessments are consistent, transparently documented and useful for drawing practically relevant conclusions. The approach is also readily applicable by LCA practitioners and covers all steps of prospective inventory modelling. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background and Purpose: The curriculum design underwent chronological pattern adjustment globally; however, the alterations are heavily contextualized. Therefore, this article is aimed to understand how futuristic curriculum design is perceived in South East Asia (SEA). The understanding of how futuristic curriculum design is perceived in the past is achieved through retrospective examination of published documents. After identifying past trends, anticipation from historical trends refer to a systematic projection of how the curriculum would be constructed for the future generation in the SEA region. Methodology: This study presents an in-depth bibliometric analysis and visual scientific mapping of 2733 published documents in a reputable database. To examine how a futuristic curriculum is regarded throughout time, temporal, geographical, institutional, partnership and keyword mapping were quantitively analyzed. The succession of events in the past and the emerging keywords visible in the present were then qualitatively assessed in order to anticipate what is viewed as future curriculum in SEA. Findings: According to the findings, the design of the futuristic curriculum has changed since the 1980s in terms of 1) centricity, 2) measured dimensions, 3) technological advances to support the 4) learning dynamics between internalization, regionalization and localization. Based on past and current trends, it is anticipated that curriculum design for the future will be 1) centered on an individual as a unit of a larger society, 2) focuses on measuring the tangible and intangible one's performances using indicators by benefitting the technologically advanced 3) seamless and self-regulated learning. Contributions: The findings and recommendations of this article serves as the baseline evidences in curriculum design in SEA education ecosystem to inform pedagogy and policy by exploring new areas of research and fostering the evidence-based knowledge in education. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Revista Venezolana de Gerencia (RVG) is the property of Revista de Filosofia-Universidad del Zulia and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The entanglement of power relations with the interactions of societies and political-spatial units over fresh water resources is in the field of hydro politics. Those rivers that cross international borders or its different parts are located in the territory of several countries, have had more frequency in hydro political researches. The purpose of this article, which is of a practical nature, is to explain the possible scenarios for the future hydro political relations of the border and joint rivers of Iran and Iraq. The research methodology is descriptive- analytical. The data needed for the research has been collected by library and field method (interview and questionnaire) and analyzed using FCOPRAS, FSOARA, SAW models and Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the research showed that out of 31 possible situations related to seven scenario models with strong and likely compatibility, the situations that describe the future hydro political relations of the border and common rivers of Iran and Iraq as critical, the most possible situations are in they take. Therefore, the future situation of the hydro political relations of the border and joint rivers of Iran and Iraq has become critical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Business regulation is the norms, standards, principles and rules, and their enforcement governs commerce. Firms need to be aware of the potential impacts of regulation on their business models, anticipate changes in the regulatory landscape, and adapt their business models accordingly. This article surveys seven archetypes of regulation and, from that, identifies six key regulatory trajectories affecting business model innovation. The article offers a 2-by-2 model to assist managers in coping with business model innovation reactions to both negative and positive regulatory effects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The area of interest is future business model innovation in Society 5.0. This is important as the transition from Society 4.0 to Society 5.0 is happening at an exponential pace driven by the Metaverse. Thus, the research question is: how should companies think and do business model innovation in the Society 5.0 / Metaverse space? The method is conceptual, where the business model characteristics of Society 1.0 to 4.0 are empirically stated for inductive arguments for equivalent characteristics of Society 5.0. This is framed with Society 5.0 theory, Metaverse theory, and Osterwalder and Pigneur's nine business model building blocks from their iconic Business Model Canvas (BMC). The contribution is a framework cross-tabulating Society 1.0 to Society 5.0 with the nine BMC elements. Finally, a discussion is provided with findings and implications for managers regarding business model innovation, new businesses, outcome logic, ecospheres, and currencies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article proposes a conceptual framework for analysing future business model innovation scenarios. It also introduces the special issue "The Future of Business Model Innovation: Core Themes and Pivotal Technologies." Drawing on existing knowledge, the article identifies two key dimensions that will shape the boundaries and directions of business model innovation in the near to mid-term future. Thus, this article frames the contributions of the special issue to provide a starting point for academics and practitioners seeking to engage in the field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is need to better understand the trends and future challenges influencing the marine and coastal environments and identify the opportunities to develop innovative sustainability-oriented solutions to address these. Alongside mainstream decision support tools used in environmental management and conservation sciences, foresight techniques provide comprehensive and well-rounded information and knowledge about likely developments in the long-term future. This study uses a horizon scanning exercise to explore emerging signals and trends of future developments and innovation for the sustainable development of the blue economy looking towards 2030. It derives a series of global developments, challenges and opportunities relating to the blue economy from a review of high-level international reports and studies. Through a workshop conducted with 29 scientists and researchers based in maritime universities in six countries in Europe, the study identifies and prioritizes emerging signals and trends considered of high impact for a sustainability transition. The outputs include a synthesis of 11 global developments in the blue economy and 7 cross-cutting trends and trend projections. These may be valuable to marine scientists as a source of inspiration for a future research agenda or can be used as evidence for decision- and policymakers to deal with future uncertainties about the growth of the blue economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Duzce University Institute of Social Sciences / Düzce Üniversitesi Sosyal Bilimler Dergisi is the property of Duzce University Journal of Social Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Central Asian Economic Review is the property of Narxoz University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The article deals with the subject of the analysis of shaping and developing a professional career with the use of foresight methods and tools. The main goal set by the authors was to discuss the assumptions of the developed foresight research methodology, aimed at application in the context of the future labor market. The article reviews and briefly characterizes selected foresight methods that were used during construction and applied in the designed methodology. In addition, the work also shows how the proposed methodology was implemented in a practical tool supporting the work of career counselors and academic teachers during workshops aimed at building a vision of the future of the labor market and other selected research areas. The tool is in the form of an Internet application that enables group and individual work, as well as a tool for individual use, for the purpose of analysing the conditions of individual career paths and personal development of students and graduates of higher education institutions. This tool is also intended to support young people in the process of creating various scenarios of professional development. The methodology was developed as part of the international project “ IT system supporting higher education and career development using the foresight methodology (FORhesIT)”, implemented with the financial support of the European Economic Area funds.

This article analyzes the problem of construction images of the future at the level of individual and public consciousness. The article substantiates the position that the images of the future depend on many factors immanently present in the socio-cultural reality. They are determined by the collective understanding of the historical past, the type of the prevailing picture of the world (mythological, religious, scientific), affect the prospects for the development of society and the behavior of people in the present. The authors pay attention to the meaning of the modus of the image of the future – positive or negative. A positive image of the future contributes to the progressive upward development of society, a negative image of the future generates pessimism of public consciousness, apocalyptic worldview. The relevance of this study is due to the specifics of the development of modern society. The escalation of changes, the increase in uncertainty and risks of the development of society actualizes the problem of determining the prospects for its development. The image of the future as a holistic view of the possibilities of society in the near and distant future sets researchers the task of studying this image, determining the optimal technologies for its construction that meet the needs of modern society. In accordance with this, the following purpose of the article is stated – to reveal the meaning of the concept «image of the future» in determining the prospects for the development of society and culture, to identify technologies adequate to modern reality for its construction. Research methods: analysis, synthesis and theoretical generalization. The article consistently analyzes scientists' ideas about the content of the concept of «image of the future», discusses the most important technologies for construction the future. The article substantiates the idea that modern prognostic research has made the transition from linear to nonlinear strategies for understanding the future and focuses on technologies for constructing the future, complementary to the nonlinear understanding of the dynamics of modern society and culture. Results. It is proved that modern science moves from the linear-reflective concept of understanding the image of the future to its nonlinear design interpretation. The most important technologies of designing the future are design and planning, emphasizing the role of the subjective factor in the implementation of promising opportunities of the future

The subject of the study is the process of reindustrialization in the old industrial region, where the main development resources are preserved, but the activity level of innovative processes is insufficient.The purpose of the study is the possibility of applying foresight methods in the implementation of neoindustrialization projects in the region.The methodology includes a monographic study of the industrialization processes dynamics, a comparative analysis of procedures for changing the structure of industrial production, and a foresight conducting methodology.The main result of the study is the substantiation of the choice of the most effective method of applying foresight, as well as the construction of a reindustrialization roadmap on the example of the Voronezh region. The application of these results is possible in other territorial entities (region, municipal unit) involved in the implementation of foresight projects for the development of industry.Prospects: research development - creation of a model methodology for the use of foresights in the implementation of large-scale complex projects at the regional level.Conclusions: the use of foresight in determining the prospects for the revival of the high-tech industry will help to increase the efficiency of decisions to attract resources to the development of priority benchmark, industrial production.

The present study was conducted with the aim of scenario planning of the future of strategic agility in the Ministry of Sports and Youth of the Islamic Republic of Iran through using future research. The method used in this research is scenario-based planning, which is designed and performed in eight steps. The method of data collection in this qualitative study was based on interview, expert panel and Delphi survey. Twenty experts with specialized knowledge or practical experience were selected as the participants of the research through using snowball sampling. In the first part, acceleration to affairs and processes, the application of new managerial competencies, innovative and agile organizational structure, the use of emerging technologies, and the existence of a system of encouragement and punishment based on strategic agility were identified as key drivers. In the second part, it identifies and describes possible and compatible scenarios based on the drivers and related uncertainties, and it was found that out of the two proposed scenarios, only one scenario is in a promising situation. According to this scenario, by increasing the speed of the affairs and processes, the use of new managerial competencies, agile organizational structure, emerging technologies, and the existence of an incentive system, we can see the improvement of strategic agility in the Ministry of Sports and Youth.